Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay updated since I last posted this category on Dec. 7th. A screenplay's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses. TFF #47 films are indicated in Bold.
1) Nomadland (1)
2) The Father (3)
3) One Night in Miami (2)
4) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (4)
5) News of the World (5)
6) First Cow (7)
7) I'm Thinking of Ending Things (6)
8) Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm (8)
9) The Mauritanian (-)
10) Pieces of a Woman (10)
Other Possibles: The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Midnight Sky, The White Tiger
Hot: The Mauritanian, First Cow
Not: Billie Holiday
I'll have a look at Original Screenplay on Monday.
INDIEWIRE LISTS: TOP 50 OF 2020
Indiewire posted its list of the best 50 films of 2020 according to the 200+ critics they surveyed. That story was posted on Jan. 5th. Among the 50 films were five films from either TFF #46 or the TFF #47 list of films that would have played the fest. Here's where those five films landed:
INDIEWIRE LISTS: CONTENDERS FOR BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Meanwhile, Indiewire's Anne Thompson published an updated selection of what she considers the frontrunners for the Best International Feature Oscar. Among her frontrunners are three films that would have been screening in Telluride last Labor Day had the fest occurred.
Thompson's list included:
Charlatan
Apples
Notturno.
The four other frontrunners she names include Another Round, I'm No Longer Here, Collective and My Little Sister.
Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Supporting Actor updated since I last posted this category on Nov. 5th. A performer's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses. TFF #47 performers are indicated in Bold.
1) Leslie Odom, Jr./One Night in Miami (3)
2) Sacha Baron Cohen/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (1)
3) Bill Murray/On the Rocks (4)
4) Mark Rylance/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (5)
5) Chadwick Boseman/Da 5 Bloods (2)
6) David Startharin/Nomadland (6)
7) Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah (8)
8) Stanley Tucci/Supernova (-)
9) Frank Langella/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (9)
10) Yahya Abdul-Mateen II/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (-)
Others: Eddie Redmayne/The Trial of the Chicago 7, Charles Dance/Mank, Arliss Howard/Mank, Thomas Pelphrey/Mank
Hot: Odom/One Night in Miami, Tucci/Supernova, Abdul-Mateen II/Trial of the Chicago 7
Not: Boseman/Da 5 Bloods
INDIEWIRE"S TOP 20 and TFF
Indiewire's Eric Kohn has posted his selection of the 20 best films for 2020 and the list contains films that played at TFF #46 as well as films that were on the TFF #47 announced list. TFF films that were on Kohn's list are:
SUBMISSIONS ARE IN FOR OSCAR'S INTERNATIONAL FILMS
The deadline has come and gone for submission for International Film Oscar submissions. As you might expect, some TFF #47 choices were submitted. Gregory Ellwood of The Playlist has handicapped the field and among the more likely players for an Oscar nomination in his assessment are these TFF #47 selections:
Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Picture updated since I last posted this category on Oct. 19th. A film's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses. TFF #47 films are indicated in Bold.
1) Nomadland (2)
2) Mank (3)
3) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (1)
4) The Father (5)
5) One Night in Miami (6)
6) Minari (10)
7) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (9)
8) Da 5 Bloods (7)
9) News of the World (4)
10) Soul (-)
Hot: Minari, Ma Rainey, Soul
Not: News of the World, Judas and the Black Messiah, Ammonite, On the Rocks, Tenet
TFF AND THE GOTHAMS
Gotham Award nominations were announced this past week. The Gothams are out of the gate as the first of 2020 end of year awards. The Gothams aim to recognize independent films. TFF #46 and #47 films were named to the list of nominees.
Kelly Reichardt's First Cow (TFF #46) led the field with four nominations: Best Feature, Best Screenplay, Best Actor (Joe Magaro) and Breakthrough Actor (Orion Lee).
TFF #46's The Assistant also was nominated for Best Feature.
TFF #46's Beanpole was nominated for Best International Feature.
TFF #47's Nomadland had nominations for Best Feature and Best Actress (Frances McDormand).
