Latest Gurus of Gold / First Look From the Berlin Fest / I Nominate / Behind the Scenes of First Man

We're back on this last Thursday in January...

LATEST GURUS OF GOLD

The Gurus of Gold have begun the transition from predicting Oscar nominees to predicting Oscar winners.  Editor Ray Pride tasked all of the Gurus with predicting winners in eight categories: Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Score and Original Song.  

For what it's worth, my number one choices in each category are the overall leaders after all the Gurus that responded were counted.  Here's Anne Thompson's analysis from Indiewire on her take about the effect of the SAGs on Oscar.

It should be noted that the poll was conducted prior to winners being announced at the SAG Awards this past weekend.  Wins there by Rami Malek and Emily Blunt could change the landscape.

Here's the latest Gurus.

FIRST LOOK AT BERLIN FEST TITLE

One of the first titles from the Berlin Film Fest to draw my eye as a potential TFF #46 title was Agnieska Holland's Mr. Jones (formerly Gareth Jones).  For those who really follow this space closely you know that I had this film on my radar last year as a possible choice for TFF #45.

Holland has some history with TFF and Berlin usually provides a couple of titles to each year's Telluride lineup.

Now, Variety has exclusively premiered a first look at the a clip from the film and further, the clip has become available on YouTube  and is included here:

The Variety story is linked here.

 Here's some of the description of the film from the Variety story:

"Mr. Jones tells the little known story of Gareth Jones, an ambitious young Welsh journalist who travelled to the Soviet Union in 1933, and discovered the appalling reality behind the myth of a communist "utopia"".

I NOMINATE

Every year some film or films emerge from the Sundance Film Fest that catch the eye of the critical community and inevitably there is speculation that one or two of those might end up on the Telluride list .

As readers of this space know, that's not impossible but it is exceedingly rare.  In terms of feature films, the last to do it was Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea in 2016.  Prior to that it had been Lone Scherfig's 2009 Carey Mulligan starrer An Education.

Despite the rarity, though, there will be a few of the Sundance titles that some will think have a shot.  So...despite the fact that it's phenomenally unusual...I hereby nominate Scott Z. Burns The Report.  The film has been well received in Utah and stars current Oscar nominee Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) and focuses on the investigation into CIA "enhanced interrogation" techniques following 9/11.  Amazon Studios nabbed the distribution rights this week for a solid $14 million.  Reportedly Amazon is looking to position the film for a fall release.

Sounds like a fine addition for TFF #46 to me.

Here's Variety's report of the film's acquisition.

BEHIND THE SCENES OF FIRST MAN

SlashFilm posted a new behind-the-scenes clip of Damian Chazelle's First Man last week.  he clip focuses on what Chazelle and crew was able to do using the actual resources of NASA as they put together the film about the first lunar landing and the path that Neil Armstrong took on his way to becoming the first human to walk on the lunar surface.

Here's the clip from YouTube:

In addition, here is the coverage SlashFilm provided with the posting of the clip.

First Man is available to stream now.

That's your Thursday edition of MTFB.  It will return on Monday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Screen Daily's Festival Temptations (Continued) / SAG Awards Handed Out Last Night / Ralph Fiennes' The White Crow Has a Trailer / Interviews / Michel LeGrand 1932-2019

Good Monday everyone.  Welcome back from your weekend...


SCREEN DAILY'S FESTIVAL TEMPTATIONS (CONTINUED)

In my last post I began looking at Screen Daily's series about films "to tempt festival directors".  That post focused on their take on Irish and UK films that might be chosen for film festivals from Cannes all the way to Venice, Toronto and of course Telluride as well as others.

Today we look at their lists for both the U.S., Canada and Latin America and then European selections.

Among the films from U.S., Canada and Latin America that seem like TFF #46 possibilities are:

Coming Home Again dir: Wayne Wang
The Irishman dir: Martin Scorsese (probably more a wish than a possibility)
The Last Thing He Wanted dir: Dee Rees
Little Women dir: Greta Gerwig
Ema dir: Pablo Larrain


The complete post for U.S., Canada and Latin America is linked here.


