Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
Here we go...ratings from The Professionals of the films from TFF #51. Some standards: industry professionals agreed to rate the films they at TFF #51 on a 1-5 scale. The pros are a mix of critics, awards experts and other industry insiders. To make the list this year a film had to be rated by at least half of the Pros.
Here's this year's list of Pros:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
J. Don Birnam-Jorge T/SplashReport.com
Christina Jeurling Birro/Pop Culture Confidential
Clayton Davis/Variety
David Ehrlich/Indiewire
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Marshall Flores/Awards Daily
Mark Johnson/Good as Gold
Dave Karger/Turner Classic Movies
Joey Magidson/Awards Radar
Ryan McQuade/Awards Watch
Will Mavity/Next Best Picture
Clarence Moye/Awards Daily
Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Anonymous
And here are the results for the 2024 edition of The SHOW:
1) Anora 4.53
2) September 5 4.08
3) Emilia Perez 4.07
4) Saturday Night 3.86
5) Conclave 3.83
6) Nickel Boys 3.77
7) Piece by Piece 3.60
8) The Piano Lesson 3.46
9) Maria 3.43
10) The Friend 3.25
11) The End 2.65
Congratulations to Sean Baker and Anora for topping the TFF Pro's Poll for 2024. Anora's 4.53 rating supplants Argo and The Shape of Water on the all time Professional's list in a tie with Poor Things for the 9th and 10th spots:
And after TFF #51, the new updates all time Top Tens *well...since 2012:
The Professionals All Time Top Ten:
1) Moonlight (4.87) (16) (Won Best Picture)
2) Parasite (4.75) (19) (Won Best Picture)
3) Roma (4.73) (18) (Nominated Best Picture)
4) Birdman (4.72) (14) (Won Best Picture)
5) 12 Years a Slave (4.70-tie) (13) (Won Best Picture)
6) Central Park Five (4.70-tie) (12)
7) Foxcatcher (4.63) (14)
8) La La Land (4.58) (16) (Nominated Best Picture)
9) Poor Things (4.53) (23) (Nominated Best Picture)
9) Anora (4.53) (24)
THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE-LAST CALL
Here's your FINALCALL to get in your ratings for TFF #51 films. The scale is 1 to 5. The deadline is tomorrow at 5:00 pm PDT|. The People's results will be Monday's regularly scheduled post. Right now the battle for the top spot is a slugfest. Your ratings could tip the scale in favor of the films you loved best!
As I have been doing since 2012, I asked a panel of 18 industry journalists, bloggers and professionals to rate the films they saw at TFF #50.
A couple of notes by way of explanation. The Pros were asked to rate the films they saw on a scale of 1-5 with 1 being not-so-very-good and 5 being "fantastic". Additionally, a film had to be rated by more than half of this year's panel of pros to make the list.
I am, as always, indebted to all of the industry professionals who took time from their crazy busy schedules to provide me their feedback. I can't adequately express my appreciation.
Here's this year's panel:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
J. Don Birnam-Jorge T/SplashReport.com
Clayton Davis/Variety
Marshall Flores/Awards Daily
Mark Johnson/Awards Daily and Good as Gold
Dave Karger/Turner Classic Movies
Joey Magidson/Awards Radar
Ryan McQuade/Awards Watch
Scott Menzel/We Live Entertainment
Clarence Moye/Awards Daily
Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
Chris Willman/Variety
Anonymous
Past toppers for each Pro Poll and their average rating have been:
2012: The Central Park Five (4.7)
2013: 12 Years a Slave (4.7)
2014: Birdman (4.72)
2015: Son of Saul (4.44)
2016: Moonlight (4.82)
2017: The Shape of Water (4.5)
2018: Roma (4.73)
2019: Parasite (4.75)
2020: No Fest
2021:Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (4.44)
2022: TAR (3.93)
To qualify for inclusion a film had to have been seen by at least half of The Professionals. So using that metric Here is the Professionals' Poll for TFF #50:
1) Poor Things (4.53)
2) Anatomy of a Fall (4.44)
3) The Taste of Things (4.43)
4) The Holdovers (4.21)
5) The Zone of Interest (4.15)
6) All of Us Strangers (3.92)
7) Saltburn (3.89)
8) Rustin (3.42)
9) The Bikeriders (3.23)
10) Fingernails (3.13)
11) Nyad (3.11)
12) El Conde (2.68)
The films that were seen by the most pros were Poor Things and The Bikeriders. Each was seen by 15 out of the 16. Next in line were The Holdovers and Saltburn which were watched by 14 of the 16.
It's interesting to note that five films reached a better average score from this year's lineup than last year's top average for TAR (3.93).
After this year's poll, The Professionals' All Time Top Ten (through 2023) looks like this with Poor Things entering the all time Pros Top Ten at #9. Son of Saul and Marcel the Shell with Shoes On which had been tied for the all time #10 spot were displaced.
1) Moonlight (4.87) (16)
2) Parasite (4.75) (19)
3) Roma (4.73) (18)
4) Birdman (4.72) (14)
5) 12 Years a Slave (4.70-tie) (13)
6) Central Park Five (4.70-tie) (12)
7) Foxcatcher (4.63) (14)
8) La La Land (4.58) (16)
9) Poor Things (4.53) (23)
10) Argo (4.50-tie) (12)
10) The Shape of Water (4.50-tie) (17)
RE-VISITING TFF #50
***My first thought is how solid TFF in 2023 was. The lineup was varied and deep. I was particularly taken with The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest, The Bikeriders and Poor Things. I missed getting in All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall and Nyad which were on my initial list to get to during the festival but I got to add Daddio, Tuesday and The Falling Stars all of which I enjoyed/admired.
The fest was DEEP!
***As always, it's great to see friends and colleagues at the festival and catch up. It's also fun to make new friends. Do I always get to run into people I want to see? Nope. But I got to see some folks who returned to the fest after having been absent for a bit. Always nice.
***Also always nice is meeting readers of the blog. That might be the best part! It's certainly not the "perks". Absent the accreditation as a journalist there aren't any perks.
***Readership really exploded this year. It always spikes in August and September as the fest approaches and then happens but 2023 blew through previous highs for views. As I post this morning MTFB has had approximately 78,000 views in the last 40 days.
***For those who missed it-MTFB went 24/25 on The Final Bets this year. 6 of 10 from the Original Ten bets back in June and the overall percentage of correct predictions from the final posted since I started recording these as "Bets" is 97%.
