Oscar Update: Best Actress / Oscar Experts Predict-Matt Neglia-Next Best Picture / New Trailer for Mank

 OSCAR UPDATE: BEST ACTRESS

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Actress updated since I last posted this category on  Sept. 24th.  A performer's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 performers are indicated in Bold.

1) Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (2)

2) Frances McDormand/Nomadland (1)

3) Vanessa Kirby/Pieces of a Woman (4)

4) Jennifer Hudson/Respect (7)

5) Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman (8)

6) Amy Adams/Hillbilly Elegy (6)

7) Kate Winslet/Ammonite (3)

8) Michelle Pfeiffer/French Exit (5)

9) Sophia Loren/The Life Ahead (-)

10) Andra Day/The U.S. vs. Billie Holiday (10)

Others: Meryl Streep/The Prom, Rashida Jones/On the Rocks, Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Elizabeth Moss/Shirley

OSCAR EXPERTS PREDICT/MATT NEGLIA-NEXT BEST PICTURE

Today we turn to Matt Neglia of Next Best Picture to get a sense of where he thinks the overall Oscar Race is as of late October of 2020.  Here's Matt's current view of the major players for Oscar 2021:

Among the films selected for what would have been TFF #47 Neglia predicts Oscar nominations as follows:

The Father (6): Picture, Director (Zeller), Actor (Hopkins), Supproting Actress (Colman), Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing.

Nomadland (5): Picture, Director (Ahao), Actress (McDormand), Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography.

Ammonite (1): Best Supporting Actress (Ronan)

All In: The Fight for Democracy (1): Documentary Feature

Other big players per Neglia:

Mank (12): Picture, Director (Fincher), Actor (Oldman), Supporting Actress (Seyfried), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Film Editing, Makeup/Hair, Production Design, Sound, Score.

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (7): Picture, Supporting Actor (Rylance), Supporting Actor (Cohen), Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Production Design and Song.

News of the World (7): Picture, Director (Greengrass), Supporting Actress (Zengal), Cinematography, Production Design, Sound and Score.

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (6): Picture, Actress (Davis), Actor (Boseman), Adapted Screenplay, Costume and Makeup/Hair.

Soul (4): Picture, Original Screenplay, Sound and Score.

Judas and the Black Messiah (4): Picture, Director (S. King), Supporting Actor (Kaluuya) and Film Editing.

One Night in Miami (4): Picture, Supporting Actor (Kingsley-Adir), Adapted Screenplay and Song.

Hillbilly Elegy (4): Actress (Adams), Supporting Actress (Close), Adapted Screenplay and Makeup/Hair.

Minari (2): Picture and Original Screenplay.

NEW TRAILER FOR MANK

Yes, I know, Mank was not an announced TFF #47 film but, as I have written here before...good sources have indicated to me that had TFF #47 gone forward as scheduled, Mank likely would have screened in Telluride.  So, with that note in mind...

Mank has a new trailer up this week and I thought I'd share it with you.  Here it is from YouTube:

Mank is set to debut in theaters in November and then will bow on Netflix on Dec. 4th.

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Oscar Overview from Variety / Netflix Oscar Players' Release Dates

 OSCAR OVERVIEW FROM VARIETY

I took a long look at the comprehensive Oscar predictions from Clayton Davis at Variety this week and am filing this report about what looks to be the major players.  TFF #47 films in Bold.

Here are the leading contenders based on Davis' current predictions with the list of what he says they'll earn nominations for:

Mank-10 nominations: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Costumes, Film Editing, Makeup/Hair.

The Trial of the Chicago 7-8 nominations: Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Sound, Score.

One Night in Miami-8 nominations: Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay,  Cinematography, Costumes, Film Editing, Song.

Nomadland-7 nominations: Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing.

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom- 6 nominations: Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay Production Design, Costume.

The Father- 5 nominations: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay.

News of the World- 5 nominations: Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score, Cinematography, Production Design.

Judas and the Black Messiah- 4 nominations: Picture, Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing.

Da 5 Bloods- 3 nominations: Picture, Actor, Score.

Minari- 3 nominations: Picture, Actor, Original Screenplay.

Check out all of Clayton's current predictions for Variety here.

NETFLIX OSCAR PLAYERS' RELEASE DATES

Indiewire posted a very useful article regrading what is known regarding Netflix's plans for releasing the huge body of film that is perceived as Oscar-y material.  I've parsed the article for release dates on the streaming platform (with Spike Lee's Da 5 Bloods and Charlie Kaufman's I'm Thinking of Ending Things already there):

The Trial of the Chicago 7-Oct. 16

Rebecca-Oct. 21

The Life Ahead-Nov. 13

Mank-Dec. 4

The Prom-Dec. 11

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom-Dec. 18

Still undated: The Midnight Sky, The White Tiger and Pieces of a Woman. 

Hillbilly Elegy doesn't have a date listed in the Indiewire article BUT Netflix dropped a trailer for the film this week.  P.R. materials for the trailer say that it will release on the platform on Nov. 24.

That trailer is here:

Here's the link to the entire Indiewire story.

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Mank in October and an Interesting Note / Netflix and the Chicago 7 / The Distribs: A24

MANK IN OCTOBER AND AN INTERESTING NOTE

Mank Photo montage via World of Reel 

Multiple outlets reported recently that Eric Roth, one of the producers on David Fincher's upcoming Netflix film Mank, has said that the film will premiere at some point in October.

