Sixteen Oscar Categories/The Big Eight Again/Final Predictions from the Experts

Good Thursday Everyone...Oscar happens in 3 days!

SIXTEEN OSCAR CATEGORIES

Here's where The Film Awards Clearinghouse is as far the "below-the-line" Oscar categories are concerned.

The FAC uses the published predictions of the following to develop its list of likely Oscar winners:

Kristopher Tapley/InContention/HitFix

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Bred Brevet/Rope of Silicon

Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

Peter Knegt/IndieWire

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Telluride #41 films are Bold. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) How to Train Your Dragon 2
2) Big Hero 6
3) The Boxtrolls
4) The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
5) Song of the Sea

Comment:  "Dragon's" lead is substantial.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Citizenfour
2) Virunga
3) The Last Days of Vietnam
4) Finding Vivian Maier
5) Salt of the Earth

Comment: It's a huge surprise if "Citizenfour" doesn't win.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Ida
2) Wild Tales
3) Leviathan
4) Timbuktu
5) Tangerines

Comment:  "Ida" is out front, but any of the top three films could win.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Birdman
2) The Grand Budapest Hotel
3) Mr. Turner
4) Unbroken
5) Ida

Comment: "Birdman" easily.  Lubezki wins second in a row.

BEST COSTUMES

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Into the Woods
3) Mr. Turner
4) Malificent
5) Inherent Vice

Comment: "Budapest" is likely but "Into the Woods" could surprise.

BEST FILM EDITING

1) Boyhood
2) Whiplash
3) American Sniper
4) The Grand Budapest Hotel
5) The Imitation Game

Comment: "Boyhood's" perceived lead is huge.  Personally, I could see a "Whiplash" upset here.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Guardians of the Galaxy
3) Foxcatcher

Comment:  A "Budapest" win is very likely but not a slam dunk.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel (tie)
2) The Theory of Everything
3) The Imitation Game
4) Interstellar
5) Mr. Turner

Comment: This race is a dead heat with "Budapest" getting the edge based on #1 positions among the experts I analyze.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Glory/Selma
2) I'm not Gonna Miss You/I'll Be Me
3) Everything is Awesome/The LEGO Movie
4) Lost Stars/Begin Again
5) Grateful/Beyond the Lights

Comment: "Glory"   has the edge in a notoriously difficult category to predict.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Into the Woods
3) Mr. Turner
4) The Imitation Game
5) Interstellar

Comment: "Budapest" with a substantial edge here.

BEST SOUND EDITING

1) American Sniper
2) Birdman
3) Interstellar
4) Unbroken
5) The Hobbit: Smaug

Comment:  "Sniper" has a solid lead.

BEST SOUND MIXING

1) American Sniper
2) Birdman
3) Whiplash
4) Interstellar
5) Unbroken

Comment: "Sniper's" position is less secure here as opposed to Sound Editing...

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Interstellar
2) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
3) Guardians of the Galaxy
4) Captain America: The Winter Soldier
5) X-Men: Days of Future Past

Comment: This is a close race between the top three in the category.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) The Bigger Picture (3 way tie)
2) Feast
2) The Dam Keeper
4) A Single Life
5) Me and My Moulton

Comment: This race is too close to call between all three of the top listed films.  "Bigger Picture" got The FAC nod as it's listed at the top by two of the experts.  Frankly, I'm leaning toward "The Dam Keeper".

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Crisis Hotline
2) Joanna
3) The Reaper
4) White Earth
5) Our Curse

Comment: a two film race between "Crisis" and "Joanna".

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) The Phone Call
2) Parveneh
3) Boogaloo and Graham
4) Butter Lamp
5) Aya

Comment: "Phone Call" with a slight edge in a category that any of the five could win.


THE BIG EIGHT AGAIN

This is a re-post of the Big Eight categories that I posted on Sunday.  EXPECT AN UPDATE ON OSCAR MORNING!!!

BEST PICTURE

1) Birdman
2) Boyhood
3) The Imitation Game
4) American Sniper
5) The Grand Budapest Hotel
6) Selma
7) The Theory of Everything
8) Whiplash

Comment:  "Birdman" and "Boyhood" swap spots at the top of the chart as a result of "Birdman" guild wins in the past few eeks (PGA, DGA, SAG) but it is soooooo close.  The metric I use, has them separated by one point...ONE.  Four experts say "Bird": Feinberg, Brevet, Davis and Knegt. Stone, Tapley and Thompson have "Boyhood" on top.  It's a nail biter.

FURTHER NOTE: Since Sunday's original post, Tapley has gone back to a "Birdman" choice, giving the Inarritu film a little breathing room.

