Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
MTFB OSCAR TAKE: SECOND PREDICTIONS FOR INTERNATIONAL, DOCUMENTARY AND ANIMATED FEATURES AND CASTING
Here's MTFB's third round of Oscar nomination predictions for these four categories.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
1) Sentimental Value (Norway) (1)
2) It Was Just an Accident (France) (2)
3) The Secret Agent (Brazil) (3)
4) Sirat (5)
5) No Other Choice (South Korea) (4)
Others: The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia), Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan) and Kukuho (Japan).
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1) The Perfect Neighbor (1)
2) 2000 Meters to Andriivka (2)
3) Cover-Up (4)
4) The Alabama Solution (5)
5) My Undesirable Friends Part 1...(NR)
Others:Apocalypse in the Tropics*, Come See Me in the Good Light and Mr. Nobody Against Putin.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1) K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)
2) Zootopia 2 (2)
3) Arco (3)
4) Little Amelie or the Character of Rain (4)
5) Elio (5)
Others: In Your Dreams, Demon slayer, The Magnificent Life.
BEST CASTING
1) Sinners (1)
2) One Battle After Another (2)
3) Marty Supreme (3)
4) Hamnet (4)
5) Wicked: For Good (4)
Others: Frankenstein, Sentimental Value and Weapons.
NATIONAL SOCIETY OF FILM CRITICS AWARDS
The National Society of Film Critics announced their awards for 2025 this past weekend. Here's how TFF #52 showed:
The Secret Agent: Winner: Best Foreign Language Film, First Runner-up Actor (Moura), Second Runner-up Best Picture and Second Runner-up Screenplay.
It Was Just an Accident: Winner Best Screenplay, First Runner-up Film in a Foreign Language and First Runner-up Director.
Blue Moon: Winner Best Actor (Hawke), First Runner-up Screenplay, 2nd Runner-up Director.
Sentimental Value: Second Runner-up Film in a Foreign Language, 2nd Runner-up Actress (Reinsve), Second Runner-up Supporting Actress (Lilleaas), Second Runner-up Supporting Actor (Skarsgard).
If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Forst Runner-up Actress (Byrne).
Nouvelle Vague: Second Runner-up Director (along with Blue Moon).
MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: MAKEUP/HAIR AND COSTUMES PLUS FIRST PREDICTIONS FOR SHORTS
In today's MTFB Oscar Update I update predictions for the Makeup/Hair and Costume categories as well as adding first predictions for the Shorts. For Makeup/Hair their previous rank appears in parentheses to the right of the title. As always, TFF films are in Bold.
COSTUMES (last predicted on Dec. 21st)
1) Barbie (1)
2) Poor Things (2)
3) Killers of the Flower Moon (4)
4) The Color Purple (3)
5) Maestro (5)
Alternates: Oppenheimer, Napoleon and Wonka.
MAKEUP AND HAIR
1) Maestro (1)
2) Poor Things (2)
3) Oppenheimer (-)
4) Killers of the Flower Moon (-)
5) Society of the Snow (-)
Alternates: Golda, Napoleon and Ferrari.
ANIMATED SHORT
1) War Is Over Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
2) Once upon a Studio
3) I'm Hip
4) A Kind of Testament
5) Eeva
Alternates: Boom, Wild Summon and Letter to a Pig.
LIVE ACTION SHORT
1) The Wonderful Life of Henry Sugar
2) Strange Way of Life
3) Good Boy
4) The After
5) Knight of Fortune
Alternates: The Anne Frank Gift Shop, Yellow and Invincible.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1) The Last Repair Shop
2) Last Song from Kabul
3) The ABCs of Book Banning
4) The Barber of Little Rock
5) Deciding Vote
Alternates: Oasis, Camp Courage and Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games.
As of this morning's post I am predicting TFF films with a total of 36 nominations with another 16 "alternates". Here's the TFF breakdown:
Poor Things (11 noms and one alternate) : Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor (Ruffalo), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Production Design, Visual Effects and Makeup/Hair. The alternate is a second Supporting Actor nomination for Willem Dafoe.
