Michael's Telluride Film Blog : Final Oscar Predictions

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily Podcast

Joey Magidson/Awards Radar

Mark Johnson/Good as Gold

Next Best Picture

Gold Derby

Monday, January 23, 2023

MTFB's Final Oscar Nomination Predictions / Predictions from the Experts / What Say You?

FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

Hello all. Here are my final Oscar nomination predictions. The announcement comes tomorrow morning and MTFB will have a Special Edition tomorrow to review the noms and set the table for the run to the Oscar ceremony on March 12th.

A couple of notes: My success rate historically is 75%-80%. In categories where I don't get all five (10 in Best Picture) correct, the 6th ranked contender is a nominee about 75% of the time.

As always TFF films/performers are in Bold.

Here we go...

BEST PICTURE

1) Everything Everywhere All at Once

2) The Banshees of Inisherin

3) The Fabelmans

4) Top Gun: Maverick

5) TAR

6) Elvis

7) Avatar: The Way of Water

8) All Quiet on the Western Front

9) The Whale

10) Women Talking

11) Triangle of Sadness

12) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Other possibilities: Aftersun, Living, GDT's Pinocchio, The Woman King, RRR, Babylon

BEST DIRECTION

1) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans

2) The Daniels/Everything Everywhere All at Once

3) Todd Field/TAR

4) Martin McDonagh/The Banshees of Inisherin

5) Edward Berger/All Quiet on the Western Front

6) Joseph Kosinski/Top Gun: Maverick

7) Baz Luhrman/Elvis

Other possibilities: James Cameron/Avatar, Sarah Polley/Women Talking, Ruben Ortlund/Triangle of Sadness

BEST ACTRESS

1) Cate Blanchett/TAR

2) Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once

3) Danielle Deadwyler/Till

4) Ana de Armas/Blonde

5) Viola Davis/The Woman King (5)

6) Michelle Williams/The Fabelmans

7) Margot Robbie/Babylon

Other possibilities: Olivia Colman/Empire of Light, Andrea Riseborough/To Leslie, Emma Thompson/GoodLuck to You Leo Grande

BEST ACTOR

1) Brendan Fraser/The Whale

2) Austin Butler/Elvis

3) Colin Ferrell/The Banshees of Inisherin

4) Bill Nighy/Living

5) Paul Mescal/Aftersun

6) Tom Cruise/Top Gun: Maverick (5)

7) Tom Hanks/A Man Called Otto

Other possibilities: Adam Sandler/Hustle, Gabriel LaBelle/The Fabelmans, Hugh Jackman/The Son

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Angela Bassett/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

2) Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin

3) Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere All at Once

4) Hong Chau/The Whale

5) Stephanie Hsu/Everything Everywhere All at Once

6) Dolly DeLeon/Triangle of Sadness

7) Michelle Williams/The Fabelmans

Other possibilities: Janelle Monae/Glass Onion, Jesse Buckley/Women Talking, Carey Mulligan/She Said

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once

2) Brendan Gleeson/The Banshees of Inisherin

3) Barry Keoghan/The Banshees of Inisherin

4) Paul Dano/The Fabelmans

5) Eddie Redmayne/The Good Nurse

6) Judd Hirsch/The Fabelmans

7) Brad Pitt/Babylon

Other possibilities: Ben Whishaw/Women Talking, Bryan Tyree Henry/Causeway

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Women Talking

2) Living

3) All Quiet on the Western Front

4) The Whale

5) Glass Onion

6) She Said

7) Top Gun: Maverick

Other possibilities: White Noise, GDT's Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Banshees of Inisherin

2) Everything Everywhere All at Once

3) TAR

4)The Fabelmans

5) Triangle of Sadness (5)

6) Aftersun

7) Elvis

Other possibilities: Babylon, Nope, The Menu

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) GDT's Pinocchio

2) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

3) Turning Red

4) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

5) Wendall and Wild

6) Lightyear

7) Strange World

Other possibilities: Inu-Oh, Minons: The Rise of Gru

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

2) All That Breathes

3) Fire of Love

4) Descendant

5) Navalny

6) The Territory

7) Retrograde

Other possibilities: Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, Bad Axe, Last Flight Home

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) All Quiet on the Western Front

2) Close

3) Decision to Leave

4) Argentina 1985

5 Eo

6) Saint Omer

7) Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths

Other possibilities: Holy Spider, Return to Seoul, The Quiet Girl

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Top Gun: Maverick

2) Avatar: The Way of Water

3) The Fabelmans

4) Empire of Light

5) All Quiet on the Western Front

6) Babylon

7) TAR

Other possibilities: Elvis, The Batman, Bardo, Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST FILM EDITING

1) Top Gun: Maverick

2) Everything Everywhere All at Once

3) The Fabelmans

4) Elvis

5) Avatar: The Way of Water

6) The Banshees of Inisherin

7) TAR

Other possibilities: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Woman King

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Elvis

2) Avatar: The Way of Water

3) Babylon

4) The Fabelmans

5) All Quiet on the Western Front

6) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

7) Everything Everywhere All at Once

Other possibilities: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, GDT's Pinocchio, The Banshees of Inisherin

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Fabelmans

2) Babylon

3) Women Talking

4) Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

5) The Banshees of Inisherin

6) The Woman King (6)

7) Avatar: The Way of Water (7)

Other possibilities: All Quiet on the Western Front, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Nope

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Naatu Naatu/RRR

2) Lift Me Up/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

3) Hold My Hand/Top Gun: Maverick

4) Ciao Papa/Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

5) Applause/Tell It Like a Woman

6) New Body Rhumba/White Noise

7) Carolina/Where the Crawdads Sing

Other possibilities: Good Afternoon/Spirited, Stand Up/Till, Til Your Home/A man Called Otto

BEST SOUND

1) Top Gun: Maverick

2) Avatar: The Way of Water

3) Elvis

4) All Quiet on the Western Front

5) Everything Everywhere All at Once

6) Babylon

7) The Batman

Other possibilities: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, GDT's Pinocchio, Moonage Daydream

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Elvis

2) The Whale

3) The Batman

4) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

5) All Quiet on the Western Front

6) Babylon

7) Blonde

Other possibilities: Amsterdam, Emancipation, Crimes of the Future

COSTUME

1) Elvis

2) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

3) Babylon

4) Living

5) The Woman King

6) The Fabelmans

7) Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Other possibilities: Everything Everywhere All at Once, Don't Worry Darling, The Banshees of Inisherin

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: The Way of Water

2) Top Gun: Maverick

3) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4) The Batman

5) All Quiet on the Western Front

6) Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

7) Nope

Other possibilities: Fantastic Beasts, Jurassic World Dominion, Thirteen Lives

ANIMATED SHORT

1) The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

2) New Moon

3) An Ostrich told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

4) The Flying Sailor

5) Ice Merchants

6) Save Ralph

7) More Than I Want to Remember

Other possibilities: It's Nice in Here, Steakhouse, The Garbage Man

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Nuisance Bear

2) The Elephant Whisperers

3) 38 at the Garden

4) How Do You Measure a Year

5) The Flagmakers

6) The Martha Mitchell Effect

7) Haulot

Other possibilities: Anastasia, Angola Do You Hear Us, Stranger at the Gate, As Far as They Can Run

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) An Irish Goodbye

2) The Red Suitcase

3) Le Pupille

4) Almost Home

5) Warsha

6) Ivalu

7) All in Favor

Other possibilities: Nakam, The Treatment, Sideral, Lone Wolf

All told, I am predicting 16 nominations for nine Telluride films to be announced tomorrow morning:

TAR (4 nominations with 2 more possibilities) Noms: Best Picture, Direction/Field, Actress/Blanchett and Original Screenplay. Possibles: Cinematography and Editing.

Women Talking (3 nominations with 3 more possibilities) Noms: Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay and Score. Possibles: Direction/Polley, Supporting Actress/Buckley and Supporting Actor/Whishaw.

Living (3 nominations) Best Actor/Nighy, Adpated Screenplay and Costumes.

Aftersun (1 nomination and 2 more possibilities) Nom: Best Actor/Mescal. Possibles: Best Picture and Original Screenplay

Empire of Light (1 nomination and 1 possibility) Nom: Best Cinematography. Possible: Best Actress/Colman

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (1 nomination and 1 possibility) Nom: Best Animated Feature. Possible: Adapted Screenplay

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (1 nomination) Best Documentary

Close (1 nomination) Best International Film

Le Pupille (1 nomination) Best Live Action Short

Other "outside shots":

Retrograde, Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song and Last Flight Home for Best Documentary

Bardo and Holy Spider for Best International Film. Bardo also has a shot in Cinematography.

Anastasia and Angola Do You Hear Us: Voices from a Plantation Prison in Best Documentary Short

Sideral in Best Live Action Short.

From an overall perspective I am predicting that Everything Everywhere All at Once and All Quiet on the Western Front will co-lead the field with nine nominations apiece.

The Banshees of Inisherin and The Fabelmans will each have eight nominations.

Elvis will have seven.

Avatar: The Way of Water and Top Gun: Maverick will have six each.

The Whale and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will each have five.

We'll see what happens tomorrow.

PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

Here I have linked to Oscar predictions from some of the best in the business. See what they have to say.

Joey Magidson/Awards Radar

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture

Mark Johnson/Good as Gold

Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Nate Jones/Vulture

WHAT SAY YOU?

Who/what do YOU think will be nominated tomorrow morning? Who/what do YOU want to hear when the nominees are read? Drop me a comment, email, or Tweet.

Sunday, March 27, 2022

Final Oscar Winner Predictions/ Ten Categories That Will Determine Your Oscar Pool / Final Oscar Predictions from the Experts

FINAL OSCAR WINNER PREDICTIONS

BEST PICTURE

1) The Power of the Dog

2) CODA

3) Belfast

4) King Richard

5) West Side Story

6) Dune

7) Licorice Pizza

8) Don't Look Up

9) Drive My Car

10) Nightmare Alley

Comment: Most of the Oscarologists are saying CODA wins in a close race. I's sticking with The Power of the Dog mostly because my TFF metric that has been right (The Composite Telluride Ratings).

BEST DIRECTION

1) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog

2) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast

3) Steven Spielberg/West Side Story

4) Licorice Pizza/Paul Thomas Anderson

5) Ryusuke Hamaguchi/Drive My Car

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye

2) Penelope Cruz/Parallel

3) Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos

4) Kristen Stewart/Spencer

5) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter

Comment: Chastain seems to have slight edge but the move to Cruz as a possible winner this last week has been palpable.

BEST ACTOR

1) Will Smith/King Richard

2) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog

3) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM

4) Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth

5) Javier Bardem/Being the Ricardos

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Ariana DeBose/West Side Story

2) Kirsten Dunst/The Power of the Dog

3) Aunjanue Ellis/King Richard

4) Jesse Buckley/The Lost Daughter

5) Judi Dench/Belfast

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Troy Kotsur/CODA

2) Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog

3) Ciaran Hinds/Belfast

4) Jesse Plemons/The Power of the Dog

5) J.K. Simmons/Being the Ricardos

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Belfast

2) Licorice Pizza

3) Don't Look Up

4) The Worst Person in the World

5) King Richard

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) CODA

2) The Power of the Dog

3) The Lost Daughter

4) Drive My Car

5) Dune.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Summer of Soul

2) Flee

3) Attica

4) Ascension

5) Writing with Fire

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Encanto

2) The Mitchells vs. the Machines

3) Luca

4) Flee

5) Raya and the Last Dragon

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Drive My Car

2) The Worst Person in the World

3) Flee

4) The Hand of God

5) Luana: A Yak in the Classroom

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) The Tragedy of Macbeth

4) Nightmare Alley

5) West Side Story

BEST EDITING

1) Dune

2) King Richard

3) The Power of the Dog

4) Don't Look Up

5) tick, tick...BOOM

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Dune

2) Nightmare Alley

3) West Side Story

4) The Power of the Dog

5) The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) Encanto

4) Don't Look Up

5) Parallel Mothers

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) No Time to Die/No Time to Die

2) Dos Oruguitas/Encanto

3) Be Alive/King Richard

4) Down to Joy/Belfast

5) Somehow You Do/Four Good Days

BEST COSTUMES

1) Cruella

2) Dune

3) Nightmare Alley

4) West Side Story

5) Cyrano

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune

2) Spiderman: No Way Home

3) No Time to Die

4) Shang Chi

5) Free Guy

BEST SOUND

1) Dune

2) No Time to Die

3) West Side Story

4) The Power of the Dog

5) Belfast

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Eyes of Tammy Faye

2) Cruella

3) Dune

4) Coming 2 America

5) House of Gucci

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) Robin Robin

2) Bestia

3) The Windshield Wiper

3) Affairs of the Art

5) Boxballet

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) The Queen of Basketball

2) Audible

3) Three Songs for Benezir

4) When We Were Bullies

5) Lead Me Home

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) The Long Goodbye

2) Al Kachuu-Take and Run

3) The Dress

4) Please Hold

5) On My Mind

TEN CATEGORIES THAT WILL DETERMINE YOUR OSCAR POOL

The ten categories with enough mystery/uncertainty that will determine your Oscar pool winners tonight:

Best Picture: Experts say CODA in a squeaker over The Power of the Dog with a whisper or two that Belfast could still upset on a preferential ballot.

Best Actress: One of the most fluid categories of the year. Remember when Kristen Stewart was supposedly a "lock"? The experts are leaning toward Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye but within the last week there has been a real move toward Penelope Cruz.

Best Original Screenplay: Belfast seems to be out front but don't be surprised if Paul Thomas Anderson's Licorice Pizza comes out of the envelope.

Best Adapted Screenplay: A barn burner between CODA and The Poser of the Dog...just like Best Picture. The Lost Picture as surprise is not totally out of the question.

Best Score: Likely Hans Zimmer wins his second Oscar for Dune but it could be The Power of the Dog or even Encanto.

Best Editing: Another probable Dune win though King Richard's win at the Editing Guild (A.C.E. Eddies) could suggest a different outcome.

Best Cinematography: Dune leads but "The Dog" is nipping at its heals.

And, as always, the Shorts categories likely will have a big influence on who wins your Oscar pool. In Live Action Short The Long Goodbye seems like the only near lock in any of the three categories. In the Short Doc category The Queen of Basketball and Audible seem to be in a tight race much like Robin Robin and Bestia in Animated Short.

FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Mark Johnson/Good as Gold

Joey Nolfi/Entertainment Weekly

Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture

Peter Howell/The Toronto Star

Awards Daily BIG BAD Predictions Chart

Gold Derby Oscar Odds

Sunday, April 25, 2021

MTFB'S FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR TONIGHT

FINAL OSCAR PREDICITONS FOR TONIGHT

Best Picture: Nomadland. Upset Special: The Trial of the Chicago 7.

Best Direction: Chloe Zhao/Nomadland, Upset Special: Emerald Fennell/Promising Young Woman.

Best Actress: Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman. Upset Special: Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.

Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. Upset Special: Anthony Hopkins/The Father.

Best Supporting Actress: Yuh-jung Youn/Minari. Upset Special: Maria Bakalova/Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.

Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah. Upset Special: Sacha Baron Cohen/The Trial of the Chicago 7.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland. Upset Special: The Father.

Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman. Upset Special: The Trial of the Chicago 7.

Best International Feature: Another Round. Upset Special: Quo Vadis Aida.

Best Documentary Feature: My Octopus Teacher,. Upset Special: Crip Camp.

Best Animated Feature: Soul. Upset Special: Wolfwalkers.

Best Original Score: Soul. Upset Special: Mank.

Best Original Song: Speak Now/One Night in Miami. Upset Special: Io Si/The Life Ahead.

Best Cinematography: Nomadland. Upset Special: Mank.

Best Editing: The Trial of the Chicago 7. Upset Special: Sound of Metal.

Best Production Design: Mank. Upset Special: News of the World.

Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. Upset Special: Emma.

Best Makeup/Hair: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. Upset Special: Hillbilly Elegey

Best Sound: Sound of Metal. Upset Special: News of the World.

Best Visual Effects: Tenet. Upset Special: The Midnight Sky.

Best Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love You. Upset Special: Burrow.

Best Live Action Short: Two Distant Strangers. Upset Special: Feeling Through.

Best Documentary Short: A Concerto Is a Conversation. Upset Special: A Love Song for Latasha

TFF Stats:

Nomadland nominated for six Oscars: Picture, Director, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Editing. I am predicting it to win four: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography.

The Father nominated for six Oscars: Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Editing and Production Design. I have predicted that it wins no Oscars tonight BUT...Hopkins is the Upset Special for Best Actor and his buzz has been growing for the past couple of weeks. The Father is also the Upset Special for Adapted Screenplay.

The only other TFF #47 is the Live Action Short nominee The Letter Room.

The most Oscars that TFF #47 films could snag in total tonight is 10.

The categories that feel to me like the ones that are going to be Oscar poll deciders are: Best Actress, the two screenplay categories, Documentary, Song and, as always, the Shorts categories.

OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

Here are links to a number of Oscarologists for tonight's winners:

Sasha Stone/ Awards Daily

Mark Johnson/Good as Gold/Awards Daily.

Eric Kohn and Anne Thompson/Indiewire (Screen Talk podcast)

Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience

Steve Pond/The Wrap

Joey Magidson/Awards Radar

Matt Neglia (and crew)/Next Best Picture

Jason Osiason/Fantastic Film Fans