The Latest FAC for Major Oscar Categories / BAFTA Results and a Few Thoughts / WGA Rewards Spotlight and The Big Short

Good Monday everyone...welcome to another post on Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse.


THE LATEST FAC FOR MAJOR OSCAR CATEGORIES

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood/Indiewire

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) The Big Short (1)

2) The Revenant (3)

3) Spotlight (2)

4) Mad Max: Fury Road (4)

5) The Martian (5)

6) Room (6)

7) Bridge of Spies (7)

8) Brooklyn (8)

Comment: The Revenant's and Alejandro Inarritu's DGA win has shuffled the top of the deck slightly.  Spotlight slips from #2 to #3 and The Revenant moves up to that #2 spot.   The top three films are bunched within a two point window in The FAC metric so the Best Picture race is still wide, wide open.

It will interesting to see if last night's BAFTA announcement changes the field further.  

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant (1)

2) Adam McKay/The Big Short (2)

3) George Miller/Mad Max: Fury Road (4)

4) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight (3)

5) Lenny Abrahamson/Room (5)

Comment:  McCarthy and Miller trade places signalling a weakening among The FAC pundits in their feeling that Spotlight is waning, however slightly, in the Best Picture race. 

BEST ACTRESS

1) Brie Larson/Room (1)

2) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn (2)

3) Cate Blanchett/Carol (4)

4) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years (3)

5) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy

Comment: Larson has solidified her hold on the lead here.  Slight shift below her as Blanchett and Rampling switch the #3 and #4 positions.

BEST ACTOR

1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant (1)

2) Bryan Cranston/Trumbo

3) Michael Fassbender /Steve Jobs (3)

4) Matt Damon/The Martian (4)

5) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl (5)

Comment: It's Leo all the way here.  The category remains static from the last FAC post.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl (1)

2) Rooney Mara/Carol (2)

3) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs (3)

4) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight (4)

5) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight (5)

Comment: Another category that's frozen with these nominees in the same positions as the last FAC.  Vikander is away out front.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1)  Sylvester Stallone/Creed (1)

2) Christian Bale/The Big Short (4)

3) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight (2)

4) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies (3)

5) Tom Hardy/The Revenant (5)

Comment:  Stallone is the odds on favorite.  Bale's ascendance could signal a rise in The Big Short's fortunes and the subsequent drop for Mark Ruffalo might be another signal that Spotlight might be waning.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Big Short (1)

2) Room (2)

3) The Martian (5)

4) Carol (3)

5) Brooklyn (4)

Comment: Last weekend's WGA win for The Big Short only solidifies its status as the very likely winner for this category on Oscar night.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Spotlight (1)

2) Inside Out (2)

3) Ex Machina (3)

4) Straight Outta Compton (4)

5) Bridge of Spies (5)

Comment: Spotlight won the WGA and is the prohibitive favorite here.

BAFTA RESULTS AND A FEW THOUGHTS

Alejandro Inarritu's western revenge/survival dram The Revenant won the British version of the Oscar last night for Best Picture.  Inarritu also won as did star Leonardo DiCaprio.  The film also won honors for cinematography (Emmanuel Lubezki also won the American Society of Cinematographers Award for Best Cinematography last night...making him likely to win an unprecedented third straight Oscar) and  Best Sound.

In addition to DiCaprio, Brie Larson won Best Actress for Room, Kate Winslet was named Best Supporting Actress for Steve Jobs and Mark Rylance as Best Supporting Actor for Bridge of Spies.

Other winners last night included Screenplay wins for Spotlight and The Big Short.  Mad Max; Fury Road won four tech awards for editing, costumes, makeup and production design.

Complete results are here:

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/bafta-awards-winners-2016-complete-list-british-academy-film-television-1201706004/

The Revenant's win on top of its win with the DGA most likely signals that it is the front runner for the Best Picture Oscar in less than two weeks time.  That said, analysis from Oscar pros Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter and Kristopher Tapley of Variety's InContention say.."not so fast".

Both analysts suggest that The Revenant is the likely favorite but they also point out that this season has been anything but predictable and that the BAFTA last year rewarded Richard Linklater's Boyhood.  So, they both say, the race may still not be over andwe could still have a surprise or two on Feb. 28.

Check out their analysis here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/bafta-awards-revenant-wins-dont-865269

http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/the-revenant-key-bafta-awards-analysis-1201706167/

One final note: Telluride films won Best Actress-Brie Larson/Room, Best Supporting Actress-Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs, Original Screenplay-Spotlight and Non-English Language Film-Wild Tales.

WGA REWARDS SPOTLIGHT AND THE BIG SHORT

The Writers Guild of America named their award winners for 2015 on Saturday with TFF #42 film Spotlight named Best Original Screenplay and The Big Short winning Best Adapted Screenplay. Those wins are expected to be repeated on Oscar night in a couple of weeks.

I have linked WGA coverage here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/2016-wga-winners-complete-list-856955/item/original-screenplay-2016-wga-theatrical-852591

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-awards-writersguild-idUSKCN0VN072

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2016/02/13/writer-guild-awards-announcing/

http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/wga-awards-winners-writers-guild-america-1201705269/

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Sixteen Oscar Categories/The Big Eight Again/Final Predictions from the Experts

Good Thursday Everyone...Oscar happens in 3 days!

SIXTEEN OSCAR CATEGORIES

Here's where The Film Awards Clearinghouse is as far the "below-the-line" Oscar categories are concerned.