OSCAR EXPERTS AND TFF
I ran down some of the latest projections from some serious Oscarologists after the fest concluded. Thee are projections post-Telluride and with a good portion of Venice concluded. I'll be passing some of these along in the context of TFF #50 films over the next week to ten days. In each case I'm looking at their projections in the eight "above-the-line categories: Best Picture, Direction, the four acting categories and the two screenplay categories.
Poor Things with five nominations with one other possibility: Best Picture, Direction (Lanthimos), Actress (Stone), Supporting Actor (Ruffalo) and Adapted Screenplay. The Other possibility is a second Supporting Actor nomination for Willem Dafoe. As an aside, I fully expect Poor Things will load on craft nominations as well. I can see the film grabbing double digit nominations when Oscar noms are announced on Jan. 23rd.
The Zone of Interest with four nominations: Best Picture, Direction (Glazer), Actress (Huller) and Adapted Screenplay.
The Holdovers with three nominations and an additional possibility: Best Picture, Actor (Giamatti) and Original Screenplay. The added possibility is a nomination for Alexander Payne for direction.
All of Us Strangers with one nomination and two other chances: Best Adapted Screenplay. The other shots are Actor (Scott) and Supporting Actor (Bell).
Saltburn with one nomination and another possibility: Best Original Screenplay. The other chance is Best Picture.
Rustin is projected to have a Best Actor nomination for Coleman Domingo.
TFF #50 films that Davis does not have predicted with a nomination but does have close enough to be considered potentials include:
An astounding six "maybes" for The Bikeriders: Best Picture, Direction (Nichols), Actor (Butler), Supporting Actress (Comer), Supporting Actor (Hardy) and Original Screenplay.
Nyad with a shot for Annette Bening as Best Actress.
Anatomy of a Fall possible for Best Original Screenplay.
POOR THINGS WINS IN VENICE
Yorgos Lanthimos' Poor Things, which screened to pack houses at Telluride last week, has won The Golden Lion, the top prize given at the 80th Venice Film festival. Two other TFF films earned honors from Venice juries. Pablo Larrain won Best Screenplay for El Conde and Alex Braverman's Andy Kaufman documentary Thank You Very Much was named Best Documentary in the Venice Classics section.
ME AND THE BBC
I wrote last week that I had been approached by the BBC to be interviewed for their program Talking Movies with Tom Brook. I said "sure" and that interview occurred a week ago on Sunday.
Well, the program appeared on the BBC yesterday and here in the USA on BBC News. I lifted it and edited it to focus on my "appearance". I'm in twice and my guest star is Anne Thompson of Indiewire:
TRAILERS: NYAD AND THE ROYAL HOTEL
NYAD:
THE ROYAL HOTEL:
THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE
You have another week until the clock runs out on you chance to be a part of this year's People's poll of TFF #50 films.
All you have to do is rate the films you saw and then report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".
Report your ratings to: mpgort@gmail.com
The deadline for this year to turn in your ratings will be Sept. 15th.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2
Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social
MTFB's Facebook Page
MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays
If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com
After last year's stunning win of the MTFB Professionals ratings by Dean Fleischer-Camp's Marcel the Shell with Shoes On I had to wonder if another "upset" of that kind might happen again. That result a year ago made quite a splash with outlets such as Variety, Indiewire, Awards Daily and Awards Watch taking notice.
A couple of notes by way of explanation. The Pros were asked to rate the films they saw on a scale of 1-5 with 1 being not-so-very-good and 5 being "fantastic". Additionally, a film had to be rated by more than half of this year's panel of pros to make the list.
I am, as always, indebted to all of the industry professionals who took time from their crazy busy schedules to provide me their feedback. I can't adequately express my appreciation. And this year's panel of pros (in alphabetical order) are:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
J. Don Birnam-Jorge T/SplashReport.com
Clayton Davis/Variety
David Ehrlich/Indiewire
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Marshall Flores/Awards Daily
Dave Karger/TCM
Tomris Laffly/Roger Ebert.com and others
Joey Magidson/Awards Radar
Scott Menzel/We Live Entertainment
Clarence Moye/Awards Daily
Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Anonymous
NOTE: THE POLL HAS BEEN CORRECTED AS OF 11:45 AM EDT TO REFLECT A TABULATION ERROR. The correction added .09 to the average od Sebastian DeLillo's The Wonder moving it from 7th to 5th in an incredibly tight poll. My apologies.
We missed having ratings from Anne Thompson/Indiewire and Mark Johnson/Good as Gold-Awards Daily as both were unable to attend TFF #49. My hope is to have them both back into the fold for TFF #50.
Here's the rundown of the Professionals ratings for each year since I started polling the Pros in 2012.
