Oscar Update: Best Original Screenplay / NSFC Names Winners / Feinberg on Docs and International Features

OSCAR UPDATE: BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Original Screenplay updated since I last posted this category on  Dec. 10th.  A screenplay's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 films are indicated in Bold.

1) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (1)

2) Promising Young Woman (5)

3) Mank (2) 

4) Minari (3)

5) Soul (4)

6) Judas and the Black Messiah (6)

7) Never Rarely Sometimes Always (8)

8) Da 5 Bloods (7)

9) Sound of Metal (-)

10) Palm Springs (9)

Other Possibles: On the Rocks, the 40 Year old Version, Ammonite

Hot: Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal

Not: On the Rocks

Coming on Thursday...a new look at Best Picture.

NSFC NAMES WINNERS

The National Society of Film Critics met this past Saturday and decided on their superlatives for 2020.  TFF #47 selection Nomadland was the big winner as it grabbed four prizes including Best Picture.

Here's the list of winners or runners-up from TFF #47 OR TFF #46:

Best Picture: Winner: Nomadland, Runner-up: First Cow (TFF #46)

Best Direction: Winner: Chloe Zhao/Nomadland, 2nd Runner-up: Kelly Reichardt/First Cow (TFF #46)

Best Actress: Winner: Frances McDormand/Nomadland

Best Screenplay: Runner-up: Kelly Reichardt/First Cow (TFF #46)

Best Cinematography: Winner: Nomadland

Best Foreign Language Film: Runner-up: Beanpole (TFF #46)

Take a look at all of the winners and runners-up at Gold Derby using this link.

FEINBERG ON DOCS AND INTERNATIONAL FEATURES

The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg posted an article on Saturday focusing on the race for Oscar nominations in the Documentary Feature and International Feature categories.  Feinberg lists three TFF #47 films, one in both categories in the body of the article:

Docs:

All In: The Fight for Democracy

The Bee Gees: How Do You Men a Broken Heart

Notturno.

Feinberg also puts Notturno in the International Film category as well.

You can catch the rest of the article by clicking here.

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More on Rumors and Whispers / The Professionals Telluride / Circuit Breaker Podcast / Joker Bits and Pieces / The People's Telluride

Tuesday...Three Days...


MORE ON RUMORS AND WHISPERS

Yesterday I wrote a little bit about rumors swirling that a secret film would screen at Telluride this week.  My list of what that might be was as follows:

1) None of the rumors are true and there is no surprise screening at all.
2) Todd Haynes Project (Dark Waters or Dry Run or...being snarky now...Dry Water or Dark Run or Dry Dark Water Run)
3) Nomadland
4) Little Women
5) Ad Astra
6) Joker
7) Bombshell
8) El Camino/Breaking Bad

For about three hours yesterday afternoon several of us that play this game thought we had the rumored secret figured out as Focus Features announced that Todd Haynes' Dark Waters has been dated for release.  Deadline.com was the first to report the film will be in limited release on Nov. 22nd.  The story also revealed that the film has been titled Dark Waters which, as far as I know, is the first definitive reference to the film's title.  Dry Run had also been bandied about as a possible title.

A lot of film Twitter made clear that they viewed this as a likely "tell" that the film is probable for Telluride's lineup that will be officially unveiled on Thursday.

Here's the Deadline.com article.

Then early on Monday evening came Indiewire's story about the Dark Waters release written by Anne Thompson.  Anne's story included this passage:

"The movie (Dark Waters), which co-stars Tim Robbins and Bill Pullman, will not be ready in time for the earlier fall film festivals, but might turn up at AFI Fest in November. Focus will open the movie limited November 22, with expansion a week later."

I have to believe Anne has the lowdown straight on this.

So...what does it mean?

1) The #1 possibility I listed above still looks like my best guess...I.E. no film plays as a surprise.

Then with the Thompson story in mind, we drop Dark Waters down to the last possibility and the rest of the guesses look like this:

2) Nomadland
3) Little Women
4) Ad Astra
5) Joker
6) Bombshell
7) El Camino/Breaking Bad
8) Dark Waters

Thompson's complete Indiewire report is linked here.



THE PROFESSIONALS TELLURIDE

Each year since 2012 I have polled a list of industry professionals at the conclusion of the fest to rate the films they saw on a 1-5 scale just like I ask you readers to do and over the years many, many people have been kind enough to share their thoughts about them.  This year's crew of Professionals is a large one.  I think the largest collection of pros since I started doing this.  The list is also Deeeep!

So, my huge thanks to the following who have agreed to rate this year and a special shout out to Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter and Sasha Stone of Awards Daily who were part of that first 2012 group and, I believe, the only two who have participated every year.

Here's this year's list of Professionals:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
J. Don Birnam-Jorge T/SplashReport.com
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Marshall Flores/Awards Daily
Mark Johnson/Awards Circuit
Gary Kramer/Salon
Tomris Laffly/RogerEbert.com
Scott Menzel/We Live Entertainment
Kenny Miles/We Live Entertainment
Mark Neglia/Next Best Picture
Eugene Novikov/Rotten Tomatoes
John Rhodes/Screencraft
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
Chris Willman/Variety
Anonymous

I'll have the ratings compiled and ready for posting about a week after the fest closes.


CIRCUIT BREAKER PODCAST

In Awards Circuit's Circuit Breaker podcast they launch into a full examination of Telluride specific discussion just before the 40 min. mark.  They also mention the blog you're currently reading.