The FAC uses the published predictions of the following to develop its list of likely Oscar winners:

Kristopher Tapley/InContention/HitFix

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Bred Brevet/Rope of Silicon

Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

Peter Knegt/IndieWire

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Telluride #41 films are Bold. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) How to Train Your Dragon 2
2) Big Hero 6
3) The Boxtrolls
4) The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
5) Song of the Sea

Comment:  "Dragon's" lead is substantial.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Citizenfour
2) Virunga
3) The Last Days of Vietnam
4) Finding Vivian Maier
5) Salt of the Earth

Comment: It's a huge surprise if "Citizenfour" doesn't win.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Ida
2) Wild Tales
3) Leviathan
4) Timbuktu
5) Tangerines

Comment:  "Ida" is out front, but any of the top three films could win.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Birdman
2) The Grand Budapest Hotel
3) Mr. Turner
4) Unbroken
5) Ida

Comment: "Birdman" easily.  Lubezki wins second in a row.

BEST COSTUMES

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Into the Woods
3) Mr. Turner
4) Malificent
5) Inherent Vice

Comment: "Budapest" is likely but "Into the Woods" could surprise.

BEST FILM EDITING

1) Boyhood
2) Whiplash
3) American Sniper
4) The Grand Budapest Hotel
5) The Imitation Game

Comment: "Boyhood's" perceived lead is huge.  Personally, I could see a "Whiplash" upset here.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Guardians of the Galaxy
3) Foxcatcher

Comment:  A "Budapest" win is very likely but not a slam dunk.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel (tie)
2) The Theory of Everything
3) The Imitation Game
4) Interstellar
5) Mr. Turner

Comment: This race is a dead heat with "Budapest" getting the edge based on #1 positions among the experts I analyze.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Glory/Selma
2) I'm not Gonna Miss You/I'll Be Me
3) Everything is Awesome/The LEGO Movie
4) Lost Stars/Begin Again
5) Grateful/Beyond the Lights

Comment: "Glory"   has the edge in a notoriously difficult category to predict.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Into the Woods
3) Mr. Turner
4) The Imitation Game
5) Interstellar

Comment: "Budapest" with a substantial edge here.

BEST SOUND EDITING

1) American Sniper
2) Birdman
3) Interstellar
4) Unbroken
5) The Hobbit: Smaug

Comment:  "Sniper" has a solid lead.

BEST SOUND MIXING

1) American Sniper
2) Birdman
3) Whiplash
4) Interstellar
5) Unbroken

Comment: "Sniper's" position is less secure here as opposed to Sound Editing...

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Interstellar
2) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
3) Guardians of the Galaxy
4) Captain America: The Winter Soldier
5) X-Men: Days of Future Past

Comment: This is a close race between the top three in the category.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) The Bigger Picture (3 way tie)
2) Feast
2) The Dam Keeper
4) A Single Life
5) Me and My Moulton

Comment: This race is too close to call between all three of the top listed films.  "Bigger Picture" got The FAC nod as it's listed at the top by two of the experts.  Frankly, I'm leaning toward "The Dam Keeper".

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Crisis Hotline
2) Joanna
3) The Reaper
4) White Earth
5) Our Curse

Comment: a two film race between "Crisis" and "Joanna".

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) The Phone Call
2) Parveneh
3) Boogaloo and Graham
4) Butter Lamp
5) Aya

Comment: "Phone Call" with a slight edge in a category that any of the five could win.


THE BIG EIGHT AGAIN

This is a re-post of the Big Eight categories that I posted on Sunday.  EXPECT AN UPDATE ON OSCAR MORNING!!!

BEST PICTURE

1) Birdman
2) Boyhood
3) The Imitation Game
4) American Sniper
5) The Grand Budapest Hotel
6) Selma
7) The Theory of Everything
8) Whiplash

Comment:  "Birdman" and "Boyhood" swap spots at the top of the chart as a result of "Birdman" guild wins in the past few eeks (PGA, DGA, SAG) but it is soooooo close.  The metric I use, has them separated by one point...ONE.  Four experts say "Bird": Feinberg, Brevet, Davis and Knegt. Stone, Tapley and Thompson have "Boyhood" on top.  It's a nail biter.

FURTHER NOTE: Since Sunday's original post, Tapley has gone back to a "Birdman" choice, giving the Inarritu film a little breathing room.

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Richard Linklater/Boyhood
2) Alejandro Inarritu/Birdman
3) Wes Anderson/The Grand Budapest Hotel
4) Morten Tyldum/The Imitation Game
5) Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher

Comment:  Linklater stays on top here but, again, the separation is ONE POINT between he and Inarritu.  Inarritu's DGA win weighs heavily in the closeness of this race as well.  There is an increasing speculation that The Academy may well split picture and director this year as it did last year.  That'd be weird, but the season has been weird.  What's weirder is that buzz cuts both ways with some in the biz suggesting a Bird BP win with a Linklater directing Oscar and others doing a "180" and suggesting a "Boyhood" BP win and the directing trophy to go to Inarritu.  My personal feeling, perhaps only transitionally, is that Bird/Inarritu are going to win both.

