Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Supporting Actor updated since I last posted this category on Nov. 5th. A performer's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses. TFF #47 performers are indicated in Bold.
1) Leslie Odom, Jr./One Night in Miami (3)
2) Sacha Baron Cohen/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (1)
3) Bill Murray/On the Rocks (4)
4) Mark Rylance/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (5)
5) Chadwick Boseman/Da 5 Bloods (2)
6) David Startharin/Nomadland (6)
7) Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah (8)
8) Stanley Tucci/Supernova (-)
9) Frank Langella/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (9)
10) Yahya Abdul-Mateen II/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (-)
Others: Eddie Redmayne/The Trial of the Chicago 7, Charles Dance/Mank, Arliss Howard/Mank, Thomas Pelphrey/Mank
Hot: Odom/One Night in Miami, Tucci/Supernova, Abdul-Mateen II/Trial of the Chicago 7
Not: Boseman/Da 5 Bloods
INDIEWIRE"S TOP 20 and TFF
Indiewire's Eric Kohn has posted his selection of the 20 best films for 2020 and the list contains films that played at TFF #46 as well as films that were on the TFF #47 announced list. TFF films that were on Kohn's list are:
SUBMISSIONS ARE IN FOR OSCAR'S INTERNATIONAL FILMS
The deadline has come and gone for submission for International Film Oscar submissions. As you might expect, some TFF #47 choices were submitted. Gregory Ellwood of The Playlist has handicapped the field and among the more likely players for an Oscar nomination in his assessment are these TFF #47 selections:
Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Direction updated since I last posted this category on Sept. 21st. A director's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses. TFF #47 films are indicated in Bold.
1) Chloe Zhao/Nomadland (1)
2) David Fincher/Mank (2)
3) Aaron Sorkin/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (4)
4) Regina King/One Night in Miami (7)
5) Florian Zeller/The Father (6)
6) Spike Lee/Da 5 Bloods (5)
7) Lee Isaac Chung/Minari (10)
8) Paul Greengrass/News of the World (3)
9) George C. Wolfe/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (9)
10)Shaka King/Judas and the Black Messiah (8)
Others: Christopher Nolan/Tenet
Hot: Regina King, Lee Isaac Chung
Not: Paul Greengrass, Shaka King, Francis Lee, Sophia Coppola
Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Picture, Director and Screenplays. TFF #46 films are indicated in Bold.
BEST PICTURE (last updated 12/16)
1) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (1)
2) The Irishman (2)
3) Parasite (3)
4) 1917 (4)
5) Marriage Story (5)
6) Jojo Rabbit (6)
7) Joker (7)
8) Ford v Ferrari (8)
9) Bombshell (-)
10) The Two Popes (9)
Other possibles: The Farewell, Little Women. Knives Out
BEST DIRECTION (last updated 12/9)
1) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time... (2)
2) Bong Joon-ho/Parasite (4)
3) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman (3)
4) Sam Mendes/1917 (1)
5) Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story (5)
6) Todd Phillips/Joker (-)
Other possibles: James Mangold/Ford v Ferrari, Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit, Fernando Merrielle's/The Two Popes
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (last updated 12/9)
1) The Irishman (1)
2) Jojo Rabbit (3)
3) The Two Popes (2)
4) Little Women (5)
5) Joker (4)
6) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (6)
Other possibles: Hustlers, Richard Jewell, Just Mercy, Dolemite Is My Name
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (last updated 12/9)
1) Marriage Story (1)
2) Once Upon a Time... (2)
3) Parasite (3)
4) The Farewell (4)
5) Knives Out (5)
6) Uncut Gems (6)
Other possibles: Bombshell, 1917, Pain and Glory, Ford v Ferrari
LATEST GURUS OF GOLD
Movie City News has posted its latest edition of the Gurus of Gold focused on the Big Eight categories of Best Picture, Direction, all four Acting categories as well as both screenplay categories.
