My Last Oscar Predix for 2018 / Looking at Feinberg's Forecast / Directors' Takes

Welcome to the last day of 2018 and Happy New Year!

MY LAST OSCAR PREDIX FOR 2018

I'm closing out 2018 with a look at up-to-the-minute Oscar Predictions for the four most major categories: Picture, Direction, Actress and Actor.

Actual voting begins in a week and the nomination announcement is just three weeks away (Jan. 22).

My last publication in this space for these categories was back on Dec. 10th.

Each film's past position is listed in parentheses and TFF #45 films are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) A Star Is Born (1)
2) Roma (2)
3) BlacKkKlansman (6)
4) Green Book (3)
5) Black Panther (5)
6) The Favourite (4)
7) Vice (8)
8) If Beale Street Could Talk (7)
9) Bohemian Rhapsody (-)
10) First Man (-)

Other possibles: First Reformed, Mary Poppins Returns, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

BEST DIRECTION

1) Alfonso Cuaron/Roma (1)
2) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born (2)
3) Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman (3)
4) Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite (5)
5) Peter Farrelly/Green Book (-)

Other possibles: Ryan Coogler/Black Panther, Adam McKay/Vice, Barry Jenkins/If Beale Street Could Talk, Damien Chazelle/First Man

BEST ACTRESS

1) Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born (2)
2) Glenn Close/The Wife (1)
3) Olivia Colman/The Favourite (3)
4) Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me? (4)
5) Emily Blunt/Mary Poppins Returns (5)

Other possibles: Yalitza Aparicio/Roma, Nicole Kidman/Destroyer, Toni Collette/Hereditary

BEST ACTOR

1) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born (2)
2) Christian Bale/Vice (1)
3) Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody (5)
4) Viggo Mortensen/Green Book (3)
5) Ethan Hawke/First Reformed (4)

Other possibles: John David Washington/BlacKkKlansman, Willem Dafoe/At Eternity's Gate, Ryan Gosling/First Man


LOOKING AT FEINBERG'S FORECAST

Scott Feinberg, who is the awards genius at The Hollywood Reporter recently posted his end-of-the-year take on the Oscar season for all 24 Oscar categories.  Here's how Scott assesses the Oscar fates of TFF #45 films assuming 10 Best Picture nominees:

First Man (8): Best Picture, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects.

Roma (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Aparicio), Original Screenplay, Foreign Language Film, Cinematography, Production Design

The Favourite (7): Best Picture, Actress (Colman), Supporting Actress (Stone and Weisz), Original Screenplay, Costumes, Production Design

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3): Actress (McCarthy), Supporting Actor (Grant), Adapted Screenplay

Cold War (2): Foreign Language Film, Cinematography

Single nominations for:
Boy Erased- Supporting Actress (Kidman)
Shoplifters-Foreign Language Film
Free Solo-Documentary Feature
Border-Makeup/Hair
Caroline-Live Action Short
Fauve-Live Action Short

That's a total of 33 predicted nominations for TFF #45.

The complete set of Feinberg's Forecast at The Hollywood Reporter is linked here.


DIRECTORS' TAKES

Continuing my recent trend of linking interviews and profiles of artists from TFF #45 films that are being spotlighted this awards season...

Cold War's Pawel Pawlikowski from Indiewire

Destroyer's Karyn Kusama from Deadline



That's your last MTFB for 2018.  More to come in 2019.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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The Latest from Gold Derby / Interviews

Welcome to the Lull...that week between Christmas and New Years...

THE LATEST FROM GOLD DERBY

It's not a secret that I have been really pleased to be included as an "Oscar Guru" for MOvie City News' Gurus o' Gold this Oscar season but I'd also be silly to ignore the Oscarologists compendium that is Gold Derby.  So, I'm not.

I took a look at their latest collective predictions and this is where there set of pros have Telluride films situated in their prognostications as 2018 comes to a close.

I am assuming nine films make the Best Picture field;

Leading the way for TFF #45 films in Gold Derby's estimation are both The Favourite and First Man.  Both films are pegged fro 10 nominations.  Roma is close behind with a projected eight nominations.

The Favourite is predicted for: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress (for both Stone and Weisz), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Film Editing and Production Design.

The Derby has First Man predicted for: Best Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects.

Roma is picked for: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Sound Editing and Foreign Language Film.

Can You Ever Forgive Me? is named thrice: Actress, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay.

Single nominations are predicted for:

Free Solo: Best Documentary Feature
Cold War: Best Foreign Language Film
Shoplifters: Best Foreign Language Film
Caroline: Best Live Action Short

That's a total of 35 predicted nominations for TFF #45 films.

Additionally, First Reformed from TFF #44 is predicted to earn nominations for Best Actor and Best Original Screenplay.

The complete latest Gold Derby odds are linked here.


INTERVIEWS

Damien Chazelle/First Man with SoundworksCollection.com

Olivia Colman, Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz/The Favourite with The Hollywood Reporter

Pawel Pawlikowski/Cold War with Vox

Alfonso Cuaron et. al./Roma with Indiewire


Thanks for reading.  More on Monday.


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A Very Short Post on Dec. 24th: New Gurus / The Film Stage 50 for 2018

Good Christmas Eve to everyone...

Just a short post today as both flu and Holiday plans have meant a truncated MTFB today.

NEW GURUS

There's a new Gurus of Gold for this holiday week up at Movie City News.  It covers the Big Eight categories; Picture, Direction, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Screenplays.

