Venice Schedule Revealed / Saturday Night Poster and Trailer / Will Cuaron Return to Telluride? / Grand Tour Like Oh Canada? / Will Rasoulof Make It to Telluride?

VENICE SCHDULE REVEALED

The Venice Film Festival revealed its official screening schedule this morning.  That's of note to Telluride watchers as films scheduled early in that fest could potentially be able to cross the Atlantic and get to the Rockies in time for screenings at TFF.  Films scheduled after the first three days of Venice are essentially off the table.

Scheduled early enough to come to Telluride and that seem likely are:

Separated/Morris (8/29)

Disclaimer/Cuaron (8/29)

Maria/Larrain (8/29)

One to One: John and Yoko/Macdoanld and Rice-Edwards (8/30)

Babygirl/Reijn (8/30)

Notable films that look like they're scheduled too late to make T-ride:

The Order/Kurzel

The Brutalist/Corbet

The Room Next Door/Almodovar

Queer/Guadagnino

Joker: Foile A Deux

The complete Venice schedule is linked here.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO PLAY TELLURIDE

Matt Belloni writing in his "What I'm Hearing" newsletter for Puck.com dropped this on Friday:

"...today’s trailer for Jason Reitman’s SNL origin story, Saturday Night, got me unexpectedly excited for fall festival movies. It’s playing Telluride, which I don’t attend, and TIFF..."

There's no sourcing on the statement but it seems pretty definitive.  I'm looking for it to be confirmed as soon as Toronto announces its last set of titles this week.

Reitman's catalogue is replete with films that played T-ride starting with Juno in 2007.  Also at Telluride: Up in the Air (2009), Labor Day (2013) and The Front Runner (2018).  

Here's the poster and trailer:

WILL CUARON RETURN TO TELLURIDE?

Last Friday Toronto announced its Primetime Section devoted to television series that they will feature as a part of TIFF 2024.  Among those listed was Alfonso Cuaron's mini-series for Apple+ titled Disclaimer.  Why we note it here is that the show is listed as a Canadian premiere.  That raised some eyebrows.  Could that mean a play of some of the series at TFF #51?

It's possible.  TFF has programmed television/series in the past famously including Twin Peaks in 1989, Red Riding in 2009 and recently (TFF #49) Russia 1985-1999.  So it's not unprecedented that Telluride might be programming it.  Also, Cuaron having screened both Gravity and Roma at past TFFs doesn't hurt its chances.

Here's the description from IMDb:

"Blanchett plays Catherine Ravenscroft, a successful and respected television documentary journalist whose work has been built on revealing the concealed transgressions of long-respected institutions. When an intriguing novel written by a widower, played by Kline, appears on her bedside table, she is horrified to realize she is a key character in a story that she had hoped was long buried in the past. A story that reveals her darkest secret. A secret she thought was hers alone."

Disclaimer is set to debut on Apple TV+ on Oct. 11th.  Here's the teaser from YouTube:

GRAND TOUR LIKE OH, CANADA?

It's another one of those.  Grand Tour was announced by New York without a premiere status leading me and others to believe that it would be a TFF selection.  But then, Toronto announced it as a North  American Premiere which indicates no Telluride play.  Paul Schrader's Oh, Canada is also in that same situation and I'm inclined, at least at this point, to think that both play TIFF and neither plays Telluride.

Of course, I could be wrong.

WILL RASOULOF MAKE IT TO TELLURIDE?

We're pretty sure that Mohammad Rasoulof's The Seed of the Sacred Fig will be playing at TFF #51.  What we don't know is if its writer/director will be present for the screenings.  Variety reporting on Saturday that the Iranian filmmaker who successfully fled Iran isn't sure that he'll be able to travel outside of Europe.

In the interview (linked here) Rasoulof tells Variety reporter Nick Vivarelli:

"I plan to travel to the United States for film screenings. However, since I still don’t have a passport and have to travel with the documents provided with the help of the city of Hamburg, I wonder if I’ll be able to travel outside of Europe."

I'm no expert at international travel protocols but this sounds like a serious impediment.  Nevertheless, I'll be crossing my fingers that he'll be able to find a way to make it .

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The Usual Suspects / Babylon Still Up in the Air / Armageddon Arrives in October / She Said Trailer Coming

THE USUAL SUSPECTS

Each summer around this time I take some time to check out what Telluride's "Usual Suspects" have in the pipeline that could end up on the list films named to the TFF lineup.  The process is not always predictive but there have been many times when it has.

