Updates for Oscar / Sundance Sails into the Sunset / Jenkins on Moonlight

Welcome to Thursday and another day on this cinematic road...


UPDATES FOR OSCAR

We are a week removed from the announcement of nominations for the 89th Academy Awards and, as you might expect, Oscar prognosticators are beginning to offer their opinions regarding what performers and films will now actually win the statues in 3 -plus weeks.  The ceremony happens on Feb. 26th.

The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg has a first pass at predicted winners.

Scott currently has Damien Chazelle's La La Land still in front to win despite the success of Hidden Figures at last weekend's Screen Actors Guilds awards.  Additionally, Feinberg says La La Land will also win: Direction (Chazelle), Actress (Stone), Cinematography, Costumes, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song (City of Stars), Production Design, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing for a total of  11 Oscars. Personally, I'm not as bullish on La La Land's chances to get to that total.

Feinberg also currently has TFF #43 films winning in a few other places on Oscar night.

He has Moonlight winning Supporting Actor (Ali) and Adapted Screenplay.

He has Manchester by the Sea winning Original Screenplay but now favors Denzel Washington/Fences  over Manchester's Casey Affleck for Best Actor.

A few other notes.  Feinberg favors Asghar Farhadi's The Salesman in the Foreign Language category over what has been regarded as the front runner for many months and that's TFF #43 and Maren Ade's Toni Erdmann.

Feinberg doesn't mention it and I have been reluctant to mention it as well, but I have wondered if there might be a surge for The Salesman in light of the Trump administration's  Muslim ban and Farhadi's announced intention to not attend the Oscar ceremony.  I think that's a very real possibility and it seems that Feinberg may be thinking that as well.

Among the Short Film categories, Feinberg has The White Helmets winning Best Short Doc.  It also played TFF last Labor Day.

All told, Feinberg has Telluride films winning 15 of the 24 Oscar categories.


Additionally, Variety's head Oscar guru, Kristopher Tapley, also has an initial pass at winners up at his In Contention section of that publication/website.  His take:

He has La La Land winning Best Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song (City of Stars), Production Design and sound Mixing.  Total: 11

Moonlight winning: Supporting Actor with Ali and Adapted Screenplay.

Manchester winning: Best Actor for Affleck.

Tapley has Toni Erdmann winning Best Foreign Language Film bit doesn't have any TFF #43 films picking up any Oscar hardware for the Shorts categories.

His Telluride total is 15.

Check all of Tapley's predictions here.


Meanwhile, the gang at Awards Watch led by Erik Anderson has their first wave of picks for winners up as well.   You can see their complete list and tally here.

Awards Watch predicts that La La Land will win Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Original Song (City of Stars), Sound Mixing and maybe Film Editing...based on AW's nomination predictions for that category.  Total for La La Land according to AW: 11

Moonlight is picked for Best Supporting Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay.

Manchester by the Sea's Casey Affleck is favored over Denzel for Best Actor

Other TFF #43 films favored by AW: Toni Erdmann for Foreign Language and The White Helmets for Best Short Doc.

The AW Oscar total for Telluride is 16.


SUNDANCE SAILS INTO THE SUNSET

The Sundance Film Festival closed last weekend and that's always at least a little bit interesting.  For years it's seemed like there are always rumors that one of more Sundance film swill end up on the Telluride program even though that "rule" about T-ride only programming films that have not yet screened in North America.

We know that rumors floated early this time last year that Fox Searchlight was going to push hard to get Nate Parker's Birth of a Nation into T-ride after spending $17+ million bucks.  We also know that didn't pan out almost certainly due to the PR swirl and negative publicity up regarding Parker's past.

BUT...Manchester by the Sea and The Eagle Huntress both made the TFF #43 list after having bowed at Sundance marking, at least in my experience, the first time that two films were programmed that bucked the "rule".  I have noted on a number of occasions that The Savages did the same in 2007 as did An Education in 2009.  Sembene! did in 2015.

I think we have to wonder if the 2016 presence of two Sundance titles indicates a growing willingness to program a hot Sundance title or two from now on.

It might also be noted that both Manchester and Eagle did NOT play Cannes after their bow at Sundance.

So, looking at this year's Sundance crop, can we deduce any films that might fit the mold to go to Telluride?

I took a look at the films that earned Sundance honors and critical acclaim as well as what films sold to which distributors and finally, the directors.  Keep in mind that Manchester ended up at Amazon/Roadside Attractions and Eagle Huntress  which was distributed by Sony Pictures Classics.

Indiewire's Anne Thompson posted a story this week assessing the films of Sundance in the context of the 2017 awards season.  Zack Sharf, also of Indiewire, posted and updated a running list of the acquisitions for the fest.  So, I combined the two...