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Richard Linklater/Boyhood
2) Alejandro Inarritu/Birdman
3) Wes Anderson/The Grand Budapest Hotel
4) Morten Tyldum/The Imitation Game
5) Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher

Comment:  Linklater stays on top here but, again, the separation is ONE POINT between he and Inarritu.  Inarritu's DGA win weighs heavily in the closeness of this race as well.  There is an increasing speculation that The Academy may well split picture and director this year as it did last year.  That'd be weird, but the season has been weird.  What's weirder is that buzz cuts both ways with some in the biz suggesting a Bird BP win with a Linklater directing Oscar and others doing a "180" and suggesting a "Boyhood" BP win and the directing trophy to go to Inarritu.  My personal feeling, perhaps only transitionally, is that Bird/Inarritu are going to win both.

BEST ACTOR

1) Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything
2) Michael Keaton/Birdman
3) Bradley Cooper/American Sniper
4) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game
5) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher

Comment:  Redmayne's lead has opened up a bit over the last couple of weeks but it's still not enough to declare him a lock for Oscar on Sunday night.  I still think Keaton has a shot.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Julianne Moore/Still Alice
2) Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything
3) Reese Witherspoon/Wild
4) Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl
5) Marion Cotillard/Two Days One Night

Comment: One of the three acting trophies that are locked up.  Moore wins.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Patricia Arquette/Boyhood
2) Emma Stone/Birdman
3) Kiera Knightley/The Imitation Game
4) Laura Dern/Wild
5) Meryl Streep/Into the Woods

Comment:  Ms. Arquette will have an Oscar to take to the CSI: Cyber set next week.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) JK Simmons/Whiplash
2) Edward Norton/Birdman
3) Ethan Hawke/Boyhood
4) Mark Ruffalo/Foxcatcher
5) Robert Duvall/The Judge

Comment: JK wins.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Whiplash
2) American Sniper
3) The Imitation Game
4) The Theory of Everything
5) Inherent Vice

Comment:  This is a competitive category with "Sniper" moving up the chart strongly over the past couple of weeks.  I could see this landing for any of the five.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Birdman
3) Boyhood
4) Nightcrawler
5) Foxcatcher

Comment: Also an uber competitive category.  "Budapest"  edges past "Birdman" but it's very, very close.  Also, don't count out a "Boyhood" win here.

FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

I'm linking the "final" Oscar predictions here from any number of Oscarologists some of which I use for The FAC, some I don't.  I'll update the "Finals" section as we go through the rest of the week...

Gurus of Gold:

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/02/gurus-o-gold-the-final-vote-every-category-1-of-2/

Awards Circuit/Clayton Davis:

http://www.awardscircuit.com/2015/02/18/oscars-2015-will-winshould-win-mike-ward/

The Hollywood Reporter/Scott Feinberg and Todd McCarthy:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-predictions-2015-who-will-774490

The Wrap/Steve Pond:

http://www.thewrap.com/oscars-24-final-will-win-should-win-predictions-birdman-boyhood-budapest-top-baffling-year/

IndieWire/Oliver Lyttleton:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/who-should-win-who-will-win-predicting-the-2015-oscars-20150218

Deadline/Pete Hammond:

http://deadline.com/2015/02/oscar-predictions-2015-who-will-win-academy-awards-1201374854/


Again, a FINAL FAC ON SUNDAY...

Parsing the Oscars Through Telluride's Lense

The nominating is all done.  Now onto the ceremony on Feb. 22

PARSING THE OSCARS (THROUGH TELLURIDE'S LENSE

TFF #41 produces films that grab 33 Oscar nominations plus an additional two from TFF #40 title "Ida".

The breakdown:

Birdman-Nine- Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.  Surprisingly NOT nominated for Film Editing (could tell you that it doesn't have a shot at winning Best Picture), or Production Design.

The Imitation Game- Eight-Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Production Design and Original Score.  That's exactly what The FAC had for this film.

Foxcatcher-Five- Direction, Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Makeup/Hair. Foxcatcher really over-performed based on what The FAC expected but tell me how the film can be one of the five best directed, best written and best acted films and NOT be nominated for Best Picture?  More admired than loved, I guess.

Mr. Turner-Four- Original Score, Production Design, Cinematography and Costumes.  The score nomination was a surprise.

Wild-Two-Best Actress and Supporting Actress.  Laura Dern sneaks in ahead of Rene Russo.

Two Days, One Night-One-Marion Cotillard gets a nod ahead of Jennifer Aniston and Amy Adams.

Single nominations for: "Salt of the Earth" as Best Doc Feature and "Leviathan" and "Wild Tales" for Foreign Language.  "Feast" was nominated for Best Animated Short.

Overall, a remarkable year for Telluride films as far as Oscar recognition.

The FAC goes 75 out of 106 this morning or 71%...one of the least successful rates since I started doing this.  Lots of 3/5 categories.  The FAC's best category: Supporting Actor where I went 5/5 and Makeup...3/3.  Worst categories: Doc Feature and Sound Mixing -2/5 in each. In the "close but no cigar" dept.  Seven categories had nominations from a film that The FAC had as the #6 possibility.