Here's the link to the New Gurus post.


THE FILM STAGE TOP 50

The Film Stage published its list of the 50 best films from 2018 over the weekend.  Included on that list:

#46-The Old Man and the Gun
#34 First Man
#20 The Rider (TFF #44)
#17 The Favourite
#14 Shoplifters
#8 Cold War
#7 The Other Side of the Wind
#2 Roma
#1 First Reformed (TFF #44)


The complete list is here.

That's all for today.  MTFB should be back to what passes for normal on Thursday.


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Oscar Short Lists and TFF #45 / Indiewire's Critics' Poll for 2018 Says TFF #45 Was Gooood / First Man

How's your week going?


OSCAR SHORT LISTS AND TFF #45

As I mentioned in my last post, the Oscar peeps named their short lists in nine categories on Monday electing to do so all in one wave rather than separately.  Consequently, here's a snapshot of where films from TFF landed in the categories that were included among the nine:

Documentary (15 on the short list): Free Solo
Foreign Language  (9 on the list): Birds of Passage, Shoplifters, Roma and Cold War.  Missing from the list: Border and Girl.
Makeup/Hair (7 on the list): Border
Score (15 on the list): First Man
Song: (15 on the list): Revelation from Boy Erased
Visual Effects (10 on the list): First Man
Live Action Short (10 on the list): Caroline, Fauve

No TFF films were among the short listed films in the Documentary Shorts category or the Animated Shorts.

Variety has the complete rundown of all films short listed on Monday here.


INDIEWIRE'S CRITICS' POLL FOR 2018 SAYS TFF #45 WAS GOOOOD

The crew at Indiewire have done their annual compilation of critics' assessments for the year.  The massive undertaking included the responses of 232 critics and after the dust settled, films that played at Telluride in 2018 fared remarkably well.

Indiewire posted the top films and performances in a number if categories on Monday and here's where TFF films landed.

Best Film (of 10)

1. Roma
2. First Reformed (TFF #44)
4. The Favourite
5. Cold War
6. Shoplifters

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
4. Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite
5. Paul Schrader/First Reformed (TFF #44)

Best Actress

1. Olivia Colman/The Favourite
2. Yalitza Aparicio/Roma
4. Joanna Kulig/Cold War
5. Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Actor

1. Ethan Hawke/First Reformed (TFF #44)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Rachel Weisz/The Favourite
3. Emma Stone/The Favourite

Best Supporting Actor

2. Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever forgive Me?

Best Documentary

4. Free Solo

Best Screenplay

1. The Favourite
2. First Reformed (TFF #44)
3. Roma
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma
3. Shoplifters
4. Cold War

Best Cinematography

1. Roma
2. Cold War
4. First Man
5. The Favourite

The complete article is linked here.

In a separate piece, Imdiewire runs down the top 50 films as rated by the 232 critics that they surveyed and both TFF #45 and TFF #44 were well represented:

43) Birds of Passage
38) Lean on Pete***
35) Border
30) The Other Side of the Wind
25) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
21) First Man
11) The Rider***
6) Shoplifters
5) Cold War
4) The Favourite
2) First Reformed***
1) Roma

(*** designates films from TFF #44)

Indiewire's critics' top 50 is linked here.

FIRST MAN

Sasha Stone at Awards Daily posted a passionate endorsement of Damien Chazelle's First Man on her website this week.  By and large I agree with her assessment about the film and, frankly, were I a voting member of the Academy it would be at the top of my ballot.

It seems a little unusual to me that First Man hasn't performed better at the box office and during this awards season.   In part because there is a group of people that experienced the film at Telluride who all feel much the same way-people that write about films for a living and that I have come to know at least a little bit.  We,have all expressed our belief in the film's quality and if you follow specific media accounts, you can deduce some the people I'm referencing...Sasha being among that group.

It also seems weird that a film that scored so well on my post-festival collection of ratings from fest-goers and business insiders, hasn't connect with the wider public.

I have come to think of Telluride as a terrific bellwether for were the awards season is likely to go.  I have come to the conclusion that T-ride has become an excellent microcosm of film-goers that collectively react much like the Academy will.

But it doesn't seem that way this year with this film.

Maybe this is a disconnect between the Telluride crowd and the rapidly evolving membership of the Academy as it has tried to increase its diversity over the past few years.  Maybe the First Man reaction or lack thereof is an anomaly that won't repeat at TFF #46 and the track record of the last decade or so will reassert itself.

Maybe I'm just wrong.  Wouldn't be the first time.

And it's not that First Man is going to be a total miss come Oscar nomination morning.  It'll likely be nominated for Score, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects. It may get in for Cinematography and Film Editing.  Claire Foy still seems to have a shot at a Supporting Actress nomination.  Even the costumes and production design could still be in the mix for nominations.

Additionally, the Broadcast Film Critics Association gave it 10 nominations last week including Best Picture and Best Direction.  Oscar predictor Kristopher Tapley of Variety/InContention posted his first set of predictions last week and First Man was in seven categories including Best Picture.

But the consensus right now is that the film isn't likely to a Best Picture or Directing nominee on Jan. 22nd and that, to me, seems wrong.

So...

The voting doesn't actually start until Jan. 7th.  Here's the link to Sasha's piece...

Maybe give it a read...she's a much better writer than I am.  And pass it on...

That's your MTFB for this Thursday...more headed your way on Monday.  Happy Holidays all!


