MTFB'S Final Oscar Nomination Predictions for All 24 Categories / The Experts Weigh In

MTFB's Final Oscar Nomination Predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (3)

3) Sinners (2)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Frankenstein (6)

6) Sentimental Value (5)

7) It Was Just an Accident (7)

8) Train Dreams (8)

9) The Secret Agent (NR)

10) Bugonia (10)

Others: F1, Wicked: for Good and Weapons.

 

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)

2) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (2)

3) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (3)

4) Guillermo Del Toro/Frankenstein (4)

5) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Jafar Panhani/It Was Just an Accident, Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme and Kleber Mendanca Filho/The Secret Agent.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (2)

3) Renee Reinsve/Sentimental Value (3)

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)

5) Chase Infiniti/OBAA (5)

Others: Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue , Amanda Seyfreid/The Testament of Ann Lee and Cynthia Erivo/Wicked: For Good.

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)

2) Leonardo DiCaprio/OBAA (2)

3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (4)

5) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (5)

Others: Joel Edgerton/Train Dreams, Jesse Plemons/Bugonia and George Clooney/Jay Kelly

SUPPRORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Amy Madigan/Weapons (2)

3) Ariana Grande/Wicked" For Good (3)

4) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Wunmi Mosaku/Sinners, Regina Hall/One Battle After Another and Odessa A'Zion/Marty Supreme.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (2)

3) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein (3)

4) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (4)

5) Paul Mescal/Hamnet (5)

Others: Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly, Miles Caton/Sinners and DelRoy Lindo/Sinners.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Marty Supreme (2)

3) Sentimental Value (3)

4) It Was Just an Accident (4)

5) Weapon (5)

Others: Sorry, Baby, Jay Kelly and The Secret Agent.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Frankenstein (4)

5) Bugonia (5)

Others: No Other Choice, Wakeup Dead Man and Nuremburg.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Sentimental Value (Norway) (1)

2) It Was Just an Accident (France) (2)

3) The Secret Agent (Brazil) (3)

4) Sirat (4)

5) No Other Choice (South Korea) (5)

Others: The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia), Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan) and Kukuho (Japan).

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) The Perfect Neighbor (1)

2) 2000 Meters to Andriivka (2)

3) Cover-Up (3)

4) The Alabama Solution (4)

5) Apocalypse in the Tropics (*TFF #51) (NR)

Others: Come See Me in the Good Light, My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 and Mr. Nobody Against Putin.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) Zootopia 2 (2)

3) Arco (3)

4) Little Amelie or the Character of Rain (4)

5) Elio (5)

Others: In Your Dreams, Demon Slayer, The Magnificent Life.

BEST CASTING

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) Hamnet (4)

5) Wicked: For Good (4)

Others: Frankenstein, Sentimental Value and Weapons.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle after Another (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Train Dreams (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

Others: F1, Marty Supreme and Bugonia.

BEST EDITING

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) F1 (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Hamnet (5)

Others: Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident and Sentimental Value.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Frankenstein (4)

5) Train Dreams (5)

Others: F1, Marty Supreme and Sirat.

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Golden/K Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) I Lied to You/Sinners (2)

3) Dear Me/Diane Warren: Relentless (3)

4) Last Time (I Seen the Sun)/Sinners (4)

5) Train Dreams/Train Dreams (5)

Others: The Girl in the Bubble/Wicked: For Good, Dream as One/Avatar: Fire and Ash.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Wicked: For Good (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

Others: Avatar: Fire and Ash, One Battle After Another and The Fantastic Four: First Steps.

COSTUME DESIGN

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Wicked: For Good (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Hamnet (4)

5) Hedda (5)

Others: The Testament of Ann Lee, Marty Supreme and Kiss of the Spiderman.

MAKEUP AND HAIR

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Wicked: For Good (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) The Smashing Machine (4)

5) Kokuho (5)

Others: One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme and Nuremburg.

