The Playlist 150 / Visitations: The Secret Agent

 THE PLAYLIST 150

I'm continuing our gaze ahead to TFF #53 with a look today at The Playlist's 150 most anticipated films. I'm scouring that list for looking for titles that might be prime candidates for inclusion at TFF.  I have them listed below with their "position on The Playlist list in parentheses.  Director's last name is also included.

So away we go...

135) The Last Disturbance of Madeline Hyne (Branagh)

81) The Unknown (Harari)

72) The Basics of Philosophy (Schrader)

60) Look Back and/or Sheep in the Box (Kore-eda)

46) Parallel Tales (Farhadi)

45) The Way of the Wind (Malick)

44) A Long Winter (Haigh)

28) Bucking Fastard (Herzog)

25) At the Sea (Mundruczo)

18) The Social Reckoning (Fincher)

14) Jack of Spades (J. Coen)

13) Artificial (Guadagnino)

7) The Drama (Borgli)

6) Paper Tiger (Gray)

3) Digger (Inarritu)

You can find the complete list here.

VISITTATIONS: THE SECRET AGENT

Two interviews for the Oscar nominated film:

Kleber Mendonca Filho from The New Yorker.

Kleber Mendonca Filho from The Contending.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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MTFB Oscar Take: Supporting Update / Satellites and TFF #49 / BIFA and TFF #49 / The Playlist 100 and TFF #50 / Visitations: Downey Jr., Whishaw and Wells

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: SUPPORTING UPDATE

I am updating predictions in the categories of Best  Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor.  These were last predicted on Nov. 24th.  Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses.  Performances from TFF #49 are in Bold.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Women Talking (1)

2) Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

3) Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere All at Once (5)

4) Clare Foy/Women Talking (3)

5) Hong Chau/The Whale (6)

6) Carey Mulligan/She Said (4)

7) Angela Bassett/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (7)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

2) Brendan Gleeson/The Banshees of Inisherin (1)

3) Judd Hirsch/The Fabelmans (3)

4) Paul Dano/The Fabelmans (4)

5) Ben Whishaw/Women Talking (5)

6) Barry Keoghan/The Banshees of Inisherin (6)

7) Bryan Tyree Henry/Causeway (New)

Out: Eddie Redmayne/The Good Nurse 

SATELLITES AND TFF #49

The International Press Association announced the nominees for its Satellite Awards earlier this morning.  TFF #49 earned 25 nominations with one other nomination for a TFF #48 film.  Here's the breakdown:

Women Talking-6: Best Picture/Drama, Direction, Supporting Actress (Foy), Supporting Actor (Whishaw), Adapted Screenplay and Original Score

TAR-4: Best Picture: Drama,/Actress (Blanchett), Original Screenplay, Editing

Living-4: Best Picture/Drama, Actor (Nighy), Adapted Screenplay and Costumes

Empire of Light-2: Cinematography and Costumes

Close-2: Best Picture/ International  and Original Screenplay

Good Night Oppy-2: Best Documentary, Visual Effects

Armageddon Time-1: Supporting Actor (Strong)

Holy Spider-1: Best Picture/International

Bardo-1: Best Picture/International

The Return of Tanya Tucker-1: Documentary

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed-1: Documentary

And from TFF #48- Marcel the Shell with Shoes On for Best Animated Film

I am particularly pleased with the love for Living, the nominations for Jeremy Storng and Ben Whishaw in Supporting Actor and, of course, the Marcel nomination.

The complete list of nominees is linked here from the IPA.

BIFA AND TFF #49

The British Independent Film Awards were named  this past week and TFF #49 fils garnered nine awards led by Aftersun which won more BIFAs than any other film with seven.  The Wonder and Living each picked up a single accolade.  here's the breakdown:

Aftersun: Best British Independent Film, Direction, Debut Director, Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing and Music Supervision.

The Wonder: Best Original Music.

Living: Best Production Design.

The complete list of nominees and winners from BIFA is linked here.

THE PLAYIST 100 AND TFF #50

As has become my habit, here is my review of The Playlist's just published 100 Most Anticipated Films of 2023 and some guesses as to what from that list that could make the lineup of the 50thedition of the Telluride Film Festival.  

Last year I ended up naming five films that DID play TFF #49: TAR, Armageddon Time, Bardo, Bones and All and Women Talking.  Looking back, it seems 5-6 films is about my average to get right from this exercise and generally they are films that are among the top 20 of the list.

Here are this year's guesses in the order that they appear on the list;

84) Rustin

78) Shirley

77) The Royal Hotel

66) The End

39) Strangers

37) The Actor

35) Nightbitch

34) The Way of the Wind

33) Love Lies Bleeding

29) Beth and Don

27) Megalopolis

16) Blitz

15) May/December

14) El Conde

11) Zone of Interest

10) Maestro

8) Priscilla

7) Poor Things

2) The Killer

1) Killers of the Flower Moon

Admittedly, The Killer and Flower Moon are likely more wishful thinking but a guy can dream.

The complete Playlist list is linked here.

VISITATIONS

Downey Jr. on Sr. from Indiewire.

Ben Whishaw on Women Talking from Gold Derby.

Charlotte Wells on Aftersun from Film at Lincoln Center.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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The Playlist 100 and TFF #48? / Oscar Update: Best Picture / Acquisition News / BIFA Nominations Include TFF #47 Films / Ammonite: The Details of the True Story

THE PLAYLIST 100 AND TFF #48?

Each year around this time The Playlist maps out a list of its 100 most anticipated films for the following year. each year I try to cull some ides for what might be in the mix as possible choices for Telluride.  Last year's assessment ended up with me picking 12 films as possible for TFF #47.  That list ended up having two films that were on TFF's announced list of films for 2020: Nomadland and Mainstream. 