Surprises and weirdness:

In addition to my amazement mentioned above vis-a-vis "Foxcatcher"...

The "American Sniper" trend turned out to be real...very real.  Six nominations...Picture, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Sound Editing and Mixing.  The Final FAC had "Sniper" getting one nomination for screenplay.

"Budapest" performed better than expected and "Boyhood" (which is still your favorite for Best Pic, Director, Original Screenplay and Supporting Actress...but...see below) did exactly what was expected.

"Birdman" underperformed. as The FAC had it getting 10 nominations including Film Editing and Production Design on which is missed.  It did get a Sound Mixing nomination, which was a bit of a surprise.

"Selma"  Only two nominations...Song and Picture...how very odd.

"The Imitation Game" The FAC predicted "The Imitation Game eight nominations exactly.  Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Direction, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Production Design and Score.

Category notes:

The Bennett Miller directing nomination is really a surprise.
Let this be remembered: don't bet against Bradley Cooper for an acting nomination.
"Birdman's" lack of a film editing nomination is probably an indication it won't be a Best Picture winner.
Best Song: "Grateful" from "Beyond the Lights" wasn't even in The FAC's final ten.
No "LEGO Movie" for Animated Feature...it was easily #1 in The FAC...that's a huge surprise.
No one can figure out Documentary feature nominees...
"Ida" for cinematography...way to go Kris Tapley!


Finally..."Boyhood", as mentioned above, is still your favorite...but...clearly The Academy loves "Grand Budapest" and "Imitation Game".  At this point, if an upset is to occur, it'll be one of those two films.

Early faves in each major category:

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
Best Original Screenplay: Boyhood
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette/Boyhood
Best Supporting Actor: JK Simmons/Whiplash
Best Actress: Julianne Moore/Still Alice
Best Actor: Michael Keaton/Birdman
Best Direction: Richard Linklater/Boyhood
Best Picture: Boyhood.

More later...and on Monday!

The (Probably) Final FAC

Welcome to this special Wednesday edition of The Film Awards Clearinghouse with less than 24 hours to go before the announcement of Oscar nominations...

THE (PROBABLY) FINAL FAC

Here's the last posting of the 21 Feature categories nomination predictions.

The FAC uses the published predictions of the following to develop its list of likely Oscar nominees:

Kristopher Tapley/InContention/HitFix

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Bred Brevet/Rope of Silicon

Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience

Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

Peter Knegt/IndieWire

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Telluride #41 films are Bold (with their last rating in parentheses followed by the original FAC ranking from Vol 1. back on  ).

Today, I update the eight major categories:

BEST PICTURE

1) Boyhood (1) (2)
2) Birdman (2) (1)
3) The Imitation Game (3) (3)
4) The Theory of Everything (5) (6)
5) Selma (4)
6) The Grand Budapest Hotel (6) (10)
7) Whiplash (7)
8) Gone Girl (9) (8)
9) Nightcrawler (11)

If The Academy follows form from the last three years, this would be the cut off at nine nominations.

10) American Sniper (13)
11) Foxcatcher (10) (4)
12) Unbroken (8) (5)
13) Into the Woods (12)
14) Interstellar (14) (7)
15) Mr. Turner (15) (9)


Comment:"Selma" seems to be taking a small hit in the estimation of this collective of Oscarologists probably due the lack of a PGA nomination and The BAFTA snubbing that happened earlier this week.  "Nightcrawler" and "American Sniper" both seem to have realistic chances to get a Best Picture nomination although I continue to cross my fingers for Bennett Miller's "Foxcatcher".

"Unbroken's" fall from favor appears to be complete.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Richard Linklater/Boyhood (1) (2)
2) Alejandro Inarritu/Birdman (2) (1)
3) Ava DuVernay/Selma (3)
4) Morten Tyldum/The Imitation Game (4) (6)
5) Wes Anderson/The Grand Budapest Hotel (5) (9)

6) David Fincher/Gone Girl (6)
7) Damien Chazelle/Whiplash (7)
8) Clint Eastwood/American Sniper (9)
9) Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher (8) (3)
10) James Marsh/The Theory of Everything (13)

Comment: The "Selma" slide doesn't show any effect in this category.  Marsh rebounds a little and Jolie seems to be done.


BEST ACTOR

1) Michael Keaton/Birdman (1) (1)
2) Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything (2) (4)
3) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game (4) (2)
4) David Oyelowo/Selma (3) (6)
5) Jake Gyllenhaal/Nightcrawler (5)

6) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher (6) (3)
7) Ralph Fiennes/The Grand Budapest Hotel (8) (7)
8) Timothy Spall/Mr. Turner(7) (5)
9) Bradley Cooper/American Sniper (9)
10) Oscar Isaac/A Most Violent Year (10)

Comment:  Oyelowo may have suffered a bit.  Top three seem to be solid and then the next four: Oyelowo, Gyllenhaal, Carell and Fiennes fighting for that last two spots.


