Latest Take from Toronto Reveals / Anything From Sundance? / No Jack for Toni

Good Thursday TFF fans...

LATEST TAKE FROM TORONTO REVEALS

The Toronto International Film Festival rolled out a significant number of additional films that they were adding to the various slates that make up their festival.  Of course that announcement provided us with new information about films that are probably headed to Telluride and, just as importantly, which films are not.

Added to the list of probable films for Telluride are Joel Edgerton's Boy Erased and Cristina Gallego and Ciro Guerra's Birds of Passage.  Additionally, Mike Leigh's Peterloo is now all but confirmed for TFF #45 as well.

Boy Erased is listed by TIFF as an International Premiere suggesting that its first public screening will be at T-ride.  Both Birds of Passage and Peterloo are labeled Canadian Premieres.

Films that look to be removed from the Telluride possibilities list because they were categorized as World, North American or International Premieres that have already screened in their country of origin are (some of these were confirmations of deductions we'd already made:

Paul Greengrass' 22 July

Peter Farrelly's Green Book

David Mackenzie's Outlaw King

Sebastian Lelio's Gloria Bell

Thomas Vintenburg's Kursk

Jonah Hill's Mid 90s

Florian Henckel Von Donnersmarck's Never LookAway

Jafar Panahi's Three Faces

Jia Zhang-ke's  Ash Is the Purest White

Paolo Sorrentino's Loro

Jean Luc-Godard's The Image Book

Nuri Bilge Ceylan's The Wild Pear Tree

Christian Petzold's Transit

Sergei Loznitsa's Donbass

Luis Ortega's The Angel

Ali Abassi's Border-which I had thought might be bound for Telluride after that L.A. Fest classified it as a "California Premiere".  Looks like I was wrong.

I have to say that I am truly pleased that Boy Erased is going to make it to The SHOW.  It will be near the top pf my list of "must-sees" for Labor Day weekend.  Actually, that list is going to be too long to get in before the weekend is over.

Here's the TIFF rundown of Tuesday's additions from Indiewire.

ANYTHING FROM SUNDANCE?

I'm relatively confident that the normal practice of not programming films that played at Sundance will hold true this year.  I have also thought that the film most likely to make the very rare Sundance/Telluride double play that it would probably be Paul Dano's Wildlife.

However, I have overlooked the possibility that it could be Tamara Jenkins Private Life. 

Jenkins last film was 2007's Savages which was part of what I still regard as the strongest TFF lineup in the 12 years I've been going.  

So...I doubt that it plays, but if there is a Sundance/Telluride crossover, Private Life could be it.  Netflix produced the film and, as many of you know, Netflix is going to be a substantial presence at this year's fest.  Their recent decision to give the film a theatrical release on Oct. 5th might be an indicator that it could happen.

Private Life stars Paul Giamatti and Kathryn Hahn.  

NO JACK FOR TONI

One of the big hits of Cannes and Telluride in 2016 was Maren Ade's Toni Erdmann.  I, myself, was a bit lukewarm about it BUT...I remember telling somebody (might have been Award Circuit's Mark Johnson...maybe...maybe not) after the screening I saw that I'd be glad to sign on to write the script for the Americanized version because I was already that sure that such a thing would come to pass.

And it seemed to be so when it was announced that would happen with Lisa Cholodenko directing Kristen Wiig and Oscar winner and legend Jack Nicholson reprising the roles created by Sandra Huller and Peter Simonisheck.

However, that dream partially came apart yesterday as we discovered that Nicholson is out.  The 80+ year old actor will not be a part of the project after all.

Cholodenko and Wiig appear to still be on board and the search is reportedly on to cast a replacement for Jack.

Here's the story from The Wrap.

That's your MTFB for this Thursday.  More to come tomorrow including a new Ten (20) Bets for TFF #45.

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More Predicted Oscar Winners from The FAC / Oscar Nominees for Cinematography and Film Editing / Big Talk from Directors / Could We See TONY Erdmann at a Future Telluride?

Welcome to Thursday...

