Oscar Update: Best Supporting Actor / Variety's Biggest Movies / Deadline's Most Influential Films of the 21st Century / NBP's Best Bets for International Feature

 OSCAR UPDATE: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Supporting Actor updated since I last posted this category on  Dec. 3rd.  A performer's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 performers are indicated in Bold.

1) Sacha Baron Cohen/Trial of the Chicago 7 (2)

2) Leslie Odom Jr./One Night in Miami (1)

3) Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah (7)

4) Chadwick Boseman/Da 5 Bloods (5)

5) Bill Murray/On the Rocks (3)

6) Paul Raci/Sound of Metal (-)

7) Stanley Tucci/Supernova (8)

8) Mark Rylance/Trial of the Chicago 7 (4)

9) David Stratharin/Nomadland (6)

10) Charles Dance/Mank (-)

Other possibles: Glynn Turman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Eddie Redmayne/Trial of the Chicago 7, Aldis Hodge/One Night in Miami, Frank Langella/Trial of the Chicago 7.

Hot: Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah, Paul Raci/Sound of Metal, Charles Dance/Mank

Not: Bill Murray/On the Rocks, Mark Rylance/Trial of the Chicago 7, David Stratharin/Nomadland

On Thursday I'll update predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay.

VARIETY'S BIGGEST MOVIES

In a story entitled "The Most Anticipated Movies Coming in 2021, Variety chronologically names 33 films to their list.  Of that 33, seven are films that I feel like could be TFF #48 films:

The French Dispatch (which Variety says is a "summer" release)

Dune (10/1)

The Last Duel (10/15)

Nightmare Alley (December)

And films for which a release date has yet to be announced:

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Soggy Bottom (or whatever Paul Thomas Anderson ultimately calls it)

Annette

The complete listing of all 33 films from Variety is linked here.

DEADLINE'S MOST INFLUENTIAL FILMS OF THE 21ST CENTURY

Deadline staff folks have come up with a listing of what they say are the most influential films of the 21st century (so far).  There are 21 films named.  Of that 21 six where TFF films:

Parasite

Roma

The Shape of Water

Moonlight

Slumdog Millionaire

There Will Be Blood (which I always count as a TFF film due the screening of a chunk of the film as part of the 2007 tribute to Paul Thomas Anderson)

I can't really argue with the choices from TFF but a surprising omission, to me at least, is Steve McQueen's 12 Years a Slave.

The complete list and commentary can be found via this link.

NBP SAYS THESE ARE YOUR BEST BETS FOR INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Next Best Picture's Tom O'Brien writes in a piece dated  Dec. 30, 2020 that there are 10 films out in front of the pack in the International Feature Oscar race.  Of his list of 10, a couple would have played at a TFF #47: Charlatan (Czech Republic) and Never Gonna Snow Again (Poland).

I would toss in the notion that there are a couple of other TFF #47 choices that could also land in the convo:  Apples (Greece) and Notturno (Italy).

The complete list from NBP is linked here.

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Oscar Update: Best Supporting Actor / Indiewire's Top 20 and TFF / Submissions Are In for Oscar's International Films

 OSCAR UPDATE: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Supporting Actor updated since I last posted this category on  Nov. 5th.  A performer's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 performers are indicated in Bold.

1) Leslie Odom, Jr./One Night in Miami (3)

2) Sacha Baron Cohen/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (1)

3) Bill Murray/On the Rocks (4)

4) Mark Rylance/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (5)

5) Chadwick Boseman/Da 5 Bloods (2)

6) David Startharin/Nomadland (6)

7) Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah (8)

8) Stanley Tucci/Supernova (-)

9) Frank Langella/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (9)

10) Yahya Abdul-Mateen II/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (-)

Others: Eddie Redmayne/The Trial of the Chicago 7, Charles Dance/Mank, Arliss Howard/Mank, Thomas Pelphrey/Mank

Hot: Odom/One Night in Miami, Tucci/Supernova, Abdul-Mateen II/Trial of the Chicago 7

Not: Boseman/Da 5 Bloods

INDIEWIRE"S TOP 20 and TFF

Indiewire's Eric Kohn has posted his selection of the 20 best films for 2020 and the list contains films that played at TFF #46 as well as films that were on the TFF #47 announced list.  TFF films that were on Kohn's list are:

#12 The Assistant (TFF #46)

#7 The Climb (TFF #46)

#4 Nomadland (TFF #47)

#1 First Cow (TFF #46)

Kohn's complete list is linked here.

SUBMISSIONS ARE IN FOR OSCAR'S INTERNATIONAL FILMS

The deadline has come and gone for submission for International Film Oscar submissions.  As you might expect, some TFF #47 choices were submitted.  Gregory Ellwood of The Playlist has handicapped the field and among the more likely players for an Oscar nomination in his assessment are these TFF #47 selections:

Apples/Greece

Charlatan/Czech Republic

Notturno/Italy

Never Gonna Snow Again/Poland

Here's Ellwood's complete list of predictions from The Playlist.

