Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
MTFB OSCAR TAKE: UPDATING BEST PICTURE AND DIRECTION
In today's post I am updating Oscar predictions for Best Picture and Best Direction which were last posted on Nov. 3rd. TFF #49 films are in Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) The Fabelmans (1)
2) The Banshees of Inisherin (2)
3) Women Talking (3)
4) Top Gun: Maverick (6)
5) Everything Everywhere All at Once (4)
6) TAR (5)
7) Elvis (10)
8) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (New)
9) Glass Onion (7)
10) Triangle of Sadness (11)
11) She Said (9)
12) Babylon (8)
Out: Empire of Light
Ought to think about: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Living and Armageddon Time
Comment: Wildly divergent responses to Damien Chazelle's Babylon from screenings this week in Los Angeles and New York have lead me to drop its prospects for a Best Picture nomination significantly. The film is under an embargo for full reviews but social media reaction was divisive to say the least.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans (1)
2) Sarah Polley/Women Talking (2)
3) Martin McDonagh/The Banshees of Inisherin (3)
4) Todd Field/TAR (4)
5) The Daniels/EEAAO (5)
6) Damien Chazelle/Babylon (6)
7) Rueben Ostlund/Triangle of Sadness (7)
TRAILERS AND TEASERS
Official Trailer for Empire of Light via YouTube:
Official trailer for If These Walls Could Sing from YouTube:
CRITICS CHOICE DOC AWARDS AND TFF #49
The Critics Choice Awards for Documentary film making were named last Sunday night and TFF #49 entrant Good Night Oppy dominated the evening.
Oppy won for Best Doc (Gold award), Direction, Best Science/Nature Doc, Score and Narration.
Navalny, which was not included in the TFF #49 program but reportedly did screen in Elk Park prior to the Fest's officially opening received the Bronze award for Doc Feature as well as Best Political Doc.
And Citizen Ashe which screened at TFF #48 was named Best Sports Doc.
Who might be joining us mere mortals in the San Juans in just a few weeks? Working from my current Ten (Plus) Bets list, here are some possibilities (listed by film) with past TFF Guests indicated with ***:
Armageddon Time: Anne Hathaway, Jeremy Strong, Anthony Hopkins (who may have been a Tribute recipient had there been a TFF #47) and Jessica Chastain.
Bones and All: Timothee Chalamet, Taylor Russell***, Michael Stuhlbarg, Mark Rylance, Chloe Sevigny***.
Empire of Light: Colin Firth*** (Tribute 2010), Olivia Colman, Toby Jones.
One Fine Morning: Lea Seydoux***.
The Pale Blue Eye: Christian Bale***, Henry Melling, Gillian Anderson, Robert Duvall
TAR: Cate Blanchett, Mark Strong
Women Talking: Jesse Buckley, Rooney Mara*** (Tribute 2015), Clare Foy, Ben Whishaw, Frances McDormand.
The Wonder: Florence Pugh.
Hot prospects for Tributes include Cate Blanchett, Anne Hathaway, Olivia Colman and Frances McDormand.
THE STORY OF FILM: A NEW GENERATION TRAILER
TFF "Usual Suspect" Mark Cousins has a couple of projects that could make a splash at TFF #49. One is an updating of sorts of his The Story of Film. That film is The Story of Film: A New Generation and comes 10 years after the original. The new version has a new trailer which dropped last week. Here that is via YouTube:
Additionally, Cousins has a new documentary that will land at Venice and then could end up at Telluride. March on Rome which is described at IMDb as a film that:
"Depicts the ascent of fascism in Italy, and its fallout across 1930s Europe."
I wouldn't be stunned if both films were screened at the fest.
ARMAGEDDON AT NYFF
The New York Film festival has announced that James Gray's Armageddon Time will play as a "Main Slate selection". The announcement from NYFF is a little bit cagey with its language about the premiere status of the film:
"The premiere has been designated a special 60th anniversary screening event celebrating the history of the festival, featuring Gray and cast in attendance, along with NYFF filmmakers and supporters who have been integral to the festival’s success."
There's no actual mention of its premiere status despite using the word premiere" in the announcement. If the film isn't playing TFF/TIFF then New York could and likely would bill it as an North American premiere. Also, the "60th anniversary screening event" language makes me think that the film plays somewhere else before NYFF.
So I'm going to stand pat, for the moment anyway, that Armageddon Time still screens at TFF #49.
Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel continues to be a fount of info regarding festival season. In one of his later posts he seems to confirm that Steve James' A Compassionate Spy is headed for Telluride:
"Then there’s Steve James’ “A Compassionate Spy,” set to premiere at Venice, Telluride, Toronto and Chicago."
I reported here a week ago that the documentary looked like it was headed to TFF #49 based on a Chicago Tribune story which included this:
"Though the filmmaker could not confirm the near-future for his latest project, many world premieres start at Venice and then go straight to a U.S. premiere at the Telluride Film Festival in Colorado a few days later."
