Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
We are in the awards transition period. The critics have largely weighed in, Oscar nomination ballots are going out to the AMPAS membership (voting starts today) and the Golden Globes are being handed out on Sunday. It's time for the Guilds to make their mark. The Film Editors teed off this week with their Tuesday announcement of nominees. The Writer's Guild named their nominees yesterday and the Art Directors Guild announces today. The actors had already spoken with their SAG Award nominees announced on Dec. 14.
Coming up quickly are nominees from the Producers Guild on Jan. 10th and the Directors Guild two days later.
Here's what we learned this week. Among "Eddie" editing nominations were a good number of TFF #43 films. Drama nominees included: Arrival, Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight. La La Land was included among the nominees in the comedy feature category.
The Writers Guild nominated four TFF #43 films for theur screenplays. Moonlight, La La Land and Manchester by the Sea were nominated in the Best Original Screenplay category and Arrival was nominated as the Best Adapted Screenplay. It should be noted that Moonlight has been deemed an adapted screenplay for Oscar consideration.
TELLURIDE FILMS DOMINATE ONLINE FILM CRITICS AWARDS
The Online Film Critics Society went for Telluride 2016 films in a big way as they announced their awards on Tuesday. TFF #43 films won a total of eight of the OFCS awards.
Barry Jenkins Moonlight was the big winner with the OFCS awarding it four prizes: Best Picture, Direction and Supporting wins for Maharshala Ali and Naomie Harris.
La La Land picked up two wins for film editing and cinematography.
Manchester by the Sea's Casey Aflleck was named Best Actor and Eric Heisserer won for Best Adapted Screenplay for Arrival.
Lionsgate tweeted out a new trailer for Damien Chazelle's La La Land on Tuesday as the film continues to do well in limited release and also expands into more and more theaters. This trailer uses the John Legend song Start a Fire as the aural backdrop for scenes from the film.
Take a look at it here from YouTube:
HBO DROPS BRIGHT LIGHTS TRAILER
In light of its decision to push the premiere of the documentary Bright Lights: Starring Debboe Reynolds and Carrie Fisher up to Jan. 7th, it shouldn't be a surprise that HBO released a trailer for the doc yesterday. Here it is from YouTube:
Coverage of the trailer and the doc's premiere is here from:
Jeffrey Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere has posted an evolving listing of films (80 at the time of this post) of films suspected or confirmed for 2017 release that he calls "high end releases". From that list I have culled ten that have a reasonable chance of playing Telluride plus an additional ten that I would personally put on my Telluride 2017 wish list.
On the "could play" list:
Downsizing/Alexander Payne
Roma/Alfonso Cuaron
Wonderstruck/Todd Haynes
The Sisters Brother/Jacques Audiard
Mektoub is Meltoub/Abdellatif Kechiche
Tully/Jason Reitman
Untitled Andrey Zvyaginstev Film
The Current War/Alfonso Gomez-Rejon
Happy Ending/Michael Haneke
You Were Never Really Here/Lynne Ramsay
Wish List:
Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project
The Finest Hour/Joe Wright
Blade Runner 2049/Denis Villenueve
The Kidnapping of Edgardo Montara/Stephen Speilberg
Mother/Darren Aronofsky
Last Flag Flying/Richard Linklater
Chappaquiddick/John Curran
The Shape of Water/Guillermo Del Toro
Battle of the Sexes/Faris and Dayton
Molly's Game/Aaron Sorkin
Happy New Year to all of you who follow MTFB/FAC. 2016 has had its ups and a lot of downs. Ready to let it go with the hope (against hope) that 2017 will be better...
TAKING A LOOK AT THE MAJOR EIGHT
Here's a review of the last couple of weeks of The FAC updates for the eight major Oscar categories.
I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
TFF #43 films are inBold. The person's previous position follows its title in parentheses.