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Big Critics Groups and Oscar in 2018 / Cold War Dominates the EFA / Oscar Short Lists Land Today

It is a Monday!  Time for some MTFB...


BIG CRITICS GROUPS AND OSCAR IN 2018

I did this last year at the same time.  That is to say that I collated results about where films stand in critical eyes as we approach the end of the year.

I look at what we've been told by nominations or awards from The Golden Globes (GG), Critics Choice Awards (BFCA), National Board of Review (NBR), American Film Institute (AFI), New York Film Critics Circle (NY) and Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LA), Screen Actors Guild (SAG).

Last year the list looked like this:

10) The Disaster Artist (NBR, GG)
7) The Florida Project (NBR, BFCA, AFI)
7) The Big Sick (BFCA, AFI, SAG)
7) The Shape of Water (BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) The Post (NBR, BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) Dunkirk (NBR, BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
2) Call Me By Your Name (NBR, LA, BFCA, GG, AFI)
2) Get Out (NBR, BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
1) Lady Bird (NBR, NY, BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)

So it included TFF #44 films Lady Bird, and The Shape of Water.  It also included eventual Oscar Best Picture winner, The Shape of Water. and nominees Lady Bird, Three Billboards, Dunkirk, The Post, Get Out, Call Me By Your Name and Dunkirk.  So, the top seven got in with the additions, of TFF #44 film Darkest Hour and also Phantom Thread.

With that in mind, here's what the data from the same seven groups tells us in 2018:

9) Six films tied here with two mentions each: Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, Eighth Grade, First Reformed, A Quiet Place and Vice.

7) Mary Poppins Returns (3): NBR, AFI, BFCA
7) The Favourite (3): GG, AFI, BFCA
4) If Beale Street Could Talk (4): NBR, GG, AFI, BFCA
4) Green Book (4): NBR (best picture), GG, AFI, BFCA
4) BlacKkKlansman (4): GG, AFI, SAG, BFCA
1) A Star Is Born (5): NBR, GG, AFI, SAG, BFCA
1) Roma (5): NBR, NY, LA, AFI (special citation), BFCA
1) Black Panther (5): NBR, GG, AFI, SAG, BFCA

With single mentions: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Can You Ever Forgive Me? and First Man.

Based on last year, if you're film is sitting at #7 or above, it's got a great chance to be Oscar nominated for Best Picture on the morning of Jan. 22nd.


COLD WAR DOMINATES THE EFA

The European Film Awards were passed out Saturday and TFF #45 film Pawel Pawlikowski's Cold War dominated the field picking up five wins including Best European Film.  The film's female lead, Joanna Kulig, was named Best Actress and Pawlikowski won for Best Direction and Screenwriting.  The film also won for Best Editing. 

In other TFF #45 EFA news, Matteo Garrone's Dogman did well too with wins for Best Actor (Marcello Fonte), Costume Design and Hair/Makeup.

Lukas Dhont's Girl was named winner for European Discovery and Ali Abassi's Border won the award for visual effects.

Linked here is the press release from the EFA.


SHORT LISTS LAND TODAY

Steve Pond of The Wrap reports that the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announces all of their short lists for a variety of categories today.

That's a departure from the past when the categories that include the "short list" process have traditionally parcelled those announcements over a period of weeks but that won't be the process this year.

Pond tells us that will mean nine different categories will be trimmed to definitive lists by this afternoon. 

Here are those categories and the number that they will be trimmed to:

Foreign Language Film (9)
Documentary Feature (15)
Original Song (15)
Original Score (15)
Makeup/Hair (7...probably)
Visual Effects (10)
Documentary Short (10)
Animated Short (10)
Live Action Short (10)

Pond also takes a look at what he thinks are the most likely inclusions and exclusions in his article which you can find linked here.

I'll have a look at how the short lists all shake out vis-a-vis Telluride in Thursday's regularly scheduled post.


That's the Monday MTFB.  I'll be back with more on Thursday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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SAG Nominees / Critics' Choice Nominees / Newest Gurus Assesses Golden Globe Chances / Variety's Directors on Directors / Mr. Tapley's Two Cents

It's a Thursday and here's your latest installment of MTFB.

SAG NOMINEES

SAG/AFTRA announced their nominees for acting superlatives for 2018 yesterday.  TFF #45 films were represented as follows:

Best Actress: Olivia Colman/The Favourite, Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Supporting Male: Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Supporting Female: Emma Stone/The Favourite, Rachel Weisz/The Favourite.

Despite three individual acting nominations, The Favourite did not crack the Best Cast nominee list.  Also, somewhat surprising was the absence of Ethan Hawke for TFF #44's First Reformed.

Indiewire has the complete rundown of all the nominees linked here.




CRITICS' CHOICE NOMINEES

TFF #45 favorite Yorgos Lanthimos' The Favourite led all films in Monday's announcement of nominees for the Critics Choice Awards from the Broadcast Film Critics Association with 14 nominations.  Ryan Coogler's Black Panther was the second most nominated film with a dozen.  Damien Chazelle's First Man was next with 10 nominations.  Alfonso Cuaron's Roma had eight.

Best Picture nominations went to Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, First Man, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns, Roma, A Star Is Born and Vice.

Here's how the nominations broke down for TFF #45 films:

The Favourite (14): Picture, Direction, Actress (Colman), Supporting Actress (Stone and Weisz), Ensemble, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Film Editing, Hair/Makeup, Comedy Film and Comedy Actress,

First Man (10): Picture, Direction, Actor (Gosling), Supporting Actress (Foy), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Film Editing, Score and Visual Effects.