2021:
1) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (4.44)
2) The Power of the Dog (4.32)
3) Belfast (4.30)
4) Spencer (4.27)
5) Red Rocket (4.22)
6) The Rescue (3.93)
7) King Richard (3.92)
8) Bergman Island (3.79)
9) C'mon C'mon (3.65)
10) The Lost Daughter (3.48)
11) Cyrano (3.46)
12) The French Dispatch (3.05)
13) Encounter (2.71)
2019:
1) Parasite (4.75)
2) The Two Popes (4.42)
3) Marriage Story (4.40)
4) Waves (4.29)
5) A Hidden Life (4.20)
6) Portrait of a Lady on Fire (4.17)
7) Ford v. Ferrari (4.11)
8) The Report (3.87)
9) Pain and Glory (3.83)
10) Uncut Gems (3.78)
11) Motherless Brooklyn (3.58)
12) The Climb (3.50)
13) Judy (3.13)
14) The Aeronauts (3.08)
15) The Assistant (2.75)
2018:
1) Roma (4.73)
2) First Man (4.17)
3) Cold War (4.14-tie)
3) Free Solo (4.14-tie)
5) Can You Ever Forgive Me ? (4.11)
6) The Favourite (3.90)
7) Watergate (3.60)
8) Border (3.50)
9) Destroyer (3.25)
10) Boy Erased (3.20)
11) The Old Man and the Gun (3.17)
12) White Boy Rick (3.06)
13) The Front Runner (3.05)
2017:
1) The Shape of Water (4.5)
2) (Tie) Faces Places (4.25)
2) (Tie) Loveless (4.25)
2) (Tie) The Rider (4.25)
5) Lady Bird (4.20)
6) First Reformed (4.0)
7) Battle of the Sexes (3.95)
8) Darkest Hour (3.85)
9) Hostiles (3.79)
10) First They Killed My Father (3.78)
11) Loving Vincent (3.63)
12) Lean on Pete (3.50)
13) Wonderstruck (3.25)
14) Downsizing (3.10)
15) Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (2.60)
2016:
1) Moonlight (4.82)
2) La La Land (4.58)
3) Things to Come (4.20)
4) Manchester by the Sea (3.95)
5) Into the Inferno (3.92)
6) Sully (3.89)
7) Arrival (3.88)
8) Toni Erdmann (3.85)
9) Maudie (3.60)
10) Una (3.44)
11) California Typewriter (3.25)
12) Neruda (3.00)
13) Bleed for This (2.71)
14) Wakefield (2.67)
15) Norman (2.67)
2015:
1) Son of Saul (4.44)
2) Anomalisa (4.42)
3) Spotlight (4.41)
4) Steve Jobs (4.31)
5) Beasts of No Nation (4.27)
6) Carol (4.11)
7) 45 Years (4.06)
8) Taxi (4.00)
9) Black Mass (3.85)
10) Time to Choose (3.57)
11) Room (3.50)
12) Suffragette (3.49)
13) He Named Me Malala (2.83)
2014:
1) Birdman (4.72)
2) Foxcatcher (4.63)
3) ’71 (4.25)
4) Wild Tales (4.20)
5) Leviathan (4.17)
6) Mr. Turner (4.10)
7) The Imitation Game (4.06)
8) Mommy (3.92)
9) Two Days, One Night (3.90)
10) The Homesman (3.80)
11) Red Army (3.67)
12) Madame Bovary (3.30)
13) Wild (3.21)
14) Rosewater (3.06)
2013:
1) 12 Years a Slave (4.7)
2) Blue is the Warmest Color (4.4)
3) Gravity (4.35)
4) Tim's Vermeer (4.3)
5) Nebraska (4.3)
6) All is Lost (4.2)
7) Inside Llewyn Davis (4.1)
8) Starred Up (4.0)
9) The Past (3.9)
10) Labor Day (3.6)
11) Bethlehem (3.6)
12) Prisoners (3.5)
13) The Lunchbox (3.5)
14) Salinger (3.3)
15) The Unknown Known (3.3)
16) Palo Alto (3.2)
17) Tracks (3.2)
18) Under the Skin (3.1)
18) (tie) The Wind Rises (3.1)
20) The Invisible Woman (3.0)
2012:
1) Central Park Five-4.7
2) Argo-4.5
3) Stories We Tell- 4.3
4) The Sapphires 4.25
5) (Tie) Frances Ha and The Attack- 4.2
7) Rust and Bone- 4.0
8) The Iceman- 3.8
9) At Any Price- 3.7
10) (Tie) Amour and Baraka- 3.5
12) No- 3.4
14) (Tie) Hyde Park on Hudson and The Gatekeepers 3.0
15) Everyday- 2.8
AND NOW...The Professionals Ratings from TFF #49 (this year only 11 films were seen by enough Professionals to make the list)
1) TAR 3.93
2) Women Talking 3.87
3) Armageddon Time 3.73
4) Empire of Light 3.70
5) The Wonder 3.66
6) One Fine Morning 3.64
7) Aftersun 3.63
8) Bones and All 3.48
9) Lady Chatterley's Lover 3.46
10) Living 3.05
11) Bardo 2.39
Both TAR and Women Talking were the most watched films as all 15 Pros made it to a screening of those films. Empire of Light was seen by 14 Pros.
Tough times continued for Alejandro Inarittu's Bardo. After a less than enthusiastic response from critics in Venice and then Telluride, the Pros for MTFB tended to agree with that general assessment.
After this year's poll, The Professionals' All Time Top Ten (through 2022) remained unchanged from last year:
1) Moonlight (4.87) (16)
2) Parasite (4.75) (19)
3) Roma (4.73) (18)
4) Birdman (4.72) (14)
5) 12 Years a Slave (4.70-tie) (13)
6) Central Park Five (4.70-tie) (12)
7) Foxcatcher (4.63) (14)
8) La La Land (4.58) (16)
9) Argo (4.50-tie) (12)
9) The Shape of Water (4.50-tie) (17)
10) Son of Saul (4.44) (15)
10) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (4.44) (21)
THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE
Here's a final reminder to readers of MTFB to get their ratings to me ASAP. I'm extending the deadline for The People until Sunday evening (9/18) at 5:00 pm (PDT).
Same standard as always. Please use a 1 to 5 scale to rate the films you saw at Telluride with 1 being terrible and 5 being wonderful.
Email ratings to mogrot@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
The People's Telluride will be posted next Monday morning.
SAM MENDES ON EMPIRE OF LIGHT
Deadline has posted an interview with the director and writer of Empire of Light (#4 on the above Pros poll of Telluride for this year).
A week removed from the conclusion of the 48th Telluride Film festival I present to you this year's Professionals ratings for TFF #48 films.
A couple of notes by way of explanation. The Pros were asked to rate then films they saw on a scale of 1-5 with 1 being not-so-very-good and 5 being "fantastic". Additionally, a film had to be rated by more than half of this year's panel of pros to make the list.
I am, as always, indebted to all of the industry professionals who took time from their crazy busy schedules to provide me their feedback. I can't adequately express my appreciation. And this year's panel of pros (in alphabetical order) are:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
J. Don Birnam-Jorge T/SplashReport.com
Clayton Davis/Variety
Peter DeBruge/Variety
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Marshall Flores/Awards Daily
Mark Johnson/Good as Gold
Dave Karger/TCM
Scott Menzel/We Live Entertainment
Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture
Eugene Novikov/Film Blather
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
Anonymous
Here's the rundown of the Professionals ratings for each year since I started polling the Pros in 2012.
