MTFB Oscar Take: Lead Acting Update / New York Film Critics Circle and TFF #49 / Trailers, Teasers and Clips / Visitations : Downey Jr., Inarittu, Guadagnino and More

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: LEAD ACTING UPDATE 

I am updating predictions in the categories of Best Actress and Best Actor.  These were last predicted on Nov. 21st.  Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses.  Performances from TFF #49 are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Cate Blanchett/TAR (1)

2) Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

3) Michelle Williams/The Fabelmans (4)

4) Danielle Deadwyler/Till (3)

5) Margot Robbie/Babylon (5)

6) Viola Davis/The Woman King (7)

7) Olivia Colman/Empire of Light (6)

BEST ACTOR

1) Brendan Fraser/The Whale (1)

2) Colin Ferrell/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

3) Austin Butler/Elvis (3)

4) Bill Nighy/Living (4)

5) Tom Cruise/Top Gun: Maverick (6)

6) Hugh Jackman/The Son (7)

7) Gabriel LaBelle/The Fabelmans (New)

Out: Diego Calva/Babylon

NEW YORK FILM CRITICS CIRCLE AND TFF #9 FILMS

New York critics tapped three TFF #49 films and a TFF #48 film with a total of five awards on Friday with Todd Field's TAR leading the charge winning awards for Best Feature and Best Actress for Cate Blanchett's searing performance.  Charlotte Wells' Aftersun was lauded for Best First Feature.  The other TFF #49 recognition was for Laura Poitras' documentary on the life and work of photographer and activist nan Goldin: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed.

TFF #48's Marcel the Shell with Shoes On was named the year's Best Animated Feature.  Congrats to Dean Fleischer Camp and Jenny Slate and the whole Marcel crew.  Regular readers know that Marcel is on of my passions this awards season.

In other NYFCC news of note, Martin McDonagh's The Banshees of Inisherin made noise with two wins.  One for Best Actor for Colin Farrell and the other for McDonagh's Screenplay.

The complete list of winners is linked here from the NYFCC.

TRAILERS, TEASERS AND CLIPS

Trailer for Hirokazu Kore-eda's Broker from YouTube:

Trailer for Mia Hansen-Love's One Fine Morning from YouTube:

Clip from Sam Mendes' Empire of Light from YouTube:

VISITATIONS

Robert Downey, Jr. on his documentary about his father- Sr. from the Associated Press.

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu on Bardo: A False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths from Awards Watch.

Also Inarittu from Deadline.

Luca Guadagnino on Bones and All from Deadline. 

Actor Micheal Ward on Empire of Light from The Hollywood Reporter.

Director Ryan White on Good Night Oppy from Variety.

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The People's Telluride-TFF #49/ The Fabelman's Wins Toronto / Belgium Chooses Close / New Poster for The Wonder

THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE-TFF#49

Two weeks after the 49th Telluride Film Festival, here are the results from this year's People's ratings of the films that played there.

I asked for readers of MTFB to rate the films they saw over Labor Day weekend at TFF #49 on a 1-5 scale and submit that information to me.  I then complied the responses (nearly 50 this year) and averaged them all to arrive at each film's ratings.  To make the cut, only films that received at least a third of the total number of respondents were included to insure the sampling size was sufficient. 13 films qualified for listing.  You'll see the results below after a brief trip down The People's Telluride memory lane.

The first People's Telluride was posted on Sept. 10, 2012.  The top ten films from that year's fest from the populist perspective were:

1) Stories We Tell- 4.80

2) Argo- 4.75

3) The Attack- 4.70

4) The Act of Killing-4.41

5) Wadjda-4.2

6) Amour 4.17

7) Barbara- 4.17

8) The Sapphires-4.11

9) Frances Ha-4.07

10) (Tie)The Hunt and Baraka - 4.00

In subsequent years the top ten were:

2013:

1) Tim's Vermeer (4.67)

2) 12 Years a Slave (4.55)

3) Gravity (4.40)

4) The Lunchbox (4.25)

5) Inside Llewyn Davis (4.15)

6) Nebraska (4.08)

7) All is Lost (4.06)

8) The Wind Rises (4.0)

9) Ida (4.0)

10) The Past (3.81)

2014:

1) The Imitation Game (4.73)

2) Birdman (4.46)

3) Wild Tales (4.23)

4) Foxcatcher (4.20)

5) Merchants of Doubt (4.04)

6) '71 (3.90)

7) Red Army (3.63)

8) Wild (Tie 3.50)

8) Escobar: Paradise Lost (Tie 3.50)

8) Mommy (Tie 3.50)

2015:

1) Room (4.47)

2) Spotlight (4.45)

3) Beasts of No Nation (4.35)

4) Ixcanul (4.31)

5) Son of Saul (4.30)

6) Marguerite (4.23)

7) Black Mass (4.13)

8) Carol (4.02)

9) Rams (3.98)

10) Steve Jobs (3.86)

2016:

1) Moonlight (4.37)

2) La La Land (4.33)

3) Maudie (4.29)

4) The Eagle Huntress (4.21)

5) Manchester by the Sea (4.18)

6) Arrival (4.13)

7) Bright Lights (3.90)

8) Frantz (3.89)

9) Toni Erdmann (3.80)

10) Sully (3.79)

2017:

1) Lady Bird (4.38)

2) The Shape of Water (4.22)

3) Darkest Hour (4.04)

4) Hostiles (3.99)

5) Faces Places (3.71)

6) Battle of the Sexes (3.68)

7) Lean on  Pete (3.66)

8) Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (3.57)

9) The Other Side of Hope (3.45)

10) Wonderstruck (3.43)

2018

1) Roma (4.47)

2) First Man (4.34)

