Vanity Fair's Too Early Oscar Picks and TFF / Cannes Speculation and TFF / The Best Docs of the 21st Century and TFF

VANITY FAIR'S TOO EARLY OSCAR PICKS AND TFF

I'm continuing my current project of scouring early Oscar prognostications for possible titles that might pop up at the 51st Telluride Film Festival.  Today's source is Joe Reid of Vanity Fair. These predicted films seem to me to have the best chance at TFF (listed in the order they are presented in the article):

Megalopolis- Dir: Frances Ford Coppola

Hard Truths- Dir: Mike Leigh

Blitz- Dir: Steve McQueen

Bird- Dir: Andrea Arnold

The End- Dir: Joshua Oppenheimer

Conclave- Dir: Edward Berger

The Actor- Dir: Duke Johnson

The Piano Lesson- Dir: Malcolm Washington

Maria- Dir: Pablo Larrain

The Nickel Boys- Dir: RaMell Ross

Queer; Dir: Luca Guadagnino

Long Day's Journey Into Night- Dir: Jonathan Kent

The Apprentice- Dir: Ali Abbasi

SNL 1975- Dir: Jason Reitman

The complete list of Vanity Fair predictions is linked here.

CANNES SPECULATION AND TFF

In addition to Oscar speculation as a way to sense some of the films that could be on their way to Telluride, the films that are selected for inclusion at the Cannes Film Festival merit investigation.

Each year there are a number of films that end up playing at Cannes in May and again as a North American premiere at TFF.  Last year I logged 10 films that played both fests including Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest and The Teachers' Lounge.  The average is around eight per year.

So, to begin that part of the process, I took a look at Screen Daily's annual Cannes speculation  article that was posted a week ago.  Screen Daily divides its list geographically.  That said, here are what feel like films that could possibly make the Cannes/Telluride connection:

Anora- Dir: Sean Baker

Maria- Dir: Pablo Larrain

Megalopolis- Dir: Frances Ford Coppola

Bird- Dir: Andrea Arnold

The End- Dir: Joshua Oppenheimer

Emilia Perez-Jacques Audiard

Dear Paris- Dir: Marjane Satrapi

The complete Screen Daily article is linked here.

THE BEST DOCS OF THE 21ST CENTURY AND TFF

Indiewire posted a list of what they have determined to be the 52 best documentaries of the 21st century.  Not surprisingly a good number of the films that made the list also made an appearance at the Telluride Film Festival.

Here's the list of docs from the top 52 that screened at TFF.  These are listed in reverse order by where Indiewire ranked them.  The year the doc appeared at Telluride is indicated to the title's right in parentheses:

43) The Central Park Five (2012)\

31) Procession (2021)

29) Fire at Sea (2016)

17) Waltz with Bashir (2008)

13) Bowling for Columbine (2002)

10) The Look of Silence (2015)

9) Stories We Tell (2013)

6) Faces Places (2017)

5) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (2022)

4) Flee (2021)

1) The Act of Killing (2013)

The complete list of 52 including description and analysis is linked here.

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Oscar Predictions: Below the Line Part One / Berlin Closes / Features for TFF #44 Films Heroin(e) and Loveless

It's Monday...Oscar is less than a week away.


OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BELOW THE LINE PART ONE

I'm taking a look today at eight additional categories for this year's 90th Oscar ceremony. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Coco is an incredibly prohibitive favorite.  If there were a spoiler it might be The Breadwinner.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

This is all over the place.  I've run across support for the notion of any one of the five films winning the trophy Sunday night.  For the moment, let's call the winner A Fantastic Woman with The Square and Loveless also possible.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Another difficult race.  Let's say Faces/Places with Icarus as the upset possible.

BEST FILM EDITING

A tight race between Dunkirk and Baby Driver.  I'm going with Dunkirk.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will it be Roger Deakins year, finally, for Blade Runner 2049?   I'm saying yes but there is also a lot of support for Dunkirk and The Shape of Water.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Shape of Water seems most likely followed by Blade Runner 2049.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Another toss up.  I'm going with Remember Me from Coco with This Is Me from The GReatest Showman as the upset special.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Alexandre Desplat looks to have the inside track for The Shape of Water.  Hans Zimmer could get it for Dunkirk.

I'll have a set of predictions on Thursday for the remaining eight categories and the comprehensive final set of predictions in a special Sunday edition of MTFB.



BERLIN CLOSES

The 68th Berlin International Film Festival came to a close over the weekend with The Golden Bear going to Adina Pintilie's Touch Me Not.

Berlin has been a noticeable touchstone for films that end up playing Telluride in the fall with such films as A Fantastic Woman and The Other Side of Hope being examples from last year.

The Berlin-Telluride crossover has been very common as this list attests:

2016: Fire at Sea (Golden Bear winner), Things to Come
2015: Taxi (Golden Bear winner), 45 Years, Ixcanul
2014: 50 Year Argument, '71, The Decent One, Diplomacy
2013: Gloria, Fifi Howls from Happiness, Le Maison de la Radio, Slow Food Story, On Death Row
2012: Barbara, A Royal Affair
2011: Forgiveness of Blood, Mondo Lux, Pina, A Separation (Golden Bear winner), Target, The Turin Horse
2010: Daniel Schmid, If I Want to Whistle I Whistle, The Illusionist
2009: Gigante, London River
2008: Happy-Go-Lucky, I've Lover You So Long
2007: The Counterfeiters

Last year I listed five Berlin films that I thought were the most likely to continue the trend with both Fantastic Woman and Other Side of Hope making that list (The other mentions were The Party, On Body and Soul and Spoor.

