SUNDAY SPECIAL: MTFB'S OSCAR FINAL

SUNDAY SOECIAL: MTFB'S OSCAR FINAL 

Here it is everyone, everywhere...my final Oscar winners predictions for 2022-23.  TFF films in Bold.

BEST PICTURE:

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Possible Spoilers: All Quiet, Top Gun, Banshees

BEST DIRECTION

Winner(s): Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert/Everything Everywhere All at Once

Spoiler: Speilberg

BEST ACTRESS

Winner: Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once

Spoiler: Cate Blanchett/TAR

BEST ACTOR

Winner: Austin Butler/Elvis

Spoilers: Brendan Fraser/The Whale or Colin Farrell/Banshees

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Winner: Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin

Spoilers: Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere. Angela Bassett/BP: Wakanda Forever

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Winner: Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once

Spoiler: No one.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Winner: Women Talking

Spoilers: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Spoliers: Banshees or TAR

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Spoilers: Argentina 1985 or Close

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Winner: Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

Spoiler: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Winner: Navalny

Spoilers: Fire of Love or All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Spoilers: Babylon, Fabelmans

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Winner: Naatu Naatu/RRR

Spoiler: Hold My Hand/Top Gun

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Spoiler: Elvis

BEST EDITING

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at  Once

Spoiler: Top Gun: Maverick

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Winner: Babylon

Spoiler: Elvis

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Winner: Elvis

Spoiler: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

Winner: Elvis

Spoilers: All Quiet on the Western Front or The Whale

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water

Spoiler: Top Gun: Maverick

BEST SOUND

Winner: Top Gun: Maverick

Spoiler: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Winner: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and The Horse

Spoilers: An Ostrich Told Me and My Year of Dicks

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Winner: An Irish Goodbye

Spoilers: Le Pupille or The Red Suitcase

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Winner: The Elephant Whispers

Spoiler: Stranger at the Gate or The Martha Mitchell Effect

THOUGHTS

The 14 categories that will determine who wins your Oscar pool:

Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Documentary, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Production Design, Makeup/Hair and the three Shorts categories.

Tightest races from what I can see: Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Score, Editing and Documentary Short.

As for Telluride we're likely to see the second straight year and the third of the last five years where the winner did not play at TFF.  Telluride had been on a long streak from Slumdog in 2009 to Nomadland in 2021.

The streak:

2009: Slumdog Millionaire

2010: The Hurt Locker (not at TFF)

2011: The King's Speech

2012: The Artist

2013: Argo

2014: 12 Years a Slave

2015: Birdman

2016: Spotlight

2017: Moonlight

2018:The Shape of Water

2019: Green Book (not at TFF)

2020 Parasite

2021: Nomadland

2022: CODA (not at TFF)

Optimally it looks like the best TFF films might achieve from the 17 TFF nominations is seven Oscars.  I am currently predicting one win and that's for Sarah Polley's Adapted Screenplay for Women Talking and that is certainly no lock.  TFF"s next best bet is Cate Blanchett for Best Actress in TAR.  

There's a very real possibility that for the first time since 2009 that no TFF film will take home an Oscar.

If my predictions are 100% accurate (and I average 70-75%) this is how Oscar #95 turns out:

Everything Everywhere wins six: Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Editing.

Elvis wins three: Actor, Makeup/Hair and Costumes.

All Quiet wins three: International Feature, Cinematography and Original Score.

Single wins for:

Banshees: Supporting Actress

Women Talking: Adapted Screenplay

GDT's Pinocchio: Animated Feature

Navlany: Doc Feature

RRR: Song

Babylon: Production Design

Avatar: The Way of Water: Visual Effects

Top Gun: Maverick: Sound

The Boy, the Mole, the fox and the Horse: Animated Short

An Irish Goodbye: Live Action Short

The Elephant Whisperers: Doc Short

Finally, this year's Oscar race has been wildly unpredictable so expect some surprises tonight.

I'll have a post-Oscars post up tomorrow for my regularly scheduled blogpost.  And we'll start it all over again for TFF #50 and Oscar #96. 

Enjoy the madness.

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MTFB Oscar Update: International, Animated, Doc and More / Writer's Guild and Independent Spirits / Visitations: Blanchett and Slate

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE

We're staring down the last six days before the Oscars on Sunday night.  The last of the Guilds have spoken as well as the Independent Spirit Awards.  Oscar voting ends tomorrow.  It's almost time people.

