Oscar in the Rear View-Birdman Wins Best Picture

Good Monday everyone,

OSCAR IN THE REVIEW

The 87th Academy Awards closed the awards season last night with Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's  "Birdman" (TFF 41) winning the big prize for Best Picture.  "Birdman" also won for Direction, Original Screenplay and Cinematography.

Those were four of the seven won by Telluride programmed films.  The others were single trophies for "Feast"-Best Animated Short, "The Imitation Game"-Best Adapted Screenplay and "Ida" (TFF #40)-Best Foreign Language Film.

For the fifth consecutive year and the sixth time out of the last seven years, the Best Picture winner ran through Telluride:

2008-Slumdog Millionaire
2010- The King's Speech
2011- The Artist
2012- Argo
2013-12 Years a Slave
2014- Birdman

Other winners from Sunday night were:

"The Grand Budapest Hotel"- Best Production Design, Best Costumes. Best Makeup/Hair, Best Original Score for a total of four wins to tie "Birdman" for the largest number of wins.

"Whiplash" picked up three awards: Best Supporting Actor-J.K. Simmons,  Best Film Editing and Best Sound Mixing.

No other film had more than one win including the film that was thought to be the co-frontrunner with "Birdman", "Boyhood".  "Boyhood" won only Patricia Arquette's Best Supporting Actress trophy.

Other winners:

Best Actor; Eddie Redmayne/"The Theory of Everything"
Best Actress: Julianne Moore/"Still Alice"
Best Doc: "Citizenfour"
Best Adapted Screenplay: "The Imitation Game"
Best Sound Editing: "American Sniper"
Best Visual Effects: "Interstellar"
Best Song: "Glory" from "Selma"
Best Animated Feature: "Big Hero 6"
Best Foreign Language Film: "Ida"
Best Animated Short: "Feast"
Best Short Doc: "Crisis Hotline"
Best Live Action Short: "The Phone Call"


Ina very weird turn, each of the eight Best Picture nominees won at least one Oscar.

The FAC went 20/24 on the night for 83% success on predictions.  The FAC missed Film Editing, Sound Mixing, Original Score and Animated Feature.

That's it for Oscar coverage for this year.  The Blog returns to its full time obsession with the Telluride Film Festival and the possible players for TFF #42.

Thanks for playing...

Sixteen Oscar Categories/The Big Eight Again/Final Predictions from the Experts

Good Thursday Everyone...Oscar happens in 3 days!

SIXTEEN OSCAR CATEGORIES

Here's where The Film Awards Clearinghouse is as far the "below-the-line" Oscar categories are concerned.

The FAC uses the published predictions of the following to develop its list of likely Oscar winners:

Kristopher Tapley/InContention/HitFix

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Bred Brevet/Rope of Silicon

Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

Peter Knegt/IndieWire

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Telluride #41 films are Bold. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) How to Train Your Dragon 2
2) Big Hero 6
3) The Boxtrolls
4) The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
5) Song of the Sea

Comment:  "Dragon's" lead is substantial.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Citizenfour
2) Virunga
3) The Last Days of Vietnam
4) Finding Vivian Maier
5) Salt of the Earth

Comment: It's a huge surprise if "Citizenfour" doesn't win.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Ida
2) Wild Tales
3) Leviathan
4) Timbuktu
5) Tangerines

Comment:  "Ida" is out front, but any of the top three films could win.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Birdman
2) The Grand Budapest Hotel
3) Mr. Turner
4) Unbroken
5) Ida

Comment: "Birdman" easily.  Lubezki wins second in a row.

BEST COSTUMES

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Into the Woods
3) Mr. Turner
4) Malificent
5) Inherent Vice

Comment: "Budapest" is likely but "Into the Woods" could surprise.

BEST FILM EDITING

1) Boyhood
2) Whiplash
3) American Sniper
4) The Grand Budapest Hotel
5) The Imitation Game

Comment: "Boyhood's" perceived lead is huge.  Personally, I could see a "Whiplash" upset here.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Guardians of the Galaxy
3) Foxcatcher

Comment:  A "Budapest" win is very likely but not a slam dunk.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel (tie)
2) The Theory of Everything
3) The Imitation Game
4) Interstellar
5) Mr. Turner

Comment: This race is a dead heat with "Budapest" getting the edge based on #1 positions among the experts I analyze.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Glory/Selma
2) I'm not Gonna Miss You/I'll Be Me
3) Everything is Awesome/The LEGO Movie
4) Lost Stars/Begin Again
5) Grateful/Beyond the Lights

Comment: "Glory"   has the edge in a notoriously difficult category to predict.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Into the Woods
3) Mr. Turner
4) The Imitation Game
5) Interstellar

Comment: "Budapest" with a substantial edge here.

BEST SOUND EDITING

1) American Sniper
2) Birdman
3) Interstellar
4) Unbroken
5) The Hobbit: Smaug

Comment:  "Sniper" has a solid lead.

BEST SOUND MIXING

1) American Sniper
2) Birdman
3) Whiplash
4) Interstellar
5) Unbroken

Comment: "Sniper's" position is less secure here as opposed to Sound Editing...

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Interstellar
2) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
3) Guardians of the Galaxy
4) Captain America: The Winter Soldier
5) X-Men: Days of Future Past

Comment: This is a close race between the top three in the category.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) The Bigger Picture (3 way tie)
2) Feast
2) The Dam Keeper
4) A Single Life
5) Me and My Moulton

Comment: This race is too close to call between all three of the top listed films.  "Bigger Picture" got The FAC nod as it's listed at the top by two of the experts.  Frankly, I'm leaning toward "The Dam Keeper".