And:
"James wrapped up principal photography in April, and his producers at Participant Media suggested submitting the film for Venice (Aug. 31-Sept. 10) and Telluride (Sept. 2-5)."
PS...another doc that Jordan mentions is Laura Poitras' All the Beauty and the Bloodshed" has also been announced as NYFF's Centerpiece and os absent any premiere designation for that fest as far as I can tell.
That leads me to think that we might consider it as a TFF #49 prospect. The film focuses on the work of photographer Nan Goldin and her fight against the Sackler family (Purdue Pharma).
Goldin's story was recently included as a part of the Hulu miniseries Dopesick.
Film distribution company NEON has come on like gangbusters in the past couple of years. Their The B Side: Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Photography played Telluride in 2016. NEON also played with Border and The Biggest Little Farm last year. Additionally NEON ended up as the distributor for the Aretha Franklin documentary Amazing Grace which was expected to play TFF in both 2015 and 2016 but, due to legal issues did not.
So...it's not a lengthy Telluride resume but it is relatively intense of late. As a matter of fact, their emergence is so recent I didn't even handicap their chances with films last year and as you can see above, they landed two.
Now, as we're assessing the 2019 landscape, NEON seems poised to make a splash again this year as they have acquired two huge titles from Cannes. Palme d'Or winner Parasite and Best Screenplay winner at Cannes: Portrait of a Lady on Fire. At the moment, these two films seem to be the only two NEON films with a shot at TFF #46.
I'm bullish on the chances for both films to make it to the 2019 version of The SHOW
Chances...
Parasite 60%
Portrait of a Lady on Fire 60%
More distribution analysis tomorrow.
PICO IYER WILL LEAD US
The Telluride Film Festival officially announced that author Pico Iyer will serve as Guest Director this year.
Here's the text of the official announcement:
BERKELEY, CA – Telluride Film Festival (TFF), presented by
National Film Preserve LTD., is proud to announce its 2019 Guest Director, Pico
Iyer. The celebrated author is set to select a series of films to present at
the 46th Telluride Film Festival running over Labor Day Weekend, August 30
through September 2, 2019.
Festival organizers annually select one of the world’s great
film enthusiasts to join them in the creation of the Festival’s program lineup.
The Guest Director serves as a key collaborator in the Festival’s programming
decisions, bringing new ideas and overlooked films to Telluride. In keeping
with Telluride Film Festival tradition, Iyer’s film selections, along with the
rest of the Telluride lineup, will be kept secret until Opening Day.
“Pico is a tremendously gifted writer with unrivaled wit,”
said TFF Executive Director Julie Huntsinger. “His enthusiasm for film,
especially within his writing, has buoyed and enchanted us. It has made working
with him to create this year’s Guest Director program a particularly delightful
experience. Both Tom Luddy and I are thrilled to have him with us this year.”
Pico Iyer is the author of two novels and thirteen works of
non-fiction. His books have been translated into 23 languages and both his 2008
meditation on the XIVth Dalai Lama, The Open Road, and his TED Book, The Art of
Stillness, were best sellers across the U.S. They have also made him a
Guggenheim Fellow, a Pulitzer Prize nominee and a finalist for the Los Angeles
Times Book Prize.
An essayist for Time since 1986, he is a constant
contributor to The New York Times, The New York Review of Books, Harper’s and
more than 200 other newspapers and magazines worldwide, and he has published
introductions to 70 other works.
Iyer has also written many liner-notes for Leonard Cohen,
essays for several Criterion Collection DVDs and a screenplay for Miramax. His
writing on Malick, Farhadi, Bertolucci, Scorsese and many other filmmakers has
appeared all over, and his writing on movie studios from North Korea to
Hyderabad has borne out The New Yorker’s assertion that “As a guide to
far-flung places, he can hardly be surpassed.”
Born in Oxford, England, in 1957, Iyer was educated at Eton,
Oxford and Harvard. This year he’s been serving as Ferris Professor of
Journalism at Princeton.
“In the times I’ve been to the Festival I’ve seen as many
rich and original films in three days as I get to watch in the next twelve
months combined,” said Iyer. “So when Tom and Julie asked if I might be willing
to serve as Guest Director this year, I felt as stunned and delighted as if I’d
been given the keys to the kingdom. Movies have actually been my secret passion
for as long as the Telluride Film Festival has been around. But nobody had
intuited this until Tom and Julie, a dream team of sorts, sensed my excitement
and offered me a chance to share my enthusiasms and passions with others. The
invitation to help choose films for the Festival this year was the most
exciting one I can remember receiving; I only hope I can pass on a fraction of
the delight that I have found at Telluride to others in this inspiring
community.”