As mentioned here before, I'm serving my second year as a Guru. Also included as Gurus this year are some Oscar predicting heavyweights: Sasha Stone of Awards Daily, Dave Karger of Turner Classic Movies and IMDb, Peter Howell of The Toronto Star, Jeff Sneider of Collider, Gregory Ellwood of The Playlist and Mark Johnson of Awards Watch among others.
You might notice that my Guru picks and my own posted on the blog here today may not line up exactly...Why? Time. My Guru picks were sent in a few days ago, whereas I worked on the freshest picks for today's blog post yesterday and this morning.
AN MTFB FIRST
Well...what do you know?
I've been plugging away at this Blog thing since August of 2008. Lots of cool things have happened as a result of this little experience but had a first this week.
I had an Oscar screener land in my email this week. No...no...it's not Little Women or 1917...
It's a link for a short listed Oscar Short form Documentary film. The film: Yo Seung-Jun's In the Absence. The description included in the email describes the focus of the doc as follows:
"When the passenger ferry MV Sewol sank off the coast of South Korea in 2014, over three hundred people lost their lives, most of them schoolchildren. Years later, the victims’ families and survivors are still demanding justice from national authorities."
According to accompanying material the film screened at DOC NYC and AFI Docs.
Oscar winner Laura Poitras (Citizen Four) is one of the Executive Producers of the film.
I plan to get it in over the holiday break. I'll get back to you about it soon.
TRAILER FOR THE CLIMB
Sony Pictures Classics has released a trailer for low key buddy dramedy The Climb. The film had a modest reception at Telluride. It's set for release on Mar. 20th. Here's the trailer from YouTube:
TAPLEY PODCASTS BAUMBACH
Kris Tapley has put together another of his series of podcasts for Netflix under the name of The Call Sheet. The latest features an outing with Marriage Story director and scribe Noah Baumbach.
The time has come...to all of you with an interest, for you followers of this space to express your collective evaluation of the films that made an appearance at the Telluride Film Festival. As most of you know, I'd like you to rate the films you saw this past weekend on a scale of 1 to 5 with 1 being "Not So Good" and 5 being "Glorious!"
As a matter of fact, I have several that came in overnight. The ratings are afoot!
You can deliver your ratings using any of the contact methods listed below.
The cutoff date for submission for The People's Telluride is one week from today...so get those ratings in by Tuesday, Sept. 10th.
HOME AGAIN
As has become my custom, I jetted out of Telluride right after stopping by TFF's Labor Day picnic. The drive back home runs right at 10 hours with stops along the way for this and that. We also add the hour back that we gained with the move from Central to Mountain time...so it was a long day and a late night. I'm a little fried this early morning.
This year's fest was a little different for me. Mt pass situation was different due to the change in media status. I knew that would mean I'd get to fewer films and that was the case. Most years I average 10-11 films, this year I got in eight (in the order I saw them):
The Aeronauts
The Climb
Uncut Gems
The Report
Waves
Motherless Brooklyn
Marriage Story
Parasite
Regrets that I didn't catch Ford v. Ferrari, The Two Popes or A Hidden Life but I'll get them in.
By the end of the weekend, it seemed to me that two films were dominating the buzz and it will interesting to see if The People's Telluride bears out what I was hearing.
Thanks to everyone who was kind enough to say a word or two to me in lines throughout the weekend. It's always gratifying to hear that this thing is valued by TFF attendees.
THE PROFESSIONALS TELLURIDE
Coming soon. The Pros have already started sending me their ratings so be looking for their collective response soon. Additionally, as I've been doing for some time now, the third part of the TFF ratings triad will come with The Composite Telluride when I combine the ratings for both groups.
That'll do for this early Tuesday...more on Thursday!
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
The Aeronauts...generally very good, very entertaining. The action set pieces are stunning and extremely well executed. I'd recommend it the rest of this weekend.