Roma (8): Picture, Direction, Actress (Aparicio), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Film Editing, Foreign Language Film

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3): Actress (McCarthy), Supporting Actor (Grant), Adapted Screenplay

Boy Erased (1): Supporting Actress (Kidman)

Cold War (1): Foreign Language Film

Shoplifters (1): Foreign Language Film

Additionally, First Reformed from TFF #44 had two nominations: Best Actor (Hawke) and Original Screenplay.

The complete list of all nominees with some commentary from Anne Thompson is linked here from Indiewire.

The Critics Choice Awards will be handed out on Jan. 13, 2019.


NEWEST GURUS O' GOLD ASSESSES GOLDEN GLOBES CHANCES

Those of us comprising this season's Gurus of Gold were asked this past week to take a stab at predicting winners for the Golden Globes in three categories now that we know the nominees.  We were tasked with evaluating Best Motion Picture Drama, Musical or Comedy and Director.

My ballot was topped by A Star Is Born (Drama), The Favourite (Musical or Comedy) and I named Alfonso Cuaron as the likely Best Directing winner.

As you might expect, not all the individual Gurus agreed with my assessment.

Check out the latest Gurus o' Gold linked here.


VARIETY'S DIRECTORS ON DIRECTORS

Variety posted a very cool article on Wednesday with lauded directors writing a few words about 17 of this year's films thought to be contenders during this awards season.  Among those 17 films are six that screened as apart of TFF #45.  They are:

Guillermo Del Toro on Alfonso Cuaron's Roma
Ron Howard on The Front Runner
Haiffa al-Mansour on Marielle Heller's Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Christopher Nolan on Damien Chazelle's First Man
Alexander Payne on Pawel Pawlikowski's Cold War
Josh Safdie on Yorgos Lanthimos' The Favourite

The complete article is linked here.


MR. TAPLEY'S TWO CENTS

Logo via Variety

And finally on this Thursday...Variety's awards expert Kristopher Tapley has weighed in with his first run at predicting Oscar nominees.  Tapley gives his best insight to the 21 feature categories with TFF #45 films pegged for 32 nominations (which would be a little above the Telluride average for the past decade or so).  He also has a TFF #44 film in play for a couple of nominations.

Here's the breakdown with total predicted nominations in parentheses:

Roma (8): Best Picture, Direction, Foreign Language Film, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.

The Favourite (7): Best Picture, Actress (Colman), Supporting Actress (Stone and Weisz), Original Screenplay, Costumes, Production Design.

First Man (7): Best Picture, Cinematography, Film Editing, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects.

Cold War (3): Best Direction, Foreign Language Film, Cinematography.

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3): Best Actress (McCarthy), Supporting Actor (Grant), Adapted Screenplay

Border (2): Foreign Language Film, Makeup/Hair

Shoplifters (1): Foreign Language Film

Free Solo (1): Documentary Feature

AND...from TFF #44: First Reformed (2): Best Actor (Hawke), Original Screenplay.

Tapley's complete set of predictions are linked here.



More on Monday!

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Los Angeles Critics' Name 2018's Top Films / Oscar Predictions Update / Acquiring Minds Want to Know / Berlin Announces Opening Film

Good Monday film friends...


LOS ANGELES CRITICS' NAME 2018'S TOP FILMS

The LA Film Critics Association met and voted for their top films and performances for the past year yesterday and here are their results with Telluride films in Bold.

Best Picture
Winner: Roma
Runner-up: Burning

Best Direction
Winner: Debra Granik/Leave No Trace
Runner-up: Alfonso Cuaron/Roma

Best Actress
Winner:Olivia Colman/The Favourite
Runner-up: Toni Collette/Hereditary

Best Actor
Winner:Ethan Hawke/First Reformed (TFF #44)
Runner-up:Ben Foster/Leave No Trace

Best Supporting Actress
Winner: Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk
Runner-up: Elizabeth Debicki/Widows

Best Supporting Actor
Winner: Steven Yeun/Burning
Runner-up: Hugh Grant/Paddington 2

Best Screenplay
Winner: Nicole Holofcener and Tim Whitty/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Runner-up: Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara/The Favourite

Best Production Design
Winner: Black Panther
Runner-up: The Favourite

Best Editing
Winner: Minding the Gap
Runner-up: Roma

Best Cinematography
Winner: Roma
Runner-up: If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Music Score
Winner: If Beale Street Could Talk
Runner-up: First Man

Best Foreign Language Film
Winner: (Tie) Burning and Shoplifters

Best Documentary/Non-Fiction Film
Winner: Shirkers
Runner-up: Minding the Gap

Best Animation:
Winner: Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse
Runner-up: Incredibles 2

New Generation: Chloe Zhao

Special Citation: The Other Side of the Wind

Douglas Edwards Award: Green Fog

Lifetime Achievement: Hayao Miyazaki

The complete list and a bit of commentary is linked here from Indiewire.

OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE

Here's my latest take on four major Oscar categories.  The film/performer's position as of my last set of predictions for that category follow in parentheses and TFF #45 films are Bold.

