Ten Bets #3-The Jostling Begins / Bouncing Around / Much More Marcel / She Is Done

 TEN BETS #3-THE JOSTLING BEGINS

After last week's largely unchanged Bets, this week is a different story.  Largely hinging on excellent reporting by Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel-that reporting is detailed below in the following summation of hos collection of posts dating back to Independence Day.

That said, here's a repeat of last week's Ten Bets and other possibilities

1) Bardo/Inarritu

2) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

3) The Son/Zeller

4) Close/Dhont

5) Women Talking/Polley

6) Aftersun/Wells

7) Showing Up/Reichardt

8) Broker/Kore-eda

9) White Noise/Baumbach

10) The Master Gardener/P. Schrader

Others: Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, Holy Spider/Abbasi, Blonde/Dominik, Next Goal Wins/Waititi, The Forger/Peren, Babylon/Chazelle, TAR/Fields, She Said/M. Schrader.

And here are the latest Ten Bets:

1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

2) The Son/Zeller

3) Close/Dhont

4) Women Talking/Polley

5) Aftersun/Wells

6) Bardo/Inarritu

7) TAR/Fields

8) Showing Up/Reichardt

9) Broker/Kore-eda

10) Armageddon Time/Gray

Others: The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper, The Master Gardener/P. Schrader, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, Holy Spider/Abbasi,  The Forger/Peren, Babylon/Chazelle, She Said/M. Schrader.

BOUNCING AROUND

As mentioned above, there is some jumbling of the Ten Bets for this week owing to reporting from Jordan Ruimy.  If you compare last week's Ten Bets with this week's you'll see that some films have disappeared, some jumped on and Bardo is still on the list, but moved from the top spot down to #6.

All of that comes as a result of Jordan's reporting at World of Reel.

Specifically two posts from the last week.  Ruimy posted a piece on July 4th indicating that sources had told him that Bardo would NOT being playing fall fests and that Blonde and White Noise would NOT be at Telluride.  Including for T-ride, according to his reporting, will be: Armageddon Time (Gray), Women Talking (Polley), The Pale Blue Eye (Cooper) and TAR (Fields).

I was devastated as my personal hope for list included Bardo and Blonde (in addition to Babylon-which is hanging onto the "maybe: list by the slimmest of threads.

Then on Wednesday, Ruimy was back with a different spin on Bardo.  Ruimy indicated that a new source was telling him that Bardo would be ready for screening at fall fests.  Ruimy writes:

"I had it confirmed this late afternoon that Inarittu and Netflix are hopeful “Bardo” will be done on time for the fall fests." 

Sooo...Bardo stays on the Ten Bets but takes a 5 position demotion.  Shaky!  My belief had been that Bardo would play Venice and then make the trans-Atlantic jump to southwestern Colorado.  We'll see...

As you can see, I have linked both of Ruimy's posts.

MUCH MORE MARCEL

As Marcel the Shell with Shoes On continues its rollout nationwide, there continue to be stories that pop up highlighting the film about the plucky mollusk.  I have some of those here from this week"

From Variety

ScriptMag.com

MovieWeb

SHE SAID IS DONE -IT TESTED

Again reporting from Jordan Ruimy tells us that Maria Schrader's She Said (the film about the Harvey Weinstein affair) has screen tested and seems to have done well.

I think there some possibility that it screens in the San Juans on Labor Day weekend.

The WOR story is here.

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Ten Bets #2 / 700,000+ / Hope Springs / NEON's Shine / Two Off the Table ?/ My Marcel Dance Continues

TEN BETS #2

Here's the second edition of MTFB's Ten Bets for TFF #49.  It's my weekly assessment that will update each week through the summer with my best assessment of the films that I think could make the TFF #49 lineup.  Last week the initial Ten Bets were:

1) Bardo/Inarritu

2) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

3) The Son/Zeller

4) Close/Dhont

5) Women Talking/Polley

6) Aftersun/Wells

7) Showing Up/Reichardt

8) White Noise/Baumbach

9) Broker/Kore-eda

10) She Said/M. Schrader

Plus some other possibilities: Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, Holy Spider/Abdasi, Blonde/Dominik, The Master Gardener/P. Schrader, Next Goal Wins/Waititi, The Forger/Peren, Babylon/Chazelle, TAR/Fields

