Monday, September 17, 2018

The Professionals' Telluride / The Early Oscar Landscape / Toronto Awards Green Book

It's Monday and I hope your weekend was outstanding!



THE PROFESSIONALS' TELLURIDE



Here's is your 2018 installment of The Professionals view of the films that played the 44th Telluride Film Festival.  14 industry journalists participated this year by rating each film they saw on a 1-5 scale.  They were:

Peter DeBruge/Variety
David Ehrlich/Indiwire
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Stephen Galloway/The Hollywood Reporter
Gary Kramer/Salon
Mark Johnson/Awards Circuit
Tomris Laffly/RogerEbert.com
Kenny Miles/We Live Entertainment
Eugene Novikov/Film Blather
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
Anonymous

Last year The Pros had The Shape of Water out front with a 4.50 average followed by two films which tied for the second spot; Faces Places and Loveless which both averaged 4.25.
In 2016 , Moonlight was on top with a 4.87 average followed by La La Land at 4.58.
In 2015, the top film was Son of Saul at 4.44 with Anomalisa second with a 4.42.
In 2014, number one was Birdman at 4.72 and second was Foxcatcher at 4.63.
2013: 12 Years a Slave 4.70 and Blue is the Warmest Color 4.40
2012: Central Park Five 4.7 and Argo 4.5

The top ten rated films in by the Professionals since I began them in 2012:

1) Moonlight (4.87) (16)
2) Birdman (4.72) (14)
3) 12 Years a Slave (4.70-tie) (13)
3) Central Park Five (4.70-tie) (12)
5) Foxcatcher (4.63) (14)
6) La La Land (4.58) (16)
7) Argo (4.50-tie) (12)
7) The Shape of Water (4.50) (17)
9) Son of Saul (4.44) (15)
10) Anomalisa (4.42) (15)



13 of the 33 fetaures for the 45th edition of The SHOW were evaluated by enough of the Pros to merit averaging their ratings.  Here are those results:



1) Roma (4.73)
2) First Man (4.17)
3) Cold War (4.14-tie)
3) Free Solo (4.14-tie)
5) Can You Ever Forgive Me ? (4.11)
6) The Favourite (3.90)
7) Watergate (3.60)
8) Border (3.50)
9) Destroyer (3.25)
10) Boy Erased (3.20)
11) The Old Man and the Gun (3.17)
12) White Boy Rick (3.06)
13) The Front Runner (3.05)


That also means that Roma moves onto the Top Ten form the Pros since 2012.  Roma moves to #2 ahead of Birdman by 1/100th of a point and bumps Anomalisa from the list.

Here's the new Pros Top Ten:

1) Moonlight (4.87) (16)
2) Roma (4.73) (18)
3) Birdman (4.72) (14)
4) 12 Years a Slave (4.70-tie) (13)
4) Central Park Five (4.70-tie) (12)
6) Foxcatcher (4.63) (14)
7) La La Land (4.58) (16)
8) Argo (4.50-tie) (12)
8) The Shape of Water (4.50-tie) (17)
10) Son of Saul (4.44) (15)


Coming on Monday: THE COMPOSITE TELLURIDE...the combination of The People and The Professionals.


THE EARLY OSCAR LANDSCAPE



I did a quick inventory of Sasha Stone's (Awards Daily), Scott Feinberg's (The Hollywood Reporter) and Clayton Davis' (Awards Circuit) early, early mostly post-fest (TFF, Venice, Toronto) takes on their views with regard to the Oscar races. They took their first stabs at the six major categories (Picture, Director and the acting categories at the end of the week last week with Sasha's first Forecast Friday, Scott's first Feinberg Forecast and Clayton's weekly updated predictions.

Focusing on films that played TFF #45 here's what the two Oscar pundits are saying:

Stone:



First Man leads the field with five nominations according to Stone: Best Picture, Direction, Actor Supporting Actress and Supporting Actor (Jason Clarke-who is going to to be one of the peeps that I am personally rooting for).

Boy Erased is next with three: Best Actor, Supporting Actress and Supporting Actor (Crowe)  Fienberg doesn't have Boy Erased listed at the front runner level in any category.

Four films are at two nominations according to Stone in the six major categories:

Roma: Best Picture, Direction
Can You Ever Forgive Me? Best Picture, Actress
The Old Man and the Gun: Actor and Supporting Actress
The Favourite: Actress (Colman), Supporting Actress (Stone)

Feinberg has four films bunched with four nominations from among the films that played TFF #45:

First Man: Best Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress
Roma: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress
The Favourite: Best Picture, Actress (Colman), Supporting Actress (both Stone and Weisz)

Feinberg also has Cold War listed as a Best Picture front runner but not as a probable short lister for Best Foreign Language Film.

Feinberg also has Hugh Jackman as a front runner for Best Actor for The Front Runner and Melissa McCarthy for Best Actress for Can You Ever Forgive Me?

For Davis' part the lay of the land looks like this for Telluride films in the major six categories:

First Man tops the list with four: Best Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress

Next are The Favourite and Can You Ever Forgive Me? with three each

The Favourite: Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Colman) - no nominations in Supporting Actress for either Stone or Weisz)

Can You Ever Forgive Me?: Best Picture, Actress and Supporting Actor

Three films for TFF #45 get two nominations in the major six categories according to Davis:

Roma: Best Picture, Direction
Boy Erased: Best Picture, Supporting Actress
The Old Man and the Gun: Actor, Supporting Actress

Complete predictions from each expert are linked below

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit



TORONTO AWARDS GREEN BOOK




The Grolsch Audience Award for favorite film at the Toronto International Film Festival ended up being a surprise as Peter Farrelly's Green Book took the top spot.  Barry Jenkins' If Beale Street Could Talk was the first runner-up and Alfonso Cuaron's Roma was second runner-up.

Many, including myself, were surprised that Bradley Cooper's A Star Is Born didn't land the award or even crack the top three.

One other TFF #45 title made waves as Free Solo was named Best Documentary.

Here's the Indiewire story about the TIFF awards.


That's a wrap for this MOnday.  I'll have more Thursday including this year's COMPOSITE TELLURIDE.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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