The striking thing this year is that there seem to be fewer "Usual Suspects" projects that could be in the pipeline.  That said...

Werner Herzog-The Fire Within which world premiered at the Sheffield Doc Fest last month.  The film focuses on Katia and Maurice Krafft who were featured in Herzog's 2016 Into the Inferno.  The couple were also the subject of a documentary that premiered at Sundance earlier this year: Fire of Love.

Ken Burns- The U.S. and the Holocaust.  The three part series is set to begin screening on PBS stations on Sept. 18th which suggests to me that a Telluride showing of some and perhaps all of the episodes are screened at TFF #49.

Paul Schrader-The Master Gardener.  Schrader has been represented at Telluride many times over the years: The Card Counter, First Reformed, Adam Resurrected.  I'd normally think that Master Gardener would be a Telluride lock BUT- Schrader has been announced as the recipient of this year's Venice Film Fest's Golden Lion award for Lifetime achievement.  How Venice schedules that presentation and where in their schedule they program The Master Gardener likely will determine whether Schrader's film plays Telluride.

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu-Bardo.  There was some back and forth occurring last week as to whether the film would be playing any fall fests.  At the end of the week the notion seemed to land on "probably".  My guess is a Venice early slot followed by a jump across the Atlantic to T-ride.  Inarritu has presented Babel, Biutiful and Birdman at Telluride. He's also been in town for Cuaron's Roma and Del Toro's The Shape of Water. I am expecting, if Bardo is ready for it to be at TFF #49.

Jean Pierre and Luc Dardennes- Tori and Lokita- The film premiered at Cannes, which, if anything, bolsters the probability that it makes its way to The SHOW.  The Dardennes have made a number of appearances at TFF:  The Child, The Kid with a Bike and Two Days One Night-their last TFF film in 2014.

Sebastian Lelio-The Wonder.  Lelio has made a splash at Telluride in recent years: Gloria in 2013 and A Fantastic Woman in 2017.  The wonder is also a Netflix title, which doesn't hurt.  

Bill Pohlad-Dreamin' Wild.  Pohlad has been a supporter of Telluride as well as a producer of films that play there for a good long while: A Hidden Life, Wild, 12 Years a Slave, Into the Wild, Fur, Brokaback Mountain.  Pohlad has a couple of directing credits including Love & Mercy which did not play Telluride but did screen at the Toronto Fest.  The film is also in the Focus Features bin.  

Producers that could be represented at TFF #49 that are "Usual" as well.

Martin Scorsese-The Eternal Daughter.  Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon will not be ready for fall fests and likely wouldn't play them even if it was. However, Scorsese is often represented at Telluride in his capacity as a producer: The Card Counter, Uncut Gems, Bleed for This.  Eternal Daughter is also being distributed by A24.

Barry Jenkins-Aftersun.  Aftersun played well at Cannes winning the French Touch Prize of the Critics' Week Jury and was produced, in part, by Barry Jenkins PASTEL.  It's also distributed by A24 which doesn't hurt either.  I'm bullish on its chances to screen at TFF.

Alfonso Cuaron-Raymond and Ray.  Cuaron producing a Rodrigo Garcia directed film here (Garcia was at Telluride in 2011 with the Glenn Close starrer Albert Nobbs.  The film's distributor is AppleTV+ which was at Telluride last year with The Velvet Underground.

And a special note here.  Sort of a "Usual Suspect" Daina Oniunas-Pusic who had shorts at TFF in 2015-The Beast and 2016-Rhonna and Donna and is now directing Tuesday starring Julia Louis-Dreyfus.  And it's from A24. (shout out to Jason Osiason who tipped me to this).

 BABYLON STILL UP IN THE AIR

Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel is keeping tight tabs on the status of Damien Chazelle's Babylon.  The latest word there is that its festival fate is still up in the air and it appears to be a tussle between Chazelle and Paramount.  Ruimy writes in his July 8th post:

"At the time of this article, Paramount and Chazelle are still in disagreement over whether they should bring “Babylon” to the fall festivals."

Ruimy also reveals a ton of details about the film including its current runtime of nearly three hours and that there is buzz that the film could be rated NC-17.  The link to Jordan's story is here BUT HERE IS YOUR SPOILER ALERT!  The post is rather detailed.

ARMAGEDDON ARRIVES IN OCTOBER

The Playlist reports that Focus Features has dated  James Gray's Armageddon Time for limited release on Oct. 18th.  That dating allows for it to be a part of Telluride, Toronto and/or New York.  The film premiered at the Cannes Fest back in May.

