Film Fest Heads Discuss the Future / Awards Radar Updates for Best Picture and TFF Potentials

 FILM FEST HEADS DISCUSS THE FUTURE

A couple of weeks back Indiewire hosted a conversation at Cannes  featuring four film festival directors including Telluride's Julie Huntsinger.  Other fest directors included were from Sundance, Berlin and New York.  The convo was hosted by Indiewire's Anne Thompson.

The focus was the future of film festivals.  You can see the entire 44 minute video at Indiewire's website.

That video and article are linked here.

https://www.indiewire.com/news/events/film-festival-directors-discuss-future-cannes-1235195002/

AWARDS RADAR UPDATES FOR BEST PICTURE AND TFF POTENTIALS

Joey Magidson of Awards Watch has updates his Best Picture predictions as of the end of the Cannes Film Fest.  He lists 25 films in all and in their order of likelihood in terms of being nominated and winning the 2027 Oscar.  I've broken those down into various categories as it relates to the potential for a TFF #53 play.

No chance: (Because they already have premiered before Telluride): 

#2 The Odyssey

#4 Project Hail Mary

#9 Tony

#11 Disclosure Day

#14 Josephine (Sundance) 

#21 The Invite

#24 Wuthering Heights

#25 Michael

Unlikely: (for a variety of reasons):

#1 Dune: Part Three

#6 Digger

#8 The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Smallish chance at Telluride:

#3 Wild Horse Nine

#5 The Social Reckoning

#10 Saturn Return

#12 I Play Rocky

#13 Being Heumann

#16 The Uprising

#17 Behemoth!

#19 Jack of  Spades

#20 A Place in Hell

Decent chance at Telluride:

#7 Fjord

#15 Paper Tiger

#18 Clarissa

#22 All of a Sudden

#23 Artificial

 

Here are all of Magidson's predictions complete with commentary.

https://awardsradar.com/best-picture/

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MTFB Oscar Update: Screenplays and More / MTFB Predicted Nomination Totals / SAG and DGA Nominations and TFF / IndieWire's 50+ Most Anticipated and TFF

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

Before we get to this post's Oscar nomination predictions, The Academy last night extended the nomination voting window by two days and moved the announcement of nominees to Sunday, January 19th due to the L.A. fires.  Now, onto the predictions which seem sort of a small consideration in light of what's going on in Southern California.

Here are updated nomination predictions for the Screenplay categories as well as for Best Costume Design, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects. These categories were last predicted on Dec. 26th.  A film's previous rank appears to the right in parentheses. TFF #51 films are in Bold.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave (1)

2) Emilia Perez (2)

3) Sing Sing (3)

4) Nickel Boys (4)

5) Dune Part Two (5)

Others: A Complete Unknown, Wicked and The Room Next Door.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anora (1)

2) The Brutalist (2)

3) A Real Pain (3)

4) The Substance (4)

5) September 5 (5)

Others: Hard Truths, All We Imagine as Light and The Seed of the Sacred Fig.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Wicked (1)

2) Dune Part Two (2)

3) Gladiator II (4)

4) Maria (3)

5) Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (5)

Others: Nosferatu, Conclave and Blitz.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Substance (1)

2) Wicked (2)

3) Dune Part Two (3)

4) Nosferatu (4)

5) A Different Man (5)

Others: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Emilia Perez, The Apprentice.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune Part Two (1)

2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (3)

3) Wicked (4)

4) Gladiator II (2)

5) Better Man (-)

Others: Twisters, Mufasa: The Lion King and Alien: Romulus

MTFB PREDICTED NOMINATION TOTALS

As we look down the barrel, we're only eight days away from Oscar Nomination morning.  As of the latest MTFB predictions, these are your accumulated totals:

I'm expecting Emilia Perez to lead all films with 11 nominations: Best Picture, International Feature, Direction, Actress (Gascon), Supporting Actress (Saldana), Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Score, Song (x2) and Sound.

The Brutalist (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Brody), Supporting Actress (Jones), Supporting Actor (Pearce), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score and Production Design.

Dune Part Two (9): Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Sound, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects.

Wicked (8): Best Picture, Actress (Erivo), Supporting Actress (Grande), Production Design, Sound, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects.

Conclave (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Rossellini), Adapted Screenplay, Editing and Score.

Anora (6): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Madison), Supporting Actor (Borisov), Original Screenplay and Editing.

Gladiator II (5): Best Supporting Actor (Washington), Production Design, Sound, Costumes and Visual Effects.

Nickel Boys (4): Best Picture, Direction, Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography.

A Complete Unknown (4): Best Picture, Actor (Chalamet), Supporting Actor (Norton) and Sound.

A Real Pain (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Culkin) and Original Screenplay.

Sing Sing (3): Best Picture, Actor (Domingo) and Adapted Screenplay.

Maria (3): Best Actress (Jolie), Cinematography and Costumes.

The Wild Robot (3): Best Animated Feature, Score and Song.

The Substance (3): Best Actress (Moore), Original Screenplay and Makeup/Hair.