Some followers of MTFB know that I am a big fan of the late great Kurt Vonnegut. One of the highlights of my life was to catch a lecture from here back in February of 2003 at Oklahoma City University. I took a personal day to do it, which, if you know me, is such a rare occurrence. Usually the only time I use personal days to miss school is for TFF.
Got to see the man talk with a couple of my former students which, if you saw Vonnegut's standard lecture at the time, turned out to be very cool. The man asked the audience to remember a teacher from our past, so sitting with those "kids" was special.
All of that is to mention that it looks like the Robert B. Weide/Don Argott doc about Vonnegut will likely be released sometime next summer. The doc has been four decades in the making. The film has been acquired by IFC Films. No specific date has been set as yet.
Here's the brand new teaser for the film via YouTube:
Well, this is depressing. I can't say that I was surprised at the announcement but I can say that I thought that if this was the decision that I thought it might come a bit later. Nevertheless, I was in Oklahoma City with my wife, who was had a doctor's appointment (not Covid-19 related) when I got the news. Of course, it knocked the breath out of me.
Then my phone blew up.
Lots of reaching out between me and friends and colleagues social media, email amd direct messages.
Full disclosure here: I have been a bit "at sea" about the Blog's purpose and utility for the last year.
When TFF declined to accredit me as a journalist last year I wrote that I wasn't really sure about what I was going to do with it. Ultimately I decided to push on and essentially continue to do what I have been doing since 2008 with the notion that I'd re-evaluate this year and after re-applying for this year's fest.
Now, we're here and the fest has again denied my press accreditation request (I still haven't had an answer from them regarding the rationale for the denial for either last year or this). And now there is no TFF #47 to write about.
Normally, as you know, I'd be spending this next two months expanding the Ten Bets list and looking forward to the clues provided by announcements from Toronto, Venice and New York (all still on the schedule to happen). Then I'd be reporting on the fest itself followed by the six month runup to the Oscars and how Telluride films fared and affected that race. Now?
If you saw yesterday's "Special Post" you may have seen the section devoted to Variety's Peter DeBruge's interview with TFF Executive Director Julie Huntsinger then you know that she revealed that there's a possibility that a TFF #47 list of films that would have played is probably going to be released at some point "later this month". Huntsinger also revealed that the Tribute recipients had been chosen and were planning to physically attend.
Other questions...
*Is there a TFF #47 poster and artist?
*Who was the Guest Director going to be for 2020?
*Will next year's fest be labeled TFF #47 or #48?
*Did Peter DeBruge hint that Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch would have been on the Telluride lineup?
Meanwhile, Todd McCarthy writing for deadline yesterday notes that co-director Todd Luddy has said that TFF had about 20 films lined up and that the list of those will be forthcoming soon. From the McCarthy post:
"Festival co-director Tom Luddy, the only one of Telluride’s founding team still on board, said that the titles of about 20 would-have-been festival entries will be revealed in a few days. This will at least provide some insight into what key tastemakers regard as among the best films of the year, even if critics and the public will, at this point, have nothing to say in the matter."
My probable path for the next few weeks...
Continue the regular Monday/Thursday publishing schedule (there's certainly no reason for an increased publication schedule now) with the concept continuing to be sussing out what the T-ride lineup might have been. I'll probably also take a stab at guessing who the tributes might have included though there's no indication in the DeBruge article that we'll ever know who they were.
After the TFF #47 lineup that-might-have-been is announced...re-assessment...again.
As a weird counterpoint to the above...MTFB blew through its 600,000th view as a result of Monday's post. Over the 12 years that I've been doing this I have published 1803 (counting today's post) posts in addition to the various History and Oscar pages. That means that each post has averaged 333.14 views. Of course, some posts have-been hit more than others. The current front runner is from Jan. 4, 2018 in the run-up to the Oscar nominations announcement. It had 2616 views.
