Oscar #97 in the Rear View / Forging Ahead

OSCAR #97 IN THE REAR VIEW

Sunday night's Oscar ceremony brought few, if any, real upsets.  I personally was 16 of 23 for a 69.6% success rate which is among the lowest rates of success since I started posting Oscar predictions on this site. 

Still, in the case of the seven misses, my "Possible Upset" picked up the statuette in five of the seven categories: Actress, Documentary, Animated Feature, Editing and Documentary Short.  Leaving out the Shorts categories, I was a much more respectable 16 of 20 for 80% among the Feature categories.

I felt some better the next morning when Gold Derby posted the records of their experts..  Had I been among them (there are 38 of them) I would have tied for eighth overall.  Among those with which I tied were Indiewire's Anne Thompson and The Contending's Mark Johnson.  Some experts over which I had a better score were: The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg (65.2%), Deadline's Pete Hammond (65.2%), ABC's Peter Travers (56.5%)  and Variety's Clayton Davis (56.5%).

So, as I said after the nominations dropped in January...where do I apply to be a Gold Derby expert?

Again. TFF films nabbed 10 Oscars.  That's the best since the 2016 edition of TFF when fest films earned 12 Oscars (the year of Moonlight and La La Land).  This year's collection is either tied for second or third most depending if you count the 2008 year wherein Slumdog Millionaire won eight and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button which won three.  Button only screened a few minutes as a part of the tribute to David Fincher.  So 2008 might be eight or eleven if you count Button.

TFF's 2013 edition had 10 Oscars.  That was the 12 Years a Slave (3) and Gravity (7) year.

Here's another thing that I found revealing.  Since I started the polling of Telluride attendees both with the People and the Professionals TFF has had nine films win Best Picture:

Argo

12 Years a Slave

Birdman

Spotlight

Moonlight

The Shape of Water

Parasite

Nomadland***

Anora

Eight of the nine finished at #1 on the Composite Telluride ratings where I add the ratings from the People and the Professionals together.  The only exception was Nomadland which, of course, couldn't be polled as the fest didn't happen due to Covid.  I still count it as TFF film Best Picture Oscar winner as the fest went out of its way  to premiere the film in Los Angeles as a Drive-In experience.

Seems to me that hitting that #1 Composite spot is kind of telling.  

Other films since I started polling that had the #1 Composite rating but did not win Best Picture:

2018- Roma

2021-The Power of the Dog

2022-TAR

2023-Poor Things

Anora became the 12th TFF film to win Best Picture.

Of the 12, six World Premiered at Telluride: 

Slumdog Millionaire

The King's Speech

Argo

12 Years a Slave

Moonlight

Nomadland (see above)

Three screened at Venice before Telluride:

Birdman

Spotlight

The Shape of Water

Three screened at Cannes before telluride:

The Artist

Parasite

Anora

Of the five other films that have won Best Picture since Slumdog in 2008, no other festival World Premiered the subsequent Best Picture more than once:

2009: The Hurt Locker (Venice, so it totals five)

2018: Green Book (Toronto)

2021: CODA (Sundance)

2022: Everything, Everywhere, All at Once (South by Southwest)

2023: Oppenheimer (No Festival appearance)

FORGING AHEAD

So Oscar is done for another season and MTFB turns to the sleuthing of films for the TFF #52 lineup.  Regular readers have already seen some analysis here based on "Most Anticipated" lists from a couple of outlets since the turn of the year.

Now our attention will turn to two primary areas that can give clues...early Oscar predictions and Cannes speculation.  I'll start parsing that with Monday's post.

For those who might remember last year's debacle concerning purchasing tickets...no problem this year.  We've got them and lodging locked down.  Bring on TFF #52!

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TFF Oscar Streak Continues / 2021 Oscar Rundown

 TFF OSCAR STREAK CONTINUES

The Telluride Film Festival didn't happen for the 2020-21 Oscar season and still managed to extend its streak of having scheduled and screened (at a drive-in) the eventual Best Picture Oscar winner.  11 of the last 13 Oscar winning Best Pictures screened as a part of the festival.  The only two exceptions have been The Hurt Locker for 2009 and Green Book for 2018.

