Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
Just a short post today as both flu and Holiday plans have meant a truncated MTFB today.
NEW GURUS
There's a new Gurus of Gold for this holiday week up at Movie City News. It covers the Big Eight categories; Picture, Direction, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Screenplays.
The Film Stage published its list of the 50 best films from 2018 over the weekend. Included on that list:
#46-The Old Man and the Gun
#34 First Man
#20 The Rider (TFF #44)
#17 The Favourite
#14 Shoplifters
#8 Cold War
#7 The Other Side of the Wind
#2 Roma
#1 First Reformed (TFF #44)
The other is an article from The Advocate that features half a dozen new posters for the film that debuted in The Advocate and are designed to highlight specific groups working to end conversion therapy.
Time.com published an online article from Ciara Nugent on Friday that reviews the actual incidents depicted in Mike Leigh's TFF #45 film Peterloo. The actual events including the massacre occurred in August of 1819 in Manchester, England.
Peterloo will open in the U.S. on April 5, 2019. It's opened in the U.K. this past weekend.
Netflix has released the final film from Orson Welles. The Other Side of the Wind, which played at Telluride a couple of months back was available to stream as of last Friday. Also available was the accompanying documentary from Oscar winner Morgan Neville (Twenty Feet from Stardom). They'll Love Me When I'm Dead explores the project of finally finishing Welles' last film and is also available to stream on Netflix.
Jordan Ruimy conducted an interview with Neville for The Playlist which appeared on that site on Friday. It is linked here.
INDIEWIRE CELEBRATES CUARON
Indiewire presented its second annual Indiewire Honors last Thursday. Eight film makers were honored including writer/director/producer Alfonso Cuaron. Cuaron received Indiewire's Vanguard Award.
Indiewire;s Eric Kohn wrote the story which included comments from Cuaron about Roma which was a huge success at Telluride after winning the Golden Lion at Venice.
Roma is now considered a strong Oscar contender and, at least at this point, is positioned as the film with the best chance to continue Telluride's crazy streak of having screened the last eight and nine of the last ten winners of the Oscar for Best Picture.
Good Monday everyone... I've got a full edition of MTFB today.
FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR 2018
First up today is my first Oscar predictions for 2018. As regular readers know, I shift gears after each year's SHOW is completed (as well as Venice and Toronto) and, until Oscar night, the focus of this space becomes focused on the awards twists and turns that TFF films are a part of.
Consequently, I also endeavor to provide predictions about the Oscar race including my own set of prognostications. Over the next few months I'll also pay attention to some of the larger critic's top ten and "best of" lists as well as many of the film guild awards. All of which lead up to Oscar nomination announcement morning (Jan. 22) and the 91st Oscars ceremony on Feb. 24.
Additionally, this year, as I reported a few days back, this year my predictions will also be included as part of The Gurus of Gold at Movie City News.
It's an exciting time.
So here you are. My first set of predix for the four most major of major categories: Picture, Direction, Actress and Actor.
BEST PICTURE
1) First Man
2) A Star Is Born
3) Roma
4) Green Book
5) The Favourite
6) BlacKkKlansman
7) If Beale Street Could Talk
8) Black Panther
9) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
10) Boy Erased
Others: Eighth Grade, Widows, The Front Runner, Vice
BEST DIRECTION
1) Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
2) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born
3) Damien Chazelle/First Man
4) Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman
5) Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite
Others: Barry Jenkins/If Beale Street Could Talk, Ryan Coogler/Black Panther, Peter Farrelly/Green Book, Steve McQueen/Widows, Adam McKay/Vice
BEST ACTRESS
1) Glenn Close/The Wife
2) Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born
3) Melissa McCarthy/ Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4) Olivia Colman/The Favourite
5) Julia Roberts/Ben Is Back
Others: Nicole Kidman/Destroyer, Yalitza Aparicio/Roma, Viola Davis/Widows, Toni Collette/Heredity
BEST ACTOR
1) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born
2) Viggo Mortensen/Green Book
3) Ryan Gosling/First Man
4) Lucas Hedges/Boy Erased
5) Willem Dafoe/At Eternity's Gate
Others: John David Washington/BlacKkKlansman, Christian Bale/Vice, Hugh Jackman/The Front Runner, Ethan Hawke/First Reformed
TFF #45 Breakdown if these predictions were 100% accurate (I'm picking nine nominees for Best Picture):
First Man (3): Best Picture, Direction, Actor
The Favourite (3): Best Picture, Direction, Actress
Roma (2) Best Picture, Direction
Can You ever Forgive Me? (2): Best Picture, Actress
Boy Erased (1) Best Actor
Additional Possibilities:
The Front Runner (2): Best Picture, Actor
Boy Erased (1): Best Picture
Roma (1): Best Actress
Destroyer (1): Best Actress
And from TFF #44...