BEST PICTURE
1) La La Land (1)
2) Moonlight (2)
3) Manchester by the Sea (3)
4) Hell or High Water (5)
5) Fences (4)
6) Arrival (8)
7) Lion (6)
8) Hidden Figures (NR)
9) Hacksaw Ridge (12)
10) Silence (7)
11) Jackie (11)
12) Sully (9)
BEST DIRECTOR
1) Damien Chazelle/La La Land (1)
2) Barry Jenkins/Moonlight (2)
3) Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea (3)
4) Martin Scorsese/Silence (4)
5) Denis Villenueve/Arrival (6)
6) Denzel Washington/Fences (5)
7) Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge (NR)
8) David Mackenzie/Hell or High Water (10)
9) Garth Davis/Lion (8)
10) Pablo Larrain/Jackie (7)
BEST ACTRESS
1) Emma Stone/La La Land (1) 2) Natalie Portman/Jackie (2) 3) Annette Being/20th Century Women (3) 4) Ruth Negga/Loving (4) 5) Isabelle Huppert/Elle (7) 6) Amy Adams/Arrival (6) 7) Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins (5)
8) Taraji P. Henson/Hidden Figures (9)
9) Jessica Chastain/Miss Sloane (8)
10) Marion Cotillard/Allied (10)
BEST ACTOR
1) Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea (2)
2) Denzel Washington/Fences (1)
3) Tom Hanks/Sully (4)
4) Ryan Gosling/La La Land (3)
5) Joel Edgerton/Loving (5)
6) Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge (7)
7) Warren Beatty/Rules Don't Apply (6)
8) Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic (8)
9) Andrew Garfield/Silence (9)
10) Adam Driver/Paterson (NR)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Viola Davis/Fences (1) 2) Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea (3) 3) Naomie Harris/Moonlight (2) 4) Nicole Kidman/Lion (4) 5) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures (6) 6) Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women (5) 7) Janelle Monae/Hidden Figures (8) 8) Molly Shannon/Other People (10) 9) Helen Mirren/Eye in the Sky (7) 10) Felicity Jones/A Monster Calls (9) BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (1) 2) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water (2) 3) Dev Patel/Lion (3) 4) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins (4) 5) Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea (6) 6) Ben Foster/Hell or High Water (NR) 7) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals (7) 8) Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures (NR) 9) Issei Ogata/Silence (NR) 10) Aaron Eckhart/Bleed for This (8) BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (which includes Moonlight and Loving for the first time)
1) Manchester by the Sea (1) 2) La La Land (3) 3) Hell or High Water (4) 4) The Lobster (8) 5) 20th Century Women (6) 6) Captain Fantastic (9) 7) Jackie (5) 8) Zootopia (NR) 9) Miss Sloane (NR) 10) Florence Foster Jenkins (10)
So here's the round up if The FAC was 100% accurate when the actual nominations are announced on Jan. 24th:
Manchester by the Sea would get nominations in the Major Eight categories: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay. That might be the totality of Manchester's nominations from what I'm seeing in the other categories from the Oscar pundits. Perhaps it gets in for a film editing nomination.
Moonlight would get five nominations in these categories: Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay. Moonlight seems to also be in the discussion for possible nominations for film editing, cinematography and score.
La La Land would land five nominations in these eight categories: Best Picture, Director, Actress, Actor and Original Screenplay. I think it's like;y to land a number of other "below the line" nominations as well with chances for film editing, cinematography, costume, original score, original song (probably two noms here), production design, sound mixing and sound editing.
Arrival would land three nominations: Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay and a possible Best Actress nomination for Amy Adams. Other chances: visual effects.
Sully would get a single nomination for Tom Hanks as Best Actor but might have an additional shot at Best Picture, director and adapted screenplay.
Aaron Eckhart has a really outside shot at Best Supporting Actor for Bleed for This.
Among these eight major categories TFF #43 films would net 20 nominations with another 4 as possibilities plus as many as 14 "below the line" nominations. Additionally, you might expect to see TFF #43 nominations for Foreign Language (Toni Erdmann is a given), Documentary (Fire at Sea, The Eagle Huntress and The Ivory Trade are still in the hunt, though I expect Fire Sea has the most realistic shot at a nom. Honestly, T-ride might not see any of the docs that played there make the final five. Also, don't discount the three shorts categories.
Ultimately Telluride 2016 could/should be in the neighborhood of 30ish Oscar nominations this year which would be slightly ahead of the average for the past several years which hovers around 27 nominations.
THREE PUNDITS AND WHAT THEY TELL US ABOUT "OTHER CATEGORIES"
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily, Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention and Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter all updated their Oscar predictions on Friday so I thought without going into full FAC analysis and number crunching, I might use the prognosticating power of these three experts to point the way in the other 16 Oscar categories beyond the Major Eight. My focus, at least for this, was to look for other possible/probable nominations for TFF #43 films and I decided to only include possible nominations that all three agree are probable.
So, within that criteria, here's what I discovered:
La La Land should land an additional seven nominations for cinematography, film editing, production design, original score, two for original song (City of Stars and Audition) and sound mixing. It could also have potential nominations for costumes and sound editing for a total of between 12-14 nominations. I'm thinking 12. I also appear to think the John Legend number form the film, Start a Fire has any chance to get a nomination.
Moonlight looks good for a film editing nomination which would put its total at six. It also could have a shot at additional nominations for cinematography and original score.
Toni Erdmann appears to be the only other "lock" with an almost certain nomination for Best Foreign Language Film.
One other film that seems to have a chance at additional nominations because it appears on two of the three latest predictions from Sasha, Kris or Scott is Arrival for cinematography, film editing and visual effects.
The complete latest predictions from all three pundits are here;
Jan. 3 Editor's Guild nominations
Jan. 4 Writers Guild nominations
Jan. 5 Oscar nomination voting begins
Jan. 8 Golden Globe Awards
Jan.. 10 BAFTA nominations, Producers Guild nominations, Cinematographers Guild nominations
Jan. 12 Directors Guild nominations
Jan. 13 Oscar nomination voting closes
Jan. 24 Oscar nominations announced
BRIGHT LIGHTS GETS MOVED UP
HBO has announced that they will move up the premiere date for the documentary Bright Lights; Starring Debbie Reynolds and Carrie Fisher to Jan. 7th in light of the deaths of the mother/daughter Hollywood icons that died last week only a day apart.
The doc was originally set to premiere sometime in March. The film played Cannes prior to and New York, Chicago and AFI after TFF #43.
I have linked coverage of the HBO announcement here
Una, the film adaptation of the play Blackbird, dropped a trailer this weekend. The film is set to open in Singapore in the next few days but as yet is still without U.S. distribution.
I have provided links here to a couple of profiles/interviews with Moonlight writer/director Barry Jenkins, who is having a very, very busy awards season. Good on him, I say...
It's Thursday...the last one of 2016...aren't you glad?
THE FORCE DIMMED THIS WEEK
Carrie Fisher at this year's Telluride Film Festival
I'm not sure I can add anything new or worthy to the outpouring of grief and remembrances at the Tuesday passing of Carrie Fisher. I tweeted Tuesday my appreciation to the Telluride Film Festival because they had made it possible for an old Star Wars fan to be in the same room with Carrie with the inclusion of Bright Lights: Starring Carrie Fisher and Debbie Reynolds. The documentary was excellent and it was a once-in-a-lifetime treat to get to hear Carrie and her brother Todd talk about the film and their lives.
I also wanted to thank directors Fisher Stevens and Alexis Bloom (as I did in person in T-ride) for bringing this story to us. Bright Lights is set to screen on HBO sometime early in 2017.
Carrie was 60 when she died Tuesday. I'm a 59 year old man. That kind of sudden reminder of mortality will jolt a guy. 2016 seems to have been full of more than its share of greatness leaving us. Ali, Bowie, Prince...so many others.
I have talked with a couple of friends about the notion that we're experiencing what seems like more deaths of more culturally significant people than is normal. I have a theory about why it seems that way.
I am at the tail end of the baby boomer generation and my theory suggests that my generation, and the generations that have come after, are more susceptible to mass grief in these moments as we are generations for whom being immersed in popular culture is so much easier and, largely expected, as a part of of our normal daily routines and discourse.
The rise of television in the 60's and then the computer revolution seems to have created more pop culture icons and have made them all far more accessible. The rise of music videos in the 80's and the freedom to download popular music from your desktop is another component of this. As a result, those pop icons are much a more integral part of our lives than they have been for previous generations. Thus, we feel that crushing sense of loss more frequently for more figures than was possible for those that preceded us.
I think the addition of video, the fact that we can see the people that we admire and that enthrall us, has made it all the more dramatic. The expansion in my lifetime from a television that gave someone three channels to the multiplicity of delivery mechanisms for pop culture that we have now has magnified this.
And there are just more of us. It's a matter of sheer numbers. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that there are now 319 million of us. The 1960 census had our population at 181 million. Add those demographics to the explosion of access and it becomes another factor in this theory.
So my theory goes. The hell of it is that we'd better get used to years like 2016 because, if my theory is anywhere close to right... all of our years to come will feel like 2016...grim, I know.
Or maybe that's all just baby boomer self-centeredness. Or maybe I'm talking out of my ass.
Nevertheless, as a final exhibit, your honors, look at the flood of grief and outpouring of love that has happened over and over again in 2016 and, what seems to me, a loud and constant collective plea that this year limp to a conclusion. It overwhelms.
In closing, thanks to Carrie for being a giant part of endless hours of fascination and diversion and for proving this past September that she was every bit the bright, fierce and funny woman that I had thought she was. And, again, thanks to the TFF #43 programmers for making those moments happen.
The force dimmed this week.
I have selected a few posts that went up this week memorializing Ms. Fisher. They are linked here:
ADDENDUM: As I'm sure you heard last night, Carrie's mother and entertainment legend Debbie Reynolds died yesterday. It's just heart breaking and adds another layer of poignancy to what we were a part of this past Labor Day weekend.
THE FAC UPDATES BEST PICTURE AND BEST DIRECTOR
We're three weeks passed the last BP and BD FAC update (it was Dec. 8) so I thought that a current feel for where the Oscar experts think those two races are would be a good idea before we turn the calendar over to 2017.
I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
TFF #43 films are inBold. The person's previous position follows its title in parentheses.
BEST PICTURE
1) La La Land (1)
2) Moonlight (2)
3) Manchester by the Sea (3)
4) Hell or High Water (5)
5) Fences (4)
6) Arrival (8)
7) Lion (6)
8) Hidden Figures (NR)
9) Hacksaw Ridge (12)
10) Silence (7)
11) Jackie (11)
12) Sully (9)
Hot: Arrival, Hidden Figures, Hacksaw Ridge
Not: Silence, Sully, Loving
On the Cusp: Loving
Comment: I think Silence may be in a stronger position than some because of where Scorsese ranks on the Best Directing chart (see below). There does seem to have been a flutter in support for La La Land at the top spot due to its lack of a Best Ensemble nomination from the SAG Awards but not enough to remove it from a still solid hold on that position. Moonlight and Manchester are bunched very tightly and the distance between the top three and the next film (Hell or High Water...a great story in its rise as awards season has progressed) is substantial.
BEST DIRECTOR
1) Damien Chazelle/La La Land (1)
2) Barry Jenkins/Moonlight (2)
3) Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea (3)
4) Martin Scorsese/Silence (4)
5) Denis Villenueve/Arrival (6)
6) Denzel Washington/Fences (5)
7) Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge (NR)
8) David Mackenzie/Hell or High Water (10)
9) Garth Davis/Lion (8)
10) Pablo Larrain/Jackie (7)
Hot: Gibson and Mackenzie
Not: Larrain and Jeff Nichols/Loving
On the Cusp: Nichols and Clint Eastwood/Sully
Comment" The top four stay the same over the last three weeks. Villenueve and Washington swap spots, Chazelle, Jenkins and Lonergan are very tightly bunched.
SCENE WORK FROM MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
Michelle Williams and Casey Affleck in a clip from Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea (from YouTube)
The Wrap recently talked to actress Michelle Williams about her role in Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea. Williams is a likely Oscar nominee next month for her work in the film and she should be. She and acting partner Casey Affleck provide one of the most emotionally honest and effective scenes in any film of this year as a part of the film. The Wrap talked to Williams about the film and about that scene in particular in this story posted yesterday.
Admittedly, I haven't seen Viola Davis who is everyone's front runner for Best Supporting Actress this year in Fences but she's got a high bar to get over in Williams' performance.
Manchester by the Sea is in theaters now.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well) FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page COMMENT to the blog.
AFI IS IN FULL SWING AND FEATURES FILMS FROM TFF#43
The American Film Institutes's Film Festival began late last week and will continue through the 17th. The fest is the last festival to feature premieres of films that could find their way into the Oscar conversation before we start to hear from critic's groups. Films such as Miss Sloane and Rules Don't Apply that have gotten a good deal of awards speculation will screen or have screened at AFI.
The National Board of Review announces their list of films in just over two weeks (Nov. 29) with the New York Critics announcing on Dec. 1 and LA critics on Dec. 4. AFI will announce their top films on Dec. 8. Golden Globe nominations are announced on Dec. 12 and Screen Actors Guild nominations are announced Dec. 14. The British Academy announces nominees on Jan. 10.
Oscar voters begin voting for nominees on Jan. 5 and that closes Jan. 13. Oscar nominees are announced Jan. 24.
Thanks to Sasha Stone's Awards Daily for the comprehensive calendar of awards dates. You can find that complete list here.
At any rate, Telluride 2016 films are a significant presence at this year's AFI fest: Included in the AFI schedule from TFF #43 are: La La Land, Bright Lights: Starring Debbie Reynolds, Fire at Sea, Toni Erdmann, Graduation, Neruda, Things to Come and Mifune: The Last Samurai.
Werner Herzog, not surprisingly premiered his Volcano Around the World documentary, Into the Inferno, at Telluride. Herzog's doc travels the globe and seeks to place volcanic natural phenomena into the contexts in which various cultures have interacted with them.
Additionally, here's the official trailer for the film:
Into the Inferno opened on Oct. 28 and is available to stream on Netflix.
OSCAR PUNDITS UPDATE
I've got a new FAC update coming for Thursday's post that will update the acting races but until then, here are the latest updated Oscar pics from two of the Oscar experts that are used for The FAC metric.
Sasha Stone's weekly update on Friday has TFF #43 films La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight and Arrival as the top four films contending for Best Picture. She also has Sully at #9. Best Actor candidates include: Casey Affleck/Manchester and Tom Hanks/Sully. Actress: Emma Stone/La La Land, Amy Adams/Arrival. Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali/Moonlight and Lucas Hedges/Manchester. Supporting Actress: Naomie Harris/Moonlight and Michelle Williams/Manchester, Best Director: Damien Chazelle/La La Land, Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester and Denis Villeneuve/Arrival. Check the link above for the rest of Stone's updated predictions.
Welcome to Sunday and Day Three of the 43rd Telluride Film Festival
SUNDAY TBA'S BY VENUE
Galaxy
9:00am Bleed for This (replacing Amazing Grace)
9:30pm Sully
The Zog
9:30 am Arrival
10:00pm The B-Side (Free)
Masons
12:45 Graduation
Nugget
4:30pm Through the Wall
10:00pm Things to Come
Pierre
4:00pm Frantz
6:30pm Student Prints
9:15pm Toni Erdmann
DAY TWO COMMENT
Opened with Sully which I really enjoyed much more than I expected to. Nice turn by Hanks. Maybe he will be in the Best Actor conversation.
Then Bright Lights which I also enjoyed. Very warm and entertaining. Highlight was during the and A when Debbie Reynolds phoned in to her son Todd Fisher and was able to speak briefly to those of us in the theater.
Then caught Barry Jenkins Moonlight. Moving with fine performances across the board. Naomie Harris could be in the Supporting Actress picture.
Ended the evening with Denis Villenieuve's Arrival and the Amy Adams tribute. Adams was a joy in the pre-show Q and A. It'll be interesting to see if Oscar voters warm to the SciFi story.
DAY THREE SCHEDULE (at least as it stands now)
Toni Erdmann
Una
Wakefield
Norman
Winners so far: La La Land and (surprise) Sully. Liking Arrival, Moonlight. Still not sold on Manchester.
DAY TWO IMAGES
Clint Eastwood exiting after Sully:
Amy Adams at her Tribute:
Carrie Fisher following Bright Lights:
Drector and cast of Sully at Q and A (Aaron Eckhardt, Laura Linney, Clint Eastwood and Tom Hanks):
It's Saturday and Day Two of the 43rd Telluride Film Festival.
DAY ONE IN THE BOOKS
Patron Brunch yesterday was great. Ate with good friends and made some new ones. Mark Helfrich was kind enough to introduce me to one of this year's tribute recipients: Casey Affleck:
After that I made a quick stop to the Press Orientation where probably the most important news was that there are no planned "Sneaks" for this year.
Following that I made my way up to the Chuck Jones for the Patron screening of Damien Chazelle's La La Land. I'll admit that a built from scratch movie musical has had me dubious but it won me over. Great work from Ryan Gosling and particularly Emma Stone. If anyone runs into Emma this weekend...pass it on MTFB thinks she's fantastic in this. Also, tell her that I'd like to meet her too.
Grabbed a quick kabob at the Opening Night Feed and then attended the tribute to Casey Affleck followed by a screening of Manchester by the Sea. This title has had a lot of buzz since it popped at Sundance back in January. Honestly I found it overly long. It just seemed like the first act was really lethargic. That perception wasn't aided by the fact that The Palm was a sauna.
The last half hour or so is well done. Michelle Williams is quite good and Affleck is as well. Also young actor Lucas Hedges hangs with the adults admirably.
Final note about the film: the music was overbearing to the point of distraction.
Overall for the moment MTFB says La La Land 4/5 and Manchester 2.5/5
For those whose minds run to such things, my guess is that La La Land will likely be a big hit thus weekend and consequently make some fairly serious noise when the talk turns to Oscar. Score, Song, possibly the Sound Editing and Mixing categories. Maybe Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography and Film Editing. Gosling could Squeeze in for Actor but that's going to be a tougher sell.
Manchester's Affleck and Williams have been getting mentioned for Actor and Supporting Actress since Sundance but...Best bets, at least in my view are a nod for Williams and an Original Screenplay nod for Kenneth Lonergan. Affleck could get in but, like Gosling, the competition is probably going to be brutal.
I'll be interested to hear what some of the real Oscar pundits have to say.