Here's the run:

2008: Slumdog Millionaire

2010: The King's Speech

2011: The Artist

2012: Argo

2013: 12 Years a Slave

2014: Birdman

2015: Spotlight

2016: Moonlight

2017: The Shape of Water

2019: Parasite

2020: Nomadland

2021 OSCAR RUNDOWN

Here are the winners of the 2021 Academy Awards:

Best Picture: Nomadland. 

Best Direction: Chloe Zhao/Nomadland,

Best Actress: Frances McDormand/Nomadland

Best Actor: Anthony Hopkins/The Father.

Best Supporting Actress: Yuh-jung Youn/Minari.  

Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah.

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Father.

Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman.

Best International Feature: Another Round. 

Best Documentary Feature: My Octopus Teacher.

Best Animated Feature: Soul. 

Best Original Score: Soul. 

Best Original Song: Fight for You/Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Cinematography: Mank.

Best Editing: Sound of Metal.

Best Production Design: Mank. 

Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. 

Best Makeup/Hair: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.

Best Sound: Sound of Metal. 

Best Visual Effects: Tenet. 

Best Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love You. 

Best Live Action Short: Two Distant Strangers.  

Best Documentary Short: Colette

Nomadland led the way with three wins- Best Picture, Best Direction, Best Actress-on a night when The Academy really did share the wealth.  Its wins along with the two for The Father- Best Actor and  Best Adapted Screenplay-gave TFF #47 a respectable total of five Oscars.

The Father' double win was part of a substantial list of two win films on the night.

The rundown of wins by film:

Nomadland- 3- Picture, Direction, Actress.

The Father- 2- Actor, Adapted Screenplay

Soul- 2- Animated Feature, Score

Judas and the Black Messiah- 2- Supporting Actor, Song

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom- 2- Costumes, Makeup/Hair

Sound of Metal- 2- Editing, Sound

Mank- 2- Production Design, Cinematography

Single feature film wins for: Minari, Promising Young Woman, Another Round, My Octopus Teacher and Tenet.

On a personal level:

I correctly predicted 16 of the 23 categories with an additional four statues going to films that I listed as Upset Specials. That's just shy of 70% which is under my average (79.6%) for the past several years.

My biggest surprise of the evening was McDormand winning Best Actress.  I really did not believe she's win again so soon after her Three Billboards win.

Now we gear up with some seriousness of purpose working under the assumption the Telluride happens in 19 weeks to suss out what its lineup looks will look like.

Back to it!

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MTFB'S FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR TONIGHT

 FINAL OSCAR PREDICITONS FOR TONIGHT

Best Picture: Nomadland.  Upset Special: The Trial of the Chicago 7.

Best Direction: Chloe Zhao/Nomadland,  Upset Special: Emerald Fennell/Promising Young Woman.

Best Actress: Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman.  Upset Special: Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.

Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.  Upset Special: Anthony Hopkins/The Father.

Best Supporting Actress: Yuh-jung Youn/Minari.  Upset Special: Maria Bakalova/Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.

Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah.  Upset Special: Sacha Baron Cohen/The Trial of the Chicago 7.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland.  Upset Special: The Father.

Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman.  Upset Special: The Trial of the Chicago 7.

Best International Feature: Another Round. Upset Special: Quo Vadis Aida.

Best Documentary Feature: My Octopus Teacher,. Upset Special: Crip Camp.

Best Animated Feature: Soul.  Upset Special: Wolfwalkers.

Best Original Score: Soul.  Upset Special: Mank.

Best Original Song: Speak Now/One Night in Miami.  Upset Special: Io Si/The Life Ahead.

Best Cinematography: Nomadland.  Upset Special: Mank.

Best Editing: The Trial of the Chicago 7.  Upset Special: Sound of Metal.

Best Production Design: Mank.  Upset Special: News of the World.

Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.  Upset Special: Emma.

Best Makeup/Hair: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.  Upset Special: Hillbilly Elegey

Best Sound: Sound of Metal.  Upset Special: News of the World.

Best Visual Effects: Tenet.  Upset Special: The Midnight Sky.

Best Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love You.  Upset Special: Burrow.