SOUND DESIGN

1) F1 (2)

2) Sinners (1)

3) One Battle After Another (3)

4) Avatar: Fire and Ash (NR)

5) Wicked: For Good (4)

Others: Sirat, Frankenstein and Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: Fire and Ash (1)

2) F1 (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Frankenstein (4)

5) Superman (5)

Others: Wicked: For Good, Jurassic World Rebirth and The Lost Bus.

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Eiru

2) Butterfly

3) Playing God

4) Snow Bear

5) Cardboard

Others: The Girl Who Cried Pearls, Hurikan, The Quinta's Ghost and The Shyness of Trees.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) All the Empty Rooms

2) The Devil Is Busy

3) Armed With Only a Camera

4) All the Walls Came Down

5) Chasing Time

Others: Classroom 4, We Were the Scenery and Perfectly a Strangeness.

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Two People Exchanging Saliva

2) Rock, Paper, Scissors

3) The Singers

4) Extremist

5) Jane Austen's Period Drama

Others: Beyond Silence, Pantyhose and The Boy with White Skin.

THE EXPERTS WEIGH IN

Here's a rundown of how some Oscar experts are predicting nominations for Telluride films:

***VARIETY

Hamnet (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Production Design, Costumes, Editing and Score.

Frankenstein (10): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Sound and Score.

Sentimental Value (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas), Original Screenplay, International Feature.

Bugonia (4): Best Picture, Actress (Stone), Adapted Screenplay and Production Design.

The Secret Agent (4): Best Picture, Actor (Moura), Casting and International Feature.

Blue Moon (2) Best Actor (Hawke) and Original Screenplay.

Single nominations:

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

It Was Just and Accident: Best International Feature.

All the Empty Rooms: Best Documentary Short.

All the Walls Came Down: Best Documentary Short.

Extremist: Best Live Action Short.

Variety has 11 TFF films earning 42 nominations.

Here's the link to Variety's complete list of Oscar nomination predictions.

***INDIEWIRE

Frankenstein (12): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Score, Production Design, Sound and Visual Effects.

Hamnet (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Costumes, Editing, Score and Production Design.

Sentimental Value (5): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas), Original Screenplay, International Feature.

Bugonia (3): Best Picture, Actress (Stone) and Adapted Screenplay.

The Secret Agent (3): Best Picture, Actor (Moura) and International Feature.

It Was Just an Accident (2): Best International Feature and Original Screenplay.

Single nominations for:

Blue Moon: Best Actor (Hawke).

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

Cover-Up: Best Documentary.

All the Empty rooms: Best Documentary Short.

All the Walls Came Down: Best Documentary Short.

Extremist: Best Live Action Short.

Indiewire has 11 TFF films with 41 nominations.

The complete list of Indiewire's Final Predictions is here.

***NEXT BEST PICTURE

Hamnet (11): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Editing, Cinematography, Costumes, Production Design and Score.

Frankenstein (10): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Score, Production Design, Sound and Visual Effects.

Sentimental Value (8): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas),, Supporting Actor (Skarsgard) Original Screenplay, Casting and International Feature.

It Was Just an Accident (4): Best Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay, International Feature.

Bugonia (3): Best Picture, Actress (Stone)and Adapted Screenplay.

The Secret Agent (3): Best Picture, Actor (Moura) and International Feature.

Single nominations for:

Blue Moon: Best Actor (Hawke).

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

Apocalypse in the Tropics: Best Documentary (TFF #51)

All the Empty Rooms: Best Documentary Short.

All the Walls Came Down: Best Documentary Short.

NBP has 11 TFF films earning 44 nominations.

https://nextbestpicture.com/oscar-predictions-best-picture/

***THE CONTENDING

Hamnet (11): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Editing, Cinematography, Costumes, Production Design and Score.

Frankenstein (10): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Score, Production Design, Sound and Visual Effects.

Sentimental Value (7): Best Picture, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas), Original Screenplay, Casting and International Feature.