Call Me By My Name - Dir: Luca Guadagnino-Sony Pictures Classics
The Big Sick- Dir: Michael Showalter- Amazon (and likely Roadside Attractions)
Mudbound- Dir: Dee Rees- Netflix
Novitiate- Dir: Margaret Betts- Sony Pictures Classics
The Hero- Dir: Brett Haley- The Orchard

Documentaries:
City of Ghosts- Dir: Matthew Heineman- Amazon
Icarus- Dir: Bryan Fogel- Netflix
An Inconvenient Sequel: Dir- Bonni Cohen and Jon Shenk- Paramount
Chasing Coral- Dir: Jeff Orlowski- Netflix

 It's also worth noting that A24 has the distribution for A Ghost Story from director David Lowery.

Looking at the combined lists, I can't find any single film that seems head and shoulders a likely Sundance/Telluride crossover.  None of the directors have a feature TFF track record.


JENKINS ON MOONLIGHT

I have added a couple of articles that feature Moonlight writer/director Barry Jenkins talking about the making of the eight time Oscar nominated film that is widely regarded as the only real threat to steal Best Picture from La La Land.  Here they are:

From the Film Society of Lincoln Center

From The Playlist


That's all for this Thursday.  Have a great weekend...

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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COMMENT to the Blog

Toronto Announcement Examined

TORONTO ANNOUNCEMENT EXAMINED

The Toronto International Film Festival announced a total of 68 films this morning.  By examining their announced premiere status one can make a pretty educated guess as to the films from that list of 68 that are likely to make the TFF #43 lineup.  It's not always 100% accurate.  I have seen a film or two listed as a TIFF World Premiere that went on to play Telluride the weekend before Toronto but since the advent of "honest premiere" status that is very rare.

Onto the news from this morning.  Based on their status as "Canadian Premieres" we can probably expect to see the following at Telluride:

Arrival
Bleed for This
Frantz
La La Land
Maudie
Neruda
Things to Come
Toni Erdmann
Una

Manchester by the Sea is also listed as a Canadian Premiere but that would have been true at any rate as it was a Sundance film.  I still think it's a pretty likely owing to things I have read (Wells) and heard.  The CP designation may signal that it might play at Venice in some capacity.

Birth of a Nation is listed as an International Premiere which (as Wells said yesterday) indicates no Telluride play.

One other International Preem is Brotherhood which will have premiered in the UK prior to playing TIFF...so not a T-ride player.

All other films announced this morning were labeled World or North American Premieres which indicates that they will NOT play Telluride and, as it is every year, there were some surprises including:

American Honey
Lion
The Salesman
Salt and Fire.

All films I had thought had superior chances of playing TFF #43.

Also, as I have thought for most of the summer, Elle will not play Telluride.

Films that I had hoped to play Telluride that are off the blocks are:

American Pastoral
Denial
Nocturnal Animals
LBJ
Loving
A Monster Calls
The Secret Scripture
Snowden

People that could be showing up with their films in Telluride:

Amy Adams, Jeremy Renner, Miles Teller, Aaron Eckhardt, Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone, Rooney Mara and Ben Mendelsohn

Still unannounced after this morning:

Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
Silence
Moonlight
20th Century Women
Rules Don't Apply
Allied
War Machine
Fences
HHhH
Gold
Passengers
Miss Sloane
Live by Night
The Accountant
Hidden Figures
Sully
The Founder
The Girl on the Train
The Mercy
The Lost City of Z
Wilson
Passengers
Wild Oats


I'm probably leaving some out.

Here's the official press release from Toronto with descriptions and premiere statuses:

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/bed63d3ce10ec9adba60ea410/files/Galas_and_SPs_2016__.pdf


MORE TO COME...

TFF #43 Ten Bets #5 / Rules Festing? / Mining for Gold and Weinstein Woes / Venetian Rumors

Good Friday to everyone...

Let's start off with this week's Ten Bets update and the last one we'll have prior to next Tuesday's first wave of films announced for the Toronto International Film Festival and Thursday's Venice Film Fest announcement.

TFF #43 TEN BETS #5

Last week's Ten Bets:

10) The Unknown Girl
9) Things to Come
8) Wilson
7) La La Land
6) American Honey
5) Moonlight
4) The Red Turtle
3) Toni Erdmann
2) Fire at Sea
1) The Salesman


This week's Ten Bets:

10) The Unknown Girl
9) Arrival
8) Things to Come
7) American Honey
6) Moonlight
5) La La Land
4) The Salesman
3) Toni Erdmann
2) The Red Turtle
1) Fire at Sea

Close: Lion, Aquarius, Denial, A Monster Calls, How to Talk to Girls at Parties, Paterson, Dog Eat Dog, The Sense of an Ending.