First Reformed (1): Best Actor
CONTINUED OSCAR INSIGHT
Both Sasha Stone at Awards Daily and Erik Anderson of Awards Watch post updates for the Oscar season each Friday. Sasha's is titled Predictions Friday while Erik's is Frontrunner Friday. Clayton Davis of Awards Circuit updates weekly on Mondays. I'll try to make sure to provide those links each week. I'll also be adding Scott Feinberg's Feinberg Forecast (The Hollywood Reporter) , Kristopher Tapley (Variety) and others as the season really gets rolling.
I saw two big pieces appear this weekend that delved into the back story of the efforts to finish Orson Welles final film The Other Side of the Wind. Both Chris O'Falt for Indiewire and Alex Ross for The New Yorker put up extensive stories about how the film was rescued and finished.
Ali Abbasi's TFF #45 selection and Cannes' Un Certain Regard winner Border made a splash this weekend as it was named winner of the World Fiction prize at The Los Angeles Film Festival as well as having a U.S. trailer release.
The film was one of the more divisive offerings at this year's SHOW as evidenced by the disparate reactions from my collection of ratings from both the attendees of the fest, who had it at the #16 spot in their ratings and the Professionals for whom it ended up at their #8 spot.
Good Thursday to all of you TFFers and film fans...
FOREIGN LANGUAGE CONTENDERS WITH BIGGER DREAMS
Anne Thompson penned a piece at Indiewire this week assessing the Oscar prospects of two films that are expected to be major players in the Best Foreign Language Film category. She's talking about Alfonso Cuaron's Roma and Pawel Pawlikowski's Cold War both of which played TFF #45.
The two films seem locks for nominations in that category but Anne suggests they're both after bigger things as both Netflix with Roma and Amazon with Cold War are hoping that their respective films could be players for other nominations including Best Picture.
Roma already seems very likely to make the Oscar parade for Best Picture and probably direction, cinematography and editing as well. It could well factor in the Best Original Screenplay category and perhaps even acting nominations for actress and supporting actress could be accessible. I'm basing that assessment largely on the critical reception that Curaon's passion project has received as it has moved through Venice, where it won the Golden Lion, Telluride and Toronto.
Cold War seems like a longer stretch to me. At this point I think it ends up with the single nomination for Best Foreign Film.
Both films have some baggage that may impede Oscar voters embracing them past the Foreign Language category. The first thing, of course, is that they're not in English. They're both black and white and both are from outlets that are viewed primarily as streaming services by many in the Academy and that, to some, is pejorative.
Many of you saw They'll Love Me When I'm Dead, the companion documentary for The Other Side of the Wind at the fest a few weeks ago. This week Netflix dropped a trailer for the Morgan Neville directed film as well as the above poster.
Here, from YouTube, is the trailer:
I've also linked a couple of stories that came out this week about the documentary from:
So, during this year's festival, I was asked if I might be interested in participating in a small project. I said "maybe" and ultimately this was the result.
The folks that dreamed this up wanted to create a Hitler Downfall parody about TFF. I didn't even really know what that was but I do now.
For the uninitiated, there is a program that allows people to create their own script for the titanic Hitler rant in Oliver Hirschbiegel's 2004 Oscar nominated (Best Foreign Film) Downfall.
The "film" was completed this week and here it is with a couple of notes.
1) It pokes fun at TFF but it's all done with love. Believe me, the folks who put this together love the fest.
2) There's a tad bit of language that would likely earn it a PG-13 rating so if that's an issue, maybe don't watch.
3) I am to credit the film to "An Anonymous TFF Fan".
As a teaser, here's a screenshot of one of the captions:
You may or may not have seen a post from Awards Circuit yesterday that linked to their YouTube account. If you did not, they rank the world's most important film festivals in as far as awards season is concerned.
No spoilers but...
Here's that video:
I'm out...almost literally...we hit the road to T-ride in about two hours... Hoping to see some of you tonight.
Next post will be Friday morning with a view toward what I'll be planning to see and do...
Then check back throughout the weekend for TBAs and reactions to the films that I see.
IT'S FINALLY HERE!
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
Good Monday everyone. We're down to the last few days to TFF #45 and I can feel the excitement building...tapping my foot here...
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE WIND CONFIRMED
Ray Kelly at Wellesnet.com wrote this weekend that what we have been thinking is true and that is that Orson Welles' final film The Other Side of the Wind will bow at Telluride following its screening in Venice.