MORE PREDICTED OSCAR WINNERS FROM THE FAC

On Monday, The FAC took its first stab at predicting the winners of the Oscar in 12 categories.  In today's post I continue down that road with a look at six additional categories: Original Score, Original Song, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects.



As always The FAC uses the published predictions of the following experts to derive its picks:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Telluride #43 films are in Bold.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) La La Land
2) Moonlight
3) Lion
4) Jackie
5) Passengers

Comment:  Looks like La La's to lose.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) City of Stars/La La Land
2) How Far I'll Go/Moana
3) Audition/La La Land
4) Can't Stop the Feeling/Trolls
5) The Empty Chair/Jim: The James Foley Story

Comment: I still think the Moana song could win this despite The FAC metric.


PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) La La Land
2) Arrival
3) Fantastic Beasts
4) Hail. Caesar
5) Passengers

Comment: La La Land seems to be the prohibitive favorite.


BEST SOUND EDITING

1) Hacksaw Ridge
2) La La Land
3) Arrival
4) Deepwater Horizon
5) Sully

Comment:  This category could tell the tale in as far as La La Land's quest to tie or break the record for most Oscar wins ever.  The record is 11.   La La is nominated for 14 but at the maximum can only win 13 because of the double Best Song nominations.  Hacksaw is a solid favorite but certainly doesn't have a lock on the trophy.

BEST SOUND MIXING

1) La La Land
2) Hacksaw Ridge
3) Arrival
4) Rogue One
5) 13 Hours

Comment;  Back to solid La La Land ground here.


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) The Jungle Book
2) Rogue One
3) Doctor Strange
4) Deepwater Horizon
5) Kubo and the Two Strings

Comment:  Looks solid for Jungle Book.


In these six categories La La Land is leading for four Oscars and Hacksaw Ridge and The Jungle Book would get one each.  Added to Monday's totals, The FAC has La La Land at eight wins with Moonlight at two and Fences at two.   Manchester by the Sea would be the other TFF #43 film with a win.

I'll have The FAC's look at the final six categories on Monday.



OSCARS NOMINEES FOR CINEMATOGRAPHY AND FILM EDITING

Here are a couple pf profiles of the cinematographers from La La Land and Moonlight both of whom are Oscar nominated for their work:

About DP Linus Sandgren of La La Land from Indiewire.

And focusing on editor Joi McMillon who cut Moonlight also from Indiewire.



BIG TALK FROM DIRECTORS (FOUR FROM TFF #43)



The Film Stage posted a 2 and 1/2 hour round table of this year's DGA nominees: Chazelle, Jenkins, Lonergan and Villeneuve who were featured at TFF #43 as well as Garth Davis of Lion.  That massive discussion can be found  Here from YouTube:

The Film Stage post is here.




AND FINALLY...COULD WE SEE TONY ERDMANN AT A FUTURE TELLURIDE? (yes, I spelled it Ton-y on purpose because I'll bet they Americanize it that way)

Image via ComingSoon.net

Breaking news the last two days:  There will apparently be an American remake of Maren Ade's Toni Erdmann to star Jack Nicholson and Kristen Wiig.  Reports say the project is at Paramount and is looking for a writer and director.

You have to wonder if a film that will almost certainly be Nicholson;s last major role might not be considered for a spot at T-ride which would be both weird and kind of fitting as the original Toni Erdmann screened for the first time in North America at last fall's soiree.

Lots of coverage here for the announcement of the new version:

Variety,  The Film Stage  and Hollywood Elsewhere.





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Updates for Oscar / Sundance Sails into the Sunset / Jenkins on Moonlight

Welcome to Thursday and another day on this cinematic road...


UPDATES FOR OSCAR

We are a week removed from the announcement of nominations for the 89th Academy Awards and, as you might expect, Oscar prognosticators are beginning to offer their opinions regarding what performers and films will now actually win the statues in 3 -plus weeks.  The ceremony happens on Feb. 26th.

The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg has a first pass at predicted winners.

