MTFB Oscar Update: Screenplays and More / MTFB Predicted Nomination Totals / SAG and DGA Nominations and TFF / IndieWire's 50+ Most Anticipated and TFF

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

Before we get to this post's Oscar nomination predictions, The Academy last night extended the nomination voting window by two days and moved the announcement of nominees to Sunday, January 19th due to the L.A. fires.  Now, onto the predictions which seem sort of a small consideration in light of what's going on in Southern California.

Here are updated nomination predictions for the Screenplay categories as well as for Best Costume Design, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects. These categories were last predicted on Dec. 26th.  A film's previous rank appears to the right in parentheses. TFF #51 films are in Bold.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave (1)

2) Emilia Perez (2)

3) Sing Sing (3)

4) Nickel Boys (4)

5) Dune Part Two (5)

Others: A Complete Unknown, Wicked and The Room Next Door.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anora (1)

2) The Brutalist (2)

3) A Real Pain (3)

4) The Substance (4)

5) September 5 (5)

Others: Hard Truths, All We Imagine as Light and The Seed of the Sacred Fig.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Wicked (1)

2) Dune Part Two (2)

3) Gladiator II (4)

4) Maria (3)

5) Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (5)

Others: Nosferatu, Conclave and Blitz.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Substance (1)

2) Wicked (2)

3) Dune Part Two (3)

4) Nosferatu (4)

5) A Different Man (5)

Others: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Emilia Perez, The Apprentice.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune Part Two (1)

2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (3)

3) Wicked (4)

4) Gladiator II (2)

5) Better Man (-)

Others: Twisters, Mufasa: The Lion King and Alien: Romulus

MTFB PREDICTED NOMINATION TOTALS

As we look down the barrel, we're only eight days away from Oscar Nomination morning.  As of the latest MTFB predictions, these are your accumulated totals:

I'm expecting Emilia Perez to lead all films with 11 nominations: Best Picture, International Feature, Direction, Actress (Gascon), Supporting Actress (Saldana), Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Score, Song (x2) and Sound.

The Brutalist (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Brody), Supporting Actress (Jones), Supporting Actor (Pearce), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score and Production Design.

Dune Part Two (9): Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Sound, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects.

Wicked (8): Best Picture, Actress (Erivo), Supporting Actress (Grande), Production Design, Sound, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects.

Conclave (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Rossellini), Adapted Screenplay, Editing and Score.

Anora (6): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Madison), Supporting Actor (Borisov), Original Screenplay and Editing.

Gladiator II (5): Best Supporting Actor (Washington), Production Design, Sound, Costumes and Visual Effects.

Nickel Boys (4): Best Picture, Direction, Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography.

A Complete Unknown (4): Best Picture, Actor (Chalamet), Supporting Actor (Norton) and Sound.

A Real Pain (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Culkin) and Original Screenplay.

Sing Sing (3): Best Picture, Actor (Domingo) and Adapted Screenplay.

Maria (3): Best Actress (Jolie), Cinematography and Costumes.

The Wild Robot (3): Best Animated Feature, Score and Song.

The Substance (3): Best Actress (Moore), Original Screenplay and Makeup/Hair.

Nosferatu (3): Best Cinematography, Production Design and Makeup/Hair.

Challengers (2): Best Original Score and Song.

Single nominations for:

The Seed of the Scared Fig: International Feature.

I'm Still Here: International Feature.

The Girl with the Needle: International Feature

Vermiglio: International Feature.

Inside Out 2: Animated Feature

Flow: Animated Feature

Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl: Animated Feature.

Memoir of a Snail: Animated Feature.

Sugarcane: Documentary Feature.

No Other Land: Documentary Feature.

Daughters: Documentary Feature.

Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat: Documentary Feature.

Dahomey: Documentary Feature.

Queer: Actor (Craig)

The Piano Lesson: Supporting Actress (Deadwyler).

September 5: Original Screenplay.

The Six Triple Eight: Song.

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice: Costumes.

A Different Man: Makeup/Hair.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: Visual Effects.

Better Man: Visual Effects.

All told MTFB says 11 TFF #51 films land 40 total nominations.