The Secret Agent (4): Best Picture, Actor (Moura), Original Screenplay and International Feature.

It Was Just an Accident (4): Best Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay and International Feature.

Bugonia (3): Best Picture, Actress (Stone) and Adapted Screenplay.

Single nominations for:

Blue Moon: Best Actor (Hawke).

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

Cover-Up: Best Documentary.

All the Empty Rooms: Best Documentary Short.

All the Walls Came Down: Best Documentary Short.

The Contending has 11 TFF films earning 44 nominations.

The complete list of The Contending's predictions is here.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Supporting Acting and Screenplays #5 / Visitations: Maggie O'Farrell (author of Hamnet)

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SUPPORTING ACTING AND SCREENPLAYS

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!

Here's MTFB's fifth take on the Oscar races for the Supporting acting and Screenplay categories.  A film/performers previous rank is listed to the right in parentheses.  TFF #52 films are in Bold.

SUPPRORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Amy Madigan/Weapons (3)

3) Ariana Grande/Wicked" For Good (2)

4) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (5)

5) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (4)

Others: Wunmi Mosaku/Sinners, Regina Hall/One Battle After Another and Odessa A'Zion/Marty Supreme.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (4)

3) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (2)

4) Paul Mescal/Hamnet (3)

5) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein (5) 

Others: Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly, DelRoy Lindo/Sinners and Adam Scott/ Blue Moon.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Sentimental Value (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) It Was Just an Accident (4)

5) Jay Kelly (5)

Others: Sorry, Baby, The Secret Agent, Weapons and Blue Moon.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) One Battle After Another (2)

2) Hamnet (1)

3) Train Dreams (4)

4) Bugonia (3)

4) Train Dreams (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

Others: No Other Choice, Wakeup Dead man and Nuremburg.

VISITATIONS: MAGGIE O'FARRELL

Maggie O'Farrell for Hamnet from The Playlist.

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MTFB Oscar Take: Updated Predictions for Best Picture, Direction and Lead Acting / Visitations: Sentimental Value and Pillion

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: UPDATES PREDICTIONS FOR BEST PICTURE, DIRECTION AND LEAD ACTING

Here's the fifth set of predictions for the four major categories.  TFF #52 predicted nominees are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Sinners (3)

3) Hamnet (2)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Sentimental Value (5)

6) Frankenstein (6)

7) It Was Just an Accident (7)

8) Train Dreams (10)

9) Wicked: For Good (9)

10) Bugonia (NR)

Others: The Secret Agent, Avatar: Fire and Ice, and F1.

 

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)

2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)

3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)

4) Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident (4)

5) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Guillermo del Toro/Frankenstein, Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme and Kleber Mendanca Filho/The Secret Agent.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rene Reinsve/Sentimental Value (2)

3) Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (NR)

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (5)

5) Chase Infiniti/OBAA (NR)

Others: Cynthia Erivo/Wicked: For Good, Amanda Seyfreid/The Testament of Ann Lee and Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue.

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)

2) Leonardo DiCaprio/OBAA (2)

3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (5)

5) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (4)

Others: Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), George Clooney/Jay Kelly and  Jesse Plemons/Bugonia.

This set of predictions suggests that five TFF #52 films will be nominated for Best Picture which would be an all time record for films from TFF.

VISITATIONS

 

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value from Pop Culture Confidential.

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value from Pop Culture Confidential.

Henry Melling for Pillion from Gold Derby.