Scott currently has Damien Chazelle's La La Land still in front to win despite the success of Hidden Figures at last weekend's Screen Actors Guilds awards.  Additionally, Feinberg says La La Land will also win: Direction (Chazelle), Actress (Stone), Cinematography, Costumes, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song (City of Stars), Production Design, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing for a total of  11 Oscars. Personally, I'm not as bullish on La La Land's chances to get to that total.

Feinberg also currently has TFF #43 films winning in a few other places on Oscar night.

He has Moonlight winning Supporting Actor (Ali) and Adapted Screenplay.

He has Manchester by the Sea winning Original Screenplay but now favors Denzel Washington/Fences  over Manchester's Casey Affleck for Best Actor.

A few other notes.  Feinberg favors Asghar Farhadi's The Salesman in the Foreign Language category over what has been regarded as the front runner for many months and that's TFF #43 and Maren Ade's Toni Erdmann.

Feinberg doesn't mention it and I have been reluctant to mention it as well, but I have wondered if there might be a surge for The Salesman in light of the Trump administration's  Muslim ban and Farhadi's announced intention to not attend the Oscar ceremony.  I think that's a very real possibility and it seems that Feinberg may be thinking that as well.

Among the Short Film categories, Feinberg has The White Helmets winning Best Short Doc.  It also played TFF last Labor Day.

All told, Feinberg has Telluride films winning 15 of the 24 Oscar categories.


Additionally, Variety's head Oscar guru, Kristopher Tapley, also has an initial pass at winners up at his In Contention section of that publication/website.  His take:

He has La La Land winning Best Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song (City of Stars), Production Design and sound Mixing.  Total: 11

Moonlight winning: Supporting Actor with Ali and Adapted Screenplay.

Manchester winning: Best Actor for Affleck.

Tapley has Toni Erdmann winning Best Foreign Language Film bit doesn't have any TFF #43 films picking up any Oscar hardware for the Shorts categories.

His Telluride total is 15.

Check all of Tapley's predictions here.


Meanwhile, the gang at Awards Watch led by Erik Anderson has their first wave of picks for winners up as well.   You can see their complete list and tally here.

Awards Watch predicts that La La Land will win Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Original Song (City of Stars), Sound Mixing and maybe Film Editing...based on AW's nomination predictions for that category.  Total for La La Land according to AW: 11

Moonlight is picked for Best Supporting Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay.

Manchester by the Sea's Casey Affleck is favored over Denzel for Best Actor

Other TFF #43 films favored by AW: Toni Erdmann for Foreign Language and The White Helmets for Best Short Doc.

The AW Oscar total for Telluride is 16.


SUNDANCE SAILS INTO THE SUNSET

The Sundance Film Festival closed last weekend and that's always at least a little bit interesting.  For years it's seemed like there are always rumors that one of more Sundance film swill end up on the Telluride program even though that "rule" about T-ride only programming films that have not yet screened in North America.

We know that rumors floated early this time last year that Fox Searchlight was going to push hard to get Nate Parker's Birth of a Nation into T-ride after spending $17+ million bucks.  We also know that didn't pan out almost certainly due to the PR swirl and negative publicity up regarding Parker's past.

BUT...Manchester by the Sea and The Eagle Huntress both made the TFF #43 list after having bowed at Sundance marking, at least in my experience, the first time that two films were programmed that bucked the "rule".  I have noted on a number of occasions that The Savages did the same in 2007 as did An Education in 2009.  Sembene! did in 2015.

I think we have to wonder if the 2016 presence of two Sundance titles indicates a growing willingness to program a hot Sundance title or two from now on.

It might also be noted that both Manchester and Eagle did NOT play Cannes after their bow at Sundance.

So, looking at this year's Sundance crop, can we deduce any films that might fit the mold to go to Telluride?

I took a look at the films that earned Sundance honors and critical acclaim as well as what films sold to which distributors and finally, the directors.  Keep in mind that Manchester ended up at Amazon/Roadside Attractions and Eagle Huntress  which was distributed by Sony Pictures Classics.