In my defense...Covid-19 happened.  Among the 12 films I named, five were Netflix films ( Mank, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, The White Tiger and Midnight Sky) and who knew then that Netflix would opt not to festival any films.

Several have yet to be released and some of those actually will be on the list below of films for the 2021 edition of TFF Such as: Stillwater, Bergman Island, Nightmare Alley and Dune.

So, from the new list for 2021 maybe look out for a couple of these titles to make the TFF #48 schedule:

94) The Woman in the Window

90) Bigbug

88) The Mad Woman's Ball

86) The Last Duel

78) Land

76) The Electric Life of Louis Wain

59) The Velvet Underground

54) Stillwater***

50) The Eyes of Tammy Faye

47) The Card Counter

42) Babylon

36) Les Olympiades

17) Petite Maman

16) Annette

10) The Tragedy of Macbeth

8) Blonde

7) The Power of the Dog

6) Bergman Island***

4) Nightmare Alley***

3) The French Dispatch

*** Was on last year's list

The complete Playlist 100 is linked here.

OSCAR UPDATE: BEST PICTURE

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Picture updated since I last posted this category on  Nov. 16th.  A film's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 films are indicated in Bold

1) Nomadland (1)

2) Mank (2)

3) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (3)

4) Minari (6)

5) One Night in Miami (5)

6) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (7)

7) The Father (4)

8) News of the World (9)

9) Da 5 Bloods (8)

10) Judas and the Black Messiah (-)

Possibles: Promising Young Woman, Soul, Sound of Metal

Hot: Minari, Judas and the Black Messiah

Not: The Father, Soul

ACQUISITION NEWS

A couple of TFF #47 listed films were acquired for North American release within the past week.  Agniezska Holland's Charlatan was picked up by Strand Releasing according to reporting from Variety.

Here is the link to the Variety story.

Meanwhile Gianfranco Rosi's Notturno (which is looking to land Oscar nominations for Best International Feature and Best Documentary) was acquired for North America by Neon's Super LTD.  That story came from The Hollywood Reporter.

Here is the link to the story from The Hollywood Reporter.

BIFA NOMINATIONS INCLUDE TFF #47 FILMS

The British Independent Film Association announced their nominees for outstanding work in Brit indy film this past week and Florian Zeller's The Father (and TFF #47 selection) did quite well with six nominations which included: Best British Independent Film, Best Director (Zeller) , Best Actor (Hopkins), Best Screenplay (Zeller and Hampton), Best Editing and Best Production Design.

In a bit of a surprise Olivia Colman was not nominated for Supporting Actress for The Father.

Other TFF #47 films were in the mix as well.

Ammonite was nominated for Best Costume Design and Best Makeup and Hair.

Nomadland and Notturno were both nominated in the Best International Independent Film category. 

Here's the complete rundown of all of the BIFA nominees from Variety.

AMMONITE: THE DETAILS OF THE TRUE STORY 

The Los Angeles Times' Mark Olsen took an in-depth look at the true story behind Francis Lee's Ammonite starring Kate Winslet and Saoirse Ronan.  The film is now available on premium video on demand in a number of outlets.

Here's the link to the story.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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Reminders as we head into 2019 / 150 Foreign Films / Golden Globes on Sunday / 52 Directors on 2018 Films

REMINDERS AS WE HEAD INTO 2019

I took a quick step back at the last couple of months and have re-posted 2019 speculative pieces (with an update here and there) about what films might be in consideration to make the lineup at TFF #46:


THE PLAYLIST 100 (from my Dec. 6th post)

The annual review of their 100 most anticipated films for the new year came down for The Playlist earlier this week and, as you might expect, I have culled the list for films that seem like they should be on our radar for TFF #46.

The staff specifically mentions Telluride as a possible destination for only three films:

#39: Pale Blue Dot (now titled: Lucy in the Sky)
#26: The untitled Noah Baumbach project
#11: The Last Thing He Wanted

Among the other 97 films listed, the following are the ones that seem to me to be most likely:

#100: The Glorias: A Life on the Road
#91: Resistance
#79: My Zoe
#66: Mainstream
#64: Against All Enemies
#63: The Woman in the Window
#59: The Trial of the Chicago 7 (not likely as production has been delayed)
#52: Motherless Brooklyn
#40: The Goldfinch
#34: You Are My Friend (Now titled: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
#33: Antlers
#30: Ema
#29: Waiting for the Barbarians
#24: The King
#20: Radegund
#19: Bergman Island
#17: The Truth
#15: The Laundromat
#13: Triple Frontier (off the list, release dated for Mar. 13th)
#7: Little Women
#2: The Irishman

The complete list of 100 films (plus some honorable mentions) from The Playlist is linked here.

WELLS AND RUIMY (from my Nov. 26th post)


I saw that Jeff Wells/Hollywood Elsewhere and Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel had both created and published lists of anticipated 2019 titles...which seems like bait I can't ignore.  Sooo...

I took a look at both lists (which share a huge number of titles) and here are twelve films that seem/sound like they might be candidates for inclusion for TFF #46:

All You Need Is Love.  The project (with Beatles music as a central part of the film) could make TFF #46 because it's from Danny Boyle who has had a significant history with the fest: Slumdog Millionaire, 127 Hours, Steve Jobs.  The film is currently scheduled for U.S. release on Sept. 13th.

The True American from Pablo Larrain...if it's ready.  Larrain, like Boyle, has had a strong history with TFF: No, Neruda.  Both this and the above mentioned Boyle project are produced by Annapurna Pictures which has also had a presence at Telluride: Foxcatcher, Destroyer.