Not much jostling this week...  Here's the new Ten Bets:

1) Bardo/Inarritu

2) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

3) The Son/Zeller

4) Close/Dhont

5) Women Talking/Polley

6) Aftersun/Wells

7) Showing Up/Reichardt

8) Broker/Kore-eda

9) White Noise/Baumbach

10) The Master Gardener/P. Schrader

Others: Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, Holy Spider/Abdasi, Blonde/Dominik, The Master Gardener/P. Schrader, Next Goal Wins/Waititi, The Forger/Peren, Babylon/Chazelle, TAR/Fields, She Said/M. Schrader

700,000+

Since I posted on Monday MTFB crossed it 700,000th view since I first started the thing back in 2008.  Over that time I have posted 2023 times for a per post average of 346+ views per post.  Biggest post historically for the blog was Jan. 4, 2018 that focused on the upcoming Oscar nominations for that year.  It also included a focus on Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird.  The largest readership for a non-Oscar related post was for last fall's Professional's Telluride poll that has Marcel the Shell with Shoes On as the highest rated film for TFF #48.  That post created quite a stir and was refenced by Variety, Awards Daily, Awards Watch and Indiewire as well as from the film's director, writer and Marcel co-creator Dean Fleischer-Camp.

Marcel opened in limited release this past week and had a ridiculously good per theater average.  The film is currently at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Marcel will continue to expand into other markets in the coming weeks.

HOPE SPRINGS

Now make no mistake, I don't think (at least at the moment) that we'll see either Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon or Fincher's The Killer at TFF #49 BUT...Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel reported this week that both of the films might get a 2022 release.  Both films had been rumored to be floating into 2023 for release but Ruimy's  reportage suggests that there is some hope for both before the end of the year. 

Jordan writes about Flower Moon saying:

"After embarking on additional shooting, and rumors appearing that it might get delayed to 2023, Apple is now pretty confident that Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon” will be released later this year, most likely in December."

That story was published last Sunday.

Then, later on Sunday Jordan posted this:

“The Killer” started production in November 2021 and wrapped shorting this past March. Fincher has 9 months to edit, but we all know he takes an obsessively lengthy time in the editing room. My bet is that the film get released in December. That’s just a hunch."

Fingers crossed that both highly anticipated films as a part of a 2022 release strategy and...if they just so happened to screen at Telluride, so much the better.

NEON SHINES

I'm continuing my preview of possible TFF #49 selections from distribution companies that have been prominently involved at the fest over recent years.  Today's subject is NEON,  Their profile at T-ride isn't as lengthy as an SPC or Searchlight but it has shown brightly over the past five years including the Best Picture Oscar winner for 2019, Bong Joon Ho's Parasite.  Here are the NEON films that

2021: Petite Maman, Spencer (Oscar nominated for Best Actress-Kristen Stewart) , Flee (Oscar nominated for Best Animated Film, Best International Film and Best Documentary)

2020: Ammonite

2019: Parasite (nominated for six Academy Awards and won four including Best Picture and Director). Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Amazing Grace

2018: Border (Oscar nominated for Best Makeup and Hair), The Biggest Little Farm

2017: The B-Side: Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Photography

Best chances for this year are three films that all played at Cannes earlier this year:

Hirokazu Kore-eda's Broker (won Best Actor and Ecumenical Jury prize at Cannes)

Rueben Ostlund's Palme d'Or winner Triangle of Sadness 

Brett Morgen's David Bowie doc Moonage Daydream

These films are listed from top to bottom in the probability of a TFF appearance.  I put Broker at 55% and Triangle of Sadness and Moonage Daydream at 25% each in probability of being selected for TFF #49.

TWO OFF THE TABLE

(via Netflix)

Not that I have ever really thought they were likely ever on the Telluride table...

Toronto's International Film Fest has moved one film off the chess board with their announcement on Wednesday that Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery will World Premiere there.  