A couple of notes:  as of this writing (7:00 am on Fri. 7/22) I am really back and forth about the Dardenne Brothers The Unknown Girl.  I am continuing to include it in the Ten Bets because of the frequency that the brothers have had films make the T-ride lineup but I honestly wouldn't be stunned if it is announced Tuesday for TIFF as a North American premiere.

I have The Weinstein's Lion just under the Ten Bets again this week although the turmoil and rumors surrounding TWC have me wondering if any TWC film will play Telluride this year.  The lack of a TWC title would be incredibly odd as they've played at least one film in the Telluride lineup every year that I've attended.  Still, of the four films that are possible ( Lion, The Founder, Gold, HHhH), none of them seems to be making a ton of pre-fest noise.  Meanwhile, rumors of financial difficulties also are dogging TWC right now which further muddies the picture and may explain some of the release date shifting that has occurred.  See below...


RULES FESTING?

Remember yesterday's post that included the analysis of The Guardian's 40 Films...Predict...Fests" article?   You might have noticed that Warren Beatty's Rules Don't Apply was included among The Guardian's "Dead Cert(ain)" list.  I suggested that its inclusion was intriguing because of Beatty's reported reluctance to play the film at Festivals.

Then, later in the day yesterday, a post popped up on Indiewire from Anne Thompson assessing the film's Oscar potential.  In it Thompson makes two references to the film making a play at fall film fests.  First writing that the film is

"...the film is ready to be unveiled at film festivals this fall"

And then late in the article Anne writes:

"Whether Rules Don't Apply (November 23) delivers both commercially and  artistically will be revealed at the fall festivals."

You might say..."well, Mikey...maybe it just plays New York."  And I'd say, that makes a lot of sense, but Thompson pretty clearly uses the plural "festivals" twice.

One other tidbit, Thompson compares the film in some respects to four films, two of which are The Artist and Birdman.  Both films played Telluride and won the Oscar for Best Picture.

I have to wonder if Thompson and The Guardian know more than we do...

Let's keep our eyes and ears open, shall we?

Hers' the link to the entire Thompson post:

http://www.indiewire.com/2016/07/warren-beatty-alden-ehrenreich-rules-dont-apply-comedy-oscar-1201706837/


MINING FOR GOLD AND WEINSTEIN WOES

Matthew McConnaughey and Edgar Ramirez in Gold

TWC-Dimension announced a release date for Stephen Gaghan's Gold starring Matthew McConnaughey.  The film will be opening on Dec. 25 making it eligible for Oscar consideration. TWC earlier this week moved its Michael Keaton starring The Founder off its August date and into December as well with a limited release on 12/16 and a wider rollout on Jan. 20.  They also moved Tulip Fever starring Alicia Vikander to 2017.  That film has been booted around a good deal as well.

As of this morning TWC has these four films in the chute for between now and the end of the year:

Lion (11/25)
Gold (12/15)
The Founder (12/16 and 1/20/17)
HHhH (Undetermined 2016 date)

It's all a dance amid speculation that The Weinstein Company is having some money trouble.

Check out this story and interview with Harvey Weinstein from The Hollywood Reporter:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/harvey-weinstein-explains-movie-release-913142

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/weinstein-cos-movie-shifts-raise-912571

Additionally, here is coverage of the announcement for Gold's release:

http://www.thewrap.com/twc-sets-holiday-release-date-for-matthew-mcconaugheys-gold/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/matthew-mcconaugheys-gold-dec-25-913306

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/07/21/matthew-mcconaughey-gold-christmas-release


VENETIAN RUMORS

Indiewire reported yesterday that Denis Villenueve's Arrival and Tom Ford's Nocturnal Animals are likely to be named as films to play the Venice Film Fest next week.  They would join Damien Chazelle's La La Land which has already been announced as the opener.

All three films could conceivably make the leap between Venice and Telluride.

Here's the Indiewire story:

http://www.indiewire.com/2016/07/tom-ford-nocturnal-animals-denis-villeneuve-arrival-venice-film-festival-1201708530/



That's it for this week.  Monday's post will include news about a likely animation title for TFF #43 and our annual look at TFF's "Usual Suspects" and who among them might be returning with projects for this year's SHOW.

Contact MTFB at:

mpgort@gmail.com

OR on Twitter @Gort2

OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse-107846269309712/

Or leave a comment...

Euro Producers: The French-Arte France / Daughter of the Dawn / Birth of a Nation

Welcome back from the weekend and a good Monday to you...

EURO PRODUCERS: THE FRENCH

After a two day respite, MTFB returns to continue our look at European production companies who have had a significant past presence at the Telluride Film Festival.  Today's producer is...


