Oscar #95 in the Books / Wild Life Trailer / Visitations: Oscar Winner Sarah Polley

OSCAR #95 IN THE BOOK

Here are your winners from last night's 95th Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE: Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST DIRECTION: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert/Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST ACTRESS: Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST ACTOR: Brendan Fraser/The Whale 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Women Talking

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Navalny

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: Naatu Naatu/RRR

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST EDITING: Everything Everywhere All at  Once

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR: The Whale

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Avatar: The Way of Water

BEST SOUND: Top Gun: Maverick

BEST ANIMATED SHORT: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and The Horse

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: An Irish Goodbye

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: The Elephant Whispers

COMMENTARY:

TFF films go 1 of 17 on Oscar night #95 with the only winning coming for Sarah Polley's Adapted Screenplay for Women Talking,  TAR, which led all Telluride films this year with six nominations ended the night with no wins.  TAR was in good company as The Banshees of Inisherin went 0/9, Elvis was 0/8 and The Fabelman's was 0/7.

Everything Everywhere All at Once won seven Oscars, the most since Slumdog Millionaire back at the 2009 ceremony. Picture, Directors, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Editing.

All Quiet on the Western Front picked up a four trophies for a very solid night: International Feature, Cinematography, Production Design and Original Score.

The only other film to win more than one Oscar was The Whale winning for Best Actor and Makeup/Hair.

My track record was 18/23 for a rate of  78.3%  That's about par for my course historically.  I was particularly pleased that I landed all three of the winners in the Shorts categories.  I don't think I've ever done that.

I missed Actor (I had Butler) and Supporting Actress (Condon), Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.

Now that Oscar 2023 is in the books, it's time to move to speculating about films that make the TFF #50 lineup in earnest.  One of the first things to look at will be those way-too-early Oscar '24 predictions that will appear in the next few days.  

WILD LIFE TRAILER

One of the buzziest titles at Telluride last September was Wild Life.  It's from the same crew-Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi-  that did Free Solo and The Rescue.  The film wasn't screened as a part of South By Southwest last night.

In conjunction with the SXSW screening and ahead of its public release comes a trailer which you can see here via YouTube:

VISITATIONS

Oscar winner Sarah Polley talks to Deadline about her award winning Women Talking.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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SUNDAY SPECIAL: MTFB'S OSCAR FINAL

SUNDAY SOECIAL: MTFB'S OSCAR FINAL 

Here it is everyone, everywhere...my final Oscar winners predictions for 2022-23.  TFF films in Bold.

BEST PICTURE:

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Possible Spoilers: All Quiet, Top Gun, Banshees

BEST DIRECTION

Winner(s): Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert/Everything Everywhere All at Once

Spoiler: Speilberg

BEST ACTRESS

Winner: Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once

Spoiler: Cate Blanchett/TAR

BEST ACTOR

Winner: Austin Butler/Elvis

Spoilers: Brendan Fraser/The Whale or Colin Farrell/Banshees

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Winner: Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin

Spoilers: Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere. Angela Bassett/BP: Wakanda Forever

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Winner: Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once

Spoiler: No one.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Winner: Women Talking

Spoilers: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Spoliers: Banshees or TAR

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Spoilers: Argentina 1985 or Close

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Winner: Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

Spoiler: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Winner: Navalny

Spoilers: Fire of Love or All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Spoilers: Babylon, Fabelmans

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Winner: Naatu Naatu/RRR

Spoiler: Hold My Hand/Top Gun

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Spoiler: Elvis

BEST EDITING

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at  Once

Spoiler: Top Gun: Maverick

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Winner: Babylon

Spoiler: Elvis

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Winner: Elvis

Spoiler: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

Winner: Elvis

Spoilers: All Quiet on the Western Front or The Whale

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water

Spoiler: Top Gun: Maverick

BEST SOUND

Winner: Top Gun: Maverick

Spoiler: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Winner: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and The Horse

Spoilers: An Ostrich Told Me and My Year of Dicks

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Winner: An Irish Goodbye

Spoilers: Le Pupille or The Red Suitcase

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Winner: The Elephant Whispers

Spoiler: Stranger at the Gate or The Martha Mitchell Effect

THOUGHTS

The 14 categories that will determine who wins your Oscar pool:

Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Documentary, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Production Design, Makeup/Hair and the three Shorts categories.

