MTFB Oscar Update: Best Picture and More / Oscar Thoughts / Extended Trailer for Salvatore / Visitations: Women Talking, Bardo and Sr.

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: BEST PICTURE AND MORE

Here's the last update for these major categories prior to final predictions that will post on the Sunday morning of the Oscars (March 12th).  A film's previous ranking from two weeks ago is indicated to the right in parentheses. TFF films are indicated in Bold.

 BEST PICTURE

1) Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

2) The Banshees of Inisherin (3)

3) The Fabelmans (2)

4) Top Gun: Maverick (5)

5) All Quiet on the Western Front (7)

6) TAR (5)

7) Elvis (6)

8) Triangle of Sadness (8)

9) Avatar: The Way of Water (9)

10) Women Talking (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert/Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

2) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans (2)

3) Todd Field/TAR (3)

4) Martin McDonagh/The Bnashees of Inisherin (4)

5) Ruben Ostlund/Triangle of Sadness (5)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Cate Blanchett/TAR (1)

2) Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

3) Andrea Riseborough/To Leslie (5)

4) Michelle Williams/The Fabelmans (3)

5) Ana de Armas/Blonde (4)

BEST ACTOR

1) Austin Butler/Elvis (2)

2) Brendan Fraser/The Whale (1)

3) Colin Farrell/The Banshees of Inisherin (3)

4) Bill Nighy/Living (4)

5) Paul Mescal/Aftersun (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

2) Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere All at Once (3)

3) Angela Bassett/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (1)

4) Stephanie Hsu/Everything Everywhere All at Once (4)

5) Hong Chau/The Whale (5)

BEST SUPPORTNG ACTOR

1) Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

2) Brendan Gleeson/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

3) Barry Koeghan/The Banshees of Inisherin (4)

4) Judd Hirsch/The Fabelmans (3)

5) Bryan Tyree Henry/Causeway (5)

OSCAR THOUGHTS

The BAFTA win for Austin Butler seemed to have lifted him over Brendan Fraser in the Best Actor race and BAFTA also seemed to solidify Cate Blanchett's position over Michelle Yeoh, then the SGA's happened last night and it's all back up in the air again.  

DGA, PGA  and SAG Ensemble wins for Everything Everywhere All at Once have solidified its position for Best Picture and Best Direction. 

PGA- TFF nominees were wiped out across the board.  TAR, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On and Retrograde were the only TFF films nominated and none won.  You could make a bit of a case for Navalny's PGA win for Documentary being TFF-adjacent as it screened prior to the fest's start at Elk Park.  Also, TFF touches just a bit on Everything Everywhere All at Once with the special screening of Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon and the appearance at the fest of Michelle Yeoh.

SAG- Everything Everywhere won everything everywhere.  Ensemble, Actress (Yeoh), Supporting Actress (Curtis) and Supporting Actor (Quan).  Brendan Fraser gained back some ground with his SAG win over Austin Butler.  That goes back to being a tight race.  Yeoh's win did the same in Best Actress with Blanchett and Jamie Lee Curtis's win throws Supporting Actress into a real tizzy.  

Quan's win means he is locked and the Ensemble prize seems to lock Everything Everywhere for Best Picture.  EEAAO could end up with six Oscars in two weeks time.

this next two weeks are going to be crazy.

EXTENDED TRAILER FOR SALVATORE

Sony Pictures Classics released an extended trailer this week for Luca Guadagnino's documentary Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams.  The film has already been released.

VISITATIONS

Women Talking: Sarah Polley with Indiewire and Ben Whishaw with The Standard.

Sr. : Chris Smith with The National Board of Review.

Bardo: Alejandro Inarritu and Darius Khondji with Indiewire.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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My First Ten Bets for 2022 / A Look at Blonde / World of Reel's List of Films for Fests / To Babylon or not to Babylon / GDT's Pinocchio?

MY FIRST TEN BETS FOR 2022

Normally my first list of predicting 10 possible Telluride films comes a little later in June but the news that Toronto will announce some titles this week has made it imperative that I launch the first TFF #49 Ten Bets a bit earlier.  So, to that end, here are Ten Bets for TFF #49 (in order of my feeling that they make the list):

1) Bardo/Inarritu

2) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

3) The Son/Zeller

4) Close/Dhont

5) Women Talking/Polley

6) Aftersun/Wells

7) Showing Up/Reichardt

8) White Noise/Baumbach

9) Broker/Kore-eda

10) She Said/M. Schrader

Others: Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, Holy Spider/Abdasi, Blonde/Dominik, The Master Gardener/P. Schrader, Next Goal Wins/Waititi, The Forger/Peren, Babylon/Chazelle, TAR/Fields

A LOOK AT BLONDE

I have been reticent to include Andrew Dominik’s Blonde as a serious contender for screening at this year’s Telluride Film Festival.  The NC-17 rating, the rumors about some of the content and the additionally rumored clash between Dominik and Netflix over that content have all been reasons that I have been hesitant to conclude that it could be at TFF #49.