Indiewire's Anne Thompson posted a story this week assessing the films of Sundance in the context of the 2017 awards season.  Zack Sharf, also of Indiewire, posted and updated a running list of the acquisitions for the fest.  So, I combined the two...

Call Me By My Name - Dir: Luca Guadagnino-Sony Pictures Classics
The Big Sick- Dir: Michael Showalter- Amazon (and likely Roadside Attractions)
Mudbound- Dir: Dee Rees- Netflix
Novitiate- Dir: Margaret Betts- Sony Pictures Classics
The Hero- Dir: Brett Haley- The Orchard

Documentaries:
City of Ghosts- Dir: Matthew Heineman- Amazon
Icarus- Dir: Bryan Fogel- Netflix
An Inconvenient Sequel: Dir- Bonni Cohen and Jon Shenk- Paramount
Chasing Coral- Dir: Jeff Orlowski- Netflix

 It's also worth noting that A24 has the distribution for A Ghost Story from director David Lowery.

Looking at the combined lists, I can't find any single film that seems head and shoulders a likely Sundance/Telluride crossover.  None of the directors have a feature TFF track record.


JENKINS ON MOONLIGHT

I have added a couple of articles that feature Moonlight writer/director Barry Jenkins talking about the making of the eight time Oscar nominated film that is widely regarded as the only real threat to steal Best Picture from La La Land.  Here they are:

From the Film Society of Lincoln Center

From The Playlist


That's all for this Thursday.  Have a great weekend...

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Telluride Sets a Record: Oscar Nominations with a Bit of Commentary / Frantz Leads in France / Now What?

Good Thursday to you...

TELLURIDE SETS A RECORD: OSCAR NOMINATIONS WITH A BIT OF COMMENTARY

Telluride #43 film nominations are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

BEST DIRECTION

Damien Chazelle/La La Land

Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge

Barry Jenkins/Moonlight

Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea

Denis Villeneuve/Arrival

BEST ACTRESS

Isabelle Huppert/Elle
Ruth Negga/Loving

Natalie Portman/Jackie

Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins

Emma Stone/La La Land

BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea

Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling/La La Land

Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic

Denzel Washington/Fences

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Viola Davis/Fences

Naomie Harris/Moonlight

Nicole Kidman/Lion

Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali/Moonlight

Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel/Lion

Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Arrival

Fences

Hidden Figures
Lion

Moonlight

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

20^th Century Women

Hell or High Water

La La Land

The Lobster

Manchester by the Sea

FILM EDITING

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

La La Land

Moonlight

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Arrival

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Silence

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Land of Mine

A Man Called Ove

Tanna

Toni Erdmann

The Salesman

ANIMATED FEATURE

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

My Life as a Zucchini

The Red Turtle

Zootopia

DOCUMENTARY

13^th

Fire at Sea

I am Not Your Negro

Life, Animated

OJ: Made in America

ORIGINAL SCORE

Jackie

La La Land

Lion
Moonlight

Passengers

ORIGINAL SONG

Audition/La La Land

Can’t Stop the Feeling/Trolls

City of Stars/La La Land

How Far I’ll Go/Moana

The Empty Chair/James Foley Story

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Arrival

Fantastic Beasts

Hail, Caesar

La La Land

Passengers

COSTUMES

Allied

Fantastic Beasts

Florence Foster Jenkins

Jackie

La La Land

MAKEUP/HAIR

A Man Called Ove

Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

SOUND EDITING

Arrival

Deepwater Horizon

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Sully

SOUND MIXING
13 Hours

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Rogue One

VISUAL EFFECTS
Deepwater Horizon

Doctor Strange

The Jungle Book

Kubo and the Two Strings

Rogue One

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode
Ennemis Interiuers
Le Femme et le TVG

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The White Helmets
Joe's Violin
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Watani: My Homeland

ANIMATED SHORT
Piper
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear and Cider Cigarettes
Pearl

Comment:

La La Land leads all films with 14  nominations

Arrival had 8

Moonlight had 8

Manchester by the Sea had 6

The total of "Telluride" nominations was 42 which makes this the most Oscar-y year for Telluride since I've been keeping track and probably since the beginning of the fest.

