Oscar Predictions: Best International Feature / Oscar Predictions Update: Actress and Actor / EFA Nominations Announced / Interviews From Marriage Story

OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Here's my first crack at parsing the likely nominees for the newly renamed Best International Feature category for the Academy Awards.  As always films from TFF are in Bold.

1) Parasite

2) Pain and Glory

3) Les Miserables

4) Atlantics

5) Monos

Other Possibles: And Then We Danced, Beanpole, The Painted Bird.

Notes: Honestly, the perception right now is that Parasite is so solid as the front runner for this Oscar that it seems a foregone conclusion that it will not only be nominated but will also win and that the rest of the field is playing for the proverbial "just honored to be nominated" status.  But then, remember Toni Erdmann...

OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE: BEST ACTRESS AND ACTOR

Here's my latest updated predictions for Best Actress and Actor nominations.  I last updated the Best Actress prediction on Oct. 14th and Best Actor on Oct. 17th.

The latest predictions are listed in order of likelihood with their past position indicated in parentheses.  as is my custom, TFF #46 films are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy (1)
2) Charlize Theron/Bombshell (-)
3) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story (2)
4) Saorise Ronan/Little Women (-)
5) Cynthia Ervio/Harriet (3)

Other possibles: Awkwafina/The Farewell, Lupita Nyong'o/Us, Alfre Woodard/Clemency.

Notes: Theron coming on like a freight train as some folks have actually seen Bombshell.  Zellweger still has a solid grasp on the top spot.

BEST ACTOR

1) Adam Driver/Marriage Story (1)
2) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker (2)
3) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes (3)
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (4)
5) Eddie Murphy/Dolemite Is My Name (-)

Other possibles: Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory, Robert DeNiro/The Irishman, Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems.

Notes: The category is relatively stable over the last three weeks.  Murphy sneaks in over Banderas and DeNiro...at least for now.

EFA NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

The European Film Academy announced the nominees for their awards for superlatives in European films for the past year and they included films from both TFF #46 and TFF #45.

TFF nominees included:

Pain and Glory nominated for Best European Film, Antonio Banderas/Best Actor, Pedro Almodovar/Best Director, Pedro Almodovar/Best Screenwriter.

Portrait of a Lady on Fire: Celine Sciamma/Best Director, Noemie Merlant and Adele Haenel/Best Actress, Celine Sciamma/Best Screenwriter

Beanpole: Viktoria Miroshnichenko/Best Actress

The Favourite (from TFF #45) Best European Film, Olivia Colman/Best Actress, Yorgos Lanthimos/Best Director

The complete list of nominees except for animated films is linked here from Deadline.

INTERVIEWS FROM MARRIAGE STORY

As Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story got its limited theatrical release this week and with its streaming release less than a month away (Dec. 6th) we are seeing more and more about the film including interviews with its principals.

Anne Thompson of Indiewire talks to Noah Baumbach

Baz Bamigboye of The Daily Mail talks to Adam Driver

Erik Anderson of Awards Watch talks to Alan Alda


That's Monday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Oscar #91 in the Books: Telluride's Spell Is Broken / Oscar Odds and Ends / And Now We Turn the Page

Welcome back from Oscarland...

OSCAR #91 IN THE BOOKS: TELLURIDE'S SPELL IS BROKEN

Here are your winners from the 91st Academy Awards from Last Night:

Best Picture: Green Book)
Direction: Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
Actress: Olivia Colman/The Favourite)
Actor: Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody
Supporting Actress: Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali/Green Book
Original Screenplay: Green Book
Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman
Animated Feature: Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse
Documentary Feature: Free Solo
Foreign Language Film: Roma
Original Song: Shallow/A Star Is Born
Original Score: Black Panther
Cinematography: Roma
Film Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Production Design: Black Panther
Costumes: Black Panther
Makeup/Hair: Vice
Visual Effects: First Man
Sound Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Animated Short: Bao
Documentary Short: Period. End of Sentence
Live Action Short: Skin


OSCAR ODDS AND ENDS

 
Telluride's streak of eight straight years of screening the eventual Best Picture winner ended last night with the win for Green Book.  It's the first non-TFF film to win since The Hurt Locker back in 2010.