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Crisis Hotline
2) Joanna
3) The Reaper
4) White Earth
5) Our Curse

Comment: a two film race between "Crisis" and "Joanna".

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) The Phone Call
2) Parveneh
3) Boogaloo and Graham
4) Butter Lamp
5) Aya

Comment: "Phone Call" with a slight edge in a category that any of the five could win.


THE BIG EIGHT AGAIN

This is a re-post of the Big Eight categories that I posted on Sunday.  EXPECT AN UPDATE ON OSCAR MORNING!!!

BEST PICTURE

1) Birdman
2) Boyhood
3) The Imitation Game
4) American Sniper
5) The Grand Budapest Hotel
6) Selma
7) The Theory of Everything
8) Whiplash

Comment:  "Birdman" and "Boyhood" swap spots at the top of the chart as a result of "Birdman" guild wins in the past few eeks (PGA, DGA, SAG) but it is soooooo close.  The metric I use, has them separated by one point...ONE.  Four experts say "Bird": Feinberg, Brevet, Davis and Knegt. Stone, Tapley and Thompson have "Boyhood" on top.  It's a nail biter.

FURTHER NOTE: Since Sunday's original post, Tapley has gone back to a "Birdman" choice, giving the Inarritu film a little breathing room.

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Richard Linklater/Boyhood
2) Alejandro Inarritu/Birdman
3) Wes Anderson/The Grand Budapest Hotel
4) Morten Tyldum/The Imitation Game
5) Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher

Comment:  Linklater stays on top here but, again, the separation is ONE POINT between he and Inarritu.  Inarritu's DGA win weighs heavily in the closeness of this race as well.  There is an increasing speculation that The Academy may well split picture and director this year as it did last year.  That'd be weird, but the season has been weird.  What's weirder is that buzz cuts both ways with some in the biz suggesting a Bird BP win with a Linklater directing Oscar and others doing a "180" and suggesting a "Boyhood" BP win and the directing trophy to go to Inarritu.  My personal feeling, perhaps only transitionally, is that Bird/Inarritu are going to win both.

BEST ACTOR

1) Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything
2) Michael Keaton/Birdman
3) Bradley Cooper/American Sniper
4) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game
5) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher

Comment:  Redmayne's lead has opened up a bit over the last couple of weeks but it's still not enough to declare him a lock for Oscar on Sunday night.  I still think Keaton has a shot.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Julianne Moore/Still Alice
2) Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything
3) Reese Witherspoon/Wild
4) Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl
5) Marion Cotillard/Two Days One Night

Comment: One of the three acting trophies that are locked up.  Moore wins.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Patricia Arquette/Boyhood
2) Emma Stone/Birdman
3) Kiera Knightley/The Imitation Game
4) Laura Dern/Wild
5) Meryl Streep/Into the Woods

Comment:  Ms. Arquette will have an Oscar to take to the CSI: Cyber set next week.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) JK Simmons/Whiplash
2) Edward Norton/Birdman
3) Ethan Hawke/Boyhood
4) Mark Ruffalo/Foxcatcher
5) Robert Duvall/The Judge

Comment: JK wins.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Whiplash
2) American Sniper
3) The Imitation Game
4) The Theory of Everything
5) Inherent Vice

Comment:  This is a competitive category with "Sniper" moving up the chart strongly over the past couple of weeks.  I could see this landing for any of the five.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Birdman
3) Boyhood
4) Nightcrawler
5) Foxcatcher

Comment: Also an uber competitive category.  "Budapest"  edges past "Birdman" but it's very, very close.  Also, don't count out a "Boyhood" win here.

FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

I'm linking the "final" Oscar predictions here from any number of Oscarologists some of which I use for The FAC, some I don't.  I'll update the "Finals" section as we go through the rest of the week...

Gurus of Gold:

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/02/gurus-o-gold-the-final-vote-every-category-1-of-2/

Awards Circuit/Clayton Davis:

http://www.awardscircuit.com/2015/02/18/oscars-2015-will-winshould-win-mike-ward/

The Hollywood Reporter/Scott Feinberg and Todd McCarthy:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-predictions-2015-who-will-774490

The Wrap/Steve Pond:

http://www.thewrap.com/oscars-24-final-will-win-should-win-predictions-birdman-boyhood-budapest-top-baffling-year/

IndieWire/Oliver Lyttleton:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/who-should-win-who-will-win-predicting-the-2015-oscars-20150218

Deadline/Pete Hammond:

http://deadline.com/2015/02/oscar-predictions-2015-who-will-win-academy-awards-1201374854/


Again, a FINAL FAC ON SUNDAY...

And Down the Stretch They Come/The Film Awards Clearinghouse: Less than a Week to Go/Writers Guild Awards/Berlin Winners/Birdman, Wild and Imitation Game Pieces/ Cannes Serious Speculation

Good Monday World...


AND DOWN THE STRETCH THEY COME

Well...we're less than a week from answering all the Oscar questions.  Some categories are locked up (Best Actress, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress).  Some categories are really thrilling: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Screenplays.  Some are obscure: Shorts: Feature, Documentary, Animated. Nevertheless, by this time next week, I'll be posting the annual Oscar aftermath/analysis and we'll all find things about which to be pleased, puzzled and outraged.