Take a listen to what Clayton Davis and his crew have to say about TFF #46.  The podcast is linked here.


JOKER BITS AND PIECES

Ahead of its new trailer release and the film's debut in Venice...and...

The Joker film at the end of the weekend was releasing bits and pieces of that new trailer.  Indiewire posted a couple of the flashes of film that they had obtained on Sunday evening.

Here's a still of Robert DeNiro from one of the 10 second blips that are floating around:

 All of which appear to posted to the JokerMovie Instagram account.

THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE

For the eighth consecutive year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride.  All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".

Report your ratings with any of the following contact methods:

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

My Last Oscar Predix for 2018 / Looking at Feinberg's Forecast / Directors' Takes

Welcome to the last day of 2018 and Happy New Year!

MY LAST OSCAR PREDIX FOR 2018

I'm closing out 2018 with a look at up-to-the-minute Oscar Predictions for the four most major categories: Picture, Direction, Actress and Actor.

Actual voting begins in a week and the nomination announcement is just three weeks away (Jan. 22).

My last publication in this space for these categories was back on Dec. 10th.

Each film's past position is listed in parentheses and TFF #45 films are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) A Star Is Born (1)
2) Roma (2)
3) BlacKkKlansman (6)
4) Green Book (3)
5) Black Panther (5)
6) The Favourite (4)
7) Vice (8)
8) If Beale Street Could Talk (7)
9) Bohemian Rhapsody (-)
10) First Man (-)

Other possibles: First Reformed, Mary Poppins Returns, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

BEST DIRECTION

1) Alfonso Cuaron/Roma (1)
2) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born (2)
3) Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman (3)
4) Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite (5)
5) Peter Farrelly/Green Book (-)

Other possibles: Ryan Coogler/Black Panther, Adam McKay/Vice, Barry Jenkins/If Beale Street Could Talk, Damien Chazelle/First Man

BEST ACTRESS

1) Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born (2)
2) Glenn Close/The Wife (1)
3) Olivia Colman/The Favourite (3)
4) Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me? (4)
5) Emily Blunt/Mary Poppins Returns (5)

Other possibles: Yalitza Aparicio/Roma, Nicole Kidman/Destroyer, Toni Collette/Hereditary

BEST ACTOR

1) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born (2)
2) Christian Bale/Vice (1)
3) Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody (5)
4) Viggo Mortensen/Green Book (3)
5) Ethan Hawke/First Reformed (4)

Other possibles: John David Washington/BlacKkKlansman, Willem Dafoe/At Eternity's Gate, Ryan Gosling/First Man


LOOKING AT FEINBERG'S FORECAST

Scott Feinberg, who is the awards genius at The Hollywood Reporter recently posted his end-of-the-year take on the Oscar season for all 24 Oscar categories.  Here's how Scott assesses the Oscar fates of TFF #45 films assuming 10 Best Picture nominees:

First Man (8): Best Picture, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects.

Roma (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Aparicio), Original Screenplay, Foreign Language Film, Cinematography, Production Design

The Favourite (7): Best Picture, Actress (Colman), Supporting Actress (Stone and Weisz), Original Screenplay, Costumes, Production Design

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3): Actress (McCarthy), Supporting Actor (Grant), Adapted Screenplay

Cold War (2): Foreign Language Film, Cinematography

Single nominations for:
Boy Erased- Supporting Actress (Kidman)
Shoplifters-Foreign Language Film
Free Solo-Documentary Feature
Border-Makeup/Hair
Caroline-Live Action Short
Fauve-Live Action Short

That's a total of 33 predicted nominations for TFF #45.

The complete set of Feinberg's Forecast at The Hollywood Reporter is linked here.


DIRECTORS' TAKES

Continuing my recent trend of linking interviews and profiles of artists from TFF #45 films that are being spotlighted this awards season...

Cold War's Pawel Pawlikowski from Indiewire

Destroyer's Karyn Kusama from Deadline



That's your last MTFB for 2018.  More to come in 2019.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

The Professionals' Telluride / The Early Oscar Landscape / Toronto Awards Green Book

It's Monday and I hope your weekend was outstanding!



THE PROFESSIONALS' TELLURIDE

Here's is your 2018 installment of The Professionals view of the films that played the 44th Telluride Film Festival.  14 industry journalists participated this year by rating each film they saw on a 1-5 scale.  They were:

Peter DeBruge/Variety
David Ehrlich/Indiwire
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Stephen Galloway/The Hollywood Reporter
Gary Kramer/Salon
Mark Johnson/Awards Circuit
Tomris Laffly/RogerEbert.com
Kenny Miles/We Live Entertainment
Eugene Novikov/Film Blather
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
Anonymous

Last year The Pros had The Shape of Water out front with a 4.50 average followed by two films which tied for the second spot; Faces Places and Loveless which both averaged 4.25.
In 2016 , Moonlight was on top with a 4.87 average followed by La La Land at 4.58.
In 2015, the top film was Son of Saul at 4.44 with Anomalisa second with a 4.42.
In 2014, number one was Birdman at 4.72 and second was Foxcatcher at 4.63.
2013: 12 Years a Slave 4.70 and Blue is the Warmest Color 4.40
2012: Central Park Five 4.7 and Argo 4.5

The top ten rated films in by the Professionals since I began them in 2012:

1) Moonlight (4.87) (16)
2) Birdman (4.72) (14)
3) 12 Years a Slave (4.70-tie) (13)
3) Central Park Five (4.70-tie) (12)
5) Foxcatcher (4.63) (14)
6) La La Land (4.58) (16)
7) Argo (4.50-tie) (12)
7) The Shape of Water (4.50) (17)
9) Son of Saul (4.44) (15)
10) Anomalisa (4.42) (15)



13 of the 33 fetaures for the 45th edition of The SHOW were evaluated by enough of the Pros to merit averaging their ratings.  Here are those results:

1) Roma (4.73)
2) First Man (4.17)
3) Cold War (4.14-tie)
3) Free Solo (4.14-tie)
5) Can You Ever Forgive Me ? (4.11)
6) The Favourite (3.90)
7) Watergate (3.60)
8) Border (3.50)
9) Destroyer (3.25)
10) Boy Erased (3.20)
11) The Old Man and the Gun (3.17)
12) White Boy Rick (3.06)
13) The Front Runner (3.05)


That also means that Roma moves onto the Top Ten form the Pros since 2012.  Roma moves to #2 ahead of Birdman by 1/100th of a point and bumps Anomalisa from the list.

Here's the new Pros Top Ten:

1) Moonlight (4.87) (16)
2) Roma (4.73) (18)
3) Birdman (4.72) (14)
4) 12 Years a Slave (4.70-tie) (13)
4) Central Park Five (4.70-tie) (12)
6) Foxcatcher (4.63) (14)
7) La La Land (4.58) (16)
8) Argo (4.50-tie) (12)
8) The Shape of Water (4.50-tie) (17)
10) Son of Saul (4.44) (15)


Coming on Monday: THE COMPOSITE TELLURIDE...the combination of The People and The Professionals.


THE EARLY OSCAR LANDSCAPE

I did a quick inventory of Sasha Stone's (Awards Daily), Scott Feinberg's (The Hollywood Reporter) and Clayton Davis' (Awards Circuit) early, early mostly post-fest (TFF, Venice, Toronto) takes on their views with regard to the Oscar races. They took their first stabs at the six major categories (Picture, Director and the acting categories at the end of the week last week with Sasha's first Forecast Friday, Scott's first Feinberg Forecast and Clayton's weekly updated predictions.

Focusing on films that played TFF #45 here's what the two Oscar pundits are saying:

Stone:

First Man leads the field with five nominations according to Stone: Best Picture, Direction, Actor Supporting Actress and Supporting Actor (Jason Clarke-who is going to to be one of the peeps that I am personally rooting for).

Boy Erased is next with three: Best Actor, Supporting Actress and Supporting Actor (Crowe)  Fienberg doesn't have Boy Erased listed at the front runner level in any category.

Four films are at two nominations according to Stone in the six major categories:

Roma: Best Picture, Direction
Can You Ever Forgive Me? Best Picture, Actress
The Old Man and the Gun: Actor and Supporting Actress
The Favourite: Actress (Colman), Supporting Actress (Stone)

Feinberg has four films bunched with four nominations from among the films that played TFF #45:

First Man: Best Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress
Roma: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress
The Favourite: Best Picture, Actress (Colman), Supporting Actress (both Stone and Weisz)

Feinberg also has Cold War listed as a Best Picture front runner but not as a probable short lister for Best Foreign Language Film.

Feinberg also has Hugh Jackman as a front runner for Best Actor for The Front Runner and Melissa McCarthy for Best Actress for Can You Ever Forgive Me?

For Davis' part the lay of the land looks like this for Telluride films in the major six categories:

First Man tops the list with four: Best Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress

Next are The Favourite and Can You Ever Forgive Me? with three each

The Favourite: Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Colman) - no nominations in Supporting Actress for either Stone or Weisz)

Can You Ever Forgive Me?: Best Picture, Actress and Supporting Actor

Three films for TFF #45 get two nominations in the major six categories according to Davis:

Roma: Best Picture, Direction
Boy Erased: Best Picture, Supporting Actress
The Old Man and the Gun: Actor, Supporting Actress

Complete predictions from each expert are linked below

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit



TORONTO AWARDS GREEN BOOK

The Grolsch Audience Award for favorite film at the Toronto International Film Festival ended up being a surprise as Peter Farrelly's Green Book took the top spot.  Barry Jenkins' If Beale Street Could Talk was the first runner-up and Alfonso Cuaron's Roma was second runner-up.

Many, including myself, were surprised that Bradley Cooper's A Star Is Born didn't land the award or even crack the top three.

One other TFF #45 title made waves as Free Solo was named Best Documentary.

Here's the Indiewire story about the TIFF awards.


That's a wrap for this MOnday.  I'll have more Thursday including this year's COMPOSITE TELLURIDE.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Digging for News Nuggets / Focus Where Art Thou? / Shorts at TFF #45

Good Monday everyone...hope you had a great weekend.

DIGGING FOR NEWS NUGGETS

As last week ended a number of film-centric sites assessed the week's news from both Toronto and Venice's announcements.  Some of the included detective work regarding Telluride.  I took a look at a couple of of those stories to confirm or dispute my conclusions as well as theirs.

Here's what I discovered.

Deadline's Pete Hammond agrees with my reading of the leaves in as far as Telluride as a destination for: 

First Man

Dogman

White Boy Rick

The Front Runner

The Old Man and the Gun

Roma 

Shoplifters

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Hammond is unsure about The Favourite.  I feel fairly strongly that it makes TFF's lineup.