But...I have to tell you that I have no films from this year's Berlin Fest that are pinging my TFF sonar.

If forced to name some possibilities, I'd probably guess:

Alonso Ruizpalzcios' Museum
Christian Petzold's Transit
Aleksey German's Dovlatov
Malgorzata Szumowska's Mug
Marcelo Martinessi's The Heiresses
Erik Poppe's U: July 22


Here's coverage of the Berlin fests awards from Variety. 

And also from Indiewire.


FEATURES FOR TFF #44 FILMS: HEROIN(E) AND LOVELESS

I ran across a couple of articles that focused on two films that played TFF #44 and are Oscar nominated.

Business Insider took a look this week at the Short Doc Oscar nominated Heroin(e) which focuses on the opioid epidemic in a small town in West Virginia.

That profile is here.

And I also tumbled across an Ioncinema interview with twice Oscar nominated Russian director Andrey Zvyagintsev (Leviathan) whose Loveless is nominated for Best Foreign Language Film this year.

That interview is here.


That''s a wrap for MTFB for this Monday.  More coming Thursday.


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MTFB/FAC Final Oscar Nomination Predictions / The FAC Oscar Nomination Breakdown / Final Oscar Predictions from Experts / Producers Guild Awards The Shape of Water / SAG-AFtra Likes Three Billboards

It's Monday and in less than 24 hours we will know the Oscar nominees for the 90th Edition of the awards...


MTFB/FAC FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

Here they are...the final predictions for Oscar nominations.  Historically, The FAC is accurate 75%-80%.  It's also worth noting that in those categories where The FAC misses the sixth predicted nominee pops up  more than half of the time.

Nomination predictions are alphabetical.  "Others" are listed in the order of their probability of displacing one of the predicted nominees.

TFF #44 films are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

Call Me By Your Name

Dunkirk

The Florida Project

Get Out

Lady Bird

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Others: (in order of likelihood): Darkest Hour, I, Tonya, The Big Sick, Phantom Thread

BEST DIRECTION

Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards
Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
Jordan Peele/Get Out

Others: Steven Spielberg/The Post, Sean Baker/The Florida Project, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name

BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game
Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird

Others: Meryl Streep/The Post, Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Michelle Williams/All the Money in the World

BEST ACTOR

Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name

Daniel Day-Lewis/Phantom Thread

James Franco/The Disaster Artist

Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour

Others: Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq., Tom Hanks/The Post, Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
Hong Chau/Downsizing
Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird

Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Lesley Manville/Phantom Thread

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project

Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name

Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards

Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water

Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards

Others: Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly's Game
Mudbound
Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards

Others: The Post, Phantom Thread, I, Tonya

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

A Fantastic Woman
Foxtrot
In the Fade
Loveless
The Square

Others; The Insult, The Wound, Felicitie


ANIMATED FEATURE

The Breadwinner
The Boss Baby
Coco
The Lego Batman Movie
Loving Vincent

Others: Ferdinand, Despicable Me 3, Cars 3

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Faces Places
Icarus
Jane
The Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island

Others: City of Ghosts, Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Long Strange Trip


FILM EDITING

Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Get Out
Three Billboards
The Shape of Water

Others: The Post, I Tonya, Lady Bird

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

Others:Three Billboards, The Post, Call Me By Your Name

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

Others: The Post,  I Tonya, The Greatest Showman

COSTUME DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

Others: The Post,  I Tonya, The Greatest Showman

MAKEUP AND HAIR

Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
Wonder

Others: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Bright, Ghosts in the Shell

ORIGINAL SCORE

Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Post
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Three Billboards

ORIGINAL SONG

The Mystery of Love/Call Me By Your Name
Remember Me/ Coco
This Is Me/The Greatest Showman
Stand Up for Something/Marshall
Mighty River/Mudbound

Others: Evermore/Beauty and the Beast, It Ain't Fair/Detroit, Prayers for This World/Cries From Syria

VISUAL EFFECTS

Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water
War for the Planet of the Apes

Others: Okja, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Valerian

SOUND EDITING

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water

Others: Wonder Woman, Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes

SOUND MIXING

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water

Others: Get Out, Wonder Woman, War for the Planet of the Apes

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Dekalb Elementary
Facing Mecca
Lost Face
Watu Wote
Witnesses

Others: My Nephew Emmett, The Silent Child, Eleven O'Clock


ANIMATED SHORT

Cradle
Dear Basketball
In a Heartbeat
Lou
Negative Space

Others: Revolting Rhymes, Life Smartphone, Fox and the Whale


DOCUMENTARY SHORT

116 Cameras
Alone-The New York Times
Edith and Eddie
Heroin(e)
Kayayo-The Living Shopping Baskets

Others: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405, Ten Meter Tower, Traffic Stop


THE FAC OSCAR NOMINATION BREAKDOWN

If the FAC is 100% accurate tomorrow morning (and it will actually be between 70%-80% accurate if the past is prologue), here are some interesting notes:

TFF #44 films will collect 29 total nominations.

The Shape of Water will lead all nominees with 13: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.  The film could tie La La Land's all time total of 14 or even go to 15 with additional nominations for Octavia Spencer (very possible) and/or Michael Shannon (unlikely).

Darkest Hour (6): Best Actor, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Makeup and Hair.  Don't go to sleep on Darkest Hour's Best Picture chances.  If the BP field extends past eight films, it could slip in.  Strong support in the craft categories and a strong vote from British Academy members could all create enough heat to propel it onto the list.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay.  If Lady Bird picks up a sixth nomination expect it to be for Film Editing (not likely) which could signal that it is still very solid contender for BP.  Tracy Letts has a way, way outside shot at Best Supporting Actor.

Other TFF #44 films The FAC says get nominated:

Hong Chau/Best Supporting Actress-Downsizing
Foreign Language Film nominees: A Fantastic Woman, Foxtrot, Loveless
Loving Vincent/Animated Feature
Faces Places/Documentary Feature
Heroin(e)/Documentary Short


Other films with four or more nominations:

Dunkirk-8
Three Billboards-7
Call Me By Your Name-5
Get Out-5
Blade Runner 2049-4
Mudbound-4
Phantom Thread-4


FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM EXPERTS

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention

Tapley Predicts the following nominations for TFF #44 films

The Shape of Water (11)- Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Hawkins), Supporting Actor (Jenkins), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.

Lady Bird (5)- Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Ronan), Supporting Actress (Metcalf), Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (5)- Actor (Oldman), Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Original Score, Production Design

Downsizing (1)- Supporting Actress (Chau)

Loving Vincent (1)- Animated Feature

A Fantastic Woman (1)- Foreign Language Film

The Insult (1)- Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1)- Foreign Language Film

Faces Places (1)- Documentary

Heroin(e) (1)- Documentary Short

Tapley's Telluride total = 28 nominations


Here's his complete set of final Oscar nomination predictions.

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

The Shape of Water (12): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay. Film Editing, Cinematography,  Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Visual Effects.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (3): Actor, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair

Downsizing (1): Supporting Actress

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature

Stone doesn't predict the Short Film categories.

Stone's total predictions for TFF #44 films: 26 nominations


Stone's complete "Predictions Friday" post is here.


Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

The Shape of Water (14): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Costumes, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (4): Actor, Production Design, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair

Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (1) Adapted Screenplay

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

The Insult (1) Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature

Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short

Davis' total predictions for TFF #44 films: 31.

Davis complete final predictions are here.

Scott Feinberg/Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter

The Shape of Water (12):  Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (7): Best Picture, Actor, Production Design, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Costumes, Original Score

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short

Feinberg's total predictions for TFF #44 films: 29.

Feinberg's complete final predictions are here.


Erik Anderson and The Gold Rush Gang/Awards Watch


The Shape of Water (13): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Costumes, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Sound Mixing, Visual Effects

Darkest Hour (6): Actor, Cinematography, Original Score, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature

Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short

Anderson and crew predict a total of 30 nominations for TFF #44 films.

Their complete predictions are here.

THE PRODUCERS GUILD AWARDS THE SHAPE OF WATER

Ahead of its expected announcement as the leader in number of Oscar nominations tomorrow, The Producers Guild names Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water their Best Picture of the Year on Saturday night.

It's worth noting that The PGA has a preferential ballot like Oscar does.  It;s also worth noting that La La Land won the PGA and led all films in Oscar nominations last year and look how that turned out.

I have linked coverage and analysis from:

Awards Daily

Variety

Indiewire

SAG-AFTRA LIKES THREE BILLBOARDS

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri cleaned up at last night's SAG-AFTRA Awards claiming the Best Ensemble prize along with wins for Frances McDormand for Best Actress and Sam Rockwell for Best Supporting Actor.

Though the voting for Oscar nominations has been over for a few days, this turn of events along with The Shape of Water's win at the PGA on Saturday seems to indicate a two film race between Three Billboards and Shape for the Best Picture Oscar.

Many of the Oscar experts I follow, however are saying that both Get Out and Lady Bird aren't out of the race yet.

I have linked analysis from: 

Kristopher Tapley-Variety/In Contention

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Pete Hammond-Deadline

That's it for this Monday.  I'll post Oscar nominees and a few thoughts tomorrow after the nominees are announced in a SPECIAL POST of Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse.

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The FAC Predicts Foreign, Animated, Doc and Shorts / The Film Stage Looks Forward to 2018 / Hope for The Other Side the Wind

Good Thursday film friends and a big shout out to any and all of you Sundancers as that film fest launches today.  What will be this year's Get Out, Mudbound or Call Me By Your Name?


THE FAC PREDICTS FOREIGN, ANIMATED, DOC AND SHORTS

There are just a few days left before the live reveal of all 24 categories of nominations for the Oscars for this year.  That is set to happen early on Tuesday morning, Jan. 23rd.  In my last post I updated a bunch of major categories and included predictions on a number of feature "under the line" categories.  Today, I complete the circle with predictions for the remaining six categories not covered on Monday.