BEST ACTOR

1) Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything
2) Michael Keaton/Birdman
3) Bradley Cooper/American Sniper
4) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game
5) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher

Comment:  Redmayne's lead has opened up a bit over the last couple of weeks but it's still not enough to declare him a lock for Oscar on Sunday night.  I still think Keaton has a shot.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Julianne Moore/Still Alice
2) Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything
3) Reese Witherspoon/Wild
4) Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl
5) Marion Cotillard/Two Days One Night

Comment: One of the three acting trophies that are locked up.  Moore wins.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Patricia Arquette/Boyhood
2) Emma Stone/Birdman
3) Kiera Knightley/The Imitation Game
4) Laura Dern/Wild
5) Meryl Streep/Into the Woods

Comment:  Ms. Arquette will have an Oscar to take to the CSI: Cyber set next week.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) JK Simmons/Whiplash
2) Edward Norton/Birdman
3) Ethan Hawke/Boyhood
4) Mark Ruffalo/Foxcatcher
5) Robert Duvall/The Judge

Comment: JK wins.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Whiplash
2) American Sniper
3) The Imitation Game
4) The Theory of Everything
5) Inherent Vice

Comment:  This is a competitive category with "Sniper" moving up the chart strongly over the past couple of weeks.  I could see this landing for any of the five.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Birdman
3) Boyhood
4) Nightcrawler
5) Foxcatcher

Comment: Also an uber competitive category.  "Budapest"  edges past "Birdman" but it's very, very close.  Also, don't count out a "Boyhood" win here.

FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

I'm linking the "final" Oscar predictions here from any number of Oscarologists some of which I use for The FAC, some I don't.  I'll update the "Finals" section as we go through the rest of the week...

Gurus of Gold:

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/02/gurus-o-gold-the-final-vote-every-category-1-of-2/

Awards Circuit/Clayton Davis:

http://www.awardscircuit.com/2015/02/18/oscars-2015-will-winshould-win-mike-ward/

The Hollywood Reporter/Scott Feinberg and Todd McCarthy:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-predictions-2015-who-will-774490

The Wrap/Steve Pond:

http://www.thewrap.com/oscars-24-final-will-win-should-win-predictions-birdman-boyhood-budapest-top-baffling-year/

IndieWire/Oliver Lyttleton:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/who-should-win-who-will-win-predicting-the-2015-oscars-20150218

Deadline/Pete Hammond:

http://deadline.com/2015/02/oscar-predictions-2015-who-will-win-academy-awards-1201374854/


Again, a FINAL FAC ON SUNDAY...

Birdman or Boyhood?/Imitation Game and Wild Tales Notes/More on Mr. Holmes and Berlin

Good Thursday People...


BIRDMAN OR BOYHOOD?

Oscar pundits have re-evaluated their thinking in light of the Guild success of "Birdman" (PGA, DGA, SAG Ensemble) and the BAFTAs  which preferred "Boyhood" for Picture and Director.  The Gurus of Gold at Movie City News say...still a "Boyhood" Best Picture win, but the margin has definitely tightened.  Take a look at the latest Gurus BP chart as well as a look at what the Gurus think might be some surprises that happen on Oscar night here:

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/02/gurus-o-gold-6-days-of-voting-left/

I'll update the eight major categories for Oscar on Monday followed by The FINAL FAC a week from today with the call on all 24 Oscar categories.

IMITATION GAME AND WILD TALES

As Oscar voting continues materials for "The Imitation Game" continue to pop up in a number of media outlets.  A new trailer showed up this week and was featured at The Wrap:

http://www.thewrap.com/watch-new-imitation-game-trailer-exclusive/


Bill Desowitz writing for Thompson on Hollywood profiles the actual methods used by Turing and the British code breakers that are the heart of the film.  Check that story here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/how-they-did-it-breaking-the-enigma-code-in-the-imitation-game-video-20150211



Meanwhile Damian Szifron's Oscar nominated Foreign Language film "Wild Tales" got some attention these past few days as well.  Szifron's multi-storied look at revenge and its effects were the focus of this Gold Derby post:

http://www.goldderby.com/news/8441/damian-szifron-interview-wild-tales-oscars-foreign-film-entertainment-13579086-story.html


MR. HOLMES AND BERLIN

The Berlin International Film Festival has made the turn into its final stretch and awards speculation has begun.  At this point, a number of possible Telluride #42 titles have played.  The strongest positive reactions to films that were high on my T-ride list have been Pablo Larrain's "The Club" which could well be in the conversation for the Golden Bear among the Darren Aronofsky-led jury and Bill Condon's "Mr. Holmes" which played out of competition.  Both films have received laudatory critical response.  A couple of other T-ride possibles have not fared as well critically: Werner Herzog's "Queen of the Desert" and Wim Wenders "Every Thing Will Be Fine" both had some serious negative critical response .  I'm certainly not saying that the Herzog nor the Wenders films are definitively off the Telluride menu as a result but my expectations for their appearance have been tempered.  Honestly, had the response to "Queen" been largely positive, it likely would have begun June as the top Telluride prospect.

Variety, this week, put up a story about "Mr. Holmes" that focuses on director Bill Condon and star Sir Ian McKellen.  It's here:

http://variety.com/2015/film/features/mckellen-condon-reunite-to-examine-later-years-of-sleuth-mr-holmes-1201430280/

Calling it now..."Mr. Holmes" plays Telluride with Sir Ian as the recipient of a tribute...

A Look at Mr. Holmes/Jobs Has a Date/Trailer for Wild Tales/A Plea Like Mine

Good Thursday to Everyone...


Oscar Night is just 16 days away!