3) Shoplifters (4.29)

4) Boy Erased (4.23)

5) Free Solo (4.19)

6) Cold War (4.02)

7) White Boy Rick (3.88)

8) Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3.81)

9) The Favourite (3.76)

10) The Front Runner (3.69)

2019:

1) The Two Popes (4.51)

2) Parasite (4.36)

3) Ford v. Ferrari (4.35)

4) Marriage Story (4.14)

5) Pain and Glory (3.81-Tie)

5) A Hidden Life (3.81-Tie)

7) Judy (3.80)

8) The Aeronauts (3.67)

9) The Report (3.66)

10) Motherless Brooklyn (3.64)

11) Lyrebird (3.62)

12) Waves (3.61)

13) Inside Bill's Brain (3.39)

14) Uncut Gems (3.22)

15) The Climb (3.07)

16) First Cow (3.02)

No People's poll in 2020.

 2021:

1) The Power of the Dog (4.63)

2) The Rescue (4.20)

3) Julia (4.18)

4) Belfast (4.12)

5) King Richard (4.06)

6) C'mon C'mon (3.93)

7) The Hand of God (3.83)

8) Cyrano (3,62)

9) A Hero (3.60)

10) Marcel the Shell (3.57)

11) The Duke (3.53)

12) Spencer-tie- (3.50)

12) The Electrical Life of Louis Wain-tie- (3.50)

14) The Lost Daughter (3.44)

15) Red Rocket (3.41)

16) Petite Maman (3.25)

17) The French Dispatch (2.50)

18) Encounter (2.43)

AND NOW...THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE FOR 2022:

1) Women Talking 4.22

2) TAR 4.20

3) Sr. 3.98

4) The Wonder 3.86-(TIE)

4) One Fine Morning 3.86 (TIE)
6) Bones and All 3.77

7) Living 3.70

8) Aftersun 3.63

9) Armageddon Time 3.62

10) Broker 3.57

11) Godland 3.50

12) Empire of Light 3.43

13) Lady Chatterley's Lover 3.31

The most watched films were: TAR, Women Talking and Empire of Light, all of which were seen and rated by 85% of all respondents to the poll.  Other films that were viewed by over half the respondents were:

Bones and All 72%

Armageddon Time 68%

The Wonder 57%

Living and Broker 55%

The People's poll included three films that were not in The Professional's poll: Sr., Broker and Godland.  Interestingly, the film I heard the most positive buzz about all weekend was Ryan White's Good Night Oppy.  Neither The People or the Pros had enough views for the film to qualify in either poll.

Also...here are the Best Picture Oscar nominees from Telluride that have landed on the Peoples list for each year since it was started in 2012:

2012: Argo-4.75 (Winner) #2, Amour-4.17 #6

2013: 12 Years a Slave-4.55 (Winner) #2, Gravity-4.40 #3, Nebraska-4.08 #6

2014: Birdman-4.46 (Winner) #2, The Imitation Game-4.73 #1

2015: Spotlight-4.45 (Winner) #2, Room-4.47 #1

2016: Moonlight-4.37 (Winner) #1, La La Land 4.33 #2, Manchester by the Sea-4.18 #5, Arrival-4.13 #6

2017: The Shape of Water-4.22 #2 (Winner), Lady Bird-4.38 #1, Darkest Hour-4.04 #3

2018: Roma-4.47, The Favourite-3.76 #9

2019: Parasite- 4.36  (Winner) #2, Ford v. Ferrari  4.35 #3, Marriage Story  4.14 #4

2021: The Power of the Dog- 4.63, Belfast- 4.12, King Richard 4.06

The all time People's Top Ten:

1) Stories We Tell (4.80) (12)

2) Argo (4.75) (12)-Won Best Picture

3) The Imitation Game (4.73) (14) Nominated Best Picture

4) The Attack (4.70) (12)

5) Tim's Vermeer (4.67) (13)

6) The Power of the Dog (4.63) (21) Nominated Best Picture 

7) 12 Years a Slave (4.55) (13) Won Best Picture

8) The Two Popes (4.51) (19)

9) Roma (4.47) (15) TIE Nominated Best Picture

9) Room (4.47) (18) TIE Nominated Best Picture

The Composite Telluride will go up on Monday!

THE FABELMANS WINS TORONTO

Steven Spielberg's semi-autobiographical film The Fabelman's was named the winner of the Toronto International Film Festival's People's Choice Award yesterday... to no one's surprise.  Considering critical and social media reactions to the film, the surprise would have been that it had not won.  Frankly, I thought from the buzz that was coming out of TIFF that the only film that might have a shot at denying the PC Award to The Fabelmans was Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery.  

As it turned out, the runner-up happened to be today's MTFB People's poll topper Women Talking.  Glass Onion ended up as the second runner-up.

I think you could fairly say that The Fabelmans is now the post Telluride-Venice-Toronto Best Picture frontrunner.  To my mind the only possible threat to it is the upcoming release of Damien Chazelle's Babylon.  I'll likely have my first set of Oscar predictions up on the blog a week from today as we close the book on the fest season for the most part and head into the Oscar season.

Complete coverage of TIFF awards is linked here from Deadline.com

BELGIUM CHOOSES CLOSE

Belgium revealed last Friday that it will submit Lukas Dhont's Close as its candidate for the International Feature Oscar.  The film, which you will note from above did not have enough views to qualify for this year's MTFB People's poll, could be a strong contender based on its reception atCannes where it won the Grand Prix award.

Close is described at IMDb as follows:

"The intense friendship between two thirteen-year old boys Leo and Remi suddenly gets disrupted. Struggling to understand what has happened, Léo approaches Sophie, Rémi's mother. "Close" is a film about friendship and responsibility."

