Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
I am updating predictions in the categories of Best Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor. These were last predicted on Nov. 10th. Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses. Performances from TFF #49 are in Bold.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Jesse Buckley/Women Talking (1)
2) Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)
3) Clare Foy/Women Talking (3)
4) Carey Mulligan/She Said (5)
5) Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere All at Once (New)
Out: Nina Hoss/TAR and Dolly DeLeon/Triangle of Sadness
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Brendan Gleeson/The Banshees of Inisherin (1)
2) Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)
3) Judd Hirsch/The Fabelmans (3)
4) Paul Dano/The Fabelmans (5)
5) Ben Whishaw/Women Talking (4)
6) Barry Keoghan/The Banshees of Inisherin (6)
7) Eddie Redmayne/The Good Nurse (New)
Out: Anthony Hopkins/Armageddon Time
INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARD NOMINEES ANNOUNCED
Film Independent announced the nominees for the 29th Independent Spirit Awards on Tuesday. This year's ceremony is currently scheduled for Mar. 4, 2023. Telluride Films nabbed 20 nominations overall with Sarah Polley's Women Talking named the winner of the Robert Altman Award which goes to the director, casting directors and the ensemble cast.
Nominations Breakdown:
TAR (7): Best Feature, Direction (Field), Lead Performance (Blanchett), Supporting Performance (Hoss), Screenplay, Cinematography and Editing.
Aftersun (5): Best First Feature, Lead Performance (Mescal), Breakthrough Performance (Corio), Cinematography and Editing.
Women Talking (3): Best Feature, Direction and Screenplay plus the above mentioned Robert Altman Award.
Bones and All (3): Best Feature, Lead Performance (Russell), Supporting Performance (Rylance).
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (1): Best Documentary
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (1): Best Editing. Marcel was a selection of TFF #48.
Everything, Everywhere All at Once lead the pack with a total of 8 nominations including Best Feature. I sort of regard it as Telluride-adjacent because of the special screening of Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Michelle Yeoh's presence at TFF #49.
MTFB OSCAR TAKE: UPDATING BEST PICTURE AND DIRECTION
In today's post I am updating Oscar predictions for Best Picture and Best Direction which were last posted on Nov. 3rd. TFF #49 films are in Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) The Fabelmans (1)
2) The Banshees of Inisherin (2)
3) Women Talking (3)
4) Top Gun: Maverick (6)
5) Everything Everywhere All at Once (4)
6) TAR (5)
7) Elvis (10)
8) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (New)
9) Glass Onion (7)
10) Triangle of Sadness (11)
11) She Said (9)
12) Babylon (8)
Out: Empire of Light
Ought to think about: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Living and Armageddon Time
Comment: Wildly divergent responses to Damien Chazelle's Babylon from screenings this week in Los Angeles and New York have lead me to drop its prospects for a Best Picture nomination significantly. The film is under an embargo for full reviews but social media reaction was divisive to say the least.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans (1)
2) Sarah Polley/Women Talking (2)
3) Martin McDonagh/The Banshees of Inisherin (3)
4) Todd Field/TAR (4)
5) The Daniels/EEAAO (5)
6) Damien Chazelle/Babylon (6)
7) Rueben Ostlund/Triangle of Sadness (7)
TRAILERS AND TEASERS
Official Trailer for Empire of Light via YouTube:
Official trailer for If These Walls Could Sing from YouTube:
CRITICS CHOICE DOC AWARDS AND TFF #49
The Critics Choice Awards for Documentary film making were named last Sunday night and TFF #49 entrant Good Night Oppy dominated the evening.
Oppy won for Best Doc (Gold award), Direction, Best Science/Nature Doc, Score and Narration.
Navalny, which was not included in the TFF #49 program but reportedly did screen in Elk Park prior to the Fest's officially opening received the Bronze award for Doc Feature as well as Best Political Doc.
And Citizen Ashe which screened at TFF #48 was named Best Sports Doc.
I am updating predictions in the categories of Best Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor. These were last predicted on Oct. 13th. Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses. Performances from TFF #49 are in Bold.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Jesse Buckley/Women Talking (1)
2) Clare Foy/Women Talking (2)
3) Hong Chau/The Whale (3)
4) Carey Mulligan/She Said (New)
5) Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin (4)
6) Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere All at Once (6)
7) Janelle Monae/Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (7)
Out: Nina Hoss/TAR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Brendan Gleeson/The Banshees of Inisherin (1)
2) Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)
3) Judd Hirsch/The Fabelmans (3)
4) Ben Whishaw/Women Talking (4)
5) Paul Dano/The Fabelmans (5)
6) Eddie Redmayne/The Good Nurse (7)
7) Anthony Hopkins/Armageddon Time (New)
Out: Jeremy Strong/Armageddon Time
GOTHAM AWARDSNOMINATIONSAND TFF #49
The Gotham Awards announced their nominations for the best in independent film. TFF #49 title TAR scared five nominations to lead all films.
