Screen Actors Guild Awards: Another Oscar Re-shuffle? / Rooney Mara Talks Carol / Feinberg's Latest Forecast

Good Monday and welcome to February!  We're down to less than four weeks in this Oscar season and the Best Picture race took another turn over the weekend...


SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS: ANOTHER OSCAR RE-SHUFFLE?

The Screen Actors Guild Awards were handed out late Saturday night for both film and television work.  Tom McCarthy's Spotlight won the Best Ensemble Award besting The Big Short and possibly indicating a continuing tight battle for the Best Picture Oscar.  The Big Short was perceived by many Oscar experts as having pulled into a slight lead owing to its Producers Guild Award from last weekend.  A SAG win last for ensemble would have likely strengthened that view but the win for Spotlight has caused some re-evaluation yet again.

Add to all of this that the Directors Guild announces their award this coming weekend and it could very easily award neither McCarthy or The Big Short's Adam McKay.  Plausible cases can be made that any of the other DGA nominees might pick up the trophy: Inarritu/The Reverent, Miller/Mad Max: Fury Road or Scott/The Martian.  So, the DGA could provide a sign of clarity if either McKay or McCarthy should win, or confusion should any of those other three take the award.  Perhaps a Miller or Inarittu win get their films back near the top on the Best Picture speculation.  It'll be fun reading those tea leaves next Monday.

Meanwhile, in addition to Spotlight, other TFF #42 alumni picked up SAG Awards Saturday night as Brie Larson won Best Actress for Room and Idris Elba won Best Supporting Actor for Beasts of No Nation.

Non-TFF #42 winners were Leonardo DiCaprio for Best Actor for The Revenant and Alicia Vikander for Supporting Actress for The Danish Girl.  Mad Max:Fury Road picked up the award for Stunt Ensemble as it should have.

Honestly, for what's its worth, I still semi-believe Spotlight is going to win Best Picture on Oscar night.

I have linked complete coverage and analysis of The SAG results here from The Hollywood Reporter, The Film Stage, The Playlist and Deadline:


http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/sag-awards-spotlight-victory-confirms-860909

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/2016-sag-winners-complete-list-856945/item/outstanding-performance-by-a-female-846007

http://thefilmstage.com/news/spotlight-leonardo-dicaprio-and-brie-larson-lead-2016-sag-award-winners/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/sag-award-winners-spotlight-wins-best-ensemble-leonardo-dicaprio-idris-elba-brie-larson-are-also-winners-20160130

http://deadline.com/2016/01/sag-awards-analysis-a-big-night-for-netflix-diversity-repeat-winners-and-oscar-front-runners-hammond-1201693646/



ROONEY MARA TALKS CAROL

Best Supporting Actress nominee Rooney Mara talks about Carol in this half hour YouTube video proffered by The Weinstein Company last week.  Enjoy!

Rooney Mara on Carol via YouTube

FEINBERG'S LATEST FORECAST

The Hollywood Reporter's Oscar expert, Scott Feinberg posted his latest Oscar prognostications late last week and they came prior to Saturday night's SAG results.

Feinberg's analysis suggests that TFF #42 films are positioned thusly:

Best Pic: Spotlight trailing The Big Short and Room is in his #5 spot.

Director: McCarthy/Spotlight is #4 and Abrahamson/Room is #5

Actor: Fassbender/Steve Jobs is #5

Actress: Larson/Room at #1 and Rampling/45 Years at #3 and Blanchett/Carol at #4

Supporting Actor: Ruffalo/Spotlight at #2

Supporting Actress: Mara/Carol #3, McAdams/Spotlight at #4 and Winslet/Steve Jobs at #5

Adapted Screenplay: Room at #3, Carol at #5

Original Screenplay: Spotlight at #1

Animated Feature: Anomalisa is at #2
Documentary Feature: The Look of Silence is #4 and Winter on Fire is at #5
Foreign Language Film: Son of Saul at #1
Cinematography: Carol at #4
Costumes: Carol at #1
Film Editing: Spotlight at #5
Original Score: Carol at #4


If Scott is right TFF #42 films pick up four Oscars on Feb. 28.


Come back for more on Thursday!

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The PGA and The SAG/New Imitation Trailer/Birdwomen/Hateful Eight Filming Begins

Good Monday morning!  The Oscar race took an unexpected jog over the weekend...