The Hollywood Reporter, among others, reported the TIFF announcement.  The story is linked here.

Meanwhile, if you had the musical version of Roald Dahl's Matilda on your list as a Telluride consideration, erase it now.  The BFI London Film Fest has announced the film as its World Premiere Opening Night Gala.  

Here is that news from The British Film Institute.

  

Both films are from Netflix.

MY MARCEL DANCE CONTINUES

Friend of MTFB, Mark Johnson of Awards Daily, attended the just completed Nantucket Film Festival.  His last screening was the TFF #49 favorite Marcel the Shell with Shoes On.  Mark had missed seeing last September.

He was kind enough to reference MTFB's The Professionals Telluride Poll as a part of his very positive review for the film.

You can see Mark's review and even hit the link and re-visit MTFB's Pros Poll.  The link for the review is here.

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A24 Is Loaded / Ruimy Looks at Telluride / ICYMI: The First Ten Bets for TFF #49

 A24 IS LOADED

As I continue to review various distributors that have had a significant presence at past Telluride Film Festivals I marvel at how many possible films A24 has in play.  A24 appeared on the Telluride scene in 2012 with Ginger + Rosa.  Since then A24 has been a consistent player at TFF:

2012-Ginger + Rosa

2013-Under the Skin

2015-Room

2016-Moonlight

2017-First Reformed, Lady Bird, Lean on Pete

2019-Uncut Gems,Waves, First Cow

2021-C'mon C'mon, Red Rocket

So, as you can see, not every year but most years and the last three times A24 has landed multiple films at T-ride.  Likely they're going to get multiple films in this year too as the A24 larder is brimming with intriguing possible choices.  In alphabetical order with director listed (***indicates a film on my first "Ten Bets" for the fest posted last Monday):

Aftersun/Wells***

Close/Dhont***

Jerry Lee Lewis: Trouble in Mind/Coen

Red, White and Water/Neigebauer

Showing Up/Reichardt***

Stars at Noon/Denis

Tuesday/Onunis-Pusic

The Whale/Aronofsky

White Noise/Baumbach***

That's nine possibles and doesn't count fairly high profile titles from Joanna Hogg (The Eternal Daughter), Ari Aster (Disappointment Blvd.) or Alex Garland (Civil War).

You can also see that I have four of the nine listed in the first Ten Bets. I'm betting big on A24 for TFF this year. 

RUIMY LOOKS AT TELLURIDE

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel has stepped into "figure out Telluride" mode with a post from yesterday.  His first review of what could come very kindly sources MTFB for some of the post.  However, Jordan does mention additional titles that I don't necessarily have in my Top Ten at the moment or in the additional "maybe titles" (see below). 

Ruimy includes the potential for the following to be at TFF #49:

Todd Fields' TAR

Scott Cooper's The Pale Blue Eye

Sebastian Lelio's The Wonder

Luca Guadagnino's Bones and All

Darren Aronofsky's The Whale

Martin McDonagh's The Banshees of Inisherin

Make no mistake here.  I have almost all of these titles in my "be aware of it" list for a possible play at TFF #49 with the exception of McDonagh's Banshees of Inisherin.  If you're an MTFB reader, do yourself a favor and check out World of Reel from time to time.  Jordan is great at sussing this stuff out.

Here's his post that I'm referencing.

ICYMI: THE FIRST TEN BETS FOR TFF #49

I'm re-posting the first Ten Bets for Telluride as this would, in a normal year, be the date that I would have posted the first stab at trying to guess Telluride.  Here it is again:

1) Bardo/Inarritu

2) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

3) The Son/Zeller

4) Close/Dhont

5) Women Talking/Polley

6) Aftersun/Wells

7) Showing Up/Reichardt

8) White Noise/Baumbach

9) Broker/Kore-eda

10) She Said/M. Schrader

Others: Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, Holy Spider/Abdasi, Blonde/Dominik, The Master Gardener/P. Schrader, Next Goal Wins/Waititi, The Forger/Peren, Babylon/Chazelle, TAR/Fields

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My First Ten Bets for 2022 / A Look at Blonde / World of Reel's List of Films for Fests / To Babylon or not to Babylon / GDT's Pinocchio?