Close is being distributed in the U.S. by A24 and, as yet has no release date.

NEW POSTER FOR THE WONDER

Netflix revealed a new poster for Sebastian DeLillo's The Wonder on Friday.  Here that is:

The film drops on Netflix on Nov. 16th.

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FINAL BETS FOR TFF #49 / Tribute Guesses? / What Does Ellwood Know? / Pugh? Maybe Not / The People's Telluride

FINAL BETS FOR TFF #49

This is my last stab at what's going to play at Telluride this week.  Of course we'll all find out the actual lineup on Thursday morning at 11:00 EDT/8PDT.  I'll wake up Thursday morning in Gunnison, Co. with about a 22 and 1/2 to 3 hour drive into Telluride.  My plan is to post the lineup when it lands Thursday morning and then skeedaddle to T-ride fairly quickly after.

Here's a reminder of what I had listed as my Ten (Plus) Bets last Thursday:

1) Empire of Light/Mendes

2) Women Talking/Polley

3) The Wonder/Lelio

4) Bardo/Iarritu

5) TAR/Field

6) Broker/Kore-eda

7) Holy Spider/Abbasi

8) Armageddon Time/Gray

9) Bones and All/Guadignino

10) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

11) Godland/Palmason

12) A Compassionate Spy/James

13) Good Night Oppy/White

14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog

15) Sr./Smith

16 The U.S, and the Holocaust/Burns

17) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed/Poitras

18) Close/Dhont

19) Something from Mark Cousins*

20) Aftersun/Wells

Others Possibilities: Living/Hermanus, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins*,  My Name Is Alfred Hitchcock/Cousins*,  March on Rome/Cousins*, Athena/Gavras, Anastasia/McCarthy, The Pupils/Rohrwacher

AND HERE ARE MY FINAL BETS FOR TFF #49

The last few years I average about 23 of 25 correct... 

2021: 24 of 25 correct.

2020: No fest

2019: 24 of 25

2018: 25 of 25

2017: 24 of 25

2016: 20 of 20

So, out of the last five years of Bets... 117 of 120.

We'll see what the 2022 rate is. 

And now the actual "Final Bets":

1) Empire of Light/Mendes

2) Women Talking/Polley

3) The Wonder/Lelio

4) Bardo/Iarritu

5) TAR/Field

6) Broker/Kore-eda

7) Holy Spider/Abbasi

8) Armageddon Time/Gray

9) Bones and All/Guadignino

10) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

11) Godland/Palmason

12) A Compassionate Spy/James

13) Good Night Oppy/White

14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog

15) Sr./Smith

16 The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns

17) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed/Poitras

18) Close/Dhont

19) March to Rome and/or My Name Is Alfred Hitchcock/Cousins

20) Aftersun/Wells

21) Living/Hermanus

22) Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy/Buirsky

23) The Pupils/Rohrwacher

24) Anastasia/McCarthy

25) Athena/Gavras

Others Possibilities:Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins

I'm still somewhat shaky on All the Beauty..., Aftersun, Living, Athena and the new adds of Anastasia and The Pupils.  We'll see what happens there.

World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy, who has worked this beat tirelessly this season, has reported this list of 23 films as of last Friday.  Jordan writes:

These are the 23 films that we know are Telluride-bound:

Tar (Field)

Bones and All (Guadagnino)

Bardo (Inarritu)

The Wonder (Leilo)

Empire of Light (Mendes)

Women Talking (Polley)

A Compassionate Spy (James)

My Name is Alfred Hitchcock (Cousins)

Theatre of Thought (Werner Herzog)

Aftersun (Charlotte Wells)

Godland (Hylnur Pálmason)

The US and the Holocaust (Ken Burns)

Sr. (Smith)

Good Night Oppy (White)

Holy Spider (Abbasi)

Armageddon Time (Gray)

One Fine Morning (Hansen-Løve)

Broker (Kore-eda)

Close (Dhont)

Living (Hermanus)

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Poitras)

Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy (Buirsky)

As you can see, our lists are almost exactly the same.

We'll know more in about 75 hours.

TRIBUTE GUESSES???

Bill Night/Living

Cate Blanchett/TAR

Olivia Colman/Empire of Light

Alejandro Inarritu/Bardo

Anne Hathaway/Armageddon Time

Anthony Hopkins/Armageddon Time

Jessica Chastain/Armageddon Time

Mark Rylance/Bones and All

Michael Stuhlbarg/Bones and All

If I get some solid intell on this before Thursday's announcement...I'll pass it on in a special post.

WHAT DOES ELLWOOD KNOW?

Last Friday Gregory Ellwood of The Playlist tweeted:

And my brain went..."What's that mean?"  

Ellwood had a couple of responses that guessed that Steven Spielberg's The Fableman's had been grabbed by TFF #49.  Ellwood said "No." to that.  So it got me wondering what it COULD mean.

Back on Aug. 8th I posted "Star Gazing at TFF #49 which was a listing of possible "names" that might be attending based on what films I thought at that time would play TFF.  I've added some further possibilities to that list:

Armageddon Time: Anne Hathaway, Jeremy Strong, Anthony Hopkins (who may have been a Tribute recipient had there been a TFF #47) and Jessica Chastain.

Bones and All: Timothee Chalamet, Taylor Russell***, Michael Stuhlbarg, Mark Rylance, Chloe Sevigny***.

Empire of Light: Colin Firth*** (Tribute 2010), Olivia Colman, Toby Jones.

One Fine Morning: Lea Seydoux***.

TAR: Cate Blanchett, Mark Strong, Nina Hoss

Women Talking: Jesse Buckley, Rooney Mara*** (Tribute 2015), Clare Foy, Ben Whishaw, Frances McDormand.