Oh, and it almost certainly means that on Oscar night that Best Picture will have come through Telluride once again continuing a trend that has been true every year, except for 2009. since Slumdog Millionaire in 2008.

08-Slumdog
09- The Hurt Locker
10- The King's Speech
11- The Artist
12- Argo
13- 12 Years a Slave
14- Birdman
15- Spotlight

Will/Can La La Land surpass Slumdog's haul of 8 Oscars?  It's possible.  I wrote last week that, should it hit the 14 nomination plateau (tying the all time Oscar record along with Titanic and All About Eve) that, at least at that moment, The FAC was pointing toward nine wins for the film.

Early favorites for Oscar include: Actress: Stone, Actor: Affleck, Supporting Actress: Davis, Supporting Actor: Ali

Other favorites by film:

La La Land: Picture, Direction, Film Editing, Cinematography, Score, Song, Production Design and Sound Mixing (Total -9)

Moonlight: Adapted Screenplay (Total-2)

Manchester by the Sea-Original Screenplay (2)

Toni Erdmann: Foreign Language

The White Helmets: Short Doc


For non-Telluride films:

Zootopia: Animated Feature

OJ: Made in America: Documentary

Jackie: Costumes

Florence Foster Jenkins: Makeup/Hair

Hacksaw Ridge: Sound Editing

The Jungle Book: Visual Effects

Silent Nights: Live Action Short

Piper: Animated Short



Other nominations for TFF #43 films came individually for Sully, Toni Erdmann, Fire at Sea and shorts: The White Helmets, Extremis and 4.1 Miles.

The FAC went 100 of 122 for an 82% rate of correct predictions.  It was perfect in Best Picture (9/9), Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Animated Feature and Costumes. In categories where The FAC missed one or more nominees the sixth film listed made the grade in nine categories: Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Foreign Language Film, Sound Editing, Visual Effects, Live Action Short, Animated Short, Makeup/Hair (actually that's the #4 spot) and Production Design.

The biggest surprises to me were the Amy Adams miss in Best Actress and also the miss by Inner Workings in Animated Short.  I was also surprised that Passengers popped up in Original Score and Production Design.

I have linked analysis from the experts here:

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Eric Kohn/Indiwire

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Eric Kohn and Anne Thompson/Screen Talk (podcast)

FRANTZ LEADS IN FRANCE

The French version of The Oscar...The Cesar nominations were announced this week and TFF #43 film Frantz led the way with 11 nominations including Best Picture.  Frantz was tied for the most nominations by Elle.  Among Elle's 11 nominations was a Best Actress nod for past Telluride tribute recipient Isabelle Huppert.  Huppert was featured at last September's fest with with a screening of Things to Come.

Kenneth Lonergan's 6 time Oscar nominated Manchester by the Sea was nominated for Best Foreign Film.  Both La La Land and Moonlight weren't eligible for that category as they didn't or won't open in France until after the first of the year.  Other TFF # films nominated for Foreign Language Film were Graduation and Toni Erdmann.  Fire at Sea was nominated for Best Documentary.

Complete Cesar coverage is here from Awards Watch.

NOW WHAT?

Well...the Oscar nominations are in and as you can see above, it was a very successful year for Telluride in that context.  Since the fest closed on Labor Day, thus space has been largely focused on the release of the films that played the fest and the Oscar prospects for them.  Now we are on to the Oscar #89 end game over the next month the culminates with the ceremony itself on Feb. 26th.  As I have done in the past, The FAC will continue to handicap the field right up until then.  

But it's also time to begin looking forward.  

The Sundance fest has moved past its half way mark and the presence at TFF this last year of Manchester by the Sea and The Eagle Huntress, which both played at Sundance last year, makes me wonder if that situation, which admittedly has been very rare in the past, might be a little less rare going forward.  This would mean that we might have to pay a little more attention to the films that make waves in Utah.

