MTFB's Almost Final Oscar Winner Predictions / RIP Gene Hackman

MTFB'S ALMOST FINAL OSCAR WINNER PREDICTIONS

That's right.  "Almost Final".  I finally decided that I'll put up a "Final Final" on Sunday morning so as to have the freshest data for the nine or so categories that are tight.  More on them below.  That said, here are your latest MTFB predictions about who/what wins an Oscar on Sunday night in all 23 categories.  As always, TFF #51 films are in Bold.  A film's previous position is in parentheses to the right of each title.

BEST PICTURE

1) Anora (1)

2) Conclave (2)

3) The Brutalist (3)

4) A Complete Unknown (4)

5) Wicked (5)

6) Emilia Perez (6)

7) I'm Still Here (8)

8) The Substance (7)

9) Dune Part Two (9)

10) Nickel Boys (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Sean Baker/Anora (1)

2) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist (2)

3) James Mangold/A Complete Unknown (3)

4) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance (4)

5) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez (5)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Mikey Madison/Anora (3)

2) Demi Moore/The Substance (1)

3) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here (2)

4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked (4)

5) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez (5)

BEST ACTOR

1) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist (1)

2) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown (2)

3) Ralph Fiennes/Conclave (3)

4) Domingo Colman/Sing Sing (4)

5) Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez (1)

2) Arian Grande/Wicked (2)

3) Isabella Rossellini/Conclave (4)

4) Monica Barbaro/A Complete Unknown (3)

5) Felicity Jones/The Brutalist (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain (1)

2) Yura Borisov/Anora (3)

3) Edward Norton/A Complete Unknown (2)

4) Guy Pearce/The Brutalist (4)

5) Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice (5)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave (1)

2) Nickel Boys (3)

3) A Complete Unknown (2)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) Sing Sing (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anora (1)

2) A Real Pain (3)

3) The Substance (2)

4) The Brutalist (4)

5) September 5 (5)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

1) Emilia Perez (2)

2) I'm Still Here (1)

3) The Seed of the Sacred Fig (3)

4) Flow (4)

5) The Girl with the Needle (5)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Porcelain War (2)

2) No Other Land (1)

3) Black Box Diaries (3)

4) Sugarcane (4)

5) Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) The Wild Robot (1)

2) Flow (2)

3) Inside Out 2 (3)

4) Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (5)

5) Memoir of a Snail (4)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Brutalist (1)

2) Nosferatu (2)

3) Dune Part Two (3)

4) Maria (5)

5) Emilia Perez (4)

BEST EDITING

1) Conclave (1)

2) Anora (2)

3) Wicked (4)

4) Emilia Perez (5)

5) The Brutalist (3)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Wicked (1)

2) The Brutalist (2)

3) Nosferatu (3)

4) Conclave (5)

5) Dune Part Two (4)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Brutalist (1)

2) Conclave (2)

3) The Wild Robot (3)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) Wicked (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) El Mal/Emilia Perez (1)

2) The Journey/The Six Triple Eight (2)

3) Mi Camino/Emilia Perez (3)

4) Never Too Late/Never Too Late (4)

5) Like a Bird/Sing Sing (5)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Wicked (1)

2) Nosferatu (2)

3) Conclave (3)

4) A Complete Unknown (4)

5) Gladiator II (5)

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Substance (1)

2) Wicked (2)

3) Emilia Perez (3)

4) Nosferatu (4)

5) A Different Man (5)

BEST SOUND DESIGN

1) Dune Part Two (1)

2) Wicked (2)

3) A Complete Unknown (3)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) The Wild Robot (5)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune Part Two (1)

2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (2)

3) Wicked (3)

4) Better Man (4)

5) Alien: Romulus (5)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Anuja

2) I Am Not a Robot

3) A Lien

4) The Man Who Would Not Remain Silent

5) The Last Ranger

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) Wander to Wonder

2) Beautiful Men

3) The Shadow of the Cypress Tree

4) Yuck!

5) Magic Candles

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) I Am Ready Warden

2) The Only Girl in the Orchestra

3) Instruments of a Beating Heart

4) Incident

5) Death by Numbers

Comments:  Your Oscar pool likely depends on 10 categories.  As always all three Shorts categories are up in the air. The Feature categories with some wiggle room:

Best Actress: Madison and Moore.

Best Actor: Brody and Chalamet.

Best Original Screenplay: Anora, A Real Pain and The Substance.

Best International Feature: Emilia Perez and I'm Still Here.

Best Documentary Feature: Porcelain War and No Other Land.

Best Editing: Conclave and Anora.

Best Sound Design: Dune Part Two, Wicked and A Complete Unknown

As of this morning here's how I am predicting Oscars for TFF #51 films:

Anora (4): Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress and Best Original Screenplay.

Emilia Perez (3): Best International Film, Best Supporting Actress and Best Song.

Conclave (2): Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Editing.

A Real Pain (1): Best Supporting Actor.

For a total of 10 Oscars. for TFF #51 films.

Best chances to pickup a "Surprise" win for TFF #51 films:

Conclave: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress and Best Original Score.

No Other Land: Best Documentary.

Anora: Best Supporting Actor and Best Editing.

Nickel Boys: Best Adapted Screenplay

A Real Pain: Best Original Screenplay.

Other non-TFF #51 feature winners that I'm predicting:

The Brutalist (3): Best Actor, Best Original Score and Best Cinematography.

Wicked (2): Best Production Design and Best Costume Design.

Dune Part Two (2): Best Sound Design and Best Visual Effects.

Porcelain War (1): Best Documentary.

The Substance (1): Best Makeup/Hair.

The Wild Robot (1): Best Animated Feature.

I'll have a "Final Final" posted sometime Sunday morning.