Roth made the statement on the Pardon My Take podcast.

If it's true it suggests that the film might have been ready in time for some of the fall fest run.  As we know, however, Netflix has announced that none of their projects will be fall festing this year.

There are a couple of cracks in that armor, however.  You may recall that I wrote the following in my June 1 post:

"Further, Hammond (Deadline) opens the door slightly to there being the possibility that Netflix's announcement that it would be doing any fall fests might not be 100% carved in stone:
"Netflix, which has been a key presence in the last couple of years is sitting this one out, at least at this point."
The key sentence there being the "At least at this point".

And, as an aside...due to Telluride's secretive nature, you kind of have to wonder that if Netflix was ONLY going to screen at Telluride that they might suggest they weren't going anywhere.
Personally, I take Netflix at its word that they won't screen anywhere...but it's fun to speculate."

Now, in the Zack Sharf/Indiewire article about the possible October release for Mank, there's this sentence:

"While Netflix has not confirmed the “Mank” release date, a fall debut around October or November has been widely expected considering the title is one of the streaming giant’s big Oscar contenders. Similar to last year’s “The Irishman” and “Marriage Story,” Netflix is expected to world premiere “Mank” at one of the fall film festivals."

The Playlist's Charles Barfield seemed to second the motion writing in a story posted on Friday:

"that would give the film ample time to premiere at one of the upcoming fall festivals, which have been welcoming to Netflix films in years past, especially ones with well-known filmmakers and possible awards recognition. So, maybe we’ll see “Mank” 

In fairness, Barfield mentions Venice and Toronto as possible destinations...but still...

The Playlist story is here

So, clearly, something is off-kilter here somewhere.

It's worth keeping an eye and an ear open on this topic.

The entire Sharf/Indiewire post is here.



NETFLIX AND THE CHICAGO 7


I saw reporting over the weekend that Netflix is nearing a deal with Paramount to acquire domestic distribution for Aaron Sorkin;s The Trial of the Chicago 7.  Variety reported over the weekend that negotiations were ongoing.

I've had this Sorkin project on my TFF #47 radar since October of 2018.  The film's TFF chances for a TFF berth seemed to be 50/50.  Then with the stoppage of work in post-production because of the pandemic I had begun to think that it wouldn't be ready in time.  Now, also working against it's Telluride chances, assuming the deal gets done, is Netflix announcing that it won't be taking any of their films to film fests.

The Variety article suggests that the film might still be aimed for release prior to election day in November.

Given the Netflix weirdness detailed in the first section of this post above, I can't definitively say that Chicago 7 won't be a TFF selection.  The door is still open just a wee bit.




THE DISTRIBS: A24

A24's presence at Telluride has been a hit and miss affair since the company's first appearance at the fest in 2012 but their level of success when they have had films there has been impressive with three of the ten films they've screened at Telluride earning Best Picture nominations and, of course, having Moonlight's win after premiering at TFF in 2016.

Here's A24's past at the Telluride Film Festival":

2019: First Cow, Uncut Gems, Waves
2018: No SHOW
2017: Lean on Pete, First Reformed, Lady Bird
2016: Moonlight
2015: Room
2014:  No SHOW
2013: Under the Skin
2012: Ginger and Rosa

Ten films in eight years.  But, as I said...it's been hit or miss with No SHOW's in 2014 and 2018 but three films apiece in 2017 and 2019.

A24 has several films that could be in for a TFF play:

Sofia Coppola's On the Rocks.  Coppola re-teams with Bill Murray for the first time since her debut film, Lost in Translation, which screened at Telluride in 2003.  She hasn't returned to TFF since.  Murray was in town in 2012 in support of Hyde Park on Hudson.  Rashida Jones also stars.  also in its favor-It went into post-production last July.  I was surprised that the film wasn't on the list of films that Cannes "selected".  That makes me think that it may be headed to Venice.  With the uncertainty about how the pandemic will impact fests, films and fest-goers decision making, my sense is that we may see less Telluride/Venice crossover than in recent years.

Mike Mills' C'mon C'mon starring recent Best Actor Oscar winner Joaquin Phoenix.  Mills has never been to Telluride but he hasn't been averse to playing the fest circuit with his past films:
Thumbsucker: Sundance, Berlin, Toronto
Beginners: Toronto
20th Century Women: New York, AFI
The film went into post in December which may suggest that it hasn't had enough time to be completed.

Stephen Karam's adaptation of his Tony Award winning play The Humans.  Richard Jenkins, Amy Schumer and Beanie Feldstein star in the story of a family gathering at Thanksgiving.  It's Karam's first gig as director but he has a scripted adaptations of his own play, Speech and Debate as well as Chekhov's The Seagull.  The film went into post in October so is possibly ready.

Three other A24 titles that seem to be less likely TFF participants are False Positive, After Yang, The  and the Untitled Lila Neugebauer Project.

I appears that the Joel Coen MacBeth project starring Denzel Washington and Frances McDormand has been moved to 2021.

Chances:

On the Rocks 30%
C'mon C'mon 30%
The Humans 30%

All other A24 properties: 10%.

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SPECIAL: NO NETFLIX FOR FALL FESTS

SPECIAL: NO NETFLIX FOR FALL FESTS

It is rare that I deviate from the publishing schedule for MTFB but this news justifies and additional post today.  Anne Thompson at Indiewire has reported that Netflix has determined that they will be sending no films to any of the major fall fests Telluride included.