Here's the breakdown of Telluride entrants who were nominated on Tuesday:
TAR (5): Best Feature, Lead Performance (Blanchett), Supporting Performance (Hoss), Supporting Performance (Merchant), Screenplay
Aftersun (4): Best Feature, Breakthrough Director (Wells), Lead Performance (Mescal) Breakthrough Performer (Corio)
Women Talking (3); Best Supporting Performance (Buckley), Supporting Performance (Whishaw), Screenplay
Bones and All (2): Best Supporting Performance (Russell), Supporting Performance (Rylance)
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (1): Best Documentary
Armageddon Time (1): Best Screenplay
In total, TFF #49 films accounted for 16 Gotham nominations for 2022.
Last Monday I posted MTFB's first Oscar predictions for Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress and Supporting Actor. Today it's time for predictions for Best Adapted and Original Screenplays. Moving forward for the next few weeks I'll continue to update predictions in the eight "above the line" categories and as we move deeper into Oscar season, I'll expand to include all of the other categories as well. For now, though, here are my first predictions in the Screenplay categories. TFF #49 films are in Bold.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Women Talking
2) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
3) The Whale
4) She Said
5) White Noise
6) Living
7) The Son
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Everything Everywhere All at Once
2) The Banshees of Inisherin
3) The Fabelmans
4) TAR
5) Babylon
6) Triangle of Sadness
7) Armageddon Time
ERIK ANDERSON'S OSCAR PREDIX AND TFF #49
For the past couple of posts I have begun tracking where major Oscar pundits have TFF #49 films in their predictions. Previous posts have looked at predictions from Variety's Clayton Davis and The Hollywood Reporters' Scott Feinberg. I'll continue this line of "reportage" through the season. Today I'm turning to Erik Anderson and his predictions for his site Awards Watch.
As of this morning's post Anderson has late September predictions for Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Actor, Supporting Acting and the Screenplays. Hers' what he has among TFF #49 films predicted for Oscar nominations in those categories:
Women Talking: Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress/Foy, Supporting Actress/Buckley, Supporting Actor/Whishaw and Adapted Screenplay
Bardo: Best Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay
Mexico officially announced this week that its entrant for International Feature Oscar glory is Alejandro G. Inarritu's Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths. The film had a rough go with critics through both and Venice and Telluride BUT with a sharp new trailer last week and news that Inarritu had shaved more than 20 minutes of runtime and now this announcement, the film might be picking up a little steam.
The film is set for release on Oct. 27th and to drop on Netflix on Dec. 16th.
NEW TRAILER FOR BONES AND ALL
MGM and United Artists have released a new trailer for Luca Guadagnino's Bones and All. That dropped on Thursday last week. Here it is from YouTube:
Bones and All is set for release on Nov. 23rd.
FYC: MARCEL THE SHELL WITH SHOES ON
The one man campaign for TFF 48's Marcel the Shell with Shoes On begins today here at MTFB.
FYC: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On:
BEST PICTURE
BEST DIRECTION
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Come on folks...it was one of the best reviewed films released this year:
"Metacritic Must See" 81
Certified Fresh at rotten Tomatoes with 99% on the Tomato Meter.
A24 doesn't need my help but I'm giving it nevertheless!
Here's my annual final step of computation that has become an MTFB tradition. It's The Composite Telluride ratings in which I add the average from The People and The Professionals to provide one more glimpse of how The SHOW's films were perceived.
To begin, here's the history of The Composite Telluride with the film's combined rating in parentheses and its position on each of the two lists in brackets.