The Wonder: Florence Pugh (see story below), Toby Jones, Ciaran Hinds.

Living: Bill Nighy

Sr.: Robert Downey, Jr.

Desperate Souls, Dark City...: Jon Voight

Is that "Starry" enough for Ellwood's characterization?  Maybe.  Or is Ellwood hinting about an additional film or two that would pump up the list of guests?

PUGH? MAYBE NOT

Lots of buzz around Florence Pugh this week.  The young actress who is starring in Venice selection Don't Worry Now as well as TFF #49 selection The Wonder is described as "doing limited press" for Venice.  Explanations and conjectures center on her shooting schedule for Dune 2 as well as a controversies swirling around Don't Worry Now involving director Olivia Wilde, actors Shia LaBeouf and Harry Styles and Wilde's ex-husband, actor Jason Sudeikis.

I have assumed that there was a reasonably chance the the young and rising star might break free with her Dune 2 counterpart, Timothee Chalamet, star of Luca Guadagnino's Bones and All (which I expect to be at Telluride) and do a bit of time in the San Juans...but that looks relatively unlikely at the moment.

Pugh currently sits at #23 on IMDb's STARmeter which tracks the current popularity status of people in the biz.  My current STARmeter status is: 1,180,574.  Totally serious about that number.

THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE

For the tenth non-consecutive year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride.  All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".

Report your ratings with any of the following contact methods:

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

Ten (Plus) Bets #10 / Empire of Light Poster and Teaser / Athena Gets a Trailer / Return of Aftersun / Camden Film Fest Announcement Seems to Confirm "Sr." / March on Rome Poster /

TEN (Plus) BETS #10

Toronto has completed announcing its lineup and we're just a week-ish away from the 49th edition of the Telluride Film Festival.  Some adds and slight changes to this next-to-last set of Bets.  I'll have a FINAL TEN (PLUS) BETS in Monday's MTFB post.

By way of re-capping, here's last week's Ten (Plus) Bets:

1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

2) Women Talking/Polley

3) Broker/Kore-eda

4) Holy Spider/Abbasi

5) The Wonder/Lelio

6) Empire of Light/Mendes

7) Armageddon Time/Gray

8) Bardo/Inarritu

9) TAR/Fields

10) Bones and All/Guadagnino

11) Good Night Oppy/White

12) A Compassionate Spy/James

13) Godland/Palmason

14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog

15) Living/Hermanus

Others Possibilities: Close/Dhont, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins,  Athena/Gavras, Aftersun/Wells, Anastasia/McCarthy, Sr./Smith.

And here's this weeks updated Bets:

1) Empire of Light/Mendes

2) Women Talking/Polley

3) The Wonder/Lelio

4) Bardo/Iarritu

5) TAR/Field

6) Broker/Kore-eda

7) Holy Spider/Abbasi

8) Armageddon Time/Gray

9) Bones and All/Guadignino

10) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

11) Godland/Palmason

12) A Compassionate Spy/James

13) Good Night Oppy/White

14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog

15) Sr./Smith

16 The U.S, and the Holocaust/Burns

17) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed/Poitras

18) Close/Dhont

19) Something from Mark Cousins*

20) Aftersun/Wells

Others Possibilities: Living/Hermanus, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins*,  My Name Is Alfred Hitchcock/Cousins*,  March on Rome/Cousins*, Athena/Gavras, Anastasia/McCarthy, The Pupils/Rohrwacher

EMPIRE OF LIGHT POSTER AND TEASER

One of the films that I'm most sure will ply next week at Telluride is Sam Mendes' Empire of Light.  At the moment it's among my top 2-3 films to make sure to catch next week.  Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see an Olivia Colman Tribute that includes the film...though maybe Toby Jones gets a tribute as he appears to be included in two films that will be screen next.  In addition to Empire of Light Jones also appears in The Wonder.

At any rate, Searchlight has dropped a cool teaser for the film:

ATHENA GETS A TRAILER

Romain Gavras'  Athena is a film that I have been including most of the season as an "Other Possibility" mostly due to its distributor: Netflix and as of late, its scheduled first screening at the Venice Film Fest-9:00 am Sept 2.  That's also the same day that TAR and Bones and All are also screening initially.  So...it's possible.

Netflix dropped a full trailer on Wednesday ahead of its Venice premiere (and possible Telluride SHOW).

Here's that trailer from YouTube:

IMDb's description of the film:

"Hours after the tragic death of their youngest brother in unexplained circumstances, three siblings have their lives thrown into chaos."

Irrespective if it does play Telluride is its release date for Netflix on Sept. 23rd.

RETURN OF AFTERSUN

You may have noticed that I have returned Charlotte Wells' Aftersun to the actual list of 20 films I'm expecting at TFF #49.  That's because multiple sources reached out to me yesterday to let me know that the firm handling the PR for the film had sent an email to various press members that the film is screening at Toronto as a Canadian Premiere.  That is at odds with what the film's premiere designation is at the TIFF website as of this morning. It's till listed as a North American Premiere there.

Aftersun is posted for the New York fest with no premiere designation which would normally signal a Telluride appearance...so with that apparent contradiction, I had moved it from the actual "Bets" to the list of "Other Possibilities"

I've thought Aftersun was a likely TFF #49 candidate since it debuted at Cannes last  May.  Its critical reception and its distribution by A24 made me think it was a very likely choice.  Now, it seems, the record is probably set straight and so back to the "Bets" for today.