The Zone of Interest (Six noms and two alternates): Best Picture, Direction, International Film, Cinematography, Score and Sound. Alternates are Huller for Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay.
The Holdovers (Four noms and three alternatives): Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay. Alternates are for Direction, Supporting Actor and Editing.
Anatomy of a Fall (Three noms and one alternate):Best Picture, Actress and Original Screenplay and the alternate is for Original Screenplay.
American Symphony (Two noms): Best Doc feature and Song.
All of Us Strangers (One nom and one alternate): The nom for Adapted Screenplay and a Best Actor alternate.
Nyad (One nom and one alternate): The nom for Supporting Actress with a Best Actress alternate.
Rustin (One nom and one alternate): The nom for Best Song with an alternate possibility for Best Actor.
In addition to The Zone of Interest in International Feature I'm predicting three other TFF films to be nominated in that category: The Taste of Things, The Teachers' Lounge and Fallen Leaves. Totem and Perfect Days could also make it into the category. Were it not for Society of the Snow I'd likely be predicting that all five nominees for International Feature would be TFF films.
In Documentary feature, in addition to American Symphony, I have Beyond Utopia making it into the list of nominees.
And finally, in the Shorts categories I have three TFF films being nominated as you can see above: Strange Way of Life, The Last Repair Shop and Last Song from Kabul.
In terms of other predictions not TFF films I have Killers of the Flower Moon leading the pack with 12 nominations. Could KOTFM replicate The Irishman and have this many nominations and not win any? Percentages right now suggest that is unlikely. Lily Gladstone isn't certain to win Best Actress but she is certainly the frontrunner. That said, she could be the only winner for KOTFM on Oscar night.
Other non-TFF films with double nomination totals predicted: Oppenheimer with 11 and Barbie with 10 though Barbie could add up to three additional nominations. Maestro is now predicted for seven nominations with a shot at two others.
COMING UP...
It's a big Oscar pre-cursor period between now and MTFB's next post on Monday.
Tomorrow the BAFTA longlists are released.
Saturday we'll see the National Society of Film Critics announce the top three vote getters in each of 10 categories.
And on Sunday The Golden Globes announce their winners.
The British Academy of Film and Television Arts announced their longlist of finalists for potential nominations for the films of 2022. 13 films from TFF were longlisted in at least one category with Charlotte Wells' Aftersun and Todd Field's TAR the leaders from TFF with eight mentions each. All told TFF films landed 40 mentions. Here's the rundown:
Aftersun (8): Best Film, Best British Film, Best Debut, Direction, Original Screenplay, Actor (Mescal), Casting and Editing.
TAR (8): Best Film, Direction, Original Screenplay, Actress (Blanchett), Casting, Cinematography, Score and Sound.
Living: (6): Best Film, Best British Film, Adapted Screenplay, Actor (Nighy), Supporting Actress (Wood) and Casting.
Women Talking (4): Direction, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actor (Whishaw) and Score.
Empire of Light (4): Best British Film, Supporting Actor (Ward), Score and Production Design.
The Wonder (3): Best British Film, Adapted Screenplay and Score.
Single mentions for the following:
Lady Chatterley's Lover: Best British Film.
Bardo: Best Film not in the English Language.
Close: Best Film not in the English Language.
Holy Spider: Best Film not in the English Language.
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed: Best Documentary.
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song: Best Documentary.***
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On: Best Animated Film.***
(*** from TFF #48)
Edward Berger's All Quiet on the Western Front led all films with 15 mentions.
Takeaways: I think that Aftersun and Living stealth possibilities for a Best Picture Oscar nomination.
Women Talking continues to underperform and looks less and less likely of a Best Picture nomination or any acting nominations (Whishaw's inclusion on the shortlist notwithstanding.).