It seems odd and counter-intuitive to have a celebratory note in light of Tuesday's announcement but I'd be less than honest if I said that it didn't matter. As always, I'm stupefied that anyone has found and read the blog over these past few years. Again I want to thank everyone that takes the time to read my ramblings. Thanks to those of you that comment and email and message. Thanks to so many of you that have taken a moment to say hello during the actual fest itself. Thanks to the real journalists that have been so kind and welcoming at Telluride. And the biggest thanks goes to my wife who has out up with this time consuming passion project for more than a decade. She's got more patience than I do.
TFF #46 FILMS IN 2020
Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel has put together a compilation of over 100 critics and industry experts to name the best films of 2020 so far (Jordan was kind enough to invite my input but I wasn't able to get a list out together in time).
Elsa Keslassy writing for Variety reports this week that the Venice Film Fest is surveying a broad swath of people and entities that have been and potentially would be players for that fest that is currently slated to run from Sept. 2-12.
Writing in a story that was posted Tuesday, Keslassy says:
"The letter, which was signed by Venice’s artistic director Alberto Barbera and issued on Monday, is meant to gauge how many filmmakers, talent and producers are willing to turn up at the fest before a decision is taken at the end of the month on whether to maintain or cancel this year’s edition."
The article quotes Venice artistic director Alberto Barbera as saying in the letter:
“We all know that, most probably, any festival will not be able to take place exactly like it was in the past. We will have to deal with a number of limitations and security measures: reduction of the number of screened films and a similar decrease of attendance from press, industry and audience."
A couple of other notes from the story worth mentioning are that Venice may be softening an earlier line that suggested that no part of the fest would be conducted online and that Barnera is expected to get feedback by May 10th.
Venice's survey might serve as a template for others of the fall film fests to consider as they move forward in their attempts to go forward.
On the heels of an L.A. Times list of potential Oscar eligible films that I linked in Monday's post, Indiewire's Zack Sharf posted a list for consideration yesterday in a piece called "The 20 Best Movies Eligible for Oscars Right Now".
Sharf uses his crystal ball to assess films that would meet the new criteria established for this year's Academy Awards .
It has some interesting titles including a couple that played TFF #46. Those are: The Assistant and First Cow.
There are a few Sundance titles that under normal circumstances I would flatly rule out but these times are not normal circumstances. So...maybe????? Crip Camp, Miss Americana and Spaceship Earth.
Those that know me well know that I'm a ridiculous fan f Kurt Vonnegut and his literary canon (looking at you Chris Schneider). Yesterday, Whyaduck Productions and 9.14 Pictures dropped a trailer for a new documentary about the author and, as you might expect, I was thrilled. The title: Kurt Vonnegut: Unstuck in Time...other Vonnegut fans will appreciate the Slaughterhouse-Five reference in the film's title.
Here's the trailer from YouTube:
The film does not yet seem to have a distributor as yet nor a release date. So...hear my plea...Program this for TFF #47. Also, some distrib...pick this up.
The director, Robert Weide, has significant ties to Larry David's Curb Your Enthusiasm. He was Oscar nominated for Best Documentary Feature in 1998 for Lenny Bruce: Swear to Tell the Truth. That also earned a Primetime Emmy Award for his direction. Additionally, He won a DGA award for direction for Curb in 2012 and another for the HBO program: Palestinian Chicken. He also won a PGA award for and a Primetime Emmy producing Curb in 2000. He also was very involved with the PBS docu-series American Masters. The guy has some hardware.
Vonnegut appeared for a speaking engagement in Oklahoma City in February 2003 and I actually took a personal day to be there. I was lucky enough to run into a couple of former students and if you ever saw Vonnegut do his lecture, you know that he talks lovingly about teachers. It was more than special.
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their nominees this morning for the best in film and television for 2019. Here's how TFF #46 films fared:
Marriage Story (6): Best Picture/Drama, Best Actor/Adam Driver, Best Actress/Scarlett Johansson, Best Supporting Actress/Laura Dern, Screenplay, Score (Note: Marriage Story led the filed with its six nominations. The Irishman was next with five).