Nosferatu (3): Best Cinematography, Production Design and Makeup/Hair.

Challengers (2): Best Original Score and Song.

Single nominations for:

The Seed of the Scared Fig: International Feature.

I'm Still Here: International Feature.

The Girl with the Needle: International Feature

Vermiglio: International Feature.

Inside Out 2: Animated Feature

Flow: Animated Feature

Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl: Animated Feature.

Memoir of a Snail: Animated Feature.

Sugarcane: Documentary Feature.

No Other Land: Documentary Feature.

Daughters: Documentary Feature.

Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat: Documentary Feature.

Dahomey: Documentary Feature.

Queer: Actor (Craig)

The Piano Lesson: Supporting Actress (Deadwyler).

September 5: Original Screenplay.

The Six Triple Eight: Song.

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice: Costumes.

A Different Man: Makeup/Hair.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: Visual Effects.

Better Man: Visual Effects.

All told MTFB says 11 TFF #51 films land 40 total nominations.

On Monday, I'll have predictions for the Shorts categories and then full predictions for all 23 categories on Thursday the 16th.

SAG AND DGA NOMINATIONS AND TFF

The Screen Actors Guild announced their 2024 nominees for film yesterday via a press release as opposed the originally planned live announcement.  That was scrapped as a result of the massive wild fires that are still ablaze this morning in the Los Angeles area.

In each of the six film categories here were the nominees from TFF #51 films:

Best Actor: Ralph Fiennes/Conclave.

Best Actress: Mikey Madison/Anora and Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez.

Best Supporting Actor: Yura Borisov/Anora, Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain and Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice.

Best Supporting Actress: Danielle Deadwyler/The Piano Lesson and Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez.

Best Cast: Anora, Conclave and Emilia Perez.

TFF had no films nominated in the Action/Stunt Ensemble category.

Kind of surprising omissions: Angelina Jolie (Maria) in Lead Actress and Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) for Supporting Actress.

Lots of strength for A Complete Unknown and Wicked.

The complete set of SAG nominees are linked here.

Meanwhile the Director's Guild of America (DGA) named its five nominees for Outstanding Directing for 2025 yesterday as well.  Three TFF #51 directors were nominated: Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez, Sean Baker/Anora  and Edward Berger/Conclave.  The other two nominees are Brady Corbet/The Brutalist and James Mangold/A Complete Unknown.

At present, the Producers Guild is set to announce their nominees on Friday but that could change due to the fires as well.

INDIEWIRE'S 50+ MOST ANTICIPATED AND TFF #52

IndieWire published its list of 50+ films that they're most excited about for 2025 last week and from the list here are the films that, on their face, seem Telluride-friendly:

The Bride/Gyllenhaal

Bugonia/Lanthimos

Marty Supreme/Safdie

Die, My Love/Ramsay

Father, Mother, Sister, Brother/Jarmusch

Frankenstein/Del Toro

Materialists/Song

The Phoenician Scheme/Anderson

Untitled Baumbach

The complete article is linked here.

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750,000 / 50 for Cannes / Meanwhile...Venice

750,000

I kind of teased this a little bit in my last post.  MTFB passed its 750,000 view over the weekend.  Three quarters of a million views!  That makes my head explode just a little bit. 

MTFB's first appeared on August 8th 2008 (8/8/08).  Today marks the 2115th post since I started this thing meaning that each post has averaged 355ish views.  The single most viewed post was Jan. 18, 2018.  That post focused on precursors that were upcoming for the 90th Oscar ceremony and a Variety piece featuring Greta Gerwig and Saorise Ronan talking about Lady Bird.

Here's the very post.

Here's the most viewed post.

50 FOR CANNES

Eric Kohn and the gang at Indiewire has put together a list of 50 films that the billas films they'd "like to see" at Cannes in May.  The heading on the email link for the story from Twitter calls them predictions though.  

As I have said many times, the Cannes/Telluride connection is very real.  Last year the Cannes/Telluride crossover was nine films by my count:

Armageddon Time

Broker

Close

Godland 

Holy Spider

One Fine Morning

Tori and Lokita

Le Pupille

Aftersun

Last year from Indiewire's 50 film wish list I culled 15 "possible" crossover films and from that list, seven actually made the trip: Armageddon Time, Broker, Close, Holy Spider, One Fine Morning, Tori and Lokita and Women Talking.

Bones and All was the only film on last year's Indiewire list that made the Telluride lineup (and from Venice not Cannes) that I didn't have in the 2022 version of this post.

The Indiewire post starts with the caveat that everyone is assuming that Killers of the Flower Moon will screen out of competition at Cannes as well as Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.  I'm already frequently on record that I'm making blood sacrifices in my backyard to get Killers to TFF but that I think the chances are slim.  Not impossible...but slim.  Of course Indy 5 releases on June 30th.

They also mention Pedro Almodovar's short film Strange Way of Life which is tipped to be the opening night film.  I actually think there is a reasonable possibility that it does make the TFF #50 lineup.