I have felt an upturn in its chances to be a Telluride selection in the last 2-3 weeks.

The film's IMDb description is as follows:

"A deeply personal coming-of-age story about the strength of family and the generational pursuit of the American Dream."

Armageddon Time stars Jessica Chastain, Anne Hathaway, Jeremy Strong and Anthony Hopkins.  

The story from The Playlist is here.

SHE SAID TRAILER COMING

Again, looking at World of Reel reporting that Maria Schrader's She Said will likely have a trailer drop in the next couple of weeks.  The film features Carey Mulligan and Zoe Kazan starring as the true life reporters who were instrumental in revealing Harvey Weinstein's abuse.

She Said is set for a Nov. 18th release.

WOR suggests that "The Oscar campaign for Maria Schrader’s “She Said” will kickstart with the trailer being released either next week or the week after that. Then, possibly a Telluride world premiere."

The complete WOR post is linked here.

The single fly in the ointment in the film's TFF-ishness is that it's from Universal which has a sketchy TFF track record having, by my count, screened only three films there over the past 15 years:

2008-Flash of Genius

2015-Steve Jobs

2018- First Man

Still I have had it in the Ten Bets or on the list of additional possibilities since the first Bets almost three weeks ago.

Stay tuned as I will share the trailer as soon as it becomes available.

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Oscar Update: Best Original Screenplay / TFF and Top Films of 2020 Lists: Associated Press / Cuaron with Zhao

 OSCAR UPDATE: BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Original Screenplay updated since I last posted this category on  Nov. 12th.  A screenplay's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 films are indicated in Bold.

1) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (1)

2) Mank (2)

3) Minari (3)

4) Soul (4)

5) Promising Young Woman (5)

6) Judas and the Black Messiah (6)

7) Da 5 Bloods (9)

8) Never Rarely Sometimes Always (8)

9) Palm Springs (7)

10) On the Rocks (-)

Other possibles: The 40 Year Version, Sound of Metal, Ammonite

Hot: Da 5 Bloods, On the Rocks

Not: Ammonite, Palm Springs

TFF AND TOP FILMS OF 2020 LISTS: ASSOCIATED PRESS

As we approach the end of 2020 (come on Jan. 1st!), more and more outlets are naming their "Best Of" film lists for the year.  Today's list is from the Associated Press and as is the custom jere, we ask the question: "Which Telluride Films made the list?"

Here's the answer to that question from both of AP's film writers' Top 10 lists:

Lindsey Bahr:

#1 Nomadland (TFF #47)

Jake Coyle:

#1 First Cow (TFF #46)

 His Honorable Mentions include Nomadland from what would have been TFF's lineup.

Here's the link to the complete article.

CUARON WITH ZHAO

Photo from Pat Martin/Interviewmagazine.com

Interviewmagazine.com has a scintillating interview pairing posted at their website.  The interview features Oscar winning director Alfonso Cuaron interviewing almost certain future Oscar nominee Chloe Zhao, the director of Nomadland.

Both participants have been to Telluride.  Zhao with The Rider and this year...via a Drive In presentation in Los Angeles, Nomadland.  Cuaron too has made The SHOW with Gravity and Roma.

I'm pleased to pass along the link to the interview that was posted Dec. 3rd.

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Gone Like the Wind / Roma and the Oscars

Good Monday morning...


GONE LIKE THE WIND

I grabbed this photo of the festival website on Friday morning at about 1:45 Central time (11:45 Pacific)


Almost the classic movie title but more descriptive about what happened on Friday morning when passes went on sale for the 46th Telluride Film Festival (Aug. 30-Sept. 2).  Over the past few years the window for getting passes before the sale ran out of them had gotten smaller and smaller.

Hearsay suggested that passes were gone in a week in 2017 and that it took a mere two days last year.  I watched the website in real time on Friday after getting mine secured in a sweat inducing, gut wrenching, nerve stressing 10 minute window as soon as the sale went live.  and, by my estimation, all level of passes were gone in under three hours.  Acme passes were gone first, then the Festival, then the Festival level and finally the Cinephile pass.

Patron Passes were done in a separate sale that occurred in December and, though I wasn't tracking it, seemed to also happen very, very quickly.

So, I have to suspect that, again this year, many past pass holders may have been shut out and I wonder if the fest will consider changes in structures and policies between now and next year when passes go on sale.  I contemplated the same thing last year but am not aware that any changes were made for this year's sale.