ARTE FRANCE CINEMA

Their track record looks like this:

2003: Dogville
2004: The Weeping Meadow
2005: The Child, Cache, Paradise Now
2006: Day Night Day Night
2008: O'Horten
2011: Le Havre, Goodbye First Love
2012:
2013: Le Maison de la Radio, The Lunchbox

2014: Diplomacy

2015: No films

But 2016 is chock full of TFF #43 possibilities: Salt and Fire, The Salesman, Peshmerga, The Red Turtle, Slack Bay, Things to Come and Fire at Sea.  My bet is that Arte France is in Telluride in 2016 with at least three films and maybe more.

DAUGHTER OF THE DAWN

You may recall from three years ago that I was dead certain that a silent film featuring Native American actors would play T-ride.  That didn't pan out.  But the film, Daughter Before the Dawn is set for Blue Ray release soon.  Ioncinema covers/reviews the release:

http://www.ioncinema.com/news/disc-reviews/the-daughter-of-dawn-norbert-myles-blu-ray-review




BIRTH OF A NATION

Amid buzz that the Sundance hit, Nate Parker's Birth of a Nation could play Telluride came another arresting image for the film over the weekend in the form of a new trailer and poster (above) for the film.  Coverage is here:

http://theplaylist.net/sundance-sensation-birth-nation-wants-rise-revolt-watch-new-trailer-20160621/


Here's the new trailer via YouTube:

That's going to do it for this Monday.  More tomorrow...

Contact MTFB at:

mpgort@gmail.com

OR on Twitter @Gort2

OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse-107846269309712/

OR leave a comment...

TFF #43 Ten Bets #4 / Euro Producers Part Two: The French-StudioCanal / The Rules Don't Apply for The Rules Don't Apply

It's FRIDAY!

TFF #43 TEN BETS

We're a couple of weeks away from the dual announcements of the first wave of Toronto films and the majority of films that will play the Venice fest and both of those lists will begin to give us our first real opportunity to do some inductive reasoning and a good idea of some of the Telluride lineup. Until then, you're stuck with my best guesses.

Last week's Ten Bets:

10) La La Land (Chazelle, Lionsgate, 12/2)

9) Things to Come (Hansen-Love, Sundance/IFC, TBA)

8) The Unknown Girl (Dardenne Brothers, TBA)

7) The Red Turtle, Dudok de Wit, SPC, TBA)

6) American Honey (Arnold, A24, 9/30)

5) Fire at Sea (Rosi, Kino Lorber, Y+TBA)

4) Moonlight (Jenkins, A24, 10/21)

3) Wilson (Johnson, Fox Searchlight, TBA)

2) The Salesman (Farhadi, Amazon/Cohen Media, 12/9)

1) Toni Erdmann (Ade, SPC, TBA)

This week's Ten Bets:

10) The Unknown Girl (Dardennes, Sundance Selects, TBA)
9) Things to Come (Hansen-Love, Sundance Selects, TBA)
8)  Wilson (Johnson, Fox Searchlight, TBA)

7) La La Land (Chazelle, Lionsgate, 12/2)

6) American Honey (Arnold, A24, 9/30)

5) Moonlight (Jenkins, A24, 10/21)

4) The Red Turtle (Dudok de Wit, SPC, TBA)

3) Toni Erdmann (Ade, SPC, 12/25)

2) Fire at Sea (Rosi, Kino Lorber, TBA)

1) The Salesman (Farhadi, Amazon/Cohen, 12/9)

Close: Lion, American Pastoral, Salt and Fire, A United Kingdom, Aquarius, Journey Through French Cinema, A Monster Calls, 20th Century Women, How to Talk to Girls at Parties, Paterson, Bleed for This, Arrival.

EURO PRODUCERS PART TWO: THE FRENCH- STUDIOCANAL

Over the past 13 years, these films have played Telluride while having some production assistance from StudioCanal:

2003: Young Adam, Love Me If You Dare

2005: Cache

2006: Indigines, Catch a Fire

2010: The Princess of Montpensier

2012: Love, Marilyn

2013: Inside Llewyn Davis

2015: He Named Me Malala

In the hopper:  The Lost City of Z, Gold, From the Land of the Moon.  We could see any, all or none of these.

THE RULES DON'T APPLY FOR THE RULES DON'T APPLY

Warren Beatty's new film...he says won't be in a fall film fest.  Warren Beatty is a trickster.  He's probably not spoofing us...but he might be.

And if he is?  

Honestly, the most likely spots would be AFI and New York.  Venice and then Toronto.  Telluride would be probably the last possibility...which makes it possible if Beatty is playing a game.  Do I think it's coming?  Nope.  But what if it did?

Anyway...the folks at 20th Century Fox released a trailer for the film early yesterday morning.  Here it is from YouTube:

It looks fairly humorous...