Here's are films from the Screen Daily European list of tempting titles that seem Telluride friendly:

Ahmed dir: The Dardennes Brothers
Bergman Island dir: Mia Hansen-Love
The County dir: Grimur Hakonarson
Pinocchio dir: Matteo Garrone

The complete article for Europe is linked here.


SAG AWARDS HANDED OUT LAST NIGHT

Winners from last night's Screen Actors Guild from last night:

Best Cast: Black Panther
Actress: Glenn Close/The Wife
Actor: Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody
Supporting Actress: Emily Blunt/A Quiet Place
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali/Green Book
Stunt Cast: Black Panther

Five performances from TFF #45 films were nominated but none came away with a trophy: Colman, Stone and Weisz for The Favourite and McCarthy and Grant for Can You Ever Forgive Me?


RALPH FIENNES' THE WHITE CROW HAS A TRAILER

Here's a trailer for director Ralph Fiennes under seen TFF #45 entrant The White Crow which tells the story of ballet dancer supreme Rudolf Nuryev:

Trailer posted via YouTube.

I have also linked an accompanying story from Deadline.com here.

The White Crow currently has no U.S. release announced. Sony Pictures Classics has the film for U.S. distribution.

INTERVIEWS

Linked here is an Entertainment Weekly interview with Oscar nominee Melissa McCarthy (who was lovely when I talked to her in Telluride) for her role in Marielle Heller's Can You Ever Forgive Me?  The interview was conducted by Joey Nolfi.

Here's that link.

Additionally, here's a link to Kris Tapley's Variety/Playback podcast with writer/director Jason Reitman (The Front Runner) who is making a lot of news in the last week as it was announced that Reitman will direct the next iteration of the Ghostbusters franchise.

Here's the link to that podcast.

 MICHEL LEGRAND 1932-2019

I felt I needed to write a quick note on the passing of musician/composer Michel Legrand.  Legrand was a Tribute recipient in 2007.  He won three Oscars for his musical additions to Yentl, The Thomas Crown Affair and The Summer of 42.  He was nominated an additional six times.

One of the most electrifying musical moments I ever saw on television was a duet with Legrand and Ray Charles on some talk show probably in the 70's sometime.  It was breathtaking to watch the two master from very different backgrounds and approaches play off one another.  Thrilling.

Legrand was 86.

Here is his obituary from The Guardian.

That's the MTFB for Monday, Jan. 28, 2019.  I'll have more on Thursday... (expecting a link to a new Gurus of Gold that will turn to predicting this year's Oscar winners)

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Oscar Nomination Analysis / Experts Predict Oscar Winners / Film Fest Spec from Screen Daily

Good Thursday.  Here's your latest from MTFB


OSCAR NOMINATION ANALYSIS

Total nominations for TFF #45 films-34 which exceeds the average of 27-28 since I started tracking TFF Oscar nominations.

Plus one from TFF #44...the Original Screenplay nomination for Paul Schrader for First Reformed.

For the record I finished the morning at 78% accuracy...which is right at my normal average.

For Best Pic I was 8 of 8 (because I had 10 picked).

Other perfect categories for me this year: Best Actress, Animated Feature, Foreign Language Film and Production Design.  My worst category this year-Film Editing where I was a measly 2 of 5.  Overall I was 95/122 for the 78%.  In eight categories the film I had pegged as the #6 film ended up in the nominees...so, you know, close.

Biggest shockers to me...

No Bradley Cooper for Directing A Star Is Born.  
No Won't You Be My Neighbor for Documentary.  
No Score nomination for First Man.  
Marina de Tavira getting in Supporting Actress for Roma.  
The love for Buster Scruggs which I'm not sure anyone saw coming. 
No Film Editing noms for Roma, Star or First Man

A couple of added points here that I didn't touch on Tuesday's special post...

The max number of total Oscars that TFF films could win is 18 as there are at least one TFF film nominated in 18 of the 24 categories.  Six categories have no TFF film nominated at all and thus cannot produce a TFF winner.  They are Best Actor, Animated Feature, Original Score, Original Song, Animated Short and Documentary Short.

Of course, that total is unlikely.  Below I have linked to some of the early predictions about possible winners in each category and what that suggests might be the total trophy take on Oscar night, Feb. 24th.