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MTFB Oscar Take: Second Predictions for International, Documentary and Animated Features and Casting / New York Film Critics Online Announce 2025 Nominees / Visitations

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: SECOND PREDICTIONS FOR INTERNATIONAL, DOCUMENTARY AND ANIMATED FEATURES AND CASTING

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Sentimental Value (Norway) (1)

2) It Was Just an Accident (France) (2)

3) The Secret Agent (Brazil) (3)

4) No Other Choice (South Korea) (4)

5) Sirat (Spain) (NR)

Others: The Voice of hind Rajab, Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan) and 2000 Meters to Andriivka.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) The Perfect Neighbor (1)

2) 2000 Meters to Andriivka (2)

3) Apocalypse in the Tropics (TFF #51) (3)

4) Cover-Up (5)

5) The Alabama Solution (4)

Others: Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, Orwell: 2+2=5,  and Come See Me in the Good Light.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) Zootopia 2 (3)

3) Arco (2)

4) Little Amelie or the Character of Rain (NR)

5) Elio (4)

Others: In Your Dreams, The Magnificent Life, Scarlet.

BEST CASTING

1) Sinners (2)

2) One Battle After Another (1)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) Hamnet (5)

5) Wicked: For Good (4)

Others: Jay Kelly, Wake Up Dead Man and Nouvelle Vague.

 NEW YORK CRITICS ONLINE ANNOUNCE 2025 NOMINEES

13 Telluride #52 films earned 41 nominations this past week from The New York Film Critics Online.  Hamnet and Sentimental lead the way for TFF films with each film grabbing 10 nominations.  Here's the list:

Hamnet (10): Best Picture, Direction, Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actor (X2), Ensemble, Use of Music, Cinematography and Breakthrough Performance.

Sentimental Value (10): Best Picture, Direction, Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actress (X2), Supporting Actor, Ensemble, Breakthrough Performance and International Feature.

It was Just an Accident (4): Best Picture, Direction, Ensemble and International Feature.

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (3): Best Picture, Screenplay and Actress.

Bugonia (3): Best Screenplay, Actress and Actor.

The Secret Agent (2): Best Actor and International Feature.

Frankenstein (2): Best Supporting Actor and Cinematography.

Pillion (2): Best Supporting Actor and Debut Director.

Blue Moon (1): Best Actor.

Jay Kelly (1): Best Supporting Actor.

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (1): Best Use of Music.

Urchin (1): Best Debut Director.

Cover-Up (1): Best Documentary.

VISITATIONS

The Making of Frankenstein from The Hollywood Reporter.

Noah Baumbach on Jay Kelly and More from The Hollywood Reporter.

The Jacobi Brothers on Hamnet from Awards Watch.

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MTFB Oscar Take: Supporting Acting and Screenplays #4

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: SUPPORTING ACTING AND SCREENPLAYS #4

Here are the updated predictions for the Supporting Acting and Screenplay categories.  TFF #52 films and performers are in Bold.  A film's previous ranking is to the right of the title in parentheses.

SUPPRORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (2)

2) Ariana Grande/Wicked: For Good (1)

3) Amy Madigan/Weapons (3)

4) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Regina Hall/One Battle After Another, Wunmi Mosaku/Sinners and Gwyneth Paltrow/Marty Supreme.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (2)

3) Paul Mescal/Hamnet 

4) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (5)

5) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein (NR) 

Others: Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly, DelRoy Lindo/Sinners and William H. Macy/Train Dreams.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Sentimental Value (2)

3) Marty Supreme (NR)

4) It Was Just an Accident (5)

5) Jay Kelly (4)

Others: The Secret Agent, Weapons and The House of Dynamite.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Hamnet (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Bugonia (3)

4) Train Dreams (4)

5) Frankenstein (NR)

Others: Wake Up Dead Man, No Other Choice and Nuremburg.

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MTFB Oscar Take: Best Picture, Direction and Lead Acting / More of the Deluge: Golden Globes, L.A. Film Critics, Critic's Choice and The American Film Institute / La Grazia Trailer

MTFB OSCAR TAKE:  BEST PICTURE, DIRECTION AND LEAD ACTING #4

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Marty Supreme (5)

5) Sentimental Value (4)

6) Frankenstein (7)

7) It Was Just an Accident (8)

8) Jay Kelly (9)

9) Wicked: For Good (6)

10) Train Dreams (10)

Others: Avatar: Fire and Ice, Bugonia and The Secret Agent.