2012
1) Argo (9.25) [2/2]
2) Stories We Tell (9.10) [3/1]
3) The Attack (8.70) [5/3]
4) Central Park Five (8.450 [1/13]
5) The Sapphires (8.36) [4/8]
6) Frances Ha (8.27) [5/9]
7) Amour (7.67) [10/6]
8) Rust and Bone (7.65) [7/16]
9) Baraka (7.50) [10/10]
10) The Iceman 7.41 [8/17]
11) No (6.61) [12/21]
12) The Gatekeepers (6.58) [14/18]
13) Hyde Park on Hudson (6.33) [14/20]
14) At Any Price (5.83) [9/24]
15) Everyday (4.88) [15/25]
2013
1) 12 Years a Slave (9.25) [1/2]
2) Tim's Vermeer (8.97) [4/1]
3) Gravity (8.75) [3/3]
4) Nebraska (8.38) [5/6]
5) All is Lost (8.26) [6/7]
6) Inside Llewyn Davis (8.25) [7/5]
7) Blue is the Warmest Color (8.15) [2/11]
8) The Past (7.71) [9/10]
9) The Lunchbox (7.55) [13/4]
10) The Wind Rises (7.1) [18/8]
11) Labor Day (7.0) [10/14]
11) (tie) Prisoners (7.0) [12/13]
13) Tracks (6.84) [16/12]
14) Palo Alto (6.4) [16/17]
15) The Invisible Woman (6.19) [20/18]
16) The Unknown Known (5.73) [15/20]
17) Under the Skin (5.1) [18/21]
2014
1) Birdman (9.18) [2/1]
2) Foxcatcher (8.83) [4/2]
3) The Imitation Game (8.79) [1/7]
4) Wild Tales (8.43) [3/4]
5) '71 (8.15) [6/3]
6) Mommy (7.42) [8/8]
7) Red Army (7.30) [7/11]
8) Two Days, One Night (7.21) [13/9]
9) Mr. Turner (7.10) [14/6]
10) Wild (6.71) [8/13]
11) Rosewater (6.52) [12/14]
12) The Homesman (6.38) [16/11]
13) Madame Bovary (6.18) [15/12]
2015
1) Spotlight (8.86) [2/3]
2) Son of Saul (8.74) [5/1]
3) Beasts of No Nation (8.62) [3/5]
4) Steve Jobs (8.17) [10/4]
5) Carol (8.13) [8/6]
6) Black Mass (7.98) [7/9]
7) Room (7.97) [1/11]
8) 45 Years (7.84) [11/7]
9) Anomalisa (7.78) [14/2]
10) Suffragette (7.07) [12/12]
11) He Named Me Malala (6.22) [13/13]
2016
1) Moonlight (9.19) [1/1]
2) La La Land (8.91) [2/2]
3) Manchester by the Sea (8.13) [5/4]
4) Arrival (8.01) [6/7]
5) Maudie (7.89) [3/9]
6) Sully (7.68) [10/6]
7) Toni Erdmann (7.65) [9/8]
8) Things to Come (7.25) [19/3]
9) Una (6.85) [15/10]
10) California Typewriter (6.78)[13/11]
10) Into the Inferno (6.78) [21/5]
12) Wakefield (6.26) [12/14]
13) Bleed for This (6.12) [14/13]
14) Norman (5.97) [16/15]
2017
1) The Shape of Water (8.72) [2/1]
2) Lady Bird (8.58) [1/5]
3) Faces Places (7.96) [5/2]
4) Darkest Hour (7.90) [3/8]
5) Hostiles (7.78) [4/9]
6) The Rider (7.63) [10/2]
7) Battle of the Sexes (7.62) [6/7]
8) First Reformed (7.32) [13/6]
9) Lean on Pete (7.16) [7/12]
10) First They Killed My Father (7.05) [15/10]
11) Loving Vincent (7.00) [12/11]
12) Wonderstruck (6.6) [10/13]
13) Downsizing (6.17) [16/14)]
14) Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (6.16) [8/15]
2018
1) Roma (9.20) [1/1]
2) First Man (8.51) [2/2]
3) Free Solo (8.33) [5/3]
4) Cold War (8.16) [6/3]
5) Can You Ever Forgive Me? (7.91) [8/5]
6) The Favourite (7.66) [9/6]
7) Boy Erased (7.43) [4/10]
8) White Boy Rick (6.94) [7/11]
9) The Front Runner (6.74) [10/13]
10) Destroyer (6.69) [12/9]
11) Border (6.57) [16/8]
12) The Old Man and the Gun (6.56) [14/10]
2019
1) Parasite (9.11) [2/1]
2) The Two Popes (8.93) [1/2]
3) Marriage Story (8.54) [4/3]
4) Ford v. Ferrari (8.46) [3/7]
5) A Hidden Life (8.01) [5/5]
6) Waves (7.90) [12/4]
7) Pain and Glory (7.63) [5/9]
8) The Report (7.53) [9/8]
9) Motherless Brooklyn (7.22) [10/11]
10) Uncut Gems (7.00) [14/10]
11) Judy (6.93) [7/13]
12) The Aeronauts (6.75) [8/14]
13) The Climb (6.57) [15/12]
2021:
1) The Power of the Dog (8.95) [2/1]
2) Belfast (8.42) [3/4]
3) The Rescue (8.13) [6/2]
4) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (8.01) [1/10]
5) King Richard (7.98) [7/5]
6) Spencer (7.77) [4/12]
7) Red Rocket (7.63) [5/15]
8) C'mon C'mon (7.58) [9/6)
9) Cyrano (7.08) [11/8]
10) The Lost Daughter (6.92) [10/14]
11) The French Dispatch (5.55) [12/17]
12) Encounter (5.14) [13/18]
The current all time top ten composite scores:
1) 12 Years a Slave (9.25) 2013 Tie (Won Best Picture)
1) Argo (9.25) 2012 Tie (Won Best Picture)
3) Roma (9.20) 2018 (Won Best Foreign Language Film)
4) Moonlight (9.19) 2016 (Won Best Picture)
5) Birdman (9.18) 2014 (Won Best Picture)
6) Parasite (9.11) 2019 (Won Best Picture)
7) Stories We Tell (9.10) 2012
8) Tim's Vermeer (8.97) 2013
9) The Two Popes (8.93) 2019
10) La La Land (8.91) 2016 (Won Best Director)
Soooo...Here are your results of The Composite Telluride for 2022. Ten films made both The Peoples Telluride list and The Professionals Telluride list. The respective rankings for each film are included to the right in [brackets] with the Pro's rating on the left and the People's on the right:
1) TAR 8.13 [1-2]
2) Women Talking 8.09 [2-1]
3) The Wonder 7.52 [5-4]
4) One Fine Morning 7.50 [6-4]
5) Armageddon Time 7.35 [3-9]
6) Aftersun 7.26 [7-8]
7) Bones and All 7.25 [8-6]
8) Empire of Light 7.11 [4-12]
9) Lady Chatterley's Lover 6.77 [9-13]
10) Living 6.75 [10-7]
Big disconnects between the Pros and the People were Armageddon Time and Empire of Light which were significantly favored by the Pros over where the People rated them and Lady Chatterley's Lover and Living which had an substantial lead in the People's poll compared to where the Pros had them.