TFF films did pick up six Oscars last night.  Roma had three: Direction, Foreign Language Film and Cinematography.  The Favourite's Olivia Colman won for Best Actress, Free Solo won Best Documentary and First Man won for Best Visual Effects.

Multiple Oscar winning films included:

Bohemian Rhapsody-4 Actor, Film Editing, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Green Book-3 Picture, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay
Roma-3 Direction Foreign Language Film and Cinematography
Black Panther-3 Production Design, Costumes and Original Score

My personal prediction success rate was 19/24 or 79.2% .  I missed Picture, Actress, Film Editing, Production Design and Live Action Short.
 
I don't know that I would classify any of last night's awards as shockers.  Late wins by Colman and Green Book were mildly surprising but looking at the list I posted last Thursday, four of the five places where I missed, I had the actual winner listed as the "Could Be" candidate.

Why'd Green Book win?  I suspect a combination of factors mostly related to the baggage that Roma had going into the season: a foreign language film in black and white from Netflix.


AND NOW WE TURN THE PAGE

Though I have played around already with looking ahead to this year's potential TFF #46 lineup, now that this year's Oscar ceremony is in the books, it's time for this space to turn back to what was originally created to do.

Oscar's in the rear view and we turn our gaze ahead and aim toward Aug. 30th and the opening day of the 46th Telluride film Festival.


I'll have more for you on Thursday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

FINAL Oscar Predictions / The Telluride Effect Part Two / Oscar Experts Final Predictions

Thursday before Oscar...


FINAL OSCAR #91 PREDICTIONS

Best Picture:Roma  (Could be: Green Book)
Direction: Alfonso Cuaron/Roma (Could be: Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman)
Actress: Glenn Close/The Wife (Could be: Olivia Colman/The Favourite)
Actor: Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody (Could be: Christian Bale/Vice)
Supporting Actress: Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk (Could be: Rachel Weisz/The Favourite OR Amy Adams/Vice)
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali/Green Book (Could be: Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Original Screenplay: Green Book (Could be: The Favourite)
Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman (Could be: Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Animated Feature: Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse (Could be: Incredibles 2)
Documentary Feature: Free Solo (Could be: RBG)
Foreign Language Film: Roma (Could be: Cold War)
Original Song: Shallow/A Star Is Born (Could be: All the Stars/Black Panther)
Original Score: Black Panther (Could be: If Beale Street Could Talk)
Cinematography: Roma (Could be: Cold War)
Film Editing: Vice (Could be: Bohemian Rhapsody)
Production Design: The Favourite (Could be: Black Panther)
Costumes: Black Panther (Could be: The Favourite)
Makeup/Hair: Vice (Could be: Mary Queen of Scots)
Visual Effects: First Man (Could be: Avengers: Infinity War)
Sound Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody (Could be: First Man)
Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody (Could be: First Man)
Animated Short: Bao (Could be: Animal Behavior)
Documentary Short: Period. End of Sentence (Could be: End Game)
Live Action Short: Marguerite (Could be: Any of the others)


THE TELLURIDE EFFECT PART TWO

I wrote on Monday about "The Telluride Effect", the notion that a film now almost has to play Telluride to win Best Picture at the Oscars.  I reminded readers that the last decade seems to provide evidence for the theory with nine of the last ten winners having played TFF on their way to Oscar glory.

I also suggested that there might be five reasons that it could be true:

1) Reputation
2) Demographics
3) Ties to The Academy
4) Timing
5) Media Presence Increase

So, I asked a number of friends and acquaintances from the industry that are usual TFF attendees and asked them two questions:

1) Is the "Telluride Effect" real?
2) If so, why?


The first question drew mixed responses.

Film maker, Script Magazine contributor and long time Telluride Film Fest attendee Christopher Schiller writing that "it is certainly real from my observations" while Variety's Kristopher Tapley suggests that "It's potentially real."

Other respondents weren't as quick to sign on to the existence of The T-ride Effect.  Mark Johnson of Awards Circuit saying "I think it may just be lucky coincidence".  Indiewire's Eric Kohn came close to seconding Johnson's assessment claiming his belief that "it's arbitrary.

Variety's Peter DeBruge told me that it does exist as a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts"  but The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg said that "there is no way to know".

To the extent that it does or might exist, many of the answers I got to the second question as to why underscored the five points I made in Monday's post.

Telluride's reputation and its programming prowess were cited by Sasha Stone of Awards Daily as she said that it is a combination of factors including "the selection committee".    Schiller says that the fest has "always had from the very first one onward" the "class of selection" and that "producers who calculate a ride to the awards...consider getting the 'right' exposure from Telluride" 

Both Schiller and DeBruge take pains to say that they don't believe any of the "effect" is the conscious design of the TFF programmers.

In as far as my second and third points, that Telluride has great demographics including a significant Academy presence, those sentiments were echoed by Tapley who commented on "the concentration of Academy members that are present" and Stone who says that the "effect" may be true in part because of "the small amount of people who attend...that make it a perfect launching site for Oscar movies."

On to my fourth observation that some of it has to do with timing.  About this there was a good deal of agreement with the general notion but the specifics differed a bit.  Schiller pointed to the festival's benefiting from the decision of the Motion Picture Academy to move the date of the Oscar ceremony forward three weeks from the end of March to the end of February or early March.  That change came in 2003.  DeBruge mentions it's fortuitous placement between Venice and Toronto but Mark Johnson had, perhaps the most pointed comment concerning timing and the Best Picture Oscar saying that screening a film at Telluride mean that producers "have time for their film to take heat and recover from it."

My fifth point was the increase in the press coverage that has happened over the last decade plus.  Again, Peter DeBruge underscored my point in his commentary saying,  "The phenomenon is bolstered by...the steep increase in press coverage at the festival."  He went on to write, "Now that many more critics-and Oscar bloggers- attend, these movies now get early adulatory coverage, as opposed to getting lost among the 300 or so movies unspooling at Toronto a week later."

So, I felt good about the things I wrote on Monday but there were a couple of other tidbits among the responses that I felt merited mentioning. 


DeBruge added that not all plans to take advantage of The Telluride Effect, if in fact it does exist, go as planned.  For every Spotlight, Moonlight or Shape of Water, TFF can also be a place where those awards dreams sometimes crash.  He says, "let's not forget the many movies that miscalculated their own merits and were met with mixed reactions/downright disappointment by the discerning viewers in the Colorado mountains"  Among the films he mentioned: Labor Day, Hyde Park on Hudson and Downsizing.

It was Schiller who posed the obvious question that I overlooked which was "Will it last?"  which is a great question.  Chris has some of the same thought that I do suggesting that the changing particulars of the awards season may mean that the "effect" may be limited saying, "the quality structure that is the heart of Telluride may not align with the awards shows' proclivities in the future."

My take on Schiller's note here is what I said Monday in my second point which is that with the conscious move by the Academy to expand and diversify TFF's effect may change as a result.

Finally, leave it to THR's Scott Feinberg to put it most succinctly, "as long as Telluride films keep winning Best Picture, I expect distributors will continue to treat the fest as a must-go place."

Will that happen Sunday night?  If you read my predictions above...I think so....but it's tight people...IT IS TIGHT...

My thanks to:

Peter DeBruge/Variety
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Mark Johnson/Awards Circuit
Eric Kohn/Indiewire
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com


OSCAR EXPERTS FINAL PREDICTIONS

Here are links to the current "Final" predictions from a slew of Oscarologists:


Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Andrew Carden/The Awards Connection

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Steve Pond/The Wrap


That's all for MTFB for today.  I'll be back Monday with an Oscar breakdown.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

BOLO (Be On the Lookout): Nomadland / Melissa McCarthy on Lee Israel / Oscar Buzz

Howdy, Howdy on this Thursday and Happy Valentines Day to you and your nearest and dearest.

BOLO (BE ON THE LOOKOUT): NOMADLAND

Frances McDormand in Nomadland (photo via Fox Searchlight)

I don't always include news here when I come across news of films that seem to have the right mix of ingredients to become a selection for the Telluride Film Festival.  Most of the time I note whatever it is and store away its information and whatever news I have uncovered in a "Future Telluride" file that I keep.  Periodically I'll check that file and see what, if anything has or looks like it might pan out for Labor Day weekend.

Sometimes, however, something pops up that feels like such a realistic possibility that I skip the filing altogether and one of those instances happened this week with the revelation that director Chloe Zhao was working on an under-the-radar film.

That's notable as Zhao's last film was The Rider which played TFF #44 to tremendous acclaim and was released in 2018 and earned mentions among many critics "Best Of" lists and five Spirit Award nominations including one for Best Picture.

That, by itself would have been enough for me to take notice but other factors moved the needle a bit more.  The reason that the film came to light this week was its acquisition by frequent TFF participant Fox Searchlight.  Add to that some speculation the film might be bound for Cannes (The Rider played at Cannes in the Directors Fortnight section) put it over the top for me to include on my TFF #46 watch list and also seemed to be enough fuel to warrant mentioning it here and now rather than relegating it to my "Future Telluride" collection.

The film is titled Nomadland and stars Oscar winner Frances McDormand and Oscar nominee David Stratharin and is based on Jessica Bruder's non-fiction book "Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century".

I have linked coverage of the announcement here from:

Variety

Indiewire

Ioncinema

The Playlist

And, PS...it appears that Telluride favorite and past TFF Guest Director Alexander Payne looks to be set up with his newest project described as a "Horror-Comedy".  The Playlist reports that Payne will be directing The Menu.  Both Will Ferrell and Adam McKay are also involved as producers on the project.

You can read further details here from The Playlist

MELISSA MC CARTHY ON LEE ISRAEL

Oscar nominee Melissa McCarthy is featured in a new interview with Lexy Perez for The Hollywood Reporter talking about her character, Lee Israel, from Can You Ever Forgive Me? and other topics as well.  

Read that interview here

OSCAR BUZZ

Final Oscar voting is underway (it started Tuesday) and runs until next Tuesday, Feb. 19th with the Awards themselves...in whatever form and structure it ultimately takes, on Feb. 24th.

I'll have my final predictions a week from today.

At this point my current calculation is:

Picture: Roma

Director: Cuaron/Roma

Actress: Close/The Wife

Actor: Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody

Supporting Actress: Adams/Vice

Supporting Actor: Ali/Green Book

Original Screenplay: Green Book

Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman

Animated Feature: Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse

Documentary Feature: RBG

Foreign Language Film: Roma

Cinematography: Roma

Film Editing: Vice

Original Score: If Beale Street Could Talk

Original Song: Shallow/A Star Is Born

Costumes: The Favourite

Production Design: The Favourite

Makeup/Hair: Vice

Visual Effects: Avengers: Infinity War

Sound Editing: First Man

Sound Mixing: A Star Is Born

Animated Short: Bao

Doc Short: Period. End of Sentence.

Live Action Short: Marguerite

TFF #45 Films winning if I'm 100% accurate:

Roma (4): Picture, Direction, Foreign Language Film, Cinematography

The Favourite (2): Costumes. Production Design

First Man (1): Sound Editing

Other winners:

Vice (3): Supporting Actress, Film Editing, Makeup/Hair

Green Book (2): Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay

A Star Is Born (2): Song, Sound Mixing

Single wins:

Bohemian Rhapsody-Actor

The Wife-Actress

BlacKkKlansman-Adapted Screenplay

Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse-Animated Feature

RBG-Documentary Feature

If Beale Street Could Talk-Original Score

Avengers: Infinity War-Visual Effects

Shorts- Bao, Period. End of Sentence, Marguerite.

That's your MTFB for this Thursday.  More on Monday...


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

BAFTA Loves Telluride / TFF #45 Films Duke It Out for ASC Award / Oscar Predictions for Seven More Categories / Albert Finney 1936-2019

Welcome to a new week on this Monday...


BAFTA LOVES TELLURIDE

The  British Academy of Film and Television Arts named their film award winners on Sunday night and films that played TFF #45 last Labor Day weekend dominated the ceremony.  Alfonso Cuaron's Roma won for Best Film, Film not in the English Language, Direction and Cinematography.  Yorgos Lanthimos' The Favourite won the most trophies of the evening with seven including: Best Actress-Olivia Colman, Supporting Actress-Rachel Wiesz, Outstanding British Film, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Costume Design and Makeup/Hair.

Additionally, TFF #45 selection Free Solo won Best Documentary.

TFF #45 films totaled 13 BAFTA wins altogether.

Complete lists of winners in all BAFTA categories plus some insight into what effect these results have on Oscar...whose voting opens tomorrow, is explored from these linked sources:

Deadline

Hollywood News

Indiewire



TFF #45 FILMS DUKE IT OUT FOR ASC AWARD

The American Society of Cinematographers sent a ripple of surprise and uncertainty into the Oscar race for Best Cinematography on Saturday night as they gave their top film prize to Lukasz Zal for shooting Pawel Pawlikowski's Cold War.  Zal bested Alfonso Cuaron's Roma, thought by many to be the favorite for Oscar glory as well as other TFF #45 films First Man and The Favourite.  The other ASC nominees was A Star Is Born.

Indiewire has the story on the ASC presentation which is linked here.


OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SEVEN MORE CATEGORIES

Here are my Oscar predictions for seven more categories (which completes the wave of predictions for all 24 categories over the past week). 

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avengers: Infinity War
2) First Man
3) Ready Player One
4) Solo: A Star Wars Story
5 Christopher Robin

SOUND EDITING

1) First Man
2) A Quiet Place
3) Black Panther
4) Roma
5) Bohemian Rhapsody

SOUND MIXING

1) A Star Is Born
2) First Man
3) Roma
4) Black Panther
5) Bohemian Rhapsody

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Vice
2) Mary queen of Scots
3) Border

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Bao
2) Animal Behavior
3) Weekends
4) Late Afternoon
5) One Small Step

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Period. End of Sentence.
2) End Game
3) A Night at the Garden
4) Lifeboat
5) Black Sheep

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Marguerite
2) Detainment
3) Fauve
4) Skin
5) Mother




ALBERT FINNEY 1936-2019

Photo via IMDb

 A note here on the passing of this past weekend of five time Oscar nominee Albert Finney.  Finney has a spot in my heart since his role as mobster kingpin Leo in what is probably my favorite Coen Brothers film Miller's Crossing.

Four of Finney's Oscar nominations were for Male Lead: Tom Jones, Murder on the Orient Express, The Dresser and Under the Volcano.  He was also nominated for Supporting Actor in Erin Brockovich.  He turned down a knighthood in 2000.

Finney was 82.

Here's Indiewire's story on Finney's death.



That's the MTFB for this Monday.  More on Thursday.

Updated Oscar Predictions for Seven Categories / New Gurus of Gold / You Can't Rule It Out / First Look at Berlin's First Film

Good Thursday to all you TFF fans...


UPDATED OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SEVEN CATEGORIES

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

1) Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse
2) Incredibles 2
3) Isle of Dogs
4) Mirai
5) Ralph Breaks the Internet

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) If Beale Street Could Talk
2) Mary Poppins Returns
3) Isle of Dogs
4) Black Panther
5) BlacKkKlansman

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Shallow/A Star Is Born
2) All the Stars/Black Panther
3) I'll Fight/RBG
4) The Place Where Lost Things Go/Mary Poppins Returns
5) When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings/The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Roma
2) Cold War
3) A Star Is Born
4) The Favourite
5) Never Look Away

COSTUMES

1) The Favourite
2) Mary Poppins Returns
3) Black Panther
4) Bohemian Rhapsody
5) The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Favourite
2) Black Panther
3) Mary Poppins Returns
4) First Man
5) Roma

FILM EDITING

1) Vice
2) BlacKkKlansman
3) The Favourite
4) Bohemian Rhapsody
5) Green Book

NEW GURUS OF GOLD

Here's the link to the latest Oscar predictions from The Gurus of Gold at Movie City News.  They're linked here.  I'm in relatively good shape in as far as the collective predictions are concerned except in Film Editing where I'm way, way in a different place than the rest of the Gurus.

YOU CAN'T RULE IT OUT

I started seeing hints on Twitter the last couple of days that Martin Scorsese's The Irishman will likely have a theatrical release in September (perhaps late September) before its streaming release on Netflix, which is the money behind the film.  Jordan Ruimy of World of Reel tweeted this on Tuesday night:

Additionally, Ruimy posted a short story on his site which you can see here.

Of course, should this prove out, then the film, which is probably the most anticipated film of the year, has a window to screen at Telluride as well as Venice (if it doesn't screen in Cannes and my money says it screens at Cannes...assuming that fest and Netflix can come to some sort of mutually acceptable set of conditions-see my last post from Feb. 4th) and Toronto.

Making this all the more possible is the success this season of the Netflix produces Roma and should Roma ultimately win the Best Picture Oscar in two and a half weeks the chances of a T-ride play probably increase.

Stay tuned...

FIRST LOOK AT BERLIN'S FIRST FILM

Lone Scherfig's The Kindness of Strangers will open the Berlin Film Fest today.  The film is one of the Berlin titles that seems to me to have potential to be selected for The SHOW's 2019 lineup.

Deadline reported Tuesday that the film's producers have released a trailer for the film.  You can find that story and the embedded trailer here.

The Kindness of Strangers stars Zoe Kazan, Caleb Landry Jones, Andrea Riseborough and Bill Nighy and, in addition to opening the fest, will be one of the film's in competition for the Golden Bear.

Meanwhile, here is more coverage of the Berlinale from Indiewire with a story from David Ehrlich, Kate Erbland and Jude Dry looking at what they say are the ten most anticipated titles of the fest including several that are on my TFF #46 watch list including Mr. Jones, By the Grace of God, The Golden Glove and Varda by Agnes.


That's your MTFB update for this Thursday.  I'll have more on Monday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Oscar Nomination Analysis / Experts Predict Oscar Winners / Film Fest Spec from Screen Daily

Good Thursday.  Here's your latest from MTFB


OSCAR NOMINATION ANALYSIS

Total nominations for TFF #45 films-34 which exceeds the average of 27-28 since I started tracking TFF Oscar nominations.

Plus one from TFF #44...the Original Screenplay nomination for Paul Schrader for First Reformed.

For the record I finished the morning at 78% accuracy...which is right at my normal average.

For Best Pic I was 8 of 8 (because I had 10 picked).

Other perfect categories for me this year: Best Actress, Animated Feature, Foreign Language Film and Production Design.  My worst category this year-Film Editing where I was a measly 2 of 5.  Overall I was 95/122 for the 78%.  In eight categories the film I had pegged as the #6 film ended up in the nominees...so, you know, close.

Biggest shockers to me...

No Bradley Cooper for Directing A Star Is Born.  
No Won't You Be My Neighbor for Documentary.  
No Score nomination for First Man.  
Marina de Tavira getting in Supporting Actress for Roma.  
The love for Buster Scruggs which I'm not sure anyone saw coming. 
No Film Editing noms for Roma, Star or First Man

A couple of added points here that I didn't touch on Tuesday's special post...

The max number of total Oscars that TFF films could win is 18 as there are at least one TFF film nominated in 18 of the 24 categories.  Six categories have no TFF film nominated at all and thus cannot produce a TFF winner.  They are Best Actor, Animated Feature, Original Score, Original Song, Animated Short and Documentary Short.

Of course, that total is unlikely.  Below I have linked to some of the early predictions about possible winners in each category and what that suggests might be the total trophy take on Oscar night, Feb. 24th.

EXPERTS PREDICT OSCAR WINNERS

I have linked here the early Oscar winner predictions from experts with their view of which TFF films win what Oscars on Feb. 24th

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Scott's predicted TFF winners include:

Roma (4): Best Picture, Direction, Foreign Language Film, Cinematography

First Man (1): Visual Effects

For a total of five wins.  Scott foresees The Favourite not winning from any of its field leading (tied with Roma) 10 nominations.

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Sasha's home page right hand column seems to point the way to here early Oscar thinking and it has the following stabs at TFF winners:

Roma (3): Direction, Cinematography, Foreign Language Film

First Reformed (TFF #44-1) Original Screenplay

First Man (2): Sound Editing, Visual Effects

Total of six wins.

Gold Derby's Odds

Roma (4): Best Picture (odds are tied with A Star Is Born), Direction, Cinematography, Foreign Language Film

The Favourite (3): Original Screenplay, Costumes, Production Design

First Man (1): Sound Editing

Total of eight wins.

FILM FEST SPEC FROM SCREEN DAILY

Renee Zellweger in Judy via IMDb

I have been tracking a series of articles from Screen Daily that they have labeled "Films to Tempt Festival Directors" in an attempt to get an early line on some titles that might be on the TFF #46 lineup.

The latest installment focuses on films from the UK and Ireland.  It's a list of 13 films and among them, these are the titles that standout to me as potential players at Telluride:

Untitled Girls Film directed by Sarah Gavron

Greed directed by Michael Winterbottom

Judy directed by  Rupert Goold

Radioactive directed by Marjane Satrapi

Sorry We Missed You directed by Ken Loach

The complete post from Screen Daily is linked here.

That's your MTFB for this Thursday.  I'll have more on Monday.  Have a great weekend.

And the Nominees Are...

AND THE NOMINEES ARE...

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced the nominees for the 91st Academy Awards this morning and here they are:

BEST PICTURE

1) Roma

2) Green Book

3) A Star Is Born

4) BlacKkKlansman

5) Black Panther

6) Vice

7) Bohemian Rhapsody

8) The Favourite

BEST DIRECTION

1) Alfonso Cuaron/Roma

2) Pawel Pawlikowski/Cold War

3) Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman

4) Adam McKay/Vice

5) Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite

BEST ACTRESS

1) Glenn Close/The Wife

2) Olivia Colman/The Favourite

3) Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born

4) Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me?

5) Yalitza Aparicio/Roma

BEST ACTOR

1) Christian Bale/Vice

2) Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody

3) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born

4) Viggo Mortensen/Green Book

5) Willem Dafoe/At Eternity's Gate

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk

2) Rachel Weisz/The Favourite

3) Emma Stone/The Favourite

4) Amy Adams/Vice

5) Marina De Tavira/Roma

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Green Book

2) Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me?

3) Sam Elliott/A Star Is Born

4) Adam Driver/BlacKkKlansman

5) Sam Rockwell/Vice

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Green Book

2) The Favourite

3) Roma

4) Vice

5) First Reformed

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) BlacKkKlansman

2) If Beale Street Could Talk

3) Can You Ever Forgive Me?

4) A Star Is Born

5) The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse

2) Incredibles 2

3) Isle of Dogs

4) Marai

5) Ralph Breaks the Internet

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Hale County This Morning-This Evening

2) RBG

3) Free Solo

4) Minding the Gap

5) Of Fathers and Sons

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Roma

2) Cold War

3) Capernaum

4) Shoplifters

5) Never Look Away

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Roma

2) A Star Is Born

3) Never Look Away

4) Cold War

5) The Favourite

COSTUMES

1) The Favourite

2) Mary Poppins Returns

3) Black Panther

4) Mary Queen of Scots

5) The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

FILM EDITING

1) Green Book

2) Bohemian Rhapsody

3) Vice

4) BlacKkKlansman

5) The Favourite

Maybe: Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Vice

2) Border

3) Mary Queen of Scots

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) If Beale Street Could Talk

2) BlacKkKlansman

3) Mary Poppins Returns

4) Isle of Dogs

5) Black Panther

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Shallow/A Star Is Born

2) All the Stars/Black Panther

3) I'll Fight/RBG

4) When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings/The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

5) Where Lost Things Go/Mary Poppins Return

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Favourite

2) Mary Poppins Returns

3) First Man

4) Black Panther

5) Roma

SOUND EDITING

1) First Man

2) A Quiet Place

3) Black Panther

4) Roma

5) Bohemian Rhapsody

SOUND MIXING

1) A Star Is Born

2) First Man

3) Bohemian Rhapsody

4) Roma

5) Black Panther

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) First Man

2) Christopher Robin

3) Ready Player One

4) Avengers: Infinity War

5) Solo: A Star Wars Story

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Bao

2) One Small Step

3) Weekends

4) Late Afternoon

5) Animal Behavior

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Period. End of Sentence

2) End Game

3)A Night at the Garden

4) Lifeboat

5) Black Sheep

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Mother

2) Skin

3) Detainment

4) Fauve

5) Marguerite

Telluride films that were nominated were:

Roma (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Aparicio), Supporting Actress (De Tavira), Foreign Language Film, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing

The Favourite (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Colman), Supporting Actress (Stone and Weisz), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Costumes

Roma and The Favourite were tied with the most nominations and the only films in double digit nominations.

First Man (4): Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects (Man, how could have been so off about First Man in every possible way.  I thought it was headed for at least eight nominations this morning...and, of course, still thought it could stretch into the Best Picture race...)

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3): Actress (McCarthy), Supporting Actor (Grant), Adapted Screenplay

Cold War (3): Foreign Language Film, Direction, Cinematography

Free Solo (1): Best Documentary

Shoplifters (1): Foreign Language Film

Border (1): Makeup/Hair

Fauve (1): Live Action Short

Total nominations for TFF #45 films-34 which exceeds the average of 27-28 since I started tracking TFF Oscar nominations.

Plus one from TFF #44...the Original Screenplay nomination for Paul Schrader for First Reformed.

For the record I finished the morning at 78% accuracy...which is right at my normal average.

For Best Pic I was 8 of 8 (because I had 10 picked).

Other perfect categories for me this year: Best Actress, Animated Feature, Foreign Language Film and Production Design.  My worst category this year-Film Editing where I was a measly 2 of 5.  Overall I was 95/122 for the 78%.  In eight categories the film I had pegged as the #6 film ended up in the nominees...so, you know, close.

Biggest shockers to me...

No Bradley Cooper for Directing A Star Is Born.  
No Won't You Be My Neighbor for Documentary.  
No Score nomination for First Man.  
Marina de Tavira getting in Supporting Actress for Roma.  
The love for Buster Scruggs which I'm not sure anyone saw coming. 
No Film Editing noms for Roma, Star or First Man

I'll have more on Thursday...