Today I am updating predictions in the categories of Best Original and Adapted Screenplay. These were last predicted on Dec. 26th. In addition, I have included my first attempts to predict nominees in Makeup/Hair, Costumes and Visual Effects. Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses. Films from TFF #49 are in Bold.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Women Talking (1)
2) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (2)
3) Living (3)
4) She Said (4)
5) All Quiet on the Western Front (7)
6) The Whale (5)
7) Top Gun: Maverick (-)
Out: White Noise
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) The Banshees of Inisherin (2)
2) Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)
3) The Fabelmans (3)
4) TAR (4)
5) Triangle of Sadness (5)
6) Aftersun (6)
7) Babylon (7)
MAKEUP/HAIR
1) Elvis (1)
2) The Whale (2)
3) The Batman (3)
4) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (4)
5) Babylon (5)
6) All Quiet on the Western Front (6)
7) Blonde (7)
COSTUME
1) Elvis (1)
2) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2)
3) Babylon (3)
4) Living (6)
5) The Woman King (5)
6) The Fabelmans (4)
7) Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (7)
VISUAL EFFECTS
1) Avatar: The Way of Water (1)
2) Top Gun: Maverick (2)
3) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (3)
4) The Batman (4)
5) Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (5)
6) All Quiet on the Western Front (6)
7) Nope (7)
THE NATIONAL SOCIETY OF FILM CRITICS AND TFF
Five TFF films earned various degrees of notoriety from the National Society of Film Critics over the weekend. Todd Field's TAR was the most decorated of all films as it was named Best Film as well as Cate Blanchett winning as Best Actress and Fields winning Best Screenplay. Nina Hoss was first runner-up for Best Supporting Actress.
Charlotte Wells' Aftersun also did well as Wells was named Best Director. The film was also the runner-up to TAR for Best Picture and Paul Mescal was first runner-up for Best Actor.
Laura Poitras' All the Beauty and the Bloodshed was named Best Documentary.
Bill Nighy was named second runner-up for Best Actor for Living and James Gray was second runner-up for Best Screenplay for Armageddon Time.
Peter Bogdanovich died on Thursday. Over the past 20+ years he was a frequent presence at The SHOW beginning with his choice to Guest Direct the festival in 1998. That year he programmed: Orson Welles Touch of Evil. Bogdanovich's own Directed by John Ford was also featured at the 25th TFF.
Bogdanovich returned to T-ride a number of times thereafter including 2001, 2003, 2004, 2006 and 2018. He was part of my first Telluride in 2006 as he was back at the fest with Directed by John Ford again.
His film legacy included: The Last Picture Show, What's Up Doc? Paper Moon, Saint Jack and Mask among others. He was twice Oscar nominated for The Last Picture Show as Best Director and co-writer with Larry McMurtry.
On a different note, although never an attendee (at least to my knowledge) of the Telluride Film Festival, I have to also note the passing of Sidney Poitier. Truly a giant in the world of film.
NSFC AND THE GOLDEN GLOBES
The National Society of Film Critics and The Golden Globes announced their winners for films from 2021 over the weekend.
THE NSFC
The NSFC announces winners and runners-up through third place (and the vote totals for each). Here are the TFF #48 films/performers that were named winners or runners-up.
Best Picture: #2 Petite Maman #3 The Power of the Dog (Drive My Car was named Best Picture.
Best Direction: #2 Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog, #3 Celine Sciamma/Petite Maman
Best Nonfiction Film: #1 Flee, #2 Procession, #3 The Velvet Underground
Best Cinematography #2 The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actress: #1 Jesse Buckley/The Lost Daughter
Best Actor: #2 Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog, #3 Simon Rex/Red Rocket
TFF regulars Bertrand Tavernier and Peter Bogdanovich both received notice being named winners of the NSFC Film Heritage Award.
A modified version of the Golden Globes was held last night as The Hollywood Foreign Press Association continues to try to rehabilitate itself into the awards power that it has been over the last several years. Absent a television presentation, the HFPA "announced" their awards via social media. TFF #48 winners in Bold.