If you're talking the Best Picture Oscar, ending up in the top spot for The Composite Telluride is a good place to be. Since I started it, The Composite Telluride has pointed to the Best Picture winners in seven out of nine years missing for 2019 because Green Book won and last year in which CODA won.
That said, I find it unlikely that TAR wins Best Picture this year. To my mind, the TFF #49 film with the most potential for winning BP is Sarah Polley's Women Talking and even that seems, at this point, a long shot. I'll have my first stab at making Oscar predictions for Picture, Directing and Acting categories up on MTFB in Monday's post.
After TFF #49 The Composite All Time Top Ten did not change and remains as follows:
1) 12 Years a Slave (9.25) 2013 Tie (Won Best Picture)
1) Argo (9.25) 2012 Tie (Won Best Picture)
3) Roma (9.20) 2018 (Won Best Foreign Language Film)
4) Moonlight (9.19) 2016 (Won Best Picture)
5) Birdman (9.18) 2014 (Won Best Picture)
6) Parasite (9.11) 2019 (Won Best Picture)
7) Stories We Tell (9.10) 2012
8) Tim's Vermeer (8.97) 2013
9) The Power of the Dog (8.95) 2021 (Nominated Best Picture)
10) The Two Popes (8.93) 2019
INDIEWIRE'S BEST OF THE FESTS
The crew at Indiewire put together a list of what they evaluate as the best films to have played the triumvirate of film fests just concluded (Telluride, Venice and Toronto). It was posted last Monday. TFF #49 films that made the list of 15 included
Variety also posted a list of the 17 films that their staff have chosen as the best of the three fests. The list includes three films that played at Telluride: TAR, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed and Women Talking.
Similar to the above post from Indiewire, Metacritic posted an article on Sunday that included their collective critical rating for many films that have played Telluride, Venice and/or Toronto. I took the liberty of adding to their list three films that played in Cannes in May that were also programmed by Telluride a few weeks back.
Here's where the TFF #49 films landed according to Metacrtic:
TAR-92
Aftersun-91
Icarus: The Aftermath-89
All the Beauty and the Bloodhsed-88
Close-83
Women Talking-80
Squaring the Circle-77
Bones and All-76
A Compassionate Spy-75
Armageddon Time-74
The Wonder-72
Lady Chatterley's Lover 67
Theater of Thought-64
Good Night Oppy-63
Empire of Light-59
Bardo-51
TAR leads all films listed with its 92. See the rest of what Metacritic has included from the other two fests that did not play at TFF #49 including The Fabelmans, The Son, The Whale and Blonde linked here.
THEATER OF THOUGHT TRAILER
We found out earlier this week that a trailer has been released for Werner Herzog's latest documentary. The film is described at IMDB as follows:
"Werner Herzog sets his sights on yet another mysterious landscape - the human brain - for clues as to why a hunk of tissue can produce profound thoughts and feelings while considering the philosophical, ethical, and social implications of fast-advancing neural technology."
Two weeks after the 49th Telluride Film Festival, here are the results from this year's People's ratings of the films that played there.
I asked for readers of MTFB to rate the films they saw over Labor Day weekend at TFF #49 on a 1-5 scale and submit that information to me. I then complied the responses (nearly 50 this year) and averaged them all to arrive at each film's ratings. To make the cut, only films that received at least a third of the total number of respondents were included to insure the sampling size was sufficient. 13 films qualified for listing. You'll see the results below after a brief trip down The People's Telluride memory lane.