Then it'll start up again.

Honestly, it's really already started again with the Berlin fest concluding (see report below) and Cannes peeking around the corner.  We've already had a slew of "most anticipated" film lists for 2015 to chew over.  Once Oscar 2015 is in the rear view, we'll have some peeps that'll begin the early speculation about Oscar 2016.  Also coming, and in earnest, speculation about what films make the Cannes lineup and with that my Telluride #42 analysis/speculation will get more serious as well.

It's been a truly intriguing season and fun too.  When Telluride #41 was over, my favorite film of the weekend was Inarritu's "Birdman".  My belief at the time was that Keaton was going to be really hard to beat for Best Actor and that Inarritu might be have a real shot at Best Director and Original Screenplay but that the film itself might just be outside of The Academy's Best Picture comfort zone.  Morten Tyldum's "The Imitation Game" seemed like the most likely BP film from Telluride.

Now, at less than a week before the envelopes are open, it appears to be a two film dead heat between The Bird and The Boy (Richard Linklater's "Boyhood").  You'll see how tight it looks on the chart below.  After last year's down-to- the- wire battle between "12 Years a Slave" and "Gravity" I anticipated that we'd have a much less competitive race this year and for most of the season, it looked that way as almost every prognosticator thought "Boyhood" was the inevitable Best Picture winner. But with "Birdman's" strong Guild showing, the calculations have changed and it is, again, very, very close.

"Boyhood's" BAFTA wins last weekend seem to have turned the pundits away from a wholesale stampede to crown "Birdman" Best Picture and so, here we are.  It's a squeaker, it would seem, and The Academy's use of a preferential ballot will tell the tale.  Where do the votes go from the down ballot films once they're eliminated?  If this week's FAC is to be believed, "Whiplash" looks like the first film that'll drop off the ballot...what will its supporters have in that #2 spot?  Those votes will be re-apportioned to remaining films.

There is a threshold percentage that a film has to maintain in each round to stay in contention (I'm not certain what that is) but this process goes on until some film hits 50% plus one of the total #1 votes after a round of re-apportioning and that's your winner.

So, if all the "Whiplash" voters put "Birdman" at #2...the Bird gets much closer to flying.

A number of the real Oscar blogger types have run simulations.  I believe InContention and The Wrap have.  So, if you have an interest in a deeper look at the process, you might look at both of those blogs.  They're in my list of linked sights to the right of this column.

Personally, I still haven't caught "Boyhood".  It might really send me over the moon and I know I'll get there eventually (I actually nearly watched it Friday night but opted for "Nightcrawler" instead.  Was not disappointed.  A very good film and Jake Gyllenhaal gives what might be his best performance).  So, it doesn't make a lot of sense that I'm hoping for a "Birdman" win on Sunday night.  Maybe, with a "Boyhood" viewing, I might conclude that it really is the best film of the year.  But I doubt it.  I said in T-ride last Labor Day that I thought "Birdman" was a masterpiece and Inarritu's best film and I still think that's true.  Besides, I want the Telluride string to continue...

Last note and then it's onto the FAC for the eight major categories...

Right at this minute, I've got a warm feeling about The Bird's chances and I mean beyond Best Picture.  I have a feeling it might have a big night: Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay and Cinematography.  Maybe one other.  Of course, that feeling could just as easily pass by tonight and go through multiple permutations by Sunday night...

THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE WITH LESS THAN A WEEK TO GO-THE BIG EIGHT

Here's the latest Oscar snapshot from The Film Awards Clearinghouse for the eight most anticipated categories.

The FAC uses the published predictions of the following to develop its list of likely Oscar winners:

Kristopher Tapley/InContention/HitFix

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Bred Brevet/Rope of Silicon

Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

Peter Knegt/IndieWire

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Telluride #41 films are Bold.  Telluride has 18 nominations form these eight major categories.

BEST PICTURE

1) Birdman
2) Boyhood
3) The Imitation Game
4) American Sniper
5) The Grand Budapest Hotel
6) Selma
7) The Theory of Everything
8) Whiplash

Comment:  "Birdman" and "Boyhood" swap spots at the top of the chart as a result of "Birdman" guild wins in the past few eeks (PGA, DGA, SAG) but it is soooooo close.  The metric I use, has them separated by one point...ONE.  Four experts say "Bird": Feinberg, Brevet, Davis and Knegt. Stone, Tapley and Thompson have "Boyhood" on top.  It's a nail biter.

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Richard Linklater/Boyhood
2) Alejandro Inarritu/Birdman
3) Wes Anderson/The Grand Budapest Hotel
4) Morten Tyldum/The Imitation Game
5) Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher

Comment:  Linklater stays on top here but, again, the separation is ONE POINT between he and Inarritu.  Inarritu's DGA win weighs heavily in the closeness of this race as well.  There is an increasing speculation that The Academy may well split picture and director again this year as it did last year.  That'd be weird, but the season has been weird.  What's weirder is that buzz cuts both ways with some in the biz suggesting a Bird BP win with a Linklater directing Oscar and others doing a "180" and suggesting a "Boyhood" BP win and the directing trophy to go to Inarritu.  My personal feeling, as mentioned above...and perhaps only transitionally, is that Bird/Inarritu are going to win both.