A LOOK AT MR. HOLMES

We have our first moving glimpse of Bill Condon's Mr. Holmes starring Sir Ian McKellan as a retired version of the famed detective.  The film also stars Laura Linney.  Best reasons to think it could play Telluride: Linney,  Condon and Roadside Attractions.  Damper: Condon has only played T-ride once.

"Mr. Holmes" Clip via YouTube

Coverage:

The Playlist, Rope of Silicon, HitFix

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-ian-mckellen-is-sherlock-holmes-in-first-clip-for-mr-holmes-20150204


http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/watch-ian-mckellen-talks-kid-new-clip-mr-holmes/


http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/first-look-ian-mckellen-is-an-old-sherlock-in-new-clip-of-mr-homes


JOBS HAS A DATE

Universal announced yesterday that Danny Boyle's Steve Jobs biopic "Jobs" will be released Oct. 19th which means that it could certainly be ready for a screening at Telluride.  It' still a close call but doable.  Best reason to think it will play: Boyle.  Damper: Universal

Coverage:

The Hollywood Reporter, Variety, FirstShowing:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/universals-steve-jobs-movie-gets-770209


http://variety.com/2015/film/news/steve-jobs-movie-release-date-1201423722/


http://www.firstshowing.net/2015/steve-jobs-biopic-is-coming-fast-as-universal-sets-october-release/


TRAILER FOR WILD TALES

"Wild Tales" trailer via YouTube

One of the hits of last year's festival and the highest flying foreign entry per the Telluride Peoples and Professionals polls reported here was Damian Szifron's Oscar nominated "Wild Tales".  NOw comes a trailer cut for the United States which is above.

Coverage from The Dissolve and FirstShowing:

http://thedissolve.com/news/4661-new-trailer-for-oscar-nominee-wild-tales-is-suitab/

http://www.firstshowing.net/2014/indie-trailer-sunday-brilliant-argentinian-anthology-film-wild-tales/

AND A PLEA LIKE MINE

HitFix's Greg Ellwood filed a story this week about potential 2016 Oscar contenders that screened at Sundance.  He points at two possible Best Picture candidates "Me and Earl and the Dying Girl" and "Brooklyn"  We take note here as Ellwood makes a plea directly to the programmers at Telluride to make an exception to the "no Sundance/only North American first screenings" policy and sites the appearance of "An Education" in 2009 as I have done from time to time..  Ellwood suggests that "An Education" was an anamoly due to some connection to a tribute, though I can't find that.  TFF #36 tributed Viggo Mortensen, Margarethe von Trotta and Anouk Aimee that year.  Here's Elllwood's Sundance Oscar dispatch:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/did-the-2016-oscars-race-start-at-sundance-again

More on Monday.  Have a great weekend!

Parsing the Oscars Through Telluride's Lense

The nominating is all done.  Now onto the ceremony on Feb. 22

PARSING THE OSCARS (THROUGH TELLURIDE'S LENSE

TFF #41 produces films that grab 33 Oscar nominations plus an additional two from TFF #40 title "Ida".

The breakdown:

Birdman-Nine- Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.  Surprisingly NOT nominated for Film Editing (could tell you that it doesn't have a shot at winning Best Picture), or Production Design.

The Imitation Game- Eight-Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Production Design and Original Score.  That's exactly what The FAC had for this film.

Foxcatcher-Five- Direction, Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Makeup/Hair. Foxcatcher really over-performed based on what The FAC expected but tell me how the film can be one of the five best directed, best written and best acted films and NOT be nominated for Best Picture?  More admired than loved, I guess.

Mr. Turner-Four- Original Score, Production Design, Cinematography and Costumes.  The score nomination was a surprise.

Wild-Two-Best Actress and Supporting Actress.  Laura Dern sneaks in ahead of Rene Russo.

Two Days, One Night-One-Marion Cotillard gets a nod ahead of Jennifer Aniston and Amy Adams.

Single nominations for: "Salt of the Earth" as Best Doc Feature and "Leviathan" and "Wild Tales" for Foreign Language.  "Feast" was nominated for Best Animated Short.

Overall, a remarkable year for Telluride films as far as Oscar recognition.

The FAC goes 75 out of 106 this morning or 71%...one of the least successful rates since I started doing this.  Lots of 3/5 categories.  The FAC's best category: Supporting Actor where I went 5/5 and Makeup...3/3.  Worst categories: Doc Feature and Sound Mixing -2/5 in each. In the "close but no cigar" dept.  Seven categories had nominations from a film that The FAC had as the #6 possibility.

Surprises and weirdness:

In addition to my amazement mentioned above vis-a-vis "Foxcatcher"...

The "American Sniper" trend turned out to be real...very real.  Six nominations...Picture, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Sound Editing and Mixing.  The Final FAC had "Sniper" getting one nomination for screenplay.

"Budapest" performed better than expected and "Boyhood" (which is still your favorite for Best Pic, Director, Original Screenplay and Supporting Actress...but...see below) did exactly what was expected.

"Birdman" underperformed. as The FAC had it getting 10 nominations including Film Editing and Production Design on which is missed.  It did get a Sound Mixing nomination, which was a bit of a surprise.

"Selma"  Only two nominations...Song and Picture...how very odd.

"The Imitation Game" The FAC predicted "The Imitation Game eight nominations exactly.  Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Direction, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Production Design and Score.