That said...here are what I think are the best shots at Cannes-then-Telluride films for the 50th edition of The SHOW from the Indieiwire list:

The Book of Solutions/Michel Gondry

Dead Leaves/Aki Kaurismaki

La Chimera/Alice Rohrwacher

Io Capitano/Matteo Garrone

Monster/Hirokazu Kore-eda

The New Boy/Warwick Thornton

May/December/Todd Haynes

Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos

The Royal Hotel/Kitty Green

Tokyo Toilet/Wim Wenders

The Zone of Interest/Jonathan Glazer

Here's the complete Indiewire story.

MEANWHILE...VENICE

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel posted a Venice spec piece on Saturday and it has some interesting ideas.  Venice and Cannes have nearly the same level of crossover to Telluride with Venice averaging (over the last decade) 7.3 films making the Venice/Telluride double dip.

Last year there were 10 films that accomplished the double play:

Bardo

Bobi Wine

Bones and All

A Compassionate Spy

Desperate Souls: Midnight Cowboy...

Fragments of Paradise

Living

TAR

March on Rome

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

So what does Jordan have that could (or that I want to) make the Venice/Telluride connection?

Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos

AND/Yorgos Lanthimos

The Killer/David Fincher

Blitz/Steve McQueen

How Do You Live?/Hayao Myazaki

The Holdovers/Alexander Payne

Maestro/Bradley Cooper

Challengers/Luca Guadagnino

Strangers/Andrew Haigh

Ruimy also mentions a couple of other films that could be in the mix for Venice first and then T-ride: Sofia Coppola's Priscilla and Jonathan Glazer's The Zone of Interest.

Here's Jordan's full post.

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MTFB'S Oscar Take: Updating the Big Eight / Indiewire's Critics Poll for 2021 / Interviews and Profiles: Joe Wright

MTFB'S OSCAR TAKE: UPDATING THE BIG EIGHT

With little more than a month to go until Oscar night, March 7th, here is an update on the eight major above the line categories with winners predictions.  As always TFF #48 films and performers are indicated in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) The Power of the Dog

2) Belfast

3) West Side Story

4) King Richard

5) Dune

6) Licorice Pizza

7) CODA

8) Don't Look Up

9) Drive My Car

10) Nightmare Alley

BEST DIRECTION

1) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog

2) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast

3) Steven Spielberg/West Side Story

4) Licorice Pizza/Paul Thomas Anderson

5) Ryusuke Hamaguchi/Drive My Car

BEST ACTRESS

1) Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos

2) Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye

3) Kristen Stewart/Spencer

4) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter

5) Penelope Cruz/Parallel Mothers

BEST ACTOR

1) Will Smith/King Richard

2) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog

3) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM

4) Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth

5) Javier Bardem/Being the Ricardos

1) BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Ariana DeBose/West Side Story

2) Kirsten Dunst/The Power of the Dog

3) Aujanue Ellis/King Richard

4) Jesse Buckley/The Lost Daughter

5) Judi Dench/Belfast

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog

2) Troy Kotsur/CODA

3) Ciaran Hinds/Belfast

4) Jesse Plemons/The Power of the Dog

5) J.K. Simmons/Being the Ricardos

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Belfast

2) Licorice Pizza

3) Don't Look Up

4) King Richard

5) The Worst Person in the World

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Power of the Dog

2) CODA

3) The Lost Daughter

4) Drive My Car

5) Dune

THE MOST RECENT PREDICTIONS FOR THE OTHER CATEGORIES

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Summer of Soul

2) Flee

3) Attica

4) Ascension

5) Writing with Fire

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Encanto

2) The Mitchells vs. the Machines

3) Luca

4) Flee

5) Raya and the Last Dragon

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Drive My Car

2) The Worst Person in the World

3) The Hand of God

4) Flee

5) Luana: A Yak in the Classroom

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Power of the Dog

2) Dune

3) The Tragedy of Macbeth

4) Nightmare Alley

5) West Side Story

BEST EDITING

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) Don't Look Up

4) King Richard

5) tick, tick...BOOM

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Dune

2) Nightmare Alley

3) West Side Story

4) The Power of the Dog

5) The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) Don't Look Up

4) Encanto

5) Parallel Mothers

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) No Time to Die/No Time to Die

2) Dos Oruguitas/Encanto

3) Be Alive/King Richard

4) Down to Joy/Belfast

5) Somehow You Do/Four Good Days

BEST COSTUMES

1) Cruella

2) Dune

3) Nightmare Alley

4) West Side Story

5) Cyrano

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune

2) Spiderman: No Way Home

3) No Time to Die

4) Shang Chi

5) Free Guy

BEST SOUND

1) Dune

2) West Side Story

3) Not Time to Die

4) The Power of the Dog

5) Belfast

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Dune

2) Cruella

3) The Eyes of Tammy Faye

4) The House of Gucci

5) Coming 2 America

INDIEWIRE'S CRITICS POLL FOR 2021

Indiewire polled 187critics asking them what the best films were for 2021.  They posted those results with a Top 50 list earlier this week.  TFF #48 films did well.  Very well.  Here's the rundown of where films from The SHOW ended up on the list:

#49 King Richard

#44 Cyrano

#38 The Card Counter

#37 Spencer

#32 Red Rocket

#31 The Velvet Underground

#23 A Hero

#22 Bergman Island

#21 Belfast

#16 The Lost Daughter

#10 C'mon C'mon

#8 Petite Maman

#7 Flee

#6 The French Dispatch

#1 The Power of the Dog

The complete list from Indiewire is linked here.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Joe Wright/Cyrano The Film Stage's The B-side

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MTFB Oscar Take: Screenplays / Indiewire Critic's Survey of the Fall Fests / Todd Haynes on The Velvet Underground / Belfast Adults Are All Supporting

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: SCREENPLAYS

Here's your latest Oscar predictions for Screenplay writing from MTFB.  These categories were last updated here on Sept. 30th.  TFF #48 films are in Bold.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Belfast (1)

2) Licorice Pizza (2)

3) King Richard (4)

4) C'mon C'mon (5)

5) Don't Look Up (3)

Alternates: Mass and Spencer 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Power of the Dog (1)

2) Nightmare Alley (2)

3) The Lost Daughter (New)

4) CODA (4)

5) The Tragedy of Macbeth (5)

Alternates: House of Gucci, Dune and West Side Story

INDIWIRE'S CRITICS' SURVEY OF THE FALL FESTS

Indiewire surveyed 137 critics and charged them with evaluating the films they had seen through the run of fall fests including Telluride, Venice, Toronto and New York'  Here's how TFF #48 films from that survey:

The overall #1 film from all four fests combined was Jane Campion's The Power of the Dog. 

 

#5 Celina Sciamma's Petite Maman

#8 Sean Baker's Red Rocket

#9 Mia Hansen-Love's Bergman Island\

#11 Pablo Larrain's Spencer

#14 Mike Mill's C'mon C'mon

#15 Maggie Gyllenhaal's The Lost Daughter

C'mon C'mon was the critic's favorite specifically focused on Telluride alone.

The top three documentaries all played TFF #47: Flee, The Velvet Underground and The Rescue.

The Power of the Dog was also named Best Directed Film.

Best Performances from all of the fests combined included Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog at #3 and Kristen Stewart in Spencer at #4.

The complete results can be found here.

TODD HAYNES ON THE VELVET UNDERGROUND

As mentioned above, Todd Haynes' doc about The Velvet Underground was named as one of the three best documentaries that played the fall festivals.  Haynes was recently featured in an interview for The Playlist.

Check out what Haynes has to say.  The interview is linked here.

BELFAST ADULTS ARE ALL SUPPORTING

Focus Features has announced that all of the adult actors in Kenneth Branagh's Belfast will be campaigned as Supporting players for the awards season.  That puts an end to speculation that both Jamie Dornan and Caitriona Balfe would possibly be categorized as leading performers.  Now, child actor Judah Hill will be the lone Belfast cast member who is campaigned as a leading actor.

Variety's Clayton Davis broke the details on Monday.  That story is linked here.

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Assessing A24 / Indiewire's Oscar List / French Dispatch News Leaves the Door Open

 ASSESSING A24

Continuing my look at film distributors who have had a significant presence at TFF over the last half decade my attention today is on A24.

Here's their footprint at TFF over the past few years:

2012: Ginger and Rosa

2013: Under the Skin

2015: Room

2016: Moonlight

2017: First Reformed, Lady Bird, Lean on Pete

2019: Uncut Gems, Waves, First Cow

And A24's stockpile is large for the end of 2020.  The most likely films to play Telluride are probably:

C'mon C'mon

The Humans

The Tragedy of Macbeth

But there are others that could be in the TFF convo:

The Eternal Daughter

When You Finish Saving the World

Red Rocket

And actually, A24 still has others in the pipeline that could be selected.

INDIEWIRE'S OSCAR LIST

Indiewire's Zack Sharf has taken a stab at an early look at this next year's potential Oscar Best Picture contenders with a list of 30 films.  Indiewire posted the list last Thursday.  Looking it over it crosses my mind that I could make some sort of case for a Telluride bow for about half of them.  Let's give it a whirl in the order that the Indiewire article lists them and with a note or two about why they might be a T-ride player.

Spencer: Because it's directed by Pablo Larrain who doesn't have every project at Telluride but he's no stranger either.  Also, it's from NEON...which doesn't hurt.

C'mon C'mon: Because it's from A24 (see above).

Last Night in Soho: Because it's from Focus Features.  Also, I have a hunch it will be announced as a Cannes selection later this week which could be a sign of a Cannes-Telluride double play.  Also, the Oct. 22nd release date gives the film space to play T-ride, TIFF and/or New York.

The Humans: Also from A24 (see above).

The Card Counter: Because it's directed by Paul Schrader who has a lengthy relationship with TFF. It's also from Focus and its release date, Sept. 10th, suggests it could play Cannes/Telluride or Venice/Telluirde or Telluride as a stand alone festival appearance.

Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project (Soggy Bottom):  It's been since 2007 since PTA was in Telluride to aid in feting tribute recipient Daniel Day-Lewis and screen the first few minutes of There Will Be Blood.  Since then PTA has directed: The Master (2012-Venice, TIFF),  Inherent Vice (2014-NYFF, AFI) and Phantom Thread (2017-Palm Springs).  Persistent rumors that it will be announced for Cannes on Thursday and a November release date leave the door open for a number of fall fest scenarios if MGM decides to pursuer them.  Also, does the Amazon acquisition of MGM change any of the festival calculus?  

Nightmare Alley: Because it's directed/produced by Guillermo Del Toro and co-written by Kim Morgan (who co-guest directed the fest in 2014).  The distributor is Searchlight which has a long and fruitful relationship with Telluride.  The Dec. 3rd release date works too.

Dune:  Because it's directed by Denis Villenueve who has a substantial Telluride record.  Being from Warner Brothers doesn't necessarily hurt.  Oct. 1 is the release date which works too.  I won't be surprised if Dune has some spot in Cannes' or Venice's lineup.

The Power of the Dog: Because it's directed by Jane Campion whose last feature, Bright Star, played at TFF back in 2009 and who's best known triumph, The Piano, played T-ride in 1993.  It's from Netflix which likely bolsters its TFF chances.

The French Dispatch:  Because...well...it is from Serachlight.  Also, see below...

The Tragedy of Macbeth:  Director Joel Coen was in Telluride in 2013 with Inside Llewyn Davis and the film is being distributed by A24.  

Don't Look Up: Because it's from Netflix.  Normally, Adam McKay's lack of a Telluride trail over the past decade would keep me from posting the film as a TFF #48 possibility but...Netflix.

Tick, Tick...Boom: Also a Netflix joint and yes, I know that Netflix won't land everything in their larder in Telluride.  And, yes, there's their whole "no festival" approach to last year-though I did hear rumors that had Telluride gone on in 2020 that Mank would have screened there.

The Hand of God: Netflix

The Eyes of Tammy Faye: From Searchlight which is the biggest reason to think it could be in Telluride.  It also has a Telluride friendly release date of Sept. 17th.

The complete Indiewire list is linked here.

FRENCH DISPATCH NEWS LEAVES THE DOOR OPEN

I believe Variety broke the news late this week that Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch will be a part of the Cannes lineup.  Also among the items of interest about the film are its selection for the New York Film Fest and an official theatrical release date for Oct. 22nd.

What's interesting to me is that the Cannes screening is given as the "world premiere" but I couldn't find any premiere designation for the New York Fest in any of the stories that appeared after the initial announcement.  To me that suggests at least the chance that it could also screen at Telluride and/or Toronto.

Here's the story from:

Variety

Indiewire

The Playlist

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Oscar Update: Best Director / LA and NY Film Critics Award 2020 Films / Indiewire's Best of 2020 / Nightmare at Christmas (And Maybe Labor Day?) / Two Telluride Favorites Talk Film: Barry and Chloe

 OSCAR UPDATE: BEST DIRECTOR

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Direction updated since I last posted this category on  Nov. 19th.  A director's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 films are indicated in Bold.

1) Chloe Zhao/Nomadland (1)

2) David Fincher/Mank (2)

3) Aaron Sorkin/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (3)

4) Lee Isaac Chung/Minari (7)

5) Regina King/One Night in Miami (4)

6) George C. Wolfe/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (9)

7) Florian Zeller/The Father (5)

8) Paul Greengrass/News of the World (8)

9) Spike Lee/Da 5 Bloods (6)

10) Shaka King/Judas and the Black Messiah (10)

Other Possibles: Darius Marder/Sound of Metal, Emerald Fennell/Promising Young Woman. Kornel Mundruczo/Pieces of a Woman

Hot: Lee Isaac Chung/Minari, George C. Wolfe/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Not: Florian Zeller/The Father, Spike Lee/Da 5 Bloods

INDIEWIRE'S BEST OF 2020

Indiewire polled over 200 critics worldwide for their 2020 Best Of poll.  The website posted their lists of top tens in multiple categories on Dec. 14th.  Among the various categories, here is where Tff $6 and TFF #47 films landed in each category:

Best Picture: #1) Nomadland (47), #3) First Cow (46), #6) Beanpole (46)

Best Director #1) Chloe Zhao/Nomadland (47), #4) Kelly Reichardt/First Cow, #9) Kantemir Balegov/Beanpole (46)

Best Performance: #2) Frances McDormand/Nomadland (47)

Best Cinematography: #1) Nomadland (47) #7) First Cow (46), #9) Beanpole (46)

Best Screenplay: #2) First Cow (46)

Best International Film: #2) Beanpole (46)

Best First Film: #7) The Assistant (46), #10) The Climb (46)

The complete listing in each category is linked here.

LA AND NY FILM CRITICS AWARD 2020 FILMS

Both The Los Angeles Film Critics Association and The New York Film Critics Circle named their "Best Of" for 2020 films over the weekend.  Here's how that played out for Telluride films from both TFF #47 and #46 is as follows:

From New York (From Variety):

Best Film: First Cow (TFF #46)

Best Director: Chloe Zhao/Nomadland (TFF #47)

The complete list of NYFCC winners is here from Variety.

Meanwhile the LAFCA had the following TFF films on its list:

Best Picture Runner-up: Nomadland (TFF #47)

Best Director: Chloe Zhao/Nomadland (TFF #47)

Best Foreign Language Film: Beanpole (TFF 346)

Best Editing: The Father (TFF #47)

Best Production Design Runner-up: Beanpole (TFF #46)

Best Cinematography Runner-up: Nomadland (TFF #47)

The complete list of LAFCA winners is here from The Hollywood Reporter.

 

NIGHTMARE AT CHRISTMAS (AND MAYBE LABOR DAY?)

Indiewire reported this week that Guillermo Del Toro has wrapped Nightmare Alley, his film noir starring Bradley Cooper, Cate Blanchett, Willem Dafoe and Richard Jenkins.  The article also includes a Tweet from the film's distributor, Searchlight, confirming an earlier Tweet from the film's co-writer, Kim Morgan, revealing that the film will be released in December of 2021.

The information that the film is wrapped combined with the release date allows for the possibility that we could see it pop up at TFF #48 perhaps after a Cannes or Venice bow or even as a first time ever screening at TFF.

Del Toro was on hand in Telluride in 2017 with The Shape of Water which had premiered at Venice.  after its Telluride play it went on to win the Best Picture Oscar and Del Toro won for Best Director.

Check out more details in the story from Indiewire linked here.

TWO TELLURIDE FAVORITES TALK FILM: BARRY AND CHLOE

They're two of the hottest directing/writing talents in the current film firmament.  They've also been at Telluride.  I'm talking Barry Jenkins, who has been a part of TFF since his college days and debuted Oscar winner Moonlight there in 2016 and Chloe Zhao who has been at T-ride with both The Rider in 2017 and this year's Nomadland.  As a matter of fact, the two met originally in Telluride in 2017 (per Variety's reporting).

So, Variety got the two together recently for a conversation.  Thanks Variety!

Here's the link to the print and video of their conversation.

BERLIN FEST MOVES AND WILL BE A HYBRID

The Berlin Film Festival, which often premieres a couple of films that make it into the Telluride lineup each year, has announced changes from their traditional dates and structure as Covid-19 continues to change the shape of the film world at large and film festivals in particular.

Variety reports that:

"The festival is now looking to present the festival selections to the film industry in early March, Variety understands, with the European Film Market running as a digital event at the same time. A mini-festival with a series of onsite world premieres is being planned for early June."

The complete Variety article with further details can be found here.

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Toronto Announces First Titles / Film Fests Reacting to Oscar Date Change / The Distribs: Focus Features

TORONTO ANNOUNCES FIRST TITLES

The Toronto International Film Festival announced a number of titles yesterday that they are planning to include as a part of a pared back TIFF.  Numerous reports yesterday indicate that TIFF will program approximately 50 films this year.  That contrasts with the common inclusion of 275-300 titles that are customarily a part of the TIFF lineup.

AMong titles announced yesterday were Francis Lee's Ammonite, Thomas Vinterberg's Another Round and Naomi Kawase's True Mothers-three films which I have had on the TFF #47 list of possibles for some time (I've been particularly high on chances that Ammonite might be a TFF choice).

While major publications have not labeled the World Premieres, a couple of the films have been referenced that way.  Indiewire tweeted that Idris Elba starrer Concrete Cowboys will be World Premiering at TIFF and The Danish Film Institute said the same about Another Round.  If that is the case, then that all but removes those titles from TFF #47 consideration.  Further, it implies that entire list of films announced by TIFF are probably World Premieres as well. Halle Berry's directing debut Bruised is also on the list of announced TIFF films.

Other interesting notes:  TIFF will have an initial five days of on-site socially distanced presentations and past that will largely be online.  Other titles will be announced as the summer progresses.

Coverage is here from Variety and Indiewire.




FALL FILM FESTS REACTING TO OSCAR DATE CHANGE

Last week Anne Thompson wrote a piece for Indiewire with her take on how the fall film fests are reacting to the recent announcement that the Oscars ceremony will take place in late April of 2021, a full two months later than their originally announced date.

Among the items of interest mentioned in the piece are:

Telluride is said to be releasing practical plans by mid-July.  Additionally, there are still hurdles for the fest to get through between now and Labor Day.  Thompson writes:

"The Telluride Film Festival is proceeding as though the festival is happening, with practical plans to be revealed by mid-July. But the festival will be dependent on whether the state of Colorado allows theaters to open in time. If not, the county will need to obtain a variance from the state to show films in theaters."

A side note of interest is that Thompson reports that the Toronto International Film Fest is supposed to announce some of their plans within the next few days:

"September’s Toronto festival, which is determined to meet any eventuality and will announce its plans before the end of June."

The third interesting tidbit is in regards to Sony Pictures Classics as they make plans within a shifting landscape.  From the article:

“We kind of plan and prepare,” said Tom Bernard, co-president of Sony Pictures Classics, who is juggling his release schedule and waiting to see who shows up for “Tenet” on July 31. “And be ready to tonally change the plan if more variables show up. We’ll send our films everywhere we can. We don’t know.”

Which sounds to me like we can probably plan on seeing some SPC projects at Telluride in some form.  I took a look at the current SPC slate in my post on June11th.


Here's Thompson's Indiewire story



THE DISTRIBS: FOCUS FEATURES

Today's look at distributors and what they might submit for TFF #47 focuses on Focus Features.  I have some confidence that Focus has some interest in submitting films for Telluride this year even amidst the pandemic.

So that begs the question...what would they bring?  Their two biggest current projects are Tom McCarthy's Stillwater and Edgar Wright's Last Night in Soho.  Stillwater's still set for release on Nov. 6th while Soho has been set for release on April 23rd.  Those release dates suggest that Stillwater is much more likely as a Focus entry for TFF #47 than Soho.  Adding to our calculation is the fact that McCarthy's Spotlight began its run to Oscar glory in 2015 at Venice followed immediately by an appearance at TFF # 42.

Focus has three other films that I believe have at least some limited possibility of making a play at Telluride: Marilyn Agrelo's Sesame Street documentary Street Gang, Emmy, Golden Globe and SAG Award nominated actress Robin Wright's feature directorial debut-Land (I think I remember Wright being at TFF in 2007) and Eddie Huang's Boogie.


Chances:

Stillwater  50%
Land 35%
Street Gang 25%
Boogie 15%
Last Night in Soho 5%

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Venice to Take the Pulse / Indiewire Lists Oscar Possibles / Vonnegut Doc

VENICE TO TAKE THE PULSE

Elsa Keslassy writing for Variety reports this week that the Venice Film Fest is surveying a broad swath of people and entities that have been and potentially would be players for that fest that is currently slated to run from Sept. 2-12.

Writing in a story that was posted Tuesday, Keslassy says:

"The letter, which was signed by Venice’s artistic director Alberto Barbera and issued on Monday, is meant to gauge how many filmmakers, talent and producers are willing to turn up at the fest before a decision is taken at the end of the month on whether to maintain or cancel this year’s edition."

The article quotes Venice artistic director Alberto Barbera as saying in the letter:

“We all know that, most probably, any festival will not be able to take place exactly like it was in the past. We will have to deal with a number of limitations and security measures: reduction of the number of screened films and a similar decrease of attendance from press, industry and audience."

A couple of other notes from the story worth mentioning are that Venice may be softening an earlier line that suggested that no part of the fest would be conducted online and that Barnera is expected to get feedback by May 10th.

Venice's survey might serve as a template for others of the fall film fests to consider as they move forward in their attempts to go forward.

The complete Variety article is here.



INDIEWIRE LISTS OSCAR POSSIBLES

Julia Garner in The Assistant

On the heels of an L.A. Times list of potential Oscar eligible films that I linked in Monday's post, Indiewire's Zack Sharf posted a list for consideration yesterday in a piece called "The 20 Best Movies Eligible for Oscars Right Now".

Sharf uses his crystal ball to assess films that would meet the new criteria established for this year's Academy Awards .

It has some interesting titles including a couple that played TFF #46.  Those are: The Assistant and First Cow.

There are a few Sundance titles that under normal circumstances I would flatly rule out but these times are not normal circumstances.  So...maybe?????  Crip Camp, Miss Americana and Spaceship Earth.

Check out Sharf's entire list here.


VONNEGUT DOC

Those that know me well know that I'm a ridiculous fan f Kurt Vonnegut and his literary canon (looking at you Chris Schneider).  Yesterday, Whyaduck Productions and 9.14 Pictures dropped a trailer for a new documentary about the author and, as you might expect, I was thrilled.  The title: Kurt Vonnegut: Unstuck in Time...other Vonnegut fans will appreciate the Slaughterhouse-Five reference in the film's title.

Here's the trailer from YouTube:

The film does not yet seem to have a distributor as yet nor a release date.  So...hear my plea...Program this for TFF #47.  Also, some distrib...pick this up.

The director, Robert Weide, has significant ties to Larry David's Curb Your Enthusiasm.  He was Oscar nominated for Best Documentary Feature in 1998 for Lenny Bruce: Swear to Tell the Truth.  That also earned a Primetime Emmy Award for his direction.  Additionally,  He won a DGA award for direction for Curb in 2012 and another for the HBO program: Palestinian Chicken.  He also won a PGA award for and a Primetime Emmy producing Curb in 2000.  He also was very involved with the PBS docu-series American Masters.  The guy has some hardware.