BEST ACTOR

1) Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything
2) Michael Keaton/Birdman
3) Bradley Cooper/American Sniper
4) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game
5) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher

Comment:  Redmayne's lead has opened up a bit over the last couple of weeks but it's still not enough to declare him a lock for Oscar on Sunday night.  I still think Keaton has a shot.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Julianne Moore/Still Alice
2) Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything
3) Reese Witherspoon/Wild
4) Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl
5) Marion Cotillard/Two Days One Night

Comment: One of the three acting trophies that are locked up.  Moore wins.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Patricia Arquette/Boyhood
2) Emma Stone/Birdman
3) Kiera Knightley/The Imitation Game
4) Laura Dern/Wild
5) Meryl Streep/Into the Woods

Comment:  Ms. Arquette will have an Oscar to take to the CSI: Cyber set next week.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) JK Simmons/Whiplash
2) Edward Norton/Birdman
3) Ethan Hawke/Boyhood
4) Mark Ruffalo/Foxcatcher
5) Robert Duvall/The Judge

Comment: JK wins.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Whiplash
2) American Sniper
3) The Imitation Game
4) The Theory of Everything
5) Inherent Vice

Comment:  This is a competitive category with "Sniper" moving up the chart strongly over the past couple of weeks.  I could see this landing for any of the five.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Birdman
3) Boyhood
4) Nightcrawler
5) Foxcatcher

Comment: Also an uber competitive category.  "Budapest"  edges past "Birdman" but it's very, very close.  Also, don't count out a "Boyhood" win here.

Other notes:

There's some talk that "Whiplash" could come out of the night with the most Oscar wins.  Best Supporting Actor is a lock and Editing looks fairly likely.  A win for Adapted Screenplay isn't out of the question and it has to be a serious contender for Sound Mixing.  That's four of the five it's nominated for and that might be the biggest haul of the night (last year that honor went to "Gravity").

There's another school of thought that all eight of the Best Picture nominated films might walk away with at least one trophy on Sunday night.  That would be really unusual but I can see it happening.

I still can't grasp how "Foxcatcher" missed a Best Picture nomination.  Noms for direction, screenplay, actor and supporting actor...but not Best Picture.  It doesn't make a lot of sense.  But, then it IS Oscar..."sense" don't figure into it...pardon the grammar.

COMING THURSDAY...ALL 24 OSCAR CATEGORIES RANKED FOR WINNERS IN THE ALMOST FINAL FAC!!!


WRITERS GUILD ANNOUNCES

The Writers Guild of America announced the winners of their awards for 2014 Saturday.  TFF #41 film "The Imitation Game" by Graham Moore won Best Adapted Screenplay.  Wes Anderson's "The Grand Budapest Hotel" won Best Original Screenplay.  The WGA isn't always the best predictor of the Oscar winner in those categories due its stringent eligibility rules.  For example, "Birdman" was ineligible for consideration making "Budapest's" win less definitive.  Writers Guild coverage is linked here:

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/wga-awards-winners-2015-screenplay-tv-drama-comedy-1201434302/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/wga-awards-winners-list-773595

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/wga-awards-what-happened-at-773614

http://www.ew.com/article/2015/02/14/grand-budapest-hotel-and-imitation-game-win-wga-awards?hootPostID=c9532e7a922c816cefc0e745703441e5


BERLIN HAS WINNERS

The Berlin Film Fest came to an end Saturday with the announcement of award winners.  The Golden Bear was won by guerrilla Iranian film maker Jafar Panahi's "Taxi".  The film maker whose work is banned in Iran and yet continues to make films and smuggle them out of the country was recognized for his docu-drama.  Pablo Larrain's "The Club" was winner of the Silver Bear while acting prizes went to Charlotte Rampling and Tom Courtenay for Andrew Haigh's "45 Years".

Frankly, I think all three films mentioned above, in addition to Bill Condon's "Mr. Holmes" all have a real shot to make the trip to Telluride over Labor Day.

Linked below is some serious Berlin Awards coverage:

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/berlin-film-festival-golden-bear-winners-announced-1201434184/

http://www.indiewire.com/article/jafar-panahis-taxi-wins-the-golden-bear-in-berlin-20150214

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/02/taxi-and-45-years-top-winners-at-berlinale/

http://www.thewrap.com/jafar-panahi-wins-berlin-film-fests-golden-bear-for-taxi/

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/jafar-panahis-taxi-wins-golden-bear-at-2015-berlin-film-festival


BIRDMAN, WILD TAKES AND IMITATION GAME PIECES

As noted above, we're coming down the Oscar homestretch and I have linked some more of the late-in-the-game pieces for "Birdman", "Wild Tales"  and "The Imitation Game" here.

The first "Birdman" piece focuses on an extended clip from the film.  Variety has that here:

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/birdman-extended-scene-keaton-vs-the-critic-1201432945/

Meanwhile, Kristopher Tapley at InContention "digs a little deeper" into the film here:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/exclusive-dig-a-little-deeper-into-birdman-with-the-oscars-on-the-horizon

The New York Times published this "Making of" piece about Damian Szifron's Oscar nominated "Wild Tales" which is wildly considered the only film with a shot to deny "Ida" the Foreign Language Oscar.  It's here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/15/movies/awardsseason/the-making-of-wild-tales-an-oscar-nominee.html



Finally, two pieces both focused on "The Imitation Game" helmer and Oscar nominated Morten Tyldum.  One from IndieWire and the other from Gold Derby:


http://www.indiewire.com/awardsspotlight/mortem-tyldum-explains-why-alan-turing-was-the-right-subject-for-his-first-english-language-film-20150206

http://goldderby.libsyn.com/oscar-nominee-morten-tyldum-on-imitation-game-alan-turing-sex-and-awards


CANNES SERIOUS SPECULATION

And as mentioned above as well, the serious speculation about what will unspool at Cannes is heating up and took the form of this post from Cineuropa this week.  It's interesting but is also such an enormous list as to be not all that illuminating.