Kelly cites a "festival source speaking on condition of anonymity" as revealing that the first showing in the United States for the long gestating film project will be at Telluride. I can also tell you that I have been assured that Kelly's source is well placed.
I will certainly have it on my list of films to catch at some point during the weekend and am curious which film makers will be part of the film's entourage. At a guess, I'd venture Frank Marshall and Peter Bogdanovich. Both of whom have been instrumental in finishing the project. Additionally, Bogdanovich acts in the film as well.
In other Orson Welles/Telluride news, it appears that we will not be seeing Mark Cousins' The Eyes of Orson Welles next week. I ran across a listing of Cousin's screenings including those at which he is scheduled to do question and answer sessions and it seems that the film and he are booked in Europe during Labor Day weekend.
The Eyes of Orson Welles examines Welles and his career through the lense of little known artwork that Welles created.
On a brighter note, I still have a good deal of confidence that the "making-of" documentary about The Other Side of the Wind will play at TFF #45.
ARETHA FRANKLIN AND TELLURIDE
With this week's passing of the Queen of Soul I have had a number of folks reach out to me asking if I think that this turn will change the status of the documentary Amazing Grace. The film was twice seemingly set to play Telluride in 2015 and 2016 only to be thwarted by legal issues at the last minute both years.
The doc was shot during two days as Franklin live recorded the songs that would become the album Amazing Grace.
My feeling is that we may eventually see it and even at Telluride but that isn't likely to be this year by any means. Franklin's family and estate will now have to decide what they think about the situation.
Chris Willman writing for Variety posted a lengthy story on Friday about the status of Amazing Grace as well an authorized biopic at MGM that reportedly would cast Jennifer Hudson as Aretha.
Take a look at that story here for a deep dive into where both of those projects are in terms of seeing the light of day.
Nick Allen also had a piece about the doc this past weekend in The Telegraph.
THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE RIDES AGAIN!
For the seventh consecutive year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride. All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".
When the time comes, you can send those ratings to me in any of the following ways listed as contact info for me listed below.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
We're two weeks away as of today from the opening pf the 45th Telluride Film Festival. As we close in on the Labor Day weekend, our list of films that I think will play is expanding. This week's newest reveals from the Toronto International Film Festival has changed the landscape in terms a new film or two being added or confirmed and also through the elimination of a number of titles that could still make an appearance when the official program drops on Thursday, Aug. 30th.
Here's a review of where the Ten Bets list was last Friday:
1) First Man
2) Roma
3) The Old Man and the Gun
4) The Front Runner
5) Destroyer
6) Cold War
7) Dogman
8) Shoplifters
9) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
10) Non-Fiction
11) The Favourite
12) White Boy Rick
13) Peterloo
14) The Other Side of the Wind
15) Meeting Gorbachev
Girl, Border, , They'll Love Me When I'm Dead, Graves Without a Name, The Man Who Killed Don Quixote, The Eyes of Orson Welles, On the Basis of Sex, He Dreams of Giants, Free Solo, Angels Are Made of Light, The Biggest Little Farm, Ghost Fleet, Cheney (Backseat), Nothing Like a Dame, Mid 90s, Mary Queen of Scots, Boy Erased, Ad Astra
And here is your new Ten (20) Bets:
1) The Old Man and the Gun
2) Roma
3) First Man
4) The Front Runner
5) Destroyer
6) The Favourite
7) Cold War
8) Dogman
9) Shoplifters
10) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
11) Non-Fiction
12) Boy Erased
13) White Boy Rick
14) Peterloo
15) The Other Side of the Wind
16) Meeting Gorbachev
17) Free Solo
18) Graves Without a Name
19) Birds of Passage
20) Girl
Ghost Fleet, They'll Love Me When I'm Dead, The Man Who Killed Don Quixote, The Eyes of Orson Welles, On the Basis of Sex, He Dreams of Giants, Angels Are Made of Light, The Biggest Little Farm, Ghost Fleet, Cheney (Backseat), Nothing Like a Dame, Mary Queen of Scots, Ad Astra, The White Crow, The Aspern Papers.
I'd also mention that there are a couple of other titles that I am vaguely aware of that could poke their way onto the list that aren't currently named here.
ROMA TRAILER LOOKS IMPRESSIVE
Netflix released a new teaser trailer for Alfonso Cuaron's Roma yesterday and it looks marvelous. Here it is from YouTube:
The film has the distinction of playing all four major fall fests: T-ride, TIFF, Venice and New York. At the moment it appears to share that distinction with Olivier Assayas Non-Fiction.
Roma is as yet still not dated for a theatrical release. IMDb reports that it has an internet release date of Dec. 14th.
The BFI/London Film Fest announced yesterday that almost-certain Telluride title, Mike Leigh's Peterloo, will appear as a part of that fest with a screening in Manchester, England. That is reportedly the first time any film that is a part of the the BFI/LFF will screen outside of London.
Additionally, Amazon Studios released a poster for the film yesterday. That release and the announcement of the special Manchester screening (site of the events depicted in the film) had special significance. Eagle-eyed friend of the blog Patrick Pringle noted in a message to me that yesterday was the 199th anniversary of the Peterloo Massacre.
It's the first Friday in August! In four weeks the 45th Telluride Film Festival will begin.
TEN (PLUS) BETS #6 FOR TFF #45
Not much changing among the top ten bets but I am expanding this week to 15 titles plus films that are still potential players.
Last week's Ten Bets:
1) Roma
2) First Man
3) The Old Man and the Gun
4) Cold War
5) The Front Runner
6) Dogman
7) Shoplifters
8) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
9) Non Fiction
10) The Favourite
This week's Ten (Plus) Bets
1) First Man
2) Roma
3) The Old Man and the Gun
4) The Front Runner
5) Cold War
6) Dogman
7) Shoplifters
8) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
9) Non Fiction
10) The Favourite
11) Peterloo
12) White Boy Rick
13) The Other Side of the Wind
14) Border
15) Girl
The Man Who Killed Don Quixote, The Eyes of Orson Welles, On the Basis of Sex, Happy as Lazzaro, He Dreams of Giants, Cheney (Backseat), Nothing Like a Dame, Mid 90s, Mary Queen of Scots, Boy Erased, American Dharma, 22 July
We definitely should gain more insight next week with additional announcements from Toronto plus New York's lineup and a schedule from Venice.
L.A. FILM FEST REVEALS ANOTHER POSSIBLE FILM
Within the last week we had announcements from the Los Angeles Film Fest, which has a new date as well as the first wave announcement from Fantastic Fest. I can't divine any real addition or elimination from the FF announcement but it appears that Cannes Un Certain Regard winner Border is probable for Telluride.
The LAFF list tells us that Border will be a "California" Premiere leading me to believe that it will have played somewhere in the U.S. prior to its screening in L.A. 2-3 weeks after T-ride. Thusly, Telluride seems like a good bet to screen the film from director Ali Abassi. Neon is distributing the film in the U.S. Neon distributed Errol Morris' The B Side: Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Photography in 2016 which played TFF #43.
Here's coverage of the Los Angeles announcement from Deadline and Variety.
GIRL HAS A TRAILER
Netflix has released the first international trailer for Lukas Dhont's Girl. The film was very well received as a part of Cannes' Un Certain Regard section and won a series of awards related to that screening including UCR Best Actor for lead Victor Polster.
Here's the video from YouTube:
Netflix hasn't announced a date for release in the U.S. as yet.
I have linked coverage of the trailer release from FirstShowing.
AND SPEAKING OF TRAILERS
I know. I know. Barry Jenkins' If Beale Street Could Talk is destined to screen for the first time in Toronto but when I saw this tweet this morning:
Well, I just had to take a look and if you're so inclined as well...
Trailer via YouTube
Makes me sad all over again that TFF #45 won't be screening this.
That's your wrap on MTFB for this week. I'll have more on Monday.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
The Venice Film Fest announced its lineup yesterday and, at this point, the best it can do is tell us what might still be possible for Telluride. Absent premiere status and a schedule, that's the most information that can be gleaned at this time.
Here are the Venice films that we believe are already headed to Telluride:
First Man
Roma
The Venice films we believe are NOT Telluride bound:
The Sisters Brothers
Sunset
A Star Is Born
Shadow
Venice films that could still play Telluride (and you have to believe it will be more than First Man and Roma):
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (the Coen brothers television joint from Netflix which is now, apparently a stand alone film)
Vox Lux
The Favourite
Peterloo
At Eternity's Gate
The Other Side of the Wind
American Dharma
It all comes down to the scheduling at this point and we won't know the Venice schedule for another couple of weeks.
Here are links to a number of stories concerning the Venice lineup announcement:
TEASERS AND TRAILERS FOR ROMA, PETERLOO AND MID 90'S
While we were taking the regular Wednesday hiatus, a teaser was released for Alfonso Cuaron's Roma (which we now believe is set for Telluride) and also trailers were released for a couple of films that remain on the Telluride table for now-Mike Leigh's Peterloo and Jonah Hill's Mid 90's.
Here's the teaser for Roma from YouTube:
Here's the Peterloo trailer:
And also the trailer for Mid 90's:
That's MTFB for Thursday. More tomorrow including a brand new Ten Bets informed by all of this week's developments...
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