Additionally, from Matt neglia at Next Best Picture, here's the complete list of all submissions.

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Oscar Update: Best Supporting Actor / Oscar Experts: Erik Anderson-Awards Watch / Greece Picks Apples

 OSCAR UPDATE: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Supporting Actor updated since I last posted this category on  Oct. 5th.  A performer's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 performers are indicated in Bold.

1) Sasha Baron Cohen/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (2)

2) Chadwick Boseman/Da 5 Bloods (1)

3) Leslie Odom Jr./One Night in Miami (11)

4) Bill Murray/On the Rocks (8)

5) Mark Rylance/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (7)

6) David Stratharin/Nomadland (4)

7) Eddie Redmayne/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (9)

8) Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah (-)

9) Frank Langella/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (10)

10) Charles Dance/Mank (-)

OSCAR EXPERTS PREDICT: ERIK ANDERSON-AWARDS WATCH

Erik Anderson of Awards Watch has this current take on the Oscars.  Here are the films that he views as the biggest players (TFF #47 films in Bold.

Mank (10): Best Picture, Director (Fincher), Supporting Actor (Dance), Supporting Actress (Seyfried), Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Score, Sound

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (8): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Cohen), Supporting Actor (Rylance), Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Score, Song

News of the World (8): Best Picture, Actor (Hanks), Supporting Actress (Zengel), Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Sound

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (7): Best Picture, Director (Wolfe), Actor (Boseman). Actress (Davis), Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Makeup

Nomadland (6): Best Picture, Director (Zhao), Actress (McDormand), Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography

The Father (6): Best Picture, Director (Zeller), Actor (Hopkins), Supporting Actress (Colman), Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing

Da 5 Bloods (5): Best Picture, Director (Lee), Actor (Lindo), Supporting Actor (Boseman), Score

Hillbilly Elegy (5): Best Picture, Director (Howard), Actress (Adams), Supporting Actress (Close), Makeup

Minari (5): Best Picture, Actor (Yeun), Supporting Actress (Yuh-jung), Original Screenplay, Score

One Night in Miami (4): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Odom Jr.), Adapted Screenplay, Song

Ammonite (2): Actress (Winslet), Costumes

GREECE PICKS APPLES

Indiewire reports that Greece has officially selected Christos Nikou's Apples as its contestant for the Best International Feature Oscar.  The film was one of the 29 features announced by the Telluride Film Festival as being selected to its 47th edition.

The description of the film from IMDb:

"Amidst a worldwide pandemic that causes sudden amnesia, middle-aged Aris finds himself enrolled in a recovery program designed to help unclaimed patients build new identities."

The complete story of the selection is linked here from Indiewire.

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Oscar 2021 First Attempt-Best Supporting Actor / TFF Films Running Totals / Festival Posters for Nomadland

 OSCAR FIRST ATTEMPT 2021-BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

MTFB continues its first pass at predicting Oscar nominees for 2020-21 in various major categories.  Today we're looking at Best Supporting Actor with, as always, a focus on those performances that were a part of the list of 29 films that TFF released that would have been screened as a part of TFF #47.  Performers designated with *** are in films that may not be released prior to the Feb, 28, 2021 Oscar eligibility deadline.   TFF#47 performers are in Bold:

1) Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

2) Sasha Baron Cohen/The Trial of the Chicago 7

3) Yahya Abdul-Mateen II/The Trial of the Chicago 7

4) David Strathairn/Nomadland

5) LaKeith Stanfield/Judas and the Black Messiah***

6) Kinglsey Ben-Adir/One Night in Miami

7) Mark Rylance/The Trail of the Chicago 7

8) Bill Murray/On the Rocks

9) Eddie Redmayne/The Trial of the Chicago 7

10) Frank Langella/The Trial of the Chicago 7

11) Leslie Odom Jr./One Night in Miami

TFF FILMS RUNNING TOTALS:

Beginning with today's post, here are the running totals of predicted nominations regarding TFF #47 films.  I'll add to this over the next week as I add the screenplay categories.

Nomadland: Best Picture, Director (Zhao), Actress (McDormand), Supporting Actor (Stratharin)

Ammonite: Best Picture, Actress (Winslet), Supporting Actress (Ronan).  Maybe: Director (F. Lee)

The Father: Actor (Hopkins), Supporting Actress (Colman).  Maybe: Best Picture, Director (Zeller)

FESTIVAL POSTERS FOR NOMADLAND

The Movie Waffler tweeted photos of posters that were created for each of Nomadland's festival appearances this past weekend including one created for the Telluride in L.A. drive-in screening of the film that took place on Sept. 11th:

The others are also cool:

For Venice:

For Toronto:

For New York:

 

The Movie Waffler website is linked here.
 

 

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