Titles that grabbed my attention included:

Stephen  Frears' "Icon" (his Lance Armstrong film)...though it is currently and ambiguously set for an August release in the U.S. which would mean no Telluride.

Thomas Vinterberg's "The Commune".  The article also mentions Vinterberg's "Far from the Madding Crowd" but that already has a U.S. release set for May 1st.

Matteo Garrone's "The Tale of Tales".

Todd Haynes' "Carol" starring Cate Blanchett

Jacques Audiard's "Erran".  Sundance Selects has already locked up the U.S. distribution for the film which should keep it in the Telluride conversation.  Last year the company was represented at Telluride by Ethan Hawke's "Seymour: An Introduction" and The Dardennes Brothers' "Two Days, One Night.

Denis Villeneuve's "Sicario" He's been programmed Telluride recently with "Prisoners" and "Incendies".

Justin Kurzel's "Macbeth" with Michael Fassbender and Marion Cotillard.  The Weinsteins ("The Imitation Game") are distributing and See Saw Films is the production company ("Shame", "Tracks").

Sean Penn's "The Last Face" starring Charlize Theron, Javier Bardem and Adele Exarchopolous.  Penn' last directing effort "Into the Wild" played Telluride in 2007.

Barbet Schroeder's "Amnesia".  Schroeder has had a long relationship with Telluride but hasn't been represented at the festival since 2007's "Terror's Advocate".

There are a lot more titles to mull.  Look here:

http://cineuropa.org/nw.aspx?t=newsdetail&l=en&did=286876



More coming on Thursday including the complete 24 category Film Awards Clearinghouse Nearly Final Oscar Predictions.

Birdman or Boyhood?/Imitation Game and Wild Tales Notes/More on Mr. Holmes and Berlin

Good Thursday People...


BIRDMAN OR BOYHOOD?

Oscar pundits have re-evaluated their thinking in light of the Guild success of "Birdman" (PGA, DGA, SAG Ensemble) and the BAFTAs  which preferred "Boyhood" for Picture and Director.  The Gurus of Gold at Movie City News say...still a "Boyhood" Best Picture win, but the margin has definitely tightened.  Take a look at the latest Gurus BP chart as well as a look at what the Gurus think might be some surprises that happen on Oscar night here:

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/02/gurus-o-gold-6-days-of-voting-left/

I'll update the eight major categories for Oscar on Monday followed by The FINAL FAC a week from today with the call on all 24 Oscar categories.

IMITATION GAME AND WILD TALES

As Oscar voting continues materials for "The Imitation Game" continue to pop up in a number of media outlets.  A new trailer showed up this week and was featured at The Wrap:

http://www.thewrap.com/watch-new-imitation-game-trailer-exclusive/


Bill Desowitz writing for Thompson on Hollywood profiles the actual methods used by Turing and the British code breakers that are the heart of the film.  Check that story here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/how-they-did-it-breaking-the-enigma-code-in-the-imitation-game-video-20150211



Meanwhile Damian Szifron's Oscar nominated Foreign Language film "Wild Tales" got some attention these past few days as well.  Szifron's multi-storied look at revenge and its effects were the focus of this Gold Derby post:

http://www.goldderby.com/news/8441/damian-szifron-interview-wild-tales-oscars-foreign-film-entertainment-13579086-story.html


MR. HOLMES AND BERLIN

The Berlin International Film Festival has made the turn into its final stretch and awards speculation has begun.  At this point, a number of possible Telluride #42 titles have played.  The strongest positive reactions to films that were high on my T-ride list have been Pablo Larrain's "The Club" which could well be in the conversation for the Golden Bear among the Darren Aronofsky-led jury and Bill Condon's "Mr. Holmes" which played out of competition.  Both films have received laudatory critical response.  A couple of other T-ride possibles have not fared as well critically: Werner Herzog's "Queen of the Desert" and Wim Wenders "Every Thing Will Be Fine" both had some serious negative critical response .  I'm certainly not saying that the Herzog nor the Wenders films are definitively off the Telluride menu as a result but my expectations for their appearance have been tempered.  Honestly, had the response to "Queen" been largely positive, it likely would have begun June as the top Telluride prospect.

Variety, this week, put up a story about "Mr. Holmes" that focuses on director Bill Condon and star Sir Ian McKellen.  It's here:

http://variety.com/2015/film/features/mckellen-condon-reunite-to-examine-later-years-of-sleuth-mr-holmes-1201430280/

Calling it now..."Mr. Holmes" plays Telluride with Sir Ian as the recipient of a tribute...

Directors Guild Announcement and BAFTA Means Oscar Looming/Films Making Noise from 41/Looking Ahead to 42

Good Monday to All...

DIRECTORS GUILD ANNOUNCEMENT AND BAFTA MEANS OSCAR LOOMING

Alejandro G. Inarritu was named the awarded the Best Direction prize last night by the DGA for "Birdman".  With that and wins from the PGA and SAG (ensemble) it might now be the real favorite for Best Picture on Oscar night.

