Ten Bets #2 / Update from Telluride / Focus Does a Do-Si-Do / The Distribs: Lionsgate and Roadside Attractions

TEN BETS #2

Here's an update on my latest guesses about what films might screen as a part of gthe 47th Telluride Film Festival.  First, a reminder of the this year's first Ten Bets list from June 29th:

10) Ammonite
9) Undine
8) The Secrets We Keep
7) Forgotten We'll Be
6) Untitled Garbus/Cortes Voting Rights Doc
5) Fireball
4) Nomadland
3) John Prine: Hello in There
2) Small Axe (Mangrove and/or Lover's Rock)
1) There Is No Evil


And the current Ten Bets:

10) Undine
9) Forgotten We'll Be
8) The Secrets We Keep
7) Notturno
6) Small Axe (Mangrove and/or Lover's Rock)
5) John Prine: Hello In There
4) Fireball
3) Nomadland
2) There Is No Evil
1) Ammonite

I still feel that the Untitled Garbus/Cortes Voting Rights Documentary is also a good bet for TFF #47.


UPDATE FROM TELLURIDE

Since my last post on Friday more information has come to light from Telluride.  Last week I had included a good deal of information from an Indiewire story that, among other items, suggested that Telluride's Town Council would meet and likely make some TFF related decisions on July 15th.  That appears to be incorrect.  The Parks Committee does have a meeting scheduled in Telluride on July 15th but the Town Council does not meet until July 21st.

According to sources in Telluride the agenda for that meeting has not been posted.

Meanwhile, Suzanne Cheavans writing in The Telluride Daily Planet reported on a San Miguel County Commissioners meeting from last week at which there was some discussion of TFF.  Her reporting has a couple of very interesting pieces of information including the revelation that school buildings in Telluride will not be available for the fest to use. That article is linked here.


FOCUS DOES A DO-SI-DO

Focus Features has sifted its lineup.  The distribution company announced that they have moved Let Him Go starring Kevin Costner and Diane Lane from Aug. 21st to Nov. 6th and that consequently that will displace Stillwater which had originally been scheduled on Nov. 6th.  No new date was announced for Stillwater which stars Matt Damon and Abigail Breslin.

Back on June 25th I assessed the Focus lineup for Telluride possibilities and had put Stillwater's chances at 50%.  At that time I didn't evaluate the chances for Let Him Go because of its pre-TFF release date.

The move reduces Stillwater's chances of being in the TFF #47 lineup in my estimation.  It goes from my original guestimate of 50% down to 20%.  Meanwhile, Let Him Go gets rated at a 25% chance of making the Telluride lineup.

As a side note, Focus Features did a survey of past TFF journalist attendees a month ago that centered on getting a feel for probable attendees for this year.

Here's more info from Deadline.


THE DISTRIBS: LIONSGATE/ROADSIDE ATTRACTIONS

Lionsgate and affiliated film company Roadside Attractions have a solid appearance history with the Telluride Film Festival.

Lionsgate at Telluride:

2017: Hostiles
2016: La La Land
2013: All Is Lost

Roadside Attractions was repped at T-ride as follows over the past few years:

2019: Judy
2018: Trial by Fire
2016: Manchester by the Sea
2014: '71, Mommy, The Homesman
2013: All is Lost, Gloria
2012: Stories We Tell
2011: Albert Nobbs
2010: Biutiful

Between the two affiliated companies they average about 1.2 films per year at TFF.

This year Lionsgate's best shot is Fatale starring two time Oscar winner and past TFF Tribute recipient Hilary Swank (TFF #41 in 2014).  Swank stars as the fatale of the title.  The film was originally scheduled for release in June but is now dated for Oct. 30th.  Doug Liman's Chaos Walking (with Charlie Kaufman credited as one of the writers of the screenplay) might be an outside possibility.  It's currently scheduled for release in January 2021.

Roadside Attractions only shot appears to be The Glorias from Julie Taymor.  The film looks at the life of feminist icon Gloria Steinem and stars Julianne Moore and Alicia Vikander.  The film played Sundance, however, and as a result is highly unlikely for Telluride...although...as weird as this year is...never say never.