The first People's Telluride was posted on Sept. 10, 2012. The top ten films from that year's fest from the populist perspective were:
1) Stories We Tell- 4.80
2) Argo- 4.75
3) The Attack- 4.70
4) The Act of Killing-4.41
5) Wadjda-4.2
6) Amour 4.17
7) Barbara- 4.17
8) The Sapphires-4.11
9) Frances Ha-4.07
10) (Tie)The Hunt and Baraka - 4.00
In subsequent years the top ten were:
2013:
1) Tim's Vermeer (4.67)
2) 12 Years a Slave (4.55)
3) Gravity (4.40)
4) The Lunchbox (4.25)
5) Inside Llewyn Davis (4.15)
6) Nebraska (4.08)
7) All is Lost (4.06)
8) The Wind Rises (4.0)
9) Ida (4.0)
10) The Past (3.81)
2014:
1) The Imitation Game (4.73)
2) Birdman (4.46)
3) Wild Tales (4.23)
4) Foxcatcher (4.20)
5) Merchants of Doubt (4.04)
6) '71 (3.90)
7) Red Army (3.63)
8) Wild (Tie 3.50)
8) Escobar: Paradise Lost (Tie 3.50)
8) Mommy (Tie 3.50)
2015:
1) Room (4.47)
2) Spotlight (4.45)
3) Beasts of No Nation (4.35)
4) Ixcanul (4.31)
5) Son of Saul (4.30)
6) Marguerite (4.23)
7) Black Mass (4.13)
8) Carol (4.02)
9) Rams (3.98)
10) Steve Jobs (3.86)
2016:
1) Moonlight (4.37)
2) La La Land (4.33)
3) Maudie (4.29)
4) The Eagle Huntress (4.21)
5) Manchester by the Sea (4.18)
6) Arrival (4.13)
7) Bright Lights (3.90)
8) Frantz (3.89)
9) Toni Erdmann (3.80)
10) Sully (3.79)
2017:
1) Lady Bird (4.38)
2) The Shape of Water (4.22)
3) Darkest Hour (4.04)
4) Hostiles (3.99)
5) Faces Places (3.71)
6) Battle of the Sexes (3.68)
7) Lean on Pete (3.66)
8) Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (3.57)
9) The Other Side of Hope (3.45)
10) Wonderstruck (3.43)
2018
1) Roma (4.47)
2) First Man (4.34)
3) Shoplifters (4.29)
4) Boy Erased (4.23)
5) Free Solo (4.19)
6) Cold War (4.02)
7) White Boy Rick (3.88)
8) Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3.81)
9) The Favourite (3.76)
10) The Front Runner (3.69)
2019:
1) The Two Popes (4.51)
2) Parasite (4.36)
3) Ford v. Ferrari (4.35)
4) Marriage Story (4.14)
5) Pain and Glory (3.81-Tie)
5) A Hidden Life (3.81-Tie)
7) Judy (3.80)
8) The Aeronauts (3.67)
9) The Report (3.66)
10) Motherless Brooklyn (3.64)
11) Lyrebird (3.62)
12) Waves (3.61)
13) Inside Bill's Brain (3.39)
14) Uncut Gems (3.22)
15) The Climb (3.07)
16) First Cow (3.02)
No People's poll in 2020.
2021:
1) The Power of the Dog (4.63)
2) The Rescue (4.20)
3) Julia (4.18)
4) Belfast (4.12)
5) King Richard (4.06)
6) C'mon C'mon (3.93)
7) The Hand of God (3.83)
8) Cyrano (3,62)
9) A Hero (3.60)
10) Marcel the Shell (3.57)
11) The Duke (3.53)
12) Spencer-tie- (3.50)
12) The Electrical Life of Louis Wain-tie- (3.50)
14) The Lost Daughter (3.44)
15) Red Rocket (3.41)
16) Petite Maman (3.25)
17) The French Dispatch (2.50)
18) Encounter (2.43)
AND NOW...THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE FOR 2022:
1) Women Talking 4.22
2) TAR 4.20
3) Sr. 3.98
4) The Wonder 3.86-(TIE)
4) One Fine Morning 3.86 (TIE) 6) Bones and All 3.77
7) Living 3.70
8) Aftersun 3.63
9) Armageddon Time 3.62
10) Broker 3.57
11) Godland 3.50
12) Empire of Light 3.43
13) Lady Chatterley's Lover 3.31
The most watched films were: TAR, Women Talking and Empire of Light, all of which were seen and rated by 85% of all respondents to the poll. Other films that were viewed by over half the respondents were:
Bones and All 72%
Armageddon Time 68%
The Wonder 57%
Living and Broker 55%
The People's poll included three films that were not in The Professional's poll: Sr., Broker and Godland. Interestingly, the film I heard the most positive buzz about all weekend was Ryan White's Good Night Oppy. Neither The People or the Pros had enough views for the film to qualify in either poll.