 

Notes: Wicked: for Good takes a substantial drop.  The Frankenstein charge continues.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)

2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)

3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)

4) Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident (4)

5) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Guillermo del Toro/Frankenstein and Park Chan-wook/No Other Choice.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rene Reinsve/Sentimental Value (2)

3) Cynthia Enviro/Wicked: For Good (3)

4) Amanda Seyfried/The Testament of Ann Lee (5)

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)

Others: Chase Infiniti/OBAA, Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You and Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue.

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)

2) Leonardo DiCaprio/OBAA (2)

3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (5)

5) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (4)

Others: Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), George Clooney/Jay Kelly and  Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

MORE OF THE DELUGE

Critics and Film Organizations continued these past few days with their lists of "Best Ofs" and/or nominations. 

GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS

The Golden Globe nominations were announced this morning.  TFF #52 films did well earning a collective 36 nominations.  One Battle After Another led all films with nine nominations..  Here's the rundown of TFF #52 nominees:

Sentimental Value (8): Best Picture/Drama, Non-English Language Film, Actress/Drama, Supporting Actress X 2, Supporting actor, Direction, Screenplay.

Hamnet (6): Best Picture/Drama, Actress/Drama. Supporting Actor, Director, Screenplay and Score.

Frankenstein (5): best Picture/Drama, Actor/Drama, Supporting Actor, Director, Score.

It Was Just an Accident (4): Best Picture/Drama, Non-English Language Film, Director, Screenplay.

The Secret Agent (3): Best Picture/Drama, Non-English Language Film, Actor/Drama

Bugonia (3): Best Picture/Musical or Comedy, Actress/Musical or Comedy, Actor Musical or Comedy.

Blue Moon (2): Best Picture/Musical or Comedy, Actor/Musical or Comedy.

Jay Kelly (2): Best Actor/Musical or Comedy, Supporting Actor.

Springsteen; Deliver Me from Nowhere (1): Best Actor/Musical or Comedy.

If I had Legs Id' Kick You (1): Best Actress/Musical or Comedy.

Nouvelle Vague (1): Best Picture/Musical or Comedy.

The complete Golden Globes list of nominees is here.

LOS ANGELES FILM CRITICS

The L.A. Film Critics' Association named their best films in a number of categories.  Six TFF #52 films earned Best Of or Runner-up Status.  They were:

The Secret Agent: Best Film/Runner-up, Best Non English-Language Film, Lead Performance/Runner-up.

Blue Moon: Best Lead Performance, Supporting actor/Runner-up.

Sentimental Value: Best Supporting Performance, Supporting Performance/Runner-up.

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Lead Performance.

It Was Just an Accident; Best Screenplay.

Frankenstein; Production Design/Runner-up.

CRITICS' CHOICE NOMINATIONS

Sinners lead all films with 17 total CCA nominations followed by One Battle After Another with 14.  TFF#52 films held their own though with both Hamnet and Frankenstein grabbing 11 nominations (the third highest total). TFF #52 films earned a total of 41 nominations.

Here's the TFF #52 breakdown:

HAMNET (Focus Features) – 11

Best Picture

Best Actress – Jessie Buckley

Best Supporting Actor – Paul Mescal

Best Young Actor / Actress – Jacobi Jupe

Best Director – Chloé Zhao

Best Adapted Screenplay – Chloé Zhao, Maggie O’Farrell

Best Casting and Ensemble – Nina Gold

Best Cinematography – Łukasz Żal

Best Production Design – Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton

Best Costume Design – Malgosia Turzanska

Best Score – Max Richter

FRANKENSTEIN (Netflix) – 11

Best Picture

Best Supporting Actor – Jacob Elordi

Best Director – Guillermo del Toro

Best Adapted Screenplay – Guillermo del Toro

Best Cinematography – Dan Laustsen

Best Production Design – Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau

Best Costume Design – Kate Hawley

Best Hair and Makeup – Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, Cliona Furey