2019:
1) Parasite (4.75)
2) The Two Popes (4.42)
3) Marriage Story (4.40)
4) Waves (4.29)
5) A Hidden Life (4.20)
6) Portrait of a Lady on Fire (4.17)
7) Ford v. Ferrari (4.11)
8) The Report (3.87)
9) Pain and Glory (3.83)
10) Uncut Gems (3.78)
11) Motherless Brooklyn (3.58)
12) The Climb (3.50)
13) Judy (3.13)
14) The Aeronauts (3.08)
15) The Assistant (2.75)
2018:
1) Roma (4.73)
2) First Man (4.17)
3) Cold War (4.14-tie)
3) Free Solo (4.14-tie)
5) Can You Ever Forgive Me ? (4.11)
6) The Favourite (3.90)
7) Watergate (3.60)
8) Border (3.50)
9) Destroyer (3.25)
10) Boy Erased (3.20)
11) The Old Man and the Gun (3.17)
12) White Boy Rick (3.06)
13) The Front Runner (3.05)
2017:
1) The Shape of Water (4.5)
2) (Tie) Faces Places (4.25)
2) (Tie) Loveless (4.25)
2) (Tie) The Rider (4.25)
5) Lady Bird (4.20)
6) First Reformed (4.0)
7) Battle of the Sexes (3.95)
8) Darkest Hour (3.85)
9) Hostiles (3.79)
10) First They Killed My Father (3.78)
11) Loving Vincent (3.63)
12) Lean on Pete (3.50)
13) Wonderstruck (3.25)
14) Downsizing (3.10)
15) Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (2.60)
2016:
1) Moonlight (4.82)
2) La La Land (4.58)
3) Things to Come (4.20)
4) Manchester by the Sea (3.95)
5) Into the Inferno (3.92)
6) Sully (3.89)
7) Arrival (3.88)
8) Toni Erdmann (3.85)
9) Maudie (3.60)
10) Una (3.44)
11) California Typewriter (3.25)
12) Neruda (3.00)
13) Bleed for This (2.71)
14) Wakefield (2.67)
15) Norman (2.67)
2015:
1) Son of Saul (4.44)
2) Anomalisa (4.42)
3) Spotlight (4.41)
4) Steve Jobs (4.31)
5) Beasts of No Nation (4.27)
6) Carol (4.11)
7) 45 Years (4.06)
8) Taxi (4.00)
9) Black Mass (3.85)
10) Time to Choose (3.57)
11) Room (3.50)
12) Suffragette (3.49)
13) He Named Me Malala (2.83)
2014:
1) Birdman (4.72)
2) Foxcatcher (4.63)
3) ’71 (4.25)
4) Wild Tales (4.20)
5) Leviathan (4.17)
6) Mr. Turner (4.10)
7) The Imitation Game (4.06)
8) Mommy (3.92)
9) Two Days, One Night (3.90)
10) The Homesman (3.80)
11) Red Army (3.67)
12) Madame Bovary (3.30)
13) Wild (3.21)
14) Rosewater (3.06)
2013:
1) 12 Years a Slave (4.7)
2) Blue is the Warmest Color (4.4)
3) Gravity (4.35)
4) Tim's Vermeer (4.3)
5) Nebraska (4.3)
6) All is Lost (4.2)
7) Inside Llewyn Davis (4.1)
8) Starred Up (4.0)
9) The Past (3.9)
10) Labor Day (3.6)
11) Bethlehem (3.6)
12) Prisoners (3.5)
13) The Lunchbox (3.5)
14) Salinger (3.3)
15) The Unknown Known (3.3)
16) Palo Alto (3.2)
17) Tracks (3.2)
18) Under the Skin (3.1)
18) (tie) The Wind Rises (3.1)
20) The Invisible Woman (3.0)
2012:
1) Central Park Five-4.7
2) Argo-4.5
3) Stories We Tell- 4.3
4) The Sapphires 4.25
5) (Tie) Frances Ha and The Attack- 4.2
7) Rust and Bone- 4.0
8) The Iceman- 3.8
9) At Any Price- 3.7
10) (Tie) Amour and Baraka- 3.5
12) No- 3.4
14) (Tie) Hyde Park on Hudson and The Gatekeepers 3.0
15) Everyday- 2.8
The Professionals' All Time Top Ten through 2019:
1) Moonlight (4.87) (16)
2) Parasite (4.75) (19)
3) Roma (4.73) (18)
4) Birdman (4.72) (14)
5) 12 Years a Slave (4.70-tie) (13)
6) Central Park Five (4.70-tie) (12)
7) Foxcatcher (4.63) (14)
8) La La Land (4.58) (16)
9) Argo (4.50-tie) (12)
9) The Shape of Water (4.50-tie) (17)
10) Son of Saul (4.44) (15)
And finally...because MTFB is about to change its focus to the Oscar prospects for this year's crop of films from TFF... Here's where Oscar nominees for Best Picture from TFF have landed each year according to The Professionals:
2012: Argo-4.50 (Winner) #2, Amour-3.50 #10
2013: 12 Years a Slave-4.70 #1 (Winner), Gravity-4.35 #3, Nebraska-4.30 #5
2014: Birdman-4.72 (Winner) #1, The Imitation Game-4.06 #7
2015: Spotlight-4.41 (Winner) #3, Room-3.50 #11
2016: Moonlight-4.82 #1 (Winner), La La Land 4.48 #2, Manchester by the Sea-3.95 #4, Arrival-3.88 #7
2017: The Shape of Water-4.50 #1 (Winner), Lady Bird-4.20 #5, Darkest Hour-3.85 #8
2018: Roma-4.74 #1, The Favourite-3.90 #6
2019: Parasite- 4.75 (Winner) #1, Marriage Story (4.40) #3, Ford v. Ferrari (4.11) #7
So, finally...here are the results of this year's MTFB Professionals film ratings for TFF #48 (with the cumulative average in parentheses). For a film to be counted for this year's listing, seven of the 15 respondents had to have rated it. 13films earned enough responses to be counted.
1) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (4.44)
2) The Power of the Dog (4.32)
3) Belfast (4.30)
4) Spencer (4.27)
5) Red Rocket (4.22)
6) The Rescue (3.93)
7) King Richard (3.92)
8) Bergman Island (3.79)
9) C'mon C'mon (3.65)
10) The Lost Daughter (3.48)
11) Cyrano (3.46)
12) The French Dispatch (3.05)
13) Encounter (2.71)
Three films had responses from six Pros and so just missed making the list: A Hero, Julia and Petite Maman. The films with the most responses were: Belfast (15/15), The Power of the Dog (14/15), Cyrano, King Richard and The Lost Daughter (13/15).
Anyone have Marcel the Shell as their bet to take the top spot? It's 4.44 rating is enough to move it into a tie for the 10th spot on the all time Professionals' list with Son of Saul.
The PEOPLE"S TELLURIDE ratings will be posted on Monday, Sept. 20th.
BEGINNING TO THINK ABOUT THE OSCARS
Now that TFF #48 has come and gone, it's time to do the annual transition of MTFB and think about how the films of this year's fest will be a part of the narrative of the 2021-22 Oscar season.