EXPERTS PREDICT OSCAR WINNERS

I have linked here the early Oscar winner predictions from experts with their view of which TFF films win what Oscars on Feb. 24th

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Scott's predicted TFF winners include:

Roma (4): Best Picture, Direction, Foreign Language Film, Cinematography

First Man (1): Visual Effects

For a total of five wins.  Scott foresees The Favourite not winning from any of its field leading (tied with Roma) 10 nominations.

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Sasha's home page right hand column seems to point the way to here early Oscar thinking and it has the following stabs at TFF winners:

Roma (3): Direction, Cinematography, Foreign Language Film

First Reformed (TFF #44-1) Original Screenplay

First Man (2): Sound Editing, Visual Effects

Total of six wins.

Gold Derby's Odds

Roma (4): Best Picture (odds are tied with A Star Is Born), Direction, Cinematography, Foreign Language Film

The Favourite (3): Original Screenplay, Costumes, Production Design

First Man (1): Sound Editing

Total of eight wins.

FILM FEST SPEC FROM SCREEN DAILY

Renee Zellweger in Judy via IMDb

I have been tracking a series of articles from Screen Daily that they have labeled "Films to Tempt Festival Directors" in an attempt to get an early line on some titles that might be on the TFF #46 lineup.

The latest installment focuses on films from the UK and Ireland.  It's a list of 13 films and among them, these are the titles that standout to me as potential players at Telluride:

Untitled Girls Film directed by Sarah Gavron

Greed directed by Michael Winterbottom

Judy directed by  Rupert Goold

Radioactive directed by Marjane Satrapi

Sorry We Missed You directed by Ken Loach

The complete post from Screen Daily is linked here.

That's your MTFB for this Thursday.  I'll have more on Monday.  Have a great weekend.

And the Nominees Are...

AND THE NOMINEES ARE...

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced the nominees for the 91st Academy Awards this morning and here they are:

BEST PICTURE

1) Roma

2) Green Book

3) A Star Is Born

4) BlacKkKlansman

5) Black Panther

6) Vice

7) Bohemian Rhapsody

8) The Favourite

BEST DIRECTION

1) Alfonso Cuaron/Roma

2) Pawel Pawlikowski/Cold War

3) Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman

4) Adam McKay/Vice

5) Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite

BEST ACTRESS

1) Glenn Close/The Wife

2) Olivia Colman/The Favourite

3) Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born

4) Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me?

5) Yalitza Aparicio/Roma

BEST ACTOR

1) Christian Bale/Vice

2) Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody

3) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born

4) Viggo Mortensen/Green Book

5) Willem Dafoe/At Eternity's Gate

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk

2) Rachel Weisz/The Favourite

3) Emma Stone/The Favourite

4) Amy Adams/Vice

5) Marina De Tavira/Roma

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Green Book

2) Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me?

3) Sam Elliott/A Star Is Born

4) Adam Driver/BlacKkKlansman

5) Sam Rockwell/Vice

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Green Book

2) The Favourite

3) Roma

4) Vice

5) First Reformed

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) BlacKkKlansman

2) If Beale Street Could Talk

3) Can You Ever Forgive Me?

4) A Star Is Born

5) The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse

2) Incredibles 2

3) Isle of Dogs

4) Marai

5) Ralph Breaks the Internet

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Hale County This Morning-This Evening

2) RBG

3) Free Solo

4) Minding the Gap

5) Of Fathers and Sons

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Roma

2) Cold War

3) Capernaum

4) Shoplifters

5) Never Look Away

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Roma

2) A Star Is Born

3) Never Look Away

4) Cold War

5) The Favourite

COSTUMES

1) The Favourite

2) Mary Poppins Returns

3) Black Panther

4) Mary Queen of Scots

5) The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

FILM EDITING

1) Green Book

2) Bohemian Rhapsody

3) Vice

4) BlacKkKlansman

5) The Favourite

Maybe: Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Vice

2) Border

3) Mary Queen of Scots

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) If Beale Street Could Talk

2) BlacKkKlansman

3) Mary Poppins Returns

4) Isle of Dogs

5) Black Panther

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Shallow/A Star Is Born

2) All the Stars/Black Panther

3) I'll Fight/RBG

4) When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings/The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