BEST ACTRESS

1) Julianne Moore/Still Alice (1) (8)
2) Reese Witherspoon/Wild (2) (1)
3) Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything (3) (4)
4) Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl (4) (3)
5) Jennifer Aniston/Cake (5)

6) Amy Adams/Big Eyes (7) (2)
7) Marion Cotillard/Two Days, One Night (6)
8) Hilary Swank/The Homesman (8) (6)
9) Emily Blunt/Into the Woods (9)
10) Shailene Woodley/The Fault in Our Stars (10) (7)


Comment: The category may be locked with these top five.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) JK Simmons/Whiplash (1) (1)
2) Edward Norton/Birdman (2) 
3) Ethan Hawke/Boyhood (3) (4)
4) Mark Ruffalo/Foxcatcher (4) (3)
5) Robert Duvall/The Judge (5) (8)

6) Josh Brolin/Inherent Vice (6) (5)
7) Tom Wilkinson/Selma (7) (7)
8) Miyavi/Unbroken (8)
9) Christoph Waltz/Big Eyes (9)
10) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher (NR)

Comment:  Carell's nomination in this category by the Brits sent up a flare that there could be some sentiment that he should be in the same category on Thursday morning and so, for the first time, he appears in Supporting.  Honestly, though, the top five are really solid.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Patricia Arquette/Boyhood (1) (1)
2) Emma Stone/Birdman (3) (4)
3) Kiera Knightley/The Imitation Game (4) (2)
4) Meryl Streep/Into the Woods (2)
5) Jessica Chastain/A Most Violent Year (5) (8)

6) Laura Dern/Wild (6) (3)
7) Rene Russo/Nightcrawler (10)
8) Tilda Swinton/Snowpiercer (7)
9) Naomi Watts/St. Vincent (8)
10) Carmen Ejogo/Selma (9) (9)

Comment:  Meryl Streep with a late slide...giving Laura Dern a bit of life.  Rene Russo is also very, very hot.  Don't be stunned if she has the fifth spot Thursday morning.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Imitation Game (1) (2)
2) Gone Girl (2) (6)
3) The Theory of Everything (3) (3)
4) Wild (4) (8)
5) American Sniper (7) (4)

6) Inherent Vice (5) (5)
7) Whiplash (NR)
8) Unbroken (6) (1)
9) Into the Woods (8) (7)
10) Still Alice (9)

Comment:  The revelation that "Whiplash" was categorized by The Academy as an Adapted script has this and the Original Screenplay race reflecting a new reality at the 11th hour.  Next to JK Simmons, a screenplay nomination has always been the second best possibility for a "Whiplash" Oscar nomination.  So, it shows up here at #7 in its first appearance in the category it will actually be eligible for.   I suspect it gets a nomination here and bumps "Wild" or "Sniper".



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Boyhood (1) (2)
2) Birdman (2) (1)
3) The Grand Budapest Hotel (3) (4)

4) Nightcrawler (6)

5) Selma (5) (9)

6) Foxcatcher (7) (3)

7) Mr. Turner (8) (5)

8) A Most Violent Year (9) (7)

9) The LEGO Movie (10)

10) Wild Tales (11)

Comment:  "Whiplash's" departure from this category opens a chance for "Foxcatcher" to hop back in.

ANIMATED FEATURE

1) The LEGO Movie

2) How to Train a Your Dragon 2

3) Big Hero 6

4) The Boxtrolls

5) The Story of Princess Kaguya

6) The Book of Life

7) The Song of the Sea

8) Rio 2

9) Cheatin'

10) The Penguins of Madagascar

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1)  Citizenfour

2) Life Itself

3) Keep On Keepin' On

4) The Last Days of Vietnam

5) The Overnighters

6) The Case Against 8

7) Virunga

8) Finding Vivan Maier

9) Tales of the Grim Sleeper

10) Salt of the Earth

Foreign Language Film

1) Ida (TFF #40)

2) Wild Tales 

3) Force Majeure

4) Leviathan

5) Timbuktu

6) Tangerines

7) The Liberator

8) Accused

9) Corn Island

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Birdman

2) Mr. Turner

3) Unbroken

4) Interstellar

5) The Theory of Everything

6) Selma

7) The Grand Budapest Hotel

8) Gone Girl

9) A Most Violent Year

10) Into the Woods

COSTUMES

1) Into the Woods

2) Mr. Turner

3) The Grand Budapest Hotel

4) Malificent

5) Selma

6) Big Eyes

7) The Imitation Game

8) The Theory of Everything

9) Exodus; Gods and Kings

10) Inherent Vice

FILM EDITING

1) Boyhood

2) Birdman

3) The Imitation Game

4) Whiplash

5) Gone Girl

6) Selma

7) Unbroken

8) Foxcatcher

9) Interstellar

10) American Sniper

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel

2) Guardians of the Galaxy

3) Foxcatcher

4) Malificent

5) The Theory of Everything

6) Noah

7) The Amazing Spiderman 2

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Theory of Everything

2) The Imitation Game

3) Interstellar

4) Gone Girl

5) Unbroken

6) The Grand Budapest Hotel

7) The Judge

8) The Homesman

9) How to Train Your Dragon 2

10) Fury

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Glory/Selma

2) Lost Stars/Begin Again

3) Everything is Awesome/The LEGO Movie

4) Mercy is/Noah

5) Big Eyes/ Big Eyes

6) Miracle/Unbroken

7) Yellow Flicker Beat/Hunger Games; Mockingjay Part One

8) I'm not Gonna Miss You/Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me