Tightest races from what I can see: Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Score, Editing and Documentary Short.

As for Telluride we're likely to see the second straight year and the third of the last five years where the winner did not play at TFF.  Telluride had been on a long streak from Slumdog in 2009 to Nomadland in 2021.

The streak:

2009: Slumdog Millionaire

2010: The Hurt Locker (not at TFF)

2011: The King's Speech

2012: The Artist

2013: Argo

2014: 12 Years a Slave

2015: Birdman

2016: Spotlight

2017: Moonlight

2018:The Shape of Water

2019: Green Book (not at TFF)

2020 Parasite

2021: Nomadland

2022: CODA (not at TFF)

Optimally it looks like the best TFF films might achieve from the 17 TFF nominations is seven Oscars.  I am currently predicting one win and that's for Sarah Polley's Adapted Screenplay for Women Talking and that is certainly no lock.  TFF"s next best bet is Cate Blanchett for Best Actress in TAR.  

There's a very real possibility that for the first time since 2009 that no TFF film will take home an Oscar.

If my predictions are 100% accurate (and I average 70-75%) this is how Oscar #95 turns out:

Everything Everywhere wins six: Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Editing.

Elvis wins three: Actor, Makeup/Hair and Costumes.

All Quiet wins three: International Feature, Cinematography and Original Score.

Single wins for:

Banshees: Supporting Actress

Women Talking: Adapted Screenplay

GDT's Pinocchio: Animated Feature

Navlany: Doc Feature

RRR: Song

Babylon: Production Design

Avatar: The Way of Water: Visual Effects

Top Gun: Maverick: Sound

The Boy, the Mole, the fox and the Horse: Animated Short

An Irish Goodbye: Live Action Short

The Elephant Whisperers: Doc Short

Finally, this year's Oscar race has been wildly unpredictable so expect some surprises tonight.

I'll have a post-Oscars post up tomorrow for my regularly scheduled blogpost.  And we'll start it all over again for TFF #50 and Oscar #96. 

Enjoy the madness.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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MTFB Oscar Update: Visual and Sound and Shorts / U.S. Trailer for Tori and Lokita / Visitations: Nighy, Polley and More

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE

Here's a third pass at predicting Visual Effects, Sound and the Shorts categories   Previous rankings are to the right of each film in parentheses.  TFF films are in Bold.  Final predictions from MTFB are coming on Sunday morning in a special Oscar's morning post.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: The Way of Water (1)

2) Top Gun: Maverick (2)

3) All Quiet on the Western Front (3)

4) The Batman (4)

5) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (5)

BEST SOUND

1) Top Gun: Maverick (1)

2) All Quiet on the Western Front (3)

3) Elvis (2)

4) Avatar: The Way of Water (4)

5)The Batman (5)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse (1)

2) An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake... (2)

3) My Year of Dicks (4)

4) Ice Merchants (5)

5) The Flying Sailor (3)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) The Elephant Whisperers (4)

2) Stranger at the Gate (3)

3) The Martha Mitchell Effect (1)

4) How Do You Measure a Year? (2)

5) Haulout (5)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) An Irish Goodbye (2)

2) Le Pupille (1)

3) The Red Suitcase (3)

4) Ivalu (5)

5) The Night Ride (4)

Thoughts: Best Sound seemed almost a lock for Top Gun: Maverick two weeks ago but there is a surge of sentiment for All Quiet and Elvis isn't out of the question  

As always, the Shorts categories are virtually impenetrable.  The closest thing to a lock there appears to be for Animated Short with The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and The Horse.  Live Action and Doc Shorts are a mess.  Live Action is probably down to the top two: An Irish Goodbye and Le Pupille while Doc Shorts are all over the place.  Literally any of the five nominees are still possible winners.

U.S  TRAILER FOR TORI AND LOKITA

The Dardenne Brothers returned to Telluride in 2022 with Tori and Lokita.  It was the brothers' first time back to TFF since 2014's Two Days One Night.  Now, ahead of its March 24th limited release we have a new trailer for the U.S.  Here that is from YouTube:

VISITATIONS

Women Talking: Dede Gardner with The Hollywood Reporter and Sarah Polley with Indiewire.