Best Visual Effects – Dennis Berardi, Ayo Burgess, Ivan Busquets, José Granell

Best Score – Alexandre Desplat

Best Sound – Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern, Greg Chapman

SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Neon) – 7

Best Picture

Best Actress – Renate Reinsve

Best Supporting Actor – Stellan Skarsgård

Best Supporting Actress – Elle Fanning

Best Supporting Actress – Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas

Best Director – Joachim Trier

Best Original Screenplay – Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier

JAY KELLY (Netflix) – 4

Best Picture

Best Supporting Actor – Adam Sandler

Best Original Screenplay – Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer

Best Casting and Ensemble – Douglas Aibel, Nina Gold

BUGONIA (Focus Features) – 3

Best Picture

Best Actress – Emma Stone

Best Adapted Screenplay – Will Tracy

THE SECRET AGENT (Neon) – 2

Best Actor – Wagner Moura

Best Foreign Language Film

BLUE MOON (Sony Pictures Classics) – 1

Best Actor – Ethan Hawke

IF I HAD LEGS I’D KICK YOU (A24) – 1

Best Actress – Rose Byrne

IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Neon) – 1

Best Foreign Language Film

The complete rundown of nominations for the CCA is linked here.

AMERICAN FILM INSTUTUTE TOP TEN FILMS (PLUS)

From the American Film Institute's Top Ten list plus one more superlative (TFF #52 films in Bold):

AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH

BUGONIA

FRANKENSTEIN

HAMNET

JAY KELLY

MARTY SUPREME

ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

SINNERS

TRAIN DREAMS

WICKED: FOR GOOD

AFI SPECIAL AWARD

IT WAS JUST AN ACCCIDENT

Here's the complete announcement from the AFI.

LA GRAZIA TRAILER 

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Quick Post for Thanksgiving Day: MTFB First Oscar Nomination Predictions for Four Categories

QUICK POST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY: MTFB FIRST OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS FOR FOUR CATEGORIES

Welcome to MTFB  and Happy Thanksgiving to everyone.  Today we have a short post due to the holiday.  But and important post it is as I begin to expand the breadth of MTFB's Oscar predictions.  Todo so I'm adding first predictions for four categories including the newly added category of Best Casting.  Additionally, we'll take a first shot at Best International Film, Best Documentary and Best Animated Film.  As always TFF #52 (and #51) are indicated in Bold.  Here we go!

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

1) Sentimental Value (Norway)

2) It Was Just an Accident (France)

3) The Secret Agent (Brazil)

4) No Other Choice (South Korea)

5) The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

Others: The President's Cake (Iraq), Sirat (Spain) and Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan).

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) The Perfect Neighbor

2) 2000 Meters to Andriivka

3) Apocalypse in the Tropics (TFF #51)

4) The Alabama Solution

5) Cover-Up

Others: Orwell: 2+2=5, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk and The Librarians.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) K-Pop Demon Hunters

2) Arco

3) Zootopia 2

4) Elio

5) In Your Dreams

Others: Little Amelie or the Character of Rain, The Magnificent Life, Scarlet.

BEST CASTING

1) One Battle After Another

2) Sinners

3) Marty Supreme

4) Wicked: For Good

5) Hamnet

Others: Jay Kelly, Wake Up Dead Man and Train Dreams.

MTFB returns Monday with first predictions in four other categories.

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MTFB Oscar take: Supporting Acting and Screenplays / Cover-up Trailer and Interview / 1.5 Mill

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: UPDATING SUPPORTING ACTING AND SCREENPLAYS

Before we head into the predictions for Oscar categories that haven't appeared in MTFB thus far this season; here are the updated predictions for the Supporting Acting and Screenplay categories.  TFF #52 films and performers are in Bold.  A film's previous ranking is to the right of the title in parentheses.