Here are the next to last predictions for the categories of International Feature, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature,  Original Score, Original Song and Makeup/Hair.  Final predictions for all 23 categories will go up here on Sunday morning.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) All Quiet on the Western Front (1)

2) Argentina 1985 (2)

3) Close (3)

4) EO (4)

5) The Quiet Girl (5)

ANIMANTED FEATURE

1) GDT's Pinocchio (1)

2) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (2)

3) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (3)

4) Turning Red (4)

5) The Sea Beast (5)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Navalny (2)

2) Fire of Love (1)

3) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (3)

4) All That Breathes (4)

5) The House of Splinters (5)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Elvis (1)

2) Babylon (2)

3) All Quiet on the Western Front (3)

4) Avatar: The Way of Water (4)

5) The Fabelmans (5)

COSTUME DESIGN

1) Elvis (1)

2) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2)

3) Babylon (3)

4) Everything Everywhere All at Once (4)

5) Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (5)

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Elvis (1)

2) The Whale (2)

3) All Quiet on the Western Front (4)

4) The Batman (3)

5) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (5)

WRITER'S GUILD

Sarah Polley won Best Adapted Screenplay at the WGA as well as the USC Scripter Award (which focuses exclusively on Adapted screenplays) this past weekend.  That's a good indicator that the TFF #49 film is in prime position to pick up that Oscar on Sunday.  There had been a sense that All Quiet on the Western Front might have the inside track to the Oscar.  That sentiment seems quelled now with this weekend's double win for Polley.

INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARDS

TFF #49 was represented in the list of Independent Spirit Awards on Saturday by wins for:

Best Documentary: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Best Cinemtography: TAR

Robert Altman Award: Women Talking

Best First Feature: Aftersun

Everything Everywhere All at Once was the big winner of the evening with wins for Best Feature, Direction, Actress (Yeoh), Supporting Actor (Quan), Breakthrough Performance (Hsu), Screenplay and Editing.

Complete winners are linked here at the Spirit's website.

VISITATIONS

TAR: Cate Blanchett with Variety.

MARCEL THE SHELL: Jenny Slate with Indiewire.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Screenplays and More / Oscar Thoughts / New Trailer for All the Beauty... / Visitations: Blanchett, Polley, Dhont and More

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

Here's the next to last predictions for both screenplay categories as well as Score, Song, Cinematography and Editing.  My final predictions will go up in a special post on Sunday, Mar.12th. a film's previous rank is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF films are indicated in Bold.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Women Talking (1)

2) All Quiet on the Western Front (2)

3) Living (4)

4) Glass Onion (3)

5) Top Gun: Maverick (5)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

2) The Banshees of Inisherin (1)

3) TAR (3)

4) The Fabelmans (4)

5) Triangle of Sadness (5)

SCORE

1) Babylon (1)

2) All Quiet on the Western Front (3)

3) The Fabelmans (2)

4) The Banshees of Inisherin (4)

5) Everything Everywhere All at Once (5)

SONG

1) Naatu Naatu/RRR (1)

2) Hold My Hand/Top Gun: Maverick (2)

3) Lift Me Up/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (3)

4) This Is a Life/Everything Everywhere (4)

5) Applause/Tell It Like a Woman (5)

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) All Quiet on the Western Front (1)

2) Elvis (2)

3) TAR (3)

4) Empire of Light (4)

5) Bardo (5)

EDITING

1) Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

2) Top Gun: Maverick (1)

3) Elvis (3)

4) The Banshees of Inisherin (4)

5)TAR (5)

OSCAR THOUGHTS

Of today's six categories, four of them are real toss-ups at this point: both Screenplay categories as well as Score and Editing.

Original Screenplay might be the tightest between Banshees and EEAAO.  As a matter of fact, it's the closest of any of the 23 categories at this point.  

Then, in order of what feels like the next tightest races:

Editing  (Between EEAAO and Maverick)

Score (Between Babylon and All Quiet)

Adapted Screenplay (Between Women Talking and All Quiet)

 NEW TRAILER FOR ALL THE BEAUTY

Ahead of its March 19th unveiling on HBO we have a new trailer and poster (above) for Laura Poitras' Oscar nominated Doc All the Beauty and the Bloodshed which screened at TFF #49 once on the last day of the fest.  Here's the trailer via YouTube:

VISITATIONS

TAR: Cate Blanchett with The Los Angeles Times.