Also...here are the Best Picture Oscar nominees from Telluride that have landed on the Peoples list for each year since it was started in 2012:
2012: Argo-4.75 (Winner) #2, Amour-4.17 #6
2013: 12 Years a Slave-4.55 (Winner) #2, Gravity-4.40 #3, Nebraska-4.08 #6
2014: Birdman-4.46 (Winner) #2, The Imitation Game-4.73 #1
2015: Spotlight-4.45 (Winner) #2, Room-4.47 #1
2016: Moonlight-4.37 (Winner) #1, La La Land 4.33 #2, Manchester by the Sea-4.18 #5, Arrival-4.13 #6
2017: The Shape of Water-4.22 #2 (Winner), Lady Bird-4.38 #1, Darkest Hour-4.04 #3
2018: Roma-4.47, The Favourite-3.76 #9
2019: Parasite- 4.36 (Winner) #2, Ford v. Ferrari 4.35 #3, Marriage Story 4.14 #4
2021: The Power of the Dog- 4.63, Belfast- 4.12, King Richard 4.06
The all time People's Top Ten:
1) Stories We Tell (4.80) (12)
2) Argo (4.75) (12)-Won Best Picture
3) The Imitation Game (4.73) (14) Nominated Best Picture
4) The Attack (4.70) (12)
5) Tim's Vermeer (4.67) (13)
6) The Power of the Dog (4.63) (21) Nominated Best Picture
7) 12 Years a Slave (4.55) (13) Won Best Picture
8) The Two Popes (4.51) (19)
9) Roma (4.47) (15) TIE Nominated Best Picture
9) Room (4.47) (18) TIE Nominated Best Picture
The Composite Telluride will go up on Monday!
THE FABELMANS WINS TORONTO
Steven Spielberg's semi-autobiographical film The Fabelman's was named the winner of the Toronto International Film Festival's People's Choice Award yesterday... to no one's surprise. Considering critical and social media reactions to the film, the surprise would have been that it had not won. Frankly, I thought from the buzz that was coming out of TIFF that the only film that might have a shot at denying the PC Award to The Fabelmans was Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery.
As it turned out, the runner-up happened to be today's MTFB People's poll topper Women Talking. Glass Onion ended up as the second runner-up.
I think you could fairly say that The Fabelmans is now the post Telluride-Venice-Toronto Best Picture frontrunner. To my mind the only possible threat to it is the upcoming release of Damien Chazelle's Babylon. I'll likely have my first set of Oscar predictions up on the blog a week from today as we close the book on the fest season for the most part and head into the Oscar season.
Belgium revealed last Friday that it will submit Lukas Dhont's Close as its candidate for the International Feature Oscar. The film, which you will note from above did not have enough views to qualify for this year's MTFB People's poll, could be a strong contender based on its reception atCannes where it won the Grand Prix award.
Posting a little later than normal today...It's a Monday. What can I say?
THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE
This reminder...Now that TFF #49 has concluded...you know what to do! Send in your ratings of the films you saw. The deadline for ratings is this Thursday, Sept. 15th.
Remember to rate as follows: 1 to 5 scale with 1 meaning it was bad and 5 means it was great.
Email them to mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
TFF #49 AND VENICE
TFF #49 films were well rewarded at the conclusion of the Venice Film Festival:
Golden Lion (Best Film in Competition) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed/Laura Poitras
Silver Lion for Best Direction: Luca Guadagnino/Bones and All
Volpi Cup for Best Actress: Cate Blanchett/TAR
Marcello Marstroianni Award for Best Young Actress/Actor: Taylor Russell/Bones and All
Martin McDonagh's The Banshees of Inisherin also landed two top prizes with Colin Ferrell picking up Best Actor over a very lauded performance from Brendan Fraser in The Whale and McDonagh won for Best Screenplay.
ALEXANDER PAYNE'S THE HOLDOVERS MAY STILL RELEASE IN 2022
Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel is reporting that Alexander Payne's The Holdovers might still make a run at a release date before the end of the year.
As you may recall, I wrote about the possibility that the new film might make a sneak appearance at Telluride which did not happen.
Ruimy, citing reporting from Mike Fleming, Jr. at Deadline , tells us that the film starring, Paul Giamatti, was to have been screened for possible distributors this past weekend at the Toronto Fest. That begs the question...if it's ready to screen for possible distributors, why didn't it play TFF? The word I heard was that the film wasn't "ready" but it WAS ready one week later?
BREAKING NEWS: THE HOLDOVERS ON BRINK OF SALE TO FOCUS FEATURES
This morning, after having posted this story, we found out that Focus Features is on the verge of closing a $30 million dollar deal to acquire The Holdovers.
Toronto has completed announcing its lineup and we're just a week-ish away from the 49th edition of the Telluride Film Festival. Some adds and slight changes to this next-to-last set of Bets. I'll have a FINAL TEN (PLUS) BETS in Monday's MTFB post.
By way of re-capping, here's last week's Ten (Plus) Bets:
1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) Broker/Kore-eda
4) Holy Spider/Abbasi
5) The Wonder/Lelio
6) Empire of Light/Mendes
7) Armageddon Time/Gray
8) Bardo/Inarritu
9) TAR/Fields
10) Bones and All/Guadagnino
11) Good Night Oppy/White
12) A Compassionate Spy/James
13) Godland/Palmason
14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog
15) Living/Hermanus
Others Possibilities: Close/Dhont, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins, Athena/Gavras, Aftersun/Wells, Anastasia/McCarthy, Sr./Smith.