You Are My Friend (now titled A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood):  From Marielle Heller who just has had her Telluride introduction with Can You Ever Forgive Me?  The film stars Tom Hanks (who was at TFF with Sully in 2016) as Fred Rogers.  The film has an awards and TFF friendly release date of Oct. 18th.

Little Women: Greta Gerwig's anticipated take on the Louisa May Alcott classic.  With the reception that her directorial debut Lady Bird received at TFF in 2017 you have to think this is a real possibility.  Scheduled for release on Dec. 25th.

The Woman in the Window: director Joe Wright's follow-up to his 2017 Darkest Hour which played TFF and earned six Oscar nominations and won two including Gary Oldman's Best Actor win.  The film is set for release on Oct. 4th.  The film's plot sounds much a take on Hitchcock's Rear Window and the cast is ridiculously stunning: Julianne Moore, Amy Adams and Gary Oldman.

NOPE...SET TO DROP AT SUNDANCE: Velvet Buzzsaw: From writer-director Dan Gilroy.  I'm mostly thinking this could play because Gilroy re-teams with his Nightcrawler co-conspirators Jake Gyllenhaal and Rene Russo.  The film is set in the contemporary art scene and is described as a horror/thriller.  Netflix is producing which doesn't hurt its TFF chances if the recent past is any indication.

Pale Blue Dot (now titled Lucy in the Sky)  Fargo (the TV version) guru Noah Hawley jumps into feature film making with Natalie Portman starring as an astronaut having issues once she returns from space.  The film is from Fox Searchlight which means we have to consider it a TFF possibility.

Bergman Island: Mia Hansen-Love's latest project and a with her TFF pedigree (Goodbye First Love, Things to Come), a film we should consider.  Mia Wasikowska and Vicky Krieps star.

AGAIN...NOPE...RELEASE IS IN MARCH NOW....Triple Frontier:  a long gestating project from J.C. Chandor.  It's been developed by Netflix and stars Ben Affleck and Oscar Isaac among others about an attempt to overturn the drug trade in South America.  Chandor was in T-ride in 2014 with All Is Lost and both Affleck (Argo) and Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis) have been as well.

And then here are these three huge projects...

The Goldfinch:  The film adaptation of the Pulitzer Prize winning novel by Donna Tartt.  John Crowley, who broke through with Brooklyn in 2015, directs.  The cast includes Nicole Kidman (this year at TFF with Destroyer and Boy Erased) and Sarah Paulson.  The film is from Amazon and is set for release on Oct. 11th which makes a T-ride play possible.

Radegund:  Terrence Malick's latest and a film I have been waiting for from him for some time now...surprise, surprise.  The true story of a German conscientious objector in World War II could appear in 2019...or not.  I wouldn't be surprised if it was a selection for Cannes.

The Irishman:  Martin Scorsese's Netflix joint.  Probably an unrealistic dream for a Telluride play but a guy has to hope.  DeNiro, Pacino, Pesci and Keitel and more.  The best chance that it plays is that it is from Netflix which, again, doesn't hurt its chances for Telluride.  Netflix has to be happy, at least so far, with how Roma played TFF which probably helps too.


The complete Hollywood Elsewhere post is here.

The complete World of Reel post is here.


150 FOREIGN FILMS

Ioncinema has undertaken the mammoth task of laying out 150 foreign films to anticipate in 2019.  The list is ongoing and not yet complete at their site. 

Among the early films listed are Xavier Dolan's Matthias and Maxime, Michel Hazanavicius' The Lost Prince and Zhang Yimou's One Second which all could make a splash over Labor Day weekend in Telluride.

Here's the first of the links from Ioncinema.



GOLDEN GLOBES ON SUNDAY

I honestly have no real idea how these 90+ HFPA members are going to play this on Sunday.  If I had to guess, I'm thinking A Star Is Born is likely to have a big night.

Here's a reminder of the TFF films/performers who are nominated for Golden Globes:

The Favourite (5):  Best Film-Musical or Comedy, Best Actress-Musical or Comedy (Colman), Best Supporting Actress (Stone and Weisz), Screenplay

Roma (3): Foreign Language, Direction, Screenplay

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (2):  Best Actress-Musical or Comedy (McCarthy), Best Supporting Actor (Grant)

Boy Erased (2): Best Actor-Drama (Hedges), Best Song

First Man (2): Best Supporting Actress (Foy), Best Score

Destroyer (1): Best Actress-Drama (Kidman)

The Old Man and the Gun (1): Best Actor-Musical or Comedy (Redford)

Girl (1): Best Foreign Language Film

Shoplifters (1): Best Foreign Language Film

TFF #45 films earn 18 Globe nominations.  I'll have some sort of breakdown and commentary in Monday's post.

THE PLAYLIST POLLS 52 DIRECTORS ON THE FILMS OF 2018

The Playlist recent posted an article titled "52 Directors Pick Their Favorite Movies of 2018".  The results are not particularly surprising...Roma is named as the favorite from eight directors including Guillermo Del Toro, Pedro Almodovar, Lynne Ramsay, Rebecca Miller and Edgar Wright.

Several of the respondents listed films in alphabetically order.  Some listed favorite performances or moments.  One even included mention of a couple of plays.

Also mentioned by at least one director as their favorite 2019 film from among Telluride offerings: The Favourite, First Man, Cold War, The Other Side of the Wind and TFF #44's First Reformed.

The complete article from The Playlist is here.


That's MTFB for this first Thursday in 2019.  Happy New Year to all!


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Golden Globe Nominations Land / AFI Names Ten Best (Plus One) / The Playlist 100 for 2019

It's Golden Globe nomination Thursday and as such, MTFB is a bit later today than usual but here it is now...


GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS LAND

Here are this morning's Golden Globe nominees.  TFF films are indicated with *.

Best Picture/Drama

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born

Best Picture/Musical-Comedy

Crazy Rich Asians
*The Favourite
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns
Vice


Best Actor/Drama

Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe/At Eternity's Gate
*Lucas Hedges/Boy Erased
Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody
John David Washington/BalcKkKlansman

Best Actress/Drama

Glenn Close/The Wife
Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born
*Nicole Kidman/Destroyer
*Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Rosamund Pike/A Private War

Best Actor/Musical-Comedy

Christian Bale/Vice
Lin Manuel Miranda/Mary Poppins Returns
Viggo Mortensen/Green Book
*Robert Redford/The Old Man and the Gun
John C. Reilly/Stan and Ollie


Best Actress Musical-Comedy

Emily Blunt/Mary Poppins Returns
*Olivia Colman/The Favourite
Elise Fisher/Eighth Grade
Carlize Theron/Tully
Constance Wu/Crazy Rich Asians

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali/Green Book
Timothee Chalamet/Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver/BlacKkKlansman
*Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell/Vice

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams/Vice
*Claire Foy/First Man
Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk
*Emma Stone/The Favourite
*Rachel Weisz/The Favourite

Best Direction

Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born
*Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
Peter Farrelly/Green Book
Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay/Vice

Best Screenplay

*Roma
*The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
Vice
Green Book

Best Score

A Quiet Place
Isle of Dogs
Black Panther
*First Man
Mary Poppins Returns

Best Song

Black Panther
Dumplin'
A Private War
*Boy Erased
A Star Is Born


Best Animated Feature

Incredibles 2
Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Isle of Dogs
Marai

Best Foreign Language Film

Capernaum
*Girl
Never Look Away
*Roma
*Shoplifters


TFF #45 nominees by film:

The Favourite:  Best Film-Musical or Comedy, Best Actress-Musical or Comedy (Colman), Best Supporting Actress (Stone and Weisz), Screenplay

Roma: Foreign Language, Direction, Screenplay

Can You Ever Forgive Me? Best Actress-Musical or Comedy (McCarthy), Best Supporting Actor (Grant)

Boy Erased: Best Actor-Drama (Hedges), Best Song

Destroyer: Best Actress-Drama (Kidman)

First Man: Best Supporting Actress (Foy), Best Score

The Old Man and the Gun: Best Actor-Musical or Comedy (Redford)

Girl: Best Foreign Language Film

Shoplifters: Best Foreign Language Film

TFF #45 films earn 18 Globe nominations.

AFI NAMES TEN BEST (PLUS ONE)

The American Film Institute named their ten best films for 2018 on Tuesday:

TFF #45 earned one spot on the list for Yorgos Lanthimos' The Favourite.  TFF #45 entrant Roma was named as the recipient of a special award as it was not eligible for the top ten list per AFI rules.  TFF #44 film First Reformed was also named to the AFI Top Ten list.  That could bode well for Roma as the last time the AFI named a film for a special award was in 2011 for eventual Oscar Best Picture winner The Artist.

First Man and Can You Ever Forgive Me? both missed out.

The complete list:

BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Eighth Grade
If Beale Street Could Talk
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Room
Mary Poppins Returns
A Quiet Place
A Star Is Born

Special Award: Roma

Here's coverage from Indiewire.



THE PLAYLIST 100

The annual review of their 100 most anticipated films for the new year came down for The Playlist earlier this week and, as you might expect, I have culled the list for films that seem like they should be on our radar for TFF #46.

The staff specifically mentions Telluride as a possible destination for only three films:

#39: Pale Blue Dot (now titled: Lucy in the Sky)
#26: The untitled Noah Baumbach project
#11: The Last Thing He Wanted

Among the other 97 films listed, the following are the ones that seem to me to be most likely:

#100: The Glorias: A Life on the Road
#91: Resistance
#79: My Zoe
#66: Mainstream
#64: Against All Enemies
#63: The Woman in the Window
#59: The Trial of the Chicago 7 (not likely as production has been delayed)
#52: Motherless Brooklyn
#40: The Goldfinch
#34: You Are My Friend (Now titled: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
#33: Antlers
#30: Ema
#29: Waiting for the Barbarians
#24: The King
#20: Radegund
#19: Bergman Island
#17: The Truth
#15: The Laundromat
#13: Triple Frontier (off the list, release dated for Mar. 13th)
#7: Little Women
#2: The Irishman

The complete list of 100 films (plus some honorable mentions) from The Playlist is linked here.


That's all she wrote for this Golden Globes Thursday...more on Monday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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The FAC Updates Picture and Director / An Early Peek at TFF #44 Possibilities / AFI Best Films List

Welcome to Thursday...

THE FAC UPDATES BEST PICTURE AND DIRECTOR OSCAR CANDIDATES

Our last look at the Best Picture and Director categories for The Film Awards Clearinghouse came on Nov. 3 and the intervening month has seen some changes.  Here's a look at where those two categories stand as we end the first week of December.

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.  The film's previous position follows its title in parentheses.

BEST PICTURE

1) La La Land (1)

2) Moonlight (4)

3) Manchester by the Sea (2)

4) Fences (3)

5) Hell or High Water (12)

6) Lion (5)

7) Silence (6)

8) Arrival (8)

9) Sully (10)

10) Loving (9)

11) Jackie (7)

12) Hacksaw Ridge (NR)

Hot: Moonlight, Jell or High Water, Hacksaw Ridge

Not: Jackie, Live by Night

On the Cusp: Hidden Figures

Comment:  The Oscar experts can say that the early critical awards don't matter in as far as Oscar is concerned all the want, but what else explains the bump for Moonlight and the sky-rocketing fortunes of David Mackenzie's Hell or High Water.  Those experts have been affected by something over the last month.  Meanwhile, Ben Affleck's Live by Night has taken a nose dive.