Women Talking: Sarah Polley with Deadline and Kate Hallett with The Hollywood Reporter.

Close: Director Lukas Dhont with Awards Watch and also with A.Frame.

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MTFB Oscar Update / BAFTA Winners / Directors Guild Winners / Visitations: Polley and Poitras

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE

I'm continuing my first attempts at predicting what will win Oscars on the night of March 12th.  Today's  updated categories: International, Animated and Documentary Features as well as Production Design, Costume and Makeup/Hair.  Films are ranked in order of likelihood to win with their previous ranking in parentheses. I have highlighted TFF nominees in Bold.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) All Quiet on the Western Front (1)

2) Argentina 1985 (2)

3) Close (3)

4) EO (4)

5) The Quiet Girl (5)

ANIMANTED FEATURE

1) GDT's Pinocchio (1)

2) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (2)

3) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (3)

4) Turning Red (4)

5) The Sea Beast (5)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Fire of Love (4)

2) Navalny (3)

3) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (1)

4) All That Breathes (2)

5) The House of Splinters (5)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Elvis (1)

2) Babylon (2)

3) All Quiet on the Western Front (4)

4) Avatar: The Way of Water (3)

5) The Fabelmans (5)

COSTUME DESIGN

1) Elvis (1)

2) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2)

3) Babylon (3)

4) Everything Everywhere All at Once (4)

5) Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (5)

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Elvis (1)

2) The Whale (2)

3) All Quiet on the Western Front (4)

4) The Batman (3)

5) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (5)

BAFTA WINNERS

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) named its "Best of" for 2022 last night and Edward Berger's All Quiet on the Western Front was the big winner picking up seven trophies including Best Film and Direction.

TFF Films that picked up hardware were:

Cate Blanchett winning Best Actress for TAR

Charlotte Wells for Best Debut for a British Writer, Director or Producer for Aftersun

TFF adjacent documentary (it was screened in Elk Park on the Wednesday night prior to TFF beginning) Navalny was named Best Documentary.

The complete BAFTA winners list is here.

DIRECTOR GUILD WINNERS

The DGA named Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert Best Director for a Feature Film for Everything Everywhere All at Once besting, among others Todd Field/TAR who was the only DGA nominee for a Feature Film from TFF.

From TFF, Charlotte Wells win Best First Feature for Aftersun.

The Directors Guild list of winners is linked here.

VISITATIONS

WOMEN TALKING: Sarah Polley at Deadline.com.

ALL THE BEAUTY AND THE BLOODSHED: Laura Poitras at NBR.

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MTFB Oscar Update: First Oscar Winner Predictions Part Three / The Film Stage's 100 Most Anticipated

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: OSCAR WINNER PREDICTIONS PART THREE

I'm continuing my first attempts at predicting what will win Oscars on the night of March 12th.  Today I'm adding these categories to the 12 I have previously predicted in the last two posts:  International Feature, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Production Design, Costume Design and Makeup/Hair.  Films are ranked in order of likelihood to win. I have highlighted TFF nominees in Bold.

INETRNATIONAL FEATURE

1) All Quiet on the Western Front

2) Argentina 1985

3) Close

4) EO

5) The Quiet Girl

ANIMANTED FEATURE

1) GDT's Pinocchio

2) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

3) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

4) Turning Red

5) The Sea Beast

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

2) All That Breathes

3) Navalny

4) Fire of Love

5) The House of Splinters

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Elvis

2) Babylon

3) Avatar: The Way of Water

4) All Quiet on the Western Front

5) The Fabelmans

COSTUME DESIGN

1) Elvis

2) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

3) Babylon

4) Everything Everywhere All at Once

5) Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Elvis

2) The Whale

3) The Batman

4) All Quiet on the Western Front

5) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Through 18 predicted categories here's the rundown of what Oscar night looks like if I'm 100% accurate:

Everything Everywhere wins three Oscars for Best Picture,  Ke Huy Quan/Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay.

Elvis with four: Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.

The Fabelmans with one: Steven Spielberg/Best Direction.

TAR with one: Cate Blanchett/Lead Actress.

The Whale with one: Brendan Fraser/Lead Actor.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever with one: Angela Bassett/Supporting Actress.

Women Talking with one: Adapted Screenplay.

Babylon with one: Original Score.

RRR with one: Original Song.