CAMDEN FILM FEST ANNOUNCEMENT SEEMS TO CONFIRM "SR." FOR TFF #49

Variety reporting selections made for the 18th annual Camden International Film Festival on Monday appear to have confirmed the Telluride world premiere of Chris smith's documentary about Indie film director Robert Downey, Sr.  The film is entitled "Sr."

Here's the last paragraph of the Aug. 22nd post:

"This year’s CIFF highlights include the U.S. premiere of Tamana Ayazi and Marcel Mettelsiefen’s Netflix release “In Her Hands,” which follows one of Afghanistan’s first female mayors during the months leading up to the Taliban takeover the country in 2021; Chris Smith’s “Sr.,” centered on the life and career of Robert Downey Sr. and his relationship to his son, Robert Downey Jr.; and Steve James’ “A Compassionate Spy,” about Manhattan Project physicist, Soviet spy and University of Chicago alum Theodore Hall. Each of the three featured documentaries will have made its world premiere before CIFF, at festivals in Toronto, Telluride and Venice, respectively."

BTW, we also think T-ride is going to screen Steve James' A Compassionate Spy at TFF #49.

MARCH ON ROME POSTER

Director Mark Cousins tweeted a photo of the poster for one of his new films: March on Rome which Cousins suggested is: "The new poster for my film about fascism."  Not to put too fine a point on it.

Cousins has at least 2-3 projects that could make an appearance at TFF including this one as well as The Story of Film: A New Generation and an Alfred Hitchcock film he has been working on.

Cousins has also recently tweeted about making sure he could get his passport updated for travel to America as well as this tweet from yesterday:

"From Monday for 2 weeks I will be on a film journey in several countries, doing lots of things.  

I'll tweet as I go, but mute me if it's a bit much."

This lends continued creedence to my belief that the T-ride regular and TFF member of its Esteemed Council of Advisors will be there next week with something. Maybe two somethings.

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Ten Bets (Plus) #9 / Pale Blue Eye Won't Be Seen / Aftersun...Maybe Not / Herzog Yes...Just Not What We Thought / Living and a Venice Clue / Godland Looks Telluride Bound / Other Thoughts

TEN (PLUS) BETS #9

A wild couple of days with more announced films from New York and Toronto since Monday's post.  As a result, some shakeup in the Ten Bets for this week.  Here's a look at last week's Ten Bets:

1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

2) Women Talking/Polley

3) Broker/Kore-eda

4) Holy Spider/Abbasi

5) The Wonder/Lelio

6) Empire of Light/Mendes

7) Armageddon Time/Gray

8) Bardo/Inarritu

9) TAR/Fields

10) Bones and All/Guadagnino

11) Good Night Oppy/White

12) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper

13) A Compassionate Spy/James

14) Aftersun/Wells

15) Close/Dhont

Others Possibilities: Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins,  Athena/Gavras.

And now for this week:

1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

2) Women Talking/Polley

3) Broker/Kore-eda

4) Holy Spider/Abbasi

5) The Wonder/Lelio

6) Empire of Light/Mendes

7) Armageddon Time/Gray

8) Bardo/Inarritu

9) TAR/Fields

10) Bones and All/Guadagnino

11) Good Night Oppy/White

12) A Compassionate Spy/James

13) Godland/Palmason

14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog

15) Living/Hermanus

Others Possibilities: Close/Dhont, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins,  Athena/Gavras, Aftersun/Wells, Godland/Palmason, Anastasia/McCarthy, Sr./Smith, The Holdovers/Payne

PALE BLUE EYE WON'T BE SEEN

Not in Telluride anyway.  After near certainty that the Scott Cooper film would be in Telluride, Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel reports that's not the case.  From his post from yesterday:

"Cooper’s latest, titled “Pale Blue Eye,” will finally not be going to Telluride...Supposedly, there was a pretty bad test-screening earlier in the year. 

I'm disappointed as Plae Blue Eye would have been a definite watch on my TFF dance card.

AFTERSUN...MAYBE NOT

You'll notice that I have moved Charlotte Wells Aftersun from a spot in the 15 Bets to "Other Possibilities" this week.  That owes to the fact that the film was added this week by the Toronto Fest as a North American Premiere.  I have had a notion that it would be a Telluride film from its reception at Cannes back in May.  That, I thought, was seemingly confirmed when the New York Fest announced it as part of their Main Slate with no premiere designation.

Now, with the TIFF selection and designation, you have one of those classic moments we've all come to know when the status of a film is contradictory between two fests.  What to do?

At this late date I have a hard time believing that Toronto would get this wrong.  Accordingly I moved Aftersun off the Bets list for this week and even really thought that I wouldn't even include it as an "Other Possibility".

HERZOG YES...JUST NOT WHAT WE THOUGHT

Photo via TIFF

Werner Herzog's Theatre of Thought was announced on Wednesday as an International Premiere for Toronto.  The film is so fresh that you can't find it listed on Herzog's IMDb Pro page.  The International Premiere status means that it will have played within its country of origin.  So one can surmise that the film will likely play Telluride (rather than Fantastic Fest which doesn't start until TIFF is over).

Here is the TIFF description for the film:

"Werner Herzog sets his sights on yet another mysterious landscape — the human brain — for clues as to why a hunk of tissue can produce profound thoughts and feelings while considering the philosophical, ethical, and social implications of fast-advancing neural technology."

As a side note, this seeming confirmation that this Herzog doc is playing TFF #49 don't discount the possibility that The Fire Within might also screen at Telluride.

LIVING AND VENICE-A CLUE?

So many chunks of information to sift through this week including the release of the schedule for the Venice Film Fest.  That is often a good indicator of films that will play at Venice first before making the trans-Atlantic flight to Telluride.

To make the leap films generally play the first three to four days of the Venice affair.  This year Venice opens on Aug. 31st.  So what films that we believe are playing Telluride are loaded in that time frame?