Category notes:

The Bennett Miller directing nomination is really a surprise.
Let this be remembered: don't bet against Bradley Cooper for an acting nomination.
"Birdman's" lack of a film editing nomination is probably an indication it won't be a Best Picture winner.
Best Song: "Grateful" from "Beyond the Lights" wasn't even in The FAC's final ten.
No "LEGO Movie" for Animated Feature...it was easily #1 in The FAC...that's a huge surprise.
No one can figure out Documentary feature nominees...
"Ida" for cinematography...way to go Kris Tapley!


Finally..."Boyhood", as mentioned above, is still your favorite...but...clearly The Academy loves "Grand Budapest" and "Imitation Game".  At this point, if an upset is to occur, it'll be one of those two films.

Early faves in each major category:

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
Best Original Screenplay: Boyhood
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette/Boyhood
Best Supporting Actor: JK Simmons/Whiplash
Best Actress: Julianne Moore/Still Alice
Best Actor: Michael Keaton/Birdman
Best Direction: Richard Linklater/Boyhood
Best Picture: Boyhood.

More later...and on Monday!

Oscar Nominations

Complete List of Oscar nominees via Variety:

Best motion picture of the year

“American Sniper” Clint Eastwood, Robert Lorenz, Andrew Lazar, Bradley Cooper and Peter Morgan,Producers
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Alejandro G. Iñárritu, John Lesher and James W. Skotchdopole, Producers
“Boyhood” Richard Linklater and Cathleen Sutherland, Producers
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson, Producers
“The Imitation Game” Nora Grossman, Ido Ostrowsky and Teddy Schwarzman, Producers
“Selma” Christian Colson, Oprah Winfrey, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner, Producers
“The Theory of Everything” Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce and Anthony McCarten, Producers
“Whiplash” Jason Blum, Helen Estabrook and David Lancaster, Producers

Performance by an actor in a leading role

Steve Carell in “Foxcatcher”
Bradley Cooper in “American Sniper”
Benedict Cumberbatch in “The Imitation Game”
Michael Keaton in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Eddie Redmayne in “The Theory of Everything”

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

Robert Duvall in “The Judge”
Ethan Hawke in “Boyhood”
Edward Norton in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Mark Ruffalo in “Foxcatcher”
J.K. Simmons in “Whiplash”

Performance by an actress in a leading role

Marion Cotillard in “Two Days, One Night”
Felicity Jones in “The Theory of Everything”
Julianne Moore in “Still Alice”
Rosamund Pike in “Gone Girl”
Reese Witherspoon in “Wild”

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

Patricia Arquette in “Boyhood”
Laura Dern in “Wild”
Keira Knightley in “The Imitation Game”
Emma Stone in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Meryl Streep in “Into the Woods”

Best animated feature film of the year

“Big Hero 6” Don Hall, Chris Williams and Roy Conli
“The Boxtrolls” Anthony Stacchi, Graham Annable and Travis Knight
“How to Train Your Dragon 2” Dean DeBlois and Bonnie Arnold
“Song of the Sea” Tomm Moore and Paul Young
“The Tale of the Princess Kaguya” Isao Takahata and Yoshiaki Nishimura

Achievement in cinematography

“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Emmanuel Lubezki
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Robert Yeoman
“Ida” Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski
“Mr. Turner” Dick Pope
“Unbroken” Roger Deakins

Achievement in costume design

“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Milena Canonero
“Inherent Vice” Mark Bridges
“Into the Woods” Colleen Atwood
“Maleficent” Anna B. Sheppard and Jane Clive
“Mr. Turner” Jacqueline Durran

Achievement in directing

“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Alejandro G. Iñárritu
“Boyhood” Richard Linklater
“Foxcatcher” Bennett Miller
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Wes Anderson
“The Imitation Game” Morten Tyldum

Best documentary feature

“CitizenFour” Laura Poitras, Mathilde Bonnefoy and Dirk Wilutzky
“Finding Vivian Maier” John Maloof and Charlie Siskel
“Last Days in Vietnam” Rory Kennedy and Keven McAlester
“The Salt of the Earth” Wim Wenders, Juliano Ribeiro Salgado and David Rosier
“Virunga” Orlando von Einsiedel and Joanna Natasegara

Best documentary short subject

“Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1” Ellen Goosenberg Kent and Dana Perry
“Joanna” Aneta Kopacz
“Our Curse” Tomasz Sliwinski and Maciej Slesicki
“The Reaper (La Parka)” Gabriel Serra Arguello
“White Earth” J. Christian Jensen

Achievement in film editing

“American Sniper” Joel Cox and Gary D. Roach
“Boyhood” Sandra Adair
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Barney Pilling
“The Imitation Game” William Goldenberg
“Whiplash” Tom Cross

Best foreign language film of the year

“Ida” Poland
“Leviathan” Russia
“Tangerines” Estonia
“Timbuktu” Mauritania
“Wild Tales” Argentina

Achievement in makeup and hairstyling

“Foxcatcher” Bill Corso and Dennis Liddiard
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier
“Guardians of the Galaxy” Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and David White

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)

“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Alexandre Desplat
“The Imitation Game” Alexandre Desplat
“Interstellar” Hans Zimmer
“Mr. Turner” Gary Yershon
“The Theory of Everything” Jóhann Jóhannsson

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)

