Post TFF 50 / Oscar Thoughts/ The Bikeriders Trailer / The People's Telluride

POST TFF 50

Random thoughts as we look at TFF #50 for the first time in the rearview mirror. 

***The tradition continues.  Once again I went 24 out of 25 on the Final Bets posting.  I had The Settlers in the #25 spot.  That apparently was filled by the sneak of Totem.  In addition to the 24 on the actual list one of the other "possibles" made the lineup-Daina O. Pusic's Tuesday.

Here's the track record for the past several years:

2022: 24 of 25

2021: 24 of 25 

2020: No fest

2019: 24 of 25

2018: 25 of 25

2017: 24 of 25

2016: 20 of 20

With the 2023 total added in, over eight years MTFB is 140/145.  Accurate 97% of the time.

***I thought the lineup was strong across the board this year and that sentiment seemed to be echoed across the journalists and pundits I spook with but also standing in line with the other passholders.  It'll be interesting to see if The People's Poll, The Professional's Poll or both bear that out with hard numbers.

***I'm looking to post The Pros next Monday and The People on the following Monday (Sept. 18) with The Composite poll capping our numbers game on Thursday, Sept. 21.

OSCAR THOUGHTS

Here's my early post T-ride take on Oscar chances for some TFF #50 films:

***Poor Things is likely going to be the most nominated film with a Telluride pedigree.  I can see nominations for Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Stone), Supporting Actor-maybe times two Ruffalo (and possibly Dafoe), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Makeup/Hair, Costumes. Maybe Original Score and Visual Effects.

***The Holdovers might be the most popular title in terms of mass appeal,  Possible nominations for Picture, Direction, Actor (Giamatti), Supporting Actress (Randolph), Original Screenplay.  Maybe Supporting Actor (Sessa).

***The Bikeriders-There was a good deal of buzz around the performances of Austin Butler, Tom Hardy and especially Jodie Comer.  Enough to land each of them nominations?  Hard to tell.  Would three acting nominations manifest a Best Picture nomination?  Possibly.

***Nyad-Actress (Bening), Supporting Actress (Foster).  Maybe Picture, Direction, Cinematography and Adapted Screenplay.

***Rustin-Actor (Domingo)  Maybe Original Screenplay...outside shot at Best Picture.

***All of Us Strangers- Actor (Scott), Supporting Actor (Mescal)  Lots of people loved this film last weekend.  It could land in the conversation for Adapted Screenplay and Picture

***Saltburn- Barry Keoghan is a possibility  for Best Actor but Emerald Fennell's sophomore effort might have been the most divisive film from TFF #50.

***I'd love to see Sean Penn and (I can't believe I'm writing this) Dakota Johnson get some attention for Daddio along with Christy Hall for writing the screenplay.  It's be cool, too, if Julia Louis-Dreyfus made some noise for her turn in Tuesday.

***Docs: The Pigeon Tunnel, American Symphony, Tehacapi, Beyond Utopia and Food Inc. 2.

***International: Perfect Days, The Teachers' Lounge, La Chimera, Fallen Leaves, The Zone of Interest, Anatomy of a Fall, The Taste of Things

THE BIKERIDERS TRAILER

THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE

You have another week until the clock runs out on you chance to be a part of this year's People's poll of TFF #50 films.

All you have to do is rate the films you saw  and then report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".

Report your ratings to: mpgort@gmail.com 

The deadline for this year to turn in your ratings will be Sept. 15th.

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Checking the Distributors: A24 / More Venetian Thoughts

CHECKING THE DISTRIBUTORS: A24

Today continues our parade through film distribution companies that have had the largest presence at Telluride over the last 7-8 years and because of that are generally the most likely to place films into the TFF #50 lineup.  Today's candidate is A24 which, since 2015, has been the third most ubiquitous distrib at TFF with an average of just under hair under 2 films each year chosen to be in the Telluride list:  Here's their rundown of films since 2015:

2015-Room

2016-Moonlight

2017-First Reformed, Lady Bird, Lean on Pete

2019-Uncut Gems, Waves, First Cow

2021-C'mon C'mon, Red Rocket, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

2022-Aftersun, Close

Prior to 2015 A24 also screened Ginger + Rosa in 2012 and Under the Skin in 2013.

For 2023 and TFF #50 A24 has these films that are the most likely to appear and the chance that actually happens:

The Zone of Interest-50%

Priscilla-40%

Occupied City-30%

Love Lies Bleeding-20%

Tuesday-10%

MORE VENETIAN THOUGHTS

From The Hollywood Reporter this week, another spec piece about films that could play The Lido.  And then, of course, our job is to look at that list and parse what might be scheduled early enough to cross the Atlantic and be in Telluride a day or so later.

From the THR list, here are my guesses as to the films that could follow that scenario:

Poor Things/Lanthimos

Challengers/Gaudagnino

Maestro/Cooper

Saltburn/Fennell

Io Capitano/Garrone

Priscilla/Coppola

The Book of Clarence/Samuels

Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

Drive Away Dolls/Coen

The Holdovers/Payne

Daaaaaali!/Dupieux

From this list the most likely by far is Alexander Payne's The Holdovers (though I think Nyad is a solid prediction too).  Least Likely are Bradley Cooper's Maestro and Ethan Coen's Drive Away Dolls.