Chances:

Fatele 30%
Chaos Walking 20%
The Glorias 15%

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Does San Sebastian List Tell Us Anything? / I'm Thinking of Ending Things Goes Early / Sasha Weighs In on Oscar

DOES SAN SEBASTIAN LIST TELL US ANYTHING?

San Sebastian is planning for its film fest which runs Sept. 18-26...roughly two weeks after TFF and a week after Toronto.  They've announced their first set of selected films which include a number of Cannes "branded" films.  Of not to Telluride watchers probably are Summer of '85, Another round and True Mothers...which, barring being World Premieres for TIFF might indicate them as possibilities for TFF #47.

I'll point out again that when TIFF announced their Cannes titles a few weeks back, I pointed out that the TIFF press language called their selections as "premieres" without any qualifying status (i.e. "World" or "North American".  My point was the notion that if TIFF could have announced them as a "World" or "North American" premiere they would have.  Of course, I could be totally wrong.

Still, perhaps these selections are pointing to the most likely Cannes "crossovers" this year.


Here's the San Sebastian initial announcement from Variety.


I'M THINKING OF ENDING THINGS GOES EARLY

Netflix has announced that Charlie Kaufman's I'm Thinking of Ending Things will drop on Sept. 4th which is now the second day of the Telluride Film Festival.  The announcement would certainly suggest that the film would not be at TFF #47 in a "normal" world.  In a Covid-19 world, who knows?

But it also probably underscores Netflix's earlier revelation that they won't be including ANY of their titles at ANY film fest this fall.

As many of you know, I have been harboring a theory that there Netflix might pop some of their titles at Telluride under cover of Telluride's policy of not revealing titles until the day before the fest starts.

My takeaway from this information that my theory seems even less likely to come to pass and it was a highly unlikely scenario to begin with.  Still, I'm not likely to abandon it it completely.


SASHA WEIGHS IN ON OSCAR

My friend Sasha Stone, founder of Awards Daily posted some serious and early Oscar prognostication since my last post.  Included in the article re her picks for Best PIc as well as a list forwarded to her from another friend.  I can tell you that Sasha's friend is also pretty good at predicting Oscar fortunes.

The friend's list includes:

Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
The French Dispatch (Searchlight)
Hamilton (Disney)
Mank (Netflix)
Minari (A24)
Nomadland (Searchlight)
Stillwater (Focus)
Tenet (Warner Bros.)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
West Side Story (Fox/Disney)

Sasha's list includes:

Mank
West Side Story
Nightmare Alley
News of the World
Tenet
Nomadland
Stillwater
Trial of the Chicago 7
The Father
Da 5 Bloods

Films on both lists: Mank, Da Five Bloods, Chicago 7, Nomadland, Stillwater, Tenet and West Side Story.  Of those only Nomadland seems to me to be a solid TFF prospect.  Da Five Bloods, Mank and Chicago 7 are all Netflix joints now and I don't see Tenet or West Side Story being at a fest at all.  Stillwater from Focus is intriguing.  Whether it's a serious TFF possibility depends on if it's finished and what path Focus Features decides to follow.

The friend's other three films are: The French Dispatch, Hamilton and Minari.  Of that list only The French Dispatch might be in the cards for TFF.  Hamilton is playing now on Disney+,  Minari was a Sundance film.

Sasha's other four are: The Father (also a Sundance title), Guillermo Del Toro's Nightmare Alley which recent reports suggest wasn't quite half-filmed when production shut down due to the pandemic-I don't think it'll be close to ready for TFF.  Actually, I'll be surprised of it's ready in time for Oscar consideration this year even with the extended release window currently in place.  Sasha's third film is Paul Greengrass' News of the World which hasn't been high on my list for TFF all along as Greengrass has never played anything at Telluride and also due to the lack of much a Telluride profile from its distributor/studio (Columbia/Universal).

Sasha's complete article is here and includes some mention of Best Director and Best Actor possibilities.

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Toronto Announces First Titles / Film Fests Reacting to Oscar Date Change / The Distribs: Focus Features

TORONTO ANNOUNCES FIRST TITLES

The Toronto International Film Festival announced a number of titles yesterday that they are planning to include as a part of a pared back TIFF.  Numerous reports yesterday indicate that TIFF will program approximately 50 films this year.  That contrasts with the common inclusion of 275-300 titles that are customarily a part of the TIFF lineup.