That report came late yesterday.

The news means that a number of high profile projects are no longer in play for TFF as well Venice, Toronto and New York.

Titles from Netflix that have been a part of the conversation:  Mank, Hillbilly Elegy, I'm Thinking of Ending Things, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom and White Tiger.

The news could impact Telluride considerably as Netflix has been a major presence at the fest over the last few years:

2015: Beasts of No Nation, Winer on Fire
2016: The Ivory Game, Into the Inferno
2017: First They Killed My Father, Wormwood
2018: Roma, Dovlatov, Girl, Reversing Roe, The Other Side of the Wind, They'll Love Me When I'm Dead
2019: Marriage Story, The Two Popes, Tell Me Who I Am, Inside Bill's Brain

Thompson's claim is pretty definitive as she writes:

"As awards groups adjust to the evolving post-pandemic reality, so will the studios. And the first up is everyone’s favorite Oscar insurgent, Netflix: While it will provide sponsorship for some major festivals in 2020, it’s not planning to send any of their films or talent to attend them."

Thompson's complete article is linked here.

Cannes Will Announce / Eyeballing Oscar 2020 / Paul Schrader Has an Idea

CANNES WILL ANNOUNCE

Cannes Film Festival head Thierry Fremaux revealed a lot about the immediate future of that fest this weekend in an interview for Screen Daily.

Variety hit the high points in a story that they posted yesterday. 

If the past is any guide, some of the decisions Fremaux and crew make will make ripples in the Telluride lineup.  As I have often mentioned, over the years I have been a Telluride attendee the two fests average of sharing 7-8 titles each outing.  Of course, the pandemic make all historic guideposts moot. 

Nevertheless, at this point I am proceeding with the assumption that past guideposts are worth referencing until otherwise disproven.  So with that, here are the big takeaways from the Fremaux interview:

1) Cannes will announce a lineup of films that would have been selected in early June (more below).
2) Cannes officials are still speaking with Venice officials with the notion of some sort of combined effort in September.
3) Fremaux says that "Cannes" films will likely be screened at a number of fests.  He gives a list (more below).

Fremuax's revelation that there will be a 73rd Cannes lineup announcement will give us a list of films to work from which, in a normal year, we would have heard on April 16th.  Assuming that it's by-and-large the films that would have played at a physical version of Cannes, I'm going to work from it to try and assess which of those films might have been crossovers. 

Using Cannes prize winners as a barometer, which I factor in, won't be a guidepost this year as Fremaux also revealed that films will not be adjudicated.  Further, it seems that the list that will be revealed will not categorize films by the section they would have been invited to be a part of (Palme d'Or competition, Un Certain Regard, etc.)

Fremaux does list fests that he suggests will be a part of the Cannes films screening process,  From the Screen International interview:

"We’ll go to Toronto, Deauville, Angoulême, San Sebastian, New York, Busan in Korea and even the Lumière festival in Lyon"

You'll note that Telluride is missing from that list but that may just be Fremaux respecting Telluride's secrecy.  I'd be gob-smacked if there are no Cannes 2020 titles playing as a part of TFF #47.

Also, the notion of "co-presenting" with Venice doesn't necessarily preclude a film from playing T-ride either. 

Couple of other notes: we heard this week that Paul Verhoeven's Benedetta and Andrew Dominik's Blonde have been officially moved to 2021 for release indicating that those two films are almost certainly off the table for fall film fests and this year's Oscars.  It may signal that those two films might be around for a 2021 edition of Cannes.

Also, a quick reminder here that Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch has been dated for release in France on Oct. 14 and in the U.S. on Oct. 16.  That could signal that the film might play at the Cannes/Venice combo and other of the fall fests including New York (and to that extent, Telluride).


I have linked the Variety story here.

And the complete interview from Screen Daily is linked here.


EYEBALLING OSCAR 2020

Indiewire's Zack Sharf cast a glance at what films might be Oscar contenders in the new reality of the Covid-19 pandemic in a post published on May 8th.  Usually, films that seem Oscar-y get a look from me as I try to puzzle out what might be worth keeping an eye on as possible players for The SHOW so this kind of article catches my eye.  That's especially true in light of the uncharted seas we're sailing right now.

So, here are some of the points Sharf makes with a thought or two from me.

Sharf leads off with Sundance films that he thinks could be players.  Almost  uniformly a Sundance play means that we can check it off the list for T-ride.  There are rare examples of films playing both Sundance and TFF: An Education, Manchester by the Sea and The Report but these are not normal times.  Sharf lists these Sundance narrative feature titles as Oscar possibles:

Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Minari
Promising Young Woman
The 40 Year Old Version
The Father

Never Rarely Sometimes Always made it into theaters for three days which could be enough to keep it out of TFF consideration.  Still, only three days?

The other four films?  If TFF programmers consider Sundance films, maybe.  Personally, I'd like to see Minari make it to the San Juans as it was largely filmed in my home state of Oklahoma.  I even had a good friend acting as the schooling tutor on set (Hello Rose Mary Baker!).

Sharf then runs down what were thought to be probable Cannes titles that have/had some Oscar potential including:

The French Dispatch
Nomadland
Annette
Memoria

Other Cannes' "titles" he lists seem to be unlikely TFF choices (ex: Soul)

I a section about Netflix films, Sharf reminds us that Spike Lee's Da 5 Bloods will drop on the streamer on June 17th.