Top Gun: Maverick with one: Editing.

All Quiet on the Western Front with one: International Feature

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio with one: Animated Feature.

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed with one: Documentary Feature

Only two more feature categories remain to be initially predicted: Sound and Visual Effects.  Those along with the three shorts categories will be predicted in Thursday's post.

Couple of notes here.  

Everything Everywhere could easily add three more Oscars to its haul: Direction, Lead Actress and Editing.

Categories that seem most "locked" at the moment are Supporting Actor: Quan, Song: Naatu Naatu from RRR, International Feature: All Quiet...

Categories that seem to be the most contentious: Picture, Direction (Spielberg and The Daniels), Actress (Blanchett and Yeoh), Actor (Fraser and Butler with Farrell also possible), Original Screenplay (Everything Everywhere and Banshees), Documentary (literally any of them except House of Splinters),Cinematography (Again, any of the five except for Bardo), Editing (TG: Maverick and Everything Everywhere) and Makeup/Hair (Elvis and The Whale).

THE FILM STAGE'S 100 MOST ANTICIPATED AND TFF

Last month The Film Stage posted the 100 films that it have the most anticipation for in 2023.  I kind of spaced that out as I was focused on Oscar season.  Nevertheless, a month later, I have finally run through their list for possible players for TFF #50.

Last year, six films that I highlighted from The Film Stage list actually made it to TFF #49:

The Wonder

Bones and All

Broker

One Fine Morning

Women Talking 

TAR

Several films were on the 2022 list and reappear this year as they weren't released in 2022 including:

Maestro, The Holdovers, Poor Things, The Killer, Zone of Interest and Killers of the Flower Moon.

Here are maybe the best possibilities from their 2023 list:

100) El Conde

98) My Crime

93) The Royal Hotel

81) Emilia Perez

77) Butterfly Jam

72) Monster

60) Poor Things

59) AND

57) Nightbitch

48) Strangers

40) The Holdovers

38) The Island

36) Maestro

20) Fallen Leaves

19) Stone Mattress

18) Die My Love

16) The Killer

15) The End

13) The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

12) Priscilla

8) Zone of Interest

6) May/December

3) The Way of the Wind

2) Killers of the Flower Moon

1) How Do You Live?

The complete two part article is linked here.

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SPECIAL POST: OSCAR NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

OSCAR NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

TFF Films in Bold.

Best Picture

“All Quiet on the Western Front”

“Avatar: The Way of Water”

“The Banshees of Inisherin”

“Elvis”

“Everything Everywhere All at Once”

“The Fabelmans”

“TÁR”

“Top Gun: Maverick”

“Triangle of Sadness”

“Women Talking”

Best Director

Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)

Todd Field (“TÁR”)

Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett (“TÁR”)

Ana de Armas (“Blonde”)

Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”)

Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)

Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Best Actor

Austin Butler (“Elvis”)

Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)

Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”)

Bill Nighy (“Living”)

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”)

Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)

Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)

Hong Chau (“The Whale”)

Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Best International Feature Film

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Edward Berger, Germany)

“Argentina, 1985” (Santiago Mitre, Argentina)

“Close” (Lukas Dhont, Belgium)

“EO” (Poland)

“The Quiet Girl” (Ireland)

Best Cinematography

James Friend (“All Quiet on the Western Front”)

Darius Khondji (“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”)

Mandy Walker (“Elvis”)

Roger Deakins (“Empire of Light”)

Florian Hoffmeister (“Tár”)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Edward Berger, Ian Stokell, and Lesley Paterson (“All Quiet on the Western Front”)

Rian Johnson (“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”)

Kazuo Ishiguro (“Living”)

Ehren Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie, and Eric Warren Singer (“Top Gun: Maverick”)

Sarah Polley (“Women Talking”)

Best Original Screenplay

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Todd Field (“TÁR”)

Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)

Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)

Best Animated Feature

“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (ShadowMachine/Netflix)

“Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” (A24)

“Turning Red” (Pixar/Disney)

“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” (DreamWorks/Universal)

“The Sea Beast” (Netflix)

Best Visual Effects

“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century/Disney)

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)

“The Batman” (Warner Bros.)

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Disney/Marvel)

“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount)

Best Editing

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount)

“TÁR” (Focus Features)

“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)

Best Production Design

“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios/Disney)

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)

“Babylon” (Paramount)

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

“The Fabelmans” (Universal)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

“The Batman” (Warner Bros.)

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel/Disney)

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)

“The Whale” (A24)

Best Costume Design

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel/Disney)

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

“Babylon” (Paramount)

“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” (Focus Features)

Best Sound

“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount)

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century/Disney)

Contenders

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)

“The Batman” (Warner Bros.)

Best Documentary Feature

“All That Breathes”

“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”

“Fire of Love”

“A House Made of Splinters”

“Navalny”

Best Documentary Short Subject

“The Elephant Whisperers”

“Haulout”

“How Do You Measure a Year?”

“The Martha Mitchell Effect”

“Stranger at the Gate”

Best Live Action Short

“An Irish Goodbye”

“Ivalu”

“Le Pupille”

“Night Ride”

“The Red Suitcase”

Best Animated Short

“The Flying Sailor”

“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”

“Ice Merchants”

“My Year of Dicks”

“An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It”

Best Original Song

“Hold My Hand” — Lady Gaga (“Top Gun: Maverick”)

“Lift Me Up”— Rihanna (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)

“Naatu Naatu”— Kaala Bhairava, M.M. Keeravani, and Rahul Sipligunj (“RRR”)

“Applause”— Diane Warren (“Tell It Like a Woman”)

“This Is a Life”— David Byrne, Ryan Lott, and Mitski (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Best Original Score

Justin Hurwitz (“Babylon”)

John Williams (“The Fabelmans”)

Volker Bertelmann (“All Quiet on the Western Front”)

Carter Burwell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Son Lux (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

TFF films earn 17 nominations.  16 from TFF #49 and one from TFF #48.

TAR leads the Telluride crew with six: Best Picture, Actress, Direction, Original Screenplay, Editing and Cinematography.

Women Calling and Living each got two nominations.  Women Calling for Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay.  Living for Best Actor and Adapted Screenplay.

Single nominations for:

Aftersun: Best Actor

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed: Best Doc

Close: Best International Feature

Empire of Light: Cinematography

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On: Best Animated Film (TFF #48)

Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths: Cinematography

Le Pupille: Best Live Action Short

Everything everywhere All at Once had the most nominations with 11.  Followed by The Banshees of Inisherin and All Quiet on the Western Front with nine each.

I'm pleased that Nighy is Oscar nominated and that Women Talking made the field for Best Picture.

I go 93 out of 120 for a 77.5% rate.

My best categories were Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects where I was 5 of 5.  My categories were Cinematography and Doc Short where I went 2 of 5.

My  point of pride: Picking All Quiet on the Western Front to get nine nominations which it did.  Although I had Edward Berger getting a Best Director nomination which did not happen.  However All Quiet picked up a nom for Best Score that I did not predict.

More on Thursday!

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BAFTA Longlists and TFF / MTFB Oscar Update: Screenplays and More / The National Society of Film Critics and TFF / Visitations: Bill Nighy and More

BAFTA LONGLISTS AND TFF

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts announced their longlist of finalists for potential nominations for the films of 2022.  13 films from TFF were longlisted in at least one category with Charlotte Wells' Aftersun and Todd Field's TAR the leaders from TFF with eight mentions each.  All told TFF films landed 40 mentions.  Here's the rundown:

Aftersun (8): Best Film, Best British Film, Best Debut, Direction, Original Screenplay, Actor (Mescal), Casting and Editing.

TAR (8): Best Film, Direction, Original Screenplay, Actress (Blanchett), Casting, Cinematography, Score and Sound.

Living: (6): Best Film, Best British Film, Adapted Screenplay, Actor (Nighy), Supporting Actress (Wood) and Casting.

Women Talking (4): Direction, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actor (Whishaw) and Score.

Empire of Light (4): Best British Film, Supporting Actor (Ward), Score and Production Design.

The Wonder (3): Best British Film, Adapted Screenplay and Score.

Single mentions for the following:

Lady Chatterley's Lover: Best British Film.

Bardo: Best Film not in the English Language.

Close: Best Film not in the English Language.

Holy Spider: Best Film not in the English Language.

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed: Best Documentary.

Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song: Best Documentary.***

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On: Best Animated Film.***

(*** from TFF #48)

Edward Berger's All Quiet on the Western Front led all films with 15 mentions.

Takeaways: I think that Aftersun and Living stealth possibilities for a Best Picture Oscar nomination.

Women Talking continues to underperform and looks less and less likely of a Best Picture nomination or any acting nominations (Whishaw's inclusion on the shortlist notwithstanding.).

The complete BAFTA longlists are linked here.

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

Today I am updating predictions in the categories of Best Original and Adapted Screenplay.  These were last predicted on Dec. 26th.  In addition, I have included my first attempts to predict nominees in Makeup/Hair, Costumes and Visual Effects.  Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses.  Films from TFF #49 are in Bold.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Women Talking (1)

2) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (2)

3) Living (3)

4) She Said (4)

5) All Quiet on the Western Front (7)

6) The Whale (5)

7) Top Gun: Maverick (-)

Out: White Noise

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

2) Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

3) The Fabelmans (3)

4) TAR (4)

5) Triangle of Sadness (5)

6) Aftersun (6)

7) Babylon (7)

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Elvis (1)

2) The Whale (2)

3) The Batman (3)

4) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (4)

5) Babylon (5)

6) All Quiet on the Western Front (6)

7) Blonde (7)

COSTUME

1) Elvis (1)

2) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2)

3) Babylon (3)

4) Living (6)

5) The Woman King (5)

6) The Fabelmans (4)

7) Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (7)

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: The Way of Water (1)

2) Top Gun: Maverick (2)

3) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (3)

4) The Batman (4)

5) Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (5)

6) All Quiet on the Western Front (6)

7) Nope (7)

THE NATIONAL SOCIETY OF FILM CRITICS AND TFF

Five TFF films earned various degrees of notoriety from the National Society of Film Critics over the weekend.  Todd Field's TAR was the most decorated of all films as it was named Best Film as well as Cate Blanchett winning as Best Actress and Fields winning Best Screenplay.  Nina Hoss was first runner-up for Best Supporting Actress.

Charlotte Wells' Aftersun also did well as Wells was named Best Director.  The film was also the runner-up to TAR for Best Picture and Paul Mescal was first runner-up for Best Actor.

Laura Poitras' All the Beauty and the Bloodshed was named Best Documentary.

Bill Nighy was named second runner-up for Best Actor for Living and James Gray was second runner-up for Best Screenplay for Armageddon Time.

The complete NSFC winners are linked here.

VISITATIONS

LIVING: Bill Nighy from The Desert Sun.

EMPIRE OF LIGHT: Roger Deakins from A. Frame.

AFTERSUN: Charlotte Wells from MUBI.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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Bill Pence 1940-2022 / MTFB Oscar Update: Best Picture, Direction and More

BILL PENCE 1940-2022

Bill and Stella Pence at the 33rd telluride Film Festival

(Photo by Eugene Hernandez/Indiewire)

Sad news to report as Telluride Film Festival co-founder Bill Pence has died.  The news came over about a 24 hour period triggered by a chance viewing of Turner Classic Movies (TCM) year end TCM Remembers video that is posted to YouTube.  Mr. Pence's inclusion comes at the 2:03 mark:

What was puzzling was that I couldn't immediately find corroboration but over the course of the last day or so I have been able to confirm the news.  One piece of corroboration came last night via The Telluride Daily Planet's online edition which published a tribute from long time TFF staffer Jim Bedford.  You can find that linked here.

Another came with the discovery of an undated post from The Hopkins Center for the Arts at Dartmouth.  That post is undated and is linked here.

From Bedford's Telluride Daily Planet article:

"Bill Pence died on Dec. 6, 2022, after a long illness. He is survived by wife Stella, daughters Zazie and Lara, four grandchildren, and many others whose lives he influenced with his work, direction, and love. Bill's fire burned so very brightly and touched so many. Those who worked for him did it as much to not disappoint him as to carry on his vision. No one wanted to be the one who screwed up the Telluride Film Festival."