8/31- TAR and Living

9/1- Bardo, A Compassionate Spy

9/2 Bones and All, Athena, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

9/3 Argentina 1985

So, we've been pretty sure about Bardo, TAR and Bones and All for awhile.  I'm also pretty confident about A Compassionate Spy.

I think most of you have seen my theory about Living making a stop at Telluride and this early screening time for it fits that theory really well.  

As for Athena...timing works well enough.  Argentina 1985 is problematic with the screening on Day 4 and I'm still leery that All the Beauty is, in fact as advertised by some portions of the Toronto PR, a North American Premiere there and won't be at TFF #49.

Here's the link to the Venice schedule.

GODLAND LOOKS TELLURIDE BOUND

Toronto's announcement yesterday included Hylnur Palmason's Godland as a Canadian Premiere.  The film played Cannes as a part of the Un Certain Regard program where it was generally well regarded by critics.

Godland has played a number of other international film fests including: Sydney, Transylvania and New Horizons.  The Canadian Premiere designation means an almost certain play at TFF #49.  

The IMDb description of the film:

"In the late 19th century, a young Danish priest travels to a remote part of Iceland to build a church and photograph its people. But the deeper he goes into the unforgiving landscape, the more he strays from his purpose, his mission and morality."

OTHER THOUGHTS:

Looks like Sarah McCarthy's short Anastasia could be Telluride bound as it is listed by Toronto as a Canadian Premiere.

NYFF announced a screening of Chris Smith's Sr. a documentary focused on the life of Robert Downey Sr.  NYFF listed without any premiere designation which could mean a TFF #49 play.

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Ten Bets #8 / New York Announces Main Slate / Teaser for Bones and All / Marshall Flores Tracking the Films and Fests

TEN BETS #8

The New York Film Festival's full Main Slate announcement on Tuesday allowed us to interpret information about possible TFF #49 selections but mostly at the margins.  It also posed a couple of mysteries.

That said, here's a review of last week's Ten (Plus) Bets:

1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

2) Women Talking/Polley

3) Broker/Kore-eda

4) Holy Spider/Abbasi

5) The Wonder/Lelio

6) Empire of Light/Mendes

7) Good Night Oppy/White

8) Bardo/Inarritu

9) TAR/Field

10) Bones and All/Guadagnino

11) Armageddon Time/Gray

12) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper

13) A Compassionate Spy/James

14) Close/Dhont

15) Aftersun/Wells

Others Possibilities: Master Gardener/P. Schrader, Showing Up/Reichardt, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren,Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, Blonde/Dominik, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre

And here is the latest Ten (Plus) Bets:

1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

2) Women Talking/Polley

3) Broker/Kore-eda

4) Holy Spider/Abbasi

5) The Wonder/Lelio

6) Empire of Light/Mendes

7) Armageddon Time/Gray

8) Bardo/Inarritu

9) TAR/Fields

10) Bones and All/Guadagnino

11) Good Night Oppy/White

12) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper

13) A Compassionate Spy/James

14) Aftersun/Wells

15) Close/Dhont

Others Possibilities: Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins,  Athena/Gavras

See the next section for New York analysis and its effect or lack thereof.

NEW YORK ANNOUNCES MAIN SLATE

In the run-up to yesterday's announcement NYFF had already announced White Noise, Armageddon Time, Till  and All the Beauty and the Bloodshed as various special presentations.  From those announcements I had gleaned that White Noise, Till and The Inspection were off the list for a Telluride screening,  Cagey wording for the Armageddon Time announcement and lack of a premiere designation for All the Beauty made me think that those films could still be TFF possibilities.

With yesterday's announcement, here's what I think we can say:

Lack of any premiere status makes me believe that Armageddon Time, TAR, One Fine Morning and Aftersun are headed to TFF #49.

Premiere status for Master Gardener (North American premiere) and Showing Up (North American premiere) tell us that both films will NOT be at Telluride.  Other films that I had as borderline Telluride possibilities that will not make the trip to the San Juans: EO, No Bears, R.M.N., Return to Seoul and Stars at Noon.

There were also films with no premiere status that likely will NOT be T-ride players because they played at Sundance: All That Breathes and Descendant.

Mysteries:

1) Laura Poitras' All the Beauty and the Bloodshed was listed in some NYFF's release materials without a premiere designation and in others as a U.S. premiere.  Confusing?  Of course.  My feeling is that the documentary probably IS a U.S. premiere at NYFF and not bound for T-ride.  We'll see.

2) Joanna Hogg's The Eternal Daughter has no premiere status which lead me to think for awhile on Tuesday that it could be at T-ride.  Then a sharp-eyed  MTFB reader reminded me that the film has a North American premiere status for Toronto.  Now, it's my belief that Eternal Daughter will probably play Fantastic Fest and that would account for its lack of premiere status in the NYFF announcement.

3) Park Chan-wook's Decision to Leave has no NYFF premiere status either.  Perhaps it is also headed to Fantastic Fest?  I tend to believe the Toronto North American premiere status and thus no Telluride.

4) Ruben Ostlund's Cannes Palme d'Or winner Triangle of Sadness also has no NYFF premiere status but like Decision to Leave is listed by Toronto as a North American premiere. Like Decision to Leave, I suspect that TIFF's designation is correct and so Triangle of Sadness isn't headed to T-ride.

5) She Said was not announced as a part of NYFF's "Main Slate".  Back on August 1st I reported that She Said was going to land at NYFF and as a World Premiere.  That came from reporting from Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel.  

Now, NYFF likely has some other films to add but it seems more than weird that She Said wasn't a part of the Main Slate of films announced Tuesday.