AMong titles announced yesterday were Francis Lee's Ammonite, Thomas Vinterberg's Another Round and Naomi Kawase's True Mothers-three films which I have had on the TFF #47 list of possibles for some time (I've been particularly high on chances that Ammonite might be a TFF choice).

While major publications have not labeled the World Premieres, a couple of the films have been referenced that way.  Indiewire tweeted that Idris Elba starrer Concrete Cowboys will be World Premiering at TIFF and The Danish Film Institute said the same about Another Round.  If that is the case, then that all but removes those titles from TFF #47 consideration.  Further, it implies that entire list of films announced by TIFF are probably World Premieres as well. Halle Berry's directing debut Bruised is also on the list of announced TIFF films.

Other interesting notes:  TIFF will have an initial five days of on-site socially distanced presentations and past that will largely be online.  Other titles will be announced as the summer progresses.

Coverage is here from Variety and Indiewire.




FALL FILM FESTS REACTING TO OSCAR DATE CHANGE

Last week Anne Thompson wrote a piece for Indiewire with her take on how the fall film fests are reacting to the recent announcement that the Oscars ceremony will take place in late April of 2021, a full two months later than their originally announced date.

Among the items of interest mentioned in the piece are:

Telluride is said to be releasing practical plans by mid-July.  Additionally, there are still hurdles for the fest to get through between now and Labor Day.  Thompson writes:

"The Telluride Film Festival is proceeding as though the festival is happening, with practical plans to be revealed by mid-July. But the festival will be dependent on whether the state of Colorado allows theaters to open in time. If not, the county will need to obtain a variance from the state to show films in theaters."

A side note of interest is that Thompson reports that the Toronto International Film Fest is supposed to announce some of their plans within the next few days:

"September’s Toronto festival, which is determined to meet any eventuality and will announce its plans before the end of June."

The third interesting tidbit is in regards to Sony Pictures Classics as they make plans within a shifting landscape.  From the article:

“We kind of plan and prepare,” said Tom Bernard, co-president of Sony Pictures Classics, who is juggling his release schedule and waiting to see who shows up for “Tenet” on July 31. “And be ready to tonally change the plan if more variables show up. We’ll send our films everywhere we can. We don’t know.”

Which sounds to me like we can probably plan on seeing some SPC projects at Telluride in some form.  I took a look at the current SPC slate in my post on June11th.


Here's Thompson's Indiewire story



THE DISTRIBS: FOCUS FEATURES

Today's look at distributors and what they might submit for TFF #47 focuses on Focus Features.  I have some confidence that Focus has some interest in submitting films for Telluride this year even amidst the pandemic.

So that begs the question...what would they bring?  Their two biggest current projects are Tom McCarthy's Stillwater and Edgar Wright's Last Night in Soho.  Stillwater's still set for release on Nov. 6th while Soho has been set for release on April 23rd.  Those release dates suggest that Stillwater is much more likely as a Focus entry for TFF #47 than Soho.  Adding to our calculation is the fact that McCarthy's Spotlight began its run to Oscar glory in 2015 at Venice followed immediately by an appearance at TFF # 42.

Focus has three other films that I believe have at least some limited possibility of making a play at Telluride: Marilyn Agrelo's Sesame Street documentary Street Gang, Emmy, Golden Globe and SAG Award nominated actress Robin Wright's feature directorial debut-Land (I think I remember Wright being at TFF in 2007) and Eddie Huang's Boogie.


Chances:

Stillwater  50%
Land 35%
Street Gang 25%
Boogie 15%
Last Night in Soho 5%

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Whispers from Vulture / Cannes Reveries and Analysis / Coppola On the Rocks / HN Updates Oscar Predix

WHISPERS FROM VULTURE

Nate Jones posted yesterday on Vulture.com a piece entitled "How Each Major Film Festival Is Responding to the Coronavirus.  Included in his assessment is Telluride along with Cannes, Venice, Toronto and New York.

The Telluride segment doesn't really offer much new save for this sentence:


"However, organizers tell Vulture they are proceeding as if the festival will happen. Otherwise, the only news out of Telluride came in mid-April, when the fest proposed extending its schedule by an extra day"

The key words being: "they (TFF) are proceeding as if the festival will happen"

No clues as to which "organizers" are the source of the claim but it's encouraging.