BEST PICTURE (Last updated Nov. 26th)

1) A Star Is Born (1)

2) Roma (2)

3) Green Book (3)

4) The Favourite (4)

5) Black Panther (8)

6) BlacKkKlansman (7)

7) If Beale Street Could Talk (6)

8) Vice (5)

9) Mary Poppins Returns (12)

10) First Reformed (-)***TFF #44

Others: First Man, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Widows, Boy Erased

BEST DIRECTION (Last update Nov. 26th)

1) Alfonso Cuaron/Roma (1)

2) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born (2)

3) Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman (3)

4) Barry Jenkins/If Beale Street Could Talk (4)

5) Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite (5)

Others: Peter Farrelly/Green Book, Ryan Coogler/Black Panther, Rob Marshall/Mary Poppins Returns, Adam McKay/Vice

BEST ACTRESS (Last updated Nov. 8th)

1) Glenn Close/The Wife (1)

2) Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born (2)

3) Olivia Colman/The Favourite (3)

4) Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me? (4)

5) Emily Blunt/Mary Poppins Returns (-)

Others: Yalitza Aparicio/Roma, Nicole Kidman/Destroyer, Viola Davis/Widows

BEST ACTOR (Last Updated Nov. 8th)

1) Christian Bale/Vice (3)

2) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born (1)

3) Viggo Mortensen/Green Book (2)

4) Ethan Hawke/First Reformed (-)***TFF#44

5) Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody (4)

Others: Lucas Hedges/Boy Erased, WIllem Dafoe/At Eternity's Gate, Ryan Gosling/First Man

ACQUIRING MINDS WANT TO KNOW

A couple of interesting and Telluride related news items concerning film distribution deals emerged this week.

First...

The long awaited Aretha Franklin documentary Amazing Grace has been picked up for release by specialty outfit Neon.  The film was scheduled to be screened at T-ride in both 2015 and 2016 but legal issues prevented that from occurring in both years.

As a side note, the film was recently screened at a Telluride Film Festival event in San Francisco.  So, in a sense, the twice scheduled and twice denied film finally did screen for TFFers.

Here's a sampling of coverage of the film's acquisition from: Variety, Deadline, Indiewire, The Wrap.

Meanwhile, Werner Herzog's documentary conversation with former Soviet Union Premier Mikhail Gorbachev, Meeting Gorbachev, that played this year's TFF #45 was also acquired for distribution this week by The Orchard.  Reporting is that The Orchard will release the film early next year.

Here are details from The Wrap and Deadline.


BERLIN ANNOUNCES OPENING FILM

The 69th Berlin Film Fest will open with Lone Scherfig's newest The Kindness of Strangers with Zoe Kazan , Andrea Riseborough and Bill Nighy.  The film is set for release sometime in 2019 and, as yet, has no U.S. distribution.

It is of note for Telluride fans as T-ride usually has a film or two from Berlin in the TFF lineup.  This year included Berlin entry Dovlatov and in 2017 TFF screened Berlin films A Fantastic Woman, The Other Side of Hope and Hostages.

Additionally, Lone Scherfig has a bit of a Telluride history having screened Italian for Beginners in 2001 and An Education in 2009.

So, until we have a definite distributor and release date, maybe put this on your TFF #46 possibles list.

IMDb describes The Kindness of Strangers as "The story of four strangers suffering through the worst crises of their lives."

The press release from the Berlinale is linked here.


That's today's semi-packed MTFB.  More to come on Thursday...including Screen Actors Guild/Aftra and Critics' Choice (BFCA) nominations!

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Golden Globe Nominations Land / AFI Names Ten Best (Plus One) / The Playlist 100 for 2019

It's Golden Globe nomination Thursday and as such, MTFB is a bit later today than usual but here it is now...


GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS LAND

Here are this morning's Golden Globe nominees.  TFF films are indicated with *.

Best Picture/Drama

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born

Best Picture/Musical-Comedy

Crazy Rich Asians
*The Favourite
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns
Vice


Best Actor/Drama

Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe/At Eternity's Gate
*Lucas Hedges/Boy Erased
Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody
John David Washington/BalcKkKlansman

Best Actress/Drama

Glenn Close/The Wife
Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born
*Nicole Kidman/Destroyer
*Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Rosamund Pike/A Private War

Best Actor/Musical-Comedy

Christian Bale/Vice
Lin Manuel Miranda/Mary Poppins Returns
Viggo Mortensen/Green Book
*Robert Redford/The Old Man and the Gun
John C. Reilly/Stan and Ollie


Best Actress Musical-Comedy

Emily Blunt/Mary Poppins Returns
*Olivia Colman/The Favourite
Elise Fisher/Eighth Grade
Carlize Theron/Tully
Constance Wu/Crazy Rich Asians

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali/Green Book
Timothee Chalamet/Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver/BlacKkKlansman
*Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell/Vice

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams/Vice
*Claire Foy/First Man
Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk
*Emma Stone/The Favourite
*Rachel Weisz/The Favourite

Best Direction

Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born
*Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
Peter Farrelly/Green Book
Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay/Vice

Best Screenplay

*Roma
*The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
Vice
Green Book

Best Score

A Quiet Place
Isle of Dogs
Black Panther
*First Man
Mary Poppins Returns

Best Song

Black Panther
Dumplin'
A Private War
*Boy Erased
A Star Is Born


Best Animated Feature

Incredibles 2
Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Isle of Dogs
Marai

Best Foreign Language Film

Capernaum
*Girl
Never Look Away
*Roma
*Shoplifters


TFF #45 nominees by film:

The Favourite:  Best Film-Musical or Comedy, Best Actress-Musical or Comedy (Colman), Best Supporting Actress (Stone and Weisz), Screenplay

Roma: Foreign Language, Direction, Screenplay

Can You Ever Forgive Me? Best Actress-Musical or Comedy (McCarthy), Best Supporting Actor (Grant)

Boy Erased: Best Actor-Drama (Hedges), Best Song

Destroyer: Best Actress-Drama (Kidman)

First Man: Best Supporting Actress (Foy), Best Score

The Old Man and the Gun: Best Actor-Musical or Comedy (Redford)

Girl: Best Foreign Language Film

Shoplifters: Best Foreign Language Film

TFF #45 films earn 18 Globe nominations.