Living: Bill Nighy with Vanity Fair.

TAR: Todd Field with Deadline.

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On: Dean Fleischer Camp with Variety.

Close: Lukas Dhont with Deadline.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

MTFB Oscar Update: Screenplays and More / Oscar Thoughts / New Trailer for All the Beauty... / Visitations: Blanchett, Polley, Dhont and More

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

Here's the next to last predictions for both screenplay categories as well as Score, Song, Cinematography and Editing.  My final predictions will go up in a special post on Sunday, Mar.12th. a film's previous rank is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF films are indicated in Bold.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Women Talking (1)

2) All Quiet on the Western Front (2)

3) Living (4)

4) Glass Onion (3)

5) Top Gun: Maverick (5)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

2) The Banshees of Inisherin (1)

3) TAR (3)

4) The Fabelmans (4)

5) Triangle of Sadness (5)

SCORE

1) Babylon (1)

2) All Quiet on the Western Front (3)

3) The Fabelmans (2)

4) The Banshees of Inisherin (4)

5) Everything Everywhere All at Once (5)

SONG

1) Naatu Naatu/RRR (1)

2) Hold My Hand/Top Gun: Maverick (2)

3) Lift Me Up/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (3)

4) This Is a Life/Everything Everywhere (4)

5) Applause/Tell It Like a Woman (5)

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) All Quiet on the Western Front (1)

2) Elvis (2)

3) TAR (3)

4) Empire of Light (4)

5) Bardo (5)

EDITING

1) Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

2) Top Gun: Maverick (1)

3) Elvis (3)

4) The Banshees of Inisherin (4)

5)TAR (5)

OSCAR THOUGHTS

Of today's six categories, four of them are real toss-ups at this point: both Screenplay categories as well as Score and Editing.

Original Screenplay might be the tightest between Banshees and EEAAO.  As a matter of fact, it's the closest of any of the 23 categories at this point.  

Then, in order of what feels like the next tightest races:

Editing  (Between EEAAO and Maverick)

Score (Between Babylon and All Quiet)

Adapted Screenplay (Between Women Talking and All Quiet)

 NEW TRAILER FOR ALL THE BEAUTY

Ahead of its March 19th unveiling on HBO we have a new trailer and poster (above) for Laura Poitras' Oscar nominated Doc All the Beauty and the Bloodshed which screened at TFF #49 once on the last day of the fest.  Here's the trailer via YouTube:

VISITATIONS

TAR: Cate Blanchett with The Los Angeles Times.

Women Talking: Sarah Polley with Deadline and Kate Hallett with The Hollywood Reporter.

Close: Director Lukas Dhont with Awards Watch and also with A.Frame.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

MTFB Oscar Update / More on the Passing of Tom Luddy / Visitations: Sarah Polley on Women Talking

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE

Here's a second pass at predicting Visual Effects, Sound and the Shorts categories   Previous rankings are to the right of each film in parentheses.  TFF films are in Bold.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: The Way of Water (1)

2) Top Gun: Maverick (2)

3) All Quiet on the Western Front (3)

4) The Batman (4)

5) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (5)

BEST SOUND

1) Top Gun: Maverick (1)

2) Elvis (2)

3) All Quiet on the Western Front (3)

4) Avatar: The Way of Water (4)

5)The Batman (5)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse (1)

2) An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake... (2)

3) The Flying Sailor (3)

4) My Year of Dicks (4)

5) Ice Merchants (5)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) The Martha Mitchell Effect (3)

2) How Do You Measure a Year? (1)

3) Stranger at the Gate (4)

4) The Elephant Whisperers (2)

5) Haulout (5)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Le Pupille (1)

2) An Irish Goodbye (2)

3) The Red Suitcase (3)

4) The Night ride (5)

5) Ivalu (4)

MORE ON THE PASSING OF TOM LUDDY

On Tuesday The Guardian posted an incredible homage to TFF co-founder, the late Tom Luddy.  It's notable for the sheer number of people included and the reverence that is reveled for Luddy.  Among those included in the memorials are: Paul Schrader, Laurie Anderson, Errol Morris, Tilda Swinton, Salman Rushdie, Alice Waters and Werner Herzog.