SUPPRORTING ACTRESS

1) Ariana Grande/Wicked: For Good (2)

2) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

3) Amy Madigan/Weapons (4)

4) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (3)

5) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Regina Hall/One Battle After Another, Gwyneth Paltrow/Marty Supreme and Odessa A'Zion/Marty Supreme.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (2)

3) Paul Mescal/Hamnet (3)

4) Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly (4)

5) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (5)

Others: Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein, DelRoy Lindo/Sinners and Jeremy Strong/Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Sentimental Value (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) Jay Kelly (4)

5) It Was Just an Accident (5)

Others: Is This Thing On?, The Secret Agent and Weapons.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Hamnet (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Bugonia (4)

4) Train Dreams (5

5) Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (3)

Others: Frankenstein, No Other Choice and Wicked: For Good.

COVER-UP TRAILER AND INTERVIEW

Here's the official trailer for Laura Poitras' documentary about reporter Seymour Hersh.  from Netflix via YouTube:

Additionally, an interview from Variety with Poitras and co-director and Mark Obenhaus.

That is linked here.

1.5 MILL

I have usually been pretty diligent about noticing viewership milestones but in the craziness of the last three months I overlooked that MTFB had passed a fairly significant one.  according to the view tracker MTFB passed One and a half million views somewhere around Halloween.

As of this morning I have posted 2401 times.  2402 if you count this one.  That means an average of 634 views per post.  

The most viewed post is from Jan. 4, 2018.  It's about Film Guilds and the Oscar season and an interview from Variety with Saoirse Ronan and Greta Gerwig on Lady Bird. Over 2,750 views.

As always, thanks to all of you who follow my obsession.

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MTFB Oscar Predictions #3: Best Pic, Direction, Lead Acting / European Film Awards Nominations and TFF / Visitations: Zhao, Baumbach, Linklater and Hawke

MTFB OSCAR PREDICTIONS #3: BEST PIC, DIRECTION, LEAD ACTING

MTFB begins its expansion of Oscar nomination predictions today by updating four categories.  I'll update the Supporting Acting and Screenplay categories on Monday and a week from today start to provide predictions in the other 13 feature film categories.

or today and Monday you can see the last predicted position of each film to the right of the title in parentheses.  TFF #52 films/performers are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Sentimental Value (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

6) Wicked: For Good (6)

7) Frankenstein (9)

8) It Was Just an Accident (7)

9) Jay Kelly (8)

10) Train Dreams (NR)

Others: Bugonia, Avatar: Fire and Ice, F1.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)

2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)

3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)

4) Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident (5)

5) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)

Others: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Noah Baumbach/Jay Kelly and Guillermo del Toro/Frankenstein.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rene Reinsve/Sentimental Value (2)

3) Cynthia Enviro/Wicked: For Good (3)

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)

5) Amanda Seyfried/The Testament of Ann Lee (5)

Others: Chase Infiniti/OBAA, Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue, Sidney and Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)

2) Leonardo DiCaprio/OBAA (2)

3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (5)

5) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (4)

Others: George Clooney/Jay Kelly, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

EUROPEAN FILM AWARD NOMINATIONS AND TFF

Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value led the first wave of European Film Awards nominations announced last Tuesday.  Here are the nominations for TFF films:

Sentimental Value: Best European Film, Director, Actress (Reinsve), Actor (Sarsgard), Screenwriter.

It Was Just an Accident: Best European Film, Director, Screenwriter.

La Grazia: Best European Actor (Servillo) and Screenwriter.

Bugonia: Best European Director.  

And from TFF #51: Riefenstahl: Best European Film and Documentary.

The complete rundown of EFA nominations is linked here.

VISITATIONS: ZHAO, BAUMBACH, LINKLATER AND HAWKE

Chloe Zhao on Hamnet (and more) from Vanity Fair.

Noah Baumbach on Jay Kelly from Film Comment.

Noah Baumbach and Ethan Hawke on Blue Moon from Deadline.