When the Oscars conclude, there will be a slew of Oscar #90 speculative pieces.  We'll need to examine those.  The Berlin Fest looms next month.  That is often a source of a few films that make their way to T-ride and Cannes speculation will begin to ramp up ahead of its May date.  We'll need to pay attention to the critical response and awards as a way of sniffing out potential Telluride choices.

Once Cannes is completed, we get into serious Telluride speculation and prediction and look for clues, rumors and signs from the media as well as what we can discern from what's known or suspected about Toronto, Venice and New York's Fests.

That's where we'll be going right up to Labor Day weekend.  Join the ride!

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The Final Film Awards Clearinghouse (FAC) for Oscar #89 / Final Predictions from Oscar Experts

Hello Monday...Tomorrow brings the nominations for the 89th Academy Awards.  The FAC Final is here for you.

Below are the final computations for the Film Awards Clearinghouse for 2016.  Some reminders...

I think this my ninth year to attempt some level of this and I have found that The FAC metric will be somewhere between 75-80% accurate today.  In categories that The FAC misses going 5 for 5, about 75% of the time, the nominee that "steals" the spot is the #6 ranked film/performer.  The most troubling categories seem to always be the Short form films as well as Original Score and Song.


THE FINAL FAC FOR OSCAR #89

As always, I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.



BEST PICTURE

1) La La Land (1)
2) Moonlight (2)
3) Manchester by the Sea (3)
4) Arrival (4)
5) Lion (6)
6) Hell or High Water (5)
7) Hidden Figures (8)
8) Hacksaw Ridge (7)

9) Fences (9)
10) Nocturnal Animals (10)
11) Silence (11)
12) Loving (12)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Damien Chazelle/La La Land (1)
2) Barry Jenkins/Moonlight (2)
3) Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester (3)
4) Denis Villeneuve/Arrival (4)
5) Garth Davis/Lion (5)

6) Martin Scorsese/Silence (8)
7) David Mackenzie/Hell or High Water (7)
8) Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge (6)
9) Denzel Washington/Fences (9)
10) Tom Ford/Nocturnal Animals (NR)


BEST ACTRESS

1) Emma Stone/La La Land (1)
2) Natalie Portman/Jackie (2)
3) Amy Adams/Arrival (3)
4) Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins (5)
5) Isabelle Huppert/Elle (4)

6) Annette Bening/20th Century Women (6)
7) Ruth Negga/Loving (7)
8) Taraji P. Henson/Hidden Figures (8)
9) Emily Blunt/The Girl on the Train (10)
10) Jessica Chastain/Miss Sloane (9)

BEST ACTOR

1) Casey Affleck/Manchester (1)
2) Denzel Washington/Fences (2)
3) Ryan Gosling/La La Land (3)
4) Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge (4)
5) Viggo Mortensen/Capt. Fantastic (5)

6) Joel Edgerton/Loving (7)
7) Tom Hanks/Sully (6)
8) Jake Gyllenhaal/Nocturnal Animals (NR)
9) Sunny Pawar/Lion (NR)
10) Andrew Garfield/Silence (8)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Viola Davis/Fences (1)
2) Michelle Williams/Manchester (2)
3) Naomie Harris/Moonlight (3)
4) Nicole Kidman/Lion (4)
5) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures (5)

6) Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women (6)
7) Janelle Monae/Hidden Figures (7)
8) Molly Shannon/Other People (8)
9) Lily Gladstone/Certain Women (10)
10) Felicity Jones/A Monster Calls (10)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (1)
2) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water (2)
3) Dev Patel/Lion (3)
4) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins (4)
5) Lucas Hedges/Manchester (5)

6) Aaron Taylor-Johnson/Nocturnal Animals (9)
7) Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures (7)
8) Ben Foster/Hell or High Water (6)
9) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals (8)
10) Issey Ogata/Silence (10)


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Moonlight (1)
2) Arrival (2)
3) Hidden Figures (5)
4) Lion (4)
5) Fences (3)