AFI NAMES TEN BEST (PLUS ONE)

The American Film Institute named their ten best films for 2018 on Tuesday:

TFF #45 earned one spot on the list for Yorgos Lanthimos' The Favourite.  TFF #45 entrant Roma was named as the recipient of a special award as it was not eligible for the top ten list per AFI rules.  TFF #44 film First Reformed was also named to the AFI Top Ten list.  That could bode well for Roma as the last time the AFI named a film for a special award was in 2011 for eventual Oscar Best Picture winner The Artist.

First Man and Can You Ever Forgive Me? both missed out.

The complete list:

BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Eighth Grade
If Beale Street Could Talk
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Room
Mary Poppins Returns
A Quiet Place
A Star Is Born

Special Award: Roma

Here's coverage from Indiewire.



THE PLAYLIST 100

The annual review of their 100 most anticipated films for the new year came down for The Playlist earlier this week and, as you might expect, I have culled the list for films that seem like they should be on our radar for TFF #46.

The staff specifically mentions Telluride as a possible destination for only three films:

#39: Pale Blue Dot (now titled: Lucy in the Sky)
#26: The untitled Noah Baumbach project
#11: The Last Thing He Wanted

Among the other 97 films listed, the following are the ones that seem to me to be most likely:

#100: The Glorias: A Life on the Road
#91: Resistance
#79: My Zoe
#66: Mainstream
#64: Against All Enemies
#63: The Woman in the Window
#59: The Trial of the Chicago 7 (not likely as production has been delayed)
#52: Motherless Brooklyn
#40: The Goldfinch
#34: You Are My Friend (Now titled: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
#33: Antlers
#30: Ema
#29: Waiting for the Barbarians
#24: The King
#20: Radegund
#19: Bergman Island
#17: The Truth
#15: The Laundromat
#13: Triple Frontier (off the list, release dated for Mar. 13th)
#7: Little Women
#2: The Irishman

The complete list of 100 films (plus some honorable mentions) from The Playlist is linked here.


That's all she wrote for this Golden Globes Thursday...more on Monday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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New York Critics Love Roma (and First Reformed) / Latest Gurus o' Gold / Satellite Nominations Announced / More Interviews

Welcome back from your weekend and to the first of December.


NEW YORK CRITICS LOVE ROMA (AND FIRST REFORMED)

The New York Film Critics Circle met in NYC on Thursday last week and named the recipients of their accolades for 2018.  Telluride films from TFF #45 and TFF #44 had some results to be pleased with.

Alfonso Cuaron's TFF #45 entry Roma was named Best Film of 2018 and was also named winner for Direction and Cinematography.  Other TFF #45 awards went to Pawel Pawlikowski's Cold War as Best Foreign Language Film and Richard E. Grant for his Supporting Performance in Marielle Heller's Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Meanwhile Paul Schrader's First Reformed from TFF #44 was named winner for Best Screenplay and its lead, Ethan Hawke, was named Best Actor.

Telluride films claimed seven of the 12 competitive awards that were determined by the NYFCC.

My take: We probably need to take Ethan Hawke seriously as a potential Oscar nominee for Best Actor as well as First Reformed as a possible Best Picture nominee.

Coverage of the NYFCC awards is linked here from Indiewire.



LATEST GURUS OF GOLD

The newest Gurus o' Gold at Movie City News went up on Friday.  We Gurus were asked to update Best Picture as well as ranking for possible nominees for Best Foreign Language Film and Best Documentary.

My ballot looked like this:

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born
2. Roma
3. Green Book
4. The Favourite
5. Vice
6. If Beale Street Could Talk
7. Black Panther
8. BlacKkKlansman
9. First Man
10. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
11. Mary Poppins Returns
12. First Reformed

Best Documentary

1. Won't You Be My Neighbor
2. RBG
3. Free Solo
4. Minding the Gap
5. Science Fair
6. Qunicy
7. Crime + Punishment

Best Foreign Film

1. Roma
2. Cold War
3. Shoplifters
4. Burning
5. Capernaum
6. Sunset
7. Border

The TFF presence from the complete Gurus assessment from Friday has


The complete new Gurus o' Gold chart is linked here.


SATELLITE NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

The International Press Academy announced their nominees for their 23rd annual Satellite Awards on Thursday last week.

Among Telluride films, Yorgos Lanthimos' The Favourite was the most nominated film with nine competitive nominations as well as a special ensemble prize.  It was nominated for Best Feature-Musical/Comedy, Best Actress Musical or Comedy (Colman), Best Supporting Actress (both Stone and Weisz), Direction, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes and Art Direction/Production Design.

Alfonso Cuaron's Roma was nominated in eight categories: Best International Film, Best Actress Drama- Yalitza Aparicio, Direction, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Sound, Art Direction/Production Design.