Take a look at the post.  It is incredible.

VISITATIONS

Women Talking: Sarah Polley with The Hollywood Reporter.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

MTFB Oscar Update / BAFTA Winners / Directors Guild Winners / Visitations: Polley and Poitras

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE

I'm continuing my first attempts at predicting what will win Oscars on the night of March 12th.  Today's  updated categories: International, Animated and Documentary Features as well as Production Design, Costume and Makeup/Hair.  Films are ranked in order of likelihood to win with their previous ranking in parentheses. I have highlighted TFF nominees in Bold.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) All Quiet on the Western Front (1)

2) Argentina 1985 (2)

3) Close (3)

4) EO (4)

5) The Quiet Girl (5)

ANIMANTED FEATURE

1) GDT's Pinocchio (1)

2) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (2)

3) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (3)

4) Turning Red (4)

5) The Sea Beast (5)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Fire of Love (4)

2) Navalny (3)

3) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (1)

4) All That Breathes (2)

5) The House of Splinters (5)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Elvis (1)

2) Babylon (2)

3) All Quiet on the Western Front (4)

4) Avatar: The Way of Water (3)

5) The Fabelmans (5)

COSTUME DESIGN

1) Elvis (1)

2) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2)

3) Babylon (3)

4) Everything Everywhere All at Once (4)

5) Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (5)

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Elvis (1)

2) The Whale (2)

3) All Quiet on the Western Front (4)

4) The Batman (3)

5) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (5)

BAFTA WINNERS

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) named its "Best of" for 2022 last night and Edward Berger's All Quiet on the Western Front was the big winner picking up seven trophies including Best Film and Direction.

TFF Films that picked up hardware were:

Cate Blanchett winning Best Actress for TAR

Charlotte Wells for Best Debut for a British Writer, Director or Producer for Aftersun

TFF adjacent documentary (it was screened in Elk Park on the Wednesday night prior to TFF beginning) Navalny was named Best Documentary.

The complete BAFTA winners list is here.

DIRECTOR GUILD WINNERS

The DGA named Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert Best Director for a Feature Film for Everything Everywhere All at Once besting, among others Todd Field/TAR who was the only DGA nominee for a Feature Film from TFF.

From TFF, Charlotte Wells win Best First Feature for Aftersun.

The Directors Guild list of winners is linked here.

VISITATIONS

WOMEN TALKING: Sarah Polley at Deadline.com.

ALL THE BEAUTY AND THE BLOODSHED: Laura Poitras at NBR.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

Tom Luddy 1943-2023 / MTFB Oscar Update: Screenplays and More / Detective Work / Visitations: Claire Foy of Women Talking

TOM LUDDY 1943-2023

(photo via Indiewire)

As we found out on Valentine's Day, Telluride Film Festival co-founder Tom Luddy died on Feb. 13th  in California.  I posted the Fest's press release on Tuesday in a special MTFB post.  You can see that here. 

Luddy's passing was duly noted by many film industry outlets:

Variety

The Hollywood Reporter

Deadline

Indiewire

The Wrap

The Los Angeles Times

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE:SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

Here's the first update of my current predictions for what will win Oscars in the Screenplay categories as well as Score, Song, Cinematography and Editing.  Previous rank for each film is in parentheses to the right and TFF films are in Bold.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Women Talking (1)

2) All Quiet on the Western Front (2)

3) Glass Onion (4)

4) Living (3)

5) Top Gun: Maverick (5)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

2) Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

3) TAR (4)

4) The Fabelmans (3)

5) Triangle of Sadness (5)

SCORE

1) Babylon (1)

2) The Fabelmans (2)

3) All Quiet on the Western Front (3)

4) The Banshees of Inisherin (4)

5) Everything Everywhere All at Once (5)

SONG

1) Naatu Naatu/RRR (1)

2) Hold My Hand/Top Gun: Maverick (2)

3) Lift Me Up/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (3)

4) This Is a Life/Everything Everywhere (4)

5) Applause/Tell It Like a Woman (5)

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) All Quiet on the Western Front (2)

2) Elvis (1)

3) TAR (3)

4) Empire of Light (4)

5) Bardo (5)

EDITING

1) Top Gun: Maverick (1)

2) Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

3) Elvis (3)

4) The Banshees of Inisherin (4)

5)TAR (5)

Comment:

In a couple of close races I have shuffled the top two.  In Original Screenplay I have moved Banshees ahead of Everything Everywhere and in Cinematography I have moved All Quiet ahead of Elvis.  In both instances the race is tight and fluid.  I could change back tomorrow.  As an extra side note, I could see TAR crashing the party in both of these categories as well.