9) Split the Difference/Boyhood

10) Opportunity/Annie

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel

2) Into the Woods

3) Mr. Turner

4) Birdman

5) The Imitation Game

6) Interstellar

7) Malificent

8) Unbroken

9) The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

10) Snowpiercer

SOUND EDITING

1) Interstellar

2) Fury

3) Unbroken

4) Godzilla

5) Birdman

6) American Sniper

7) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

8) Guardians of the Galaxy

9) Transformers 4

10) Into the Woods

SOUND MIXING

1) Into the Woods

2) Unbroken

3) Transformers 4

4) Interstellar

5) Get On Up

6) Fury

7) American Sniper

8) Whiplash

9) Guardians of the Galaxy

10) The Hobbit; The Battle of the Five Armies

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Interstellar

2) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

3) Guardians of the Galaxy

4) The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

5) Godzilla

6) Transformers 4

7) X-Men: Days of Future Past

8) Malificent

9) Captain America; The Winter Soldier

10) Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb


NOTE: There appears, in the late going, to be a surge in "American Sniper's" direction.  A lot of pundits now think it's a likely Best Picture nomination and potentially more.  Don't be surprised if it pops up Thursday morning.  "Sniper"  could see as many as seven nominations.  

TELLURIDE #41 OSCAR BREAKDOWN

If The FAC was 100% accurate (and it's NOT...remember, past experience has shown The FAC to be 75-80% accurate on Oscar nomination morning with about 80% of the "misses' coming from the #6 spot in each category...except for Best Picture, of course)...

Anyway, if The FAC is 100% accurate, here's what would be the breakdown:

Telluride #41 Films would have 28 nominations ("Ida" in foreign film would go back to add to the TFF #40 total...which sits at 34 as a result) with another 12 possibilities.

They'd be spread as such:

"Birdman" Ten nominations (the most of any film and likely the only film with double digit nominations): Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design and Sound Editing.  

"The Imitation Game" Eight nominations (the second largest number of nominations of any film):  Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Original Score and Production Design.  It could also be nominated for Best Costumes.

"Mr. Turner" Three nominations: Cinematography, Costumes and Production Design.  "Turner" could also get into the act with nominations for Best Actor and Original Screenplay.

"Foxcatcher" Two nominations: Supporting Actor and Makeup/Hair.  "Foxcatcher" has one of the larger "possibility" profiles of any film with "maybes" for Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay and Film Editing.

"Wild": Two nominations: Actress and Original Screenplay.  Also a "maybe" for: Supporting Actress.

Foreign Films : "Wild Tales" and "Leviathan" with the aforementioned TFF #40 title, "Ida", a likely nominee.

Documentary Feature:  "Keep on Keepin' On" looks like a a nominees with "Tales of the Grim Sleeper" and "Salt of the Earth" as also possibles.  You can semi-add "Life Itself" as it screened in Telluride the night before the festival opened in Elks Park.

Two other TFF titles have possible Oscar nominations.  "The Homesman" is still in the mix for Best Actress and Best Original Score and "Two Days, One Night" could also see a Best Actress nomination for Marion Cotillard.

Non-Telluride films are led by "Boyhood", "Selma", "The Theory of Everything" and "The Grand Budapest Hotel" all with six probable nominations.

Expected to get five noms are: "Unbroken", "Interstellar" and "Gone Girl"

Four noms to" "Whiplash" and "Into the Woods"

Two nominations for: "The LEGO Movie", "How to Train Your Dragon 2", "Guardians of the Galaxy" and "Godzilla"


FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

I've linked someof final Oscar predictions from experts.  I'll update this list throughout the day so check back...