Past Guest Directors include Jonathan Lethem, Joshua
Oppenheimer, Volker Schlöndorff, Rachel Kushner, Guy Maddin, Caetano Veloso,
Michael Ondaatje, Alexander Payne, Salman Rushdie, Peter Bogdanovich, B. Ruby
Rich, Phillip Lopate, Errol Morris, Bertrand Tavernier, John Boorman, John
Simon, Buck Henry, Laurie Anderson, Stephen Sondheim, G. Cabrera Infante, Peter
Sellars, Don DeLillo, J.P. Gorin, Edith Kramer and Slavoj Žižek.
The Guest Director program is sponsored by Turner Classic
Movies (TCM). Considered throughout the industry as one of the leading
authorities on classic film, the network presents great films, uncut and
commercial-free, highlighting the entire spectrum of film history.
FIRST GAZE AT LITTLE WOMEN
Vanity Fair revealed a first look at still photography from Greta Gerwig's highly anticipated adaptation of Louisa Mae Alcott's classic Little Women.
The film stars Meryl Streep, Saoirse Ronan, Emma Watson, Florence Pugh, Timothee Chalamet, Bob Odenkirk and Laura Dern.
The film is being shepherded by Sony/Columbia nd is due for release on Dec. 25th.
It;s Thursday and MTFB is back with more speculation and reportage regarding the Telluride Film Festival...
THE DISTRIBUTORS 2108: THE COHEN MEDIA GROUP
Over the years the Cohen Media Group has had a modestly robust presence at the Telluride Film Festival. Here's the history of the organization at TFF since 2012:
2017: The Insult, Face Places
2016: Journey Through French Cinema
2015: Hitchcock/Truffaut, Marguerite, Rams
2014: Magician
2013: No Show
2012: The Attack
But this year, at least at this moment, CMG's larder is almost bare. According to IMDb it seems as of the only film that they have that could be in play for TFF is Julien Landais' The Aspern Papers based on the Henry James novel and starring Joely Richardson, Jonathan Rhys Meyers and Vanessa Redgrave.
The period romance has reportedly been in post-production since last August.
Put The Aspern Papers at 30% and also keep an eye peeled for other Cohen Media acquisitions as we go through the next few weeks. Should that happen, it might change the calculus for CMG's TFF profile.
BEAUTIFUL BOY TRAILER AND POSTER LAND
As advertised, the trailer for Felix Von Groeningen's Beautiful Boy starring Steve Carell and Timothee Chalamet popped yesterday. It's good. Here its is from YouTube:
The film tells the true story of father and son Nic and David Sheff and the challenges to their lives and relationships due to the son's drug addiction. The screenplay is based on the memoirs of both; father David's Beautiful Boy and son Nic's Tweak.
The film is distributed by Amazon Studios and is scheduled for release on Oct. 12th.
Here's coverage of the release of the trailer from:
A couple of these outlets mention that the film is expected to play the fall film circuit. ShowBiz411 specifically mention Telluride and Toronto as possibilities.
Yes please.
MARWEN MOVED
I was very excited and responsive to the trailer that was released a week ago but in these intervening seven days came news that Universal has decided to move the film's release from its original November date to Dec. 21. The U dated Green Room for the Nov. date in Welcome to Marwen's place.
My initial impression is that the move to December could signal that the film won't be ready in time for Telluride/Venice/Toronto. It might also indicate a New York Film Fest premiere and/or and AFI Fest slot as well.
It almost certainly signals less of a chance that the film will make it to Telluride.
That's today's MTFB. Come back tomorrow for the first Ten Bets for TFF #45!
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
Welcome back from your weekend...hope it was a good one...
THE AWARDS FROM THE 71ST CANNES FILM FESTIVAL
The Cannes Film Fest closed Saturday with the presentation of awards. The winners were:
Main Competition:
Palme d'Or: Shoplifters
Grand Prix: BlacKkKlansman
Jury Prize: Capharnaum
Director: Pawel Pawlikowski-Cold War
Screenplay: Happy as Lazzaro and Three Faces
Actress: Samal Yeslyamova-Ayka
Actor: Marcello Fonte-Dogman
Special Palme: The Image Book
Here's the trailer for the Palme d'Or winner from YouTube:
Un Certain Regard:
UCR Prize: Border
Screenplay: Sofia
Best Performance: Victor Polster-Girl
Director: Sergei Loznitsa-Donbass
Special Jury Prize: The Dead and the Others
From among the Palme winners, I suspect every film is a potential TFF player at this point with the exception of Spike Lee's BlacKkKlansman which Focus Features has set for release on Aug. 10th and I also have my doubts about Goddard's Image Book.
Another wrinkle is the acquisition of Happy as Lazzaro and Girl during the fest and, at this point, trying to divine what that will me for how those films get released and the implications for a possible Telluride play are difficult.