Coverage of the trailer drop is here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/rules-dont-apply-trailer-warren-911007

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2016/07/14/trailer-warren-beattys-rules-dont-apply/

http://theplaylist.net/first-trailer-warren-beattys-big-screen-return-rules-dont-apply-lily-collins-alden-ehrenreich-20160714/

http://www.firstshowing.net/2016/watch-first-trailer-for-rules-dont-apply-directed-by-warren-beatty/

http://www.thewrap.com/warren-beatty-lily-collins-rules-dont-apply-trailer-howard-hughes/

http://www.awardscircuit.com/2016/07/14/watch-first-trailer-warren-beattys-rules-dont-apply-w-alden-ehrenreich-lily-collins/

http://www.showbiz411.com/2016/07/14/first-trailer-for-warren-beattys-rules-dont-apply-looks-like-a-hit


That's all for this Friday.  Have a great weekend everyone.

Contact MTFB at:

mpgort@gmail.com

OR on Twitter @Gort2

OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse-107846269309712/

OR leave a comment...

Telluride Ten Bets #3 / Distribution Odds and Ends / A Sort of Trailer for How to Talk to Girls

Welcome to Friday!  Let's get right to it...


TELLURIDE TEN BETS #3

Last week's Ten Bets:

10) Things to Come (Hansen-Love, Sundance/IFC, TBA)
9) Lion (Davis, TWC, 11/25)
8) Moonlight (Jenkins, A24, 10/21)
7) Fire at Sea (Rosi, Kino Lorber, TBA)
6) The Red Turtle (Dudok de Wit, SPC, TBA)
5) The Unknown Girl (Dardennes, Sundance/IFC, TBA)
4) American Honey (Arnold, A24, 9/30)
3) Toni Erdmann (Ade, SPC, TBA)
2) Wilson (Johnson, Fox Searchlight, TBA)
1) The Salesman (Farhadi, Amazon/Cohen Media, TBA)

In the close category: American Pastoral, Loving, La La Land, A United Kingdom, Salt and Fire, Journey Through French Cinema, Aquarius, Birth of a Nation.

Now here's this week's latest iteration of ten films that I'm betting make the TFF #43 lineup.

10) La La Land (Chazelle, Lionsgate, 12/2)

9) Things to Come (Hansen-Love, Sundance/IFC, TBA)

8) The Unknown Girl (Dardenne Brothers, TBA)

7) The Red Turtle, Dudok de Wit, SPC, TBA)

6) American Honey (Arnold, A24, 9/30)

5) Fire at Sea (Rosi, Kino Lorber, Y+TBA)

4) Moonlight (Jenkins, A24, 10/21)

3) Wilson (Johnson, Fox Searchlight, TBA)

2) The Salesman (Farhadi, Amazon/Cohen Media, 12/9)

1) Toni Erdmann (Ade, SPC, TBA)

Close: Loving, Lion. American Pastoral, Salt and Fire, A United Kingdom, Aquarius, The Birth of a Nation, Journey Through French Cinema, A Monster Calls, 20th Century Women, How to Talk to Girls at Parties, Paterson.

DISTRIBUTION ODDS AND ENDS

Taking a last stroll through some distribution houses with a limited Telluride profile over the past decade and what they might offer to the festival.

MAGNOLIA- Past T-ride: 2006-Severance, 2007-Terror's Advocate, A Thousand Years of Good Prayers, Redacted, 2012-The Hunt, A Royal Affair, 2015-Viva

Potential for 2016- Harry Benson;Shoot First 30%

SAMUEL GOLDWYN- Past T-ride: 2008-American Violet, 2011-Diana Vreeland: The Eye Has to Travel, The Island President

Potential for 2016- Finding Altamira and Spirit of the Game both 25%

OSCILLOSCOPE- Past T-ride: 2008-Kisses, 2011- We Need to Talk About Kevin

Potential for 2016- One Week and a Day.  Chances 30%

ADOPT FILMS- Past T-ride: 2012- Barbara, 2013- Bethlehem

Potential for 2016- Beyond the Mountains and the Hills Chances 40%

That's the 2016 look at distribution outlets.  Next Monday I'll start looking at overseas production companies and what that might tell us about Telluride #43.

Also, this reminder.  Toronto's first wave announcement is coming on July 26 and Venice's comes July 28.  That should give us some serious insight.


SORT OF A TRAILER FOR HOW TO TALK TO GIRLS

Elle Fanning photo via The Hollywood Reporter

No, it's not an actual trailer for the film that we're keeping on the Telluride radar because it's in the A24 wheelhouse.  What it is is a teaser for the graphic novelization of the original Neil Gaiman story. So, though it's not for the film...it's kind of close.

Find the teaser embedded in this story from The Hollywood Reporter:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/neil-gaimans-how-talk-girls-908473

That'll do it for this Friday and this week.  Have a great weekend everyone!