Peter Knegt of IndieWire:

 http://www.indiewire.com/article/for-your-consideration-final-2015-oscar-nomination-predictions-20150113

Tomris Laffly of Popcorn Business:

http://popcornbusiness.blogspot.com/2015/01/predictions-for-87th-academy-awards.html

Clayton Davis of Awards Circuit:

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-predictions/2014-oscar-predictions-best-motion-picture/


The Playlist's final Oscar predictions:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-playlists-final-predictions-for-the-87th-academy-award-nominations-20150113

Kris Tapley and Greg Ellwood at HitFix/InContention:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/final-predictions-for-the-2015-oscar-nominations


Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/final-oscar-nomination-predictions-20150114

Jenelle Reilly/Variety:

http://variety.com/2015/film/awards/oscar-nomination-predictions-2015-1201405074/

Steve Pond/The Wrap:

http://www.thewrap.com/oscar-nomination-predictions-can-jennifer-aniston-and-jake-gyllenhaal-find-a-way-in/

Brad Brevet/Rope of Silcon:

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/final-2015-oscar-nomination-predictions/


Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/nominees/oscars/2015/oscars1142015


Sasha Stone/Awards Daily:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/01/awardsdailys-final-oscar-predictions/

Film Awards Clearinghouse Vol. 5A: Picture, Director, Actress, Actor/WGA Excludes/Oscar Doc List at 15/NYFCC and NBR Announce

FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE VOL. 5A

Here's the latest FAC focused on Best Picture, Director, Actress and Actor.

The FAC uses the published predictions of the following to develop its list of likely Oscar nominees:

Kristopher Tapley/InContention/HitFix
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Bred Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Telluride #41 films are Bold (with their last rating in parentheses).

BEST PICTURE

1) Boyhood (1)
2) Selma (9)
3) Birdman (2)
4) The Imitation Game (3)
5) The Theory of Everything (4)
6) Unbroken (5)
7) Whiplash (6)
8) Gone Girl (8)
9) Foxcatcher (10)
10) Interstellar (7)
11) American Sniper (12)
12) Into the Woods (13)
13) Mr. Turner (11)
14) A Most Violent Year (14)
15) The Grand Budapest Hotel (15)

Hot: Selma's march to serious contender status is complete as it zooms past a number of serious Best Pic contenders to challenge "Boyhood".

Not: "Interstellar" takes the biggest slide which seems about right to me.  "Mr. Turner" also slides  a good bit.

It'll be interesting to see if this week's awards announcements from the New York critics, the Gotham Awards and The National Board of Review (in addition to the L.A. critics  and The American Film Institutes's list coming this weekend) have an effect when we next post these categories in a couple of weeks.  Additionally, all of the players have now been seen in some form by some people.

I'd expect that "Boyhood", "Birdman" and "A Most Violent Year" have had the best of it from NBR, NYFCC and The Gothams.  NBR's omission of "Theory" and "Selma" is curious.

BEST DIRECTION

Director Morten Tyldum/The Imitation Game

1) Richard Linklater/Boyhood (1)
2) Alejandro Inarritu/Birdman (2)
3) Ava DuVernay/Selma (7)
4) Morten Tyldum/The Imitation Game (3)
5) Angelina Jolie/Unbroken (5)
6) David Fincher (6)
7) Damien Chazelle/Whiplash (8)
8) James Marsh/The Theory of Everything (12)
9) Christopher Nolan/Interstellar (4)
10) Bennett Miller /Foxcatcher (9)

Hot: DuVernay

Not: Nolan

The director's race gives, I think, a real window as to the Best Picture race.  "Selma's" Ava DuVernay has also rocketed from the edge of consideration into the thick of the race.  Meanwhile, Chris Nolan's plunge here is even more precipitous than "Interstellar's" drop in the Best Picture category.


BEST ACTRESS

Hilary Swank/The Homesman

1) Julianne Moore/Still Alice (1)
2) Reese Witherspoon/Wild (2)
3) Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything (3)
4) Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl (4)
5) Hilary Swank/The Homesman (6)
6) Amy Adams/Big Eyes (5)
7) Emily Blunt/Into the Woods (7)
8) Shailene Woodley/The Fault in Our Stars (8)
9) Jennifer Aniston/Cake (17)
10) Gugu Mbatha-Raw/Belle (12)


Hot:Aniston and Mbatha-Raw.  Aniston rises like a rocket over the last three weeks.  If she continues at this rate, she could sneak into the fifth spot.

Not: Cotillard.  It'll be interesting to see if Cotillard's NYFCC win has an impact on this chart in a couple of weeks.   Chastain also falls out with the realization that her role in "A Most Violent Year" is supporting.


BEST ACTOR

Steve Carell/Foxcatcher

1) Michael Keaton/Birdman (1)
2) Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything (2)
3) Benedcit Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game (3)
4) David Oyelowo/Selma (5)
5) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher (4)
6) Bradley Cooper/American Sniper (8)
7) Timothy Spall/Mr. Turner (6)
8) Oscar Isaac/A Most Violent Year (7)
9) Jake O'Connell/Unbroken (9)
10) Jake Gyllenhaal/Nightcrawler (10)

Hot: Cooper.

Not: Nobody.

It says a lot about the toughness of this category that Oyelowo barely benefits from the rocket ship that "Selma" has become the last couple of weeks.  I'm also interested to see if Spall's NTFCC win translates into increased support.


Next week, the supporting and screenplay updates.