The Hammond story is linked here.

Meanwhile, Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter also took aim at last week's festival reveals.  His analysis says that these films are headed to Telluride that I agree are probable:

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

The Old Man and the Gun

The Front Runner

White Boy Rick

Non Fiction

First Man

Roma

Cold War

Dogman

Shoplifters

Feinberg also includes Galveston, which I suspect will not play Telluride as it screened earlier this year at South by Southwest.  Peterloo (form Mike Leigh) which I can't deduce from the TIFF or Venice announcements but still believe will play TFF #45 and the documentary Reversing Roe...which I now nothing about so I will defer to Scott.

The Feinberg piece is linked here.

This Anne Thompson piece for Indiewire suggests The Favourite is likely for Telluride.  Anne also says T-ride is probable to include:

Roma

The Other Side of the Wind

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

The Old Man and the Gun

First Man

The Front Runner

White Boy Rick

In a separate story Thompson suggests Peterloo will be added to Telluride's list.

FOCUS WHERE ART THOU?

Both Indiewire's Anne Thompson (in the second story cited above and The Playlist's Gregory Ellwood (via Twitter) mentioned that Focus Features is M.I.A. thus far from Fall Fest announcements.  Ellwood going so far as to say that he had been told that Focus wasn't going to Toronto, Venice or Telluride.

Ellwood did, however suggest that Focus Film would be playing a prime slot in Toronto during its first four days:

We also know from TIFF's announcement that Asghar Farhadi's Everybody Knows (from Focus) will play there.

I just find it hard to believe that Mary Queen of Scots, Boy Erased and On the Basis of Sex won't be playing ANY of the triumvirate of early fall fests.  Stay tuned...

SHORTS AT TFF #45

Since the discovery last week that Barry Jenkins' If Beale Street Could Talk would World Premiere at Toronto, I have wondered if Jenkins would still curate this year's shorts program for TFF #45 and additionally, if he would attend Telluride with TIFF following so closely on the heels of TFF (TIFF opens Sept. 6th).

Over the weekend we got at least part of the answer to those questions from Jenkins himself via his Twitter account:

So we now now that the master has, in fact, programmed the aforementioned shorts program.  Now the only question that remains is if Barry will be in town on Labor Day weekend.

That's your MTFB for this last Monday in July.  More tomorrow!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Byron Allen Gets Friendly With Hostiles / The Stanton Oscar Express Making Headway? / New Poster for Film Stars / First Reformed Added to NYFF

Welcome to the first Thursday in October...


BYRON ALLEN GETS FRIENDLY WITH HOSTILES

After having premiered at Telluride and playing Toronto and being announced as the opening film for the Rome Film Fest, Scott Cooper's Hostiles has finally gained distribution.

The news was revealed Tuesday that Byron Allen's fledgling Entertainment Studios.  Reports suggested that plans for the film will include an Oscar qualifying release before the end of the year and a wider release in January.

Those plans mean that Christian Bale and Rosamund Pike are probably both part of the awards conversation for acting honors and that the film could be a player in the Best Picture, Direction and Screenplay categories as well.

The film was received in a generally positive way at both Telluride and Toronto especially Bale for his portrayal of a 19th century U.S. Army Captain charged with escorting a Native American Chief (Wes Studi) to Montana from New Mexico.  The film  currently has a 67 on Rotten Tomatoes and a 63 from Metacritic.

Further coverage is here from:

Variety

Indiewire



THE STANTON OSCAR EXPRESS MAKING HEADWAY?


FOr those that have been following along, the Harry Dean Stanton for Best Actor Oscar campaign may have gotten a boost this week as Scott Feinberg, The Hollywood Reporters chief awards writer, included Stanton in his latest Feinberg Forecast,

Feinberg, doing an update of FF at the halfway mark of the New York Film Festival lists HDS as a "New" entrant on the race as a part pf a group he labels as "Major Threats".  That puts the late Stanton in Feinberg's top 12 for Oscar Best Actor.

The complete and updated version of The Feinberg Forecast is here



.NEW POSTER FOR FILM STARS


Paul McGuigan's Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool starring Annette Bening as film star Gloria Grahame and Jamie Bell has a new poster as it moves towards its Dec. 29th limited release date in the U.S..  The film is under the umbrella of Sony Pictures Classics. and in addition to having premiered at Telluride played Toronto and will play London, Mill Valley and Middleburg.

Check the new poster:

Also take a look at the story from The Express (UK).


FIRST REFORMED ADDED TO NYFF

A24 announced earlier this week that Paul Schrader's First Reformed has been added to the lineup of the on-going New York Film Festival.  The film played Telluride, Venice and Toronto.  The film stars Ethan Hawke and Amanda Seyfried.

It is scheduled to screen tomorrow evening at 6:00pm in Alice Tully Hall.  A release date has not yet been set.

Here's the rundown from NYFF.

The Composite Telluride / Goodbye Harry Dean / Toronto's Audience Award / Trailers for Film Stars and Faces Places / Post Fest Overviews

Welcome back from the weekend.  Hope you had a good one.

THE COMPOSITE TELLURIDE

Here it is for TFF #44.  The composite mash-up of ratings from both the People and the Professionals.  The Composite Telluride combines the ratings for films that came from both sets of Telluride attendees that I canvas immediately after the fest.