“Everything Is Awesome” from “The Lego Movie”
Music and Lyric by Shawn Patterson
“Glory” from “Selma”
Music and Lyric by John Stephens and Lonnie Lynn
“Grateful” from “Beyond the Lights”
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from “Glen Campbell…I’ll Be Me”
Music and Lyric by Glen Campbell and Julian Raymond
“Lost Stars” from “Begin Again”
Music and Lyric by Gregg Alexander and Danielle Brisebois

Achievement in production design

“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
“The Imitation Game” Production Design: Maria Djurkovic; Set Decoration: Tatiana Macdonald
“Interstellar” Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Gary Fettis
“Into the Woods” Production Design: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
“Mr. Turner” Production Design: Suzie Davies; Set Decoration: Charlotte Watts

Best animated short film

“The Bigger Picture” Daisy Jacobs and Christopher Hees
“The Dam Keeper” Robert Kondo and Dice Tsutsumi
“Feast” Patrick Osborne and Kristina Reed
“Me and My Moulton” Torill Kove
“A Single Life” Joris Oprins

Best live action short film

“Aya” Oded Binnun and Mihal Brezis
“Boogaloo and Graham” Michael Lennox and Ronan Blaney
“Butter Lamp (La Lampe Au Beurre De Yak)” Hu Wei and Julien Féret
“Parvaneh” Talkhon Hamzavi and Stefan Eichenberger
“The Phone Call” Mat Kirkby and James Lucas

Achievement in sound editing

“American Sniper” Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Martín Hernández and Aaron Glascock
“The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies” Brent Burge and Jason Canovas
“Interstellar” Richard King
“Unbroken” Becky Sullivan and Andrew DeCristofaro

Achievement in sound mixing

“American Sniper” John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and Thomas Varga
“Interstellar” Gary A. Rizzo, Gregg Landaker and Mark Weingarten
“Unbroken” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and David Lee
“Whiplash” Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley

Achievement in visual effects

“Captain America: The Winter Soldier” Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill and Dan Sudick
“Dawn of the Planet of the Apes” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett and Erik Winquist
“Guardians of the Galaxy” Stephane Ceretti, Nicolas Aithadi, Jonathan Fawkner and Paul Corbould
“Interstellar” Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher
“X-Men: Days of Future Past” Richard Stammers, Lou Pecora, Tim Crosbie and Cameron Waldbauer

Adapted screenplay

“American Sniper” Written by Jason Hall
“The Imitation Game” Written by Graham Moore
“Inherent Vice” Written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Theory of Everything” Screenplay by Anthony McCarten
“Whiplash” Written by Damien Chazelle

Original screenplay

“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Written by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. & Armando Bo
“Boyhood” Written by Richard Linklater
“Foxcatcher” Written by E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Screenplay by Wes Anderson; Story by Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness
“Nightcrawler” Written by Dan Gilroy

Analysis coming later today.  Quick count shows Telluride with 33 nominations for this year and 2 for last year's "Ida".

The (Probably) Final FAC

Welcome to this special Wednesday edition of The Film Awards Clearinghouse with less than 24 hours to go before the announcement of Oscar nominations...

THE (PROBABLY) FINAL FAC

Here's the last posting of the 21 Feature categories nomination predictions.

The FAC uses the published predictions of the following to develop its list of likely Oscar nominees:

Kristopher Tapley/InContention/HitFix

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Bred Brevet/Rope of Silicon

Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience

Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

Peter Knegt/IndieWire

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Telluride #41 films are Bold (with their last rating in parentheses followed by the original FAC ranking from Vol 1. back on  ).

Today, I update the eight major categories:

BEST PICTURE

1) Boyhood (1) (2)
2) Birdman (2) (1)
3) The Imitation Game (3) (3)
4) The Theory of Everything (5) (6)
5) Selma (4)
6) The Grand Budapest Hotel (6) (10)
7) Whiplash (7)
8) Gone Girl (9) (8)
9) Nightcrawler (11)

If The Academy follows form from the last three years, this would be the cut off at nine nominations.

10) American Sniper (13)
11) Foxcatcher (10) (4)
12) Unbroken (8) (5)
13) Into the Woods (12)
14) Interstellar (14) (7)
15) Mr. Turner (15) (9)


Comment:"Selma" seems to be taking a small hit in the estimation of this collective of Oscarologists probably due the lack of a PGA nomination and The BAFTA snubbing that happened earlier this week.  "Nightcrawler" and "American Sniper" both seem to have realistic chances to get a Best Picture nomination although I continue to cross my fingers for Bennett Miller's "Foxcatcher".

"Unbroken's" fall from favor appears to be complete.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Richard Linklater/Boyhood (1) (2)
2) Alejandro Inarritu/Birdman (2) (1)
3) Ava DuVernay/Selma (3)
4) Morten Tyldum/The Imitation Game (4) (6)
5) Wes Anderson/The Grand Budapest Hotel (5) (9)

6) David Fincher/Gone Girl (6)
7) Damien Chazelle/Whiplash (7)
8) Clint Eastwood/American Sniper (9)
9) Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher (8) (3)
10) James Marsh/The Theory of Everything (13)

Comment: The "Selma" slide doesn't show any effect in this category.  Marsh rebounds a little and Jolie seems to be done.