Alejandro G. Inarritu with The DGA via HitFix/InContention

Here's some of the coverage and analysis from last night's announcement:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/alejandro-g-inarritu-wins-directors-guild-award-for-birdman/1

http://deadline.com/2015/02/birdman-dga-win-oscar-1201368817/

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/dga-prize-boosts-birdman-in-oscar-race-analysis-1201427652/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/dga-feature-award-goes-to-birdman-gaining-oscar-momentum-20150208

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/dga-awards-alejandro-g-inarritu-771156

But a "Birdman" win is not foreordained.  "Boyhood" rocked three BAFTA awards Sunday including Best Picture, Director and the expected Best Supporting Actress.  That closed the 24 hour cycle that had all but anointed "Birdman".  At this point, it seems to me that the "Bird" is flying a little higher than the "Boy" but neither film has this locked up.  Also, with a preferential ballot, despite that fact that it has been essentially a no-show throughout the Oscar run-up, I still think "The Imitation Game" could sneak onto enough ballots as #1, #2 and #3 to surprise come Oscar night.

Eddie Redmayne picked up the BAFTA Best Actor award.  He has to be considered the front runner, but I still stubbornly insist that a Michael Keaton win is possible.

I have linked BAFTA coverage and analysis here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/bafta-awards-boyhood-shows-signs-771273

http://deadline.com/2015/02/bafta-awards-analysis-baftas-winners-losers-1201368766/

http://www.hollywoodnews.com/2015/02/08/and-the-winners-of-the-2015-british-academy-film-awards-are/

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/02/20-weeks-to-oscar-what-we-talk-about-when-we-talk-about-best-picture-2/

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/02/the-state-of-the-race-boyhood-is-honored-in-england-while-hollywood-sends-a-message-to-studios/

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/off-the-carpet-how-to-look-at-what-the-guilds-and-bafta-awards-have-told-us

Oscar voting has begun and is ongoing.



FILMS MAKING NOISE FROM 41

Quick looks here at three films that were highlighted by stories on the web since my last post.  first, an interview from Gold Derby with "The Imitation Game" screen writer Graham Moore:

http://www.goldderby.com/news/8416/graham-moore-interview-imitation-game-oscars-entertainment-13579086-story.html

Andrea Gronvall profiles Gabe Polsky, the director of the documentary "Red Army":

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/02/the-gronvall-report-gabe-polsky-on-red-army/

Brad Brevet at Rope of Silicon passes on a story of the original ending for Alejandro G. Inarritu's "Birdman".  It might have been very, very different:

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/original-birdman-ending-revealed-feature-johnny-depp/

Finally, this from FirstShowing.net...a trailer for Eyhan Hawke's very well received documentary "Seymour: An Introduction":

http://www.firstshowing.net/2015/must-watch-trailer-for-ethan-hawkes-seymour-an-introduction/


LOOKING AHEAD TO 42

The Berlin International Film Festival is underway.  In the run up to the fest IndieWire posted a piece highlighting nine films that they were excited about.  The list includes a few films that I've been thinking are real Telluride possibilities:  "Queen of the Desert" (although the reviews aren't rocking the film world after its premiere, so maybe this is a Herzog that doesn't play at The Zog), "Mr. Holmes" and "The Club".  MTFB/FAC friend Christopher Schiller opined last weekend that "45 Years" might make the T-ride lineup.  Actually, almost any one of the nine films on IndieWire's list could pop up over Labor Day weekend.  Here's the post:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/berlin-2015-the-9-films-indiewire-cant-wait-to-see-20150205

Furious Cinema has posted an interesting piece on the influences that Quentin Tarantino is likely playing with as he films "The Hateful Eight" just outside Telluride.  It's fun.  Take a look:

http://www.furiouscinema.com/2015/01/hateful-eight-primer/

Finally, Sir Ian McKellen tweeted the first poster for the above-mentioned Berlin film and possible Telluride choice "Mr. Holmes":

More on Thursday...Have a great week...

Queen of the Desert Clip/Birdman News/Deepwater Horizon Switch/Foxcatcher Script Notes/Jobs Images/Notes on The Imitation Game

Good Monday World...Oscar night is less than three weeks away!


QUEEN OF THE DESERT CLIP


We have our first filmic glimpse of Werner Herzog's Berlin premiering "Queen of the Desert".  For the time being, I have high expectations that it will be on the program at TFF #42:

"Queen of the Desert" clip via YouTube

Additionally, here is The Playlist's story announcing the clip:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-nicole-kidman-is-not-ready-for-romance-in-first-clip-from-werner-herzogs-queen-of-the-desert-20150129


BIRDMAN NEWS

"Birdman" trailer via YouTube

A couple of new "Birdman" features popped up this week.  The first, linked below, is a video conversation with Michael Keaton.  The other link is a story that looks at the development of the Times Square scene in the film:

http://www.indiewire.com/awardsspotlight/michael-keaton-dug-deep-to-deliever

http://carpetbagger.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/01/30/shooting-birdman-and-drawing-soccer-style-cheers/


DEEPWATER HORIZON SWITCH

J.C. Chandor (and Robert Redford) at TFF #40

It was an unlikely 2015 Telluride choice because of timing, but I could have seen it as a 2016 possibility with J.C. Chandor on board but word came this weekend that "Deepwater Horizon", the film about the BP Gulf of Mexico Oil Drilling Platform disaster will not have Chandor in the director' s chair.  Rather, Peter Berg has bee brought in as Chandor has departed. That switch will move "Deepwater" way, way down on my "Telluride" lookout list for 2016.  The Playlist and Hollywood Elsewhere are linked here with coverage of Chandor's departure:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/directors-peter-berg-in-jc-chandor-out-for-deepwater-horizon-james-fraco-to-helm-in-dubious-battle-and-more-20150130