5) Where Lost Things Go/Mary Poppins Return

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Favourite

2) Mary Poppins Returns

3) First Man

4) Black Panther

5) Roma

SOUND EDITING

1) First Man

2) A Quiet Place

3) Black Panther

4) Roma

5) Bohemian Rhapsody

SOUND MIXING

1) A Star Is Born

2) First Man

3) Bohemian Rhapsody

4) Roma

5) Black Panther

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) First Man

2) Christopher Robin

3) Ready Player One

4) Avengers: Infinity War

5) Solo: A Star Wars Story

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Bao

2) One Small Step

3) Weekends

4) Late Afternoon

5) Animal Behavior

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Period. End of Sentence

2) End Game

3)A Night at the Garden

4) Lifeboat

5) Black Sheep

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Mother

2) Skin

3) Detainment

4) Fauve

5) Marguerite

Telluride films that were nominated were:

Roma (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Aparicio), Supporting Actress (De Tavira), Foreign Language Film, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing

The Favourite (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Colman), Supporting Actress (Stone and Weisz), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Costumes

Roma and The Favourite were tied with the most nominations and the only films in double digit nominations.

First Man (4): Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects (Man, how could have been so off about First Man in every possible way.  I thought it was headed for at least eight nominations this morning...and, of course, still thought it could stretch into the Best Picture race...)

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3): Actress (McCarthy), Supporting Actor (Grant), Adapted Screenplay

Cold War (3): Foreign Language Film, Direction, Cinematography

Free Solo (1): Best Documentary

Shoplifters (1): Foreign Language Film

Border (1): Makeup/Hair

Fauve (1): Live Action Short

Total nominations for TFF #45 films-34 which exceeds the average of 27-28 since I started tracking TFF Oscar nominations.

Plus one from TFF #44...the Original Screenplay nomination for Paul Schrader for First Reformed.

For the record I finished the morning at 78% accuracy...which is right at my normal average.

For Best Pic I was 8 of 8 (because I had 10 picked).

Other perfect categories for me this year: Best Actress, Animated Feature, Foreign Language Film and Production Design.  My worst category this year-Film Editing where I was a measly 2 of 5.  Overall I was 95/122 for the 78%.  In eight categories the film I had pegged as the #6 film ended up in the nominees...so, you know, close.

Biggest shockers to me...

No Bradley Cooper for Directing A Star Is Born.  
No Won't You Be My Neighbor for Documentary.  
No Score nomination for First Man.  
Marina de Tavira getting in Supporting Actress for Roma.  
The love for Buster Scruggs which I'm not sure anyone saw coming. 
No Film Editing noms for Roma, Star or First Man

I'll have more on Thursday...

Final Oscar Nomination Predictions / Predictions from Oscar Experts / Green Book Wins PGA / And Looking Ahead-Berlin

Welcome to MTFB.  It's the day before Oscar nominations are announced...less than 24 hours from now...


FINAL (PROBABLY) OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

Well, it's that time.  Five months after the Telluride Film Festival, we're on the brink of knowing how The Academy has decided to honor the films of 2018...or at least, which films, performers and crafts people are still in the running for the film world's top honor.

What follows are my predictions in all 24 competitive Oscar categories.  A couple of notes before we dive in.  My success rate at nominations over the last few years has been between 75-80%.  Past that statistic, I find that the film/performance that I have listed at the #6 (in the categories with the traditional five nominees) makes it onto the list of nominees in about 75% of the cases where I have missed a nominee in a category.  In terms of sheer numbers, that means that if this year continues those trends , there are likely to be only 5-10 nominees across the 100+ total that I don't have predicted outright or as the first possibility after those five.

That said, it's such a weird, shifting year (Green Book wins PGA for example...see below) that the percentages could be way, way off.