As always, TFF #44 films are in Bold.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Foxtrot
2) Loveless
3) A Fantastic Woman
4) The Square
5) In the Fade

Others: The Insult, The Wound and Felicite.

Comment: This could be the most Telluride-centric category of the bunch.  If The Insult could supplant The Square or In the Fade, TFF #44 films would be 4 of the 5 nominees.  Realistically, the only other category that might approach that is Best Supporting Actress and that assumes that Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water-possible) Hong Chau (Downsizing-possible) or Kristen Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour-unlikely) join all but certain nominees Allison Janney (I, Tonya) and Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird).

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Coco
2) The Breadwinner
3) Loving Vincent
4) Lego Batman
5) The Boss Baby

Others: Despicable Me 3, Cars 3, Ferdinand


BEST DOCUMENTARY

1) Jane
2) Faces Places
3) Strong Island
4) Icarus
5) Last Men in Aleppo

Others: City of Ghosts, Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Long Strange Trip


LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Dekalb Elementary
2) Facing Mecca
3) Watu Wote
4) Witnesses
5) Lost Face

Others: My Nephew Emmett, The Silent Child, The Eleven O'Clock

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Dear Basketball
2) Lou
3) Cradle
4) In a Heartbeat
5) Negative Space

Others: Revolting Rhymes, Life Smartphone, Fox and the Whale


DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Eddie and Edith
2) Heroin(e)
3) Kayayo-The Living Shopping Baskets
4) Alone-The New York Times
5) 116 Cameras

Others: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405, Ten Meter Tower, Traffic Stop


Added to the predicted total from last Monday's post, if The FAC is 100% accurate (and it won't be), TFF #44 films will collectively earn 30 Oscar nominations on Tuesday.  The average for TFF #44 over the past several years is 27.

Last year, though was an all timer for TFF as TFF #43 films racked up a total of 42 nominations.


THE FILM STAGE LOOKS FORWARD TO 2018

The Film Stage published their list of 100 "Most Anticipated" films for 2018 last week and a number of titles that I believe have Telluride potential made their list.

For example:

#99-First Man
#95- Backseat (the Adam McKay Dick Cheney film starring Christian Bale)
#94- The Widow
#93- The Little Stranger
#79- Kursk
#77- At Eternity's Gate (does Julian Schnabel return to Telluride?)
#71-Mid-90's
#67- Where Is Anne Frank?
#61- The Death and Life of John F. Donovan
#52- Private Life
#50-Boy Erased
#48- Cold War
#46- The Sisters Brothers (does Audiard return to Telluride?)
#34- Sunset
#30- The Man Who Killed Don Quixote
#28- Peterloo
#27- The Women of Marwen
#26- Roma
#16- E-Book
#11- Everybody Knows (does Farhadi return to Telluride?)
#8- Widows (Steve McQueen...)
#4- Maya
#2- If Beale Street Could Talk

The complete Film Stage post is here.



HOPE FOR THE OTHER SIDE OF THE WIND

For months now, we have been anticipating the arrival of the restoration of Orson Welles unfinished final film The Other Side of the Wind.  We knew that the work to put it together had been continuing. 

The anticipation may finally have a payoff.  The Film Stage reports that a version of the film was screened this week.  The Film Stage tweeted that information last night (derived from a WellesNet.com tweet:

This increases the chances that we could see the film in eight months in the San Juans.  Fingers crossed.

Here's The Film Stage with additional information on the project.

That's your MTFB for today.  Come back on Monday for final Oscar nomination predictions!

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Golden Globe Nominations / New Trailers: Loveless and Lean on Pete / Documentary Short List

Good Monday to everyone...


GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS

I'll publish this morning before the nomination announcement...so...come back a little later today and I'll have the nominees and a note or two about what happened and TFF #44's impact on whatever is announced.

TFF #44 Golden Globe nominations: 19

The Shape of Water led all nominees with 7.

The Shape of Water (7): Best Picture-Drama, Best Actress/Drama-Sally Hawkins, Supporting Actress-Octavia Spencer, Supporting Actor-Richard Jenkins, Direction, Screenplay, Score.

Lady Bird (4): Best Picture-Musical/Comedy, Best Actress-Saoirse Ronan, Supporting actress-Laurie Metcalf, Screenplay.

Battle of the Sexes (2): Best Actress-Musical/Comedy-Emma Stone, Best actor-Musical/Comedy-Steve Carell

Darkest Hour (1): Gary Oldman

Downsizing (1): Supporting Actress-Hong Chau

Loving Vincent (1)-Animated Film

First They Killed My Father (1)-Foreign Language Film

A Fantastic Woman (1)-Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1)-Foreign Language Film

You can find a complete list of all the Golden Globe nominations here.

NEW TRAILERS FOR LOVELESS AND LEAN ON PETE

Trailer for Loveless from YouTube:

Trailer for Lean on Pete from YouTube:

DOCUMENTARY SHORT LIST

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences named the 15 documentary features on this year's short list for Oscar consideration.  TFF #44 docs are CAPITALIZED*


Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Chasing Coral
City of Ghosts
Ex Libris
FACES PLACES*
HUMAN FLOW*
Icarus
AN INCONVIENENT SEQUEL:TRUTH TO POWER*
Jane
LA92
Last Men in Aleppo
Long Strange Trip
One of Us
Strong Island
Unrest

More coming later today following the Golden Globe announcement.