Damian Chazelle's First Man was nominated seven times: Best Feature-Drama, Best Actor-Drama (Gosling), Best Supporting Actress (Foy), Score, Sound, Film Editing, Art Direction/Production Design.

Joel Edgerton's Boy Erased was nominated in four categories: Best Actor-Drama (Hedges), Best Supporting Actress (Kidman), Best Supporting Actor (Crowe), Song.

Marielle Heller's Can You Ever Forgive Me was thrice nominated: Best Actress-Drama (McCarthy), Best Supporting Actor (Grant), Best Adapted Screenplay.

Paul Schrader's TFF #44 entry First Reformed was nominated three times: Best Independent Feature, Best Actor-Dram (Hawke) and Best Original Screenplay.

Pawel Pawlikowski's Cold War was a two time nominee for Best International Feature and Cinematography.

Other TFF #45 films that earned one nomination were:

Destroyer-Best Actress-Drama (Kidman)
The Old Man and the Gun-Best Actor-Drama (Redford)
Shoplifters- Best International Feature
Free Solo-Best Documentary Feature

TFF #45 films nabbed a total of 37 Satellite nominations.

The full list of all nominees is here from the IPA.


MORE INTERVIEWS

Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me? from Deadline

Joel Edgerton/Boy Erased from Deadline

Robbie Ryan (cinematographer)/The Favourite from The Film Stage

Justin Hurwitz (composer)/First Man from Gold Derby


That's your MTFB for this Monday.  I'll have more on Thursday in a post that will be updated during the day to reflect Golden Globe nominations and Telluride's impact on them.  Until then...


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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National Board of Review / Gotham Awards Winners / A Cascade of Interviews

Hello to all on this final Thursday of November 2018...Lots of awards news over the past few days...the season got serious this week.


NATIONAL BOARD OF REVIEW REVEALS ITS WINNERS

It was a good day for films from Telluride...from 2017/TFF #44 as the National Board of Review named its best films for the year on Tuesday.

Paul Schrader's First Reformed was well honored as it was named  twice.  Schrader was awarded for Best Original Screenplay and the film was named to the NBR 10 Best Films of the Years list.

Also named to the 10 Best list from TFF #45 were Can You Ever Forgive Me? and Roma.

Cold War was named Best Foreign Language Film.  Shoplifters was named one of five additional Best Foreign Language Films of the year.

Kris Tapley tweeted that Roma's inclusion on the 10 Best list precluded it from being named Best Foreign Language Film.

On the 10 Best independent films list were David Lowery's The Old Man and the Gun.  Also listed from TFF #44 were Lean on Pete and The Rider.

Free Solo was named on the list of the five Best Documentaries.

Peter Farrelly's Green Book won the top award as Best Film of the Year.

Among non-Telluride films Green Book, A Star Is Born and If Beale Street Could Talk did very well with the NBR.

Both The Other Side of the Wind and its companion documentary They'll Love Me When I'm Dead were named as winners of the William K. Everson Film History Award.

The complete winners list and more is here from Indiewire.



GOTHAM AWARDS WINNERS

 

The Indie film-centric Gotham Awards were announced on Monday evening and it was a good night for Telluride...in 2017.  TFF #44 films did incredibly well highlighted by wins for Paul Schrader's First Reformed and the win for Chloe Zhao's The Rider as Best Feature.

First Reformed's Ethan Hawke won Best Actor and Schrader won for Best Screenplay.

The only accolade of the evening for a TFF #45 film was a Special Jury Award for the ensemble of women from The Favourite which had been previously announced.

Other TFF #45 that had nominations but were shut out were: The Favourite (Best Feature, Best Screenplay), Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Best Supporting Actor) and Roma (Breakthrough Actor).

Complete coverage is here from Indiewire and Gold Derby.

The next big shoe to drop in the awards parade is The New York Film Critics Circle which happens today.


 A CASCADE OF INTERVIEWS

Alfonso Cuaron

Multiple interviews linked here with folks that played with TFF #45:


Damien Chazelle/First Man, Alfonso Cuaron/Roma, Jason Reitman/The FrontRunner and Marielle Heller/Can You Ever Forgive Me? from The Hollywood Reporter

Yalitza Aparicio and Marina de Tavira/Roma from Awards Watch

Alfonso Cuaron/Roma from Indiewire

Josh Singer/First Man from Awards Daily

Pawel Pawlikowski/Cold War (from my Tomris Laffly) Film Journal

Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite from Indiewire

Hirokazu Kore-eda/Shoplifters from Vulture

Tom Cross (editor)/First Man from Deadline


That's today's MTFB.  I'll have more on Monday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Updated Oscar Predictions: Picture, Director and Cinematography / Gurus of Gold-Thanksgiving Weekend / This IS Way Too Early

Welcome to the Monday after Thanksgiving.  For those who over-indulged in "thanks"...I hope your food coma has subsided...


UPDATED OSCAR PREDICTIONS: PICTURE, DIRECTOR, CINEMATOGRAPHY

As a part of my ongoing position as a Guru o' Gold for Movie City News (see below), I was asked to update predictions for Best Picture, Direction and offer up a first take on Cinematography.  As such, here's what I reported.  For Picture and Director, their previous spot here at MTFB follows in parentheses.  Best Picture and Director was last included here on Nov. 1st.