The Vulture article is linked here.


CANNES REVERIES AND ANALYSIS

The 73rd Cannes Film Festival was to have been going by today.  The original schedule had envisioned an opening night film on Tuesday night and as you know that did not happen.  As the original start date has come and gone a variety of outlets have offered memories and retrospectives about past Cannes as well as a number of assessments of Cannes place in the film universe.

I'm passing along a link to a couple of those here.

The first is a look at Cannes and its past from the perspective of three Indiewire veterans who all have  wealth of experience to draw on.  Anne Thompson, Eric Kohn and David Ehrlich (all of which have been kind enough over the years to participate in my annual round-up of industry veterans at the end of TFF) offer up their reminiscences of their personal experiences in southern France as well as a look at Cannes' past and potential future influence on the film industry.

Take a look at their stories here.

Meanwhile, Deadline has published the highlights of a France TV interview with Cannes President Pierre Lescrue.  Nancy Tartaglione's post went up yesterday.

Lescrue revealed that Cannes would be naming films that would have been selected would include roughly 50 titles.  Previous reports had established that the announcement of those titles will come sometime in early June.

It's my belief that some of those titles that would have played Cannes will be among the films that also play TFF and it will be interesting to parse that announcement for clues and possibilities.

The Deadline story is linked here.


COPPOLA ON THE ROCKS

photo via Empire Online

One of the films that may well be on that list next month is Sofia Coppola's latest collaboration with Bill Murray.  Her film, On the Rocks, she says, is done.  That information leads one to believe that it certainly is a possible title for the Cannes list and then some presentation among the fall fests that are currently still planning on occurring in some fashion including, perhaps, T-ride.

Coppola's last Bill Murray film was, of course, Lost in Translation which played Telluride with Coppola in attendance back in 2003.

Coppola is featured in an article this week (along with Kirsten Dunst) in Empire Online.

You can check that here.


HN UPDATES OSCAR PREDIX

In an exercise of faith or chutzpah or wishful thinking, Hollywood News' Joey Magidson has updated his Oscar predictions for the month of May.  Consequently, in the same spirit, I have mined those predictions for Telluride possibles.

Among his top ten Best Picture picks are TFF potentials: Nomadland, Ammonite and Stillwater.  Also in his top ten are Mank and The Trail of the Chicago 7 both of which could be Telluride players if they're finished.

In his second tier of Best Picture picks are other "Maybes" for Telluride: The French Dispatch, I'm Thinking of Ending Things, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Annette and On the Rocks.

Magidson's complete rundown of Oscar predictions are linked here.



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Anticipation / Oscar 2021 Thoughts / Sale Time / And Now: Berlin...

ANTICIPATION

The Hollywood Reporter has put together their list of 77 "most anticipated" films for 2020 and it continues the trend begun at the end of the 2019 to offer some films that one would think will be under consideration and/or will be offered as a possible choice for TFF #47.

THR has organized their list chronologically, at least to the extent possible.  Some highly anticipated films are not yet dated for release and are either listed as TBD's or not listed at all.

Soooo...TFF #47 options?  In chronological order:

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (10/7)

Stillwater (11/6)

Dune 12/18

News of the World (12/25)

Mank (TBD)

Hillbilly Elegy (TBD)

On the Rocks (TBD)

Half tempted to include Ridley Scott's The Last Duel and Ben Wheatley's Rebecca remake.

The complete THR list is here.

OSCAR 2021 THOUGHTS

Variety's Brent Lang and Mark Malkin got into the early Oscar prediction sweepstakes this week with an article posted on Tuesday.  They peer into their crystal ball to contemplate which films might be in serious contention for Academy Award glory a year from now.

Consequently, here's a look at their list of films through the prism of what seems the most likely Telluride players in the order presented in the article:

Ron Howard's Hillbilly Elegy

Sofia Coppola's On the Rocks

Joel Coen's MacBeth

Aaron Sorkin's The Trial of the Chicago 7

Francis Lee's Ammonite

Kimberly Pierce's This Is Jane

David Fincher's Mank

The complete Variety post is linked here.

SALE TIME

As a public service, this reminder that TFF #47 passes go on sale on Sunday, March 1.  Here's the reminder directly from the TFF #47 website:

AND NOW:  BERLIN...