Contact MTFB at:

mpgort@gmail.com

OR on Twitter @Gort2

OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse-107846269309712/

OR leave a comment...



2016 Telluride Ten Bets #2 / Distribution: Lionsgate, Roadside and Saban / The Playlist Wish List for Fall Fests

Welcome to Friday and July, my friends...

2016 TELLURIDE TEN BETS #2

Here's last week's Ten Bets:

10) Lion (Davis, TWC, 11/25)
9) Loving (Nichols, Focus, 11/4)
8) The Red Turtle (Dudok de Wit, SPC, TBA)
7) Moonlight (Jenkins, A24, TBA)
6) American Honey (Arnold, A24, TBA)
5) Fire at Sea (Rosi, Kino Lorber, TBA)
4) The Unknown Girl (The Dardennes, Sundance/IFC, TBA)
3) Toni Erdmann (Ade, SPC, TBA)
2) The Salesman (Fahradi, Amazon/Cohen Media, TBA)
1) Wilson (Johnson, Fox Searchlight, TBA)


Not many changes this week... (Director, Distributor and U.S. release date-if known-in parenthesis)

10) Things to Come (Hansen-Love, Sundance/IFC, TBA)
9) Lion (Davis, TWC, 11/25)
8) Moonlight (Jenkins, A24, 10/21)
7) Fire at Sea (Rosi, Kino Lorber, TBA)
6) The Red Turtle (Dudok de Wit, SPC, TBA)
5) The Unknown Girl (Dardennes, Sundance/IFC, TBA)
4) American Honey (Arnold, A24, 9/30)
3) Toni Erdmann (Ade, SPC, TBA)
2) Wilson (Johnson, Fox Searchlight, TBA)
1) The Salesman (Farhadi, Amazon/Cohen Media, TBA)

In the close category: American Pastoral, Loving, La La Land, A United Kingdom, Salt and Fire, Journey Through French Cinema, Aquarius, Birth of a Nation.


DISTRIBUTION: LIONSGATE, ROADSIDE AND SABAN

This combination of companies has had the fifth largest profile at Telluride over the past six years, though they were absent in 2015, they have averaged collectively 1.25 films/year.  Here's their collective track record since 2010:

2010: Biutiful
2011: Albert Nobbs
2012: Stories We Tell
2013: All is Lost, Gloria
2014: '71, The Homesman, Mommy

So, what do they have lined up for 2016 that might be a Telluride temptation?

Lionsgate:

La La Land
American Pastoral

(I am personally discounting the chances of Deepwater Horizon, Patriots Day and Hacksaw Ridge...though that decision could be premature).  Neither the Roadside Attractions or Saban Films banners have a film lined up currently that feels Telluride-ish so if this group has a shot at the fest this year it looks like one or both of these films from the Lionsgate group.

I think both are 50/50 prospects, although the announcement last week that La La Land was going to open Venice and be in competition makes me give it a slight edge.  Frankly, I'd like both films to SHOW but, just as easily, neither of them could.

On Monday, I'll look at specialty house Kino Lorber.

THE PLAYLIST WISH LIST FOR FALL FESTS

As they do annually, The Playlist posted their 50 film wish list for the fall festival season yesterday afternoon.  In it, they make some guesses about what films will play the fest circuit and which fests. Of the 50 films, they list nine as having a chance at Telluride.  They are:

20th Century Women
Arrival
Gold
How to Talk to Girls at Parties
La La Land
Lion
A Monster Calls
Sully
Trespass Against Us

From their list, if you've read this space much this summer, you will know that I think that 20th Century Women, How to Talk to Girls, La La Land and Lion all have a shot.  The others, not so much in my estimation.

In addition to the nine films they list with a Telluride potential, they list an additional 11 films that I think have a legitimate chance but that they don't connect to T-ride.  Included are: American Pastoral, Jackie, The Lost City of Z, Moonlight, Nocturnal Animals, The Oppenheimer Strategies, The Secret Scripture, Snowden, Una, A United Kingdom and War Machine.

It should be noted that over the past couple of years The Playlist "50 Wish List" has not been particularly prescient about Telluride guesses.  Last year they tagged 13 films in the article and only two panned out.  In 2014 it was one of six.  So, grain of salt people.

Here's the link to the complete post and its 50 films.

http://theplaylist.net/50-films-hope-see-2016-fall-festivals-20160630/#cb-content


That's a wrap for Friday and for the week.  Have a good weekend and come back Monday.

Contact MTFB at:

mpgort@gmail.com

OR on Twitter @Gort2

OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse-107846269309712/

OR leave a comment...

The Day Has Come; First "Ten Bets" for TFF#43 / Two Outside Shots with Trailers

Good Friday everyone...