Enough disclaimers...here are your predicted Oscar nominees for 2018 (Telluride films are Bold):

BEST PICTURE

1) Roma
2) Green Book
3) A Star Is Born
4) BlacKkKlansman
5) Black Panther
6) Vice
7) Bohemian Rhapsody
8) First Man
9) The Favourite
10) If Beale Street Could Talk

Maybe: First Reformed, Cold War

BEST DIRECTION

1) Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
2) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born
3) Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman
4) Adam McKay/Vice
5) Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite
6) Peter Farrelly/Green Book

Maybe: Pawel Pawlikowski/Cold War, Ryan Coogler/Black Panther

BEST ACTRESS

1) Glenn Close/The Wife
2) Olivia Colman/The Favourite
3) Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born
4) Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5) Yalitza Aparicio/Roma
6) Emily Blunt/Mary Poppins Returns

Maybe: Viola Davis/Widows, Joanna Kulig/Cold War

BEST ACTOR

1) Christian Bale/Vice
2) Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody
3) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born
4) Viggo Mortensen/Green Book
5) John David Washington/BlacKkKlansman
6) Ethan Hawke/First Reformed

Maybe: Willem Dafoe/At Eternity's Gate, Ryan Gosling/First Man

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk
2) Rachel Weisz/The Favourite
3) Emma Stone/The Favourite
4) Amy Adams/Vice
5) Claire Foy/First Man
6) Margot Robbie/Mary, Queen of Scots

Maybe: Emily Blunt/A Quiet Place, Nicole Kidman/Boy Erased

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Green Book
2) Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3) Sam Elliott/A Star Is Born
4) Adam Driver/BlacKkKlansman
5) Timothee Chalamet/Beautiful Boy
6) Sam Rockwell/Vice

Maybe: Michael B. Jordan/Black Panther


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Green Book
2) The Favourite
3) Roma
4) Vice
5) Eighth Grade
6) First Reformed

Maybe: Cold War, A Quiet Place

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) BlacKkKlansman
2) If Beale Street Could Talk
3) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4) A Star Is Born
5) Leave No Trace
6) Black Panther

Maybe: The Death of Stalin, Crazy Rich Asians, First Man

ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse
2) Incredibles 2
3) Isle of Dogs
4) Marai
5) Ralph Breaks the Internet
6) Early Man

Maybe: The Grinch


DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Won't You Be My Neighbor
2) RBG
3) Free Solo
4) Minding the Gap
5) Shirkers
6) Three Identical Strangers

Maybe: Hale County This Morning, This Evening

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Roma
2) Cold War
3) Capernaum
4) Shoplifters
5) Never Look Away
6) Burning

Maybe: The Guilty

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Roma

2) A Star Is Born

3) First Man

4) Cold War

5) The Favourite

6) Black Panther

Maybe: If Beale Street Could Talk

COSTUMES

1) The Favourite

2) Mary Poppins Returns

3) Black Panther

4) Mary Queen of Scots

5) Bohemian Rhapsody

6) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Maybe: BlacKkKlansman Vice, If Beale Street Could Talk,  

FILM EDITING

1) A Star Is Born

2) Roma

3) Vice

4) BlacKkKlansman

5) First Man

6) The Favourite

Maybe: Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Vice

2) Black Panther

3) Mary Queen of Scots

4) Bohemian Rhapsody

Maybe: Border, Stan and Ollie, Suspiria

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) If Beale Street Could Talk

2) First Man

3) Mary Poppins Returns

4) Isle of Dogs

5) Black Panther

6) BlacKkKlansman

Maybe: A Quiet Place, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Shallow/A Star Is Born

2) All the Stars/Black Panther

3) I'll Fight/RBG

4) Girl in the Movies/Dumplin'

5) Trip a Little Light Fantastic/Mary Poppins Returns

6) Where Lost Things Go/Mary Poppins Return

Maybe: Revelation/Boy Erased

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Favourite

2) Mary Poppins Returns

3) First Man

4) Black Panther

5) Roma

6) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Maybe: BlacKkKlansman

SOUND EDITING

1) First Man

2) A Quiet Place

3) Black Panther

4) Roma

5) Mary Poppins Returns

6) Ready Player One

Possible: A Star Is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody, Annihilation