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COMMENT to the blog.

The FAC Updates Best Pic and Director Predix / Independent Spirit Awards Nominations Announced / Film Stars Has a Trailer / Looking at The Post and Phantom Thread / Let's Talk Richard Jenkins

Happy Thanksgiving!  Nov. 23, 2017...I'm thankful that there are actual readers of this space.  Thank you!


THE FAC UPDATES BEST PIC AND DIRECTOR PREDICTIONS

For the third time this Oscar season, The Film Awards Clearinghouse takes a stab at predicting the nominees for Best Picture and Best Direction.  This coming just after this week's first screening of Steven Spielberg's The Post and the announcement of nominees for The Independent Spirit Awards (see below).

My last look at these two categories was Oct. 30th.  As always, TFF #44 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

Here's where the Best Picture race seemed to stand three and a half weeks ago:

1) Dunkirk
2) The Shape of Water
3) Darkest Hour
4) Three Billboards
5) Call Me By Your Name
6) The Post
7) Get Out
8) The Florida Project

Others: Lady Bird, Mudbound, I Tonya

And here we are as of today:


1) Dunkirk
2) The Shape of Water
3) Three Billboards
4) Get Out
5) Darkest Hour
6) Call Me By Your Name
7) The Post
8) Lady Bird

Others: The Florida Project, Mudbound, I Tonya

Comments: Get Out, Three Billboards, The Post and Lady Bird seem to have some wind at their backs.  Darkest Hour and The Florida Project feel like they're losing some steam.


BEST DIRECTION

Here's the chart from Oct. 30th:

1) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk

2) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water

3) Joe Wright/Darkest Hour

4) Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards

5) Steven Spielberg/The Post

Other Possibilities: Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name, Jordan Peele/Get Out, Dee Rees/Mudbound

And today's update:

1) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
2) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
3) Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards
4) Steven Spielberg/The Post
5) Jordan Peele/Get Out

Others: Joe Wright/Darkest Hour, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name, Dee Rees/Mudbound

Comments: Nolan, Del Toro and McDonagh all seem solid.  After them, though, it's a mess.



INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARDS NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

Telluride 2017 films accounted for 11 Independent Spirit nominations this week.  Both Lady Bird and The Rider nabbed four apiece.

Lady Bird: Best Feature, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best Screenplay

The Rider: Best Feature, Best Direction, Best Cinematography, Best Editing

Faces Places: Best Documentary

A Fantastic Woman: Best International Film

Loveless: Best International Film

The complete nominations list is here.

Oscar analysis is here from Gold Derby and here from Indiewire.



FILM STARS HAS A TRAILER

Annette Bening stars as classic film icon Gloria Grahame in Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool which dropped a new trailer this last week.  The film also stars Jamie Bell.

Here's the trailer from YouTube:

LOOKING AT THE POST AND PHANTOM THREAD

They aren't TFF films but I am very interested in both Steven Spielberg's Pentagon Papers drama, The Post and the latest (and purportedly final) collaboration between Paul Thomas Anderson and Daniel Day Lewis-Phantom Thread.  Both films have new video out this week and so for those of you that share a curiosity about these two films I have posted the video here:

The first is a new television commercial for The Post (from YouTube):

And here's what is billed as Phantom Thread's Sneak Preview Announcement:

LET'S TALK RICHARD JENKINS FOR THE SHAPE OF WATER

Many of you know that I have been not so subtly banging the drum for a Best Actor nomination for Harry Dean Stanton's final performance in John Carroll Lynch's Lucky but I wanted to remind everyone that the "below-the-radar" performance from TFF #44 is for Richard Jenkins' killer supporting turn in Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water.

I have been told that Michael Shannon as the villain of the piece has a better shot but I'm not so sure.  Jenkins has a previous nomination for Best Actor for 2009's The Visitor.

I do see Jenkins pop up here and there on some of the Oscar prediction websites, so I'm not alone in thinking that it's possible.

This week PrideSource.org features Jenkins in an interview as they discussed The Shape of Water and his career.  That interview is here.



That's your Thanksgiving Day MTFB.  Hope it's a great holiday for you.  I'll have more on Monday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

The Inventory from TFF #44 / FAC Oscar Update:Best Picture and Direction / Eligible Documentaries Announced / Releasing News

Good final Monday in October to you...



THE INVENTORY FROM TFF #44

I recently completed my annual canvas of minutiae from this year's Telluride Film Festival and thought I'd share some of the tidbits of the information from that.

Starting with the distributors.  Long time Telluride attendees and/or readers of this space know that Sony Pictures Classics is almost always well represented at the festival.  I've been going to Telluride since 2006 and in that time SPC has averaged nearly five films per fest.  SPC held true to that form this year with five films: A Fantastic Woman, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Foxtrot, Loveless and The Rider.