THE DAY HAS COME: THE FIRST "TEN BETS" FOR TFF #43

A couple of notes...

First, this will be the sixth year of the "Ten Bets" and on average this first list will name approximately six films that will actually be on the TFF #43 lineup when it's announced on Sept. 1. The best initial Ten Bets was the first in 2011 which git eight titles correct.  The worst was actually last year;s when only four films on the very first list made the T-ride lineup.

Also, keep in mind that I'll have weekly updates and the prognostication success rate gets better the closer we get to the Festival.

Third, if you've been reading much of the blog since the Oscars ended, the first Ten Bets won't/shouldn't be much of a surprise.

And finally, as David Letterman used to be fond of saying, "No wagering."

Here's the Ten Bets from MTFB on the last Friday in June, 2016 (Director, Distributor and U.S. release date-if known-in parenthesis)

10) Lion (Davis, TWC, 11/25)
9) Loving (Nichols, Focus, 11/4)
8) The Red Turtle (Dudok de Wit, SPC, TBA)
7) Moonlight (Jenkins, A24, TBA)
6) American Honey (Arnold, A24, TBA)
5) Fire at Sea (Rosi, Kino Lorber, TBA)
4) The Unknown Girl (The Dardennes, Sundance/IFC, TBA)
3) Toni Erdmann (Ade, SPC, TBA)
2) The Salesman (Fahradi, Amazon/Cohen Media, TBA)
1) Wilson (Johnson, Fox Searchlight, TBA)

Close: Things to Come, Aquarius, Birth of a Nation, La La Land, A United Kingdom, Journey Through French Cinema and Salt and Fire.



TWO OUTSIDE SHOTS WITH TRAILERS

We had appearances yesterday for trailers for two films that have a slim chance of making this year's SHOW.  You'll notice that neither is on the above "Ten Bets" list nor the additional films that I have labeled as "close".  Nevertheless, both films could find their way into the Telluride lineup.

Christian Puiu's Sieranevada, which was critically very well received at Cannes in May dropped a trailer with french subtitles.  You can see that here thanks to YouTube:

This is the story from The Film Stage that reported the trailer's release:

https://thefilmstage.com/trailer/travel-to-sieranevada-in-first-trailer-for-cristi-puius-cannes-drama/


Also appearing yesterday was a trailer for Ewan McGregor's directing debut, an adaptation of Philip Roth's American Pastoral.

The film is set for an Oct. 21 limited release and is in the distribution hands of Lionsgate.  Here's its trailer from YouTube:

Here are some posts from that reported the trailer's release yesterday:

http://theplaylist.net/ewan-mcgregor-gets-philip-roth-first-trailer-american-pastoral-20160623/

https://thefilmstage.com/trailer/ewan-mcgregor-makes-directorial-debut-in-trailer-for-philip-roth-adaptation-american-pastoral/


http://www.indiewire.com/2016/06/american-pastoral-trailer-ewan-mcgregor-jennifer-connelly-dakota-fanning-1201692383/

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/06/23/ewan-mcgregor-american-pastoral-trailer

Contact MTFB at:

mpgort@gmail.com

OR on Twitter @Gort2

OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse-107846269309712/

OR leave a comment...

Osiason's Take on Possible Telluride Films / Trailer for American Honey Appears / Also a New Trailer for Birth of a Nation

Good Wednesday to all...



OSAISON'S TAKE ON POSSIBLE TELLURIDE FILMS

Jason Osiason is a friend of MTFB and has one of the best predictive minds in all of film twitterdom. He won last year's Gold Derby Oscar contest.  He's really good.

Recently, he put together a list of films that he feels have a real shot at playing Telluride and shared that with me.  With his permission, I thought I'd pass that list along.

Here's what he lists as "Likely" Telluride films:

20th Century Women
Aquarius
Arrival
Bleed for This
Elle
Fire at Sea
Loving
Manchester-by-the -Sea
Moonlight
Risk
The Eagle Huntress
The Red Turtle
The Salesman
Things to Come
Toni Erdmann
Wilson
How to Talk to Girls at Parties

He also lists as "possible":

Good Time
My Life as a Courgette (just won the top prize at the Annecy Fest)
Neruda
Nocturnal Animals
The Beautiful Days of Aranjuez
The Meyerowitz Stories
The Son of Joseph
The Mercy
Birth of a Nation
Girl on a Train

Jason has a couple of other ideas but we'll let those percolate for now.  I think his "likely" list is very, very good/impressive.

And I guess this is as good a time as any to announce that MTFB will have its first "Ten Bets" list for 2016 up on FRIDAY, June 26.  It's about to get serious.