6) Nocturnal Animals (6)
7) Loving (7)
8) Hacksaw Ridge (8)
9) Silence (9)
10) Deadpool (10)


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Manchester by the Sea (1)
2) La La Land (2)
3) Hell or High Water (3)
4) The Lobster (4)
5) Captain Fantastic (6)

6) 20th Century Women (5)
7) Zootopia (8)
8) Jackie (7)
9) I, Daniel Blake (9)
10) Toni Erdmann (NR)



FILM EDITING

1) La La Land (1)
2) Moonlight (2)
3) Arrival (3)
4) Hacksaw Ridge (5)
5) Manchester by the Sea (6)

6) Hell or High Water (4)
7) Lion (NR)
8) Nocturnal Animals (NR)
9) Silence (7)
10) Rogue One (10)



CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) La La Land (1)
2) Arrival (3)
3) Moonlight (4)
4) Silence (2)
5) Lion (6)

6) Nocturnal Animals (5)
7) Hell or High Water (NR)
8) Jackie (7)
9) Live by Night (8)
10) Hail, Caesar (9)



BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Toni Erdmann (1)
2) Land of Mine (3)
3) The Salesman (2)
4) A Man Called Ove (4)
5) My Life as a Zucchini (5)

6) Tanna (6)
7) Paradise (7)
8) It's Only the End of the World (8)
9) The King's Choice (9)


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Zootopia (1)
2) Kubo and the Two Strings (2)
3) Moana (3)
4) The Red Turtle (4)
5) My Life as a Zucchini (5)

6) Finding Dory (6)
7) Miss Hoksauki (7)
8) Sing (9)
9) The Little Prince (8)
10) Your Name (10)

BEST DOCUMENTARY

1) OJ: Made in America (1)
2) 13th (2)
3) I Am Not Your Negro (3)
4) Cameraperson (5)
5) Life Animated (8)

6) Weiner (4)
7) Fire at Sea (6)
8) Gleason (7)
9) The Ivory Game (9)
10) Tower (NR)



ORIGINAL SCORE

1) La La Land (1)
2) Moonlight (3)
3) Lion (2)
4) The BFG (4)
5) Jackie (5)

6) Rogue One (6)
7) Nocturnal Animals (NR)
8) Hacksaw Ridge (NR)
9) Kubo and the Two Strings (NR)
10) Florence Foster Jenkins (8)

ORIGINAL SONG

1) City of Stars/La La Land (1)
2) How Far I'll Go/Moana (3)
3) Audition/ La La Land (2)
4) Can't Stop the Feeling/Trolls (4)
5) Drive It Like You Stole It/Sing Street (5)

6) Runnin'/Hidden Figures (7)
7) Faith/Sing (NR)
8) Rules Don't Apply/Rules Don't Apply (NR)
9) Letter to the Free/13th (10)
10) I'm Still Here/Miss Sharon Jones (9)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) La La Land (1)
2) Fantastic Beasts And Where to Find Them (4)
3) Arrival (5)
4) Jackie (2)
5) Silence (3)

6) Hail, Caesar (NR)
7) Nocturnal Animals (NR)
8) The Handmaiden (NR)
9) Hacksaw Ridge (10)
10) Rogue One (8)


BEST COSTUMES

1) Jackie (1)
2) Florence Foster Jenkins (3)
3) La La Land (2)
4) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (4)
5) Allied (7)

6) The Dressmaker (NR)
7) Silence (5)
8) Hidden Figures (NR)
9) Hail, Caesar (NR)
10) Love and Friendship (6)

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Florence Foster Jenkins (4)
2) Deadpool (1)
3) Star Trek Beyond (2)

4) A Man Called Ove (3)
5) Hail, Caesar (7)
6) The Dressmaker (5)
7) Suicide Squad (6)

BEST SOUND EDITING

1) Hacksaw Ridge (1)
2) Arrival (3)
3) Rogue One (2)
4) Deepwater Horizon (6)
5) La La Land (5)