Five other distributors screened multiple films over Labor Day weekend:

A24: First Reformed, Lady Bird and Lean on Pete
Fox Searchlight: Battle of the Sexes and The Shape of Water
Cohen Media Group: Faces Places and The Insult
Netflix: First They Killed My Father and Wormwood
Amazon Studios: Wonderstruck and Human Flow

Nine other distributors had films on the TFF #44 schedule including Focus Features (Darkest Hour), Paramount (Downsizing),  HBO Films (Arthur Miller:Writer) and PBS (The Vietnam War).

Unusually, there were no films from Sundnace Selects/IFC Films, Open Road, Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions or Warner Brothers which have all been common players in recent years at Telluride.  And, also, no films from the currently beleaguered Weinstein Company.

As of this post, seven TFF #44 films did not yet have distribution in the U.S.:

Eating Animals
Hostages
Land of the Free
Love, Cecil
A Man of Integrity
Tesnota
The Venerable W

Film Festival crossovers...films that were shared by TFF and some other major fests:

Berlin: A Fantastic Woman, Hostages and The Other Side of Hope

Cannes: Faces Places, Film Worker, Loveless, A Man of Integrity, The Rider, Tesnota, The Venerable W., Wonderstruck

Venice: Downsizing, First Reformed, Foxtrot, Human Flow, The Insult, Lean on Pete, The Shape of Water and Wormwood

Toronto: Battle of the Sexes, Darkest Hour, Downsizing, Faces Places, A Fantastic Woman, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, First Reformed, First They Killed My Father, Foxtrot, Hostiles, Human Flow, The Insult, Lady Bird, Lean on Pete, Loveless, The Other Side of Hope, The Rider and The Shape of Water

New York: Arthur Miller: Writer, Faces Places,Film Worker, First Reformed, Lady Bird, The Other Side of Hope, The Rider. The Venerable W. and Wonderstruck

London: Battle of the Sexes. Downsizing, Faces Places, A Fantastic Woman, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Film Worker, Foxtrot, Lady Bird, Lean on Pete, Loveless, Loving Vincent, The Rider, The Shape of Water, The Venerable W. and Wonderstruck


FAC OSCAR UPDATE: BEST PICTURE AND DIRECTION


Our last Film Awards Clearinghouse look at the Best Picture and Best Direction categories came on Oct. 12th.  With the conclusion of the New York Film Festival and the announcement of the Independent Film Projects Gotham Award nominees, I thought I'd update the Best Picture and Best Direction categories.

TFF #44 films are Bold.


BEST PICTURE

This was the list on Oct. 12th:

1) Dunkirk
2) The Shape of Water
3) Darkest Hour
4) Three Billboards
5) The Post
6) Call Me By Your Name
7) Get Out
8) The Florida Project

Others: Blade Runner 2049, Mudbound, Lady Bird


The updated list as of today:

1) Dunkirk
2) The Shape of Water
3) Darkest Hour
4) Three Billboards
5) Call Me By Your Name
6) The Post
7) Get Out
8) The Florida Project

Others: Lady Bird, Mudbound, I Tonya

Notes: Call Me By Your Name and The Post trade spots and Lady Bird and I Tonya show some momentum.  Also, I suspect that Paul Thomas Anderson's Phantom Thread may start to make an appearance after seeing its trailer last week.


BEST DIRECTION

From Oct. 12th:

1) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
2) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
3) Steven Spielberg/The Post
4) Joe Wright/Darkest Hour
5) Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards

Other Possibilities: Sean Baker/Florida Project, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name, Dee Rees/Mudbound

Updated list:

1) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk

2) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water

3) Joe Wright/Darkest Hour

4) Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards

5) Steven Spielberg/The Post

Other Possibilities: Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name, Jordan Peele/Get Out, Dee Rees/Mudbound

Notes: Wright and Mc Donagh benefit from some slippage by Spielberg.  Sean Baker loses some steam as Jordan Peele pops into the "Other Possibilities" list.

ELIGIBLE DOCUMENTARIES ANNOUNCED

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences have released a list of 170 feature documentaries eligible for Oscar consideration for this year.  From that list I find at least nine that played either TFF #43 or TFF #44.  They are:

From TFF #44:

Arthur Miller: Writer
Faces Places
Human Flow
An Inconvenient Sequel

From TFF #43:

The B Side
California Typewriter
Chasing Trane
Finding Oscar
I Called Him Morgan

The complete list of all 170 films is here from Variety.



RELEASING NEWS

I discovered a couple of notes concerning release dates fro films that played the 44th edition of the Telluride Film Festival.

Scott Cooper's Hostiles (recently acquired by Entertainment Studios) has been dated for initial domestic release for Dec. 22nd.  This, as expected puts it into play for Oscar consideration.  Their has been a good deal of speculation that Christian Bale, who leads the western drama, might be a serious contender in the Best Actor category.

Additionally, Indiewire reported at the end of last week that Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water will have a bi-coastal opening.  Rather than open in New York and Los Angeles on the same date, the film will open in NYC first on Dec. 1st and then in Los Angeles one week later essentially creating two red carpet opportunities.

Here is that story from Indiewire.