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MTFB Oscar Take: Where We're At / Looks at Jay Kelly

 MTFB OSCAR TAKE: WHERE WE'RE AT

I'm through the second wave of predictions for the 2026 Oscars and the eight " Above the Line" categories.  I'll start expanding the predictions with Thursday's post to eventually include all 24 categories (up from 23 as The Academy has added Best Casting as a new Oscar category for this year).

But before I go into the expanded set of predictions, here's a reminder of where MTFB has nominees predicted currently.  These predictions were posted between Nov. 3rd and Nov. 13th. TFF #52 films/performers are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Sentimental Value (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

6) Wicked: For Good (9)

7) It Was Just an Accident (8)

8) Jay Kelly (6)

9) Frankenstein (NR)

10) Bugonia (NR)

Others: Train Dreams, Avatar: Fire and Ice, The Secret Agent and A House of Dynamite.

Comment: Big moves up for Wicked: For Good, Frankenstein and Bugonia. Dropping for Jay Kelly and A House of Dynamite.  

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)

2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)

3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)

4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident (5)

Others: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Noah Baumbach/Jay Kelly and Guillermo del Toro/Frankenstein.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rene Reinsve/Sentimental Value (2)

3) Cynthia Enviro/Wicked: For Good (3)

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)

5) Amanda Seyfried/The Testament of Ann Lee (NR)

Others: Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue, Sidney Sweeney/Christy and Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (2)

2) Leonardo Di Caprio/OBAA (1)

3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Ethan Hawke (NR)

5) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (5)

Others: George Clooney/Jay Kelly, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

SUPPRORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Ariana Grande/Wicked: For Good (2)

3) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (4)

4) Amy Madigan/Weapons (3)

5) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Regina Hall/One Battle After Another, Gwyneth Paltrow/Marty Supreme and Hailee Steinfeld/Sinners.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (2)

3) Paul Mescal/Hamnet (3)

4) Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly (4)

5) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (5)

Others: Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein, DelRoy Lindo/Sinners and Jeremy Strong/Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Sentimental Value (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) Jay Kelly (4)

5) It Was Just an Accident (5)

Others: A House of Dynamite, Weapon and Blue Moon.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Hamnet (2)

2) One Battle After Another (1)

3) Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (3)

4) Bugonia (4)

5) Train Dreams (5)

Others: Frankenstein, No Other Choice and Wicked: For Good.

COMMENT: Sentimental Value is predicted to earn seven nominations in these eight categories to lead the way.  Here's the breakdown of the 10 films MTFB has with possible Oscar nominations in the Big Eight categories:

Sentimental Value (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Fanning), Supporting Actress (Ibsdotter Lilleaas), Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Original Screenplay.

Hamnet (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay.

Jay Kelly (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Sandler), Original Screenplay.

Bugonia (3): Best Picture, Actress (Stone) and Adapted Screenplay.

It Was Just an Accident (2): Best Picture, Original Screenplay.

The Secret Agent (1): Best Actor (Moura).

Blue Moon (1): Best Actor (Hawke).

Other "possible" nominations:

Frankenstein: Best Direction, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay.

Jay Kelly: Best Direction, Actor (Clooney).

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere: Best Actor (White), Supporting Actor (Strong).

The Secret Agent: Best Picture.

If I Had Legs I's Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

Blue Moon: Best Original Screenplay.

Total MTFB predicted nominations from these eight categories for Telluride films: 22

Other "possible" nominations: 10.

LOOKS AT JAY KELLY

With its release coming in less than a month (Dec. 5th),  the P.R. is ramping up for Noah Baumbach's Jay Kelly starring George Clooney, Adam Sandler and Laura Dern.  Here's a taste of some of the promo that's in the air for the film.

Behind the Scenes with Clooney, Sandler and Baumbach from Netflix via YouTube.

Laura Dern and Adam Sandler with Awards Watch via YouTube.

 

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