Other Netflix titles that might be in the mix for TFF and/or Oscar:

Mank
Hillbilly Elegy
I'm Thinking of Ending Things
The Prom
Rebecca

In the remaining bulk of the post Sharf mentions many films that are still nominally scheduled for release before the end of the year.  Of note,as a Telluride-star-gazer:

The French Dispatch
Dune
The Trail of the Chicago 7
Stillwater
On the Rocks
The Woman in the Window
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Ammonite.

Sharf's complete article is linked here.



PAUL SCHRADER HAS AN IDEA

(Photo of Paul Schrader from Claudio Onorati/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock and Indiewire)

Oscar nominee Paul Schrader has his own ideas about dealing with the current state of the world of film and film festivals in particular.  His thoughts largely center around a Netflix and/or Amazon sponsored festival of festivals.

Schrader shared his concept with Indiewire's Eric Kohn recently.

Schrader explains:

"You have to have all the power players involved. If you have Netflix with its deep pockets, and the major festival curators to come up with a list of films at all levels of competition, and if you get an all-star jury of maybe two dozen actors, artists, and critics, you have an event. You have something Netflix can advertise as the Netflix fall festival of festivals. That would grab people’s attention."

Schader and Kohn also the hurdles that would have to be overcome in their back-and-forth.  It's intriguing.

Take a look at the entire interview here at Indiewire.


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L.A. Times Looks at Films That Could Still Be in Play / Annecy Proceeds Online

L.A. TIMES LOOKS AT FILMS THAT COULD STILL BE IN PLAY

Frances McDormand in Nomadland (via Indiewire)

Earlier this week The Los Angeles Times' Glenn Whipp assessed the field of films that he thinks could still be in the sites of FIlm Fests and in Oscar play.  Whipp essentially comes down to three pieces of information about each of the 29 films that make it into his story: Distributor, production status and whether the film currently has a scheduled release date.

So, let's take a look at Whipp's list and talk about what titles based on his information and assessments might be festival bound...and, more specifically, Telluride-possible.

First...films that don't seem probable for Telluride:

Two Sundance films on the list meaning, if tradition holds, that no Telluride play would be in the cards: Florian Zeller's The Father starring Anthony Hopkins and Lee Issac Chung's Minari.

Then there are a dozen films from the Whipp list that have never really felt like Telluride films.  They're films that I don't feel as if they ever planned a fall film fest appearance.

Spike Lee's Da 5 Bloods (Netflex/locked/unscheduled)

Denis Villeneuve's Dune (Warner Bors./post-prod/Dec. 18)

Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch (Searchlight/locked/Oct. 16)***

Ridley Scott's The Last Duel (20th Century/production suspended)

George C. Wolfe's Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Netflix/post-prod/unscheduled)

Paul Greengrass' News of the World (Universal/post-prod/Dec. 25)

Ryan Murphy's The Prom (Netflix/post-prod/unscheduled)

Liesl Tommy's Respect (MGM, post-prod/Dec. 25)

Docter and Powers' Soul (Disney/post-prod/Nov. 20)

Joanna Hogg's The Souvenir: Part II (A24/post-prod/unscheduled)

Christopher Nolan's Tenet (Warner Bros./locked/July 17)

Steven Spielberg's West Side Story (20th Century/post-prod/Dec. 18)

That said...within an unclear pandemic universe...who knows?  Maybe some of these films end up playing at a festival.

The next categorization are films that are locked that feel like they could be Telluride and/or other fall film fest entrants:

Francis Lee's Ammonite (Neon/unscheduled)

Charlie Kaufman's I'm Thinking of Ending Things (Netflix/unscheduled)

Edoardo Ponti's The Life Ahead (Netflix/unscheduled)

Chloe Zhao's Nomadland (Searchlight/unscheduled- a note here, the article actually says its production status is uncertain...my feeling is that it's likely complete)

Then there are the films listed as being in post-production that, should they be completed in time, seem like Telluride and fall film fest possibles (included here is the post-production start date according to IMDb):

Leos Carax's Annette (Amazon/post-11-22-19/unscheduled)

Michael Showalter's The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight/post 12-23-19/unscheduled)

Ron Howard's Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix/post-IMDb says the film is complete/unscheduled)

David Fincher's Mank (Netflix/post-2-3-20/unscheduled)***

Apichatpong Weerasethakul's Memoria (Neon/post-10-13-19/unscheduled)

George Clooney's The Midnight Sky (Netflix/post-1-2-20/unscheduled)

Sofia Coppola's On the Rocks (A24/post-7-4-19)

Glen Keane's Over the Moon (Netflix/post-1-2-20/unscheduled)

Tom McCarthy's Stillwater (Focus Features/post-1-2-20/unscheduled)

Aaron Sorkin's Trail of the Chicago 7 (Paramount/post-12-17-19/unscheduled)***

Joe Wright's The Woman in the Window (20th Century/post-10-29-18/unscheduled...though it has been dated for release a couple of times)

***I have read somewhere that both Mank and Trial of Chicago 7 will likely not be ready for any of the fall fests.

Additionally, you'd have to expect that films that went into post after the start of 2020 are suspect simply because those films would only have been in post for a few weeks before the shutdown happened: The Midnight Sky, Over the Moon, Stillwater.  