One thing is certain, the festival has become insanely popular.  I was messaging a Telluride friend about this and that including the rapidity of the sellout and he suggested that the fest has gotten "too popular". 


ROMA AND THE OSCARS

Indiewire's Anne Thompson undertakes to deconstruct Roma's Best Picture loss to Green Book in the context of the film being under the wing of streaming giant Netflix in an article over this weekend.

That article is here.

Personally, I think that was one of many of the factors that people mentioned and my guess, and it's only a guess, is that it was more a perfect storm of factors:

1) People really liked Green Book

2) Yup...there's a bias against Netflix...witness the news that no less a light than Steven Spielberg appears to be spear-heading an effort to have the Academy change rules that would make Netflix change some of its practices if it wants to continue to compete for Oscars.

But don't discount these other factors...

3) The foreign language bias.  No foreign language film has ever won the big prize and "It's got its own category" goes some thinking.

4) The black and white factor...maybe not a large consideration, but I don't think you can dismiss it.

5) The style and tone.  It's slow (especially the first half) and contemplative and very, very personal. 

Maybe it was all about the top two reasons above but maybe there were other factors as well.



That's your MTFB for this Monday...more on Thursday.


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BAFTA Loves Telluride / TFF #45 Films Duke It Out for ASC Award / Oscar Predictions for Seven More Categories / Albert Finney 1936-2019

Welcome to a new week on this Monday...


BAFTA LOVES TELLURIDE

The  British Academy of Film and Television Arts named their film award winners on Sunday night and films that played TFF #45 last Labor Day weekend dominated the ceremony.  Alfonso Cuaron's Roma won for Best Film, Film not in the English Language, Direction and Cinematography.  Yorgos Lanthimos' The Favourite won the most trophies of the evening with seven including: Best Actress-Olivia Colman, Supporting Actress-Rachel Wiesz, Outstanding British Film, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Costume Design and Makeup/Hair.

Additionally, TFF #45 selection Free Solo won Best Documentary.

TFF #45 films totaled 13 BAFTA wins altogether.

Complete lists of winners in all BAFTA categories plus some insight into what effect these results have on Oscar...whose voting opens tomorrow, is explored from these linked sources:

Deadline

Hollywood News

Indiewire



TFF #45 FILMS DUKE IT OUT FOR ASC AWARD

The American Society of Cinematographers sent a ripple of surprise and uncertainty into the Oscar race for Best Cinematography on Saturday night as they gave their top film prize to Lukasz Zal for shooting Pawel Pawlikowski's Cold War.  Zal bested Alfonso Cuaron's Roma, thought by many to be the favorite for Oscar glory as well as other TFF #45 films First Man and The Favourite.  The other ASC nominees was A Star Is Born.

Indiewire has the story on the ASC presentation which is linked here.


OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SEVEN MORE CATEGORIES

Here are my Oscar predictions for seven more categories (which completes the wave of predictions for all 24 categories over the past week). 

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avengers: Infinity War
2) First Man
3) Ready Player One
4) Solo: A Star Wars Story
5 Christopher Robin

SOUND EDITING

1) First Man
2) A Quiet Place
3) Black Panther
4) Roma
5) Bohemian Rhapsody

SOUND MIXING

1) A Star Is Born
2) First Man
3) Roma
4) Black Panther
5) Bohemian Rhapsody

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Vice
2) Mary queen of Scots
3) Border

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Bao
2) Animal Behavior
3) Weekends
4) Late Afternoon
5) One Small Step

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Period. End of Sentence.
2) End Game
3) A Night at the Garden
4) Lifeboat
5) Black Sheep

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Marguerite
2) Detainment
3) Fauve
4) Skin
5) Mother




ALBERT FINNEY 1936-2019

Photo via IMDb

 A note here on the passing of this past weekend of five time Oscar nominee Albert Finney.  Finney has a spot in my heart since his role as mobster kingpin Leo in what is probably my favorite Coen Brothers film Miller's Crossing.

Four of Finney's Oscar nominations were for Male Lead: Tom Jones, Murder on the Orient Express, The Dresser and Under the Volcano.  He was also nominated for Supporting Actor in Erin Brockovich.  He turned down a knighthood in 2000.

Finney was 82.

Here's Indiewire's story on Finney's death.



That's the MTFB for this Monday.  More on Thursday.

The Directors Fete Cuaron / My Current Oscar Predictions in Ten Categories / Country Music In Telluride? / Rumors of a New Cannes Policy

Welcome to February Ladies and Germs...


THE DIRECTORS FETE CUARON

Photo via Reuters

The Directors Guild of America awarded Alfonso Cuaron their highest honor for feature film making on Saturday night naming him the 2018's outstanding director for Roma.

Some of the Oscarati (the Oscar punditry class...of which, by dint of my presence as a Movie City Guru of Gold, I guess I am now a member) are suggesting that the win points to Roma as the likely front runner for Oscar's Best Picture trophy.

I've had Roma at the top of my predix for about a month now and the DGA win makes me breathe a little easier...but not much.  I still think the Best Picture race is incredibly fluid with Green Book, BlacKkKlansman, A Star Is Born and Black Panther...maybe even Bohemian Rhapsody as possible winners when the envelope gets opened on Feb. 24th.

At any rate, Cuaron wins his second DGA in five years (after winning for Gravity) and is very likely to win the directing Oscar now as well regardless of how the Best Picture race shakes out.  It appears Roma could win Picture, Direction, Foreign Language Film and Cinematography.  Should that happen, Cuaron might well walk off the stage with four trophies...

DGA coverage is linked here from Variety and also from Indiewire.


MY CURRENT OSCAR PREDICTIONS IN TEN CATEGORIES

Here's my latest take on predicting Oscar winners in select categories...

BEST PICTURE

1) Roma
2) BlacKkKlansman
3) Green Book
4) A Star Is Born
5) Black Panther
6) Bohemian Rhapsody
7) Vice
8) The Favourite

BEST DIRECTION

1) Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
2) Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman
3) Adam McKay/Vice
4) Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite
5) Pawel Pawlikowski/Cold War

ACTRESS

1) Glenn Close/The Wife
2) Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born
3) Olivia Colman/The Favourite
4) Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me
5) Yalitza Aparicio/Roma

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk
2) Amy Adams/Vice
3) Emma Stone/The Favourite
4) Rachel Weisz/The Favourite
5) Maris de Tavira/Roma

ACTOR

1) Christian Bale/Vice***
2) Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody***
3) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born
4) Viggo Mortensen/Green Book
5) Willem Dafoe/At Etrenity's Gate

***although this feels squeaky close now

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Green Book
2) Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me
3) Sam Elliott/A Star Is Born
4) Adam Driver/BlacKkKlansman
5) Sam Rockwell/Vice

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Green Book
2) The Favourite
3) Roma
4) Vice
5) First Reformed


ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) BlacKkKlansman
2) If Beale Street Could Talk
3) Can You Ever Forgive Me
4) A Star Is Born
5) The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Roma
2) Cold War
3) Shoplifters
4) Capernaum
5) Never Look Away

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) RBG
2) Free Solo
3) Minding the Gap
4) Hale County This Evening-This Morning
5) Of Fathers and Sons

Final Oscar voting begins next week on Feb. 12th.



COUNTRY MUSIC IN TELLURIDE?

Photo via IMDb

Ken Burns latest multi-part documentary focuses on the history of country music in these United States.  The venerable documentarian's eight part 16+ hour presentation is set to premiere on PBS on Sept. 15th.

That means, as many Telluride veterans will surmise, that some of the Burns doc (or, hell, maybe all of the Burns doc) could well shoe up at The SHOW.

I certainly would be less than stunned if that were the case.  I could also foresee the possible inclusion of some of the individuals Burns includes in the doc as guests to the festival.  Maybe even a concert or two.

The Los Angeles Times posted a lengthy story about the project on Friday that you can find linked here.  Some folks that are reported to be included in the doc (and therefore fair game for TFF #46 speculation are: Vince Gill (who of late has been serving as a stand-in Eagle...but their current bookings only run to July 4th), Emmylou Harris (yes please) and Roseanne Cash.



RUMORS OF A NEW CANNES POLICY

Perhaps stung by last year's inability to strike a deal with Netflix to screen many of the films that the streaming giant had in its film pantry (such as, you know, Roma), The Playlist was reporting this weekend that the world's most famous film festival may have an offer for Netflix to consider in an attempt to lure some of its titles to the Croisette in May.

Charles Barfield wrote that a french journalist was tweeting...yes, I know, it sounds pretty shaky...that Cannes would offer to allow/invite Netflix titles to play in competition with the stipulation that should one of their films win an award that it would then be required to screen in French theaters.

The Playlist story does not suggest that the French law that requires a three year window between theatrical release and streaming would be altered in any way and that was the reported impasse in the past.