I began doing The Composite in 2013 and in each year the film that has finished at the top has gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar.

Here's a quick look at the top five Composite films for each year since I started:

In 2013 the top five composite films were:

1) 12 Years a Slave (9.25)
2) Tim's Vermeer (8.97)
3) Gravity (8.75)
4) Nebraska (8.38)
5) All is Lost (8.26)

In 2014 the top five were:

1) Birdman (9.18)
2) Foxcatcher (8.83)
3) The Imitation Game (8.79)
4) Wild Tales (8.43)
5) '71 (8.15)

In 2015 the top five were:

1) Spotlight (8.86)
2) Son of Saul (8.74)
3) Beasts of No Nation (8.62)
4) Steve Jobs (8.17)
5) Carol (8.13)

In 2016 the top five were:

1) Moonlight (9.19)
2) La La Land (8.91)
3) Manchester by the Sea (8.13)
4) Arrival (8.01)
5) Maudie (7.89)

And so, here are the results of this year's Composite Telluride (with their composite score and ratings position each had from The People and then The Pros):

1) The Shape of Water (8.72-2-1)
2) Lady Bird (8.58-1-5)
3) Faces Places (7.96-5-2)
4) Darkest Hour (7.90-3-8)
5) Hostiles (7.78-4-9)
6) The Rider (7.63-10-2)
7) Battle of the Sexes (7.62-6-7)
8) First Reformed (7.32-13-6)
9) Lean on Pete (7.16-7-12)
10) First They Killed My Father (7.05-15-10)
11) Loving Vincent (7.00-12-11)
12) Wonderstruck (6.68-10-13)
13) Downsizing (6.17-16-14)
14) Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (6.16-8-15)

There was some substantial disparity between The People and The Pros this year as no less than half of the films that were rated by enough members of both groups had a rank disparity of five spots or more.  The three most divisive films were The Rider and First Reformed which The Pros favored much more and also Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool which The People preferred considerably more than The Pros.

A couple of other notes...based on what past Telluride ratings have told us it looks to me like The Shape of Water, Lady Bird and Darkest Hour look like solid Best Picture nomination contenders. Battle of the Sexes, as I said in my last post, might be in some serious jeopardy in as far as Best Picture is concerned.  I know some Oscar predictors think it's in good shape but these results suggest that it might be a stretch.

Additionally, the results also look grim for Best Picture chances for Wonderstruck, Downsizing, First They Killed My Father and Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool.

Finally, I have opined that TFF #44 seemed to me to have a bunch of good films but maybe didn't have a great film and , again, the ratings might provide some evidence for that as no film from 2017 cracked the all time (well since 2013) Telluride Composite ratings list.  This year's highest rated composite film, The Shape of Water and its 8.72 rating missed making the top ten by 2/100ths of a point.

So the top ten continue to be:

1) 12 Years a Slave (9.25) 2013
2) Moonlight (9.19) 2016
3) Birdman (9.18) 2014
4) Tim's Vermeer (8.97) 2013
5) La La Land (8.91) 2016
6) Spotlight (8.86) 2015
7) Foxcatcher (8.83) 2014
8) The Imitation Game (8.79) 2014
9) Gravity (8.75) 2013
10) Son of Saul (8.74) 2015


GOODBYE HARRY DEAN

Harry Dean Stanton was an "all timer".  A GOAT, if you will.  The long time character actor was in everything and great every time:

Partial list of films:

Cool Hand Luke
The Missouri Breaks
Straight Time
Alien
Escape from New York
Repo Man
Paris, Texas (TFF 1984)***
Red Dawn
Pretty in Pink
Wild at Heart
The Straight Story
The Green Mile
and coming on Sept. 29th...Lucky.

***TFF's old timeline that used to be on the official website said that Stanton was present in Telluride that weekend.  The official program from 1984 only lists Wim Wenders as being with the film.  If anyone out there knows for sure one way or the other, drop me a line.

Stanton died on Friday at the age of 91.

Just recently we saw him back in David Lynch and Mark Frost's Twin Peaks: The Return on Showtime resurrecting the character that he had played in Twin Peaks: Fire Walk with Me.  It was a reminder of what an authentic and honest presence he was on screen.

Saturday, on Twitter, I suggested that I wanted to get the ball rolling on a Best Actor Oscar movement for Harry Dean's Lucky performance...and why not?

Most of my friends that are Oscarologists have suggested that the Best Actor Oscar field isn't as over- loaded this year and the critical response to Lucky from its festival screenings-beginning with South by Southwest back in March and has included a slew of domestic and international fests including: Nantucket, Indianapolis, Locarno, Melbourne, Helsinki and will soon include The Harry Dean Film fest as well as the BFI London Fest.

Variety's Joe Leydon writes: "Everything in his career, and his life,  has brought Harry Dean Stanton to his moment of triumph."

Indiewire's David Ehrlich said "Harry Dean Stanton gives a performance for the ages."

Brian Tallerico for RogerEbert.com wrote that Stanton is "giving one of the best performances of his remarkable career."

So...readers of MTFB...that's my drumbeat for Oscar for this year.  Harry Dean Stanton for Best Actor (OK, I'm also all about Richard Jenkins for Supporting Actor in The Shape of Water).

Here's the trailer:

Indiewire's retrospective of Stanton's best performances is here.