The Climb...starts strong then loses its way.
Day Two...Saturday
TBA's
Galaxy
• 10:30 PM: JUDY, program number 1a, Cinephile
Herzog
• 10:30 PM: PARASITE, 24, Cinephile
SOH
• 3:30 PM: SOROS with Q&A, D, Cinephile
Masons
• 8:30 PM: THE GIFT: THE JOURNEY OF JOHNNY CASH with Q&A, F, Cinephile
• 10:30 PM: GREAT EXPECTATIONS with Q&A, 43, Cinephile
Noon Seminar, Elks Park FREE
Sponsored by Participant Media
Moderated by Annette Insdorf
How do portraits of the artist present layers of performance?
With Antonio Banderas, Willem Dafoe, Guy Pearce, and Jonathan Pryce.
MY DAY TWO...
Netflix Docs Brunch
Then, probably Uncut Gems
Possibly The Report
In addition to that...not sure.
TRAILER FOR THE TWO POPES
NEW RUMOR
Twitter last night...David Poland suggesting:
A) There will be a surprise screening
B) It will be Armando Iannucci's The Personal History of David Copperfield
Here it is...the final list of 25 films/programs that I expect to play the 46th Telluride Film Festival. The actual announcement should come sometime tomorrow morning and, of course, I'll have it here for you before I take off for the San Juans myself. I expect to be in T-ride around 10 MDT tomorrow night. In alphabetical order...Here we go...
1) The Aeronauts
2) Beanpole
3) The Climb
4) Country Music
5) Family Romance LLC
6) First Cow
7) Ford v Ferrari
8) A Hidden Life
9) Inside Bill's Brain: Decoding Bill Gates
10) Judy
11) The Kingmaker
12) Linda Ronstadt: The Sound of My Voice
13) Lyrebird
14) Marriage Story
15) Motherless Brooklyn
16) Pain and Glory
17) Parasite
18) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
19) The Report
20) The Truth
21) The Two Popes
22 ) Uncut Gems
23) Varda by Agnes
24) Verdict
25) Waves
Other Possibles: The Assistant, The Gift: The Journey of Johnny Cash, Dark Waters, Little Women, The Good Liar, Nomadland, Ad Astra, Molly, Matthias and Maxime, 1917, Bombshell, Wasp Network, Chicuarotes, No One Left Behind, Gemini Man, Mr. Jones, Antlers.
TRIBUTE CLUES
I got a number of anonymous tips over the past few days which told me that the pre-fest screenings in Elks Park have been revealed in Telluride. As many of you know, those films usually offer clues about who is probably being tributed at The SHOW. The two key films are Bridget Jones' Diary and Star Wars:The Last Jedi. The informative flyer also confirms that there will be some screening of Ken Burns' Country Music documentary will take place this weekend as well.
The free screenings suggest that two of your tributes this year will go to Renee Zellweger- who's Judy is sure to be screening and also Adam Driver who has both Marriage Story and The Report set to be part of The SHOW.
As to the third probable tribute...I have heard on background conflicting suggestions about that and consequently don't have a good enough handle on it to make any bold prediction.
LATE BREAKING... It appears the third tribute is for Philip Kaufman according to the Telluride Daily Planet:
Also note the "Special Screening" on Saturday night.
SOOOO....WHAT DO I WANT TO SEE?
The Aeronauts
Ford v. Ferrari
The Climb
Parasite
The Report
Motherless Brooklyn
Marriage Story
A Hidden Life
Waves
The Two Popes
Full lineup revealed tomorrow morning and I'll have it here.
THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE
For the eighth consecutive year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride. All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".
Report your ratings with any of the following contact methods:
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
Well, a week has gone by and there is a bit of movement and shuffling regarding the Ten Bets.