And here's this weeks updated Bets:
1) Empire of Light/Mendes
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) The Wonder/Lelio
4) Bardo/Iarritu
5) TAR/Field
6) Broker/Kore-eda
7) Holy Spider/Abbasi
8) Armageddon Time/Gray
9) Bones and All/Guadignino
10) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
11) Godland/Palmason
12) A Compassionate Spy/James
13) Good Night Oppy/White
14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog
15) Sr./Smith
16 The U.S, and the Holocaust/Burns
17) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed/Poitras
18) Close/Dhont
19) Something from Mark Cousins*
20) Aftersun/Wells
Others Possibilities: Living/Hermanus, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins*, My Name Is Alfred Hitchcock/Cousins*, March on Rome/Cousins*, Athena/Gavras, Anastasia/McCarthy, The Pupils/Rohrwacher
EMPIRE OF LIGHT POSTER AND TEASER
One of the films that I'm most sure will ply next week at Telluride is Sam Mendes' Empire of Light. At the moment it's among my top 2-3 films to make sure to catch next week. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see an Olivia Colman Tribute that includes the film...though maybe Toby Jones gets a tribute as he appears to be included in two films that will be screen next. In addition to Empire of Light Jones also appears in The Wonder.
At any rate, Searchlight has dropped a cool teaser for the film:
ATHENA GETS A TRAILER
Romain Gavras' Athena is a film that I have been including most of the season as an "Other Possibility" mostly due to its distributor: Netflix and as of late, its scheduled first screening at the Venice Film Fest-9:00 am Sept 2. That's also the same day that TAR and Bones and All are also screening initially. So...it's possible.
Netflix dropped a full trailer on Wednesday ahead of its Venice premiere (and possible Telluride SHOW).
Here's that trailer from YouTube:
IMDb's description of the film:
"Hours after the tragic death of their youngest brother in unexplained circumstances, three siblings have their lives thrown into chaos."
Irrespective if it does play Telluride is its release date for Netflix on Sept. 23rd.
RETURN OF AFTERSUN
You may have noticed that I have returned Charlotte Wells' Aftersun to the actual list of 20 films I'm expecting at TFF #49. That's because multiple sources reached out to me yesterday to let me know that the firm handling the PR for the film had sent an email to various press members that the film is screening at Toronto as a Canadian Premiere. That is at odds with what the film's premiere designation is at the TIFF website as of this morning. It's till listed as a North American Premiere there.
Aftersun is posted for the New York fest with no premiere designation which would normally signal a Telluride appearance...so with that apparent contradiction, I had moved it from the actual "Bets" to the list of "Other Possibilities"
I've thought Aftersun was a likely TFF #49 candidate since it debuted at Cannes last May. Its critical reception and its distribution by A24 made me think it was a very likely choice. Now, it seems, the record is probably set straight and so back to the "Bets" for today.
CAMDEN FILM FEST ANNOUNCEMENT SEEMS TO CONFIRM "SR." FOR TFF #49
Variety reporting selections made for the 18th annual Camden International Film Festival on Monday appear to have confirmed the Telluride world premiere of Chris smith's documentary about Indie film director Robert Downey, Sr. The film is entitled "Sr."
Here's the last paragraph of the Aug. 22nd post:
"This year’s CIFF highlights include the U.S. premiere of Tamana Ayazi and Marcel Mettelsiefen’s Netflix release “In Her Hands,” which follows one of Afghanistan’s first female mayors during the months leading up to the Taliban takeover the country in 2021; Chris Smith’s “Sr.,” centered on the life and career of Robert Downey Sr. and his relationship to his son, Robert Downey Jr.; and Steve James’ “A Compassionate Spy,” about Manhattan Project physicist, Soviet spy and University of Chicago alum Theodore Hall. Each of the three featured documentaries will have made its world premiere before CIFF, at festivals in Toronto, Telluride and Venice, respectively."
BTW, we also think T-ride is going to screen Steve James' A Compassionate Spy at TFF #49.
MARCH ON ROME POSTER
Director Mark Cousins tweeted a photo of the poster for one of his new films: March on Rome which Cousins suggested is: "The new poster for my film about fascism." Not to put too fine a point on it.
Cousins has at least 2-3 projects that could make an appearance at TFF including this one as well as The Story of Film: A New Generation and an Alfred Hitchcock film he has been working on.
Cousins has also recently tweeted about making sure he could get his passport updated for travel to America as well as this tweet from yesterday:
"From Monday for 2 weeks I will be on a film journey in several countries, doing lots of things.
I'll tweet as I go, but mute me if it's a bit much."
This lends continued creedence to my belief that the T-ride regular and TFF member of its Esteemed Council of Advisors will be there next week with something. Maybe two somethings.
A wild couple of days with more announced films from New York and Toronto since Monday's post. As a result, some shakeup in the Ten Bets for this week. Here's a look at last week's Ten Bets:
1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) Broker/Kore-eda
4) Holy Spider/Abbasi
5) The Wonder/Lelio
6) Empire of Light/Mendes
7) Armageddon Time/Gray
8) Bardo/Inarritu
9) TAR/Fields
10) Bones and All/Guadagnino
11) Good Night Oppy/White
12) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper
13) A Compassionate Spy/James
14) Aftersun/Wells
15) Close/Dhont
Others Possibilities: Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins, Athena/Gavras.
And now for this week:
1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) Broker/Kore-eda
4) Holy Spider/Abbasi
5) The Wonder/Lelio
6) Empire of Light/Mendes
7) Armageddon Time/Gray
8) Bardo/Inarritu
9) TAR/Fields
10) Bones and All/Guadagnino
11) Good Night Oppy/White
12) A Compassionate Spy/James
13) Godland/Palmason
14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog
15) Living/Hermanus
Others Possibilities: Close/Dhont, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins, Athena/Gavras, Aftersun/Wells, Godland/Palmason, Anastasia/McCarthy, Sr./Smith, The Holdovers/Payne
"Cooper’s latest, titled “Pale Blue Eye,” will finally not be going to Telluride...Supposedly, there was a pretty bad test-screening earlier in the year.
I'm disappointed as Plae Blue Eye would have been a definite watch on my TFF dance card.
AFTERSUN...MAYBE NOT
You'll notice that I have moved Charlotte Wells Aftersun from a spot in the 15 Bets to "Other Possibilities" this week. That owes to the fact that the film was added this week by the Toronto Fest as a North American Premiere. I have had a notion that it would be a Telluride film from its reception at Cannes back in May. That, I thought, was seemingly confirmed when the New York Fest announced it as part of their Main Slate with no premiere designation.
Now, with the TIFF selection and designation, you have one of those classic moments we've all come to know when the status of a film is contradictory between two fests. What to do?
At this late date I have a hard time believing that Toronto would get this wrong. Accordingly I moved Aftersun off the Bets list for this week and even really thought that I wouldn't even include it as an "Other Possibility".
HERZOG YES...JUST NOT WHAT WE THOUGHT
Photo via TIFF
Werner Herzog's Theatre of Thought was announced on Wednesday as an International Premiere for Toronto. The film is so fresh that you can't find it listed on Herzog's IMDb Pro page. The International Premiere status means that it will have played within its country of origin. So one can surmise that the film will likely play Telluride (rather than Fantastic Fest which doesn't start until TIFF is over).
Here is the TIFF description for the film:
"Werner Herzog sets his sights on yet another mysterious landscape — the human brain — for clues as to why a hunk of tissue can produce profound thoughts and feelings while considering the philosophical, ethical, and social implications of fast-advancing neural technology."
As a side note, this seeming confirmation that this Herzog doc is playing TFF #49 don't discount the possibility that The Fire Within might also screen at Telluride.
LIVING AND VENICE-A CLUE?
So many chunks of information to sift through this week including the release of the schedule for the Venice Film Fest. That is often a good indicator of films that will play at Venice first before making the trans-Atlantic flight to Telluride.
To make the leap films generally play the first three to four days of the Venice affair. This year Venice opens on Aug. 31st. So what films that we believe are playing Telluride are loaded in that time frame?
8/31- TAR and Living
9/1- Bardo, A Compassionate Spy
9/2 Bones and All, Athena, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
9/3 Argentina 1985
So, we've been pretty sure about Bardo, TAR and Bones and All for awhile. I'm also pretty confident about A Compassionate Spy.
I think most of you have seen my theory about Living making a stop at Telluride and this early screening time for it fits that theory really well.
As for Athena...timing works well enough. Argentina 1985 is problematic with the screening on Day 4 and I'm still leery that All the Beauty is, in fact as advertised by some portions of the Toronto PR, a North American Premiere there and won't be at TFF #49.
Toronto's announcement yesterday included Hylnur Palmason's Godland as a Canadian Premiere. The film played Cannes as a part of the Un Certain Regard program where it was generally well regarded by critics.
Godland has played a number of other international film fests including: Sydney, Transylvania and New Horizons. The Canadian Premiere designation means an almost certain play at TFF #49.
The IMDb description of the film:
"In the late 19th century, a young Danish priest travels to a remote part of Iceland to build a church and photograph its people. But the deeper he goes into the unforgiving landscape, the more he strays from his purpose, his mission and morality."
OTHER THOUGHTS:
Looks like Sarah McCarthy's short Anastasia could be Telluride bound as it is listed by Toronto as a Canadian Premiere.
NYFF announced a screening of Chris Smith's Sr. a documentary focused on the life of Robert Downey Sr. NYFF listed without any premiere designation which could mean a TFF #49 play.