Parasite (3): Director, Foreign Film, Screenplay
Ford v Ferrari (1): Best Actor/Christian Bale
The Two Popes (4): Best Picture/ Drama, Best Actor/Jonathan Pryce, Best Supporting Actor/Anthony Hopkins, Screenplay
Pain and Glory (2): Best Actor/Antonio Banderas, Foreign Film
Portrait of a Lady on Fire: (1):Foreign Film
Judy (1): Best Actress/Renee Zellweger
The Report (1): Best Supporting Actress/Annette Bening
Martin Scorsese's The Irishman led all films with 14 Critics Choice nominations with Quentin Tarantino's Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood close behind with 12. Those were announced yesterday.
Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story led the TFF #46 entries in nominations with eight tied with 1917 as the fourth most nominated film. In all TFF #46 films earned 32 Critics Choice nominations.
Here's the breakdown of TFF #46 films nomination for Critics Choice Awards yesterday:
Marriage Story (8): Best Picture, Director/Noah Baumbach, Actress/Scarlett Johansson, Actor/Adam Driver, Laura Dern/Supporting Actress, Ensemble, Original Screenplay and Score.
Parasite (7): Best Picture, Best Foreign Film, Bong Joon-ho/Director, Ensemble, Original Screenplay, Editing and Production Design.
Ford v Ferrari (5): Best Picture, Best Action Picture, Cinematography, Editing and Visual Effects.
Uncut Gems (4): Best Picture, The Safdie Brothers/Director, Actor/Adam Sandler, Editing
Pain and Glory (2): Best Foreign Film, Actor/Antonio Banderas
Judy (2): Actress/Renee Zellweger, Makeup
The Two Popes (2): Supporting Actor/Anthony Hopkins, Adapted Screenplay
Also announcing their "Best Of" for 2019 yesterday was the Laos Angeles Film Critics Association. LAFCA traditionally names a winner in each category as well as a runner-up. In this years voting T46 films were named the Best in seven categories and runners-up in five other instances. Leading the way was Bong Joon-ho's Parasite which was named in five of the 12 spots. Here's the breakdown by TFF #46 film:
Parasite: Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor Song Kan-ho and runner-up for Screenplay and Production Design.
Pedro Almodovar's Pain and Glory was named Best Foreign Film and its star Antonio Banderas was named Best Actor.
Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story was named a couple of times. It was named Best Screenplay and Adam Driver was runner-up for Best Actor.
Portrait of a Lady on Fire was chosen as Best Cinematography and was also runner-up for Best Foreign Film.
The Safdie Brother's Uncut Gems was runner-up for Best Editing.
Updating my Oscar predictions for Best Picture, Director the Screenplay categories and Film Editing.
As always TFF #46 films are in Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) The Irishman (2)
2) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (1)
3) 1917 (3) 4) Parasite (4) 5) Marriage Story (5)
6) Jojo Rabbit (6) 7) Ford v Ferrari (9)
8) Joker (8) 9) The Two Popes (7)
10) The Farewell (10)
Other possibles: Dolemite Is My Name, Richard Jewell, Bombshell, Knives Out, Uncut Gems
BEST DIRECTOR
1) Sam Mendes/1917 (4)
2) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time... (1)
3) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman (3) 4) Bong Joon-ho/Parasite (2) 5) Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story (5) 6) James Mangold/Ford v Ferrari (-)
Other possibles: Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit, Fernando Meirelles/The Two Popes, Todd Phillips/Joker
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) The Irishman (3) 2) The Two Popes (1)
3) Jojo Rabbit (2)
4) Joker (4)
5) Little Women (5)
6) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (-)
Other possibles: Hustlers, Just Mercy, Richard Jewell
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Marriage Story (1)
2) Once Upon a Time... (2) 3) Parasite (3)
4) The Farewell (4)
5) 1917 (5)
6) Knives Out (-)
Other Possibles: Uncut Gems, Honey Boy, Bombshell
BEST FILM EDITING
1) The Irishman (1) 2) Ford v Ferrari (2)
3) Once Upon a Time... (3) 4) Parasite (5) 5) Marriage Story (-)
6) 1917 (4)
Other possibles: The Two Popes, Jojo Rabbit, Joker
LATEST BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS FROM THE GURUS OF GOLD
I believe there will be a new Gurus this week with expanded predictions in a number of other categories. Keep an eye on my Twitter account ( @Gort2 ) for when that goes up.