Why is this of interest to Telluride Film fans?  Because of the longtime record of films that the two fests have shared over the decades.  In the years since I've been attending (since 2006), the average overlap has been 7-8 films each year.  That's the most significant statistical correlation with any film festival.  So, what happens at Cannes almost always has some ripple effect regarding the TFF lineup for that year.

The complete story from The Playlist is linked here.


That's today's MTFB.  I'll have more on Thursday including a look at Oscar predictions for another seven categories.

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Final Oscar Nomination Predictions / Predictions from Oscar Experts / Green Book Wins PGA / And Looking Ahead-Berlin

Welcome to MTFB.  It's the day before Oscar nominations are announced...less than 24 hours from now...


FINAL (PROBABLY) OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

Well, it's that time.  Five months after the Telluride Film Festival, we're on the brink of knowing how The Academy has decided to honor the films of 2018...or at least, which films, performers and crafts people are still in the running for the film world's top honor.

What follows are my predictions in all 24 competitive Oscar categories.  A couple of notes before we dive in.  My success rate at nominations over the last few years has been between 75-80%.  Past that statistic, I find that the film/performance that I have listed at the #6 (in the categories with the traditional five nominees) makes it onto the list of nominees in about 75% of the cases where I have missed a nominee in a category.  In terms of sheer numbers, that means that if this year continues those trends , there are likely to be only 5-10 nominees across the 100+ total that I don't have predicted outright or as the first possibility after those five.

That said, it's such a weird, shifting year (Green Book wins PGA for example...see below) that the percentages could be way, way off.

Enough disclaimers...here are your predicted Oscar nominees for 2018 (Telluride films are Bold):

BEST PICTURE

1) Roma
2) Green Book
3) A Star Is Born
4) BlacKkKlansman
5) Black Panther
6) Vice
7) Bohemian Rhapsody
8) First Man
9) The Favourite
10) If Beale Street Could Talk

Maybe: First Reformed, Cold War

BEST DIRECTION

1) Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
2) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born
3) Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman
4) Adam McKay/Vice
5) Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite
6) Peter Farrelly/Green Book

Maybe: Pawel Pawlikowski/Cold War, Ryan Coogler/Black Panther

BEST ACTRESS

1) Glenn Close/The Wife
2) Olivia Colman/The Favourite
3) Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born
4) Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5) Yalitza Aparicio/Roma
6) Emily Blunt/Mary Poppins Returns

Maybe: Viola Davis/Widows, Joanna Kulig/Cold War

BEST ACTOR

1) Christian Bale/Vice
2) Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody
3) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born
4) Viggo Mortensen/Green Book
5) John David Washington/BlacKkKlansman
6) Ethan Hawke/First Reformed

Maybe: Willem Dafoe/At Eternity's Gate, Ryan Gosling/First Man

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk
2) Rachel Weisz/The Favourite
3) Emma Stone/The Favourite
4) Amy Adams/Vice
5) Claire Foy/First Man
6) Margot Robbie/Mary, Queen of Scots

Maybe: Emily Blunt/A Quiet Place, Nicole Kidman/Boy Erased

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Green Book
2) Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3) Sam Elliott/A Star Is Born
4) Adam Driver/BlacKkKlansman
5) Timothee Chalamet/Beautiful Boy
6) Sam Rockwell/Vice

Maybe: Michael B. Jordan/Black Panther


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Green Book
2) The Favourite
3) Roma
4) Vice
5) Eighth Grade
6) First Reformed

Maybe: Cold War, A Quiet Place

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) BlacKkKlansman
2) If Beale Street Could Talk
3) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4) A Star Is Born
5) Leave No Trace
6) Black Panther

Maybe: The Death of Stalin, Crazy Rich Asians, First Man

ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse
2) Incredibles 2
3) Isle of Dogs
4) Marai
5) Ralph Breaks the Internet
6) Early Man

Maybe: The Grinch


DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Won't You Be My Neighbor
2) RBG
3) Free Solo
4) Minding the Gap
5) Shirkers
6) Three Identical Strangers

Maybe: Hale County This Morning, This Evening

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Roma
2) Cold War
3) Capernaum
4) Shoplifters
5) Never Look Away
6) Burning

Maybe: The Guilty

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Roma

2) A Star Is Born

3) First Man

4) Cold War

5) The Favourite

6) Black Panther

Maybe: If Beale Street Could Talk

COSTUMES

1) The Favourite

2) Mary Poppins Returns

3) Black Panther

4) Mary Queen of Scots

5) Bohemian Rhapsody

6) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Maybe: BlacKkKlansman Vice, If Beale Street Could Talk,  