But… the release this week of what I think is a killer teaser, the reveal that Netflix is releasing the film on Sept. 23rd plus persistent buzz that the film is likely premiering at Venice and the good relationship over that last few years between TFF and Netflix have me re-thinking my position.  

At this point I think there is some chance that Blonde makes an appearance in the San Juans.  

As many readers are aware, I have been following the film for some time now with the notion that it could land at Telluride at some point.  It has been and remains one of my most anticipated films of the year.

Here's the teaser from Netflix (which I bet a lot of you have already seen) via YouTube:

Here are the details directly from Netflix.

WORLD OF REEL'S LIST FOR FESTS

Jordan Ruimy posted a list of 70 films that he believes are likely to play at least part of the festival gauntlet this fall.  That generally means the quartet of fests: Telluride, Venice, Toronto and New York.  Venice is actually the kickoff each season with Telluride taking off before Venice ends.  Toronto follows quickly thereafter and New York then happens in October.

Jordan breaks it down into various categories starting with what he calls "The Hot 20".  Taking a look at those, for fun, I have repeated Jordan's list but placed the films in the order of what I think right now is the likeliest to make the TFF #49 lineup.  So...from most to least likely:

1) Bardo (Inarritu)

2) White Noise (Baumbach)

3) Women Talking (Polley)

4) The Son (Zeller)

5) The Master Gardener (P. Schrader)

6) TAR (Field)

7) The Wonder (Lelio)

8) The Pale Blue Eye (Cooper)

9) She Said (M. Schrader)

10) Bones and All (Guadagnino)

11) Blonde (Dominik)

12) The Whale (Aronofsky)

13) Next Goal Wins (Waititi)

14) The Good Nurse (Linholm)

15) Passages (Sachs)

16) Red, White and Water (Neigebauer)

17) The Banshees of Inisherin (McDonagh)

18) Don't Worry Darling (Wilde)

19) Eileen (Oldroyd)

20) The Eternal Daughter (Hogg)

Ruimy then adds "The Next 20" and from that list the films that seems most possible are:

The Lost King (Frears)

Marlowe (Jordan)

Ticket to Paradise (Parker)

Then among the 30 other films that Ruimy includes:

Chevalier (Williams)

No Bears (Panahi)

Persuasion (Cracknell)

We'll see what happens and may have some early news this week as Toronto is reportedly going to name some of their lineup this week.

TO BABYLON OR NOT TO BABYLON?

We've seen reports that Paramount is unsure whether to take Damien Chazelle's Babylon to fall fests.  The above mentioned post from World of Reel suggests both possibilities.  Jordan writes both that "Chazelle...is skipping the fall fests" and then in the next paragraph Jordan writes:

 "A few surprises could (probably will) sneak in. I’m thinking maybe Chazelle’s “Babylon” ultimately decides to go the way of fall festivals."

We know that the film is more or less ready as reports of test screenings were coming in late March.  I've reminded readers that Chazelle has played both La La Land and First Man at Telluride but that history might cut both ways.  La La Land's ultimate Best Picture loss and First Man's inability to ignite much Oscar love (save for its win for Visual Effects and three other tech nominations) might make a difference in the choice of whether to offer the film to T-ride.

I'd like to believe that it makes the TFF #49 list.  Just like Blonde...Babylon is high on my list of most anticipated.

GDT'S PINOCCHIO?

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio screened a new trailer and other footage at the Annecy Animation Festival this week.  Del Toro told audience members that the film was:

“10 minutes from being finished', and that crews are currently working on 60 different sets at once to get the film done in time."  according to Screen Daily.

GDT has been beloved at Telluride.  The fest screened his Oscar Best Picture winner The Shape of Water in 2017 and last year TFF collaborated for a special screening of Nightmare Alley on Dec. 1st 2021.  So you have to think that if Pinocchio is ready, it could be a Telluride selection.

Here's the teaser that appeared back in January from YouTube:

Here's the article from Screen Daily.

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