I'll be updating predictions for Animated, International and Documentary features as well as Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair in next Monday's post.

DETECTIVE WORK

Last year I was really a believer early on that Living would make the trip to Telluride despite having played at Sundance seven months earlier.  Some of that was a hunch but some if it was also based on recent TFF history.  

Prior to TFF #49, there had been two other recent instances where high profile awards contenders screened at Sundance originally and then moved to Telluride.  In 2016 Casey Affleck's Oscar winning turn in Manchester by the Sea bowed at Sundance and then Affleck was a tribute recipient at TFF #43.  Then in 2019 Adam Driver followed the same route with The Report at Sundance followed by a tribute and Telluride slot for the film plus Marriage Story.

In 2020, The Father was on the released list of films that would have screened at TFF #47 had it happened.  Anthony Hopkins was said to have been a tribute recipient.  Of course, Hopkins would win the Oscar for Best Actor.

In each of these cases the films also shared the distinction of being distributed by outfits that have had good ties to TFF.  In the cases of Manchester and The Report it was Amazon Studios and for The Father and Living it was Sony Pictures Classics.

All of that is to get to this which is the late January news that SPC bought distribution rights to Sundance film A Little Prayer from writer/director Angus MacLachlan (Junebug and Abundant Acreage Available) .  And what really got to me look at this was a post from Gold Derby this week mentioning 2024 Oscar buzz (yes, already) for David Strathairn's performance. 

A little bell started dinging in my head.  It fits the recent profile.  So, maybe for TFF #50, A Little Prayer from SPC starring Strathairn and a possible tribute for the longtime actor.  Don't be surprised if that is on the first "Ten Bets: for TFF #50 in June.

David Strathairn's IMDb page.

Angus MacLachan's IMDb page.

VISITATIONS

WOMEN TALKING:  Claire Foy for Harpers's Bazaar.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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MTFB Oscar Update: Best Picture, Direction and Acting / Oscar Thoughts / Visitations: Bill Nighy on Living

Here are my latest predictions for who/what will win Oscars on March 12th for Best Picture, Direction and the four acting categories.

BEST PICTURE

1) Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

2) The Banshees of Inisherin (3)

3) The Fabelmans (2)

4) TAR (5)

5)  Top Gun: Maverick (4)

6) Elvis (6)

7) All Quiet on the Western Front (7)

8) Triangle of Sadness (8)

9) Avatar: The Way of Water (9)

10) Women Talking (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert/Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

2) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans (1)

3) Todd Field/TAR (4)

4) Martin McDonagh/The Bnashees of Inisherin (3)

5) Ruben Ostlund/Triangle of Sadness (5)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Cate Blanchett/TAR (1)

2) Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

3) Andrea Riseborough/To Leslie (5)

4) Michelle Williams/The Fabelmans (3)

5) Ana de Armas/Blonde (4)

BEST ACTOR

1) Brendan Fraser/The Whale (1)

2) Austin Butler/Elvis (2)

3) Colin Farrell/The Banshees of Inisherin (3)

4) Bill Nighy/Living (4)

5) Paul Mescal/Aftersun (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Angela Bassett/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (1)

2) Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

3) Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere All at Once (3)

4) Stephanie Hsu/Everything Everywhere All at Once (5)

5) Hong Chau/The Whale (4)

BEST SUPPORTNG ACTOR

1) Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

2) Brendan Gleeson/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

3) Judd Hirsch/The Fabelmans (4)

4) Barry Keoghan/The Banshees of Inisherin (3)

5) Bryan Tyree Henry/Causeway (5)

OSCAR THOUGHTS:

Only one substantial change and that is in Best Direction where I have moved The Daniels of Everything Everywhere ahead of Steven Spielberg for the win on March 12th.