FILM EDITING

1) A Star Is Born

2) Roma

3) Vice

4) BlacKkKlansman

5) First Man

6) The Favourite

Maybe: Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Vice

2) Black Panther

3) Mary Queen of Scots

4) Bohemian Rhapsody

Maybe: Border, Stan and Ollie, Suspiria

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) If Beale Street Could Talk

2) First Man

3) Mary Poppins Returns

4) Isle of Dogs

5) Black Panther

6) BlacKkKlansman

Maybe: A Quiet Place, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Shallow/A Star Is Born

2) All the Stars/Black Panther

3) I'll Fight/RBG

4) Girl in the Movies/Dumplin'

5) Trip a Little Light Fantastic/Mary Poppins Returns

6) Where Lost Things Go/Mary Poppins Return

Maybe: Revelation/Boy Erased

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Favourite

2) Mary Poppins Returns

3) First Man

4) Black Panther

5) Roma

6) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Maybe: BlacKkKlansman

SOUND EDITING

1) First Man

2) A Quiet Place

3) Black Panther

4) Roma

5) Mary Poppins Returns

6) Ready Player One

Possible: A Star Is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody, Annihilation

SOUND MIXING

1) A Star Is Born

2) First Man

3) Mary Poppins Returns

4) Roma

5) A Quiet Place

6) Black Panther

Maybe: Bohemian Rhapsody

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) First Man

2) Black Panther

3) Ready Player One

4) Avengers: Infinity War

5) Mary Poppins Returns

6) Solo: A Star Wars Story

Maybe: Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Bao

2) Age of Sail

3) Bird Karma

4) Late Afternoon

5) Animal Behavior

6) Weekends

Maybe: Bilby, Pepe Le Morse

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Period. End of Sentence

2) End Game

3) Zion

4) My Dead Dad's Porno Tapes

5) Lifeboat

6) Women of the Gulag

Maybe: Black Sheep

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Caroline

2) Skin

3) Detainment

4) Fauve

5) Marguerite

6) Susotazs

Maybe: Mother

Sooooo...if I'm 100% accurate tomorrow morning (and as I said above, I should hit between 75-80%) that means the following:

Roma leads all films with 10 nominations and is the only film with double digit nominations.  Telluride films earn 37 total nominations...which in terms of what normally happens...the average is 27-28 nominations, would mark 2018 as a stunning year for the Oscar success for films from TFF.  

The nominations total is largely fueled by solid expectations for craft nominations especially for Roma, The Favourite and First Man.  Here's the TFF film breakdown:

Roma (10): Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay, Foreign Language Film, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing

The Favourite (9): Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress (2), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Production Design

First Man (9): Picture, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Film Editing, Score, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects (should First Man miss on the Best Picture nomination and hit eight total nominees, it will establish a new record for a film with most nominations without getting a Best Picture bid...Mary Poppins Returns could do the same thing)

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3) Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay

Cold War (2): Foreign Language Film, Cinematography

And single nominations for:

Shoplifters: Foreign Language Film

Free Solo: Documentary Feature

Caroline: Live Action Short

Fauve: Live Action Short

Other non-Telluride big players:

A Star Is Born (9) Including Picture, Direction, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay

Black Panther (8): Including Picture, Score and Song

Mary Poppins Returns (8): Including Actress, Score and Song

BlacKkKlansman (7): Including Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay

Vice (7): Including Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay

Green Book (4): Including Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay

If Beale Street Could Talk (4): Including Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Score

Bohemian Rhapsody (3): Including Picture, Actor and Costumes

BUT DON'T TAKE MY WORD FOR IT: PREDICTIONS FROM OSCAR EXPERTS

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch

Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience

GREEN BOOK WINS PGA

Shaking things up as we get ready to have the Oscar nominees revealed to us tomorrow morning was Green Book's somewhat surprise win as Best Picture from The Producers Guild of America.  It seemed to me that most pundits thought it was a likely showdown between A Star Is Born and Roma.

Green Book's win caused quite the uproar on Film Twitter Saturday and Sunday and also resulted in a number of folks in the biz to proclaim that the Peter Farrelly film was now the new front runner for the Best Picture Oscar supplanting both ASIB and Roma.

I'm not there yet.  I still lean toward a Roma win on Feb. 24th but, as you know, that could change.

Oscar voters begin voting for the winners on Feb. 12th and runs through Feb. 19th.

AND LOOKING AHEAD-BERLIN

The Berlin International Film Festival is set to open on Feb. 7th and runs through the 17th.  Berlin almost always provides a film or two that make it onto the TFF lineup on Labor Day weekend.  Meanwhile, Sundance opens on Thursday and will almost certainly serve as an "excluder" in as far as potential Telluride film choices are concerned.  It almost always does.

Berlin's full lineup is linked here from The Hollywood Reporter

Looking at their announced films one might speculate about possible Telluride plays based on previous TFF appearances and expected release dates.  So...put on your list the following as possible TFF #46 selections:

Opening Night Film The Kindness of Strangers from director Lone Scherfig

Francois Ozon's By the Grace of God

Agnieszka Holland's Mr. Jones (last mentioned in this space under the title Gareth Jones)

Zhang Yimou's One Second

Fatih Akin's The Golden Glove

Agnes Varda's Varda by Agnes

That's your MTFB for today.  I'm planning to have a Special Post up tomorrow mid-morning after the Oscar nominations announcements with the list of nominees and some analysis about Telluride films and the Oscar race in general.  Should be a hoot.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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Oscar Predictions: Specialty Categories / Latest Gurus of Gold / Directors Interviews

Oscar nomination announcements are Tuesday!

OSCAR PREDICTIONS: SPECIALTY CATEGORIES

Here are my latest predictions for Oscar nominations in the specialty categories.  Telluride films are Bold.  All of these categories will have five nominees except Makeup/Hair which will have three.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Roma

2) A Star Is Born

3) First Man

4) Cold War

5) The Favourite

6) Black Panther

Possible: If Beale Street Could Talk

COSTUMES

1) The Favourite

2) Mary Poppins Returns

3) Black Panther

4) Mary Queen of Scots

5) Bohemian Rhapsody

6) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Possible: BlacKkKlansman Vice, If Beale Street Could Talk,  

FILM EDITING

1) A Star Is Born

2) Roma

3) Vice

4) BlacKkKlansman

5) First Man

6) The Favourite

Possible: Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Vice

2) Black Panther

3) Mary Queen of Scots

4) Bohemian Rhapsody

Possible: Border, Stan and Ollie, Suspiria

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) If Beale Street Could Talk

2) First Man

3) Mary Poppins Returns

4) Isle of Dogs

5) Black Panther

6) BlacKkKlansman

Possible: A Quiet Place, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Shallow/A Star Is Born

2) All the Stars/Black Panther

3) I'll Fight/RBG

4) Girl in the Movies/Dumplin'

5) Trip a Little Light Fantastic/Mary Poppins Returns

6) Where Lost Things Go/Mary Poppins Return

Possible: Revelation/Boy Erased

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Favourite

2) Mary Poppins Returns

3) First Man

4) Black Panther

5) Roma

6) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Possible: BlacKkKlansman

SOUND EDITING

1) First Man

2) A Quiet Place

3) Black Panther

4) Roma

5) Mary Poppins Returns

6) Ready Player One

Possible: A Star Is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody, Annihilation

SOUND MIXING

1) A Star Is Born

2) First Man

3) Mary Poppins Returns

4) Roma

5) A Quiet Place

6) Black Panther

Possible: Bohemian Rhapsody

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) First Man

2) Black Panther

3) Ready Player One

4) Avengers: Infinity War

5) Mary Poppins Returns

6) Solo: A Star Wars Story

Possible: Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

I'll have my )mostly) final predictions on Monday for all Oscar categories.

LATEST GURUS OF GOLD

The upcoming Gurus of Gold post from Movie City News will focus on the Oscar acting categories and Best Picture.  Not sure exactly when it will go up.  Likely in the next day or two.  Jump on over to their site to check out last week's Gurus and a look from me and 12 other Oscar experts.  

Here's the link to MCN.

DIRECTORS INTERVIEWS

As we steer the ship toward Tuesday's Oscar nominations reveal, here's a look a three recent interviews from directors whose films played TFF #45 and are now a part of the awards conversation:

From The Hollywood Reporter, Roma's Alfonso Cuaron takes us on a tour of his the Mexico City that serves as a setting for the film:

From The New Yorker, Elaina Patton talks to Cold War director Pawel Pawlikowski.  Linked here.

And from The Playlist, Griffin Schiller talks to First Man director Damien Chazelle (and also a bit with actress Claire Foy).  That is linked here.

That's today's MTFB.  A reminder again that next Monday's regularly scheduled post I'll have (mostly) final Oscar predictions.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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