And that's your Monday MTFB.  I'll have more on Thursday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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The Composite Telluride / Goodbye Harry Dean / Toronto's Audience Award / Trailers for Film Stars and Faces Places / Post Fest Overviews

Welcome back from the weekend.  Hope you had a good one.

THE COMPOSITE TELLURIDE

Here it is for TFF #44.  The composite mash-up of ratings from both the People and the Professionals.  The Composite Telluride combines the ratings for films that came from both sets of Telluride attendees that I canvas immediately after the fest.

I began doing The Composite in 2013 and in each year the film that has finished at the top has gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar.

Here's a quick look at the top five Composite films for each year since I started:

In 2013 the top five composite films were:

1) 12 Years a Slave (9.25)
2) Tim's Vermeer (8.97)
3) Gravity (8.75)
4) Nebraska (8.38)
5) All is Lost (8.26)

In 2014 the top five were:

1) Birdman (9.18)
2) Foxcatcher (8.83)
3) The Imitation Game (8.79)
4) Wild Tales (8.43)
5) '71 (8.15)

In 2015 the top five were:

1) Spotlight (8.86)
2) Son of Saul (8.74)
3) Beasts of No Nation (8.62)
4) Steve Jobs (8.17)
5) Carol (8.13)

In 2016 the top five were:

1) Moonlight (9.19)
2) La La Land (8.91)
3) Manchester by the Sea (8.13)
4) Arrival (8.01)
5) Maudie (7.89)

And so, here are the results of this year's Composite Telluride (with their composite score and ratings position each had from The People and then The Pros):

1) The Shape of Water (8.72-2-1)
2) Lady Bird (8.58-1-5)
3) Faces Places (7.96-5-2)
4) Darkest Hour (7.90-3-8)
5) Hostiles (7.78-4-9)
6) The Rider (7.63-10-2)
7) Battle of the Sexes (7.62-6-7)
8) First Reformed (7.32-13-6)
9) Lean on Pete (7.16-7-12)
10) First They Killed My Father (7.05-15-10)
11) Loving Vincent (7.00-12-11)
12) Wonderstruck (6.68-10-13)
13) Downsizing (6.17-16-14)
14) Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (6.16-8-15)

There was some substantial disparity between The People and The Pros this year as no less than half of the films that were rated by enough members of both groups had a rank disparity of five spots or more.  The three most divisive films were The Rider and First Reformed which The Pros favored much more and also Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool which The People preferred considerably more than The Pros.

A couple of other notes...based on what past Telluride ratings have told us it looks to me like The Shape of Water, Lady Bird and Darkest Hour look like solid Best Picture nomination contenders. Battle of the Sexes, as I said in my last post, might be in some serious jeopardy in as far as Best Picture is concerned.  I know some Oscar predictors think it's in good shape but these results suggest that it might be a stretch.

Additionally, the results also look grim for Best Picture chances for Wonderstruck, Downsizing, First They Killed My Father and Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool.

Finally, I have opined that TFF #44 seemed to me to have a bunch of good films but maybe didn't have a great film and , again, the ratings might provide some evidence for that as no film from 2017 cracked the all time (well since 2013) Telluride Composite ratings list.  This year's highest rated composite film, The Shape of Water and its 8.72 rating missed making the top ten by 2/100ths of a point.

So the top ten continue to be:

1) 12 Years a Slave (9.25) 2013
2) Moonlight (9.19) 2016
3) Birdman (9.18) 2014
4) Tim's Vermeer (8.97) 2013
5) La La Land (8.91) 2016
6) Spotlight (8.86) 2015
7) Foxcatcher (8.83) 2014
8) The Imitation Game (8.79) 2014
9) Gravity (8.75) 2013
10) Son of Saul (8.74) 2015


GOODBYE HARRY DEAN

Harry Dean Stanton was an "all timer".  A GOAT, if you will.  The long time character actor was in everything and great every time:

Partial list of films:

Cool Hand Luke
The Missouri Breaks
Straight Time
Alien
Escape from New York
Repo Man
Paris, Texas (TFF 1984)***
Red Dawn
Pretty in Pink
Wild at Heart
The Straight Story
The Green Mile
and coming on Sept. 29th...Lucky.

***TFF's old timeline that used to be on the official website said that Stanton was present in Telluride that weekend.  The official program from 1984 only lists Wim Wenders as being with the film.  If anyone out there knows for sure one way or the other, drop me a line.

Stanton died on Friday at the age of 91.

Just recently we saw him back in David Lynch and Mark Frost's Twin Peaks: The Return on Showtime resurrecting the character that he had played in Twin Peaks: Fire Walk with Me.  It was a reminder of what an authentic and honest presence he was on screen.

Saturday, on Twitter, I suggested that I wanted to get the ball rolling on a Best Actor Oscar movement for Harry Dean's Lucky performance...and why not?

Most of my friends that are Oscarologists have suggested that the Best Actor Oscar field isn't as over- loaded this year and the critical response to Lucky from its festival screenings-beginning with South by Southwest back in March and has included a slew of domestic and international fests including: Nantucket, Indianapolis, Locarno, Melbourne, Helsinki and will soon include The Harry Dean Film fest as well as the BFI London Fest.

Variety's Joe Leydon writes: "Everything in his career, and his life,  has brought Harry Dean Stanton to his moment of triumph."