MY FIRST TEN BETS FOR 2022

Normally my first list of predicting 10 possible Telluride films comes a little later in June but the news that Toronto will announce some titles this week has made it imperative that I launch the first TFF #49 Ten Bets a bit earlier.  So, to that end, here are Ten Bets for TFF #49 (in order of my feeling that they make the list):

1) Bardo/Inarritu

2) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

3) The Son/Zeller

4) Close/Dhont

5) Women Talking/Polley

6) Aftersun/Wells

7) Showing Up/Reichardt

8) White Noise/Baumbach

9) Broker/Kore-eda

10) She Said/M. Schrader

Others: Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, Holy Spider/Abdasi, Blonde/Dominik, The Master Gardener/P. Schrader, Next Goal Wins/Waititi, The Forger/Peren, Babylon/Chazelle, TAR/Fields

A LOOK AT BLONDE

I have been reticent to include Andrew Dominik’s Blonde as a serious contender for screening at this year’s Telluride Film Festival.  The NC-17 rating, the rumors about some of the content and the additionally rumored clash between Dominik and Netflix over that content have all been reasons that I have been hesitant to conclude that it could be at TFF #49.

But… the release this week of what I think is a killer teaser, the reveal that Netflix is releasing the film on Sept. 23rd plus persistent buzz that the film is likely premiering at Venice and the good relationship over that last few years between TFF and Netflix have me re-thinking my position.  

At this point I think there is some chance that Blonde makes an appearance in the San Juans.  

As many readers are aware, I have been following the film for some time now with the notion that it could land at Telluride at some point.  It has been and remains one of my most anticipated films of the year.

Here's the teaser from Netflix (which I bet a lot of you have already seen) via YouTube:

Here are the details directly from Netflix.

WORLD OF REEL'S LIST FOR FESTS

Jordan Ruimy posted a list of 70 films that he believes are likely to play at least part of the festival gauntlet this fall.  That generally means the quartet of fests: Telluride, Venice, Toronto and New York.  Venice is actually the kickoff each season with Telluride taking off before Venice ends.  Toronto follows quickly thereafter and New York then happens in October.

Jordan breaks it down into various categories starting with what he calls "The Hot 20".  Taking a look at those, for fun, I have repeated Jordan's list but placed the films in the order of what I think right now is the likeliest to make the TFF #49 lineup.  So...from most to least likely:

1) Bardo (Inarritu)

2) White Noise (Baumbach)

3) Women Talking (Polley)

4) The Son (Zeller)

5) The Master Gardener (P. Schrader)

6) TAR (Field)

7) The Wonder (Lelio)

8) The Pale Blue Eye (Cooper)

9) She Said (M. Schrader)

10) Bones and All (Guadagnino)

11) Blonde (Dominik)

12) The Whale (Aronofsky)

13) Next Goal Wins (Waititi)

14) The Good Nurse (Linholm)

15) Passages (Sachs)

16) Red, White and Water (Neigebauer)

17) The Banshees of Inisherin (McDonagh)

18) Don't Worry Darling (Wilde)

19) Eileen (Oldroyd)

20) The Eternal Daughter (Hogg)

Ruimy then adds "The Next 20" and from that list the films that seems most possible are:

The Lost King (Frears)

Marlowe (Jordan)

Ticket to Paradise (Parker)

Then among the 30 other films that Ruimy includes:

Chevalier (Williams)

No Bears (Panahi)

Persuasion (Cracknell)

We'll see what happens and may have some early news this week as Toronto is reportedly going to name some of their lineup this week.

TO BABYLON OR NOT TO BABYLON?

We've seen reports that Paramount is unsure whether to take Damien Chazelle's Babylon to fall fests.  The above mentioned post from World of Reel suggests both possibilities.  Jordan writes both that "Chazelle...is skipping the fall fests" and then in the next paragraph Jordan writes:

 "A few surprises could (probably will) sneak in. I’m thinking maybe Chazelle’s “Babylon” ultimately decides to go the way of fall festivals."