Otherwise, two weeks after I originally predicted these six categories, the leaders remain the same with Everything Everywhere winning Best Pic and the acting awards going to Blanchett, Fraser, Bassett and Quan.

We'll  re-visit these six categories in on Feb. 26th and then again for my final predictions.

What are the tightest categories at present, at least from my perspective:

Picture: Giving  Everything Everywhere a serious fight are: Banshees, Fabelmans, Maverick and maybe even TAR. Heck, even Elvis and All Quiet are outside shots.

Direction: It appears to be down to The Daniels and Spielberg.

Actress: Blanchett and Yeoh.  Tight.

Actor: Fraser, Butler and Farrell.  Also tight.

Original Screenplay: Everything Everywhere and Banshees.

Score: Babylon and Fabelmans

Documentary: Any of them except House of Splinters.

Cinematography: Elvis, All Quiet and TAR.

Editing: Maverick and Everything Everywhere

Makeup/Hair: Elvis and The Whale.

And, as always, the three Shorts categories.

You can hear Anne Thompson and Eric Kohn talk about what they believe are the tightest categories as a part of this week's Screen Talk podcast from Indiewire.  That's linked here.

VISTATTIONS

LIVING: Bill Nighy from SPC's Twitter account.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

MTFB Oscar Update: First Winner Predictions Part Four / Visitations: Polley, Whishaw, Buckley and More

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE FIRST WINNER PREDICTIONS PART FOUR

Here's the last of my first pass at predicting what films and performances will win Oscars on March 12th.  Over the past two weeks I have predicted the other 18 categories.  Going forward I will continue to update categories at the same intervals culminating in a final set of predictions on Oscar morning.  Today's initial predictions for the final five categories follow.  TFF films in Bold.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: The Way of Water

2) Top Gun: Maverick

3) All Quiet on the Western Front

4) The Batman

5) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

BEST SOUND

1) Top Gun: Maverick

2) Elvis

3) All Quiet on the Western Front

4) Avatar: The Way of Water

5)The Batman

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

2) An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake...

3) The Flying Sailor

4) My Year of Dicks

5) Ice Merchants

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) How Do You Measure a Year?

2) The Elephant Whisperers

3) The Martha Mitchell Effect

4) Stranger at the Gate

5) Haulout

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Le Pupille

2) An Irish Goodbye

3) The Red Suitcase

4) Ivalu

5) The Night Ride

Comments:

The Visual Effects win for Avatar/Water and Sound win for TG: Maverick seem pretty likely at this point. 

As always the Short Films categories are really anyone's guess, though the buzz for The Boy, the Mole etc. has it feeling like the most certain winner in any of the three shorts categories.  The Doc and Live Action Shorts categories are totally up in the air.

After the initial prognostications over the past two weeks I have TFF films winning four statues on March 12th:

Cate Blanchett/Best Actress/TAR

Women Talking/Adapted Screenplay

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed/Best Doc

Le Pupille/Best Live Action Short

And among the 20 feature categories, win totals predicted:

Films with multiple predicted wins:

Everything Everywhere wins three Oscars for Best Picture,  Ke Huy Quan/Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay.

Elvis with four: Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.

The Fabelmans with one: Steven Spielberg/Best Direction.

Top Gun: Maverick with two: Editing and Sound

Films with single predicted wins:

TAR: Cate Blanchett/Lead Actress.

The Whale: Brendan Fraser/Lead Actor.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: Angela Bassett/Supporting Actress.

Women Talking: Adapted Screenplay.

Babylon: Original Score.

RRR: Original Song.

All Quiet on the Western Front: International Feature.

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio: Animated Feature.

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed: Documentary Feature.

Avatar: The Way of Water: Visual Effects.

I can still see the possibility of Everything Everywhere winning up to six.  The three I have predicted at this point plus Direction, Actress and Editing.

I have Banshees being shut out, but it's still very much alive for Original Screenplay and Colin Farrell is still a viable Best Actor winner.  We'll see how that evolves over the next few weeks.

VISITATIONS

WOMEN TALKING: Sarah Polley and Ben Whishaw for London Live.  Jesse Buckley on the BBC Women's Hour.

ARMAGEDDON TIME: James Gray for FLC Luminaries (YouTube).