Best Picture/Drama: The Power of the Dog
Best Picture/Musical or Comedy: West Side Story
Best Direction: Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog
Best Actress/Drama: Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos
Best Actor/Drama: Will Smith/King Richard
Best Actress/Musical or Comedy: Rachel Zegler/West Side Story
Best Actor/Musical or Comedy: Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM
Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose/West Side Story
Best Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog
Best Screenplay: Kenneth Branagh/Belfast
Best Non-English Language Film: Drive My Car
Best Animated Film: Encanto
Best Score: Dune
Best Song: No Time to Die/No Time to Die
MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: BEST PICTURE, DIRECTION AND MORE
Here's the MTFB latest update on predictions for Academy Award nominations for Best Picture and Best Director, International Feature, Animated Feature and Documentary Feature. These categories were last predicted here on Dec. 27th. As always TFF #48 films are indicate in Bold and the film's previous position is indicated to the right in parentheses.
BEST PICTURE
1) Belfast (1)
2) The Power of the Dog (2)
3) West Side Story (3)
4) Dune (4)
5) Licorice Pizza (5)
6) King Richard (6)
7) CODA (7)
8) Don't Look Up (8)
9) tick, tick...BOOM (9)
10) The Tragedy of Macbeth (Alt.)
Alternates: Being the Ricardos and The Lost Daughter
BEST DIRECTION
1) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog
2) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast
3) Denis Villenueve/Dune
4) Steven Spielberg/West Side Story
5) Paul Thomas Anderson/Licorice Pizza
Alternates: Ryusuke Hamaguchi/Drive My Car and Maggie Gyllenhaal/The Lost Daughter
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
1) Drive My Car/Japan (1)
2) The Worst Person in the World/Norway (3)
3) A Hero/Iran (2)
4) Flee/Denmark (4)
5) The Hand of God/Italy (5)
Alternates: Compartment #6/Finland and I'm Your Man/Germany
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1) Encanto (1)
2) Flee (2)
3) The Mitchells vs. The Machines (3)
4) Luca (4)
5) Raya and the Last Dragon (5)
Alternates: Belle and Sing 2
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1) The Rescue (2)
2) Flee (1)
3) Summer of Soul (3)
4) Attica (4)
5) Ascension (Alt.)
Alternates: Procession and Faya Dayi
THE FILM STAGE'S 100 MOST ANTICIPATED
The Film Stage posted its list of 100 films for 2022 (maybe). As you might expect, I have culled it for TFF #49 possibilities. Here they be:
Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Original Screenplay updated since I last posted this category on Dec. 10th. A screenplay's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses. TFF #47 films are indicated in Bold.
1) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (1)
2) Promising Young Woman (5)
3) Mank (2)
4) Minari (3)
5) Soul (4)
6) Judas and the Black Messiah (6)
7) Never Rarely Sometimes Always (8)
8) Da 5 Bloods (7)
9) Sound of Metal (-)
10) Palm Springs (9)
Other Possibles: On the Rocks, the 40 Year old Version, Ammonite
Hot: Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal
Not: On the Rocks
Coming on Thursday...a new look at Best Picture.
NSFC NAMES WINNERS
The National Society of Film Critics met this past Saturday and decided on their superlatives for 2020. TFF #47 selection Nomadland was the big winner as it grabbed four prizes including Best Picture.
Here's the list of winners or runners-up from TFF #47 OR TFF #46:
Best Picture: Winner: Nomadland, Runner-up: First Cow (TFF #46)
Best Direction: Winner: Chloe Zhao/Nomadland, 2nd Runner-up: Kelly Reichardt/First Cow (TFF #46)
Best Actress: Winner: Frances McDormand/Nomadland
Best Screenplay: Runner-up: Kelly Reichardt/First Cow (TFF #46)
Best Cinematography: Winner: Nomadland
Best Foreign Language Film: Runner-up: Beanpole (TFF #46)
The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg posted an article on Saturday focusing on the race for Oscar nominations in the Documentary Feature and International Feature categories. Feinberg lists three TFF #47 films, one in both categories in the body of the article:
Docs:
All In: The Fight for Democracy
The Bee Gees: How Do You Men a Broken Heart
Notturno.
Feinberg also puts Notturno in the International Film category as well.