BEST ACTOR

1) Michael Keaton/Birdman (1) (1)
2) Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything (2) (4)
3) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game (4) (2)
4) David Oyelowo/Selma (3) (6)
5) Jake Gyllenhaal/Nightcrawler (5)

6) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher (6) (3)
7) Ralph Fiennes/The Grand Budapest Hotel (8) (7)
8) Timothy Spall/Mr. Turner(7) (5)
9) Bradley Cooper/American Sniper (9)
10) Oscar Isaac/A Most Violent Year (10)

Comment:  Oyelowo may have suffered a bit.  Top three seem to be solid and then the next four: Oyelowo, Gyllenhaal, Carell and Fiennes fighting for that last two spots.


BEST ACTRESS

1) Julianne Moore/Still Alice (1) (8)
2) Reese Witherspoon/Wild (2) (1)
3) Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything (3) (4)
4) Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl (4) (3)
5) Jennifer Aniston/Cake (5)

6) Amy Adams/Big Eyes (7) (2)
7) Marion Cotillard/Two Days, One Night (6)
8) Hilary Swank/The Homesman (8) (6)
9) Emily Blunt/Into the Woods (9)
10) Shailene Woodley/The Fault in Our Stars (10) (7)


Comment: The category may be locked with these top five.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) JK Simmons/Whiplash (1) (1)
2) Edward Norton/Birdman (2) 
3) Ethan Hawke/Boyhood (3) (4)
4) Mark Ruffalo/Foxcatcher (4) (3)
5) Robert Duvall/The Judge (5) (8)

6) Josh Brolin/Inherent Vice (6) (5)
7) Tom Wilkinson/Selma (7) (7)
8) Miyavi/Unbroken (8)
9) Christoph Waltz/Big Eyes (9)
10) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher (NR)

Comment:  Carell's nomination in this category by the Brits sent up a flare that there could be some sentiment that he should be in the same category on Thursday morning and so, for the first time, he appears in Supporting.  Honestly, though, the top five are really solid.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Patricia Arquette/Boyhood (1) (1)
2) Emma Stone/Birdman (3) (4)
3) Kiera Knightley/The Imitation Game (4) (2)
4) Meryl Streep/Into the Woods (2)
5) Jessica Chastain/A Most Violent Year (5) (8)

6) Laura Dern/Wild (6) (3)
7) Rene Russo/Nightcrawler (10)
8) Tilda Swinton/Snowpiercer (7)
9) Naomi Watts/St. Vincent (8)
10) Carmen Ejogo/Selma (9) (9)

Comment:  Meryl Streep with a late slide...giving Laura Dern a bit of life.  Rene Russo is also very, very hot.  Don't be stunned if she has the fifth spot Thursday morning.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Imitation Game (1) (2)
2) Gone Girl (2) (6)
3) The Theory of Everything (3) (3)
4) Wild (4) (8)
5) American Sniper (7) (4)

6) Inherent Vice (5) (5)
7) Whiplash (NR)
8) Unbroken (6) (1)
9) Into the Woods (8) (7)
10) Still Alice (9)

Comment:  The revelation that "Whiplash" was categorized by The Academy as an Adapted script has this and the Original Screenplay race reflecting a new reality at the 11th hour.  Next to JK Simmons, a screenplay nomination has always been the second best possibility for a "Whiplash" Oscar nomination.  So, it shows up here at #7 in its first appearance in the category it will actually be eligible for.   I suspect it gets a nomination here and bumps "Wild" or "Sniper".



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Boyhood (1) (2)
2) Birdman (2) (1)
3) The Grand Budapest Hotel (3) (4)

4) Nightcrawler (6)

5) Selma (5) (9)

6) Foxcatcher (7) (3)

7) Mr. Turner (8) (5)

8) A Most Violent Year (9) (7)

9) The LEGO Movie (10)

10) Wild Tales (11)

Comment:  "Whiplash's" departure from this category opens a chance for "Foxcatcher" to hop back in.

ANIMATED FEATURE

1) The LEGO Movie

2) How to Train a Your Dragon 2

3) Big Hero 6

4) The Boxtrolls

5) The Story of Princess Kaguya

6) The Book of Life

7) The Song of the Sea

8) Rio 2

9) Cheatin'

10) The Penguins of Madagascar

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1)  Citizenfour

2) Life Itself

3) Keep On Keepin' On

4) The Last Days of Vietnam

5) The Overnighters

6) The Case Against 8

7) Virunga

8) Finding Vivan Maier

9) Tales of the Grim Sleeper

10) Salt of the Earth

Foreign Language Film

1) Ida (TFF #40)

2) Wild Tales 

3) Force Majeure

4) Leviathan

5) Timbuktu

6) Tangerines

7) The Liberator

8) Accused

9) Corn Island

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Birdman

2) Mr. Turner

3) Unbroken

4) Interstellar

5) The Theory of Everything

6) Selma

7) The Grand Budapest Hotel

8) Gone Girl

9) A Most Violent Year

10) Into the Woods

COSTUMES

1) Into the Woods

2) Mr. Turner

3) The Grand Budapest Hotel

4) Malificent

5) Selma

6) Big Eyes

7) The Imitation Game

8) The Theory of Everything

9) Exodus; Gods and Kings

10) Inherent Vice

FILM EDITING

1) Boyhood

2) Birdman

3) The Imitation Game

4) Whiplash

5) Gone Girl

6) Selma

7) Unbroken

8) Foxcatcher

9) Interstellar

10) American Sniper

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel

2) Guardians of the Galaxy

3) Foxcatcher

4) Malificent

5) The Theory of Everything

6) Noah

7) The Amazing Spiderman 2

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Theory of Everything

2) The Imitation Game

3) Interstellar

4) Gone Girl

5) Unbroken

6) The Grand Budapest Hotel

7) The Judge

8) The Homesman

9) How to Train Your Dragon 2

10) Fury

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Glory/Selma

2) Lost Stars/Begin Again

3) Everything is Awesome/The LEGO Movie

4) Mercy is/Noah

5) Big Eyes/ Big Eyes

6) Miracle/Unbroken

7) Yellow Flicker Beat/Hunger Games; Mockingjay Part One

8) I'm not Gonna Miss You/Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me