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2015/01/deeper-chandors-departure/


FOXCATCHER SCRIPT NOTES

"Foxcatcher" trailer via YouTube

Oscar nominated screenwriters for "Foxcatcher" Dan Futterman and E. Max Frye talked to Variety about the development of the script about the murder of an American Olympian by one of the wealthiest men in the country:

http://variety.com/2015/biz/news/poppolitics-parks-rec-makes-final-trek-to-d-c-foxcatcher-and-the-truth-of-john-du-pont-listen-1201420314/

JOBS IMAGES

Danny Boyle, Seth Rogen and Michael Fassbender working at "Jobs"

Danny Boyle has started shooting "Jobs" with Michael Fassbender and Seth Rogen working from and Aaron Sorkin script and the first images of the film have surfaced.  I've re-posted a couple here:


Yahoo Movies has a bit of a story and some images here:

https://www.yahoo.com/movies/michael-fassbender-steve-jobs-first-look-109606458777.html


NOTES ON THE IMITATION GAME

'The Imitation Game" trailer via YouTube

Screenwriter Graham Moore and author were awarded the USC Scripter Award over the weekend.  The award is given to the Best Adapted Screenplay of the year to both the screenwriter as well as the author)s) of the original source material that has been adapted.  the award is often a harbinger of which film will go on to win the same award on Oscar night.  HitFix has the story:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/the-imitation-game-wins-the-2015-usc-scripter-award

"Imitation Game: star Benedict Cumberbatch, who created a bit of a stir with his seemingly racist word choice last week, has called for an official pardon for the nearly 50,000 British gay men who were persecuted under the same laws that Alan Turing (Cumberbatch's character in the film).  HitFix has that story here:


http://time.com/3691013/benedict-cumberbatch-gay-pardon/

More on Thursday.  Have a great week everyone!

The PGA and The SAG/New Imitation Trailer/Birdwomen/Hateful Eight Filming Begins

Good Monday morning!  The Oscar race took an unexpected jog over the weekend...

THE PGA AND THE SAG

Alejandro G. Inarritu's "Birdman" was named the Best Picture of the year on Saturday night by The Producers Guild of America in a very unexpected turn of events.  "Richard Linklater's "Boyhood" was thought to be a pretty solid favorite going into the ceremony and it was generally expected that it would just be one more jewel in its crown on its way to its ultimate Oscar coronation.  Now, that's all called into question as one of the most competitive and unpredictable Oscar races in recent years continued to unwind.

Then, Sunday evening, The Screen Actors Guild named "Birdman" Best Ensemble.  That result was expected and it does add some fuel to a new fire that could presage a "Birdman" Oscar upset.

After a season that has increasingly looked as if "Boyhood" would snap the string of Best Picture Oscar winners having played at Telluride, it looks as if there is still at least a reasonable chance that the "T-ride" effect might remain in tact. Recall the following Best Picture winners from the last few years:

2008-"Slumdog Millionaire"
2009-"The Hurt Locker"
2010- "The King's Speech"
2011-"The Artist"
2012- "Argo"
2013- "12 Years a Slave"

Five of the last six and the last four BP winners in a row came through Telluride.

And don't discount the still real possibility that Best Picture might still end up being Morten Tyldum's "The Imitation Game".  I still feel like that's a realistic scenario.

One other thing...about an hour before Saturday night's PGA announcement, as I was traveling back home from the Edmond Santa Fe Invitational speech tournament and following the PGA announcements for all the other categories (including a Best Doc win for semi-Telluride presentation "Life Itself"...it played the night before this year's fest started in Elk Park)...I tapped out the following tweet...believe me or not..."Got a feeling some weird voodoo might go down at the PGA tonight...Birdman? Imitation?...just a feeling...but..."

Then I read it again and deleted it.   I thought, no one will believe this and I'll look like a fool.  Now, pretty likely I'll not be believed that I wrote the tweet to begin with...but it's true.  I swear!

Nevertheless, the Oscar Race is back on kiddos...

Take a look at PGA coverage from HitFix/InContention , Awards Daily and The Hollywood Reporter here:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/birdman-breaking-bad-fargo-win-2015-pga-awards

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/01/birdman-takes-the-producers-guild-in-a-surprise/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/pga-awards-birdman-upsets-boyhood-766661


Meanwhile, as to the rest of the SAG winners...three categories went according to expectations but Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything surprised for Best actor over favorite Michael Keaton so that category likely has a new frontrunner.  My bet is that Oscar's Best Actor race is actually too close to call right now.  As of this morning, I still believe Keaton could win.