We know that the film is more or less ready as reports of test screenings were coming in late March.  I've reminded readers that Chazelle has played both La La Land and First Man at Telluride but that history might cut both ways.  La La Land's ultimate Best Picture loss and First Man's inability to ignite much Oscar love (save for its win for Visual Effects and three other tech nominations) might make a difference in the choice of whether to offer the film to T-ride.

I'd like to believe that it makes the TFF #49 list.  Just like Blonde...Babylon is high on my list of most anticipated.

GDT'S PINOCCHIO?

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio screened a new trailer and other footage at the Annecy Animation Festival this week.  Del Toro told audience members that the film was:

“10 minutes from being finished', and that crews are currently working on 60 different sets at once to get the film done in time."  according to Screen Daily.

GDT has been beloved at Telluride.  The fest screened his Oscar Best Picture winner The Shape of Water in 2017 and last year TFF collaborated for a special screening of Nightmare Alley on Dec. 1st 2021.  So you have to think that if Pinocchio is ready, it could be a Telluride selection.

Here's the teaser that appeared back in January from YouTube:

Here's the article from Screen Daily.

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Checking Cannes / Ethan Coen and Jerry Lee

 CHECKING CANNES

I'm continuing to monitor the critical reactions to films unspooling at the 75th Cannes Film Festival which hits its half way point today.  The fest is set to end on Saturday.

Looking at the combination of critical responses that is curated by Reini Urban here are some of the films that I have on my TFF #49 radar and their current combined rating (on a 10 point scale) as well as their position on the overall Cannes chart which includes virtually every film that is screening within any part of the festival:

10) Decision to Leave (Park Chan-wook) 9.08

14) Close (Lukas Dhont) 8.40

24) Holy Spider (Ali Abbasi) 7.91

34) Final Cut (Michel Hazanavicius)

42) One Fine Morning (Mia Hansen-Love) 7.17

52) Armageddon Time (James Gray) 6.94

55) All the People I'll Never Be (David Chou) 6.84

59) Showing Up (Kelly Reichardt) 6.75

68) R.M.N. (Cristian Mungiu) 6.66

Still waiting for enough critical responses to evaluate The Dardennes' Tori and Lokita and Hirokazu Kore-eda's Broker.

For a closer look at individual responses to the Palme d'Or competitors I have linked the charts for that from:

Screen Daily

Ioncinema

The Palme d'Or winner and Telluride cross over in recent years:

2019: Parasite

2018: Shoplifters

2013: Blue Is the Warmest Colour

2012: Amour

2009: The White Ribbon

2007: 4 Months, 3 Weeks, Two Days

2005: L'Enfant

2003: Elephant

ETHAN COEN AND JERRY LEE

Ethan Coen's documentary Jerry Lee Lewis: Trouble in Mind dropped yesterday at Cannes with a second screening scheduled for today.  The film is being produced (in part) and distributed by A24.  That and the fact that Coen and his co-producer T-Bone Burnett were co-recipients of a TFF Tribute for TFF #40-2013) gives a glimmer of hope that the doc could be a selection for TFF #49.

Coen was interviewed recently by Deadline's Mike Fleming, Jr. about the project.  That is linked here.

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At Cannes: Acquisitions for TFF Possibilities: Return to Soul and R.M.N. / Early Reactions from Cannes

 AT CANNES: ACQUISITIONS FOR TFF POSSIBLES RETURN TO SOUL AND R.M.N.

Variety reports that Sony Pictures Classics has taken distribution rights for David Chou's Return to Soul.  That moves into the "in consideration" position vis-a-vis TFF #49.  Variety describes the film as follows:

"The pic centers on 25-year-old Freddie, who impulsively returns to South Korea for the first time, where she was born before being adopted and raised in France. The headstrong young woman starts looking for her biological parents in a country she knows so little about, taking her life in new and unexpected directions."

The Variety story is linked here.

Meanwhile, Indiewire has reported that IFC Films has acquired R.M.N. the latest film from Cristian Mungiu. Mungiu was at Telluride in 2007 with his 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days.  The IFC acquisition could set the stage for return to T-ride in September.