WGA GUIDELINES EXCLUDE SOME SCRIPTS

As is the case every year, some screenplays that will be Oscar eligible are not eligible for the Writers' Guild honors.  InContention posted this story outlining some of the Oscar favorites that won't be a part of the WGA awards: (including Telluride films: "Mr. Turner" and "Wild Tales"

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/exclusive-selma-theory-mr-turner-among-2014-scripts-not-eligible-for-wga-awards


OSCAR DOC LIST IS DOWN TO 15

The Academy pared the number of possible Best Documentary nominees to a list of 15 films this week.  I have linked Variety's story that provides the list of 15.  On the list are three TFF #41 films: "Keep on Keepin' On", "Tales of the Grim Sleeper" and "The Salt of the Earth".  Also included is "Jodorowsky's Dune" which was on the program at TFF #40.

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/15-documentaries-land-on-oscars-short-list-1201368807/


AWARDS REVIEW FROM THIS WEEK:  NYFCC AND NBR



Here's a re-post of results from the New York Film Critics Circle and the National Board of Review from earlier this week":

New York Film Critics Circle 2014 Awards

Best Animated Feature: “The Lego Movie”

Best Foreign Film: “Ida” (TFF #40)

Best Non-Fiction Film: “Citizenfour”

Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons/”Whiplash”

Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette/”Boyhood”

Best Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Cinematography: “The Immigrant”

Best Actor: Timothy Spall/”Mr. Turner” (TFF #41)

Best Actress: Marion Cotillard/”The Immigrant” and “Two Days, One Night” (TFF #41)

Best First Film: “The Babadook”

Best Director: Richard Linklater/”Boyhood”

Best Picture: “Boyhood”

NBR'S BEST FILMS OF 2014

Telluride Films are Bold

Best Picture: A Most Violent Year

Top Ten Films:
Boyhood
Birdman
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
American Sniper
Unbroken
Fury
The Lego Movie
Inherent Vice
Nightcrawler

Director: Clint Eastwood/American Sniper

Actor: Oscar Isaac/Most Violent Year and Michael Keaton/Birdman (Tie)

Actress: Julianne Moore/Still Alice

Supporting Actor: Edward Norton/Birdman

Supporting Actress: Jessica Chastain/Most Violent Year

Original Screenplay: The Lego Movie

Adapted Screenplay: Inherent Vice

Ensemble: Fury

Breakthrough: Jack O'Connell (Starred Up/Unbroken)

Top Ten Indie Films:

Blue Ruin, Locke, A Most Wanted Man, Obvious Child, The Skeleton Twins, Snowpiercer, Stand Clear of Closing Doors, Starred Up, Still Alice

Foreign Film: Wild Tales

Top Five Foreign Films: Force Majuere, Gett: The Trial of Vivian Amsalem, Leviathan, Two Days One  Night" We Are the Best

Documentary: Life Itself

Top Five Documentaries: Art and Craft, Jodorowsky's Dune, Keep On Keepin' On, The Kill Team, Last Days of Vietnam

Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2

NBR Freedom of Expression Awards: Rosewater, Selma

LA AND AFI

I'll post the announcements from both the L.A. critics and The American Film Institute as they happen over the weekend...as always...More then, on Monday...

National Board of Review Names Best Films of 2014

NBR'S BEST FILMS OF 2014

Telluride Films are Bold

Best Picture: A Most Violent Year

Top Ten Films:
Boyhood
Birdman
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
American Sniper
Unbroken
Fury
The Lego Movie
Inherent Vice
Nightcrawler

Director: Clint Eastwood/American Sniper

Actor: Oscar Isaac/Most Violent Year and Michael Keaton/Birdman (Tie)

Actress: Julianne Moore/Still Alice

Supporting Actor: Edward Norton/Birdman

Supporting Actress: Jessica Chastain/Most Violent Year

Original Screenplay: The Lego Movie

Adapted Screenplay: Inherent Vice

Ensemble: Fury

Breakthrough: Jack O'Connell (Starred Up/Unbroken)

Top Ten Indie Films:

Blue Ruin, Locke, A Most Wanted Man, Obvious Child, The Skeleton Twins, Snowpiercer, Stand Clear of Closing Doors, Starred Up, Still Alice

Foreign Film: Wild Tales

Top Five Foreign Films: Force Majuere, Gett: The Trial of Vivian Amsalem, Leviathan, Two Days One  Night" We Are the Best

Documentary: Life Itself

Top Five Documentaries: Art and Craft, Jodorowsky's Dune, Keep On Keepin' On, The Kill Team, Last Days of Vietnam

Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2

NBR Freedom of Expression Awards: Rosewater, Selma


Comment:  No Foxcatcher anywhere or Theory of Everything either...

Thrilled about Keaton and Norton and the evident love for Birdman.

Independent Spirit Nominations/Predictions for NBR, AFI and NYFCC/Gurus of Gold

Happy Thanksgiving to Everyone and welcome to this truncated version of MTFB/FAC.  The FAC is taking the day off and will return with an updated assessment of the Oscar race next Thursday.  Have a lovely holiday everyone!