TRAILERS FROM BEANPOLE AND THE ASSISTANT
A couple of films that screened at Telluride that have had low level buzz since the fest both released trailers this week.
Foreign Film contender from Russia, Kantemir Bagalov's Beanpole had one. Beanpole is set for release in the U.S. on Jan. 29th and is being distributed by Kino Lorber. Here's that video from YouTube:
Also launching a trailer was Kitty Green's The Assistant. That film will release on Jan. 31st and is distributed by Bleecker Street Media. Here's that trailer also from YouTube:
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
I'm posting my latest take on the Best Picture race today. My last Best Picture predictions were posted on Oct. 7th. Each film is followed by its position from the last prediction posting in parentheses. TFF #46 films are Bold.
1) Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (1)
2) The Irishman (3) 3) Marriage Story (2) 4) Parasite (5)
5) Jojo Rabbit (4) 6) The Two Popes (9)
7) 1917 (7)
8) Bombshell (-)
9) The Farewell (10)
10) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (6)
Other Possibles: Joker, Ford v. Ferrari, Dolemite Is My Name, Just Mercy
Notes: Substantial positive moves for The Two Popes and Bombshell. Meanwhile Ford v. Ferrari and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood both have lost some steam.
AWARDS SEASON STARTS TO GET REAL...
GOTHAM AWARD NOMINATIONS
The first of the end of season feature films awards organizations was out this week with their nominations for the best films of the year. The Gotham Awards focus on small to modest budgeted independent American films and as such do not nominate a film like Ford v. Ferrari. Nevertheless, their list gives us the first taste of some of the films and performances that will likely be a part of the larger awards conversation as the next few months unfold.
Last year's nominees included The Rider, The Favourite and First Reformed for Best Feature; Ethan Hawke and Richard E. Grant for Best Actor and Yalitza Aparicio for Breakthrough Actress.
This year's newly announced nominees include a number of films/performances from TFF #46 films:
Best Feature includes: Marriage Story, Uncut Gems and Waves.
Best Actor: Adam Driver/Marriage Story, Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems
Best Screenplay: Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story
Breakthrough Actor: Julia Fox/Uncut Gems, Taylor Russell/Waves
Other Best Feature nominees includes The Farewell and Hustlers.
Coverage of the Gotham Award nominees is linked here from:
CLIO SHORT LIST FOR TRAILERS AND TEASERS ANNOUNCED
The shortlist for the Clio Awards for trailers, teasers and integrated campaigns was released last week and included several nominees from TFF #45 and #46 films.
Among the teasers on the short list were "La Casa" from Roma
Among trailers short listed were trailers for First Man, Roma, Border and Parasite.
Roma was also short listed for Best Integrated Campaign.
Also announced this past week were the nominees for this year's International Documentary Awards. A couple of TFF docs from the past two years made it into the various lists of finalists.
TFF #45 film The Biggest Little Farm was nominated for Best Feature and Best Music Score. Meanwhile TFF #46 doc The Gift: The Journey of Johnny Cash was nominated for Best Music Documentary. Also nominated in that category was two-time nearly a TFF film and finally a part of this year's lineup, Amazing Grace.
We have a brand new trailer for Tom Harper's The Aeronauts from Amazon Studios. That dropped over the weekend. Here's the new glimpse of the film via YouTube:
The Aeronauts will be in select theaters on Dec. 6th and on Amazon Prime on Dec. 20th.
BLEEKER STREET NABS THE ASSISTANT
Kitty Green's The Assistant, which played at this year's fest, has been acquired for U.S. distribution by Bleeker Street.
That news coming officially from the company and The Hollywood Reporter. I'd been tipped off to the acquisition a couple of weeks ago by a friend of them blog and had been keeping it under warps until the deal became official.
The THR story says the film will be released domestically on Jan. 31st, 2020.
Monday is done day...
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