Telluride looks good for 3-5 Best Picture nominations.

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Damien Chazelle/La La Land (1)

2) Barry Jenkins/Moonlight (3)

3) Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea (2)

4) Martin Scorsese/Silence (4)

5) Denzel Washington/Fences (5)

6) Denis Villeneuve/Arrival (6)

7) Pablo Larrian/Jackie (7)

8) Garth Davis/Lion (8)

9) Jeff Nichols/ Loving (9)

10) David Mackenzie/Hell or High Water (NR)

Hot: Mackenzie

Not: Clint Eastwood/Sully

On the Cusp: Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge

Comment: A very stable category over the last month.  Scorsese's spot at #4 might indicate that Silence is in better shape for a Best Pic nomination than its #7 rank would indicate.

Telluride sitting at 3-4 Best Directing nominations.




AN EARLY PEEK AT TFF#44 POSSIBILITIES

Each year any number of film outlets lay out their "most anticipated" lists for the following year. Normally those get published at the beginning of January and provide the first glimpse of what films lie ahead and, as a result give some clues about films that might make The SHOW.

This year, for whatever reason, The Playlist has jumped on the topic early.., a month early.  They posted their 100 Most Anticipated 2017 films on Tuesday.  It caught me a bit off guard and I thought that I might just pin the article and come back to it in a month or so I thought, "Why not?".

Consequently, I prepped my commentary Tuesday and Wednesday.  One of the things that I did was to look back at the past three years of the very same lists to see how much it corresponds to what actually happened over Labor Day weekend.  I wasn't very good at picking films from last year's list but was better in 2015 and 2014.  Here's what I mean:

Last year, from the 100 films that The Playlist mentioned, seven made the TFF lineup: Neruda, Una, Things to Come, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, La La Land and Arrival (which was titled The Story of Your Life at the time).  The only film among them that I named: Neruda.  Just for hoots, I went back and discovered that I first mentioned both La La Land and Moonlight for the first time in March.  Manchester had already been on the MTFB radar the year before.

In 2015 the list included: Carol, Beasts of No Nation, Black Mass, Suffragette and Spotlight which I included on my Telluride-possibles as well as Room, 45 Years and Steve Jobs which I did not list.

In 2014 the list included: The Lunchbox, Mommy, Tracks and Wild that I didn't name for TFF but did include three films that I did pick: Birdman, Foxcatcher and Mr. Turner.

So, the conclusion is that somewhere on the list for 2017 are probably 7-8 titles that make the TFF #44 program and I'll get about three of them right out of the list of 20 guesses I have below.  Not the best odds, but I'm shooting in the dark here.

Here are the films listed by their position on The Playlist's list:

98- Redoubtable-Michel Hazanavicius' take of the life of film legend Jean-Luc Godard.
92- A Fantastic Woman- from Sebastian Lelio who brought his Gloria to T-ride in 2013.
90-The Lovers- from A24
85- Battle of the Sexes- Billy Jean King versus Bobby Riggs with Emma Stone and Steve Carell.  Produced by Danny Boyle
76- Lady Bird- The Playlist suggests Telluride as a possibility.
64- Wind River-from The Weinstein Company, because I think they'll be back at TFF.
62-Tully- Could Jason Reitman and Diablo Cody return?
57- Mektoub is Mektoub- Abdellatif Kechiche's follow up to Blue is the Warmest Color.
55- The Current War- Weinsteins
51-The Other Side of Hope- Maybe Aki Kauismaki (Le Harve/TFF 2011) returns.
41- Molly's Game-Could Aaron Sorkin return to T-ride with his directing debut?   It might depend on how he felt about the reception for Steve Jobs.  Maybe this gets Jessica Chastain into town.
33- Mudbound- Playlist mentions it as a possibility for Telluride.
28- Lean on Pete Andrews-Andrew Haigh could return after the success he had at T-ride with 45 Years.
25- Downsizing- Alexander Payne with Matt Damon starring.  Will likely start next summer's first "Ten Bets" list at the number one spot.
24- Loveless- Andrey Zvyagintsev had a great Telluride bow with his Leviathan in 2014.  Could portend a return.
21- Suburbicon- George Clooney directing.  I've always thought that Clooney was a good bet to come back to TFF.  He seemed to have such a good time there when he received a tribute in 2009 (Up in the Air).  This could be the ticket.
17-The Shape of Water- I've thought since Alfonso Cuaron made the trip with Gravity in 2013 that we'd probably see Guillermo Del Toro someday.  Del Toro is the third of the three amigos, Alejandro Inarritu being the other and Inarritu has practically been a Telluride citizen over the years (Babel, Biutiful, Birdman).  The Shape of Water seems like the kind of smaller Del Toro that could crack the TFF lineup.
16- Mother- Darren Aronofsky directs.  His success with Black Swan in 2010 makes a return a possibility.
15- You Were Never Really Here- Will Lynne Ramsay return after her success in 2011 with We Need to Talk about Kevin?
9- Wonderstruck-Todd Haynes.  Past Telluride's : I'm Not There (2007) and Carol (2015).  Please return and bring Julianne Moore with you.
5- Happy End- Michael Haneke- Cache, The White Ribbon and Amour have all played T-ride so this seems likely.

The complete ;list of 100 films plus some bonus titles is here from The Playlist.

Although, I feel like I've detected a trend last couple of years toward shying away from this kind of obviousness in the program's curation.  Maybe it's just me, but no Audiard/Dheepan in 2015, for example.