On Monday, I'll have predictions for the Shorts categories and then full predictions for all 23 categories on Thursday the 16th.

SAG AND DGA NOMINATIONS AND TFF

The Screen Actors Guild announced their 2024 nominees for film yesterday via a press release as opposed the originally planned live announcement.  That was scrapped as a result of the massive wild fires that are still ablaze this morning in the Los Angeles area.

In each of the six film categories here were the nominees from TFF #51 films:

Best Actor: Ralph Fiennes/Conclave.

Best Actress: Mikey Madison/Anora and Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez.

Best Supporting Actor: Yura Borisov/Anora, Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain and Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice.

Best Supporting Actress: Danielle Deadwyler/The Piano Lesson and Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez.

Best Cast: Anora, Conclave and Emilia Perez.

TFF had no films nominated in the Action/Stunt Ensemble category.

Kind of surprising omissions: Angelina Jolie (Maria) in Lead Actress and Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) for Supporting Actress.

Lots of strength for A Complete Unknown and Wicked.

The complete set of SAG nominees are linked here.

Meanwhile the Director's Guild of America (DGA) named its five nominees for Outstanding Directing for 2025 yesterday as well.  Three TFF #51 directors were nominated: Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez, Sean Baker/Anora  and Edward Berger/Conclave.  The other two nominees are Brady Corbet/The Brutalist and James Mangold/A Complete Unknown.

At present, the Producers Guild is set to announce their nominees on Friday but that could change due to the fires as well.

INDIEWIRE'S 50+ MOST ANTICIPATED AND TFF #52

IndieWire published its list of 50+ films that they're most excited about for 2025 last week and from the list here are the films that, on their face, seem Telluride-friendly:

The Bride/Gyllenhaal

Bugonia/Lanthimos

Marty Supreme/Safdie

Die, My Love/Ramsay

Father, Mother, Sister, Brother/Jarmusch

Frankenstein/Del Toro

Materialists/Song

The Phoenician Scheme/Anderson

Untitled Baumbach

The complete article is linked here.

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Updated Oscar Predictions: Cinematography, Score, Production Design / Clues from Critics / Guilds Begin Their Long March / New Gurus of Gold

UPDATED OSCAR PREDICTIONS: CINEMATOGRAPHY, ORIGINAL SCORE AND PRODUCTION DESIGN

TFF #46 films highlighted are Bold.


CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) 1917 (3)
2) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (1)
3) The Irishman (2)
4) Joker (-)
5) Ford v Ferrari (-)
6) The Lighthouse (-)


Other possibles: A Hidden Life, The Two Popes, Little Women


ORIGINAL SCORE

1) 1917 (3)
2) Marriage Story (4)
3) Little Women (2)
4) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (1)
5) Joker (-)
6) Ford v Ferrari (5)

Other possibles: Jojo Rabbit, Portrait of a Lady on Fire


PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (1)
2) 1917 (-)
3) The Irishman (3)
4) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (2)
5) Joker (-)
6) Parasite (-)

Other possibles: Jojo Rabbit, The Two Popes, Little Women



CLUES FROM CRITICS

The six critics lists that I pay most attention to this time of year have all reported in and if the past has anything to reveal about the Oscar best Picture race looking at those results; it's that your Best Picture winner is on that list somewhere but is not the top film on the list.

Here's what we saw the last couple of years from the collective look at NBR, AFI, the Golden Globes, The Critics Choice, the Los Angeles Critics and the New York Critics:

From 2017 (film followed by the organization(s) that awarded them...Oscar Best Pic Nominees are in Blue and the winner is Red)

10) The Disaster Artist (NBR, GG)
7) The Florida Project (NBR, BFCA, AFI)
7) The Big Sick (BFCA, AFI, SAG)
7) The Shape of Water (BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) The Post (NBR, BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) Dunkirk (NBR, BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
2) Call Me By Your Name (NBR, LA, BFCA, GG, AFI)
2) Get Out (NBR, BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
1) Lady Bird (NBR, NY, BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)

So it included TFF #44 films Lady Bird, and The Shape of Water.  It also included eventual Oscar Best Picture winner, The Shape of Water. and nominees Lady Bird, Three Billboards, Dunkirk, The Post, Get Out, Call Me By Your Name and Dunkirk.  So, the top seven got in with the additions, of TFF #44 film Darkest Hour and also Phantom Thread.