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association handed out its Golden Globe Awards last night. Here are the results for each of the 14 Film categories with TFF #46 films in Bold:
BEST PICTURE-DRAMA
1917
BEST PICTURE-MUSICAL/COMEDY
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
BEST ACTRESS/DRAMA Renee Zellweger/Judy
BEST ACTOR/DRAMA
Joaquin Phoenix/Joker.
BEST ACTRESS MUSICAL/COMEDY
Awkwafina/The Farewell
BEST ACTOR MUSICAL/COMEDY
Taron Egerton/ROcketman
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Laura Dern/Marriage Story
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood.
BEST DIRECTOR
Sam Mendes/1917
BEST SCREENPLAY
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM Parasite
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Winner: Missing Link
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1917
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Winner: I'm Gonna Love Me Again/Rocketman
TFF #46 films win three Globes:
Renee Zellweger/Best Actress-Drama/Judy
Laura Dern/Best Supporting Actress/Marriage Story
Parasite/Best Foreign Language Film
Multiple Globe winning films were:
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood- Best Picture/Comedy or Musical, Best Supporting Actor, Best Screenplay
1917-Best Picture/Drama, Best Direction
Joker- Best Actor/Drama, Best Score
Rocketman- Best Actor/Musical or Comedy, Best Song
OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE: INTERNATIONAL, ANIMATED AND DOCUMENTARY FEATURES
This update indicates my current thinking about the relative chances for an Oscar nomination. The film's previous ranking is indicated in parentheses. TFF #46 (and #45) films are indicated in Bold.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE (last predicted on Dec. 12th)
1) Parasite (1) 2) Pain and Glory (2)
3) Les Miserables (3) 4) Beanpole (-)
5) Atlantics (4)
6) Corpus Christi (6)
Other possibles: Honeyland, Truth and Justice, Those Who Remained, The Painted Bird
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1) Toy Story 4 (1)
2) Frozen II (2)
3) I Lost My Body (3)
4) The Missing Link (4)
5) How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (5)
6) Klaus (6)
Other possibles: Abominable, The Lion King, Funan
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1) American Factory (1)
2) Apollo 11 (2)
3) For Sama (3)
4) One Child Nation (4)
5) Honeyland (5) 6) Biggest Little Farm (6)
Other possibles: Midnight Family, Maiden, The Cave, Advocate
NSFC WINNERS NAMED
The National Society of Film Critics named their "Best Of" for 2019 on Saturday and here are the winners per The Hollywood Reporter (with TFF #46 in Bold.)
Best Picture: Parasite
Best Director: Greta Gerwig/Little Women
Best Actress: Mary Kay Place/Diane Best Actor: Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern/Marriage Story and Little Women
Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood Best Screenplay: Parasite Best Cinematography: Portrait of a Lady on Fire and Atlantics
Best Non-Fiction Film: Honeyland
TFF #46 films/performances that were runners-up:
Best Director: Bong Joon-ho/Parasite
Best Actor: Adam Driver/Marriage Story, Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems
Best Supporting Actor: Sang Kong-ho/Parasite
Here are the winners from last night's Golden Globe awards with films from TFF #44 in Bold.
Best Picture-Drama- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Frances McDormand/Three Billboards Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird Best Actor-Drama-Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor-Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
Best Screenplay-Three Billboards
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film: In the Fade Best Original Score-The Shape of Water
Best Song-This Is Me/The Greatest Showman
Takeaways: The HFPA really liked Three Billboards as it led all films with four wins. The Shape of Water and Lady Bird were the other two films that had multiple wins with two each. TFF#44 films scored 5 wins on the night.
What's it mean for Oscar? Three Billboards is maybe a more serious player than I thought. Otherwise, despite the fact that Oscar voting is going on right now, I'm not sure the results from last night will make a lot of difference.
PRODUCERS AND WRITERS GUILDS NOMINATE
Both the PGA (Producers Guild of America) and the WGA (Writers Guild of America) announced the nominees for their end of the year awards this week adding fuel to some Oscar fires and potentially signaling weakness for others.
