It's Monday and in less than 24 hours we will know the Oscar nominees for the 90th Edition of the awards...
MTFB/FAC FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS
Here they are...the final predictions for Oscar nominations. Historically, The FAC is accurate 75%-80%. It's also worth noting that in those categories where The FAC misses the sixth predicted nominee pops up more than half of the time.
Nomination predictions are alphabetical. "Others" are listed in the order of their probability of displacing one of the predicted nominees.
TFF #44 films are Bold.
BEST PICTURE
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Others: (in order of likelihood): Darkest Hour, I, Tonya, The Big Sick, Phantom Thread
BEST DIRECTION
Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards
Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
Jordan Peele/Get Out
Others: Steven Spielberg/The Post, Sean Baker/The Florida Project, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name
BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game
Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Others: Meryl Streep/The Post, Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Michelle Williams/All the Money in the World
BEST ACTOR
Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis/Phantom Thread
James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out
Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Others: Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq., Tom Hanks/The Post, Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
Hong Chau/Downsizing
Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Lesley Manville/Phantom Thread
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards
Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
Others: Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly's Game
Mudbound
Wonder
Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards
Others: The Post, Phantom Thread, I, Tonya
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
A Fantastic Woman
Foxtrot
In the Fade
Loveless
The Square
Others; The Insult, The Wound, Felicitie
ANIMATED FEATURE
The Breadwinner
The Boss Baby
Coco
The Lego Batman Movie
Loving Vincent
Others: Ferdinand, Despicable Me 3, Cars 3
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Faces Places
Icarus
Jane
The Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
Others: City of Ghosts, Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Long Strange Trip
FILM EDITING
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Get Out
Three Billboards
The Shape of Water
Others: The Post, I Tonya, Lady Bird
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
Others:Three Billboards, The Post, Call Me By Your Name
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul
Others: The Post, I Tonya, The Greatest Showman
COSTUME DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul
Others: The Post, I Tonya, The Greatest Showman
MAKEUP AND HAIR
Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
Wonder
Others: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Bright, Ghosts in the Shell
ORIGINAL SCORE
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Post
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Three Billboards
ORIGINAL SONG
The Mystery of Love/Call Me By Your Name
Remember Me/ Coco
This Is Me/The Greatest Showman
Stand Up for Something/Marshall
Mighty River/Mudbound
Others: Evermore/Beauty and the Beast, It Ain't Fair/Detroit, Prayers for This World/Cries From Syria
VISUAL EFFECTS
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water
War for the Planet of the Apes
Others: Okja, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Valerian
SOUND EDITING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water
Others: Wonder Woman, Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes
SOUND MIXING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water
Others: Get Out, Wonder Woman, War for the Planet of the Apes
LIVE ACTION SHORT
Dekalb Elementary
Facing Mecca
Lost Face
Watu Wote
Witnesses
Others: My Nephew Emmett, The Silent Child, Eleven O'Clock
ANIMATED SHORT
Cradle
Dear Basketball
In a Heartbeat
Lou
Negative Space
Others: Revolting Rhymes, Life Smartphone, Fox and the Whale
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
116 Cameras
Alone-The New York Times
Edith and Eddie
Heroin(e)
Kayayo-The Living Shopping Baskets
Others: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405, Ten Meter Tower, Traffic Stop
THE FAC OSCAR NOMINATION BREAKDOWN
If the FAC is 100% accurate tomorrow morning (and it will actually be between 70%-80% accurate if the past is prologue), here are some interesting notes:
TFF #44 films will collect 29 total nominations.
The Shape of Water will lead all nominees with 13: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing. The film could tie La La Land's all time total of 14 or even go to 15 with additional nominations for Octavia Spencer (very possible) and/or Michael Shannon (unlikely).
Darkest Hour (6): Best Actor, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Makeup and Hair. Don't go to sleep on Darkest Hour's Best Picture chances. If the BP field extends past eight films, it could slip in. Strong support in the craft categories and a strong vote from British Academy members could all create enough heat to propel it onto the list.
Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay. If Lady Bird picks up a sixth nomination expect it to be for Film Editing (not likely) which could signal that it is still very solid contender for BP. Tracy Letts has a way, way outside shot at Best Supporting Actor.
Other TFF #44 films The FAC says get nominated:
Hong Chau/Best Supporting Actress-Downsizing
Foreign Language Film nominees: A Fantastic Woman, Foxtrot, Loveless
Loving Vincent/Animated Feature
Faces Places/Documentary Feature
Heroin(e)/Documentary Short
Other films with four or more nominations:
Dunkirk-8
Three Billboards-7
Call Me By Your Name-5
Get Out-5
Blade Runner 2049-4
Mudbound-4
Phantom Thread-4
FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM EXPERTS
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention
Tapley Predicts the following nominations for TFF #44 films
The Shape of Water (11)- Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Hawkins), Supporting Actor (Jenkins), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.
Lady Bird (5)- Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Ronan), Supporting Actress (Metcalf), Original Screenplay
Darkest Hour (5)- Actor (Oldman), Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Original Score, Production Design
Downsizing (1)- Supporting Actress (Chau)
Loving Vincent (1)- Animated Feature
A Fantastic Woman (1)- Foreign Language Film
The Insult (1)- Foreign Language Film
Loveless (1)- Foreign Language Film
Faces Places (1)- Documentary
Heroin(e) (1)- Documentary Short
Tapley's Telluride total = 28 nominations
Here's his complete set of final Oscar nomination predictions.
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
The Shape of Water (12): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay. Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Visual Effects.
Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay
Darkest Hour (3): Actor, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair
Downsizing (1): Supporting Actress
A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film
Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film
Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film
Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature
Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature
Stone doesn't predict the Short Film categories.
Stone's total predictions for TFF #44 films: 26 nominations
Stone's complete "Predictions Friday" post is here.
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
The Shape of Water (14): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Costumes, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects.
Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay
Darkest Hour (4): Actor, Production Design, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair
Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (1) Adapted Screenplay
A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film
Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film
The Insult (1) Foreign Language Film
Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film
Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature
Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature
Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short
Davis' total predictions for TFF #44 films: 31.
Davis complete final predictions are here.
Scott Feinberg/Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
The Shape of Water (12): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing
Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay
Darkest Hour (7): Best Picture, Actor, Production Design, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Costumes, Original Score
A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film
Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film
Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film
Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature
Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short
Feinberg's total predictions for TFF #44 films: 29.
Feinberg's complete final predictions are here.
Erik Anderson and The Gold Rush Gang/Awards Watch
The Shape of Water (13): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Costumes, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Sound Mixing, Visual Effects
Darkest Hour (6): Actor, Cinematography, Original Score, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair
Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay
A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film
Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film
Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film
Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature
Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature
Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short
Anderson and crew predict a total of 30 nominations for TFF #44 films.
Their complete predictions are here.
THE PRODUCERS GUILD AWARDS THE SHAPE OF WATER
Ahead of its expected announcement as the leader in number of Oscar nominations tomorrow, The Producers Guild names Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water their Best Picture of the Year on Saturday night.
It's worth noting that The PGA has a preferential ballot like Oscar does. It;s also worth noting that La La Land won the PGA and led all films in Oscar nominations last year and look how that turned out.
I have linked coverage and analysis from:
SAG-AFTRA LIKES THREE BILLBOARDS
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri cleaned up at last night's SAG-AFTRA Awards claiming the Best Ensemble prize along with wins for Frances McDormand for Best Actress and Sam Rockwell for Best Supporting Actor.
Though the voting for Oscar nominations has been over for a few days, this turn of events along with The Shape of Water's win at the PGA on Saturday seems to indicate a two film race between Three Billboards and Shape for the Best Picture Oscar.
Many of the Oscar experts I follow, however are saying that both Get Out and Lady Bird aren't out of the race yet.
I have linked analysis from:
That's it for this Monday. I'll post Oscar nominees and a few thoughts tomorrow after the nominees are announced in a SPECIAL POST of Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)
FACEBOOK Message me on FB
MTFB's Facebook Page
COMMENT TO THE BLOG