Here's what the first installment looked like a week ago:
10) The Good Liar
9) Little Women
8) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
7) Jojo Rabbit
6) Family Romance LLC
5) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
4) Lucy in the Sky
3) Varda by Agnes
2) Nomadland
1) Parasite
Other films in serious play: The Goldfinch, Untitled Noah Baumbach Project, Untitled Todd Haynes Project, Atlantics, The Climb, The Laundromat, Radioactive, Country Music, The Lighthouse, Harriet, The Truth, Synonyms, Motherless Brooklyn, Ad Astra.
And here is the latest Ten Bets...
10) Jojo Rabbit
9) The Good Liar
8) Nomadland
7) Untitled Noah Baumbach Project
6) The Climb
5) Little Women
4) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
3) Family Romance LLC
2) Varda by Agnes
1) Parasite
Other films in serious play: The Goldfinch, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Untitled Todd Haynes Project, Atlantics, The Laundromat, Radioactive, Country Music, The Lighthouse, Harriet, The Truth, Synonyms, Motherless Brooklyn, Ad Astra, Molly, Lucy in the Sky.
COUNTRY MUSIC AT THE RYMAN
We've been following the growing anticipation for Ken Burn's newest documentary on the history and reach of country music in America. We have known that the 8 part series will kick off on PBS on Sept. 15th. I have been thinking for some time that we'd have a good chance to see some of the doc at TFF #45. Now, I have a guess as to how that will happen and what form it might take.
I knew that the Doc's crew had recorded an evening of performances and reminiscences at The Ryman Auditorium (home of The Grand Ole Opry) in Nashville on March 27th. I had assumed some of that footage would make its way into the doc and perhaps it will. What I also discovered over the last day or two is that PBS is going to air the concert on Sept. 8th-a week before the full doc hits the network.
So, my guess at this point is that Telluride attendees have the chance the concert footage during Labor Day weekend.
I tumbled across the news in an article describing the concert from SoulCountry.net. That article, which is fairly detailed in its description of the evening, is linked here.
FOCUSING ON TORONTO AND VENICE
I was reminded in a couple of places since Tuesday's post that we will begin to get some very serious insight as o films and which fests will have what in less that three weeks now. Toronto makes the first of its multiple announcements on June 23rd. That set of films will give us clues in terms of which films we've been tracking will likely play Telluride first and which ones won't play TFF at all. It's not a comprehensive list, however as the Toronto organizers will continue to roll out new announced films the four weeks following their initial announcement on June 23rd.
Venice announces on June 25th. Over the past few years, the Venetian announcement has served as a flag for films that could still play both in Venice and Telluride. Last year as astounding nine films shared screenings in both places. We'll get more clues about what this year's group of films that will be shared when Venice announces its actual screening schedule.
Stay tuned...
That's MTFB for the Fifth of July 2019. I'll have more on Monday.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
Welcome to this first summer 2019 Tuesday edition of MTFB...
THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: SONY PICTURES CLASSICS
Over the years I've been attending Telluride's Film Festival no other distribution company has placed more films at TFF than Sony Pictures Classics and it really isn't even close. Look at the SPC/TFF history over the past 16 years:
2018: The White Crow (1)
2017: A Fantastic Woman, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Foxtrot, Loveless, The Rider (5)
2016: The Eagle Huntress, Maudie, Norman, Toni Erdmann (4)
2015: Son of Saul (1)
2014: Foxcatcher, Leviathan, Red Army, Mr. Turner, Wild Tales, Salt of the Earth and Merchants of Doubt (7)
2013: The Invisible Woman, The Lunchbox, The Past, Tim's Vermeer and Jodorowsky's Dune (5)
2012: The Gatekeepers, At Any Price, Rust and Bone, No, Wadjda, Amour (6)
2011: A Dangerous Method, In Darkness, Footnote, A Separation (4)
2010: Incendies, Of Gods and Men, Tamara Drewe, Another Year, The Illusionist, Inside Job (6)
2009: The Last Station, The White Ribbon, Coco Before Chanel, A Prophet, An Education (5)
2008: Waltz with Bashir, I've Loved You So Long, O'Horten (3)
2007: Brick Lane, When Did You Last See Your Father, Persepolis, The Band's Visit, The Counterfeiters, Steep! (6)
2006: Jindabyne, The Lives of Others, Volver, The Italian (4)
2005: Breakfast on Pluto, Capote, Cache, The Child (4)
2004: Being Julia, House of Flying Daggers, Bad Education, Merchant of Venice, Up and Down, Yes (6)
2003: The Fog of War, My Life Without Me, The Triplets of Belleville, Young Adam (4)
That's 71 films over 16 festivals averaging an astonishing 4.4 films a year. Last year and 2015 were anomalies with only a single SPC film making the TFF lineup.