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A24 Is Loaded / Ruimy Looks at Telluride / ICYMI: The First Ten Bets for TFF #49

 A24 IS LOADED

As I continue to review various distributors that have had a significant presence at past Telluride Film Festivals I marvel at how many possible films A24 has in play.  A24 appeared on the Telluride scene in 2012 with Ginger + Rosa.  Since then A24 has been a consistent player at TFF:

2012-Ginger + Rosa

2013-Under the Skin

2015-Room

2016-Moonlight

2017-First Reformed, Lady Bird, Lean on Pete

2019-Uncut Gems,Waves, First Cow

2021-C'mon C'mon, Red Rocket

So, as you can see, not every year but most years and the last three times A24 has landed multiple films at T-ride.  Likely they're going to get multiple films in this year too as the A24 larder is brimming with intriguing possible choices.  In alphabetical order with director listed (***indicates a film on my first "Ten Bets" for the fest posted last Monday):

Aftersun/Wells***

Close/Dhont***

Jerry Lee Lewis: Trouble in Mind/Coen

Red, White and Water/Neigebauer

Showing Up/Reichardt***

Stars at Noon/Denis

Tuesday/Onunis-Pusic

The Whale/Aronofsky

White Noise/Baumbach***

That's nine possibles and doesn't count fairly high profile titles from Joanna Hogg (The Eternal Daughter), Ari Aster (Disappointment Blvd.) or Alex Garland (Civil War).

You can also see that I have four of the nine listed in the first Ten Bets. I'm betting big on A24 for TFF this year. 

RUIMY LOOKS AT TELLURIDE

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel has stepped into "figure out Telluride" mode with a post from yesterday.  His first review of what could come very kindly sources MTFB for some of the post.  However, Jordan does mention additional titles that I don't necessarily have in my Top Ten at the moment or in the additional "maybe titles" (see below). 

Ruimy includes the potential for the following to be at TFF #49:

Todd Fields' TAR

Scott Cooper's The Pale Blue Eye

Sebastian Lelio's The Wonder

Luca Guadagnino's Bones and All

Darren Aronofsky's The Whale

Martin McDonagh's The Banshees of Inisherin

Make no mistake here.  I have almost all of these titles in my "be aware of it" list for a possible play at TFF #49 with the exception of McDonagh's Banshees of Inisherin.  If you're an MTFB reader, do yourself a favor and check out World of Reel from time to time.  Jordan is great at sussing this stuff out.

Here's his post that I'm referencing.

ICYMI: THE FIRST TEN BETS FOR TFF #49

I'm re-posting the first Ten Bets for Telluride as this would, in a normal year, be the date that I would have posted the first stab at trying to guess Telluride.  Here it is again:

1) Bardo/Inarritu

2) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

3) The Son/Zeller

4) Close/Dhont

5) Women Talking/Polley

6) Aftersun/Wells

7) Showing Up/Reichardt

8) White Noise/Baumbach

9) Broker/Kore-eda

10) She Said/M. Schrader

Others: Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, Holy Spider/Abdasi, Blonde/Dominik, The Master Gardener/P. Schrader, Next Goal Wins/Waititi, The Forger/Peren, Babylon/Chazelle, TAR/Fields

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Hansen-Love in Play / Look for Tuesday / Pics from Cannes-Telluride Possibilities

HANSEN-LOVE IN PLAY

World of Reel reports that Mia Hansen -Love's One Fine Morning will play as a part of the Director's Fortnight that runs alongside the Cannes Film Festival (May 17-28).  The film is definitely of note as Hansen-Love has long been a favorite of Telluride programmers.   Hansen-Love fare that has screened at Telluride includes Bergman Island, Things to Come and Goodbye First Love.  You have to figure that there is a high likelihood that this new film makes the jump from Cannes to Telluride.

The World of Reel story is linked here.

LOOK FOR TUESDAY

Friend of MTFB and general film genius Jason Osiason has dug up a great TFF #49 potential.  He has tracked the film Tuesday and its director Daina Oniunas-Pusic.  Oniunas-Pusic has had two shorts make the Telluride program: 2015's The Beast and 2016's Rhonna and Donna.

The film is described as a "drama-fantasy" and features Julia Louis-Dreyfus of Veep/Seinfeld/SNL fame.  The fil also comes from A24 which also lends some credence to the notion that a Telluride play is a possibility.

Tuesday's Wikipedia entry is linked here and its IMDb page is linked here.

PICS FROM CANNES/TELLURIDE POSSIBILITIES

Along with last week's announcement of Cannes titles for 2022 were photos from a number of the films. Of course, I have targeted some of those titles as TFF #49 possibilities and so pass on some of the pics that were released last week:

George Miller's Three Thousand Years of Longing:

The Dardennes Brothers Tori and Lokita

Arnaud Desplain's Brother and Sister

More to come...

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