THE PGA AND THE SAG

Alejandro G. Inarritu's "Birdman" was named the Best Picture of the year on Saturday night by The Producers Guild of America in a very unexpected turn of events.  "Richard Linklater's "Boyhood" was thought to be a pretty solid favorite going into the ceremony and it was generally expected that it would just be one more jewel in its crown on its way to its ultimate Oscar coronation.  Now, that's all called into question as one of the most competitive and unpredictable Oscar races in recent years continued to unwind.

Then, Sunday evening, The Screen Actors Guild named "Birdman" Best Ensemble.  That result was expected and it does add some fuel to a new fire that could presage a "Birdman" Oscar upset.

After a season that has increasingly looked as if "Boyhood" would snap the string of Best Picture Oscar winners having played at Telluride, it looks as if there is still at least a reasonable chance that the "T-ride" effect might remain in tact. Recall the following Best Picture winners from the last few years:

2008-"Slumdog Millionaire"
2009-"The Hurt Locker"
2010- "The King's Speech"
2011-"The Artist"
2012- "Argo"
2013- "12 Years a Slave"

Five of the last six and the last four BP winners in a row came through Telluride.

And don't discount the still real possibility that Best Picture might still end up being Morten Tyldum's "The Imitation Game".  I still feel like that's a realistic scenario.

One other thing...about an hour before Saturday night's PGA announcement, as I was traveling back home from the Edmond Santa Fe Invitational speech tournament and following the PGA announcements for all the other categories (including a Best Doc win for semi-Telluride presentation "Life Itself"...it played the night before this year's fest started in Elk Park)...I tapped out the following tweet...believe me or not..."Got a feeling some weird voodoo might go down at the PGA tonight...Birdman? Imitation?...just a feeling...but..."

Then I read it again and deleted it.   I thought, no one will believe this and I'll look like a fool.  Now, pretty likely I'll not be believed that I wrote the tweet to begin with...but it's true.  I swear!

Nevertheless, the Oscar Race is back on kiddos...

Take a look at PGA coverage from HitFix/InContention , Awards Daily and The Hollywood Reporter here:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/birdman-breaking-bad-fargo-win-2015-pga-awards

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/01/birdman-takes-the-producers-guild-in-a-surprise/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/pga-awards-birdman-upsets-boyhood-766661


Meanwhile, as to the rest of the SAG winners...three categories went according to expectations but Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything surprised for Best actor over favorite Michael Keaton so that category likely has a new frontrunner.  My bet is that Oscar's Best Actor race is actually too close to call right now.  As of this morning, I still believe Keaton could win.

The other individual categories went:

Best Supporting Actress- Patricia Arquette/Boyhood
Best Supporting Actor/JK Simmons/Whiplash
Best Actress: Julianne Moore/Still Alice

Take a look at some post SAG analysis here from The Hollywood Reporter and Gold Derby:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/sag-awards-birdman-weekend-continues-767052

http://www.goldderby.com/news/8327/sag-awards-winners-screen-actors-guild-entertainment-13579086-story.html


NEW IMITATION TRAILER

The Weinstein Company keeps the PR machinery running full tilt for 8 time Oscar nominee Morten Tyldum's "The Imitation Game" with a new trailer that popped this week.  Check it with this link:

https://amp.twimg.com/v/b6755761-f721-449f-b93f-1e3f7b1f2255



BIRDWOMEN

Take a look at this video featurette focusing on the women of "Birdman"  via Anne Thompson at Thompson on Hollywood:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/watch-meet-the-women-of-birdman-exclusive-20150122


HATEFUL EIGHT BEGINS FILMING

We've been telling you for while that Quentin Taratino and the crew for his new film "The Hateful Eight" was on the ground in the Telluride area.  Now, any number of film news outlets report that principal photography has actually begun.  For your entertainment, here is that story from TOH:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/production-begins-on-quentin-tarantinos-the-hateful-eight-20150123

And, a pic from Samuel L. Jackson's Facebook page:

That's Kurt Russell on the left...seriously...

SAG Nominations

Screen Actor's Guild nominations will be out this morning. What will they tell us? The actor's branch is the largest branch in the Academy...so, perhaps some insight this morning for the 4 acting races as well as Best Picture.