MTFB'S First Oscar Predictions for 2025-26: Best Picture and Direction / New U.S. Trailer for The Secret Agent / Visitations: Blue Moon

 MTFB'S FIRST OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS FOR 2025-26

Well, we're finally here.  Seven weeks after the conclusion of TFF #52 it's time to start making some predix myself for the coming Oscar Season.  Today we'll roll out Best Picture and Best Direction.  We'll follow up with the Lead Acting categories on Thursday and then next week we'll the Supporting Acting categories and then the Screenplay categories.  We'll keep the focus on these eight "above the Line" categories for a bit before expending to eventually include all categories prior to Oscar nomination morning on January 22, 2026.  

TFF #52 films are Bold.  Here we go...

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another

2) Hamnet

3) Sinners

4) Sentimental Value

5) Marty Supreme

6) Jay Kelly

7) A House of Dynamite

8) It Was Just an Accident

9) Wicked: For Good

10) The Secret Agent

Other Possibles: Bugonia, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and Avatar: Fire and Ice.

Should these prove out to be the top ten it would mean half the nominated field for Best Picture played at TFF 52 which would be new record for TFF films to be BP nominated.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/One Battle After Another

2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet

3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners

4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value

5) Jafar Pahani/It Was Just an Accident

Other Possibles: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Kleber Mendonca Filho/The Secret Agent, Noah Baumbach/Jay Kelly.

NEW U.S. TRAILER FOR THE SECRET AGENT

NEON has released a new trailer for Kebler Mendonca Filho's The Secret Agent.  Here that is from YouTube:

VISITATIONS: BLUE MOON

Ethan Hawke and Richard Linklater for Blue Moon from Awards Radar.

Bobby Canavale on Blue Moon from Awards Radar.

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Final Look at Oscar Experts Best Picture Predictions: Screen Rant / Best Picture Scoreboard / Interviews from The New York Film Festival (Jay Kelly and Sentimental Value) / Final Trailer for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

 FINAL LOOK AT OSCAR EXPERTS BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS: SCREEN RANT

 Here's a last look at what Oscar Experts are predicting for Best Picture,  These come from Screen Rant and were updated last Friday (TFF films are in Bold):

1) Hamnet

2) One Battle After Another

3) Sinners

4) Sentimental Value

5) Marty Supreme

6) A House of Dynamite

7) Wicked: For Good

8) The Secret Agent

9) Avatar: Fire and Ask

10) Jay Kelly

So Screen Rant has four TFF #52 films in the final ten for Best Picture which would tie for the record number of Telluride films nominated for BP in a single.

Stay tuned for my first jump into the prediction pool on Monday with my takes on Best Picture and Direction.

Here's the link to the Screen Rant prediction page.

BEST PICTURE SCORECARD

Let's update our chart of the all of the BP predictions we have gathered so far.  To this point with input from Gold Derby (GD), The Hollywood Reporter (THR), Variety (V),  Awards Watch (AW),  Awards Radar (AR), Next Best Picture (NBP), The Contending (TC) and Screen Rant (SC),  here's where TFF #52 films stand for BP predictions:

Hamnet (8): GD, THR, V, AW, AR, NBP, TC, SR

Sentimental Value (8): GD, THR, V, AW, AR, NBP, TC, SR

Jay Kelly (7): GD, THR, AW, AR, NBP, TC, SR

Bugonia (5): GD, THR, V, AR, TC

It Was Just Accident (5): GD, THR, AW, NBP, TC

The Secret Agent (4): THR, V, NBP, SR

Frankenstein (2): V, AW

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (2): AW, AR

INTERVIEWS FROM THE NEW YORK FILM FESTIVAL

From YouTube:

Noah Baumbach, George Clooney, Adam Sandler and Laura Dern for Jay Kelly.

Joachim Trier and Noah Baumbach for Sentimental Value and Jay Kelly.

FINAL TRAILER FOR SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE

Just ahead of its Oct. 24th release comes the final trailer for Scott Cooper's Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere. Here it is from You Tube:

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