The description form Indiewire:

It "follows the return of Matthias (Marin Grigore) to his multi-ethnic Transylvanian village, where he wishes to involve himself more in the education of his son and to rid the boy of his unresolved fears. When new workers arrive at a factory owned by Matthias’ ex-lover Csilla (Judith State) the peace of the community is disturbed and fears, frustrations, and conflicts erupt."

The Indiewire article is here.

EARLY REACTIONS FROM CANNES

As is common for this space, I'm keeping an eye on the collective critcal response through Reini Urban's Cannes Critics Ratings. The early response for some films that could play Telluride that are rating a combined 6.0 or better on a 10 point scale include:

One Fine Morning

Brother and Sister

Showing Up 

Return to Soul

You can find the complete rundown linked here.

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Two 2023 Oscar Lists: Indiewire and World of Reel / Coming Soon to a Theater Near You

TWO OSCAR 2023 LISTS

Both Indiewire and World of Reel posted lengthy Oscar Best Picture lists for 2023 this past week.  Indiwire's list had 35 titles while World of Reel had a list of 23.  Between the two list there were 11 films that made both lists (in no particular order):

Baz Lurman's Elvis

Martin Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon 

Steven Spielberg's The Fablemans

Maria Schrader's She Said

Damien Chazelle's Babylon

Kasi Lemmons' I Wanna Dance with Somebody

Kelly Reicharadt's Showing Up

Martin McDaonagh's The Banshees of Inisherin

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's Bardo

Florian Zeller's The Son

Todd Field's TAR

Your five best Telluride bets from this combined list: Bardo, Showing Up, The Son, Babylon and TAR.

You can take a look at the complete lists and  analysis for each outlet.  

The Indiewire post is here.

The World of Reel post is here.

COMNG SOON TO A THEATER NEAR YOU

The Film Stage posted a list of 40+ films with release dates this summer which is revelatory in two ways in as far as Telluride film fans are concerned.  First, the list lets us know what films are OFF the list for TFF consideration i.e. David Cronenberg's Crimes of the Future.  The list also tells us when films that have screened (or would have screened at Telluride in one case) will be released.

According to the article these TFF films are pout as follows:

TFF #47 announced film Apples on June 24th.

From TFF #48:

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On on June 24th

Bitterbrush on June 24th 

Three Minutes: A Lengthening on August 19th

The complete Film Stage post is linked here.

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Trailer for Hirokazu Kore-eda's Broker / Nathaniel Rogers April Foolish Oscar Predix and TFF #49

TRAILER FOR HIROKAZU KORE-EDA'S TRAILER

Playing Cannes in a few weeks is the latest film from Hirokazu Kore-eda.  Broker is described my IMDb as:

"Boxes that are left out for people to anonymously drop off their unwanted babies."

Seriously...that's what IMDb actually says.  I have seen the film titled "Baby Broker" which gives, perhaps, a little more insight into the film.

Kore-eda played TFF in 2018 with Shoplifters.  Now, with his latest film playing Cannes and competing for the Palme d'Or, we could see his return to Telluride.

Here's the recently released trailer ahead of its screening at Cannes:

Additionally, news about the film and trailer are linked here from The Film Stage.

NATHANIEL ROGERS APRIL FOOLISH PREDIX AND TFF #49

Nathaniel Rogers who runs The Film Experience Blog has up his initial 2022-23 Best Picture Oscar contenders and here's what films are on it (and "in contention") that could make noise at TFF #49:

Killers of the Flower Moon

The Son

White Noise

Babylon

Poor Things

Armageddon Time

Empire of Light

Rustin

The Killer

Women Talking

And among the films listed also are:

Red, White and Water

Showing Up

The Stars at Noon

The Whale

Cassandro

Golda

Crimes of the Future

Tar

Blonde

Shirley

The Wonder

Pinocchio

Chevalier

Next Goal Wins

Carmen

Asteroid City

Bardo

Rogers' complete Best Picture take is liked here.

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