TORONTO'S AUDIENCE AWARD

The Toronto International Film Festival named its prize winners yesterday afternoon and it's a rare year in that there was almost no Telluride/Toronto crossover.  Faces Places won the Audience Award for Docs which is the only instance that I could find.  TIFF's feature award went to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, First Runner-up was I, Tonya and Second Runner-up was Call Me By Your Name.

I had thought that either The Shape of Water or Lady Bird would/could take the award.

The win for Three Billboards may underscore how unsettled the awards landscape is even after the Telluride/Venice/Toronto triumvirate.



TRAILERS FOR FILM STARS AND FACES, PLACES

Take a look at trailers for Paul McGuigan's Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool starring Annette Bening and Jamie Bell:

as well as for Agnes Varda and JR's Faces Places:

POST FEST OVERVIEWS

In the afterglow of Telluride, Venice and Toronto, a number of film and Oscar pundits are beginning to get serious about what we've seen and what's still to be seen.

The Hollywood Reporter posted a piece this weekend assessing their "Best of the Fall Fests" which included this TFF #44 fare:

Battle of the Sexes
Downsizing
Foxtrot
Hostiles
Lady Bird
Lean on Pete
The Shape of Water


THR's complete listing is here.

Meanwhile, Sasha Stone at Awards Daily analyzes Best Actress Oscar prospects of a number of films from a post-T-ride/TIFF/Venice perspective.

Her top five include these TFF #44 players:

Best Actress: Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water), Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes) and Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird).  She also suggests that Rosamund Pike might be a possibility for Hostiles.

Sasha's complete State of the Race article is here.



EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Screen Actors Guild Awards: Another Oscar Re-shuffle? / Rooney Mara Talks Carol / Feinberg's Latest Forecast

Good Monday and welcome to February!  We're down to less than four weeks in this Oscar season and the Best Picture race took another turn over the weekend...


SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS: ANOTHER OSCAR RE-SHUFFLE?

The Screen Actors Guild Awards were handed out late Saturday night for both film and television work.  Tom McCarthy's Spotlight won the Best Ensemble Award besting The Big Short and possibly indicating a continuing tight battle for the Best Picture Oscar.  The Big Short was perceived by many Oscar experts as having pulled into a slight lead owing to its Producers Guild Award from last weekend.  A SAG win last for ensemble would have likely strengthened that view but the win for Spotlight has caused some re-evaluation yet again.

Add to all of this that the Directors Guild announces their award this coming weekend and it could very easily award neither McCarthy or The Big Short's Adam McKay.  Plausible cases can be made that any of the other DGA nominees might pick up the trophy: Inarritu/The Reverent, Miller/Mad Max: Fury Road or Scott/The Martian.  So, the DGA could provide a sign of clarity if either McKay or McCarthy should win, or confusion should any of those other three take the award.  Perhaps a Miller or Inarittu win get their films back near the top on the Best Picture speculation.  It'll be fun reading those tea leaves next Monday.

Meanwhile, in addition to Spotlight, other TFF #42 alumni picked up SAG Awards Saturday night as Brie Larson won Best Actress for Room and Idris Elba won Best Supporting Actor for Beasts of No Nation.

Non-TFF #42 winners were Leonardo DiCaprio for Best Actor for The Revenant and Alicia Vikander for Supporting Actress for The Danish Girl.  Mad Max:Fury Road picked up the award for Stunt Ensemble as it should have.

Honestly, for what's its worth, I still semi-believe Spotlight is going to win Best Picture on Oscar night.

I have linked complete coverage and analysis of The SAG results here from The Hollywood Reporter, The Film Stage, The Playlist and Deadline:


http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/sag-awards-spotlight-victory-confirms-860909

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/2016-sag-winners-complete-list-856945/item/outstanding-performance-by-a-female-846007

http://thefilmstage.com/news/spotlight-leonardo-dicaprio-and-brie-larson-lead-2016-sag-award-winners/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/sag-award-winners-spotlight-wins-best-ensemble-leonardo-dicaprio-idris-elba-brie-larson-are-also-winners-20160130

http://deadline.com/2016/01/sag-awards-analysis-a-big-night-for-netflix-diversity-repeat-winners-and-oscar-front-runners-hammond-1201693646/



ROONEY MARA TALKS CAROL

Best Supporting Actress nominee Rooney Mara talks about Carol in this half hour YouTube video proffered by The Weinstein Company last week.  Enjoy!

Rooney Mara on Carol via YouTube

FEINBERG'S LATEST FORECAST

The Hollywood Reporter's Oscar expert, Scott Feinberg posted his latest Oscar prognostications late last week and they came prior to Saturday night's SAG results.

Feinberg's analysis suggests that TFF #42 films are positioned thusly:

Best Pic: Spotlight trailing The Big Short and Room is in his #5 spot.

Director: McCarthy/Spotlight is #4 and Abrahamson/Room is #5

Actor: Fassbender/Steve Jobs is #5

Actress: Larson/Room at #1 and Rampling/45 Years at #3 and Blanchett/Carol at #4

Supporting Actor: Ruffalo/Spotlight at #2

Supporting Actress: Mara/Carol #3, McAdams/Spotlight at #4 and Winslet/Steve Jobs at #5

Adapted Screenplay: Room at #3, Carol at #5

Original Screenplay: Spotlight at #1

Animated Feature: Anomalisa is at #2
Documentary Feature: The Look of Silence is #4 and Winter on Fire is at #5
Foreign Language Film: Son of Saul at #1
Cinematography: Carol at #4
Costumes: Carol at #1
Film Editing: Spotlight at #5
Original Score: Carol at #4


If Scott is right TFF #42 films pick up four Oscars on Feb. 28.


Come back for more on Thursday!

Contact me at:

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Oscar Matters:"Son of Saul" for BP?, Gold Derby, THR Podcast / Morgan Talks "Suffragette" / Welcome Marty!

Good Thursday Friends and Neighbors!


OSCAR MATTERS: "SON OF SAUL" FOR BEST PICTURE

I thought when it showed up at Telluride as the only film that Sony Classics had in the lineup that we were seeing a signal that SPC had big ambitions for Laszlo Nemes Cannes Grand Prix winning "Son of Saul".

How big?  How about a serious drive for more than the expected Best Foreign Language Film Oscar nomination?  I was telling people that were asking that weekend that it seemed the film has a real shot at a Best Picture nomination.

Now, Clayton Davis at Awards Circuit has posted his belief that it could not only play for that nomination (and several other major noms) but that he thinks "Saul" could be a real threat to win the big prize in late February.

I'm not there yet (my money is still divided between "Spotlight" and "The Revenant") but the Davis story is interesting.  Check it here:

http://www.awardscircuit.com/2015/10/06/oscar-circuit-could-son-of-saul-become-the-first-foreign-best-picture-winner/



OSCAR MATTERS: GOLD DERBY

The latest Gold Derby expert odds for the Best Picture odds still favors Tom McCarthy's "Spotlight" at odds of 6 to1 to win.

Other TFF #42 films in the Gold Derby odds are "Steve Jobs" at the #2 spot with odds of 8 to1; "Carol" at #5 with odds of 12 to 1.  "Room" is at #7 with odds of 18 to 1.

Take a look at all of the Gold Derby latest odds here:

http://www.goldderby.com/news/10494/oscar-predictions-spotlight-steve-jobs-the-revenant-danish-girl-bridge-of-spies-975386420.html


OSCAR MATTERS: THR PODCAST

Here's the link to The Hollywood Reporters latest episode of their Awards Chatter podcast featuring Scott Feinberg and his guest this week: Sir Ridley Scott:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/awards-chatter-podcast-ep-5-829827



MORGAN TALKS "SUFFRAGETTE"

This week Variety/InContention's Kristopher Tapley put up a lengthy interview with Abi Morgan, writer of "Suffragette".  Take a look at an interesting discussion of women and film here:

http://variety.com/2015/film/in-contention/suffragette-writer-didnt-set-out-to-make-a-feminist-film-1201612109/


WELCOME MARTY!

Those who are fans of the "Back to the Future" trilogy know that we have reached the point in time that is the "Future" of BTTF.  2015.  Marty McFly should be showing up soon. (less than two weeks from now).  As a part of the hoopla, you might have seen the "trailer" for "Jaws 19" which, as you may recall, is playing at the cinema in future Hill Valley.  If you haven't seen it...

"Jaws 19" trailer via YouTube

That'll do for a Thursday...

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

Birdman Has Premiered in Venice/Already Thinking Oscar/Sound on Sight Takes a Stab/Scott Feinberg Talks Telluride TODAY!/Remember to Rate/SHOW in the Park

Good Wednesday Everyone...

The Patterson Express to Telluride, Colorado departs the station later today.  The CEO and I will make about 2/3 of the journey this afternoon/evening and then finish the drive into The 'Ride tomorrow morning. We have plans and errands that must be completed Thursday before the whole shebang kicks off on Friday morning with the Patron brunch...

FINAL "TEN BETS" LIST...

I'll be posting my final "Ten Bets" on the road tomorrow morning.  I hope I'm ahead of the curve here.  Last year, the full lineup was leaked way early and if that happens again tonight or early tomorrow morning the final Ten Bets will become superfluous really fast.

Here's hoping that doesn't happen.

"BIRDMAN" HAS PREMIERED IN VENICE

As I type this, reports and reviews are coming in for Alejandro Inarritu's "Birdman" starring Michael Keaton and the general tenor seems to be overwhlemingly positive...some bordering on ecstatic.  I'm staying away from reading the body of reviews as I want to experience the film, should it play in Telluride, with as clean a pallette as I can muster...


ALREADY THINKING OSCAR

Movie City News has its first Gurus of Gold up for the 2014-15 edition of Oscar.  Gold Derby has also weighed in with a pre-festival stab at guessing which films Oscar will favor this year.  MCN's Gurus list David Fincher's "Gone Girl", Alejandro Inarritu's "Birdman", Angelina Jolie's "Unbroken" and Richard Linklater's "Boyhood" all tied in the top spot.  Meanwhile, the Gold Derby handicappers have  "Boyhood" with the best odds to win Best Picture.

From the MCN Gurus, other probable Telluride films listed in consideration for Best Picture are: "Foxcatcher", "Wild", "The Imitation Game", "Mr. Turner" and "Rosewater".

Gold Derby lists: "Foxcatcher", "Birdman", "Wild", "The Imitation Game", "Mr. Turner", "The Homesman" and "Rosewater".

Added note:  Gold Derby also lists "Whiplash" which, while not on my list of likely T-ride films, persistently shows up in predictions by others as a Telluride possibility.

Links to The Gurus of Gold:

http://moviecitynews.com/2014/08/gurus-o-gold-pre-venicetelluridetoronto-best-picture-field/

And to Gold Derby:

http://www.goldderby.com/handicapping/oscars-2014-nominations-nominations/best-picture.html


SOUND ON SIGHT TAKES A STAB

Soundonsight.org provides an overview of the Telluride Film Festival and makes some guesses about films they feel might play.  Here's what they get wrong: "Unbroken", "Queen of the Desert", "The Theory of Everything" and "Winter Sleep".  They get a couple right.  Take a look here:

http://www.soundonsight.org/telluride-film-festival-2014-most-anticipated/


SCOTT FEINBERG TALKS TELLURIDE TODAY!

Scott Feinberg of  The Hollywood Reporter will be talking Telluride today for The Huffington Post.  I expect he'll have a pretty good bead on what's likely to play at this year's fest so you might want to tune in.  The link for that is here:

http://live.huffingtonpost.com/r/segment/for-your-consideration-telluride-film-festival-/53f7b5d602a760387000018e


REMEMBER TO RATE

Now that we're down to Telluride week, here's your reminder...Don't forget to join in on "The People's Telluride".  Rate the films you see this week on a 0-5 scale ( 0 being just abysmal and 5 being a masterpiece).  You can rate each day or do them all at the end of the fest.  Send film ratings to me via Twitter (@Gort2) or email me at michael_speech@hotmail.com or in the comments section of this blog.

I'll collect all of that data and post the collective ratings from we, The People.

SHOW IN THE PARK

Two or three local websites out of Telluride posted late yesterday that the Roger Ebert documentary "Life Itself" will be shown in Elks Park on Thursday night (so, it finlly shows at Telluride a year after I was just certain that it would...I don't get 'em all).  Those films are often a harbinger of one of the Tributes. But for the life of me, I can't quite figure this thing out.  I have my ear to the ground on this one and if I get it puzzled out, I'll let you know in tomorrow's post...or Friday's...

Here's the Facebook post from The Telluride Festivarian with the lowdown on the Thursday presentation:

https://www.facebook.com/TellurideFestivarian/posts/755101827880993


More tomorrow from the road to Telluride...


Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

THR on Who Goes Where: Telluride vs. Toronto/The Playlist's 100 Most Anticipated and T-ride/Gold Derby's Latest Odds

Welcome to another Thursday in the Monkey House (there's your Vonnegut reference for today)...

THR ON WHO GOES WHERE (Telluride vs. Toronto)

Analysts continue to parse the meaning of the announcement from the Toronto International Film Festival about programming decisions for their first four days and their opening and closing films.

Scott Feinberg weighed in on Tuesday with a piece for The Hollywood Reporter detailing some guesswork involving various directors and their possible loyalties vis-a-vis Tellurdie and Toronto.

That piece is linked here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/telluride-toronto-forced-pick-one-675681

I also include it in today's blogpost because Feinberg references the Werner Herzog Theater as "The Zog".  Readers of this space and friends who came to the 2013 "Guide to the Ride" reception in Telluride know that "The Zog" was the nickname that I said I was going to try to push as a nifty shorthand for the new facility.  Now, I'm not claiming that the THR reference springs from that attempt...but I'm very close to saying that...


THE PLAYLIST'S 100 MOST ANTICIPATED AND TELLURIDE

The Playlist has put together the 100 films they are the most excited about that will/may premiere in 2014. Taking my cue from them, I've tried to parse the Telluride possibilities beginning with the films listed from 51-100:

The Complete list/post is here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/we-rank-the-100-most-anticipated-films-of-2014-the-best-films-of-the-2014-20140102

And here are what seem to me to be the likeliest candidates for Labor Day in the San Juans:

#96- Michel Hazanavicius' "The Search" starring Berenice Bejo.  A drama set in Chechnya.  Hazanavicius "The Artist" played Cannes and Telluride in 2011.  It wouldn't surprise me if this film made the same journey in 2014.

#90- Andrey Zvyagintsev's "Leviafan"-The Playlist calls it a social drama set in a fictional "new country".  The film sounds ambitious and intriguing.  They also seem to think it's a highly probable Cannes entry and that's enough for me to be thinking I should put it on the Telluride watch list.

#87-Tim Burton's "Big Eyes"-Christoph Waltz and Amy Adams...yes please.  The Weinstein Company has this in their basket and the thinking is that they may want to push it come awards season.  It's based on the life of painter Margaret Keane (Adams).   I can see tribute possibilities for Burton...


#77-"Suite Francaise"- This is a World War II set love story with complicatons.  Weinstein's have it and The Playlist explicitly says that Telluride is likely...of course that pronouncement came before the Toronto change of protocol.

#55-"Far From the Madding Crowd"-We've mentioned this film in earlier posts from other lists.  The biggest reasons to think it would be Telluride bound: the director-Thomas Vinterberg and the production company (and likely distributor)- Fox Searchlight.

#51-Untitled Noah Baumbach/Greta Gerwig Public School Project-  Because it's Baumbach and he's made a habit of coming to Telluride.


I'll take a look at The Playlist's films from 1-50 on Monday.

GOLD DERBY'S LATEST OSCAR ODDS

Here's the latest line from The Gold Derby on Best Picture Oscar odds:

http://www.goldderby.com/stats/experts/oscars-2013/best-picture.html

It still looks very likely that Best Picture went through Telluride.

More on Monday...Have a great weekend.