ONE FINE MORNING: Mia Hansen-Love for FLC Luminaries (YouTube).

SR.: Chris Smith for FLC Luminaries (YouTube).

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

MTFB Oscar Update: First Oscar Winner Predictions Part Three / The Film Stage's 100 Most Anticipated

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: OSCAR WINNER PREDICTIONS PART THREE

I'm continuing my first attempts at predicting what will win Oscars on the night of March 12th.  Today I'm adding these categories to the 12 I have previously predicted in the last two posts:  International Feature, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Production Design, Costume Design and Makeup/Hair.  Films are ranked in order of likelihood to win. I have highlighted TFF nominees in Bold.

INETRNATIONAL FEATURE

1) All Quiet on the Western Front

2) Argentina 1985

3) Close

4) EO

5) The Quiet Girl

ANIMANTED FEATURE

1) GDT's Pinocchio

2) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

3) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

4) Turning Red

5) The Sea Beast

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

2) All That Breathes

3) Navalny

4) Fire of Love

5) The House of Splinters

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Elvis

2) Babylon

3) Avatar: The Way of Water

4) All Quiet on the Western Front

5) The Fabelmans

COSTUME DESIGN

1) Elvis

2) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

3) Babylon

4) Everything Everywhere All at Once

5) Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Elvis

2) The Whale

3) The Batman

4) All Quiet on the Western Front

5) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Through 18 predicted categories here's the rundown of what Oscar night looks like if I'm 100% accurate:

Everything Everywhere wins three Oscars for Best Picture,  Ke Huy Quan/Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay.

Elvis with four: Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.

The Fabelmans with one: Steven Spielberg/Best Direction.

TAR with one: Cate Blanchett/Lead Actress.

The Whale with one: Brendan Fraser/Lead Actor.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever with one: Angela Bassett/Supporting Actress.

Women Talking with one: Adapted Screenplay.

Babylon with one: Original Score.

RRR with one: Original Song.

Top Gun: Maverick with one: Editing.

All Quiet on the Western Front with one: International Feature

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio with one: Animated Feature.

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed with one: Documentary Feature

Only two more feature categories remain to be initially predicted: Sound and Visual Effects.  Those along with the three shorts categories will be predicted in Thursday's post.

Couple of notes here.  

Everything Everywhere could easily add three more Oscars to its haul: Direction, Lead Actress and Editing.

Categories that seem most "locked" at the moment are Supporting Actor: Quan, Song: Naatu Naatu from RRR, International Feature: All Quiet...

Categories that seem to be the most contentious: Picture, Direction (Spielberg and The Daniels), Actress (Blanchett and Yeoh), Actor (Fraser and Butler with Farrell also possible), Original Screenplay (Everything Everywhere and Banshees), Documentary (literally any of them except House of Splinters),Cinematography (Again, any of the five except for Bardo), Editing (TG: Maverick and Everything Everywhere) and Makeup/Hair (Elvis and The Whale).

THE FILM STAGE'S 100 MOST ANTICIPATED AND TFF

Last month The Film Stage posted the 100 films that it have the most anticipation for in 2023.  I kind of spaced that out as I was focused on Oscar season.  Nevertheless, a month later, I have finally run through their list for possible players for TFF #50.

Last year, six films that I highlighted from The Film Stage list actually made it to TFF #49:

The Wonder

Bones and All

Broker

One Fine Morning

Women Talking 

TAR

Several films were on the 2022 list and reappear this year as they weren't released in 2022 including:

Maestro, The Holdovers, Poor Things, The Killer, Zone of Interest and Killers of the Flower Moon.

Here are maybe the best possibilities from their 2023 list:

100) El Conde

98) My Crime

93) The Royal Hotel

81) Emilia Perez

77) Butterfly Jam

72) Monster

60) Poor Things

59) AND

57) Nightbitch

48) Strangers

40) The Holdovers

38) The Island

36) Maestro

20) Fallen Leaves

19) Stone Mattress

18) Die My Love

16) The Killer

15) The End

13) The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

12) Priscilla

8) Zone of Interest

6) May/December

3) The Way of the Wind

2) Killers of the Flower Moon

1) How Do You Live?

The complete two part article is linked here.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays