SUNDAY SPECIAL: MTFB'S OSCAR FINAL

SUNDAY SOECIAL: MTFB'S OSCAR FINAL 

Here it is everyone, everywhere...my final Oscar winners predictions for 2022-23.  TFF films in Bold.

BEST PICTURE:

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Possible Spoilers: All Quiet, Top Gun, Banshees

BEST DIRECTION

Winner(s): Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert/Everything Everywhere All at Once

Spoiler: Speilberg

BEST ACTRESS

Winner: Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once

Spoiler: Cate Blanchett/TAR

BEST ACTOR

Winner: Austin Butler/Elvis

Spoilers: Brendan Fraser/The Whale or Colin Farrell/Banshees

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Winner: Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin

Spoilers: Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere. Angela Bassett/BP: Wakanda Forever

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Winner: Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once

Spoiler: No one.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Winner: Women Talking

Spoilers: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Spoliers: Banshees or TAR

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Spoilers: Argentina 1985 or Close

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Winner: Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

Spoiler: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Winner: Navalny

Spoilers: Fire of Love or All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Spoilers: Babylon, Fabelmans

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Winner: Naatu Naatu/RRR

Spoiler: Hold My Hand/Top Gun

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Spoiler: Elvis

BEST EDITING

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at  Once

Spoiler: Top Gun: Maverick

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Winner: Babylon

Spoiler: Elvis

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Winner: Elvis

Spoiler: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

Winner: Elvis

Spoilers: All Quiet on the Western Front or The Whale

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water

Spoiler: Top Gun: Maverick

BEST SOUND

Winner: Top Gun: Maverick

Spoiler: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Winner: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and The Horse

Spoilers: An Ostrich Told Me and My Year of Dicks

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Winner: An Irish Goodbye

Spoilers: Le Pupille or The Red Suitcase

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Winner: The Elephant Whispers

Spoiler: Stranger at the Gate or The Martha Mitchell Effect

THOUGHTS

The 14 categories that will determine who wins your Oscar pool:

Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Documentary, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Production Design, Makeup/Hair and the three Shorts categories.

Tightest races from what I can see: Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Score, Editing and Documentary Short.

As for Telluride we're likely to see the second straight year and the third of the last five years where the winner did not play at TFF.  Telluride had been on a long streak from Slumdog in 2009 to Nomadland in 2021.

The streak:

2009: Slumdog Millionaire

2010: The Hurt Locker (not at TFF)

2011: The King's Speech

2012: The Artist

2013: Argo

2014: 12 Years a Slave

2015: Birdman

2016: Spotlight

2017: Moonlight

2018:The Shape of Water

2019: Green Book (not at TFF)

2020 Parasite

2021: Nomadland

2022: CODA (not at TFF)

Optimally it looks like the best TFF films might achieve from the 17 TFF nominations is seven Oscars.  I am currently predicting one win and that's for Sarah Polley's Adapted Screenplay for Women Talking and that is certainly no lock.  TFF"s next best bet is Cate Blanchett for Best Actress in TAR.  

There's a very real possibility that for the first time since 2009 that no TFF film will take home an Oscar.

If my predictions are 100% accurate (and I average 70-75%) this is how Oscar #95 turns out:

Everything Everywhere wins six: Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Editing.

Elvis wins three: Actor, Makeup/Hair and Costumes.

All Quiet wins three: International Feature, Cinematography and Original Score.

Single wins for:

Banshees: Supporting Actress

Women Talking: Adapted Screenplay

GDT's Pinocchio: Animated Feature

Navlany: Doc Feature

RRR: Song

Babylon: Production Design

Avatar: The Way of Water: Visual Effects

Top Gun: Maverick: Sound

The Boy, the Mole, the fox and the Horse: Animated Short

An Irish Goodbye: Live Action Short

The Elephant Whisperers: Doc Short

Finally, this year's Oscar race has been wildly unpredictable so expect some surprises tonight.

I'll have a post-Oscars post up tomorrow for my regularly scheduled blogpost.  And we'll start it all over again for TFF #50 and Oscar #96. 

Enjoy the madness.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Visual and Sound and Shorts / U.S. Trailer for Tori and Lokita / Visitations: Nighy, Polley and More

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE

Here's a third pass at predicting Visual Effects, Sound and the Shorts categories   Previous rankings are to the right of each film in parentheses.  TFF films are in Bold.  Final predictions from MTFB are coming on Sunday morning in a special Oscar's morning post.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: The Way of Water (1)

2) Top Gun: Maverick (2)

3) All Quiet on the Western Front (3)

4) The Batman (4)

5) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (5)

BEST SOUND

1) Top Gun: Maverick (1)

2) All Quiet on the Western Front (3)

3) Elvis (2)

4) Avatar: The Way of Water (4)

5)The Batman (5)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse (1)

2) An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake... (2)

3) My Year of Dicks (4)

4) Ice Merchants (5)

5) The Flying Sailor (3)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) The Elephant Whisperers (4)

2) Stranger at the Gate (3)

3) The Martha Mitchell Effect (1)

4) How Do You Measure a Year? (2)

5) Haulout (5)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) An Irish Goodbye (2)

2) Le Pupille (1)

3) The Red Suitcase (3)

4) Ivalu (5)

5) The Night Ride (4)

Thoughts: Best Sound seemed almost a lock for Top Gun: Maverick two weeks ago but there is a surge of sentiment for All Quiet and Elvis isn't out of the question  

As always, the Shorts categories are virtually impenetrable.  The closest thing to a lock there appears to be for Animated Short with The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and The Horse.  Live Action and Doc Shorts are a mess.  Live Action is probably down to the top two: An Irish Goodbye and Le Pupille while Doc Shorts are all over the place.  Literally any of the five nominees are still possible winners.

U.S  TRAILER FOR TORI AND LOKITA

The Dardenne Brothers returned to Telluride in 2022 with Tori and Lokita.  It was the brothers' first time back to TFF since 2014's Two Days One Night.  Now, ahead of its March 24th limited release we have a new trailer for the U.S.  Here that is from YouTube:

VISITATIONS

Women Talking: Dede Gardner with The Hollywood Reporter and Sarah Polley with Indiewire.

Living: Bill Nighy with Vanity Fair.

TAR: Todd Field with Deadline.

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On: Dean Fleischer Camp with Variety.

Close: Lukas Dhont with Deadline.

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MTFB Oscar Update / BAFTA Winners / Directors Guild Winners / Visitations: Polley and Poitras

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE

I'm continuing my first attempts at predicting what will win Oscars on the night of March 12th.  Today's  updated categories: International, Animated and Documentary Features as well as Production Design, Costume and Makeup/Hair.  Films are ranked in order of likelihood to win with their previous ranking in parentheses. I have highlighted TFF nominees in Bold.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) All Quiet on the Western Front (1)

2) Argentina 1985 (2)

3) Close (3)

4) EO (4)

5) The Quiet Girl (5)

ANIMANTED FEATURE

1) GDT's Pinocchio (1)

2) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (2)

3) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (3)

4) Turning Red (4)

5) The Sea Beast (5)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Fire of Love (4)

2) Navalny (3)

3) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (1)

4) All That Breathes (2)

5) The House of Splinters (5)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Elvis (1)

2) Babylon (2)

3) All Quiet on the Western Front (4)

4) Avatar: The Way of Water (3)

5) The Fabelmans (5)

COSTUME DESIGN

1) Elvis (1)

2) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2)

3) Babylon (3)

4) Everything Everywhere All at Once (4)

5) Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (5)

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Elvis (1)

2) The Whale (2)

3) All Quiet on the Western Front (4)

4) The Batman (3)

5) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (5)

BAFTA WINNERS

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) named its "Best of" for 2022 last night and Edward Berger's All Quiet on the Western Front was the big winner picking up seven trophies including Best Film and Direction.

TFF Films that picked up hardware were:

Cate Blanchett winning Best Actress for TAR

Charlotte Wells for Best Debut for a British Writer, Director or Producer for Aftersun

TFF adjacent documentary (it was screened in Elk Park on the Wednesday night prior to TFF beginning) Navalny was named Best Documentary.

The complete BAFTA winners list is here.

DIRECTOR GUILD WINNERS

The DGA named Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert Best Director for a Feature Film for Everything Everywhere All at Once besting, among others Todd Field/TAR who was the only DGA nominee for a Feature Film from TFF.

From TFF, Charlotte Wells win Best First Feature for Aftersun.

The Directors Guild list of winners is linked here.

VISITATIONS

WOMEN TALKING: Sarah Polley at Deadline.com.

ALL THE BEAUTY AND THE BLOODSHED: Laura Poitras at NBR.

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SPECIAL POST: OSCAR NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

OSCAR NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

TFF Films in Bold.

Best Picture

“All Quiet on the Western Front”

“Avatar: The Way of Water”

“The Banshees of Inisherin”

“Elvis”

“Everything Everywhere All at Once”

“The Fabelmans”

“TÁR”

“Top Gun: Maverick”

“Triangle of Sadness”

“Women Talking”

Best Director

Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)

Todd Field (“TÁR”)

Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett (“TÁR”)

Ana de Armas (“Blonde”)

Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”)

Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)

Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Best Actor

Austin Butler (“Elvis”)

Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)

Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”)

Bill Nighy (“Living”)

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”)

Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)

Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)

Hong Chau (“The Whale”)

Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Best International Feature Film

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Edward Berger, Germany)

“Argentina, 1985” (Santiago Mitre, Argentina)

“Close” (Lukas Dhont, Belgium)

“EO” (Poland)

“The Quiet Girl” (Ireland)

Best Cinematography

James Friend (“All Quiet on the Western Front”)

Darius Khondji (“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”)

Mandy Walker (“Elvis”)

Roger Deakins (“Empire of Light”)

Florian Hoffmeister (“Tár”)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Edward Berger, Ian Stokell, and Lesley Paterson (“All Quiet on the Western Front”)

Rian Johnson (“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”)

Kazuo Ishiguro (“Living”)

Ehren Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie, and Eric Warren Singer (“Top Gun: Maverick”)

Sarah Polley (“Women Talking”)

Best Original Screenplay

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Todd Field (“TÁR”)

Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)

Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)

Best Animated Feature

“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (ShadowMachine/Netflix)

“Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” (A24)

“Turning Red” (Pixar/Disney)

“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” (DreamWorks/Universal)

“The Sea Beast” (Netflix)

Best Visual Effects

“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century/Disney)

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)

“The Batman” (Warner Bros.)

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Disney/Marvel)

“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount)

Best Editing

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount)

“TÁR” (Focus Features)

“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)

Best Production Design

“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios/Disney)

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)

“Babylon” (Paramount)

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

“The Fabelmans” (Universal)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

“The Batman” (Warner Bros.)

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel/Disney)

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)

“The Whale” (A24)

Best Costume Design

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel/Disney)

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

“Babylon” (Paramount)

“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” (Focus Features)

Best Sound

“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount)

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century/Disney)

Contenders

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)

“The Batman” (Warner Bros.)

Best Documentary Feature

“All That Breathes”

“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”

“Fire of Love”

“A House Made of Splinters”

“Navalny”

Best Documentary Short Subject

“The Elephant Whisperers”

“Haulout”

“How Do You Measure a Year?”

“The Martha Mitchell Effect”

“Stranger at the Gate”

Best Live Action Short

“An Irish Goodbye”

“Ivalu”

“Le Pupille”

“Night Ride”

“The Red Suitcase”

Best Animated Short

“The Flying Sailor”

“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”

“Ice Merchants”

“My Year of Dicks”

“An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It”

Best Original Song

“Hold My Hand” — Lady Gaga (“Top Gun: Maverick”)

“Lift Me Up”— Rihanna (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)

“Naatu Naatu”— Kaala Bhairava, M.M. Keeravani, and Rahul Sipligunj (“RRR”)

“Applause”— Diane Warren (“Tell It Like a Woman”)

“This Is a Life”— David Byrne, Ryan Lott, and Mitski (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Best Original Score

Justin Hurwitz (“Babylon”)

John Williams (“The Fabelmans”)

Volker Bertelmann (“All Quiet on the Western Front”)

Carter Burwell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Son Lux (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

TFF films earn 17 nominations.  16 from TFF #49 and one from TFF #48.

TAR leads the Telluride crew with six: Best Picture, Actress, Direction, Original Screenplay, Editing and Cinematography.

Women Calling and Living each got two nominations.  Women Calling for Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay.  Living for Best Actor and Adapted Screenplay.

Single nominations for:

Aftersun: Best Actor

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed: Best Doc

Close: Best International Feature

Empire of Light: Cinematography

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On: Best Animated Film (TFF #48)

Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths: Cinematography

Le Pupille: Best Live Action Short

Everything everywhere All at Once had the most nominations with 11.  Followed by The Banshees of Inisherin and All Quiet on the Western Front with nine each.

I'm pleased that Nighy is Oscar nominated and that Women Talking made the field for Best Picture.

I go 93 out of 120 for a 77.5% rate.

My best categories were Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects where I was 5 of 5.  My categories were Cinematography and Doc Short where I went 2 of 5.

My  point of pride: Picking All Quiet on the Western Front to get nine nominations which it did.  Although I had Edward Berger getting a Best Director nomination which did not happen.  However All Quiet picked up a nom for Best Score that I did not predict.

More on Thursday!

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MTFB Oscar Update: Supporting Acting and More / BAFTA Nominations and TFF / Visitations: Nighy and More

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SUPPORTING ACTING AND MORE

                                              

I am updating predictions in the categories of Best  Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Original Score, Original Song and Sound.   These were last predicted on Jan. 5th.  Past ranking is to the right in parentheses.  Films from TFF #49 are in Bold.

FINAL MTFB OSCAR NOMINATIONS PREDICTIONS WILL BE IN MONDAY'S POST FOR ALL 23 CATEGORIES!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin (1)

2) Angela Bassett/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2)

3) Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere All at Once (3)

4) Stephanie Hsu/Everything Everywhere All at Once (7)

5) Hong Chau/The Whale (-)

6) Janelle Monae/Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (5)

7) Dolly DeLeon/Triangle of Sadness (6)

Out: Jesse Buckley/Women Talking

Should be in the mix: Buckley, Foy, McCarthy and Ivey from Women Talking

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

2) Brendan Gleeson/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

3) Barry Keoghan/The Banshees of Inisherin (3)

4) Paul Dano/The Fabelmans (5)

5) Judd Hirsch/The Fabelmans (4)

6) Brad Pitt/Babylon (6)

7) Bryan Tyree Henry/Causeway (7)

Should be in the mix: Whishaw /Women Talking, Strong/Armageddon Time

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Fabelmans (1)

2) Babylon (4)

3) Women Talking (2)

4) Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio (3)

5) The Banshees of Inisherin (5)

6) The Woman King (6)

7) Avatar: The Way of Water (7)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Naatu Naatu/RRR (2)

2) Lift Me Up/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (1)

3) Hold My Hand/Top Gun: Maverick (3)

4) Ciao Papa/Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio (4)

5) New Body Rhumba/White Noise (7)

6) Applause/Tell It Like a Woman (5)

7) Carolina/Where the Crawdads Sing (6)

BEST SOUND

1) Top Gun: Maverick (1)

2) Avatar: The Way of Water (2)

3) Elvis (3) 

4) All Quiet on the Western Front (7)

5) The Batman (6)

6) Everything Everywhere All at Once (7)

7) Babylon (5)

BAFTA NOMINATIONS AND TFF

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) announced their nominees for film excellence this morning.  Seven TFF films earned a total of 19 nominations with Todd Field's TAR leading the wat for films from The SHOW with five nominations.  Here's the listing:

TAR (5): Best Film, Direction/Field, Actress/Blanchett, Original Screenplay and Sound.

Living (4): Best British Film, Actor/Nighy, Adapted Screenplay and Rising Star/Wood.

Aftersun (4): Best British Film, Debut/Wells, Actor/Mescal and Casting.

Empire of Light (3): Best British Film, Best Supporting Actor/Ward and Cinematography.

The Wonder (1): Best British Film

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (1): Best Documentary

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (1): Best Animated Film

Edward Bergers' All Quiet on the Western Front earned the most nominations of any film with 14.

Here's the complete rundown of BAFTA nominees.

VISITATIONS

LIVING: Bill Nighy in Variety.

MARCEL THE SHELL WITH SHOES ON: Dean Fleischer Camp and Kirsten Lepore in Vanity Fair.

HOLY SPIDER: Ali Abbasi and Ana Lily Amirpour in Variety.

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Ten Bets #2 / 700,000+ / Hope Springs / NEON's Shine / Two Off the Table ?/ My Marcel Dance Continues

TEN BETS #2

Here's the second edition of MTFB's Ten Bets for TFF #49.  It's my weekly assessment that will update each week through the summer with my best assessment of the films that I think could make the TFF #49 lineup.  Last week the initial Ten Bets were:

1) Bardo/Inarritu

2) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

3) The Son/Zeller

4) Close/Dhont

5) Women Talking/Polley

6) Aftersun/Wells

7) Showing Up/Reichardt

8) White Noise/Baumbach

9) Broker/Kore-eda

10) She Said/M. Schrader

Plus some other possibilities: Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, Holy Spider/Abdasi, Blonde/Dominik, The Master Gardener/P. Schrader, Next Goal Wins/Waititi, The Forger/Peren, Babylon/Chazelle, TAR/Fields

Not much jostling this week...  Here's the new Ten Bets:

1) Bardo/Inarritu

2) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

3) The Son/Zeller

4) Close/Dhont

5) Women Talking/Polley

6) Aftersun/Wells

7) Showing Up/Reichardt

8) Broker/Kore-eda

9) White Noise/Baumbach

10) The Master Gardener/P. Schrader

Others: Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, Holy Spider/Abdasi, Blonde/Dominik, The Master Gardener/P. Schrader, Next Goal Wins/Waititi, The Forger/Peren, Babylon/Chazelle, TAR/Fields, She Said/M. Schrader

700,000+

Since I posted on Monday MTFB crossed it 700,000th view since I first started the thing back in 2008.  Over that time I have posted 2023 times for a per post average of 346+ views per post.  Biggest post historically for the blog was Jan. 4, 2018 that focused on the upcoming Oscar nominations for that year.  It also included a focus on Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird.  The largest readership for a non-Oscar related post was for last fall's Professional's Telluride poll that has Marcel the Shell with Shoes On as the highest rated film for TFF #48.  That post created quite a stir and was refenced by Variety, Awards Daily, Awards Watch and Indiewire as well as from the film's director, writer and Marcel co-creator Dean Fleischer-Camp.

Marcel opened in limited release this past week and had a ridiculously good per theater average.  The film is currently at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Marcel will continue to expand into other markets in the coming weeks.

HOPE SPRINGS

Now make no mistake, I don't think (at least at the moment) that we'll see either Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon or Fincher's The Killer at TFF #49 BUT...Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel reported this week that both of the films might get a 2022 release.  Both films had been rumored to be floating into 2023 for release but Ruimy's  reportage suggests that there is some hope for both before the end of the year. 

Jordan writes about Flower Moon saying:

"After embarking on additional shooting, and rumors appearing that it might get delayed to 2023, Apple is now pretty confident that Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon” will be released later this year, most likely in December."

That story was published last Sunday.

Then, later on Sunday Jordan posted this:

“The Killer” started production in November 2021 and wrapped shorting this past March. Fincher has 9 months to edit, but we all know he takes an obsessively lengthy time in the editing room. My bet is that the film get released in December. That’s just a hunch."

Fingers crossed that both highly anticipated films as a part of a 2022 release strategy and...if they just so happened to screen at Telluride, so much the better.

NEON SHINES

I'm continuing my preview of possible TFF #49 selections from distribution companies that have been prominently involved at the fest over recent years.  Today's subject is NEON,  Their profile at T-ride isn't as lengthy as an SPC or Searchlight but it has shown brightly over the past five years including the Best Picture Oscar winner for 2019, Bong Joon Ho's Parasite.  Here are the NEON films that

2021: Petite Maman, Spencer (Oscar nominated for Best Actress-Kristen Stewart) , Flee (Oscar nominated for Best Animated Film, Best International Film and Best Documentary)

2020: Ammonite

2019: Parasite (nominated for six Academy Awards and won four including Best Picture and Director). Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Amazing Grace

2018: Border (Oscar nominated for Best Makeup and Hair), The Biggest Little Farm

2017: The B-Side: Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Photography

Best chances for this year are three films that all played at Cannes earlier this year:

Hirokazu Kore-eda's Broker (won Best Actor and Ecumenical Jury prize at Cannes)

Rueben Ostlund's Palme d'Or winner Triangle of Sadness 

Brett Morgen's David Bowie doc Moonage Daydream

These films are listed from top to bottom in the probability of a TFF appearance.  I put Broker at 55% and Triangle of Sadness and Moonage Daydream at 25% each in probability of being selected for TFF #49.

TWO OFF THE TABLE

(via Netflix)

Not that I have ever really thought they were likely ever on the Telluride table...

Toronto's International Film Fest has moved one film off the chess board with their announcement on Wednesday that Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery will World Premiere there.  

The Hollywood Reporter, among others, reported the TIFF announcement.  The story is linked here.

Meanwhile, if you had the musical version of Roald Dahl's Matilda on your list as a Telluride consideration, erase it now.  The BFI London Film Fest has announced the film as its World Premiere Opening Night Gala.  

Here is that news from The British Film Institute.

  

Both films are from Netflix.

MY MARCEL DANCE CONTINUES

Friend of MTFB, Mark Johnson of Awards Daily, attended the just completed Nantucket Film Festival.  His last screening was the TFF #49 favorite Marcel the Shell with Shoes On.  Mark had missed seeing last September.

He was kind enough to reference MTFB's The Professionals Telluride Poll as a part of his very positive review for the film.

You can see Mark's review and even hit the link and re-visit MTFB's Pros Poll.  The link for the review is here.

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Fred Ward 1942-2022 / Marcel Creators Have a Word / Official Clip for Holy Spider / NEON Nabs Broker / Marty Back in Oklahoma

FRED WARD 1942-2022

Fred Ward at TFF #36 (photo via Salon.com and Getty Images)

I will miss Fred Ward.  The actor died on May 8th at the age of 79.  Fred's credits included some great stuff: Escape from Alcatraz, Southern Comfort, The Right Stuff, The Player and, of course, Tremors.  Tremors is one of my wife's favorite movies. For years we've been talking about writing and producing a stage musical adaptation.  Can you envision singing Graboids?

I just watched The Player again a couple of weeks ago.

Ward was in Telluride in 2009 for The SHOW as a part of the group that was there with the foreign film Farewell, a gripping cold war true story that featured Ward as Ronald Reagan.  I saw the film at the fest and it was quote good.

Salon.com had a nice write up about Fred this week.  That's linked here.

MARCELS'S CREATORS HAVE A WORD

Recently, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On co-creators Dean Fleischer Camp and Jenny Slate sat down with Joshua Rothkopf writing for Entertainment Weekly for an interview ahead of the films release on June 24th.  The result of that interview was posted at EW.com on Friday the 13th.

Frequent readers of this space already know that I am an outspoken fan of the film so I am pleased to provide the link to the interview, encourage you to read (regarding the genesis of the project and other matters) and then make sure to go see the film or re-watch it of you caught it at Telluride or one of its other film fest stops (SXSW, San Francisco, Seattle, Milwaukee).

OFFICIAL CLIP FOR HOLY SPIDER

On the TFF #49 watch list is Ali Abbasi's Cannes Plame d'Or contender Holy Spider.  The film focuses on a series of murders in Iran and the female journalist that is trying to unravel the story.

Here's the newly released first look clip from YouTube:

NEON NABS BROKER

NEON has acquired North American distribution rights for Hirokazu Kore-eda's Broker according to multiple sources including Variety.  This is of note to Telluride Film Fest fans as the film now checks off a bunch of boxes that could signal a TFF #49 appearance.

Cannes competition choice...check

Foreign auteur that's played TFF before... check (Kore-eda's Shoplifters in 2018)

Distributor with a history at T-ride...check (NEON)

Assuming reviews are strong out of Cannes, Broker's lineage could land it on my first "Ten Bets" list.

Here's the news of the acquisition from Variety.

MARTY BACK IN OKLAHOMA

Jordan Ruimy of World of Reel reports that additional filming is underway in the northeast part of my home state for Killers of the Flower Moon.  Jordan, as a part of his story, links to a report from Louise Red Corn writing for The Osage News from last Tuesday with photos showing crew and equipment back in Pawhuska.

Speculation is that they'll be filming a social dance that will include an number of the locals that were filmed earlier as extras and background players.

Here's the link to Jordan's story.

Here's the link to the Osage News story.

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Two 2023 Oscar Lists: Indiewire and World of Reel / Coming Soon to a Theater Near You

TWO OSCAR 2023 LISTS

Both Indiewire and World of Reel posted lengthy Oscar Best Picture lists for 2023 this past week.  Indiwire's list had 35 titles while World of Reel had a list of 23.  Between the two list there were 11 films that made both lists (in no particular order):

Baz Lurman's Elvis

Martin Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon 

Steven Spielberg's The Fablemans

Maria Schrader's She Said

Damien Chazelle's Babylon

Kasi Lemmons' I Wanna Dance with Somebody

Kelly Reicharadt's Showing Up

Martin McDaonagh's The Banshees of Inisherin

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's Bardo

Florian Zeller's The Son

Todd Field's TAR

Your five best Telluride bets from this combined list: Bardo, Showing Up, The Son, Babylon and TAR.

You can take a look at the complete lists and  analysis for each outlet.  

The Indiewire post is here.

The World of Reel post is here.

COMNG SOON TO A THEATER NEAR YOU

The Film Stage posted a list of 40+ films with release dates this summer which is revelatory in two ways in as far as Telluride film fans are concerned.  First, the list lets us know what films are OFF the list for TFF consideration i.e. David Cronenberg's Crimes of the Future.  The list also tells us when films that have screened (or would have screened at Telluride in one case) will be released.

According to the article these TFF films are pout as follows:

TFF #47 announced film Apples on June 24th.

From TFF #48:

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On on June 24th

Bitterbrush on June 24th 

Three Minutes: A Lengthening on August 19th

The complete Film Stage post is linked here.

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More Marcel News

MORE MARCEL NEWS

Distributor A24 has released a trailer for TFF #48 hit Marcel the Shell with Shoes On.  The film has also been dated for a June 24th release.  

Additionally Marcel will screen as a part of the San Francisco International Film Festival on April 22nd after having been screened recently at South by Southwest and the Seattle Film Festival.  The screening will also include a Tribute Conversation with Marcel's voice and co-creator Jenny Slate.  Information about he screening and conversation is linked here from SFFilm.

Marcel the Shell topped MTFB's annual survey of film writing professionals besting both The Power of the Dog and Belfast.

Here is the new trailer via YouTube:

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