When I posted the SPC assessment last summer I only had then with two possibilities: Capernaum and The Fall of the American Empire. I listed Capernaum with a 60% chance at TFF and American Empire at 30% and, as you may remember, neither film played The SHOW.
In my defense, I did say in last summer's post that 2018 could be a year wherein SPC might only have a single film at Telluride and they didn't acquire distribution rights to Ralph Fiennes' The White Crow until August 13th, more than two months after I posted the SPC assessment.
This year, SPC looks likely to be back at TFF but probably not at the 4-5 film level. Right now, they list five films that I think could be in play. Three of those are films from Cannes plus a documentary and World War II drama.
The Cannes films are Pedro Almodovar's Pain and Glory, Ira Sachs' Frankie and Michael Covino's The Climb. Both the Almodovar and the Covino films were critically lauded at the French fest last month with Pain and Glory winning Best Actor for Antonio Banderas and The Climb winning a jury award in the Un Certain Regard section. Frankie did not fare as well with critics or jurors.
As I have written here a few times, Almodovar was a common invitee to TFF in the past but hasn't screened a film there since 2006's Volver. Perhaps Pain and Glory is the film that returns the Oscar winner to the San Juans.
The other two SPC films are a documentary about the life of musical legend John Prine entitled John Prine: Hello in There and the drama The Song of Names starring Clive Owen and Tim Roth. SPC acquired The Song of Names in April.
My assessment at the moment is actually that The Climb might be the front runner for SPC's chances to be on the Telluride list. Here's my best guestimate of the chances for each of the five films listed above to make The SHOW
The Climb 50%
Pain and Glory 40%
Frankie 30%
The Song of Names 30%
John Prine: Hello in There 20%
Thursday's distribution spotlight will shine on Fox Searchlight.
A LOOK AT THE WHISTLERS
Still from The Whistlers via The Playlist
In 2006 Corneliu Porumboiu screened his Cannes award winning film 12:08 East of Bucharest at the 30th Telluride Film Festival. He hasn't had a film return since.
That could change this year with his latest Cannes entrant The Whistlers. IMDb describes the film as a comedy and a crime film. The story centers on a policeman attempting to spring a crooked businessman from prison complicated by the need to use different languages.
The film played moderately well as a part of the Palme competition lineup at last month's Cannes fest but was not an award winner.
Earlier this week, a new international teaser trailer became available for the film. Here that is from YouTube:
The Playlist posted an extensive story on the film on May 18th for the film's Cannes debut. The post include multiple clips and stills from the film. That Playlist story is linked here.
The Whistlers does not have U.S. distribution at this point.
STONE'S FIRST ASSESSMENT
Sasha Stone, who has been a good friend to me over the years, has her first assessment of the Best Picture landscape for this year at her website Awards Daily.
Sasha also includes as a part of her review Best Pic sentiments from Anne Thompson of Indiewire and Erik Anderson of Awards Watch.
Sasha's list ultimately includes ten films most of which could potentially be a part of the TFF #46 lineup.
Among the ten films she lands on are: Scorsese's The Irishman, Tarantino's Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Gerwig's Little Women and Heller's A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.