The 70th Berlin International Film Festival is opening tonight and will run through Mar. 1st.  And if past os prologue, you can expect that a film or two that will premiere there will probably end up in southwest Colorado in early September.  

Last year it was Varda by Agnes.  In 2018 it was Dovlatov.  In 2017: Hostages and The Other Side of Hope.  2016: Fire at Sea and Things to Come.

The 2020 edition hs a number of films that offer tantalizing possibilities for Telluride programmers.

Indiewire posted a list of 15 films that will play the Berlinale that they say are Their most anticipated.  Among that list, I can point to a few that could be TFF #47 potentials:

Agnieszka Holland's Charlatan

Rithy Pahn's Irradiated

Matteo Garrone's Pinocchio

Phillipe Garrel's The Salt of Tears

Abel Ferrara's Siberia

Christian Petzold's Undine

You can check out all of Indiewire's Berlin Most Anticipated by clicking here.

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Awards Circuit Predicts for Oscar 2021 / Indiewire's 30 Collaborations / More on Parasite

AWARDS CIRCUIT PREDICTS FOR OSCAR 2021

Clayton Davis who runs the website Awards Circuit has jumped on the opportunity to get ahead of the Oscar game by making "year-out" predictions for next year's Oscar contenders (as well as Golden Globe guesses and SAG Awards).  As such, I am drawn to those as a way to peer into the possible future for TFF #47.

Davis lists 10 films as potential Best Picture nominees, eight of which seem to have at least some credibility as a Telluride possible.  I leave out two: In the Heights and Soul because they're summer releases.  The other eight:

Ammonite starring Kate Winslet and Saoirse Ronan from Neon (the distributor behind Parasite)
Annette starring Adam Driver and Marion Cotillard from Amazon
Dune starring Timothee Chalamet from Warner Bros.
Mank starring Gary Oldman from Netflix
News of the World starring Tom Hanks from Universal
Nomadland starring Frances McDormand from Searchlight
Stillwater starring Matt Damon from Focus Features
The Trial of the Chicago 7 starring Michael Keaton and Joseph Gordon-Levitt from Paramount

Other films that Davis mentions in other categories (and he predicts all 21 feature film categories) that might have some T-ride possibility include:

On the Rocks starring Bill Murray from A24
C'mon C'mon starring Joaquin Phoenix from A24
Blonde starring Ana de Armas - no distributor at present
I'm Thinking of Ending Things starring Jesse Plemons and Toni Collette from Netflix
Hillbilly Elegy starring Glenn Close and Amy Adams from Netflix


Take a look at the complete set of predictions here.


INDIEWIRE'S 30 COLLABORATIONS

(photo via Indiewire)

Indiewire's Zack Sharf takes a different approach to looking forward to the films of 2020 by focusing on director/actor combs that will be coming to a theater near you.  Those collaborations also offer a window on potential films that could be on screens in the San Juan Mountains come Labor Day weekend.  Some of those include:

David Fincher and Gary Oldman/Mank**
Mia Hansen-Love and Vicky Krieps/Bergman Island**
Charlie Kaufman and Jesse Plemons/I'm Thinking of Ending Things*
Leos Carax and Marion Cotillard/Annette*
Sophia Coppola and Bill Murray/On the Rocks**
Denis Villenueve and Timothee Chalamet/Dune*
Guillermo Del Toro and Cate Blanchett/Nightmare Alley*
Andrew Dominik and Ana de Armas/Blonde
Mike Mills and Joaquin Phoenix/C'mon C'mon
Taika Waititi and Michael Fassbender/Next Goal Wins*
Aaron Sorkin and Sacha Baron Cohen/The Trail of the Chicago 7*
Christian Petzold and Pauline Beer/Undine
Paul Greengrass and Tom Hanks/News of the World*
Lila Neugebauer and Jennifer Lawrence/Untitled
Francis Lee and Kate Winslet/Ammonite*


(* indicates director or actor has been to TFF)

All of the list of 30 collaborations are linked here.


MORE ON PARASITE

Parasite's Best Picture Oscar win continues to reverberate throughout the film world.  Indiewire's Kate Erbland takes a look at one of the women behind making Bog Joon-ho's film a reality: Elissa Federoff.

Take a look at the profile linked here.


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