One other note...The Playlist's #1 most anticipated is the announced Paul Thomas Anderson/Daniel Day Lewis collaboration on a film set in the fashion world of 1950's New York.  Yes, it will be my most anticipated as well but I'll actually be surprised if it's ready in time for a 2017 date.  My guess would be a Cannes 2018 play with perhaps a NYFF screening and maybe an AFI screening as well.  I want to be wrong on all counts and see it in Telluride in 9 months.


AFI NAMES 2016'S BEST FILMS

Announced this afternoon are the American Film Institutes's Best Films of 2016:

Arrival Fences Hacksaw Ridge Hell or High Water La La Land Manchester Moonlight Silence Sully Zootopia

It's an impressive showing for Telluride as five of the ten films played this year's fest: Arrival, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight and Sully.

You can find more about the AFI list here from Indiewire.

Otherwise, back here on Monday...


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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AFI Fest in Full Swing-Features TFF #43 Films / Werner Herzog and His Volcanoes / Oscar Pundits Update

Welcome to Monday...

AFI IS IN FULL SWING AND FEATURES FILMS FROM TFF#43

The American Film Institutes's Film Festival began late last week and will continue through the 17th. The fest is the last festival to feature premieres of films that could find their way into the Oscar conversation before we start to hear from critic's groups.  Films such as Miss Sloane and Rules Don't Apply that have gotten a good deal of awards speculation will screen or have screened at AFI.

The National Board of Review announces their list of films in just over two weeks (Nov. 29) with the New York Critics announcing on Dec. 1 and LA critics on Dec. 4.  AFI will announce their top films on Dec. 8. Golden Globe nominations are announced on Dec. 12 and Screen Actors Guild nominations are announced Dec. 14.  The British Academy announces nominees on Jan. 10.

Other key guilds announce as follows:

Writer's Guild: Jan. 4
Directors Guild Jan. 12
Producers Guild: Jan. 10

Oscar voters begin voting for nominees on Jan. 5 and that closes Jan. 13.  Oscar nominees are announced Jan. 24.

Thanks to Sasha Stone's Awards Daily for the comprehensive calendar of awards dates.  You can find that complete list here.

At any rate, Telluride 2016 films are a significant presence at this year's AFI fest:  Included in the AFI schedule from TFF #43 are: La La Land, Bright Lights: Starring Debbie Reynolds, Fire at Sea, Toni Erdmann, Graduation, Neruda, Things to Come and Mifune: The Last Samurai.

Here's the link to the AFI Fest's lineup search function.  Also, coverage of the AFI Fest with 14 films highlighted (including Toni Erdmann) by Indiewire.



WERNER HERZOG AND HIS VOLCANOES

Werner Herzog, not surprisingly premiered his Volcano Around the World documentary, Into the Inferno, at Telluride.  Herzog's doc travels the globe and seeks to place volcanic natural phenomena into the contexts in which various cultures have interacted with them.

Indiewire's Anne Thompson reports here.

Additionally, here's the official trailer for the film:

Into the Inferno opened on Oct. 28 and is available to stream on Netflix.

OSCAR PUNDITS UPDATE

I've got a new FAC update coming for Thursday's post that will update the acting races but until then, here are the latest updated Oscar pics from two of the Oscar experts that are used for The FAC metric. 

Sasha Stone's weekly update on Friday has TFF #43 films La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight and Arrival as the top four films contending for Best Picture.  She also has Sully at #9. Best Actor candidates include: Casey Affleck/Manchester and Tom Hanks/Sully.  Actress: Emma Stone/La La Land, Amy Adams/Arrival.  Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali/Moonlight and Lucas Hedges/Manchester.  Supporting Actress: Naomie Harris/Moonlight and Michelle Williams/Manchester,  Best Director: Damien Chazelle/La La Land, Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester and Denis Villeneuve/Arrival.  Check the link above for the rest of Stone's updated predictions.

Meanwhile, The Playlist's Awards Campaign's Greg Ellwood also updated his picks:

Best Picture: La La Land, Sully, Manchester and Moonlight are his top four films.

Actor: Affleck/Manchester and Ryan Gosling/La La Land

Actress: Stone/La La Land

Supporting Actor:Ali/Moonlight

Supporting Actress: Harris/Moonlight and Williams/Manchester

Director: Chazelle/La La Land, Lonergan/Manchester and Barry Jenkins/Moonlight.

That's all I can muster for this Monday.  Return for more on Thursday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Ten (Plus) Bets #9 / Still No Fest Home / Live by Night in December? / Whispers and More Whispers / Burns for the Museum / And Congratulations

It is Friday...finally...

TEN (PLUS) BETS #9

We start today with an update of the weekly Ten Bets list that has more than ten bets.


Last week's Ten (Plus) Bets:

20) Journey Through French Cinema
19) Defying the Nazis
18) The B-Side
17) Into the Inferno
16) Julieta
15) Graduation
14) High Summer
13) Manchester by the Sea
12) Maudie
11) Una
10) Frantz
9) The Red Turtle
8) Fire at Sea
7) Moonlight
6) Bleed for This
5) Neruda
4) Things to Come
3) La La Land
2) Toni Erdmann
1) Arrival

And now, here is the latest version of Ten (Plus) Bets:

20) Journey Through French Cinema
19) Defying the Nazis
18) The B-Side
17) Into the Inferno
16) Wakefield
15) Graduation
14) Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer
13) Manchester by the Sea
12) Maudie
11) Una
10) Frantz
9) The Red Turtle
8) Fire at Sea
7) Neruda
6) Bleed for This
5) Moonlight
4) Arrival
3) La La Land
2) Things to Come
1) Toni Erdmann

Almodovar's Julieta drops off due to its TIFF designation as a North American Premiere.  I also dropped the animated French short High Summer to make way for the two films we think are in play after the latest TIFF reveal: Wakefield and Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer.