RIP GENE HACKMAN

One of the greats has left us.  Authorities in Santa Fe, NM reported overnight that Hackman was found dead in his home along with his wife and dog.  Santa Fe law enforcement say there was no sign of foul play.

In 1974, at the very first Telluride Film Festival, audiences got to see Francis Ford Coppola's The Conversation which features one of Hackman's best performances.

Hackman won two Oscars in his career.  One in 1972 for Best Actor in The French Connection and a second in 1993 for Best Supporting Actor in Unforgiven.

Hackman was 95.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Shorts / The Precursors' Tale / Oscar Voters: Hear My Plea(s) Please / Interviews and Profiles

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SHORTS

For the first time I'm taking a stab at the most difficult Oscar categories to predict both in terms of nominations and ultimate winners.  These may or may not change prior to my final Oscar nomination predictions on Jan. 16th.  This year of the short listed shorts TFF had two films make those lists: A Swim Lesson in Documentary Shorts and  Beautiful Men in Animated Shorts.

Here's where I'm guessing the nominations will land on Jan. 19th:

ANIMATED SHORTS

1) Me

2) Maybe Elephants

3) Bottle George

4) Magic Candles

5)Wander to Wonder

Others: In the Shadow of the Cypress, The 21 and Yuck.

DOCUMENTARY SHORTS

1) Makayla's Voice: A Letter to the World

2) The Only Girl in the Orchestra

3) A Swim Lesson

4) Incident

5) Once Upon a Time in Ukraine

Others: The Quilters, Death by Numbers and Instruments of a Beating Heart.

LIVE ACTION SHORTS

1) The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

2) Dovecote

3) An Orange from Jaffa

4) Room Taken

5) The Masterpiece

Others: Crust, I Am Not a Robot and Clodagh.

THE PERCURSORS' TALE

A bunch of us that try to tell you what's going to happen when Oscar nominations and winners are announced take a look at various "precursor awards".  It's a way to try to divine what the film industry is thinking as we move closer to the nomination reveal and then the Oscar ceremony itself.

And there are, if you choose to look at them, a ton of precursors.  My buddy Mark Johnson of The Awards Alchemist (housed at Erik Anderson's Awards Watch) annually puts together what he refers to as the Big Board of Precursors You can find its current status here.  Mark's Awards Alchemist predictions are linked here.

Next Best Picture's Matt Neglia does a super job of tracking and posting a ton of regional critics organizations choices. For example, Matt posted the results from the Greater Western New York Film Critics Association last week.  Your best access to that coverage is through Matt's X account or his Bluesky account.

I look at precursors too but not nearly at the depth that either Mark or Matt do.  

My focus goes to these precursors:

National Board of Review (NBR)

American Film Institute (AFI)

New York Film Critics Circle (NY)

Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LA)

Critics' Choice Awards (CC)

Golden Globes nominations (and wins) (GG)

National Society of Film Critics (NF)

BAFTA longlist (and nominations list) (BF)

Screen Actors Guild (cast nominations)  (SAG)

Directors Guild of America (DGA)

Producers Guild of America (PGA)

Still to add are the Writers Guild and the actual nominations from BAFTA.  That said, here's where this set of precursors are pointing at the moment (with TFF films in Bold).

On top is Sean Baker's Anora with nine of these precursors naming the film one of the Best of 2024.  Anora makes the following lists (an * indicates that body has named the film Best of 2024): NBR, AFI, CC, GG, NF, LA*, SAG, DGA, BF

Other films break down as follows:

Two films with seven mentions:

The Brutalist: AFI, CC, GG*, NY*, LA, DGA, BF

A Complete Unknown: NBR, AFI, CC, GG, SAG, DGA, BF

Three films with six mentions:

Conclave: AFI, CC, GG, SAG, DGA, BF

Emilia Perez: AFI, CC, GG*, SAG, DGA, BF

Wicked: NBR*, AFI, CC, GG, SAG, BF

Two Films with four mentions:

Dune Part Two: AFI, CC, GG, BF

Nickel Boys: AFI, CC, GG, NF*

Two films with three mentions:

Sing Sing: NBR, AFI, CC

The Substance: CC, GG, BF

And those could well be your 10 Oscar Best Picture nominated films. 

The only other film with more than one mention is A Real Pain with two (NBR, AFI).  

It looks to me like this list of precursors suggest that the six films with six or more mentions are locked for a Best Picture nomination with Dune Part Two, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance and A Real Pain duking it out for the other four slots.  It also seems to me that both A Complete Unknown and The Substance are both pretty hot right now.

The films with single mentions:

Babygirl: NBR

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga: NBR

Gladiator II: NBR

Juror #2: NBR

Queer: NBR

September 5: GG

Challengers: GG

All We Imagine as Light: NF

The Apprentice: BF

Kneecap: BF

The Apprentice BF

We'll see how the Writers Guild and actual BAFTA nominations alter this picture next week (depending on possible further delays because of the L.A: wildfires).

OSCAR VOTERS: HEAR MY PLEA(S) PLEASE

I would love to see:

From Conclave: Tucci and Rossellini which are both possible but not at all certain.  I'm also an advocate for Sergio Castellitto who plays the role of Cardinal Tedesco...the "villain" of the film.

Some love...any love for September 5 or Saturday Night.

And, again, I will bemoan the fact that Zurawski v. Texas wasn't on any shortlist and isn't eligible for Best Picture.  Write it in!

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice from Gold Derby.

Robbie Williams for Better man from Pop Culture Confidential.

Behind the Scenes of All We Imagine as Light from IndieWire.

Sebastian Stan on The Apprentice from Awards Watch.

Robbie Williams for Better Man from Time.com.

Conclave writer Peter Straughan from Awards Radar.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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