Even The Eyes of Tammy Faye with a Dec. 2019 post-production start date seem iffy to me.

Finally, for fun, let's factor in in directors who have been to Telluride in some capacity (director, writer or star) from these last two groups: Kaufman, Zhao, Fincher, Clooney, Coppola, McCarthy, Sorkin, Wright and I'll take a stab at five of these films making a Telluride lineup for 2020:

1) Nomadland

2) I'm Thinking of Ending Things

3) On the Rocks

4) Hillbilly Elegy

5) Ammonite

Whipp's complete article with his commentary is linked here.

ANNECY PROCEEDS ONLINE

The Annecy Animation Film Fest, the largest animated film festival on the planet announced a few weeks back that this year's event had been cancelled but the fest will move forward with a completely online version of the event.  The online fest will run June 15-20.

The details were reported by John Hopewell and Jamie Lang for Variety last Thursday.

Over the years, several films that have played the Annecy Fest have gone onto to play over the Labor Day weekend in Telluride.  Examples that come to mind include: Loving Vincent and Chico and Rita.

The Variety story includes claims by the fest organizers that many of its customary players will be back for the virtual event.

May 18th is the date for the fest to announce its competition lineup.

The full story is here.

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Oscar Predix in a Time of Uncertainty / Cannes Deadlines Extended / R-e-s-p-e-c-t M-o-v-e-s

OSCAR PREDIX IN A TIME OF UNCERTAINTY

Erik Anderson who runs Oscar predicting website Awards Watch came out this week with predictions for Best Picture, Directing and all four acting categories.

He did so with full disclaimers about not really knowing what the film world might look like for the rest of 2020.

So I played with Anderson's guesses in as far as potential Telluride players.  The 10 films he predicts as Best Picture players are:

Ammonite
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Next Goal Wins
Nomadland
On the Rocks
The Trial of the Chicago 7
West Side Story

So, I thought I'd rank these 10 films in order of their TFF #47 chances.  Remember that over the past few years Telluride has averaged nearly three films that end up as Best Picture nominees.

1) Nomadland
2) On the Rocks
3) Mank
4) Ammonite
5) Next Goal Wins
6) The Trial of the Chicago 7
7) Minari
8) Da 5 Bloods
9) News of the World
10) West Side Story

Interestingly, Anderson lists another 15 films as he makes his predictions in the other five categories in his post.  When you look at those you'll see some things jump out. 

For example, Netflix is just represented in his list of 10 Best Pic predictions by Da 5 Bloods and Mank but he has an additional six Netflix films scattered throughout these five categories: Hillbilly Elegy, I'm Thinking of Ending Things, Midnight Sky, Blonde, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, The Life Ahead and The Prom.

Netflix's robust presence over the past five years and especially the past two suggests that looking at Netflix's lineup should tell us to expect around 4-5 titles as Telluride possibilities.

Long time Telluride presence Sony Pictures Classics has a couple of films in this list of 15 additional films.  One is The Father which bowed at Sundance and as such is an unlikely to play TFF.  The other is French Exit starring Michelle Pfeiffer.  So that's something to consider.

The complete post from Anderson is linked here.


CANNES DEADLINES EXTENDED

As we await word about the ultimate fate about the Cannes Festival-postponement to June/July.. postponement to an even later date in 2020...or perhaps even cancellation for 2020...and then what that domino falls, how it will affect the other film fest dominoes on the calendar... we got word this week that the organizers had extended deadlines for submissions as a way of dealing with the rupture that has occurred in the film industry as a result of Covid-19.

Details of those extensions are here from Variety and The Wrap.

Meanwhile, a Cannes Film Fest focal point, the Palais de Festival has been transformed into a homeless shelter to provide shelter during France's Covid-19 lockdown.

Indiewire has that story linked here.


R-E-S-P-E-C-T  M-O-V-E-S

Photo of Jennifer Hudson and Aretha Franklin via Vanity Fair

The Aretha Franklin biopic starring Jennifer Hudson hasn't been on my TFF radar as its release date was set for some time to be for August.  However, this past week that date was moved to Christmas Day.  So suddenly, assuming that date holds, maybe we have to think about the film as a possibility.

Speculation was that the date change was only partially due to the Coronavirus pandemic.  Roger Friedman's Showbiz 911 suggests that Hudson is getting a lot of Oscar buzz and that could have also been a factor in the decision.

The Showbiz 911 story is kinked here.


And here's the early teaser for the film via YouTube:

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Gone, Gone, Gone / Gold Derby Looks at Oscar 2021...

GONE, GONE, GONE

Indiewire's Ryan Lattanzio wrote a piece that went up on Sunday afternoon...after passes went on sale for TFF #47.  Of most import to MTFB readers was the inclusion of some title speculation for this year's iteration of TFF.  Some of those titles you've seen consistently in this space.  Some are new...

Among the films mentioned in the article:

Mank
Nomadland
Hillbilly Elegy
Dune
Minari
Passing

I was able to purchase mine after a tense few minutes and a couple of hiccups.  That means that my wife and I will be attending our 15th consecutive fest.

The entire Lattanzio post is linked here.


You may notice that friend of MTFB Chris Schiller's tweet about the pass sale made the article.


GOLD DERBY LOOKS AT OSCAR 2021...