As usual, I'll be posting soon my own predictions about the Academy Awards, but I'll also be tracking the thoughts of some of the best awards prognosticators in the business.
To that end, we start today with a glance at Clayton Davis who is the Oscar brain at Variety. In the coming weeks and months I'll also be tracking Oscar geniuses Sasha Stone/Awards Daily, Mark Johnson/Good as Gold (which is housed at Awards Daily), Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture, Erik Anderson/Awards Watch. Anne Thompson/Indiewire and others.
Soooo....here we go.
Clayton Davis currently has post-Telluride predictions in eight categories at Variety: Picture, Director, all four acting categories and the two screenplay categories. His crystal ball suggests that TFF #48 films with Oscar nominations in those categories would be:
Belfast: Picture, Director/Branagh, Supporting Actress/Balfe and Dench, Supporting Actor/Hinds, Original Screenplay
The Power of the Dog: Picture, Director/Campion, Actor/Cumberbatch, Supporting Actress/Dunst, Adapted Screenplay
King Richard: Picture, Actor/Smith
C'mon C'mon: Picture, Original Screenplay
The Lost Daughter: Best Actress/Colman, Adapted Screenplay
Cyrano: Actor/Dinklage
Spencer: Actress/Stewart
The French Dispatch: Supporting Actor/Wright
That's a total of 20 predicted nominations in the "above-the-line' categories.
Other films/performers that are "next in line" as Davis puts it are:
Best Picture: Flee, Cyrano, The Lost Daughter, A Hero and Spencer
Best Director: Mike Mills/C'mon C'mon
Best Actress: Davis has Caitirona Balfe listed here depending on what category she lands in.
Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix/C'mon C'mon
Best Supporting Actress: Aunjanue Ellis/King Richard, Jesse Buckley/The Lost Daughter, Gaby Hoffman/C'mon C'mon
Best Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog, Woody Nomrna/C'mon C'mon
Best Original Screenplay: King Richard, A Hero
A NEW PAGE FOR MTFB
Someone asked me during this year's festival if I had collected all of The Professionals and People's film ratings dating back to the first year I did it in 2012. My answer was "Um...no".
Then I thought that sounded like a good idea. So as we roll into the next week or so where I reveal the results of this years Pros, Peeps and Composite ratings, I have added a new page as of this morning that records all of the results from each poll from 2012 to the present. You'll find it on a page listed as "Film Ratings from Past Fests".
I hope you find it fun and useful.
AWARDS FROM VENICE
No TFF film won the Golden Lion. That top award went to Audrey Diwan's Happening. But TFF #48 films did not go unrewarded in Venice.
Jane Campion won the Silver Award for Best Direction for The Power of the Dog. Paolo Sorrentino's The Hand of God won the Silver Lion Special Jury Prize. Maggie Gyllenhaal won the award for Best Screenplay for The Lost Daughter and Filippo Scotti was named Best Young Actor for his role in The Hand of God.
Welcome to Monday and the return here at MTFB to the traditional twice a week publishing schedule.
THE PROFESSIONALS TELLURIDE
Here it is. One week after the last day of the 46th Telluride Film Festival I have for you The Professionals Telluride. This year's ratings averages for many of the films that played last week.
This year's professionals include a total of 18 pros who attended the festival and represent broad spectrum of views regarding the film industry. It includes critics, bloggers and others who are part of the biz.
Here's the list of this year's pros:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
J. Don Birnam-Jorge T/SplashReport.com
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Marshall Flores/Awards Daily
Mark Johnson/Awards Circuit
Gary Kramer/Salon
Scott Menzel/We Live Entertainment
Kenny Miles/We Live Entertainment
Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture
Eugene Novikov/Rotten Tomatoes
John Rhodes/Screencraft
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
Chris Willman/Variety
Anonymous
Huge thanks to these very busy pros who graciously took the time to supply me with their ratings of the films that they saw last week at TFF #46.
Here's the rundown of the Professionals ratings for each year since I started polling the Pros in 2012.
2018:
1) Roma (4.73)
2) First Man (4.17)
3) Cold War (4.14-tie)
3) Free Solo (4.14-tie)
5) Can You Ever Forgive Me ? (4.11)
6) The Favourite (3.90)
7) Watergate (3.60)
8) Border (3.50)
9) Destroyer (3.25)
10) Boy Erased (3.20)
11) The Old Man and the Gun (3.17)
12) White Boy Rick (3.06)
13) The Front Runner (3.05)
2017:
1) The Shape of Water (4.5)
2) (Tie) Faces Places (4.25)
2) (Tie) Loveless (4.25)
2) (Tie) The Rider (4.25)
5) Lady Bird (4.20)
6) First Reformed (4.0)
7) Battle of the Sexes (3.95)
8) Darkest Hour (3.85)
9) Hostiles (3.79)
10) First They Killed My Father (3.78)
11) Loving Vincent (3.63)
12) Lean on Pete (3.50)
13) Wonderstruck (3.25)
14) Downsizing (3.10)
15) Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (2.60)
2016:
1) Moonlight (4.82)
2) La La Land (4.58)
3) Things to Come (4.20)
4) Manchester by the Sea (3.95)
5) Into the Inferno (3.92)
6) Sully (3.89)
7) Arrival (3.88)
8) Toni Erdmann (3.85)
9) Maudie (3.60)
10) Una (3.44)
11) California Typewriter (3.25)
12) Neruda (3.00)
13) Bleed for This (2.71)
14) Wakefield (2.67)
15) Norman (2.67)
2015:
1) Son of Saul (4.44)
2) Anomalisa (4.42)
3) Spotlight (4.41)
4) Steve Jobs (4.31)
5) Beasts of No Nation (4.27)
6) Carol (4.11)
7) 45 Years (4.06)
8) Taxi (4.00)
9) Black Mass (3.85)
10) Time to Choose (3.57)
11) Room (3.50)
12) Suffragette (3.49)
13) He Named Me Malala (2.83)
2014:
1)Birdman (4.72)
2)Foxcatcher (4.63)
3)’71 (4.25)
4)Wild Tales (4.20)
5)Leviathan (4.17)
6)Mr. Turner (4.10)
7)The Imitation Game (4.06)
8)Mommy (3.92)
9)Two Days, One Night (3.90)
10)The Homesman (3.80)
11)Red Army (3.67)
12)Madame Bovary (3.30)
13)Wild (3.21)
14) Rosewater (3.06)
2013:
1) 12 Years a Slave (4.7)
2) Blue is the Warmest Color (4.4)
3) Gravity (4.35)
4) Tim's Vermeer (4.3)
5) Nebraska (4.3)
6) All is Lost (4.2)
7) Inside Llewyn Davis (4.1)
8) Starred Up (4.0)
9) The Past (3.9)
10) Labor Day (3.6)
11) Bethlehem (3.6)
12) Prisoners (3.5)
13) The Lunchbox (3.5)
14) Salinger (3.3)
15) The Unknown Known (3.3)
16) Palo Alto (3.2)
17) Tracks (3.2)
18) Under the Skin (3.1)
18) (tie) The Wind Rises (3.1)
20) The Invisible Woman (3.0)
2012:
1) Central Park Five-4.7
2) Argo-4.5
3) Stories We Tell- 4.3
4) The Sapphires 4.25
5) (Tie) Frances Ha and The Attack- 4.2
7) Rust and Bone- 4.0
8) The Iceman- 3.8
9) At Any Price- 3.7
10) (Tie) Amour and Baraka- 3.5
12) No- 3.4
14) (Tie) Hyde Park on Hudson and The Gatekeepers 3.0
15) Everyday- 2.8
And the all time TFF Top Ten prior to the films of TFF #46 according to the industry pros since starting this in 2012:
1) Moonlight (4.87) (16)
2) Roma (4.73) (18)
3) Birdman (4.72) (14)
4) 12 Years a Slave (4.70-tie) (13)
4) Central Park Five (4.70-tie) (12)
6) Foxcatcher (4.63) (14)
7) La La Land (4.58) (16)
8) Argo (4.50-tie) (12)
8) The Shape of Water (4.50-tie) (17)
10) Son of Saul (4.44) (15)
15 films earned enough responses from the Pros to make it onto the list for this year.
And now...drumroll please...This year's Professionals Telluride (with averaged rating in parenthesis):
1) Parasite (4.75)
2) The Two Popes (4.42)
3) Marriage Story (4.40)
4) Waves (4.29)
5) A Hidden Life (4.20)
6) Portrait of a Lady on Fire (4.17)
7) Ford v. Ferrari (4.11)
8) The Report (3.87)
9) Pain and Glory (3.83)
10) Uncut Gems (3.78)
11) Motherless Brooklyn (3.58)
12) The Climb (3.50)
13) Judy (3.13)
14) The Aeronauts (3.08)
15) The Assistant (2.75)
Parasite's 4.75 moves it to the #2 spot on the Top Ten films to play Telluride among the Pros since I started collecting these responses in 2o12. The new All Time Top Ten:
1) Moonlight (4.87) (16)
2) Parasite (4.75) (19)
3) Roma (4.73) (18)
4) Birdman (4.72) (14)
5) 12 Years a Slave (4.70-tie) (13)
6) Central Park Five (4.70-tie) (12)
7) Foxcatcher (4.63) (14)
8) La La Land (4.58) (16)
9) Argo (4.50-tie) (12)
9) The Shape of Water (4.50-tie) (17)
10) Son of Saul (4.44) (15)
And finally...because MTFB is about to change its focus to the Oscar prospects for this year's crop of films from TFF... Here's where Oscar nominees for Best Picture from TFF have landed each year according to The Professionals:
2012: Argo-4.50 (Winner) #2, Amour-3.50 #10
2013: 12 Years a Slave-4.70 #1 (Winner), Gravity-4.35 #3, Nebraska-4.30 #5
2014: Birdman-4.72 (Winner) #1, The Imitation Game-4.06 #7
2015: Spotlight-4.41 (Winner) #3, Room-3.50 #11
2016: Moonlight-4.82 #1 (Winner), La La Land 4.48 #2, Manchester by the Sea-3.95 #4, Arrival-3.88 #7
2017: The Shape of Water-4.50 #1 (Winner), Lady Bird-4.20 #5, Darkest Hour-3.85 #8
2018: Roma-4.74 #1, The Favourite-3.90 #6
THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE IS COMING ON THURSDAY...YOUR RATING DEADLINE IS TOMORROW EVENING.
OSCAR AND TFF: A HISTORY PROJECT PART TWO
Picking up where I left off last week...here's the continuation of my project to chart every Oscar nominee in the 21 feature categories that played at the Telluride Film Festival since the first TFF in 1974. As I move forward with this I will be posting in five year increments.
So today we move to the latter half of the 80's. The number of nominations and wins are indicated in parentheses for each year.
1985 (2)
Colonel Redl- Foreign Language
The Journey of Natty Gann- Costumes
1986 (3)
Blue Velvet- Director-David Lynch
The Decline of the American Empire- Foreign Language
My Secret Little Village- Foreign Language
1987 (4/1)
Babette's Feast-Foreign Language- WON (first win for Best Foreign Film from TFF)
Au Revoir Les Enfants- Foreign Language, Original Screenplay
The Whales of August- Supporting Actress-Ann Sothern
1988 (2)
Salaam Bombay- Foreign Language
Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown- Foreign Language
1989 (6/2)
My Left Foot- Actor-Daniel Day Lewis-WON (first Best Actor win from TFF) , Supporting Actress- Brenda Fricker-WON (first win for Best Supporting Actress from TFF) , Picture, Director-Jim Sheridan, Adapted Screenplay
Cinema Paradiso-Foreign Language-WON
Super Chief: The Life and Legacy of Earl Warren- Documentary (First TFF with multiple Oscar wins)
On Thursday, I'll have the TFF Oscar history from 1990-1994.
TRAILERS AND SUCH FROM TFF #46 FILMS
Since last Thursday's post we have seen the emergence of a trailer as well as a behind-the-scene featurette and a clip from TFF #46 films. Here they are:
TRAILER FOR WAVES
FEATURETTE FOR JUDY
CLIP FROM BILLIE
The word is that we can also expect a new trailer for Ford v. Ferrari very soon.
RE-THINKING THIS PROJECT
Now that TFF #46 is in the rear view...
This year's experience at TFF was different for a variety of reasons not the least of which was the decision by the Festival to deny my annual request to be accredited as a journalist. I had been granted that status for eight years running and it became particularly useful in 2017 and 2018 as my pass status changed from the Patron Pass that had been a gift from former students who also hosted us in Telluride.
As you all know, that Patron Pass was a Golden Ticket. When that situation changed in 2017 (and, in fairness, I had known that would be the case for a number of years) the journalist credential became very important. It doesn't afford quite the same ease of access as a Patron Pass but it gets close.
I don't know why the request was denied but I have a couple of pretty good guesses. At the top of the list are posts that may not have been well received by the fest folks. And, of course, I have no doubt that the fest does not care for the central organizing principle of the blog...sussing out the possible films that will make the lineup before they're announced each year.
The festival explained in the email that denied the press credential that I was welcome to apply for the journalist accreditation again next year, but there is no guarantee that I get approved. And I fully understand and acknowledge that the fest has every right to accredit who gets the credential and who doesn't. I get that.
Further, I get how whiny this sounds. Privileged and whiny. For the vast majority of folks who attend with the Festival, Acme or Cinephile passes or who stand by in the individual ticket sales lines...this must seem, and understandably so, like just so much unearned grumpiness.
Yea...I get that too.
And yet, the whining continues...
I did eight films this year. My average has been 11.
Other considerations...
As all of you know...Festival level passes are pricey (and required for anyone requesting journalist status) and lodging in Telluride is, let's say... a challenge both in terms of cost and availability. Many of you know that my real gig is teaching at a public high school in Oklahoma...so you probably have a reasonable notion of my annual income.
Then there's the time and miles. It's a lot.
I will say that it is heartening to speak to readers on line and around town. I honestly don't know how many people read the thing but it seems like a bunch. I also am pleased at the number of times one of the journalists (you know, the accredited ones) that come into town to cover the fest pass along the value that they place on the blog via email, Twitter or in person at the fest. I have often wondered at what level, if any, the blog gets read by Guests of the fest. I know that it happens at least a little bit because of a couple of past experiences.
As I've said on a number of occasions, when I first started this thing, I really didn't know if anyone would ever read it and, even if they did, whether anyone would take it seriously.
I just know that I felt untethered and lost last week and I'm not sure what I do to change that between now and next Labor Day or, more accurately, between now and when passes go on sale.
I have heard and seen in print this effort described as a "passion project" and it has been but the passion took a hit this year and I'm not sure where that lands me over the next few months.
Bottom line...maybe nothing changes...maybe it all changes. At this point it's all up in the air (Jason Reitman/George Clooney TFF #36 reference).
Thanks for letting me ramble.
That's today's MTFB. More to come on Thursday including THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE. Your deadline to rate TFF #46 films is tomorrow evening!
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
The time has come...to all of you with an interest, for you followers of this space to express your collective evaluation of the films that made an appearance at the Telluride Film Festival. As most of you know, I'd like you to rate the films you saw this past weekend on a scale of 1 to 5 with 1 being "Not So Good" and 5 being "Glorious!"
As a matter of fact, I have several that came in overnight. The ratings are afoot!
You can deliver your ratings using any of the contact methods listed below.
The cutoff date for submission for The People's Telluride is one week from today...so get those ratings in by Tuesday, Sept. 10th.
HOME AGAIN
As has become my custom, I jetted out of Telluride right after stopping by TFF's Labor Day picnic. The drive back home runs right at 10 hours with stops along the way for this and that. We also add the hour back that we gained with the move from Central to Mountain time...so it was a long day and a late night. I'm a little fried this early morning.
This year's fest was a little different for me. Mt pass situation was different due to the change in media status. I knew that would mean I'd get to fewer films and that was the case. Most years I average 10-11 films, this year I got in eight (in the order I saw them):
The Aeronauts
The Climb
Uncut Gems
The Report
Waves
Motherless Brooklyn
Marriage Story
Parasite
Regrets that I didn't catch Ford v. Ferrari, The Two Popes or A Hidden Life but I'll get them in.
By the end of the weekend, it seemed to me that two films were dominating the buzz and it will interesting to see if The People's Telluride bears out what I was hearing.
Thanks to everyone who was kind enough to say a word or two to me in lines throughout the weekend. It's always gratifying to hear that this thing is valued by TFF attendees.
THE PROFESSIONALS TELLURIDE
Coming soon. The Pros have already started sending me their ratings so be looking for their collective response soon. Additionally, as I've been doing for some time now, the third part of the TFF ratings triad will come with The Composite Telluride when I combine the ratings for both groups.
That'll do for this early Tuesday...more on Thursday!
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
Yesterday I wrote a little bit about rumors swirling that a secret film would screen at Telluride this week. My list of what that might be was as follows:
1) None of the rumors are true and there is no surprise screening at all.
2) Todd Haynes Project (Dark Waters or Dry Run or...being snarky now...Dry Water or Dark Run or Dry Dark Water Run)
3) Nomadland
4) Little Women
5) Ad Astra
6) Joker
7) Bombshell
8) El Camino/Breaking Bad
For about three hours yesterday afternoon several of us that play this game thought we had the rumored secret figured out as Focus Features announced that Todd Haynes' Dark Waters has been dated for release. Deadline.com was the first to report the film will be in limited release on Nov. 22nd. The story also revealed that the film has been titled Dark Waters which, as far as I know, is the first definitive reference to the film's title. Dry Run had also been bandied about as a possible title.
A lot of film Twitter made clear that they viewed this as a likely "tell" that the film is probable for Telluride's lineup that will be officially unveiled on Thursday.
Then early on Monday evening came Indiewire's story about the Dark Waters release written by Anne Thompson. Anne's story included this passage:
"The movie (Dark Waters), which co-stars Tim Robbins and Bill Pullman, will not be ready in time for the earlier fall film festivals, but might turn up at AFI Fest in November. Focus will open the movie limited November 22, with expansion a week later."
I have to believe Anne has the lowdown straight on this.
So...what does it mean?
1) The #1 possibility I listed above still looks like my best guess...I.E. no film plays as a surprise.
Then with the Thompson story in mind, we drop Dark Waters down to the last possibility and the rest of the guesses look like this:
2) Nomadland
3) Little Women
4) Ad Astra
5) Joker
6) Bombshell
7) El Camino/Breaking Bad
8) Dark Waters
Each year since 2012 I have polled a list of industry professionals at the conclusion of the fest to rate the films they saw on a 1-5 scale just like I ask you readers to do and over the years many, many people have been kind enough to share their thoughts about them. This year's crew of Professionals is a large one. I think the largest collection of pros since I started doing this. The list is also Deeeep!
So, my huge thanks to the following who have agreed to rate this year and a special shout out to Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter and Sasha Stone of Awards Daily who were part of that first 2012 group and, I believe, the only two who have participated every year.
Here's this year's list of Professionals:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
J. Don Birnam-Jorge T/SplashReport.com
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Marshall Flores/Awards Daily
Mark Johnson/Awards Circuit
Gary Kramer/Salon
Tomris Laffly/RogerEbert.com
Scott Menzel/We Live Entertainment
Kenny Miles/We Live Entertainment
Mark Neglia/Next Best Picture
Eugene Novikov/Rotten Tomatoes
John Rhodes/Screencraft
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
Chris Willman/Variety
Anonymous
I'll have the ratings compiled and ready for posting about a week after the fest closes.
CIRCUIT BREAKER PODCAST
In Awards Circuit's Circuit Breaker podcast they launch into a full examination of Telluride specific discussion just before the 40 min. mark. They also mention the blog you're currently reading.
For the eighth consecutive year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride. All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".
Report your ratings with any of the following contact methods:
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
It's Monday and I hope your weekend was outstanding!
THE PROFESSIONALS' TELLURIDE
Here's is your 2018 installment of The Professionals view of the films that played the 44th Telluride Film Festival. 14 industry journalists participated this year by rating each film they saw on a 1-5 scale. They were:
Peter DeBruge/Variety
David Ehrlich/Indiwire
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Stephen Galloway/The Hollywood Reporter
Gary Kramer/Salon
Mark Johnson/Awards Circuit
Tomris Laffly/RogerEbert.com
Kenny Miles/We Live Entertainment
Eugene Novikov/Film Blather
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
Anonymous
Last year The Pros had The Shape of Water out front with a 4.50 average followed by two films which tied for the second spot; Faces Places and Loveless which both averaged 4.25.
In 2016 , Moonlight was on top with a 4.87 average followed by La La Land at 4.58.
In 2015, the top film was Son of Saul at 4.44 with Anomalisa second with a 4.42.
In 2014, number one was Birdman at 4.72 and second was Foxcatcher at 4.63.
2013: 12 Years a Slave 4.70 and Blue is the Warmest Color 4.40
2012: Central Park Five 4.7 and Argo 4.5
The top ten rated films in by the Professionals since I began them in 2012:
1) Moonlight (4.87) (16)
2) Birdman (4.72) (14)
3) 12 Years a Slave (4.70-tie) (13)
3) Central Park Five (4.70-tie) (12)
5) Foxcatcher (4.63) (14)
6) La La Land (4.58) (16)
7) Argo (4.50-tie) (12)
7) The Shape of Water (4.50) (17)
9) Son of Saul (4.44) (15)
10) Anomalisa (4.42) (15)
13 of the 33 fetaures for the 45th edition of The SHOW were evaluated by enough of the Pros to merit averaging their ratings. Here are those results:
1) Roma (4.73)
2) First Man (4.17)
3) Cold War (4.14-tie)
3) Free Solo (4.14-tie)
5) Can You Ever Forgive Me ? (4.11)
6) The Favourite (3.90)
7) Watergate (3.60)
8) Border (3.50)
9) Destroyer (3.25)
10) Boy Erased (3.20)
11) The Old Man and the Gun (3.17)
12) White Boy Rick (3.06)
13) The Front Runner (3.05)
That also means that Roma moves onto the Top Ten form the Pros since 2012. Roma moves to #2 ahead of Birdman by 1/100th of a point and bumps Anomalisa from the list.
Here's the new Pros Top Ten:
1) Moonlight (4.87) (16)
2) Roma (4.73) (18)
3) Birdman (4.72) (14)
4) 12 Years a Slave (4.70-tie) (13)
4) Central Park Five (4.70-tie) (12)
6) Foxcatcher (4.63) (14)
7) La La Land (4.58) (16)
8) Argo (4.50-tie) (12)
8) The Shape of Water (4.50-tie) (17)
10) Son of Saul (4.44) (15)
Coming on Monday: THE COMPOSITE TELLURIDE...the combination of The People and The Professionals.
THE EARLY OSCAR LANDSCAPE
I did a quick inventory of Sasha Stone's (Awards Daily), Scott Feinberg's (The Hollywood Reporter) and Clayton Davis' (Awards Circuit) early, early mostly post-fest (TFF, Venice, Toronto) takes on their views with regard to the Oscar races. They took their first stabs at the six major categories (Picture, Director and the acting categories at the end of the week last week with Sasha's first Forecast Friday, Scott's first Feinberg Forecast and Clayton's weekly updated predictions.
Focusing on films that played TFF #45 here's what the two Oscar pundits are saying:
Stone:
First Man leads the field with five nominations according to Stone: Best Picture, Direction, Actor Supporting Actress and Supporting Actor (Jason Clarke-who is going to to be one of the peeps that I am personally rooting for).
Boy Erased is next with three: Best Actor, Supporting Actress and Supporting Actor (Crowe) Fienberg doesn't have Boy Erased listed at the front runner level in any category.
Four films are at two nominations according to Stone in the six major categories:
Roma: Best Picture, Direction
Can You Ever Forgive Me? Best Picture, Actress
The Old Man and the Gun: Actor and Supporting Actress
The Favourite: Actress (Colman), Supporting Actress (Stone)
Feinberg has four films bunched with four nominations from among the films that played TFF #45:
First Man: Best Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress
Roma: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress
The Favourite: Best Picture, Actress (Colman), Supporting Actress (both Stone and Weisz)
Feinberg also has Cold War listed as a Best Picture front runner but not as a probable short lister for Best Foreign Language Film.
Feinberg also has Hugh Jackman as a front runner for Best Actor for The Front Runner and Melissa McCarthy for Best Actress for Can You Ever Forgive Me?
For Davis' part the lay of the land looks like this for Telluride films in the major six categories:
First Man tops the list with four: Best Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress
Next are The Favourite and Can You Ever Forgive Me? with three each
The Favourite: Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Colman) - no nominations in Supporting Actress for either Stone or Weisz)
Can You Ever Forgive Me?: Best Picture, Actress and Supporting Actor
Three films for TFF #45 get two nominations in the major six categories according to Davis:
Roma: Best Picture, Direction
Boy Erased: Best Picture, Supporting Actress
The Old Man and the Gun: Actor, Supporting Actress
Complete predictions from each expert are linked below
The Grolsch Audience Award for favorite film at the Toronto International Film Festival ended up being a surprise as Peter Farrelly's Green Book took the top spot. Barry Jenkins' If Beale Street Could Talk was the first runner-up and Alfonso Cuaron's Roma was second runner-up.
Many, including myself, were surprised that Bradley Cooper's A Star Is Born didn't land the award or even crack the top three.
One other TFF #45 title made waves as Free Solo was named Best Documentary.