So, it seems to me that She Said may be more uncertain as a NYFF WP than previously thought. 

On the other hand...can you say NYFF "secret screening"?

TEASER FOR BONES AND ALL

The peeps behind Luca Guadagnino's Bones and All dropped a teaser late yesterday afternoon.  I'm expecting the film to SHOW at TFF #49 based upon an interview with Venice Film Fest head Alberto Barbera in which he claimed that the film would be at Telluride.

Here's the teaser from YouTube:

MARSHALL FLORES TRACKING THE FILMS AND FESTS

Awards Daily's Marshall Flores has been tracking all of the news regarding fall film fests.  That chart is here:

Films that have landed at at least three of the fests (*Telluride, Cannes, Venice, Toronto and New York) are:

Armageddon Time*

Broker*

Decision to Leave

The Eternal Daughter

Holy Spider*

One Fine Morning*

Saint Omer

Films on the list that "technically" could still be in play for Telluride:

Blonde (though the word continues to be it'll be at Venice only)

Close

Don't Worry Darling (noop)

Golda (with Helen Mirren...late word from Ruimy last night is it"ll be out in 2023)

She Said (though rumored to WP at NYFF...no announcement yet...secret screening?)

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Ten (Plus) Bets #7 / No GDT at TFF / No White Noise Either / But Probably a Pale Blue Eye / Could Living Play Telluride? / Teaser for Argentina, 1985 n Bets #8

TEN (PLUS) BETS #7 

Here's your latest edition of MTFB's Ten Bets for the TFF #49 lineup.  There is a good deal of movement after last week's announcement of Galas and Special Presentations from the Toronto International Film Festival.  Also making a difference was reporting from Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel and others.

As a recap, here are the Ten Bets and Other Possibilities from last week:

1) Bardo/Inarritu

2) TAR/Fields

3) Bones and All/Guadagnino

4) Armageddon Time/Gray

5) Close/Dhont

6) Aftersun/Wells

7) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

8) The Son/Zeller

9) She Said/M. Schrader

10) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper

Others Possibilities: Master Gardener/P. Schrader, Women Talking/Polley, Broker/Kore-eda, Showing Up/Reichardt, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, Holy Spider/Abbasi,  White Noise/Baumbach, The Forger/Peren,Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, The Wonder/Lelio, Blonde/Dominik, The Whale/Aronofsky, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Living/Hermanus

And here are the new and significantly altered Ten (Plus) Bets:

1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

2) Women Talking/Polley

3) Broker/Kore-eda

4) Holy Spider/Abbasi

5) The Wonder/Lelio

6) Empire of Light/Mendes

7) Good Night Oppy/White

8) Bardo/Inarritu

9) TAR/Fields

10) Bones and All/Guadagnino

11) Armageddon Time/Gray

12) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper

13) A Compassionate Spy/James

14) Close/Dhont

15) Aftersun/Wells

Others Possibilities: Master Gardener/P. Schrader, Showing Up/Reichardt, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren,Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, Blonde/Dominik, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre

The biggest blows to last week's Ten Bets came with the likelihood that She Said will World Premiere at the New York Film Festival and that The Son will will World Premiere at Toronto.

We expect TIFF to announce its Midnight Madness program tomorrow which will probably not have any effect regarding what we can deduce about TFF #49.

NO GDT AT TFF

Admittedly I've thought all summer that the chances pf Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio [laying TFF #49 were slim but that chances seem to have been laid to rest.  Jordan Ruimy at World of reel reports that the film will not be finished until sometime in October at the earliest.

Here's the link to Ruimy's reporting.

NO WHITE NOISE EITHER

The New York Film Festival announced on Tuesday that Noah Baumbach's White Noise will open their fest on Sept. 30th and NYFF has labeled the film a North American premiere.  Assuming that characterization is accurate and Telluride maintains its unspoken policy of features being a first time North American screening, that means White Noise is off the speculation list for TFF #49.

I had been hearing some buzz that this could be true but the scheduling of White Noise as the opener for Venice kept me thinking that there was a great chance that the film would play in Italy and then slide across the Atlantic to land in the San Juans.  Looks like that's not happening.

BUT PROBABLY A PALE BLUE EYE

I've had Scott Cooper's The Pale Blue Eye on the TFF #49 watch list for a long time and now there's scuttlebutt that the Christian Bale led film, is in fact, likely screening for the first time in Telluride.  World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy snuck the increased chance that this will be true into a post called "What's Left-Part Deux".  

This is what Ruimy writes: 

"I’m getting more Telluride intel, this one concerning Scott Cooper’s “Pale Blue Eye” which will be having its world premiere over there." 

Here's the IMDb description of the film:

"At West Point Academy in 1830, the calm of an October evening is shattered by the discovery of a young cadet's body swinging from a rope just off the parade grounds. An apparent suicide is not unheard of in a harsh regimen like West Point's, but the next morning, an even greater horror comes to light. Someone has stolen into the room where the body lay and removed the heart."

The film "Follows a veteran detective who investigates the murders, helped by a detail-oriented young cadet who will later become a world famous author, Edgar Allan Poe."

Previous Cooper collaborator Christian Bale (Hostiles, Out of the Furnace) as the detective and Henry Melling (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs) as Poe join to tell this tale.

For me, it's a "most anticipated".  Feeling really good that it's a TFF #49 selection.

The entire Ruimy post is linked here.

COULD LIVING PLAY TELLURIDE?

Living starring Bill Nighy made a splash at Sundance earlier this year with a number of mentions of Nighy as a possible Oscar contender for Best Actor.  Clayton Davis at Variety currently has Nighy at the #3 spot for a nomination.