Best Live Action Short: Two Distant Strangers.  Upset Special:  Feeling Through.

Best Documentary Short: A Concerto Is a Conversation.  Upset Special: A Love Song for Latasha

TFF Stats:

Nomadland nominated for six Oscars: Picture, Director, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Editing.  I am predicting it to win four: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography.

The Father nominated for six Oscars: Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Editing and Production Design.  I have predicted that it wins no Oscars tonight BUT...Hopkins is the Upset Special for Best Actor and his buzz has been growing for the past couple of weeks.  The Father is also the Upset Special for Adapted Screenplay.  

The only other TFF #47 is the Live Action Short nominee The Letter Room.

The most Oscars that TFF #47 films could snag in total tonight is 10.

The categories that feel to me like the ones that are going to be Oscar poll deciders are: Best Actress, the two screenplay categories,  Documentary, Song and, as always, the Shorts categories.

OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

Here are links to a number of Oscarologists for tonight's winners:

Sasha Stone/ Awards Daily

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Clayton Davis/Variety

Mark Johnson/Good as Gold/Awards Daily.

Eric Kohn and Anne Thompson/Indiewire (Screen Talk podcast)

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch

Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience 

Steve Pond/The Wrap

Joey Magidson/Awards Radar

Matt Neglia (and crew)/Next Best Picture

Jason Osiason/Fantastic Film Fans

Gregory Ellwood/The Playlist

And of course, for the last time this Oscar season, the link to the final collective predictions of The Gurus of Gold at Movie City News.

I'll have some post Oscar thoughts in tomorrow's regularly scheduled edition of MTFB.

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Oscar Winners Predix #7: Picture, Director and Lead Acting Categories / Last Gurus of Gold for This Season / New Cousins Project-Could It Play TFF #48?

 OSCAR WINNERS PREDIX #7- PICTURE, DIRECTOR, LEAD ACTING CATEGORIES

Here's my next to last attempt to predict this year's Academy Awards winners.  THE FINAL MTFB OSCAR PICKS will go up on Sunday morning.  As always, TFF participants are indicated in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Nomadland

2) The Trial of the Chicago 7

3) Promising Young Woman

4) Minari

5) Judas and the Black Messiah

6) Mank

7) Sound of Metal

8) The Father

BEST DIRECTION

1) Chloe Zhao/Nomadland

2) Emerald Ferrell/Promising Young Woman

3) David Fincher/Mank

4) Lee Issac Chung/Minari

5) Thomas Vinterberg/Another Round

BEST ACTRESS

1) Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman

2) Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

3) Andra Day/The United States vs. Billie Holiday

4) Frances McDormand/Nomadland

5) Vanessa Kirby/Pieces of a Woman

BEST ACTOR

1) Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

2) Anthony Hopkins/The Father

3) Riz Ahmed/Sound of Metal

4) Steven Yeun/Minari

5) Gary Oldman/Mank

LAST GURUS OF GOLD FOR THIS SEASON 

The last Gurus of gold for this Oscar season is expected to drop at Movie City News in the next day or two.  You can expect to see collected takes from all of the Gurus for all 23 Oscar categories including the Short Film categories.

Other Gurus include Sasha Stone of Awards Daily, Peter Howell of the Toronto Star, Gregory Ellwood of The Playlist, Dave Karger of Turner Classic Movies and Steve Pond of The Wrap among others.

Bit of a Disclaimer: My predictions you see for the Gurus could have changed by Sunday morning!

NEW COUSINS PROJECT-COULD IT PLAY TFF #48?

Variety has a new interview out with film maker Mark Cousins that's focused on his new film The Story of Looking.  The article reveals that the film will be screened as a work in progress at the Swedish Visions du Real Festival.

The screening suggests that the new project could and likely will be available come Labor Day weekend.  Cousins has had an extensive track record at Telluride over the last several years with screenings of The Story of Film: An Odyssey, A Story of Children and Film and What Is This Film Called Love?

So, don't be surprised when the Telluride #48 lineup is announced if it includes The Story of Looking. 

The complete Variety article is linked here.

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Oscar Predix #6: Screenplays and Shorts / The Gurus Update / Cannes Commits and Late Breaking News from Cannes/ The Truffle Hunters Collect More Hardware

OSCAR PREDIX #6: SCREENPLAYS AND SHORTS

I'm back predicting the winners of this year's Oscars with less than a week left until the awards are passed out.  Today I am updating the Screenplay and Shorts categories.  As always TFF #47 film are in Bold.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Promising Young Woman

2) The Trial of the Chicago 7

3) Minari

4) Judas and the Black Messiah

5) Sound of Metal

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Nomadland

2) The Father

3) Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

4) One Night in Miami

5) The White Tiger

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) If Anything Happens I Love You

2) Burrow

3) Genuis Loci

4) Opera

5) Yes-People

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) A Concerto Is a Conversation

2) A Love Song for Latasha

3) Colette

4) Do Not Split

5) Hunger Ward

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Two Distant People

2) Feeling Through

3) The Present

4) The Letter Room

5) White Eye

I'll have another set of predictions on Thursday and then a special Sunday morning edition of  MTFB with final predictions for this long, long Oscar season.

THE GURUS UPDATE

The newest Gurus of Gold is up at Movie City News.  We were tasked this week with predicting Best Picture as well as picking three upsets that would make us happy...not that would necessarily actually win.

You can find the latest Gurus of Gold predictions linked here.

CANNES COMMMITS

Lots of outlets were reporting this week that Cannes International Film Festival Director Thierry Fremaux is adamantly claiming that the fest will take place July 6-17 and will be a live not virtual event.

Variety was the first source that I could find that was talking about the commitment to the date back on April 8th.  The article also says the effort to schedule the world premiere of Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch for Cannes has been ongoing.  

Subsequently, I have discovered further news stories that are bolder about the fest's plans.  Rappler.com reporting that:

“We are sure that Cannes will take place in July,” declared Thierry Fremaux, director of Cannes Film Festival in our recent video conversation.

Thierry vowed that the world’s most prestigious film festival, which he has led since 2004, will go live, in-person from July 6 to 17 this year."

Fremaux is also quoted as having lined about The French Dispatch as well as Paul Verhoeven's Benedetta for the French fest:

“Regarding films, I, of course, won’t tell you any title except the films that we all know were already selected from last year, including by Wes Anderson (The French Dispatch) and Paul Verhoeven (Benedetta). They will be back in the official selection.”

Fremaux is also quoted as saying that he expects to announce the lineup in late May or early June.

Should Cannes actually take place in July, the fall film fests, including Telluride would largely be unaffected.  For TFF that probably means that the sharing of what is an on average of eight or so films with Cannes could still be likely.

The complete article from Rappler.com is linked here.

LATE BREAKING NEWS FROM CANNES...

Variety is reporting this morning that the 74th Cannes Film Festival will open with Leos Carax's Annette starring Marion Cotillard and Adam Driver.  Variety reports the film will screen on July 7th and will play in competition.

From Variety.

Here's the trailer that dropped with the announcement from YouTube:

THE TRUFFLE HUNTERS COLLECT MORE HARDWARE

Fresh off their DGA for Best Direction of a Feature Documentary on April 10th,  The Truffle Hunters directors Michael Dweck and Gregory Kershaw won the American Society of Cinematographers Award for Best Cinematography for a Documentary this past weekend.

The Truffle Hunters was a selection of TFF #47.

Mank won Best Cinematography for a Feature Film beating out Nomadland in a bit of a surprise.

Indiewire has the coverage of the ASC wards here.

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Oscar Winners Predix #5: Picture, Supporting Acting and More / Play Along

 OSCAR WINNERS PREDICITONS #5: PICTURE, SUPPROTING ACTOR AND MORE

I'm back predicting the winners of this year's Oscars with ten days left until the awards are passed out.  Today I am updating the supporting acting categories as well as predicting the winners for Costume Design, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects for the first time since nominations were announced.  As always TFF #47 film are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Nomadland

2) The Trial of the Chicago 7

3) Promising Young Woman

4) Minari

5) Judas and the Black Messiah

6) Mank

7) Sound of Metal

8) The Father

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Yuh-Jung Youn/Minari

2) Maria Bakalova/Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

3) Glenn Close/Hillbilly Elegy

4) Olivia Colman/The Father

5) Amanda Seyfried/Mank

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah

2) Sacha Baron Cohen/The Trial of the Chicago 7

3) Leslie Odom, Jr./One Night in Miaimi

4) Paul Raci/Sound of Metal

5) LaKeith Stanfield?Judas and the Black Messiah

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

2) Emma

3) Mulan

4) Mank

5) Pinocchio

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

2) Hillbilly Elegy

3) Emma

4) Mank

5) Pinocchio

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Tenet

2) The Midnight Sky

3) Mulan

4) The One and Only Ivan

5) Love and Monsters

PLAY ALONG

Oscar voters get ballots and can start voting today.  In that spirit, Awards Daily has announced its annual Oscar predicting contest.  You can play along with everyone from amateurs to experts to the members of the Academy.  Heck, you can lift my predictions if you want to!

The link to get in on the fun is here.

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Oscar Winners Predix #4: Lead Acting, Score, Song and Sound / DGA Awards Some Telluride Players / Speaking of Directors / BAFTA Winners

 OSCAR PREDIX #4: LEADING ACTOR, SCORE, SONG AND SOUND

I'm back predicting the winners of this year's Oscars with less than two weeks left until the awards are passed out.  Today I am updating the lead acting categories as well as predicting the winners for Score, Song and Sound for the first time since nominations were announced.  As always TFF #47 film are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman

2) Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

3) Frances McDormand/Nomadland

4) Andra Day/The United States vs. Billie Holiday

5) Vanessa Kirby/Pieces of a Woman

Note: This race is really tight, so it seems, with Viola Davis and Carey Mulligan neck and neck and just a hair in front of Frances McDormand and Andra Day.  I have Mulligan in the top spot but that could change by Oscar morning when I will be posting my final predictions in all 23 categories.

BEST ACTOR

1) Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

2) Anthony Hopkins/The Father

3) Riz Ahmed/Sound of Metal

4) Steven Yeun/Minari

5) Gary Oldman/Mank

Note: Boseman stills seems to be the easy choice here but Hopkins BAFTA win yesterday does give one a little bit of a pause.

BEST SCORE

1) Soul

2) Mank

3) Minari

4) News of the World

5) Da 5 Bloods

Note: Soul is a prohibitive favorite.

BEST SONG

1) Speak Now/One Night in Miami

2) Io Si (Seen)/The Life Ahead

3) Fight for You/Judas and the Black Messiah

4) Husavik/Eurovision 

5) Hear My Voice/The Trial of the Chicago 7

Note: A fairly competitive category with Speak Now and Io Si (Seen) very close and a win for either Fight for You not out of the question.

BEST SOUND

1) Sound of Metal

2) News of the World

3) Mank

4) Soul

5) Greyhound

Note: Sound of Metal is a prohibitive favorite.

THE DIRECTORS GUILD AWARDS SOME TELLURIDE PLAYERS

The Directors Guild of America named their winners for excellence for 2020/21 and a couple of the big awards went to directors who would have been in Telluride last September had the fest been able to occur.

Chloe Zhao was named Best Director for a feature film for Nomadland and Michael and Gregory Kershaw were named Best Director for The Truffle Hunters.  Both films were listed by the Telluride Film Festival as films that would have played at the 47th edition.

The complete list of winners can be found here at the DGA website.

SPEAKING OF DIRECTORS

Jane Campion (via Variety)

As I was writing about the DGA results, I saw that Variety's Clayton Davis had re-posted an article named "Directors Whose Work We're Excited to See in 2021".  So, here's the f=directors from that list that have been to Telluride before and the projects that we expect to appear before the end of the year:

Andrea Arnold/Cow

Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog

Joel Coen/The Tragedy of MacBeth

Guillermo Del Toro/Nightmare Alley

Tom McCarthy/Stillwater

Denis Villenueve/Dune

Chloe Zhao/The Eternals

The complete list and more is linked here.

BAFTA WINNERS

Nomadland had a really fine night last night at the awards ceremony for the British Academy of Television Arts and Sciences winning four of the organizations Golden Masks.

Chloe Zhao's examination of the wanderers that make up a large community of R.V. dwellers in the American west won Best Picture as well Zhao for Best Director, Frances McDormand for Best Actress and Best Cinematography.

Florian Zeller's The Father also pulled off a major upset and a minor upset.  Anthony Hopkins upset Chadwick Boseman in the Best Actor category while Zeller and Christopher Hampton won Best Adapted Screenplay over Zhao for her Nomadland screenplay.

You can find the complete listing of BAFTA winners here from The Hollywood Reporter.

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Oscar Winners Predix #3: Picture and More / Mainstream Trailer / More Cannes Date Speculation

 OSCAR WINNERS PREDIX #3: PICTURE AND MORE

I'm back predicting the winners of this year's Oscars with 17 days left until the awards are passed out.  Today I am updating Best Picture and Director categories as well as predicting the winners for Cinematography, Film Editing and Production Design for the first time since nominations were announced.  As always TFF #47 film are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Nomadland

2) Promising Young Woman

3) The Trial of the Chicago 7

4) Minari

5) Judas and the Black Messiah

6) Mank

7) Sound of Metal

8) The Father

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Chloe Zhao/Nomadland

2) Emerald Fennell/Promising Young Woman

3) David Fincher/Mank

4) Lee Isaac Chung/Minari

5) Thomas Vinterberg/Another Round

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Nomadland

2) Mank

3) News of the world

4) The Trial of the Chicago 7

5) Judas and the Black Messiah

BEST FILM EDITING

1) Sound of Metal

2) The Trial of the Chicago 7

3) Nomadland

4) Promising Young Woman

5) The Father

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Mank

2) News of the World

3) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

4) The Father

5) Tenet

MAINSTREAM TRAILER 

Goa Coppola's Mainstream was to have been a film that would have screened ata TFF #47 had it happened.  The film stars Andrew Garfield and Maya Hawke and has been dated for release on May 7th.  IFC, which is distributing the film, dropped a new trailer for the film earlier this week.  That trailer is here via YouTube:

MORE CANNES DATE SPECULATION

Roger Friedman's ShowBiz411 wrote yesterday that:

"I’ve already reported that the Film Festival has been eyeing a move to October. No one would be against that. It would put the festival in closer proximity to Oscar buzz."

That continues to fan the flames of the possibility of a Cannes fall festival that could turn the entire film fest season on its ear.

The complete Friedman article is linked here.

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Oscar Update: Predicting Winners in the Big Eight / More on Tavernier

 PREDICTING WINNERS IN THE BIG EIGHT

Here's my latest take on the Oscar winners in the Big Eight categories.  TFF films/performers in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Nomadland

2) The Trial of the Chicago 7

3) Promising Young Woman

4) Minari

5) Mank

6) Judas and the Black Messiah

7) Sound of Metal

8) The Father

BEST DIRECTION

1) Chloe Zhao/Nomadland

2) David Fincher/Mank

3) Emerald Fennell/Promising Young Woman

4) Lee Isaac Chung/Minari

5) Thomas Vinterberg/Another Round

BEST ACTRESS

1) Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman

2) Frances McDormand/Nomadland

3) Andra Day/The United States vs. Billie Holiday

4) Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

5) Vanessa Kirby/Pieces of a Woman

BEST ACTOR

1) Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

2) Anthony Hopkins/The Father

3) Riz Ahmed/Sound of Metal

4) Steven Yeun/Minari

5) Gary Oldman/Mank

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Maria Bakalova/Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

2) Yuh-jung Youn/Minari

3) Glenn Close/Hillbilly Elegy

4) Olivia Colman/The Father

5) Amanda Seyfried/Mank

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Nomadland

2) The Father

3) Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

4) One Night in Miami

5) The White Tiger

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Promising Young Woman

2) The Trial of the Chicago 7

3) Minari

4) Judas and the Black Messiah

5) Sound of Metal

MORE ON TAVERNIER

A couple of more notes after the passing of Bertrand Tavernier last week:

The Playlist posted a story last week that centered on Martin Scorsese's remembrance of Tavernier.  That story is linked here.

Cannes Festival Thierry Fremaux has also memorialized Tavernier yesterday in Variety.  That is linked here.

Additionally, The Film Stage reports that Tavernier's My Journey Through French Cinema is out on Blu- Ray this week.

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Producers Endorse Nomadland / Cannes Uncertainty

PRODUCERS ENDORSE NOMADLAND

The Producers Guild of America (PGA) named its winners for film and television last night and the win for Best Feature Film went to Chloe Zhao's Nomadland.  Pixar's Soul was named best Animated feature of the year.

A number of outlets suggested that the PGA win may well be the last indicator anyone needs to conclude that Nomadland will be the Best Picture winner when the final announcement is made on Oscar night, April 25th.

However, the PGA doesn't always presage an Oscar win.  In recent years 1917, La La Land and The Big Short won the PGA but then missed winning the big prize on Oscar night (per Indiewire's Anne Thompson).  As a matter of fact, the PGA historically matches with Oscar about 2/3 of the time according to Deadline. com the match has happened 21 times in the organizations 31 years of existence.

I have included links below to a number of sources covering the awards last night:

Variety

The Hollywood Reporter

Indiewire

Deadline

 Awards Daily

CANNES UNCERTAINTY

More reporting suggests that there is a possibility that the Cannes Film Festival may be looking at a move to the fall.  Roger Friedman of ShowBiz 411.  

Friedman's article suggests the potential of an October date and makes sure to mention that that would be post-Telluride, Toronto, Venice and New York though New York's normal run is late Sept. into October.

Friedman also pointedly mentions the chaos that would ensue among the fall fests and for the film makers should Cannes move to October writing:

"I’m thinking Thierry Fremaux must be having a nervous breakdown. The poor man. He didn’t get to have a 2020 Festival. And now this. He could show all the 2020 movies at this point in a sidebar. And no one knows what’s happened to Wes Anderson’s “The French Dispatch.”

Fall movies for festivals are a big question, too. Where will Steven Spielberg unveil West Side Story?"

The entire article is linked here.

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New Gurus Predicting Oscar Winners / Concrete Cowboy Rides to Netflix / Talking Nomadland

 NEW GURUS PREDICITNG OSCAR WINNERS

The latest Gurus of Gold went up at Movie City News on Tuesday after Oscar nominations were announced.  We were tasked with predicting the likely winners in all of the feature film categories.  

As of my Guru ballot on Monday afternoon I have Nomadland winning 4 Oscars on April 25th: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography.  As for its other two nominations, I am currently predicting Carey Mulligan will win Best Actress for Promising Young Woman over Frances McDormand and The Trial of the Chicago 7 winning the Oscar for film editing.

As to the other acting categories, I'm predicting Boseman for Actor, Kaluuya for Supporting Actor and Close for Supporting Actress, though I match up with the overall Gurus picks in all the categories I've mentioned so far except on the Close call.  I'm pretty lonely there with the Gurus collectively picking Yuh-jung Youn from Minari.  I'm not totally out in the cold with the Close prediction.  Mark Johnson/Awards Daily and Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience have also chosen Close.  

My other early predictions (and when applicable, where I diverge from the Guru collective):

Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman

International Feature: Another round

Documentary Feature: Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution (The Gurus have Time)

Production Design: Mank

Costumes: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Animated Feature: Soul

Makeup/Hair: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Score: Soul

Song: Speak Now/One Night in Miami

Sound: Sound of Metal

Visual Effects: Tenet

Biggest locks (having a perfect Gurus score):

Chloe Zhao/Director-Nomadland

Chadwick Boseman/Actor-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Another Round-International Feature

Mank-Production Design

Soul-Best Score

Sound of Metal/Sound

Closest races:

Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman and The Trial of the Chicago7 are close.

Cinematography: Nomadland and Mank look to duke it out.

Editing: Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7 are tight.

Costumes: Ma Rainey, Emma and Mank are all close here.

Makeup/Hair: The battle is between Ma Rainey, Hillbilly Elegy and Mank.

Other semi-close races: Supporting Actress, Animated Feature and Documentary.

The complete Gurus of Gold first take on predicting Oscar winners is linked here.

CONCRETE COWBOY RIDES TO NETFLIX

Netflix has acquired Ricky Staub's Concrete Cowboy starring Idris Elba and Caleb McLaughlin.  The film was a selection of TFF #47.  Netflix has set April 2nd as the release date for the film and has released both a poster (above) and a trailer (below) from YouTube:

TALKING NOMADLAND

Bloomberg recently posted an interview with the original author of Nomadland Jessica Bruder.  That interview is linked here.

Meanwhile, Slashfilm linked a Chloe Zhao interview for the American Film Institute that's up on YouTube.  Here that is:

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Oscar Update: Six Categories / Guild Love for Nomadland, The Truffle Hunters and More / MTFB''s Final Oscar Nom Predix on Sunday!

OSCAR UPDATE: SIX CATEGORIES

NOTE: FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS FROM MTFB WILL DROP ON SUNDAY WITH OSCAR NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED MONDAY MORNING.

I am updating Oscar nomination predictions with days left until the nominees are announced.  As usual, you'll see the last position of the film/performer in parentheses and when the category was last predicted.  TFF films are in Bold.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE (last predicited Feb. 22nd)

1) Crip Camp; a Disability Revolution (1)

2) Time (2)

3) Collective (3)

4) Dick Johnson Is Dead (4)

5) All In: The Fight for Democracy (8)

6) The Truffle Hunters (7)

7) Boys State (5)

8) Welcome to Chechnya (6)

9) My Octopus Teacher (-)

10) Gunda (-)

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE (last predicted Feb. 22nd)

1) Another Round (1)

2) Quo Vadis, Aida (4)

3) Two of Us (3)

4) Collective (2)

5) La Llorona (5)

6) I'm No Longer Here (7)

7) A Sun (6)

8) Night of the Kings (9)

9) Dear Comrades (8)

10) Sun Children (10)

CINEMATOGRAPHY (last predicted Feb. 25th)

1) Nomadland (1)

2) Mank (2)

3) News of the World (3)

4) Tenet (4)

5) Minari (7)

6) Judas and the Black Messiah (6)

7) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (5)

8) First Cow (9)

9) One Night in Miami (8)

10) I'm Thinking of Ending Things (-)

EDITING (last predicted Feb. 25th)

1) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (1)

2) Nomadland (3)

3) Mank (4)

4) News of the World (2)

5) Tenet (5)

6) Sound of Metal (6)

7) The Father (7)

8) Promising Young Woman (-)

9) One Night in Miami (8)

10) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (10)

ORIGINAL SCORE (last predicted on Feb. 25th)

1)  Soul (1)

2) News of the World (2)

3) Mank (3)

4) The Midnight Sky (4)

5) Tenet (5)

6) Minari (6)

7) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (7)

8) Da 5 Bloods (8)

9) The Little Things (9)

10) Blizzard of Souls (10)

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Io Si/The Life Ahead (2)

2) Speak Now/One Night in Miami (1)

3) Hear My Voice/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (4)

4) Husavik/Eurovision Song Contest (5)

5) Fight for You/Judas and the Black Messiah (3)

6) Turntables/All In: The Fight for Democracy (6)

7) Wuhan Flu/Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (8)

8) Never Break/Giving Voice (7)

9) Rain Song/Minari (9)

10) See What You've Done/Belly of the Beast (10)

GUILD LOVE FOR NOMADLAND AND THE TRUFFLE HUNERS (AND MORE)

Both the Directors Guild and the Producers Guild announced their nominees earlier this week and TFF #47 selection Nomadland and Chloe Zhao was named on both lists.  

Additionally, other TFF #47 films were also haled by the DGA.  Florian Zeller was nominated for Best Frist Feature for The Father and Michael Dweck and Gregory Kershaw were nominated for Best Direction of a Feature Documentary.

The Truffle Hunters also was PGA nominated as well.  

The American Society of Cinematographers also named its nominees this week which included Nomadland in its Feature film lineup, The Truffle Hunters and another TFF #47 selection, Gianfranco Rosi's Notturno for Documentary Cinematography.

Coverage is here:

DGA from Variety 

PGA Features from Entertainment Weekly

PGA Docs from Variety

ASC from Awards Daily

REMINDER AGAIN....MTFB'S FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS WILL BE HERE ON SUNDAY

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