Netflix has been a presence at Telluride the past three years but that was prior to the brouhaha that played out in France this past few weeks that resulted in Netflix screening nothing in Cannes. How that factors into their plans heading to the fall and if it has a residual effect regarding TFF programmers...I don't know.
In addition to the Cannes acquisitions, Netflix also has Martin Scorsese's The Irishman which one would think would be a major player come awards season if it's done... and that's a BIG IF. And they also have Alfonso Cuaron's Roma and Orson Welles' The Other Side of the Wind (which I really believe will play TFF #45).
Stand by to hear what the Netflix plan is for releasing these acquisitions. Maybe that will give us some insight.
Regular readers of this space probably know from past posts that the Cannes/Telluride crossover averages between seven and eight films each year. Most of those titles come from the main competition and Un Certain Regard sections that. Occasionally titles will come from some part of the non-competition slate or even the Directors Fortnight presentations.
So, as I have said, the Cannes/Telluride crossover is strong and has a lengthy history but the connection to the Cannes prize winners is fairly tenuous. Over the past decade, only three Palme d'Or winners have made the journey to Telluride: The White Ribbon ('10), Amour ('12) and Blue Is the Warmest Colour ('13).
Actually, in the last ten years, the film that wins the Grand Prix (second place essentially) is more likely to make the trip to the San Juans: Gomorrah ('08), A Prophet ('09), Of Gods and Men ('10), Inside Llewyn Davis ('13), Son of Saul ('15).
The other modestly successful predictor, weirdly, is Best Actor: Biutiful ('10), The Artist ('11), The Hunt ('12), Nebraska ('13), Mr. Turner ('14).
Other Cannes prizes and their TFF crossovers the past ten years are:
Jury Prize (third place): Fish Tank ('09), Loveless ('17)
Director: Foxcatcher ('14), Graduation ('16)
Actress: The Past ('13), Carol ('15)
Screenplay: Poetry ('10), Footnote ('11), Leviathan ('14)
UCR Prize: Tulpan ('08), Rams ('16), A Man of Integrity ('17)
This history suggests that the most likely Cannes plays for TFF #45 would be BlacKkKlansman but we know it won't be as it will be released three weeks before the festival which points us toward the Best Actor winner-Dogman. That has a real shot.
THE LAST ROUND-UP OF CRITICS FOR CANNES 2018
Here's the final critical assessment of films that played these last two weeks in Cannes beginning with the behemoth from Reini Urban:
Overall from all sections the top five films critically were:
1) Dead Souls
2) Burning
3) Thunder Road
4) Shoplifters
5) Happy as Lazarro
(Note: the short film Ultra Purple/Apocalypse After actually would sit at #4 but was scored by only five critics. Dead Souls was also only scored by 16 critics)
Top five from the Palme d'Or section:
1) Burning (8.10/10)
2) Shoplifters (7.67)
3) Happy as Lazarro (7.63)
4) The Wild Pear Tree (7.49)
5) Cold War (7.42)
Top three from the UCR section
1) Long Days Journey Into Night (7.40)
2) Girl (7.15)
3) The Dead and the Others (6.91)
From Ioncinema's ratings of the Palme d'Or competition:
1) Burning (3.8/5-TIE)
1) The Wild Pear Tree (3.8)
3) Cold War (3.7)
4) Shoplifters (3.6)
5) Ash Is the Purest White (3.3 TIE)
5) Leto (3.3)
5) Three Faces (3.3)
Terry Gilliam's The Man Who Killed Don Quixote has finally screened for live humans in a theater!!!
And now that it has...I can't say that I'm surprised that I have been seeing a number of reviews that have used words like "confused" and "missing a bit of soul". As I type (with a small number of reviews counted, RT has it at 57% and Metacritic has it at a 50.
It sounds like what I've come to expect from Gilliam...
Does that mean it's off the table for TFF #45? Can't say that yet.
Another note about the 71st Cannes: I was a little alarmed at how often I saw the phrase "slow burn" in takes about films that played...which I sometimes think is code for "it's slow but important".
Now that Cannes is in the books, I'll pay attention to acquisition news and release dates concerning these titles for additional TFF clues.
A FIRST LOOK AT BEAUTIFUL BOY
Felix Van Groeningen's Beautiful Boy will probably be on my first Ten Bets list (which is about six weeks away). From Amazon Studios, the film features Timothee Chalamet (Oscar nominated last year for Call Me By Your Name) and Steve Carell (Oscar nominated for Foxcatcher) as son and father dealing with the youngsters addiction to meth.
It's likely going to be a part of our conversations for the next several months.
That said, this week, we saw the first footage for the film via a 30 second teaser which is here from YouTube:
Additionally, here is coverage from Indiewire and The Playlist of the release of the teaser.
That's your MTFB for this Monday. Have a good week everyone...and more to come on Thursday.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