The case against a Telluride play is, of course, the Sundance premiere back in January.  Also, Venice head Alberto Barbera is on record saying that there will less of an overlap between his fest and Telluride and Living IS a Venice selection.  But...

The case for a TFF #49 play includes the fact that it is under the wing of Sony Pictures Classics (a very tight Telluride connection).  It's inclusion in the Venice out-of-competition lineup, despite having already bowed at Sundance-very unusual for Venice to schedule a non-World Premiere.  

And, of late, Telluride has scheduled a couple of Sundance films that were tied to tributes.  In 2016 T-ride invited Manchester-by-the-Sea, a film distributed by Amazon/Roadside Attractions -decent Telluride presence for each- and featured Casey Affleck as a tribute recipient.  In 2018 TFF did the same with Adam Driver featuring both Marriage Story (from Netflix-a very good T-ride relationship) and The Report(from Amazon), which had premiered at Sundance.

So, could Bill Nighy be up for a Tribute and a screening of Living?  Nighy also has a film called A Beautiful Game from Netflix that has yet to be screened anywhere and is listed by IMDb as having been in post-production since January.

So it's not outside the realm of possibility.

TEASER FOR ARGENTINA, 1985

Argentina 1985 is a Venice Golden Lion competition choice and seems like a sleeper for a spot at Telluride.  That it was partially produced by Amazon Studios suggests the possibility that it could make the lineup when it is unveiled on Sept. 1st.

IMDb's description intrigues:

"A team of lawyers take on the heads of Argentina's bloody military dictatorship during the 1980s in a battle against odds and a race against time."

The first teaser for the film was released last week and here it is via YouTube:

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She Won't Be Saying Anything at Telluride / What We Think We Know / Blonde's New Trailer / New Doc: A Compassionate Spy Might Be at TFF #49

SHE WON'T BE SAYING ANYTHING AT TELLURIDE

Some of the films I predict for Telluride come from looking at the history of the fest and its relationship with directors, producers and distributors.

Some come from intell that comes my way or that I scratch up from my own digging here and there.

Some come from sources-folks who will drop me a line .

And some are just intuition.  Maria Schrader's She Said has been one of those intuition picks for me all summer.  I've had it bouncing in and out of the Ten Bets each week or in the list of "Other Possibilities" all summer long.  It appeared in the first Ten Bets for this year at the #10 spot.  

But now, Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel says nope.  No She Said at Telluride and his reporting is pretty definitive.

Ruimy's's post from Friday followed up on a note from an Anne Thompson Indiewire post that had included this:

"Another film expected to drive buzz at the NYFF is “She Said” (November 18, Universal), the true journalistic saga behind two New York Times reporters’ quest to nail sexual predator Harvey Weinstein, which launched the #MeToo movement and propelled the movie mogul into prison." 

Ruimy followed that hint up and reported that he had confirmed that She Said will World Premiere at NYFF thereby indicating that the film will not me making an appearance at TFF #49.

I hate to hear that as I was really looking forward to She Said on Labor Day weekend.

WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW

Between TIFF premiere status descriptions and the Alberto Barbera Variety interview last week most of those of us who keep track of such things think that we can confidently say that these films will screen as part of The SHOW in five weeks:

Bardo/Inarritu

Bones and All/Guadagnino

Broker/Kore-eda

Empire of Light/Mendes

Good Night Oppy/White

Holy Spider/Abbasi

One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

TAR/Fields

The Wonder/Lelio

Women Talking/Polley

Major titles that seem certain not to be at Telluride:

The Banshees of Insherin

The Fabelmans

The Good Nurse

She Said

The Son

Triangle of Sadness

Major titles still up in the air for Telluride:

Armageddon Time

Blonde 

Master Gardener

The Pale Blue Eye

Showing Up

White Noise

I'll likely expand the "Ten Bets" list on Thursday to 15 Bets.

BLONDE'S NEW TRAILER AND POSTER

New poster for Andrew Dominik's Blonde

Yea, I'll admit it.  My insistence on keeping Blonde (and Babylon) in the conversation for a possible Telluride play is almost certainly wishful thinking.  Both films are very unlikely to be in the San Juans five weeks from now.  Blonde and Babylon are and have been my most anticipated films for the year for months.  Nevertheless, a guy can dream.

That said, if you missed the release from Netflix of the new trailer for Andrew Dominik's Blonde from late last week.  Here it is:

NEW DOC: A COMPASSIONATE SPY MIGHT BE AT TFF #49

(Photo via The Chicago Tribune)

The Chicago Tribune reporting on the selection of  Steve James (Hoop Dreams, Prefontaine) A Compassionate Spy to an Out of Competition slot at the Venice Film Festival implies the possibility/probability of a play at Telluride.

The Tribune story was picked up and re-published by the Finger Lakes Times Saturday and within that story are a couple of tantalizing statements:

"Though the filmmaker could not confirm the near-future for his latest project, many world premieres start at Venice and then go straight to a U.S. premiere at the Telluride Film Festival in Colorado a few days later."

The story also suggests that the documentary was submitted to Telluride:

"James wrapped up principal photography in April, and his producers at Participant Media suggested submitting the film for Venice (Aug. 31-Sept. 10) and Telluride (Sept. 2-5)."

A Compassionate Spy is "about the Manhattan Project physicist, Soviet spy and University of Chicago alum Theodore Hall...[the film] deals with the lives of Ted and Joan Hall — their marriage, their longtime evasion of the FBI and the information about Hall’s atomic espionage activities that came to light four years before Hall died in Cambridge, England, in 1999."

James was an Oscar nominee for Hoop Dreams in 1995 and Abacus: Small Enough to Jail in 2018.

Is it a certainty?  No, but put it on your radar.

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