MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SHORTS
For the first time I'm taking a stab at the most difficult Oscar categories to predict both in terms of nominations and ultimate winners. These may or may not change prior to my final Oscar nomination predictions on Jan. 16th. This year of the short listed shorts TFF had two films make those lists: A Swim Lesson in Documentary Shorts and Beautiful Men in Animated Shorts.
Here's where I'm guessing the nominations will land on Jan. 19th:
ANIMATED SHORTS
1) Me
2) Maybe Elephants
3) Bottle George
4) Magic Candles
5)Wander to Wonder
Others: In the Shadow of the Cypress, The 21 and Yuck.
DOCUMENTARY SHORTS
1) Makayla's Voice: A Letter to the World
2) The Only Girl in the Orchestra
3) A Swim Lesson
4) Incident
5) Once Upon a Time in Ukraine
Others: The Quilters, Death by Numbers and Instruments of a Beating Heart.
LIVE ACTION SHORTS
1) The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
2) Dovecote
3) An Orange from Jaffa
4) Room Taken
5) The Masterpiece
Others: Crust, I Am Not a Robot and Clodagh.
THE PERCURSORS' TALE
A bunch of us that try to tell you what's going to happen when Oscar nominations and winners are announced take a look at various "precursor awards". It's a way to try to divine what the film industry is thinking as we move closer to the nomination reveal and then the Oscar ceremony itself.
And there are, if you choose to look at them, a ton of precursors. My buddy Mark Johnson of The Awards Alchemist (housed at Erik Anderson's Awards Watch) annually puts together what he refers to as the Big Board of Precursors You can find its current status here. Mark's Awards Alchemist predictions are linked here.
Next Best Picture's Matt Neglia does a super job of tracking and posting a ton of regional critics organizations choices. For example, Matt posted the results from the Greater Western New York Film Critics Association last week. Your best access to that coverage is through Matt's X account or his Bluesky account.
I look at precursors too but not nearly at the depth that either Mark or Matt do.
My focus goes to these precursors:
National Board of Review (NBR)
American Film Institute (AFI)
New York Film Critics Circle (NY)
Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LA)
Critics' Choice Awards (CC)
Golden Globes nominations (and wins) (GG)
National Society of Film Critics (NF)
BAFTA longlist (and nominations list) (BF)
Screen Actors Guild (cast nominations) (SAG)
Directors Guild of America (DGA)
Producers Guild of America (PGA)
Still to add are the Writers Guild and the actual nominations from BAFTA. That said, here's where this set of precursors are pointing at the moment (with TFF films in Bold).
On top is Sean Baker's Anora with nine of these precursors naming the film one of the Best of 2024. Anora makes the following lists (an * indicates that body has named the film Best of 2024): NBR, AFI, CC, GG, NF, LA*, SAG, DGA, BF
Other films break down as follows:
Two films with seven mentions:
The Brutalist: AFI, CC, GG*, NY*, LA, DGA, BF
A Complete Unknown: NBR, AFI, CC, GG, SAG, DGA, BF
Three films with six mentions:
Conclave: AFI, CC, GG, SAG, DGA, BF
Emilia Perez: AFI, CC, GG*, SAG, DGA, BF
Wicked: NBR*, AFI, CC, GG, SAG, BF
Two Films with four mentions:
Dune Part Two: AFI, CC, GG, BF
Nickel Boys: AFI, CC, GG, NF*
Two films with three mentions:
Sing Sing: NBR, AFI, CC
The Substance: CC, GG, BF
And those could well be your 10 Oscar Best Picture nominated films.
The only other film with more than one mention is A Real Pain with two (NBR, AFI).
It looks to me like this list of precursors suggest that the six films with six or more mentions are locked for a Best Picture nomination with Dune Part Two, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance and A Real Pain duking it out for the other four slots. It also seems to me that both A Complete Unknown and The Substance are both pretty hot right now.
The films with single mentions:
Babygirl: NBR
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga: NBR
Gladiator II: NBR
Juror #2: NBR
Queer: NBR
September 5: GG
Challengers: GG
All We Imagine as Light: NF
The Apprentice: BF
Kneecap: BF
The Apprentice BF
We'll see how the Writers Guild and actual BAFTA nominations alter this picture next week (depending on possible further delays because of the L.A: wildfires).
OSCAR VOTERS: HEAR MY PLEA(S) PLEASE
I would love to see:
From Conclave: Tucci and Rossellini which are both possible but not at all certain. I'm also an advocate for Sergio Castellitto who plays the role of Cardinal Tedesco...the "villain" of the film.
Some love...any love for September 5 or Saturday Night.
And, again, I will bemoan the fact that Zurawski v. Texas wasn't on any shortlist and isn't eligible for Best Picture. Write it in!
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