As always, TFF #45 films are Bold

BEST PICTURE

1) A Star Is Born (1)
2) Roma (2)
3) Green Book (3)
4) The Favourite (4)
5) Vice (10)
6) If Beale Street Could Talk (7)
7) BlacKkKlansman (5)
8) Black Panther (8)
9) First Man (6)
10) Can You Ever Forgive Me? (9)
11) Widows (-)
12) Mary Poppins Returns (-)


BEST DIRECTION

1) Alfonso Cuaron/Roma (1)
2) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born (2)
3) Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman (3)
4) Barry Jenkins/If Beale Street Could Talk (-)
5) Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite (5)
6) Peter Farrelly/Green Book (-)
7) Damien Chazelle/First Man (4)


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Roma
2) A Star Is Born
3) First Man
4) If Beale Street Could Talk
5) The Favourite
6) Cold War
7) Black Panther


GURUS OF GOLD-THANKSGIVING WEEKEND

Here's the link to the latest Gurus of Gold predictions.  Among the three categories updated (Picture, Director, Cinematography) TFF #45 films are named as follows:

Roma: Picture, Director, Cinematography
The Favourite: Picture, Director, Cinematography
First Man: Picture (if it goes to nine), Cinematography
Can You Ever Forgive Me?: Picture (if it goes to ten)

Others getting mentioned without earning enough votes for predicted nominations:

First Man: Director
Can You Ever Forgive Me?: Director
Cold War: Picture, Director, Cinematography
The Front Runner: Picture
Boy Erased: Picture
First Reformed (TFF #44): Picture


THIS IS WAY TOO EARLY

Tom Hanks as Fred Rogers on the set of Marielle Heller's You Are My Friend via IMDb

I saw that Jeff Wells/Hollywood Elsewhere and Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel had both created and published lists of anticipated 2019 titles...which seems like bait I can't ignore.  Sooo...

I took a look at both lists (which share a huge number of titles) and here are twelve films that seem/sound like they might be candidates for inclusion for TFF #46:

All You Need Is Love.  The project (with Beatles music as a central part of the film) could make TFF #46 because it's from Danny Boyle who has had a significant history with the fest: Slumdog Millionaire, 127 Hours, Steve Jobs.  The film is currently scheduled for U.S. release on Sept. 13th.

The True American from Pablo Larrain...if it's ready.  Larrain, like Boyle, has had a strong history with TFF: No, Neruda.  Both this and the above mentioned Boyle project are produced by Annapurna Pictures which has also had a presence at Telluride: Foxcatcher, Destroyer.

You Are My Friend:  From Marielle Heller who just has had her Telluride introduction with Can You Ever Forgive Me?  The film stars Tom Hanks (who was at TFF with Sully in 2016) as Fred Rogers.  The film has an awards and TFF friendly release date of Oct. 18th.

Little Women: Greta Gerwig's anticipated take on the Louisa May Alcott classic.  With the reception that her directorial debut Lady Bird received at TFF in 2017 you have to think this is a real possibility.  Scheduled for release on Dec. 25th.

The Woman in the Window: director Joe Wright's follow-up to his 2017 Darkest Hour which played TFF and earned six Oscar nominations and won two including Gary Oldman's Best Actor win.  The film is set for release on Oct. 4th.  The film's plotline sounds much a take on Hitchcock's Rear Window and the cast is ridiculously stunning: Julianne Moore, Amy Adams and Gary Oldman. 

Velvet Buzzsaw: From writer-director Dan Gilroy.  I'm mostly thinking this could play because Gilroy re-teams with his Nightcrawler co-conspirators Jake Gyllenhaal and Rene Russo.  The film is set in the contemporary art scene and is described as a horror/thriller.  Netflix is producing which doesn't hurt its TFF chances if the recent past is any indication.

Pale Blue Dot:  Fargo (the TV version) guru Noah Hawley jumps into feature film making with Natalie Portman starring as an astronaut having issues once she returns from space.  The film is from Fox Searchlight which means we have to consider it a TFF possibility.

Bergman Island: Mia Hansen-Love's latest project and a with her TFF pedigree (Goodbye First Love, Things to Come), a film we should consider.  Mia Wasikowska and Vicky Krieps star.

Triple Frontier:  a long gestating project from J.C. Chandor.  It's been developed by Netflix and stars Ben Affleck and Oscar Isaac among others about an attempt to overturn the drug trade in South America.  Chandor was in T-ride in 2014 with All Is Lost and both Affleck (Argo) and Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis) have been as well. 

And then here are these three huge projects...

The Goldfinch:  The film adaptation of the Pulitzer Prize winning novel by Donna Tartt.  John Crowley, who broke through with Brooklyn in 2015, directs.  The cast includes Nicole Kidman (this year at TFF with Destroyer and Boy Erased) and Sarah Paulson.  The film is from Amazon and is set for release on Oct. 11th which makes a T-ride play possible.

Radegund:  Terrence Malick's latest and a film I have been waiting for from him for some time now...surprise, surprise.  The true story of a German conscientious objector in World War II could appear in 2019...or not.  I wouldn't be surprised if it was a selection for Cannes. 

The Irishman:  Martin Scorsese's Netflix joint.  Probably an unrealistic dream for a Telluride play but a guy has to hope.  DeNiro, Pacino, Pesci and Keitel and more.  The best chance that it plays is that it is from Netflix which, again, doesn't hurt its chances for Telluride.  Netflix has to be happy, at least so far, with how Roma played TFF which probably helps too.


The complete Hollywood Elsewhere post is here.

The complete World of Reel post is here.


That's this Monday's MTFB.  More will be on its way to you on Thursday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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