Indiewire's David Ehrlich said "Harry Dean Stanton gives a performance for the ages."

Brian Tallerico for RogerEbert.com wrote that Stanton is "giving one of the best performances of his remarkable career."

So...readers of MTFB...that's my drumbeat for Oscar for this year.  Harry Dean Stanton for Best Actor (OK, I'm also all about Richard Jenkins for Supporting Actor in The Shape of Water).

Here's the trailer:

Indiewire's retrospective of Stanton's best performances is here.



TORONTO'S AUDIENCE AWARD

The Toronto International Film Festival named its prize winners yesterday afternoon and it's a rare year in that there was almost no Telluride/Toronto crossover.  Faces Places won the Audience Award for Docs which is the only instance that I could find.  TIFF's feature award went to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, First Runner-up was I, Tonya and Second Runner-up was Call Me By Your Name.

I had thought that either The Shape of Water or Lady Bird would/could take the award.

The win for Three Billboards may underscore how unsettled the awards landscape is even after the Telluride/Venice/Toronto triumvirate.



TRAILERS FOR FILM STARS AND FACES, PLACES

Take a look at trailers for Paul McGuigan's Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool starring Annette Bening and Jamie Bell:

as well as for Agnes Varda and JR's Faces Places:

POST FEST OVERVIEWS

In the afterglow of Telluride, Venice and Toronto, a number of film and Oscar pundits are beginning to get serious about what we've seen and what's still to be seen.

The Hollywood Reporter posted a piece this weekend assessing their "Best of the Fall Fests" which included this TFF #44 fare:

Battle of the Sexes
Downsizing
Foxtrot
Hostiles
Lady Bird
Lean on Pete
The Shape of Water


THR's complete listing is here.

Meanwhile, Sasha Stone at Awards Daily analyzes Best Actress Oscar prospects of a number of films from a post-T-ride/TIFF/Venice perspective.

Her top five include these TFF #44 players:

Best Actress: Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water), Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes) and Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird).  She also suggests that Rosamund Pike might be a possibility for Hostiles.

Sasha's complete State of the Race article is here.



EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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The Professionals Telluride / It's Time for the Switch / Guillermo Wins Venice / Rate the FIlms of TFF #44

Good Monday to all...


THE PROFESSIONALS TELLURIDE

Here's is your 2017 installment of The Professionals view of the films that played the 44th Telluride Film Festival.  Ten industry journalists participated this year by rating each film they saw on a 0-5 scale.  They were:

Peter DeBruge/Variety
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Stephen Galloway/The Hollywood Reporter
Mark Johnson/Awards Circuit
Eric Kohn/Indiewire
Tomris Laffly/Film Journal
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
Anonymous


15 films earned enough votes to make this year's poll of The Professionals.  The top rated film:  Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water with a 4.5 average.  Here's the complete list with their averaged rating:

1) The Shape of Water (4.5)
2) (Tie) Faces Places (4.25)
2) (Tie) Loveless (4.25)
2) (Tie) The Rider (4.25)
5) Lady Bird (4.20)
6) First Reformed (4.0)
7) Battle of the Sexes (3.95)
8) Darkest Hour (3.85)
9) Hostiles (3.79)
10) First They Killed My Father (3.78)
11) Loving Vincent (3.63)
12) Lean on Pete (3.50)
13) Wonderstruck (3.25)
14) Downsizing (3.10)
15) Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (2.60)

Last year The Pros had Moonlight on top with a 4.87 average followed by La La Land at 4.58.
In 2015, the top film was Son of Saul at 4.44 with Anomalisa second with a 4.42.
In 2014, number one was Birdman at 4.72 and second was Foxcatcher at 4.63.
2013: 12 Years a Slave 4.70 and Blue is the Warmest Color 4.40
2012: Central Park Five 4.7 and Argo 4.5


I'll have The People's Telluride up on Thursday and the Composite Ratings of both Pros and Peeps next Monday.  Speaking of which...



IT'S TIME FOR THE SHIFT

Today marks the annual transition back to MTFBs "normal" publication schedule.  The blog will post twice a week, with rare exceptions, on Mondays and Thursdays.  Today also marks the turn toward this space becoming what I used to refer as The Film Awards Clearinghouse,  From now until Oscar night, I'll be focused most of the time on the awards prospects for the films that played as a part of the TFF #44 program.  You can always check here for the latest news about Oscar, Golden Globes, Critics awards as well as other precursors as we move through the awards season.


GUILLERMO WINS IN VENICE

The Venice Film Fest drew to a close this weekend and TFF #44 film The Shape of Water was named the best film in the competition section winning The Golden Lion.  Other TFF films got into the awards act as well in Italy with Foxtrot winning The Silver Lion.  Kamel El Basha won Best Actor for The Insult and Lean on Pete's Charlie Plummer was named best young actor.

Complete results of the awards at Venice are here from Alex Billington/FirstShowing.net.


That's a wrap for this Monday.  More to come on Thursday including The People's Telluride film ratings.  What did YOU think of the films that played?  YOU CAN STILL BE COUNTED BY RATING BEFORE 5:00PM TOMORROW.

 Send ratings in any of the following methids:


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