Other films that are still in somewhat serious play: The Circle, Miss Sloane, The Sense of an Ending, Exile, Peshmerga, Gold, Eternity, The Founder.

STILL NO FILM FEST HOME...

The list of films that might still be possible for a Telluride slot is getting smaller.  As of this post, these films do not have a festival berth that I'm aware of:

Rules Don't Apply (rumored for AFI)
Allied
Fences
Gold
Passengers
Miss Sloane
Live by Night (supposedly heading for a December Oscar qualifying limited release, see below)
The Accountant
Sully
The Founder
The Mercy
Passengers
Wild Oats
Eternity
Silence
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk


LIVE BY NIGHT IN DECEMBER?

A number of film outlets were all over a reported comment made by Ben Affleck's Live by Night co-star Elle Fanning to the effect that the film would be seeing the light of day before the end of 2016. That has been a train of thought for some time since Warners moved the film's announced release date up from Oct. 2017 to Jan. 13, 2017.

To the best of  my knowledge there has been no confirmation from the WB people.

Here's the Elle Fanning story:

http://theplaylist.net/elle-fanning-says-ben-afflecks-live-night-will-arrive-december-20160817/



WHISPERS AND MORE WHISPERS

Eastwood and Hanks on the set of Sully (from CowboysandIndians.com)

We've reached that time of the year when the rumor mill is beginning to crank up to full capacity in regard to TFF.  Sometimes those tidbits pan out.  Often they do not.  The latest couple of quiet little buzzes have to do with Warners debuting Clint Eastwood's Sully (with Tom Hanks) as a part of the fest.  I'm dubious.

I've also heard that there could be another Venice title that makes the trip across the Atlantic in conjunction with a tribute.  What makes this intriguing is that this film would be in addition to a film that I think is already going to play Telluride and both of them feature the same star who would be the focus of the tribute.  Further, there is the suggestion that this new "Venice/T-ride crossover" is set to play Toronto and that it's currently listed premiere status is misleading.

I'm not ready to jump on board this yet, or name the possible new film but I believe that this story has more potential to be true than the Sully whisper mentioned above.

Stay tuned...



BURNS FOR THE TELLURIDE HISTORICAL MUSEUM

Got an email earlier this week that revealed that big time Telluride supporter and frequent presenter Ken Burns will be doing a pre-fest program for the Telluride Historical Museum on Aug. 28.  An Evening with Ken Burns will be presented for the third consecutive year and will take place at The Palm Theater at Telluride High.  Admission is $25 or $20 for Museum members.

Burns will be screening some of his National Parks: America's Greatest Idea documentary.  The program starts at 6pm.

I have linked more information here:

http://www.telluridemuseum.org/pressitem/an-evening-with-ken-burns-tickets-on-sale-now/


AND CONGRATULATIONS

Greg Ellwood announced yesterday that his Awards Campaign website will now be a part of The Playlist for whom he will be covering the awards season.  Congrats Greg!

Ellwood will be one of the more than a dozen industry pros that will be a part of MTFB's annual Professionals Telluride film ratings.

Here's coverage of the move from Greg's site:

http://awardscampaign.com/2016/08/18/awards-campaign-is-moving-to-the-playlist/



That's a wrap for this Friday.

Contact MTFB at:

mpgort@gmail.com

OR on Twitter @Gort2

OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse-107846269309712/

Or leave a comment.

When They Do Your Job for You / Hidden Figures Poster Revealed / The Playlist's 50 Fall Films / Rate Films from The SHOW and Follow, Follow, Follow

Happy Tuesday World!

I think we have another Toronto announcement today...we'll see what we see...


WHEN THEY DO YOUR JOB FOR YOU

It doesn't get easier than this though the confirmation comes from a surprising source.  Werner Herzog's Into the Inferno, which I had penciled into last Friday's Ten (Plus) Bets as probable for Telluride owing to its announced premiere status from Toronto is confirmed by...wait for it...Werner Herzog.

Herzog, speaking on Mark Maron's podcast pronounced that the film would be a part of the TFF #43 lineup.  The admission was reported by a number of film outlets (see below).

It's something of a shocker, as Herzog, who has a lengthy history with the fest, has to be abundantly aware that Telluride doesn't reveal the lineup until the day before the festival begins.

Still, I'll take the confirmation and move on.

Reports of the admission from Mr. Herzog are here:

http://theplaylist.net/werner-herzog-says-volcano-doc-inferno-will-debut-telluride-2-dramatic-features-works-20160815/

https://thefilmstage.com/news/listen-to-werner-herzogs-career-spanning-talk-with-marc-maron/


HIDDEN FIGURES POSTER REVEALED

Hot on the heels of its Olympic debuting trailer the Theodore Melfi film Hidden Figures revealed a poster yesterday:

Again, you have to figure that it's not really a likely Telluride play...as Melfi (or someone purporting to be Melfi) said himself on Twitter over the weekend but there is a difference between "Not likely" and "never gonna happen".

Hidden Figures is currently scheduled to open on Jan. 13, 2017.


THE PLAYLIST'S 50 FALL FILMS

The Playlist was up yesterday with a list of 50+ films that they say are their most anticipated for this coming fall/awards season.  Probable Telluride films are well represented in the article:

Moonlight, Arrival, Manchester by the Sea, La La Land, Things to Come, Neruda, Julieta and Toni Erdmann all make the list.

Also included are a number of films with no fall film fest agenda for the moment:

Sully, Rules Don't Apply, The Accountant, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk, Allied, Silence, Miss Sloane, Fences, Collateral Beauty, Passengers, Gold and The Founder.