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: BEST PICTURE, DIRECTION AND MORE

In today's post I am updating Oscar predictions for Best Picture, Best Direction, Best Animated, Documentary and International features which were last posted on Dec. 15th.  TFF #49 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Everything Everywhere All at Once (3)

2) The Fabelmans (1)

3) The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

4) Top Gun: Maverick (5)

5) Avatar: The Way of Water (8)

6) TAR (6)

7) Elvis (7)

8) Women Talking (4)

9) Babylon (9)

10) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (10)

11) All Quiet on the Western Front (New)

12) Triangle of Sadness  (12)

Out: The Woman King

BEST DIRECTION

1) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans (1)

2) The Daniels/Everything Everywhere All at Once (5)

3) Martin McDonagh/The Banshees of Inisherin (3)

4) James Cameron/Avatar: The Way of Water (7)

5) Todd Field/TAR (4)

6) Sarah Polley/Women Talking (2)

7) Baz Luhrman/Elvis (New)

Out: Damien Chazelle/Babylon

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) GDT's Pinocchio (1)

2) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (2)

3) Turning Red (3)

4) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (4)

5) Wendall and Wild (5)

6) Inu-Oh (New)

7) Strange World

Out: Lightyear

BEST DOUMENATRY FEATURE

1) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (3)

2) Fire of Love (2)

3) All That Breathes (4)

4) Navalny (5)

5) Descendant (6)

6) The Territory (7)

7) Retrograde (New)

BEST  INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) All Quiet on the Western Front (2)

2) Close (1)

3) Decision to Leave (3)

4) Argentina 1985 (5)

5) Holy Spider (4)

6) Saint Omer (6)

7) Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (7)

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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MTFB Oscar Take: Picture, Direction and More / Critics Choice Nominations / Trailer and Poster for Women Talking / Visitations: Inarittu, Polley and More

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: UPDATING BEST PICTURE AND DIRECTION...ADDING DOCUMENTARY, ANIMATED FEATURE AND INTERNATIONAL FILM

In today's post I am updating Oscar predictions for Best Picture and Best Direction which were last posted on Dec. 1st.  In addition I am including first predictions for Best Animated, Documentary and International films.  TFF #49 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) The Fabelmans (1)

2) The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

3) Everything Everywhere All at Once (5)

4) Women Talking (3)

5) Top Gun: Maverick (4)

6) TAR (6)

7) Elvis (7)

8) Avatar: The Way of Water (9)

9) Babylon (8)

10) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (9)

11) The Woman King (New)

12) Triangle of Sadness  (10)

Out: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (11)

Stealth BP possibles: RRR, She Said, GDT's Pinocchio, Living

BEST DIRECTION

1) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans (1)

2) Sarah Polley/Women Talking (2)

3) Martin McDonagh/The Banshees of Inisherin (3)

4) Todd Field/TAR (4)

5) The Daniels/EEAAO (5)

6) Damien Chazelle/Babylon (6)

7) James Cameron/Avatar: The Way of Water (New)

Out: Rueben Ostlund/Triangle of Sadness

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) GDT's Pinocchio

2) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

3) Turning Red

4) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

5) Wendall and Wild

6) Strange World

7) Lightyear

BEST DOUMENATRY FEATURE

1) Good Night Oppy

2) Fire of Love

3) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

4) All That Breathes

5) Navalny

6) Descendant

7) The Territory

BEST  INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Close

2) All Quiet on the Western Front

3) Decision to Leave

4) Holy Spider

5) Argentina 1985

6) Saint Omer

7) Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths

CRITICS CHOICE NOMINATIONS

The Critics Choice Association named their nominees for film superlatives on Wednesday morning.  Nine different Telluride films earned at least one nomination with Todd Field's TAR leading the way with seven total nominations.  Here's the breakdown:

TAR (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Blanchett), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing and Score.

Women Talking (6): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress (Buckley), Ensemble, Adapted Screenplay and Score.

Aftersun (3): Best Actor (Mescal), Young Actor (Corio), Original Screenplay

Living (2): Best Actor (Nighy), Adapted Screenplay

Empire of Light (1): Cinematography

Armageddon Time (1): Best Young Actor (Repeta)

Bardo (1): Best Foreign Language Film

Close (1): Best Foreign Language Film

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (1): Best Animated Film

Everything Everywhere All at Once led all films with 14 nominations.

You can fins the complete list of nominees linked here.

TRAILER AND POSTER FOR WOMEN TALKING

New views of Sarah Polley's Women Talking with a new poster and a trailer.  Here's the trailer via YouTube:

 And the new poster:

VISITATIONS: INARITTU, POLLEY AND MORE

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu on Bardo from Gold Derby.

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu on Bardo from The Hollywood Reporter.

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu on Bardo from The Playlist.

Sarah Polley on Women Talking from The Hollywood Reporter.

Mary McCartney on If These Walls Could Sing from Solzy at the Movies.

Micheal Ward on Empire of Light from Indiewire.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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