Here are the results from 2018:

9) Six films tied here with two mentions each: Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, Eighth Grade, First Reformed, A Quiet Place and Vice.

7) Mary Poppins Returns (3): NBR, AFI, BFCA
7) The Favourite (3): GG, AFI, BFCA
4) If Beale Street Could Talk (4): NBR, GG, AFI, BFCA
4) Green Book (4): NBR (best picture), GG, AFI, BFCA
4) BlacKkKlansman (4): GG, AFI, SAG, BFCA
1) A Star Is Born (5): NBR, GG, AFI, SAG, BFCA
1) Roma (5): NBR, NY, LA, AFI (special citation), BFCA
1) Black Panther (5): NBR, GG, AFI, SAG, BFCA

With single mentions: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Can You Ever Forgive Me? and First Man.

So where are for 2019 (TFF #46 films in Green):

1) The Irishman (6) NBR, AFI, GG, CC, NY -runner-up, LA
2) 1917 (4) NBR, AFI, GG, CC
2) Jojo Rabbit (4) NBR, AFI, GG, CC
2) Marriage Story (4) NBR, AFI, GG, CC
2) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (4) NBR, AFI, GG, CC
6) Joker (3) AFI, GG, CC
6) Knives Out (3) NBR, AFI, GG
6) Parasite (3) AFI-special citation, CC, LA
9) The Farewell (2) NBR, AFI
9) Ford v Ferrari (2) NBR, CC
9) Little Women (2) AFI, CC
9) Richard Jewell (2) NBR, AFI
9) Uncut Gems (2) NBR, CC

Single mentions for: Waves, The Two Popes, Rocketman, Dolemite Is My Name, Judy and A Hidden Life.


GUILDS BEGIN THEIR LONG MARCH

The Screen Actors Guild/AFTRA named their nominees for acting awards for the past year yesterday.  Nominees included these performers from TFF #46 films:

Marriage Story: Scarlett Johansson/Best Actress, Adam Driver/Best Actor, Laura Dern/Best Supporting Actress

Judy: Renee Zellweger/Best Actress

Ford v Ferrari: Christian Bale/Best Actor, Best Stunt Ensemble

Best Ensemble nominees included: Parasite

Jay Roach's Bombshell led all films with four nominations.  Charlize Theron for Leading Actress and both Margot Robbie and Nicole Kidman for Supporting Actress and a nomination for Best Ensemble.

The complete list of SAG/AFTRA nominees are linked here.


Meanwhile, the Art Directors Guild, the Cinema Audio Society and the Costume Designers Guild also have named their nominees.

James Mangold's Ford v Ferrari broke through with nods for Sound from the CAS as well as Period Production Design from the Art Directors Guild.

Parasite was nominated also by the ADG for Best Contemporary Production Design.

The complete list of nominees for the ADG is linked here.

Additionally, the Association of Cinema Editors (A.C.E.) announced their nominees for excellence in editing yesterday.  TFF #46 films included among those nominees were: Ford v Ferrari, Marriage Story and Parasite in the Drama category.  Linda Ronstadt: The Sound of My Voice was nominated in the feature documentary category.

The complete list of A.C.E. nominees is linked here


No TFF #46 film earned a Costume Design Guild nomination this year.  Those nominees can be viewed here.


NEW GURUS OF GOLD

Movie City News has a new updated set of predictions from The Gurus of Gold.  Categories that are included in this latest set of Guru guesses are Best Picture, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Director, and Screenplays.

Here's the link to the latest Gurus of Gold.

TFF #46 that are predicted to get nominations according to the Gurus in these eight categories are:

Marriage Story: Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Direction, Original Screenplay

Parasite: Best Picture, Best Direction, Best Original Screenplay

Ford v Ferrari: Best Picture

The Two Popes: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay

Judy: Best Actress

Pain and Glory: Best Actor



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