6) Sully (4)
7) The Jungle Book (7)
8) Deadpool (NR)
9) Doctor Strange (NR)
10) Patriot's Day (8)


BEST SOUND MIXING

1) La La Land (1)
2) Hacksaw Ridge (2)
3) Rogue One (3)
4) Arrival (4)
5) Sully (6)

6) Deepwater Horizon (7)
7) Doctor Strange (NR)
8) The Jungle Book (5)
9) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (NR)
10) Patriot's Day (8)


VISUAL EFFECTS

1) The Jungle Book (1)
2) Rogue One (2)
3) Doctor Strange (3)
4) Arrival (4)
5) Fantastic Beats and Where to Find Them (5)

6) Kubo and the Two Strings (9)
7) Deepwater Horizon (10)
8) Passengers (6)
9) Captain America: Civil War (7)
10) The BFG (8)


LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Silent Nights (1)
2) Nocturne in Black (2)
3) Sing (5)
4) Bon Voyage (4)
5) Graffiti (3)

6) Timecode (6)
7) The Way of Tea (10)
8) Ennemis Interiuers (7)
9) The Rifle... (8)
10) Le Femme et le TVG (9)

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) The White Helmets (2)
2) Joe's Violin (1)
3) Extremis (3)
4) The Mute's House (4)
5) 4.1 Miles (5)

6) Close Ties (6)
7) Watani: My Homeland (7)
8) Frame 394 (8)
9) Brillo Pad (3 Cents Off) (10)
10) The Other Side of Home (9)

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Inner Workings (1)
2) Piper (2)
3) The Head Vanishes (3)
4) Blind Vaysha (4)
5) Borrowed Time (7)

6) Pear and Cider Cigarettes (6)
7) Pearl (5)
8) Happy End (9)
9) Once Upon a Line (8)
10) Under Your Fingers (10)


If The FAC is 100% accurate (and remember, it won't be):

La La Land will lead all films and tie the record for most nominations with 14: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Score, Song-twice, Production Design, Costumes, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.  It seems most vulnerable in the Sound Editing category.

Arrival would have the second largest number of nominations with 10: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects.  Arrival is very vulnerable in a number of categories so 10 nominations may not be realistic.

Moonlight would have the third most nominations with eight: Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography and Score.

Manchester would tie (with Lion) for the fourth most nominations with seven: Best Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Film Editing,

Other TFF nominations would come for Toni Erdmann for Best Foreign Language Film and Sully for Sound Mixing.  Toni Erdmann could also have a shot at an Original Screenplay nomination and Sully could compete for nominations for Best Actor and Sound Editing.

Five short subject films that played T-ride could be nominated.  For Doc short: The White Helmets, Extremis and 4.1 Miles.  For Animated Short: Inner Workings and for Live Action Short: Nocturne in Black.

In total TFF #43 films (again, only of The FAC hits 100%) would earn 46 nominations which would be the most since I started keeping track and (without actually doing the research into years prior to 2008) the most in the festival's history.  Additionally, the fest films could be in play for an additional three nominations.

Realistically, my guess is the fest ends up at 39 total nominations.

Other non-Telluride films with multiple nominations:

Lion-7
Hacksaw Ridge-5
Jackie-4
Florence Foster Jenkins-4
Fences-3
Hell or High Water-3
Hidden Figures-3
Fantastic Beasts-3
Rogue One-3
Captain Fantastic-2
Silence-2
My Life as a Zucchini-2
Moana-2

Now, to wait for tomorrow morning...


FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM...

Here are links to the Final Oscar nomination predictions from Oscar prognosticating experts:

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch (podcast)

Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience

Steve Pond/The Wrap

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit (podcast)

Glenn Whipp/The Los Angeles Times

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Nicole Sperling/Entertainment Weekly


I'll update the experts predictions throughout the day today to add other experts of if any of these that are posted, change their minds,

ALSO!!!  I am planning to post nominees HERE TOMORROW after the announcement with, perhaps, a bit of commentary.  I'll do some fuller analysis in Thursday's regularly scheduled post.


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