The PGA announced 11 films as finalists for their award. That's the first time that has happened as a tie in voting created an 11th position for the nominations. PGA finalists are:
The Big Sick
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
Molly's Game
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Wonder Woman
The announcement was good news for The Big Sick, I Tonya, Molly's Game and Wonder Woman. Not so much for Darkest Hour or Phantom Thread.
Also this week the WGA announced its finalists for Best Original and Adapted Screenplay.
The nominees for Best Original Screenplay are:
The Big Sick
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Adapted Screenplay nominees are:
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound
It's worth remembering that some surefire Oscar contenders like Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri were not eligible for consideration under WGA rules.
The last big critics group to announce their choices for the Best of 2017 did so on Saturday. The National Society of Film Critics (NFSC) named Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird the Best Film of the year in an incredible close vote as it topped Jordan Peele's Get Out by a single ballot.
Lady Bird claimed four wins in all as Gerwig was singled out as Best Director and the writer of the Best Screenplay as well and Laurie Metcalf was named Best Supporting Actress.
Other TFF #44 films also were honored:
Sally Hawkins was named Best Actress for The Shape of Water (and Maudie-TFF #43)
Graduation was named Best Foreign Film and Faces Places was named Best Non-Fiction Film.
TFF #44 films only missed on three awards from the group.
Additionally, Saoirse Ronan was runner-up for Best Actress for Lady Bird. Michael Sthulbarg was a runner-up for Best Supporting Actor in part for The Shape of Water. Faces Places was a runner-up for Best Foreign Language Film.
Here's last night's open for the Golden Globes broadcast from Jimmy Fallon and a few friends (from YouTube)...
From last night's Golden Globe Awards:
Best Picture (Drama) Moonlight
Best Picture (Musical/Comedy) La La Land
Best Director: Damien Chazelle/La La Land
Best Actress (Drama) Isabelle Huppert/Elle
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy) Emma Stone/La La Land
Best Actor (Drama) Casey Affleck/Manchester
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy) Ryan Gosling/La La Land
Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis/Fences
Best Supporting Actor: Aaron Taylor-Johnson/Nocturnal Animals
Best Screenplay: La La Land
Best Foreign Film: Elle
Best Animated Film: Zootopia
Best Score: La La Land
Best Song: City of Stars/La La Land
La La Land set a new Golden Globes record winning seven Globes as it won every award it was nominated for. Moonlight was named Best Drama and Casey Affleck's win gave Telluride films nine Globes out of the 14 possible categories.
Biggest surprises were Taylor-Johnson's win over Mahershala Ali. I still think Ali is likely the front runner for the Oscar in that category. The other surprises were Elle related with its win for Foreign Film and, though to a lesser extent, Isabelle Huppert's Best Actress Drama win. Of course, La La Land sweeping in the seven categories it was nominated in was a surprise. I predicted it to win six. I expected Moonlight or Manchester to win the Screenplay Globe.
So does winning the Globe make any difference Oscar-wise? Probably only at the margins. Oscar voting goes on until Friday and maybe those who haven't voted will take a look at some of the films that won last night. But maybe not. If there is a boost or the Globes act as any kind of harbinger that would obviously benefit La La Land.
I have linked Golden Globe analysis and reportage here:
As we approach the announcement of Oscar nominations in just over two weeks (voting closes Friday) I thought we'd better assess the "Below the Line" categories including an update to Film Editing and Cinematography that were last posted here on Oct. 27th as well as first looks at 11 other categories.
I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
TFF #43 films are in Bold. For Film Editing and Cinematography, the film's previous position follows in parentheses.