AMERICAN HONEY TRAILER APPEARS

Andrea Arnold's American Honey had a trailer drop yesterday.  The film stars Shia LaBeouf and Sasha Lane and is distributed by A24 which was at Telluride recently with Room, Under the Skin and Ginger and Rosa.

Arnold has also been represented at Telluride with Fish Tank.

Here's the trailer from YouTube...it intrigues:

Linked coverage of the film and its trailer are here:

http://www.indiewire.com/2016/06/american-honey-trailer-sasha-lane-shia-labeouf-andrea-arnold-cannes-1201690990/

http://www.thewrap.com/american-honey-trailer-shia-labeouf-on-road-teenage-troublemaker/

https://thefilmstage.com/trailer/first-trailer-for-andrea-arnolds-cannes-winner-american-honey/

http://www.firstshowing.net/2016/must-watch-first-full-trailer-for-andrea-arnolds-american-honey/

http://theplaylist.net/watch-first-trailer-andrea-arnolds-cannes-prize-winning-american-honey-starring-shia-laboeuf-riley-keough-20160621/

ALSO A NEW TRAILER FOR THE BIRTH OF A NATION

Nate Parker's Sundance sensation, The Birth of a Nation released a new, full length trailer yesterday as well.  I've flogged the notion that Telluride doesn't play Sundance films multiple times in this space but I've also frequently noted that they have had occasional exceptions.  Could this film be one of those rare exceptions?  

Some people think it could.

Here's the new trailer from YouTube:

Links to coverage:

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/the-birth-of-a-nation-trailer-full-nate-parker-1201800389/

http://theplaylist.net/sundance-sensation-birth-nation-wants-rise-revolt-watch-new-trailer-20160621/

https://thefilmstage.com/trailer/a-revolt-begins-in-full-length-trailer-for-nate-parkers-the-birth-of-a-nation/

That's the post for Wednesday...

A reminder that MTFB's forst Ten Bets list goes up on Friday.

Thanks for reading...Have a good weekend.

Contact MTFB at:

mpgort@gmail.com

OR on Twitter @Gort2

OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse-107846269309712/

OR leave a comment...

Nocturnal Animals to Be Released / Acquisition Wrap-up from Cannes-So Many Telluride Possibilities / More Than the Palme Could Play

NOCTURNAL ANIMALS TO BE RELEASED

Nocturnal Animal stars Amy Adams and Jake Gyllenhaal via MovieWeb

News this week that Tom Ford's sophomore directorial effort, Nocturnal Animals, will be released in November.  Telluride fans might want to take notice.  The film is being distributed by Focus Features (which we already are eyeballing because they're also distributing Jeff Nichols' Loving).  I really do expect Focus is likely to try to play Telluride and up until now that meant a play for Loving.  This dating of the release for Nocturnal Animals might change that calculus.

Additionally, a couple of the stories in the Big Time Press say that Telluride regular Laura Linney is in the cast, which might boost its T-ride profile.  However, a late check of Ms. Linney's IMDb credits shows no such affiliation with the film.  Can anyone clear that up?

Here's coverage of the date announcement:

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/jake-gyllenhaal-nocturnal-animals-release-date-1201784012/

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/05/26/jake-gyllenhaal-amy-adams-michael-shannon-film-release

https://thefilmstage.com/news/tom-fords-nocturnal-animals-starring-jake-gyllenhaal-and-amy-adams-gets-november-release/

ACQUISITION WRAP-UP FROM CANNES-SO MANY TELLURIDE POSSIBILITIES

Toni Erdmann

I have linked this report from The Hollywood Reporter that runs down a good deal of the acquisition news that came out of Cannes from last week.

Based on those acquisitions and past Telluride associations we should probably pay some attention to:

Sony Pictures Classics pickups: Toni Erdmann, Elle and The Red Turtle.

Sundance Selects: I, Daniel Blake

Amazon (with Cohen Media): The Salesman

Check the story here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/cannes-deals-wrap-fest-was-897057

MORE THAN THE PALME COULD PLAY

Last Thursday I put up a ranking of all 21 Cannes Palme competition entries in the order of what I think their probability of playing The SHOW.  But as you know, not all films that make the crossover from Cannes to Telluride are Palme competition films.  On average (over the last 10 years) one film from the Un Certain Regard section will double the two fests and another 2.2 films will come from other segments; Directors Fortnight or Special Screenings for example.

Based on directors, critical response, past Telluride plays and/or distributors, these ten films seem to me to be the most likely candidates for those 3-4 spots:

My best guess at the order of likelihood:

The Red Turtle
Hell or High Water
Dog Eat Dog
Neruda
Exil
Risk
Peshmerga
Endless Poetry
After the Storm
The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki


Tha's a wrap for Memorial Day...more on Thursday...when I'll begin the summer posting schedule of Monday through Friday.

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to