9) Split the Difference/Boyhood

10) Opportunity/Annie

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel

2) Into the Woods

3) Mr. Turner

4) Birdman

5) The Imitation Game

6) Interstellar

7) Malificent

8) Unbroken

9) The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

10) Snowpiercer

SOUND EDITING

1) Interstellar

2) Fury

3) Unbroken

4) Godzilla

5) Birdman

6) American Sniper

7) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

8) Guardians of the Galaxy

9) Transformers 4

10) Into the Woods

SOUND MIXING

1) Into the Woods

2) Unbroken

3) Transformers 4

4) Interstellar

5) Get On Up

6) Fury

7) American Sniper

8) Whiplash

9) Guardians of the Galaxy

10) The Hobbit; The Battle of the Five Armies

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Interstellar

2) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

3) Guardians of the Galaxy

4) The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

5) Godzilla

6) Transformers 4

7) X-Men: Days of Future Past

8) Malificent

9) Captain America; The Winter Soldier

10) Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb


NOTE: There appears, in the late going, to be a surge in "American Sniper's" direction.  A lot of pundits now think it's a likely Best Picture nomination and potentially more.  Don't be surprised if it pops up Thursday morning.  "Sniper"  could see as many as seven nominations.  

TELLURIDE #41 OSCAR BREAKDOWN

If The FAC was 100% accurate (and it's NOT...remember, past experience has shown The FAC to be 75-80% accurate on Oscar nomination morning with about 80% of the "misses' coming from the #6 spot in each category...except for Best Picture, of course)...

Anyway, if The FAC is 100% accurate, here's what would be the breakdown:

Telluride #41 Films would have 28 nominations ("Ida" in foreign film would go back to add to the TFF #40 total...which sits at 34 as a result) with another 12 possibilities.

They'd be spread as such:

"Birdman" Ten nominations (the most of any film and likely the only film with double digit nominations): Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design and Sound Editing.  

"The Imitation Game" Eight nominations (the second largest number of nominations of any film):  Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Original Score and Production Design.  It could also be nominated for Best Costumes.

"Mr. Turner" Three nominations: Cinematography, Costumes and Production Design.  "Turner" could also get into the act with nominations for Best Actor and Original Screenplay.

"Foxcatcher" Two nominations: Supporting Actor and Makeup/Hair.  "Foxcatcher" has one of the larger "possibility" profiles of any film with "maybes" for Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay and Film Editing.

"Wild": Two nominations: Actress and Original Screenplay.  Also a "maybe" for: Supporting Actress.

Foreign Films : "Wild Tales" and "Leviathan" with the aforementioned TFF #40 title, "Ida", a likely nominee.

Documentary Feature:  "Keep on Keepin' On" looks like a a nominees with "Tales of the Grim Sleeper" and "Salt of the Earth" as also possibles.  You can semi-add "Life Itself" as it screened in Telluride the night before the festival opened in Elks Park.

Two other TFF titles have possible Oscar nominations.  "The Homesman" is still in the mix for Best Actress and Best Original Score and "Two Days, One Night" could also see a Best Actress nomination for Marion Cotillard.

Non-Telluride films are led by "Boyhood", "Selma", "The Theory of Everything" and "The Grand Budapest Hotel" all with six probable nominations.

Expected to get five noms are: "Unbroken", "Interstellar" and "Gone Girl"

Four noms to" "Whiplash" and "Into the Woods"

Two nominations for: "The LEGO Movie", "How to Train Your Dragon 2", "Guardians of the Galaxy" and "Godzilla"


FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

I've linked someof final Oscar predictions from experts.  I'll update this list throughout the day so check back...

Peter Knegt of IndieWire:

 http://www.indiewire.com/article/for-your-consideration-final-2015-oscar-nomination-predictions-20150113

Tomris Laffly of Popcorn Business:

http://popcornbusiness.blogspot.com/2015/01/predictions-for-87th-academy-awards.html

Clayton Davis of Awards Circuit:

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-predictions/2014-oscar-predictions-best-motion-picture/


The Playlist's final Oscar predictions:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-playlists-final-predictions-for-the-87th-academy-award-nominations-20150113

Kris Tapley and Greg Ellwood at HitFix/InContention:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/final-predictions-for-the-2015-oscar-nominations


Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/final-oscar-nomination-predictions-20150114

Jenelle Reilly/Variety:

http://variety.com/2015/film/awards/oscar-nomination-predictions-2015-1201405074/

Steve Pond/The Wrap:

http://www.thewrap.com/oscar-nomination-predictions-can-jennifer-aniston-and-jake-gyllenhaal-find-a-way-in/

Brad Brevet/Rope of Silcon:

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/final-2015-oscar-nomination-predictions/


Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/nominees/oscars/2015/oscars1142015


Sasha Stone/Awards Daily:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/01/awardsdailys-final-oscar-predictions/