FILM EDITING
1) La La Land (1) 2) Moonlight (4) 3) Arrival (3)
4) Hell or High Water (NR)
5) Hacksaw Ridge (10)
6) Manchester by the Sea (NR)
7) Silence (2) 8) Sully (9)
9) Fences (6)
10) Rogue One (NR)
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) La La Land (1)
2) Silence (2) 3) Arrival (3) 4) Moonlight (NR)
5) Nocturnal Animals (NR)
6) Lion (NR)
7) Jackie (5)
8) Live By Night (6)
9) Hail, Caesar (8)
10) Cafe Society (10)
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1) Toni Erdmann
2) The Salesman
3) Land of Mine
4) A Man Called Ove
5) My Life as a Zucchini
6) Tanna
7) Paradise
8) It's Only the End of the World
9) The King's Choice
DOCUMENTARY
1) O.J.: Made in America
2) The 13th
3) I Am Not Your Negro
4) Weiner
5) Cameraperson
6) Fire at Sea
7) Gleason
8) Life, Animated 9) The Ivory Game 10) The Eagle Huntress
ANIMATED FEATURE
1) Zootopia
2) Kubo and the Two Strings
3) Moana
4) The Red Turtle
5) My Life as a Zucchini
6) Finding Dory
7) Miss Hoksauki
8) The Little Prince
9) Sing
10) Your Name
PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) La La Land
2) Jackie
3) Silence
4) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 5) Arrival
6) Live By Night
7) Rules Don't Apply
8) Rogue One
9) Passengers
10) Hacksaw Ridge
ORIGINAL SCORE
1) La La Land
2) Lion 3) Moonlight
4) The BFG
5) Jackie
6) Rogue One
7) The Jungle Book
8) Florence Foster Jenkins
9) Hidden Figures
10) Passengers
ORIGINAL SONG
1) City of Stars/La La Land 2) Audition/La La Land
3) How Far I'll Go/Moana
4) Can't Stop the Felling/Trolls
5) Drive It Like You Stole It/Sing Street
6) I See Victory/Hidden Figures
7) Runnin'/Hidden Figures
8) We Know the Way/Moana
9) I'm Still Here/Miss Simone
10) Letter to the Free/The 13th
MAKEUP/HAIR
1) Deadpool
2) Star Trek Beyond
3) A Man Called Ove
4) Florence Foster Jenkins
5) The Dressmaker
6) Suicide Squad
7) Hail, Caesar
SOUND EDITING
1) Hacksaw Ridge
2) Rogue One 3) Arrival 4) Sully 5) La La Land
6) Deepwater Horizon
7) The Jungle Book
8) Patriot's Day
9) 13 Hours
10) Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
SOUND MIXING
1) La La Land
2) Hacksaw Ridge
3) Rogue One 4) Arrival
5) The Jungle Book
1) The Jungle Book
2) Rogue One
3) Doctor Strange 4) Arrival
5) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
6) Passengers
7) Captain America: Civil War
8) The BFG
9) Kubo and the Two Strings
10) Deepwater Horizon
COSTUMES
1) Jackie 2) La La Land
3) Florence Foster Jenkins
4) Fantastic Beasts
5) Silence
6) Love and Friendship
7) Allied
8) Live By Night
9) Rules Don't Apply
10) The Handmaiden
And the analysis...
If we combine these predictions with last week's Major Eight, here's what nomination morning looks like if The FAC is 100% accurate (which it won't be...think between 75%-80% accurate).
Telluride films:
La La Land will have 14 nominations: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Original Score, Original Song-twice, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Costumes. Of these, sound editing appears to be the most tenuous of possibilities but the remainder seem very solid. Should it get 14 nominations it would tie All About Eve and Titanic for the most nominated films ever.
Arrival would have a stunning and surprising nine nominations with a real shot at a tenth. Nominations would come for: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects. Amy Adams could also snag a Best Actress nomination (she was at #6 on The FAC for that category last week).
Moonlight should land eight nominations: Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography and Original Score.
Manchester by the Sea looks like it will land six nominations: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay. It could also land a Film Editing nomination.
Sully looks to land a nomination for Actor and Sound Editing and is still in play for possible nominations for Picture, and Adapted Screenplay. Sully could also be in the mix for Film Editing and Sound Mixing.
Toni Erdmann looks solid for a Best Foreign Language Film nomination.
Other TFF #43 films that could be announced on Jan. 24: Fire at Sea, The Ivory Game and The Eagle Huntress could be nominated for Best Documentary and Aaron Eckhart has a very outside shot at Best Supporting Actor for Bleed for This.
If it all happens Telluride films from 2016 would grab 40 nominations. That, I believe, would be a record and way above the average of 27 per year that we have seen since 2006. Those films would have another possible 10 nominations.
Additionally, there could well be nominations in some of the short form categories.
Lastly, if you believe, and I do, that the position of a film in the nomination charts indicates how the professional predictors think a category will go on Oscar night itself, then La La Land would win a stunning nine Oscars: Picture, Director, Actress, Film Editing, Cinematography, Song (City of Stars), Score, Production Design and Sound Mixing. That would put it in heady company as only Ben Hur, Titanic, Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (all with 11 wins) West Side Story (10) would have had more wins. La La would tie with The English Patient, Gigi and The Last Emperor. It would also be the most for a single film on Oscar night since LOTR:ROTK in 2003.
Moonlight would win two: Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay.
Manchester would win two: Actor and Adapted Screenplay.
Toni Erdmann would win Foreign Language.
That would have TFF films winning an amazing 14 of 21 feature categories.
The FAC will be updating categories in each post until Jan. 24th and the nominations announcement.
TELLURIDE FILMS DOMINATE THE NATIONAL SOCIETY OF FILM CRITICS
The National Society of Film Critics weighed in on Saturday as they voted on their choices for the best in film in 2016. TFF #43 films were well represented.
Moonlight won four awards including Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor and Cinematography. It was also a runner-up for Screenplay and Supporting Actress.
Manchester by the Sea was named winner in three categories: Best Actor, Supporting Actress and Screenplay. It was a runner-up for Picture, Director.
Toni Erdmann won as Best Foreign Film.
Isabelle Huppert was named Best Actress for Things to Come and Elle.
That means that TFF#43 films won eight and a half of the nine categories.
Additionally, La La Land was a runner up for Best Picture, Director and Cinematography.
Toni Erdmann's Sandra Huller was a runner-up for Best Actress and Things to Come was a runner-up for Best Foreign Film.
Complete coverage of the NSFC winners is here from:
The National Society of Film Critics handed The Coen Brothers' "Inside Llewyn Davis" a number of their awards yesterday. The critical recognition comes in the wake of a week in which the film was not recognized by either The Producers Guild nor The Writers Guild nominations.
The Directors Guild announces their nominees on Tuesday. That's the next major announcement could provide both a window to probable Oscar nominees and, perhaps, the last big push P.R. wise for films before voting for Oscar nominations ends. Nominations will be announced the morning of Jan. 16. Here are the awards announced by The NSFC yesterday and a link to analysis from HitFix/InContention and Awards Daily.
Picture: “Inside Llewyn Davis” (23)
Runners-up: “American Hustle” (17); “12 Years a Slave” (16); “Her” (16)
Director: Joel and Ethan Coen, “Inside Llewyn Davis” (25)
Runners-up: Alfonso Cuaron, “Gravity” (18); Steve McQueen, “12 Years a Slave”
(15) Actor: Oscar Isaac, “Inside Llewyn Davis” (28)
Runners-up: Chiwetel Ejiofor, “12 Years a Slave” (19); Robert Redford, “All Is
Lost” (12) Actress: Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine” (57)
Runners-up: Adele Exarchopoulos, “Blue Is the Warmest Color” (36); Julie Delpy,
“Before Midnight” (26) Supporting Actor: James Franco, “Spring Breakers”
(24)
Runners-up: Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club” (20); Barkhad Abdi, “Captain
Phillips” (14) Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, “American
Hustle” (54)
Runners-up: Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave” (38); Sally Hawkins, “Blue
Jasmine” (18); Lea Seydoux, “Blue Is the Warmest Color” (18) Screenplay: Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke and Julie
Delpy, “Before Midnight” (29)
Runners-up: Joel and Ethan Coen, “Inside Llewyn Davis” (26); Eric Warren Singer
and David O. Russell, “American Hustle” (18) Foreign-language film: “Blue Is the Warmest Color”
(27)
Runners-up: “A Touch of Sin” (21); “The Great Beauty” (15)
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