Vonnegut appeared for a speaking engagement in Oklahoma City in February 2003 and I actually took a personal day to be there.  I was lucky enough to run into a couple of former students and if you ever saw Vonnegut do his lecture, you know that he talks lovingly about teachers.  It was more than special.

Vonnegut died a bit more than four years later.


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Oscar Short Lists / Oscar Prediction Updates: Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Original Song / Indiewire's 2019 Critics Poll

OSCAR SHORT LISTS

Earlier this week The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced the short lists for nine of its Oscar categories.  I have listed all TFF #46 (and #45) films that have been named on those lists and are thereby still in contention for a possible win.  Here they are:


International Film: Beanpole, Pain and Glory, Parasite, Those Who Remained
Documentary Feature: The Biggest Little Farm (TFF #45)
Original Score: Ford v Ferrari, Marriage Story, Motherless Brooklyn, Pain and Glory
Original Song: Daily Battles from Motherless Brooklyn
Makeup/Hair: Judy
Documentary Short: Fire in Paradise

No TFF #46 films were named to the Oscar short lists in Visual Effects, Animated Shorts or Live Action Shorts.

Complete Short Lists are linked here from Gold Derby.



OSCAR PREDICTION UPDATES: COSTUMES, MAKEUP/HAIR, SONG

Here are updates for three Oscar categories.  These new predictions are updated to reflect The Academy's Short Lists that were announced Monday for Makeup/Hair and Original Song.  TFF #46 films are Bold.  These categories were last predicted on Nov. 21st.


COSTUMES

1) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (1)
2) Dolemite Is My Name (2)
3) Little Women (3)
4) Rocketman (4)
5) Downton Abbey (5)
6) The Irishman (-)

Other possibles: Joker, Harriet, Judy


MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Bombshell (1)
2) Joker (4)
3) Rocketman (3)
4) Judy (5)
5) Once Upon a Time... (2)
6) Dolemite Is My Name (-)

Other possibles: Downton Abbey, 1917, Little Women


ORIGINAL SONG

1) Into the Unknown/Frozen II (1)
2) I'm Gonna Love Me Again/Rocketman (4)
3) Stand Up/Harriet (2)
4) Spirit/The Lion King (5)
5) I'm Standing with You/Breakthrough (-)
6) I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away/Toy Story 4 (-)

Other possibles: Speechless/Aladdin, Glasgow/Wild Rose, Letter to My Godfather/The Black Godfather


INDIEWIRE'S 2019 CRITICS POLL

Indiewire surveyed over 300 critics, blogger and industry types to compile a huge database and posted the collective responses on Monday this week.  Eric Kohn and crew provided those in  categories.

TFF #46 films that registered and their positions were:

Best Film

1) Parasite
3) Marriage Story
5) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
6) Pain and Glory
7) Uncut Gems
16) A Hidden Life

Best Director

1) Bong Joon-ho/Parasite
4) Celine Sciamma/Portrait of a Lady on Fire
5) Josh and Bennie Safdie/Uncut Gems
6) Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story
7) Pedro Almodovar/Pain and Glory
15) Terrence Malick/A Hidden Life
23) Trey Shults/Waves

Best Screenplay

1) Parasite
2) Marriage Story
7) Pain and Glory
8) Uncut Gems
10) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
16) The Two Popes
24) A Hidden Life


Best Actress

2) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story
4) Renee Zellweger/Judy
10) Adele Haenel/Portrait of a Lady on Fire
13) Naemi Merlant/Portrait of a Lady on Fire


Best Actor

1) Adam Driver/Marriage Story
2) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory
3) Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems
9) Sang Kang-ho/Parasite
13) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes
18) Christian Bale/Ford v Ferrari
22) August Diehl/A Hidden Life


Best Supporting Actress

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story
7) Julia Fox/Uncut Gems
8) Annette Bening/The Report
10) Park So-dam/Parasite
11) Taylor Russell/Waves
13) Adele Haenel/Portrait of a Lady on Fire
15) ChoYao Jeong/Parasite
18) Penelope Cruz/Pain and Glory
22) Jeong-eun Lee/Parasite

Best Supporting Actor

5) Sang Kang-ho/Parasite
7) Alan Alda/Marriage Story
12) Sterling K. Brown/Waves
13) Ray Liotta/Marriage Story
14) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes
20) Asier Etxandia/Pain and Glory


Best Cinematography

3) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
5) Parasite
7) A Hidden Life
8) Uncut Gems
17) Pain and Glory
19) Waves
23) Marriage Story
24) Ford v Ferrari

Best Documentary

6) Varda by Agnes
7) Amazing Grace
10) Diego Maradona
18) The Kingmaker
19) Tell Me Who I Am
22) 63 Up
23) The Biggest Little farm (TFF #45)


Best Foreign Film

1) Parasite
2) Pain and Glory
3) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
19) Birds of Passage (TFF #45)
20) Beanpole


The complete Indiewire critics poll is linked here.



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