I've been dipping into the early Oscar speculation for the coming year as a way of gathering clues fro films that could also be on the lineup announcement for TFF #47 six months from now.  Gold Derby's look is among the most thorough around and provides us with a multiplicity of candidates to consider.

Their 2021 preview provides release date info, director and distributor.  All of those items can help as we try to sniff out some Telluride potentials.

So, what can we find that seems like it's worth contemplating for TFF from the Gold Derby list.  Among their "Leading Contenders:

The Father/Zeller/Sony Pictures Classics/Fall
Hillbilly Elegy/Howard/Netflix/Fall
MacBeth/Coen/A24/Fall
Mank/Fincher/Netflix/Fall
News of the World/Greengrass/Universal/Dec. 25
Next Goal Wins/Waititi/Searchlight/Fall
Nightmare Alley/Del Toro/Searchlight/Fall
Trial of the Chicago 7/Sorkin/Paramount/Sept. 25

Among their "Strong Contenders":

Ammonite/Lee/Neon/Fall
Dune/Villeneuve/Warner Bros./Dec. 18
Good Morning, Midnight/Clooney/Netflix/Fall
Ironbark/Cooke/Lionsgate/Fall
On the Rocks/S. Coppola/A24/Fall
Prisoner 760/Macdonald/BBC/Fall
Stillwater/McCarthy/Focus/Nov. 6


And from their "Possible Contenders":

Annette/Carax/Amazon/Fall
Blonde/Dominik/Netflix/Fall
The Eyes of Tammy Faye/Showalter/Searchlight/Fall
French Exit/Jacobs/Sony Picture Classics/Fall
Nomadland/Zhao/Searchlight/Fall
Red, White and Water/Neugebauer/A24/Fall

The complete Gold Derby post is linked here.


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Anticipation / Oscar 2021 Thoughts / Sale Time / And Now: Berlin...

ANTICIPATION

The Hollywood Reporter has put together their list of 77 "most anticipated" films for 2020 and it continues the trend begun at the end of the 2019 to offer some films that one would think will be under consideration and/or will be offered as a possible choice for TFF #47.

THR has organized their list chronologically, at least to the extent possible.  Some highly anticipated films are not yet dated for release and are either listed as TBD's or not listed at all.

Soooo...TFF #47 options?  In chronological order:

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (10/7)

Stillwater (11/6)

Dune 12/18

News of the World (12/25)

Mank (TBD)

Hillbilly Elegy (TBD)

On the Rocks (TBD)

Half tempted to include Ridley Scott's The Last Duel and Ben Wheatley's Rebecca remake.

The complete THR list is here.

OSCAR 2021 THOUGHTS

Variety's Brent Lang and Mark Malkin got into the early Oscar prediction sweepstakes this week with an article posted on Tuesday.  They peer into their crystal ball to contemplate which films might be in serious contention for Academy Award glory a year from now.

Consequently, here's a look at their list of films through the prism of what seems the most likely Telluride players in the order presented in the article:

Ron Howard's Hillbilly Elegy

Sofia Coppola's On the Rocks

Joel Coen's MacBeth

Aaron Sorkin's The Trial of the Chicago 7

Francis Lee's Ammonite

Kimberly Pierce's This Is Jane

David Fincher's Mank

The complete Variety post is linked here.

SALE TIME

As a public service, this reminder that TFF #47 passes go on sale on Sunday, March 1.  Here's the reminder directly from the TFF #47 website:

AND NOW:  BERLIN...

The 70th Berlin International Film Festival is opening tonight and will run through Mar. 1st.  And if past os prologue, you can expect that a film or two that will premiere there will probably end up in southwest Colorado in early September.  

Last year it was Varda by Agnes.  In 2018 it was Dovlatov.  In 2017: Hostages and The Other Side of Hope.  2016: Fire at Sea and Things to Come.

The 2020 edition hs a number of films that offer tantalizing possibilities for Telluride programmers.

Indiewire posted a list of 15 films that will play the Berlinale that they say are Their most anticipated.  Among that list, I can point to a few that could be TFF #47 potentials:

Agnieszka Holland's Charlatan

Rithy Pahn's Irradiated

Matteo Garrone's Pinocchio

Phillipe Garrel's The Salt of Tears

Abel Ferrara's Siberia

Christian Petzold's Undine

You can check out all of Indiewire's Berlin Most Anticipated by clicking here.

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Awards Circuit Predicts for Oscar 2021 / Indiewire's 30 Collaborations / More on Parasite

AWARDS CIRCUIT PREDICTS FOR OSCAR 2021

Clayton Davis who runs the website Awards Circuit has jumped on the opportunity to get ahead of the Oscar game by making "year-out" predictions for next year's Oscar contenders (as well as Golden Globe guesses and SAG Awards).  As such, I am drawn to those as a way to peer into the possible future for TFF #47.

Davis lists 10 films as potential Best Picture nominees, eight of which seem to have at least some credibility as a Telluride possible.  I leave out two: In the Heights and Soul because they're summer releases.  The other eight:

Ammonite starring Kate Winslet and Saoirse Ronan from Neon (the distributor behind Parasite)
Annette starring Adam Driver and Marion Cotillard from Amazon
Dune starring Timothee Chalamet from Warner Bros.
Mank starring Gary Oldman from Netflix
News of the World starring Tom Hanks from Universal
Nomadland starring Frances McDormand from Searchlight
Stillwater starring Matt Damon from Focus Features
The Trial of the Chicago 7 starring Michael Keaton and Joseph Gordon-Levitt from Paramount

Other films that Davis mentions in other categories (and he predicts all 21 feature film categories) that might have some T-ride possibility include:

On the Rocks starring Bill Murray from A24
C'mon C'mon starring Joaquin Phoenix from A24
Blonde starring Ana de Armas - no distributor at present
I'm Thinking of Ending Things starring Jesse Plemons and Toni Collette from Netflix
Hillbilly Elegy starring Glenn Close and Amy Adams from Netflix


Take a look at the complete set of predictions here.


INDIEWIRE'S 30 COLLABORATIONS

(photo via Indiewire)

Indiewire's Zack Sharf takes a different approach to looking forward to the films of 2020 by focusing on director/actor combs that will be coming to a theater near you.  Those collaborations also offer a window on potential films that could be on screens in the San Juan Mountains come Labor Day weekend.  Some of those include:

David Fincher and Gary Oldman/Mank**
Mia Hansen-Love and Vicky Krieps/Bergman Island**
Charlie Kaufman and Jesse Plemons/I'm Thinking of Ending Things*
Leos Carax and Marion Cotillard/Annette*
Sophia Coppola and Bill Murray/On the Rocks**
Denis Villenueve and Timothee Chalamet/Dune*
Guillermo Del Toro and Cate Blanchett/Nightmare Alley*
Andrew Dominik and Ana de Armas/Blonde
Mike Mills and Joaquin Phoenix/C'mon C'mon
Taika Waititi and Michael Fassbender/Next Goal Wins*
Aaron Sorkin and Sacha Baron Cohen/The Trail of the Chicago 7*
Christian Petzold and Pauline Beer/Undine
Paul Greengrass and Tom Hanks/News of the World*
Lila Neugebauer and Jennifer Lawrence/Untitled
Francis Lee and Kate Winslet/Ammonite*


(* indicates director or actor has been to TFF)

All of the list of 30 collaborations are linked here.


MORE ON PARASITE

Parasite's Best Picture Oscar win continues to reverberate throughout the film world.  Indiewire's Kate Erbland takes a look at one of the women behind making Bog Joon-ho's film a reality: Elissa Federoff.

Take a look at the profile linked here.


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Oscar 2020-This and That / Other Oscar Takes: Analysis of What Went Down Sunday Night / An Early Look at Oscar for 2020 Films / Blog Updates

OSCAR 2020-THIS AND THAT

The dizziness from the Best Picture win for Bong Joon-ho's Parasite on Sunday night has begun to subside leaving a little clear-headedness to think about what occurred.

- Are the Oscars changed forever?  Does the diversification of the membership account for Parasite's success?  Maybe.  Perhaps the Oscars became a truly international award on Sunday.  You might argue that the internationalization has been creeping into the Oscar ceremony over the past decade.  Think of the Oscar Best Directors of recent years:

Hazanavicius/The Artist 2011
Lee/Life of Pi 2012
Cuaron/Gravity and Roma 2013 and 2018
Inarritu/Birdman and The Revenant 2014 and 2015
Del Toro/The Shape of Water 2017
and now Bong for Parasite.

Only Damien Chazelle  who won for La La Land (2016) hales from the USA.

It will be interesting to see if this trend continues.

-Parasite became the first film to win both International (or Foreign Language) Feature and Best Picture.

- Fully subtitled, I think it's the first Best Picture for which that is true although a friend of mine pointed out that past winners have included some sub-titling: Slumdog Millionaire, The Godfather films, Dances With Wolves.

- Parasite becomes the first Best Picture/Palme D'or combination winner since Marty in 1955.

- I took a look at how Telluride films have fared over the last decade in terms of total Oscar wins for each year.  Here's how that breaks down:

2019- 8
2018- 6
2017- 7
2016- 13 (this was the year of Moonlight, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea and Arrival)
2015- 4
2014- 7
2013- 10 (Gravity and 12 Years a Slave)
2012- 5
2011- 7
2010- 7

That's 74 Oscar wins over the decade meaning that TFF films win 7.4 Oscars per year.  That means, thanks to Parasite, Ford v Ferrari, Marriage Story and Judy, that this year's Oscar haul was better than average.  Best year, as you can see above, was 2016 with 13 , followed by 2013 with 10.  The most meager Oscar year was 2015 with four wins-that was the year of Spotlight.


OTHER OSCAR TAKES: ANALYSIS OF WHAT WENT DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT

In addition to my commentary about Oscar 2020 above I have also included some analysis posted this week from a couple of others.  Here they are:

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Ben Travers/Indiewire

Zack Sharf/Indiewire



AN EARLY LOOK AT OSCAR FOR 2020 FILMS

Photo from IMDb

Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture seemed to be the first up from an Oscar watching website with a rundown of films he thinks we'll be talking about a year from now as Oscar contenders.  There willy, be others coming soon and I'll include some of those early, early looks through the prism of what are films that might land at Telluride for TFF #47.

Among the films that Matt includes:

Aaron Sorkin's The Trial of the Chicago 7- IMDb says that it went into post-production last December.  Distrib: Paramount.  Release date: Sept. 25th

Paul Greengrass' News of the World- in post production last November.  Distrib: Universal.  Release: Dec. 25th.

David Fincher's Mank- in post this month.  Distrib: Netflix.  Release: TBA

Ron Howard's Hillbilly Elegy- in post last August. Distrib: Netflix.  Release November

Denis Villenueve's Dune- in post starting in July, 2019.  Distrib: Warner Bros.  Release: Dec. 18th.

Edgar Wright's Last Night in Soho- in post in August.  Distrib: Focus Features.  Release: Sept. 25th.

Lila Neugebauer's Red, White and Water- in post production in August.  Distrib: A24. Release: TBA

Francis Lee's Ammonite- in post since last April.  Distrib: Neon (coming off of Parasite this year).  Release: TBA

Guillermo Del Toro's Nightmare Alley- currently filming.  Distrib: Searchlight.  Release: TBA.

Chloe Zhao's Nomadland- in post since last March.  Distrib: Searchlight.  Release: TBA

The complete article is linked here including Matt's opening predictions for six major categories.


BLOG UPDATES

A Couple of bits of info.  I have updated the "Unofficial TFF Oscar History" page to reflect what occurred during the just concluded Oscar season.  Additionally, the "Selected TFF History" page has been updated to include the information from TFF #46.  Check those pages out. 

Still to come are the updates to the "Expanded Telluride Film Festival History-Part Two: 1996 to the Present.  I still have to synthesize the material from TFF programs for Fests from 2006-2019.  The links to the official online version of each of those programs are still on that page.



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Ten Bets 2019 #3 / A Couple to Keep an Eye On / Country Music Preview in San Fran

Welcome to Friday...hope you have a great weekend...


TEN BETS 2019 #3

Here's your weekly update concerning where I think the best bets are right now for making the lineup for the 46th Telluride Film Festival.

Last week's Ten Bets (plus some bonus speculation):

10) Jojo Rabbit
9) The Good Liar
8) Nomadland
7) Untitled Noah Baumbach Project
6) The Climb
5) Little Women
4) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
3) Family Romance LLC
2) Varda by Agnes
1) Parasite

Other films in serious play: The Goldfinch, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Untitled Todd Haynes Project, Atlantics, The Laundromat, Radioactive, Country Music, The Lighthouse, Harriet, The Truth, Synonyms, Motherless Brooklyn, Ad Astra, Molly, Lucy in the Sky.


This week's Ten Bets...

10) Nomadland
9) Judy
8) Motherless Brooklyn
7) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
6) Untitled Noah Baumbach Project
5) The Climb
4) Little Women
3) Family Romance LLC
2) Agnes by Varda
1) Parasite

The Good Liar and Jojo Rabbit drop into the "Other films in serious play" category which also includes: The Goldfinch, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Untitled Todd Haynes Project, Atlantics, The Laundromat, Radioactive, Country Music/Ryman Concert, The Lighthouse, Harriet, The Truth, Synonyms, Ad Astra, Molly, Lucy in the Sky.


A COUPLE TO KEEP AN EYE ON

Sophia Loren via Variety

Normally when I run across items about a new film that is getting off the ground and it sounds like a project that I should keep in mind as a possible Telluride choice down the line, I slap that into a folder on my laptop called "Future Telluride".

The oldest item I currently have in there is a notice that Steve McQueen was going to direct a biopic about Paul Robeson.  That's from 2014.   The oldest one that I have that is currently relevant is a notice from Variety about Reese Witherspoon would be in Pale Blue Dot from Fox Searchlight.  That's become Natalie Portman in Lucy in the Sky.  Reese Witherspoon is now a producer on the film.  It's still at Fox Searchlight and is scheduled for release sometime this fall.

All of that is to tell you that a project announcement has to really grab my eye for me to slap it on this page before or instead of putting it into the "Future Telluride" folder.  A couple of those happened within the last 48 hours.

First, a report from Variety that 84 year old screen legend Sophia Loren is working a new film.  The film entitled The Life Ahead is a re-imagining of  a Romain Gary novel that was previously adapted into 1978's Foreign Film Oscar winner Madame Rosa starring Simone Signoret.

Loren hasn't appeared in a feature film since Rob Marshall's Nine in 2009.

TFF #47 anyone?

That Variety story is linked here.

And if that wasn't enough, news that director David Fincher (Se7en, , Zodiac, The Social Network) is set to direct a biopic about Oscar winning screen writer Herman Mankiewicz (winning for Citizen Kane).  The film is Fincher's first feature since 2014's Gone Girl. 

The film is tentatively titled Mank and is said to feature recent Oscar winner Gary Oldman in the role.  Fincher is planning to shoot the film in black and white and the production is set up at Netflix.

Again, TFF #47???

I have linked stories on the Fincher project here from:

The Hollywood Reporter

Variety

SlashFilm 



COUNTRY MUSIC PREVIEW IN SAN FRAN

Ken Burns and PBS are going to preview his new documentary in San Francisco on July 24th.  The SFStation.com reported that earlier this week.

The preview is scheduled to go from 7:30 to 10:00 that evening and will be followed by a Q+A.  That timing leads me to believe that it is probably a screening of the Ryman Auditorium concert I wrote about last week.

Normally I'd think this kind of screening would disqualify the film from a TFF bow but I still think there's a good chance that it makes  an appearance at TFF.

Linked here is the SFStation interview with Burns.


That does it for this week.  I'll have more on Monday.  Enjoy the weekend!

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