Some of these films aren't ready for screening.  Some will almost certainly be announced for The AFI Fest.  Some won't play a major festival at all.  I can see anywhere between none and five still showing at The SHOW.

The Playlist list is here:

http://theplaylist.net/50-anticipated-films-fall-season-20160815/#cb-content


RATE FILMS FROM THE SHOW AND FOLLOW...FOLLOW...FOLLOW

It's your annual call to rate the films you see at the Telluride Film Festival.  MTFB is once again asking YOU to participate in The People's Telluride...a gathering of film ratings from the ticket buying public at the fest.

It's simple...rate the films you see on a 1 to 5 scale (1 being awful and 5 being masterpiece) and then send those to me via email: mpgort@gmail.com or michael_speech@hotmail.com OR via the comments section here on the blog or to my twitter account @Gort2.

IT'S EASIER TO FOLLOW MTFB NOW

I've added a "FOLLOW" button to the blog page.  You'll see it in the upper right hand area of the page. Just click on it and you can make it much easier to keep up with what's going on here.

Contact MTFB at:

mpgort@gmail.com

OR on Twitter @Gort2

OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse-107846269309712/

Or leave a comment.

2016 Telluride Ten Bets #2 / Distribution: Lionsgate, Roadside and Saban / The Playlist Wish List for Fall Fests

Welcome to Friday and July, my friends...

2016 TELLURIDE TEN BETS #2

Here's last week's Ten Bets:

10) Lion (Davis, TWC, 11/25)
9) Loving (Nichols, Focus, 11/4)
8) The Red Turtle (Dudok de Wit, SPC, TBA)
7) Moonlight (Jenkins, A24, TBA)
6) American Honey (Arnold, A24, TBA)
5) Fire at Sea (Rosi, Kino Lorber, TBA)
4) The Unknown Girl (The Dardennes, Sundance/IFC, TBA)
3) Toni Erdmann (Ade, SPC, TBA)
2) The Salesman (Fahradi, Amazon/Cohen Media, TBA)
1) Wilson (Johnson, Fox Searchlight, TBA)


Not many changes this week... (Director, Distributor and U.S. release date-if known-in parenthesis)

10) Things to Come (Hansen-Love, Sundance/IFC, TBA)
9) Lion (Davis, TWC, 11/25)
8) Moonlight (Jenkins, A24, 10/21)
7) Fire at Sea (Rosi, Kino Lorber, TBA)
6) The Red Turtle (Dudok de Wit, SPC, TBA)
5) The Unknown Girl (Dardennes, Sundance/IFC, TBA)
4) American Honey (Arnold, A24, 9/30)
3) Toni Erdmann (Ade, SPC, TBA)
2) Wilson (Johnson, Fox Searchlight, TBA)
1) The Salesman (Farhadi, Amazon/Cohen Media, TBA)

In the close category: American Pastoral, Loving, La La Land, A United Kingdom, Salt and Fire, Journey Through French Cinema, Aquarius, Birth of a Nation.


DISTRIBUTION: LIONSGATE, ROADSIDE AND SABAN

This combination of companies has had the fifth largest profile at Telluride over the past six years, though they were absent in 2015, they have averaged collectively 1.25 films/year.  Here's their collective track record since 2010:

2010: Biutiful
2011: Albert Nobbs
2012: Stories We Tell
2013: All is Lost, Gloria
2014: '71, The Homesman, Mommy

So, what do they have lined up for 2016 that might be a Telluride temptation?

Lionsgate:

La La Land
American Pastoral

(I am personally discounting the chances of Deepwater Horizon, Patriots Day and Hacksaw Ridge...though that decision could be premature).  Neither the Roadside Attractions or Saban Films banners have a film lined up currently that feels Telluride-ish so if this group has a shot at the fest this year it looks like one or both of these films from the Lionsgate group.

I think both are 50/50 prospects, although the announcement last week that La La Land was going to open Venice and be in competition makes me give it a slight edge.  Frankly, I'd like both films to SHOW but, just as easily, neither of them could.

On Monday, I'll look at specialty house Kino Lorber.

THE PLAYLIST WISH LIST FOR FALL FESTS

As they do annually, The Playlist posted their 50 film wish list for the fall festival season yesterday afternoon.  In it, they make some guesses about what films will play the fest circuit and which fests. Of the 50 films, they list nine as having a chance at Telluride.  They are:

20th Century Women
Arrival
Gold
How to Talk to Girls at Parties
La La Land
Lion
A Monster Calls
Sully
Trespass Against Us

From their list, if you've read this space much this summer, you will know that I think that 20th Century Women, How to Talk to Girls, La La Land and Lion all have a shot.  The others, not so much in my estimation.

In addition to the nine films they list with a Telluride potential, they list an additional 11 films that I think have a legitimate chance but that they don't connect to T-ride.  Included are: American Pastoral, Jackie, The Lost City of Z, Moonlight, Nocturnal Animals, The Oppenheimer Strategies, The Secret Scripture, Snowden, Una, A United Kingdom and War Machine.

It should be noted that over the past couple of years The Playlist "50 Wish List" has not been particularly prescient about Telluride guesses.  Last year they tagged 13 films in the article and only two panned out.  In 2014 it was one of six.  So, grain of salt people.

Here's the link to the complete post and its 50 films.

http://theplaylist.net/50-films-hope-see-2016-fall-festivals-20160630/#cb-content


That's a wrap for Friday and for the week.  Have a good weekend and come back Monday.

Contact MTFB at:

mpgort@gmail.com

OR on Twitter @Gort2

OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse-107846269309712/

OR leave a comment...