The other individual categories went:

Best Supporting Actress- Patricia Arquette/Boyhood
Best Supporting Actor/JK Simmons/Whiplash
Best Actress: Julianne Moore/Still Alice

Take a look at some post SAG analysis here from The Hollywood Reporter and Gold Derby:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/sag-awards-birdman-weekend-continues-767052

http://www.goldderby.com/news/8327/sag-awards-winners-screen-actors-guild-entertainment-13579086-story.html


NEW IMITATION TRAILER

The Weinstein Company keeps the PR machinery running full tilt for 8 time Oscar nominee Morten Tyldum's "The Imitation Game" with a new trailer that popped this week.  Check it with this link:

https://amp.twimg.com/v/b6755761-f721-449f-b93f-1e3f7b1f2255



BIRDWOMEN

Take a look at this video featurette focusing on the women of "Birdman"  via Anne Thompson at Thompson on Hollywood:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/watch-meet-the-women-of-birdman-exclusive-20150122


HATEFUL EIGHT BEGINS FILMING

We've been telling you for while that Quentin Taratino and the crew for his new film "The Hateful Eight" was on the ground in the Telluride area.  Now, any number of film news outlets report that principal photography has actually begun.  For your entertainment, here is that story from TOH:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/production-begins-on-quentin-tarantinos-the-hateful-eight-20150123

And, a pic from Samuel L. Jackson's Facebook page:

That's Kurt Russell on the left...seriously...

Berlin Adds Titles/Coens and Cannes/Winners Bracket/Much Ado About: Birdman, Imitation Game, Foxcatcher/First Look: The Revenant/Oscar and Festivals

BERLIN ADDS TITLES...MORE TELLURIDE INTRIGUE

The Berlin International Film Festival named their last set of films for competition earlier this week and there were a couple that caught my eye as potential films for the Telluride slate: Wim Wenders "Every Thing Will Be Fine starring James Franco and Rachel McAdams and Pablo Larrain's "The Club".  Here's a selection of coverage of the Berlin announcement:


http://variety.com/2015/film/news/berlin-film-festival-completes-competition-lineup-2-1201408621/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/wim-wenders-3d-every-thing-will-be-fine-starring-james-franco-will-bow-in-berlin-20150119

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/wim-wenders-3d-drama-every-thing-will-be-fine-new-films-by-pablo-larrain-oliver-hirschbiegel-complete-berlin-line-up-20150119


COENS AND CANNES
 

TFF #40 Tribute recipients "The Coen Brothers" have been named as co-Presidents of the Palme d'Or jury for the Cannes Film Fest.  The Coens presented "Inside Llewyn Davis" at T-ride in 2013.  The Coens have had a number of films play at Cannes and I have always thought their Cannes connection was likely a big reason tat "Llewyn" became their first film to screen at TFF.  Any chance that we might see their "Hail, Caesar!" might make a Telluride play?  At this point, the Feb. 2016 release date would seem to make that unlikely.  I have linked a few of the stories about their Cannes selection here:

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/coen-brothers-named-jury-presidents-of-68th-cannes-film-festival-1201409394/

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/the-coen-brothers-will-head-up-the-2015-cannes-film-festival-jury

http://deadline.com/2015/01/joel-and-ethan-coen-cannes-festival-jury-chairmen-1201353692/


WINNERS BRACKET

Now that the Oscar nominations are out, a good number of the Oscar experts are weighing in as to their thoughts about which films will actually carry off the trophies on Feb. 22.  Check those below:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/01/the-state-of-the-race-the-nominations-are-in-who-is-winning-what/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/now-that-we-know-the-nominees-whos-going-to-win-the-oscar-for-best-picture-20150116

https://twitter.com/kristapley/status/556895977052065793/photo/1

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/oscars/2015/oscars-1202015

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/01/gurus-o-gold-a-week-after-nominations-any-changes/?


MUCH ADO ABOUT...

BIRDMAN COLLECTION

"Interviews and "Behind the Scenes" material for Inarritu's "Birdman":

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/watch-alejandro-gonzalez-inarritu-talks-birdman-at-telluride-exclusive-video-20140901

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-23-minute-talk-with-birdman-stars-michael-keaton-ed-norton-20150108

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/making-birdman-alejandro-g-inarritu-761407

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/interview-alejandro-gonzalez-inarritu-talks-birdman-the-films-bad-original-ending-critics-true-detective-more-20150108

http://deadline.com/2015/01/alejandro-gonzalez-inarritu-birdman-director-interview-michael-keaton-1201341925/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9gL7qlMiz4

http://thecreatorsproject.vice.com/blog/birdman-backstage-is-a-virtual-tour-inside-the-soaring-oscar-nominee


IMITATION COLLECTION

Interviews and "Behind the Scenes" features for "The Imitation Game":


http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/la-et-mn-en-morten-tyldum-20150101-story.html


http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/cracking-code-how-two-work-745734


http://www.indiewire.com/article/keira-knightley-on-faking-her-way-through-the-imitation-game-and-getting-loose-for-laggies-20150120




FOXCATCHER: THE FIRST FILM

Here's an interesting piece of video.  This is the Jon DuPont promotional film...ther eal one...that is referenced in "Foxcatcher":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4WOqUkJmFQ&feature=youtu.be


FIRST LOOK: THE REVENANT

Entertainment Weekly has the first photos from Alejandro Inarritu's "The Revenant" starring Leonardo DiCaprio.  The film, set for a December release, would be a prime Telluride possibility if it's done in time for Labor Day...but that's a BIG IF...


http://www.firstshowing.net/2015/first-look-leonardo-dicaprio-in-birdman-directors-the-revenant/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/first-look-leonardo-dicaprio-gets-grimy-in-alejandro-gonzalez-inarritus-the-revenant-20150121


OSCAR AND FESTIVALS

Indiewire looks at which film festivals acted as the premiere host/site for which Oscar nominated films:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/the-2015-oscar-race-which-film-festivals-came-out-on-top-20150120


More on Monday...Have a great weekend!