SOUND MIXING

1) A Star Is Born

2) First Man

3) Mary Poppins Returns

4) Roma

5) A Quiet Place

6) Black Panther

Maybe: Bohemian Rhapsody

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) First Man

2) Black Panther

3) Ready Player One

4) Avengers: Infinity War

5) Mary Poppins Returns

6) Solo: A Star Wars Story

Maybe: Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Bao

2) Age of Sail

3) Bird Karma

4) Late Afternoon

5) Animal Behavior

6) Weekends

Maybe: Bilby, Pepe Le Morse

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Period. End of Sentence

2) End Game

3) Zion

4) My Dead Dad's Porno Tapes

5) Lifeboat

6) Women of the Gulag

Maybe: Black Sheep

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Caroline

2) Skin

3) Detainment

4) Fauve

5) Marguerite

6) Susotazs

Maybe: Mother

Sooooo...if I'm 100% accurate tomorrow morning (and as I said above, I should hit between 75-80%) that means the following:

Roma leads all films with 10 nominations and is the only film with double digit nominations.  Telluride films earn 37 total nominations...which in terms of what normally happens...the average is 27-28 nominations, would mark 2018 as a stunning year for the Oscar success for films from TFF.  

The nominations total is largely fueled by solid expectations for craft nominations especially for Roma, The Favourite and First Man.  Here's the TFF film breakdown:

Roma (10): Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay, Foreign Language Film, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing

The Favourite (9): Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress (2), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Production Design

First Man (9): Picture, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Film Editing, Score, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects (should First Man miss on the Best Picture nomination and hit eight total nominees, it will establish a new record for a film with most nominations without getting a Best Picture bid...Mary Poppins Returns could do the same thing)

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3) Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay

Cold War (2): Foreign Language Film, Cinematography

And single nominations for:

Shoplifters: Foreign Language Film

Free Solo: Documentary Feature

Caroline: Live Action Short

Fauve: Live Action Short

Other non-Telluride big players:

A Star Is Born (9) Including Picture, Direction, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay

Black Panther (8): Including Picture, Score and Song

Mary Poppins Returns (8): Including Actress, Score and Song

BlacKkKlansman (7): Including Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay

Vice (7): Including Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay

Green Book (4): Including Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay

If Beale Street Could Talk (4): Including Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Score

Bohemian Rhapsody (3): Including Picture, Actor and Costumes

BUT DON'T TAKE MY WORD FOR IT: PREDICTIONS FROM OSCAR EXPERTS

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch

Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience

GREEN BOOK WINS PGA

Shaking things up as we get ready to have the Oscar nominees revealed to us tomorrow morning was Green Book's somewhat surprise win as Best Picture from The Producers Guild of America.  It seemed to me that most pundits thought it was a likely showdown between A Star Is Born and Roma.

Green Book's win caused quite the uproar on Film Twitter Saturday and Sunday and also resulted in a number of folks in the biz to proclaim that the Peter Farrelly film was now the new front runner for the Best Picture Oscar supplanting both ASIB and Roma.

I'm not there yet.  I still lean toward a Roma win on Feb. 24th but, as you know, that could change.

Oscar voters begin voting for the winners on Feb. 12th and runs through Feb. 19th.

AND LOOKING AHEAD-BERLIN

The Berlin International Film Festival is set to open on Feb. 7th and runs through the 17th.  Berlin almost always provides a film or two that make it onto the TFF lineup on Labor Day weekend.  Meanwhile, Sundance opens on Thursday and will almost certainly serve as an "excluder" in as far as potential Telluride film choices are concerned.  It almost always does.

Berlin's full lineup is linked here from The Hollywood Reporter

Looking at their announced films one might speculate about possible Telluride plays based on previous TFF appearances and expected release dates.  So...put on your list the following as possible TFF #46 selections:

Opening Night Film The Kindness of Strangers from director Lone Scherfig

Francois Ozon's By the Grace of God

Agnieszka Holland's Mr. Jones (last mentioned in this space under the title Gareth Jones)

Zhang Yimou's One Second

Fatih Akin's The Golden Glove

Agnes Varda's Varda by Agnes

That's your MTFB for today.  I'm planning to have a Special Post up tomorrow mid-morning after the Oscar nominations announcements with the list of nominees and some analysis about Telluride films and the Oscar race in general.  Should be a hoot.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG