MTFB Oscar Take: First Predix for the Seven Remaining Feature Categories /Is Hamnet Still Viable for Best Picture? / Visitations: Hamnet

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: FIRST PREDIX FOR THE SEVEN REMAINING FEATURE CATEGORIES

Over the couple of posts I have loading my picks to win the Oscar 14 Feature Categories. Today we get in the first predictions for the remaining seven features categories. TFF films are in Bold.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Sinners

2) One Battle After Another

3) Train Dreams

4) Marty Supreme

5) Frankenstein

EDITING

1) One Battle After Another

2) F1

3) Sinners

4) Marty Supreme

5) Sentimental Value

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Frankenstein

2) Sinners

3) Hamnet

4) Marty Supreme

5) One Battle After Another

COSTUMES

1) Frankenstein

2) Sinners

3) Hamnet

4) Marty Supreme

5) Avatar: Fire and Ash

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Frankenstein

2) Sinners

3) The Smashing Machine

4) The Ugly Stepsisters

5) Kokuho

SOUND

1) F1

2) Sinners

3) One Battle After Another

4) Sinners

5) Sirat

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: Fire and Ash

2) F1

3) Sinners

4) Marty Supreme

5) Jurassic World Rebirth

Thoughts:

TFF films win six Oscars if these initial predictions are 100% correct.

Frankenstein (3): Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.

Sentimental Value (2): Supporting Actor and International Feature

Hamnet (1): Best Actress.

Overall MTFB currently has the rest of Oscar winners predicted as follows:

One Battle After Another (5): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Editing.

Sinners (4): Casting, Original Screenplay, Score and Cinematography.

K-Pop Demon Hunters (2): Best Animated Feature, Song.

And single wins for:

Marty Supreme: Best Actor.

The Perfect Neighbor: Best Documentary.

F1: Sound.

Avatar: Fire and Ash: Visual Effects.

Tightest categories: Best Picture, Casting, Cinematography, Editing and Costumes.

IS HAMNET STILL VIABLE FOR BEST PICTURE

VISITATIONS: HAMNET

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet from The Wrap.

https://www.thewrap.com/industry-news/awards/chloe-zhao-hamnet-interview-cover-story/

Chloe Zhao with James Cameron for Hamnet from Indiwire.

https://www.indiewire.com/awards/consider-this/watch-james-cameron-chloe-zhao-talk-hamnet-1235179180/

I'm an unabashed fan of Chloe Zhao's Hamnet.  While almost all of the big time Oscar pundits have the race down to a dogfight between Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another and Ryan Coogler's Sinners for the top prize on March 15th (and you can see above that I'm currently predicting OBAA), I still think there might be a path wherein Hamnet emerges with Best Pic on Oscar night. 

And, it turns out, I'm not entirely alone. There are others who have dared suggest that it could happen: Cory Woodruff/For the Win/USA Today.

Come along with me...here be reasons:

1) The Preferential Ballot... Where do voters for OBAA, Sinners and Sentimental Value put Hamnet on their ballots?  A lot of #2's from those films could boost Hamnet's chances.

2) Buckley will get Hamnet on the Board...She's maybe the biggest lock for any of the 24 awards on Oscar night.  And if Hamnet/Zhao/O'Farrell also grab the Best Adapted Screenplay...lookout.

3) BAFTA is coming...I can certainly see Hamnet overperforming on their Home Field.  And as has been pointed out in other quarters, the Brits are the largest "foreign" bloc in the Academy.  Say Hamnet wins Best Film, Outstanding British Film, Actress, Supporting Actor and  Adapted Screenplay on Feb. 22nd...just four days before the final Oscar voting starts...again, lookout.

4) Hamnet's won some serious stuff...Best Film/Drama at the Golden Globes, Toronto's Audience Award and, dare I say it...Hamnet topped MTFB's People's and Pros polls.

VISITATIONS: HAMNET

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet from The Wrap.

https://www.thewrap.com/industry-news/awards/chloe-zhao-hamnet-interview-cover-story/

Chloe Zhao with James Cameron for Hament from Indiewire.

https://www.indiewire.com/awards/consider-this/watch-james-cameron-chloe-zhao-talk-hamnet-1235179180/

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MTFB Oscar Take: Updates to Above the Line Categories / Online Film Critics Nominees / Visitations: Hamnet

 UPDATES TO ABOVE THE LINE CATEGORIES

Here's the latest take on the eight "Above the Line " categories for Oscar nominations that are being announced one week from today.  TFF #52 films are indicated in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (3)

3) Sinners (2)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Frankenstein (6)

6) Sentimental Value (5)

7) It Was Just an Accident (7)

8) Train Dreams (8)

9) The Secret Agent (NR)

10) Bugonia (10)

Others: Wicked: for Good, F1 and Weapons.

 

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)

2) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)

3) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)

4) Guillermo Del Toro/Frankenstein (NR)

5) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Jafar Panhani/It Was Just an Accident, Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme and Kleber Mendanca Filho/The Secret Agent.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (3)

3) Renee Reinsve/Sentimental Value (2)

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)

5) Chase Infiniti/OBAA (5)

Others: Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue , Amanda Seyfreid/The Testament of Ann Lee and Cynthia Erivo/Wicked: For Good.

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)

2) Leonardo DiCaprio/OBAA (2)

3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (5)

5) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (4)

Others: Joel Edgerton/Train Dreams, Jesse Plemons/Bugonia and George Clooney/Jay Kelly

SUPPRORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Amy Madigan/Weapons (2)

3) Ariana Grande/Wicked" For Good (3)

4) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Wunmi Mosaku/Sinners, Regina Hall/One Battle After Another and Odessa A'Zion/Marty Supreme.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (2)

3) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein (5)

4) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (3)

5) Paul Mescal/Hamnet (4)

Others: Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly, Miles Caton/Sinners and DelRoy Lindo/Sinners.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Marty Supreme (3)

3) Sentimental Value (2)

4) It Was Just an Accident (4)

5) Weapon (NR)

Others: Sorry, Baby, Jay Kelly and The Secret Agent.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Frankenstein (5)

5) Bugonia (4)

Others: No Other Choice, Wakeup Dead Man and Nuremburg.

I'll have predictions on Monday for the Shorts categories as well as a look at the closest races.  Then on Wednesday MTFB will have a special post with final predictions in all 24 categories.

ONLINE FILM CRITICS NOMINATIONS

The Online Film Critics association announced their nominees for film excellence for 2025 on Monday.  Here's what happened with films that screened at TFF:

Sentimental Value (8): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Illeaas), Supporting Actress (Fanning), Original Screenplay and Film Not in the English Language.

Hamnet (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design and Costume.

Frankenstein (7): Best Supporting Actor (Elordi), Cinematography, Score, Production Design, Costume, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects.

It Was Just an accident (4): Best Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay and Film Not in the English Language.

The Secret Agent (3): Best Picture, Actor (Moura and Film Not in the English Language.

Bugonia (2): Best Actress (Stone) and Adapted Screenplay.

Single nominations for:

Blue Moon: Best Actor (Hawke)

If I had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

Cover-Up: Best Documentary.

The complete list of the OFCS nominees can be found here at their website.

 

VISITATIONS: HAMNET

Paul Mescal from Variety. 

Paul Mescal from Awards Watch.

Jesse Buckley from People.

Paul Mescal and Chloe Zhao from IndieWire.

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MTFB Oscar Predictions #3: Best Pic, Direction, Lead Acting / European Film Awards Nominations and TFF / Visitations: Zhao, Baumbach, Linklater and Hawke

MTFB OSCAR PREDICTIONS #3: BEST PIC, DIRECTION, LEAD ACTING

MTFB begins its expansion of Oscar nomination predictions today by updating four categories.  I'll update the Supporting Acting and Screenplay categories on Monday and a week from today start to provide predictions in the other 13 feature film categories.

or today and Monday you can see the last predicted position of each film to the right of the title in parentheses.  TFF #52 films/performers are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Sentimental Value (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

6) Wicked: For Good (6)

7) Frankenstein (9)

8) It Was Just an Accident (7)

9) Jay Kelly (8)

10) Train Dreams (NR)

Others: Bugonia, Avatar: Fire and Ice, F1.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)

2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)

3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)

4) Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident (5)

5) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)

Others: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Noah Baumbach/Jay Kelly and Guillermo del Toro/Frankenstein.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rene Reinsve/Sentimental Value (2)

3) Cynthia Enviro/Wicked: For Good (3)

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)

5) Amanda Seyfried/The Testament of Ann Lee (5)

Others: Chase Infiniti/OBAA, Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue, Sidney and Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)

2) Leonardo DiCaprio/OBAA (2)

3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (5)

5) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (4)

Others: George Clooney/Jay Kelly, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

EUROPEAN FILM AWARD NOMINATIONS AND TFF

Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value led the first wave of European Film Awards nominations announced last Tuesday.  Here are the nominations for TFF films:

Sentimental Value: Best European Film, Director, Actress (Reinsve), Actor (Sarsgard), Screenwriter.

It Was Just an Accident: Best European Film, Director, Screenwriter.

La Grazia: Best European Actor (Servillo) and Screenwriter.

Bugonia: Best European Director.  

And from TFF #51: Riefenstahl: Best European Film and Documentary.

The complete rundown of EFA nominations is linked here.

VISITATIONS: ZHAO, BAUMBACH, LINKLATER AND HAWKE

Chloe Zhao on Hamnet (and more) from Vanity Fair.

Noah Baumbach on Jay Kelly from Film Comment.

Noah Baumbach and Ethan Hawke on Blue Moon from Deadline.

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Oscar Predictions Round Two: Best Picture and Direction / Visitations: Del Toro, Isaacs, Stone, Plemons

OSCAR PREDICTIONS ROUND TWO: BEST PICTURE AND DIRECTION

Two weeks ago MTFB began Oscar predictions for 2026 with, of course, an emphasis on TFF #52 contenders.  Today we go back and update the predictions for Best Picture and Direction.  These predictions will include the films current ranking as well as its position from two weeks back.  TFF #52 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Sentimental Value (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

6) Wicked: For Good (9)

7) It Was Just an Accident (8)

8) Jay Kelly (6)

9) Frankenstein (NR)

10) Bugonia (NR)

Others: Train Dreams, Avatar: Fire and Ice, The Secret Agent and A House of Dynamite.

Comment: Big moves up for Wicked: For Good, Frankenstein and Bugonia. Dropping for Jay Kelly and A House of Dynamite.  

Should this list be the actual set of  nominees, TFF would break its record of four BP nominees in a single year with six.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)

2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)

3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)

4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident (5)

Others: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Noah Baumbach/Jay Kelly and Guillermo del Toro/Frankenstein.

VISITATIONS: DEL TORO, ISAAC, STONE, PLEMONS

Guillermo Del Toro and Oscar Isaac for Frankenstein from GQ and YouTube.

Emma Stone, Jesse Plemons, Yorgos Lanthimos and More for Bugonia from Nest Best Picture.

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MTFB'S First Oscar Predictions for 2025-26: Best Picture and Direction / New U.S. Trailer for The Secret Agent / Visitations: Blue Moon

 MTFB'S FIRST OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS FOR 2025-26

Well, we're finally here.  Seven weeks after the conclusion of TFF #52 it's time to start making some predix myself for the coming Oscar Season.  Today we'll roll out Best Picture and Best Direction.  We'll follow up with the Lead Acting categories on Thursday and then next week we'll the Supporting Acting categories and then the Screenplay categories.  We'll keep the focus on these eight "above the Line" categories for a bit before expending to eventually include all categories prior to Oscar nomination morning on January 22, 2026.  

TFF #52 films are Bold.  Here we go...

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another

2) Hamnet

3) Sinners

4) Sentimental Value

5) Marty Supreme

6) Jay Kelly

7) A House of Dynamite

8) It Was Just an Accident

9) Wicked: For Good

10) The Secret Agent

Other Possibles: Bugonia, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and Avatar: Fire and Ice.

Should these prove out to be the top ten it would mean half the nominated field for Best Picture played at TFF 52 which would be new record for TFF films to be BP nominated.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/One Battle After Another

2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet

3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners

4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value

5) Jafar Pahani/It Was Just an Accident

Other Possibles: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Kleber Mendonca Filho/The Secret Agent, Noah Baumbach/Jay Kelly.

NEW U.S. TRAILER FOR THE SECRET AGENT

NEON has released a new trailer for Kebler Mendonca Filho's The Secret Agent.  Here that is from YouTube:

VISITATIONS: BLUE MOON

Ethan Hawke and Richard Linklater for Blue Moon from Awards Radar.

Bobby Canavale on Blue Moon from Awards Radar.

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Dates Tell a Story / Cannes Posters for 2025

DATES TELL A STORY

Paul Mescal and Jesse Buckley in Chloe Zhao's Hamnet (via World of Reel)

A couple of films that I have been attention to had their release dates announced the past few days and each announcement tells us a least a little bit about possible Telluride ramifications.

Focus Features announced that Chloe Zhao's Hamnet (starring Paul Mescal and Jesse Buckley) will have a limited release on Nov. 27th followed by a nationwide expansion on Dec. 12th. That report is per Indiewire and is linked here.  Those dates keep open the chance that Zhao returns to Telluride.  It also allows the possibility of Venice, Toronto, New York and/or London.

Zhao's The Rider played T-ride in 2017.  Her Oscar winning Nomadland would have played the 47th TFF but that went away with Covid.  However, the fest was instrumental in arranging a Drive-In screening in Los Angeles.  So I can totally see Hamnet making an appearance at TFF #52.

Nomadland won three Oscars including Best Picture, Actress and Direction.

Meanwhile, Focus also announced that Ethan Coen's Honey Don't, which will world premiere at Cannes next month, will be released in the U.S. on August 22nd, thus taking it off the table for a spot at TFF#52.  I mentioned Honey Don't last week and indicated that it was an unlikely candidate for T-ride and this reporting from The Playlist validates that thinking.

CANNES POSTERS FOR 2025

I posted one of them in last Thursday's edition of MTFB.  The two posters celebrate Claude Lelouch's A Man and a Women.

Here they are:

The 78th Cannes Film Festival opens on May 13th.

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TFF Oscar Streak Continues / 2021 Oscar Rundown

 TFF OSCAR STREAK CONTINUES

The Telluride Film Festival didn't happen for the 2020-21 Oscar season and still managed to extend its streak of having scheduled and screened (at a drive-in) the eventual Best Picture Oscar winner.  11 of the last 13 Oscar winning Best Pictures screened as a part of the festival.  The only two exceptions have been The Hurt Locker for 2009 and Green Book for 2018.

Here's the run:

2008: Slumdog Millionaire

2010: The King's Speech

2011: The Artist

2012: Argo

2013: 12 Years a Slave

2014: Birdman

2015: Spotlight

2016: Moonlight

2017: The Shape of Water

2019: Parasite

2020: Nomadland

2021 OSCAR RUNDOWN

Here are the winners of the 2021 Academy Awards:

Best Picture: Nomadland. 

Best Direction: Chloe Zhao/Nomadland,

Best Actress: Frances McDormand/Nomadland

Best Actor: Anthony Hopkins/The Father.

Best Supporting Actress: Yuh-jung Youn/Minari.  

Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah.

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Father.

Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman.

Best International Feature: Another Round. 

Best Documentary Feature: My Octopus Teacher.

Best Animated Feature: Soul. 

Best Original Score: Soul. 

Best Original Song: Fight for You/Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Cinematography: Mank.

Best Editing: Sound of Metal.

Best Production Design: Mank. 

Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. 

Best Makeup/Hair: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.

Best Sound: Sound of Metal. 

Best Visual Effects: Tenet. 

Best Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love You. 

Best Live Action Short: Two Distant Strangers.  

Best Documentary Short: Colette

Nomadland led the way with three wins- Best Picture, Best Direction, Best Actress-on a night when The Academy really did share the wealth.  Its wins along with the two for The Father- Best Actor and  Best Adapted Screenplay-gave TFF #47 a respectable total of five Oscars.

The Father' double win was part of a substantial list of two win films on the night.

The rundown of wins by film:

Nomadland- 3- Picture, Direction, Actress.

The Father- 2- Actor, Adapted Screenplay

Soul- 2- Animated Feature, Score

Judas and the Black Messiah- 2- Supporting Actor, Song

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom- 2- Costumes, Makeup/Hair

Sound of Metal- 2- Editing, Sound

Mank- 2- Production Design, Cinematography

Single feature film wins for: Minari, Promising Young Woman, Another Round, My Octopus Teacher and Tenet.

On a personal level:

I correctly predicted 16 of the 23 categories with an additional four statues going to films that I listed as Upset Specials. That's just shy of 70% which is under my average (79.6%) for the past several years.

My biggest surprise of the evening was McDormand winning Best Actress.  I really did not believe she's win again so soon after her Three Billboards win.

Now we gear up with some seriousness of purpose working under the assumption the Telluride happens in 19 weeks to suss out what its lineup looks will look like.

Back to it!

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MTFB'S FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR TONIGHT

 FINAL OSCAR PREDICITONS FOR TONIGHT

Best Picture: Nomadland.  Upset Special: The Trial of the Chicago 7.

Best Direction: Chloe Zhao/Nomadland,  Upset Special: Emerald Fennell/Promising Young Woman.

Best Actress: Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman.  Upset Special: Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.

Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.  Upset Special: Anthony Hopkins/The Father.

Best Supporting Actress: Yuh-jung Youn/Minari.  Upset Special: Maria Bakalova/Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.

Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah.  Upset Special: Sacha Baron Cohen/The Trial of the Chicago 7.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland.  Upset Special: The Father.

Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman.  Upset Special: The Trial of the Chicago 7.

Best International Feature: Another Round. Upset Special: Quo Vadis Aida.

Best Documentary Feature: My Octopus Teacher,. Upset Special: Crip Camp.

Best Animated Feature: Soul.  Upset Special: Wolfwalkers.

Best Original Score: Soul.  Upset Special: Mank.

Best Original Song: Speak Now/One Night in Miami.  Upset Special: Io Si/The Life Ahead.

Best Cinematography: Nomadland.  Upset Special: Mank.

Best Editing: The Trial of the Chicago 7.  Upset Special: Sound of Metal.

Best Production Design: Mank.  Upset Special: News of the World.

Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.  Upset Special: Emma.

Best Makeup/Hair: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.  Upset Special: Hillbilly Elegey

Best Sound: Sound of Metal.  Upset Special: News of the World.

Best Visual Effects: Tenet.  Upset Special: The Midnight Sky.

Best Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love You.  Upset Special: Burrow.

Best Live Action Short: Two Distant Strangers.  Upset Special:  Feeling Through.

Best Documentary Short: A Concerto Is a Conversation.  Upset Special: A Love Song for Latasha

TFF Stats:

Nomadland nominated for six Oscars: Picture, Director, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Editing.  I am predicting it to win four: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography.

The Father nominated for six Oscars: Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Editing and Production Design.  I have predicted that it wins no Oscars tonight BUT...Hopkins is the Upset Special for Best Actor and his buzz has been growing for the past couple of weeks.  The Father is also the Upset Special for Adapted Screenplay.  

The only other TFF #47 is the Live Action Short nominee The Letter Room.

The most Oscars that TFF #47 films could snag in total tonight is 10.

The categories that feel to me like the ones that are going to be Oscar poll deciders are: Best Actress, the two screenplay categories,  Documentary, Song and, as always, the Shorts categories.

OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

Here are links to a number of Oscarologists for tonight's winners:

Sasha Stone/ Awards Daily

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Clayton Davis/Variety

Mark Johnson/Good as Gold/Awards Daily.

Eric Kohn and Anne Thompson/Indiewire (Screen Talk podcast)

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch

Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience 

Steve Pond/The Wrap

Joey Magidson/Awards Radar

Matt Neglia (and crew)/Next Best Picture

Jason Osiason/Fantastic Film Fans

Gregory Ellwood/The Playlist

And of course, for the last time this Oscar season, the link to the final collective predictions of The Gurus of Gold at Movie City News.

I'll have some post Oscar thoughts in tomorrow's regularly scheduled edition of MTFB.

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Oscar Winners Predix #7: Picture, Director and Lead Acting Categories / Last Gurus of Gold for This Season / New Cousins Project-Could It Play TFF #48?

 OSCAR WINNERS PREDIX #7- PICTURE, DIRECTOR, LEAD ACTING CATEGORIES

Here's my next to last attempt to predict this year's Academy Awards winners.  THE FINAL MTFB OSCAR PICKS will go up on Sunday morning.  As always, TFF participants are indicated in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Nomadland

2) The Trial of the Chicago 7

3) Promising Young Woman

4) Minari

5) Judas and the Black Messiah

6) Mank

7) Sound of Metal

8) The Father

BEST DIRECTION

1) Chloe Zhao/Nomadland

2) Emerald Ferrell/Promising Young Woman

3) David Fincher/Mank

4) Lee Issac Chung/Minari

5) Thomas Vinterberg/Another Round

BEST ACTRESS

1) Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman

2) Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

3) Andra Day/The United States vs. Billie Holiday

4) Frances McDormand/Nomadland

5) Vanessa Kirby/Pieces of a Woman

BEST ACTOR

1) Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

2) Anthony Hopkins/The Father

3) Riz Ahmed/Sound of Metal

4) Steven Yeun/Minari

5) Gary Oldman/Mank

LAST GURUS OF GOLD FOR THIS SEASON 

The last Gurus of gold for this Oscar season is expected to drop at Movie City News in the next day or two.  You can expect to see collected takes from all of the Gurus for all 23 Oscar categories including the Short Film categories.

Other Gurus include Sasha Stone of Awards Daily, Peter Howell of the Toronto Star, Gregory Ellwood of The Playlist, Dave Karger of Turner Classic Movies and Steve Pond of The Wrap among others.

Bit of a Disclaimer: My predictions you see for the Gurus could have changed by Sunday morning!

NEW COUSINS PROJECT-COULD IT PLAY TFF #48?

Variety has a new interview out with film maker Mark Cousins that's focused on his new film The Story of Looking.  The article reveals that the film will be screened as a work in progress at the Swedish Visions du Real Festival.

The screening suggests that the new project could and likely will be available come Labor Day weekend.  Cousins has had an extensive track record at Telluride over the last several years with screenings of The Story of Film: An Odyssey, A Story of Children and Film and What Is This Film Called Love?

So, don't be surprised when the Telluride #48 lineup is announced if it includes The Story of Looking. 

The complete Variety article is linked here.

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Oscar Winners Predix #4: Lead Acting, Score, Song and Sound / DGA Awards Some Telluride Players / Speaking of Directors / BAFTA Winners

 OSCAR PREDIX #4: LEADING ACTOR, SCORE, SONG AND SOUND

I'm back predicting the winners of this year's Oscars with less than two weeks left until the awards are passed out.  Today I am updating the lead acting categories as well as predicting the winners for Score, Song and Sound for the first time since nominations were announced.  As always TFF #47 film are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman

2) Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

3) Frances McDormand/Nomadland

4) Andra Day/The United States vs. Billie Holiday

5) Vanessa Kirby/Pieces of a Woman

Note: This race is really tight, so it seems, with Viola Davis and Carey Mulligan neck and neck and just a hair in front of Frances McDormand and Andra Day.  I have Mulligan in the top spot but that could change by Oscar morning when I will be posting my final predictions in all 23 categories.

BEST ACTOR

1) Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

2) Anthony Hopkins/The Father

3) Riz Ahmed/Sound of Metal

4) Steven Yeun/Minari

5) Gary Oldman/Mank

Note: Boseman stills seems to be the easy choice here but Hopkins BAFTA win yesterday does give one a little bit of a pause.

BEST SCORE

1) Soul

2) Mank

3) Minari

4) News of the World

5) Da 5 Bloods

Note: Soul is a prohibitive favorite.

BEST SONG

1) Speak Now/One Night in Miami

2) Io Si (Seen)/The Life Ahead

3) Fight for You/Judas and the Black Messiah

4) Husavik/Eurovision 

5) Hear My Voice/The Trial of the Chicago 7

Note: A fairly competitive category with Speak Now and Io Si (Seen) very close and a win for either Fight for You not out of the question.

BEST SOUND

1) Sound of Metal

2) News of the World

3) Mank

4) Soul

5) Greyhound

Note: Sound of Metal is a prohibitive favorite.

THE DIRECTORS GUILD AWARDS SOME TELLURIDE PLAYERS

The Directors Guild of America named their winners for excellence for 2020/21 and a couple of the big awards went to directors who would have been in Telluride last September had the fest been able to occur.

Chloe Zhao was named Best Director for a feature film for Nomadland and Michael and Gregory Kershaw were named Best Director for The Truffle Hunters.  Both films were listed by the Telluride Film Festival as films that would have played at the 47th edition.

The complete list of winners can be found here at the DGA website.

SPEAKING OF DIRECTORS

Jane Campion (via Variety)

As I was writing about the DGA results, I saw that Variety's Clayton Davis had re-posted an article named "Directors Whose Work We're Excited to See in 2021".  So, here's the f=directors from that list that have been to Telluride before and the projects that we expect to appear before the end of the year:

Andrea Arnold/Cow

Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog

Joel Coen/The Tragedy of MacBeth

Guillermo Del Toro/Nightmare Alley

Tom McCarthy/Stillwater

Denis Villenueve/Dune

Chloe Zhao/The Eternals

The complete list and more is linked here.

BAFTA WINNERS

Nomadland had a really fine night last night at the awards ceremony for the British Academy of Television Arts and Sciences winning four of the organizations Golden Masks.

Chloe Zhao's examination of the wanderers that make up a large community of R.V. dwellers in the American west won Best Picture as well Zhao for Best Director, Frances McDormand for Best Actress and Best Cinematography.

Florian Zeller's The Father also pulled off a major upset and a minor upset.  Anthony Hopkins upset Chadwick Boseman in the Best Actor category while Zeller and Christopher Hampton won Best Adapted Screenplay over Zhao for her Nomadland screenplay.

You can find the complete listing of BAFTA winners here from The Hollywood Reporter.

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Oscar Winners Predix #3: Picture and More / Mainstream Trailer / More Cannes Date Speculation

 OSCAR WINNERS PREDIX #3: PICTURE AND MORE

I'm back predicting the winners of this year's Oscars with 17 days left until the awards are passed out.  Today I am updating Best Picture and Director categories as well as predicting the winners for Cinematography, Film Editing and Production Design for the first time since nominations were announced.  As always TFF #47 film are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Nomadland

2) Promising Young Woman

3) The Trial of the Chicago 7

4) Minari

5) Judas and the Black Messiah

6) Mank

7) Sound of Metal

8) The Father

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Chloe Zhao/Nomadland

2) Emerald Fennell/Promising Young Woman

3) David Fincher/Mank

4) Lee Isaac Chung/Minari

5) Thomas Vinterberg/Another Round

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Nomadland

2) Mank

3) News of the world

4) The Trial of the Chicago 7

5) Judas and the Black Messiah

BEST FILM EDITING

1) Sound of Metal

2) The Trial of the Chicago 7

3) Nomadland

4) Promising Young Woman

5) The Father

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Mank

2) News of the World

3) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

4) The Father

5) Tenet

MAINSTREAM TRAILER 

Goa Coppola's Mainstream was to have been a film that would have screened ata TFF #47 had it happened.  The film stars Andrew Garfield and Maya Hawke and has been dated for release on May 7th.  IFC, which is distributing the film, dropped a new trailer for the film earlier this week.  That trailer is here via YouTube:

MORE CANNES DATE SPECULATION

Roger Friedman's ShowBiz411 wrote yesterday that:

"I’ve already reported that the Film Festival has been eyeing a move to October. No one would be against that. It would put the festival in closer proximity to Oscar buzz."

That continues to fan the flames of the possibility of a Cannes fall festival that could turn the entire film fest season on its ear.

The complete Friedman article is linked here.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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