2015 FILM INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARD NOMINATIONS

BEST FEATURE
(Award given to the producer. Executive producers are not awarded.)
“Birdman (or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Producers: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, John Lesher, Arnon Milchan, James W. Skotchdopole
“Boyhood”
Producers: Richard Linklater, Jonathan Sehring, John Sloss, Cathleen Sutherland
“Love Is Strange”
Producers: Lucas Joaquin, Lars Knudsen, Ira Sachs, Jayne Baron Sherman, Jay Van Hoy
“Selma”
Producers: Christian Colson, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Oprah Winfrey
“Whiplash”
Producers: Jason Blum, Helen Estabrook, David Lancaster, Michael Litvak

DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle
“Whiplash”
Ava DuVernay
“Selma”
Alejandro G. Iñárritu
“Birdman (or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Richard Linklater
“Boyhood”
David Zellner
“Kumiko, the Treasure Hunter”

SCREENPLAY
Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski
“Big Eyes”
J.C. Chandor
“A Most Violent Year”
Dan Gilroy
“Nightcrawler”
Jim Jarmusch
“Only Lovers Left Alive”
Ira Sachs & Mauricio Zacharias
“Love Is Strange”

BEST FIRST FEATURE (Award given to the director and producer)
“A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night”
Director: Ana Lily Amirpour
Producers: Justin Begnaud, Sina Sayyah
“Dear White People”
Director-producer: Justin Simien
Producers: Effie T. Brown, Ann Le, Julia Lebedev, Angel Lopez, Lena Waithe
“Nightcrawler”
Director: Dan Gilroy
Producers: Jennifer Fox, Tony Gilroy, Jake Gyllenhaal, David Lancaster, Michel Litvak
“Obvious Child”
Director: Gillian Robespierre
Producer: Elisabeth Holm
“She’s Lost Control”
Director-producer: Anja Marquardt
Producers: Mollye Asher, Kiara C. Jones

FIRST SCREENPLAY
Desiree Akhavan
“Appropriate Behavior”
Sara Colangelo
“Little Accidents”
Justin Lader
“The One I Love”
Anja Marquardt
“She’s Lost Control”
Justin Simien
“Dear White People”

JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD – Given to the best feature made for under $500,000. Award given to the writer, director and producer. Executive producers are not awarded.
“Blue Ruin”
Writer-director: Jeremy Saulnier
Producers: Richard Peete, Vincent Savino, Anish Savjani
“It Felt Like Love”
Writer-director-producer: Eliza Hittman
Producers: Shrihari Sathe, Laura Wagner
“Land Ho!”
Writers-directors: Aaron Katz & Martha Stephens
Producers: Christina Jennings, Mynette Louie, Sara Murphy
“Man From Reno”
Writer-director: Dave Boyle
Writers: Joel Clark, Michael Lerman
Producer: Ko Mori
“Test”
Writer-director-producer: Chris Mason Johnson
Producer: Chris Martin

FEMALE LEAD
Marion Cotillard
“The Immigrant”
Rinko Kikuchi
“Kumiko, the Treasure Hunter”
Julianne Moore
“Still Alice”
Jenny Slate
“Obvious Child”
Tilda Swinton
“Only Lovers Left Alive”

MALE LEAD
André Benjamin
“Jimi: All Is by My Side”
Jake Gyllenhaal
“Nightcrawler”
Michael Keaton
“Birdman (or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
John Lithgow
“Love Is Strange”
David Oyelowo
“Selma”

SUPPORTING FEMALE
Patricia Arquette
“Boyhood”
CIO, CTO & Developer Resources
Jessica Chastain
“A Most Violent Year”
Carmen Ejogo
“Selma”
Andrea Suarez Paz
“Stand Clear of the Closing Doors”
Emma Stone
“Birdman (or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”

SUPPORTING MALE
Riz Ahmed
“Nightcrawler”
Ethan Hawke
Boyhood
Alfred Molina
“Love Is Strange”
Edward Norton
“Birdman (or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
J.K. Simmons
Whiplash

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Darius Khondji
“The Immigrant”
Emmanuel Lubezki
“Birdman (or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Sean Porter
“It Felt Like Love”
Lyle Vincent
“A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night”
Bradford Young
“Selma”

EDITING
Sandra Adair
“Boyhood”
Tom Cross
“Whiplash”
John Gilroy
“Nightcrawler”
Ron Patane
“A Most Violent Year”
Adam Wingard
“The Guest”

DOCUMENTARY (Award given to the director and producer)
“20,000 Days on Earth”
Directors: Iain Forsyth & Jane Pollard
Producers: Dan Bowen, James Wilson
“CitizenFour”
Director-producer: Laura Poitras
Producers: Mathilde Bonnefoy, Dirk Wilutzky
“Stray Dog”
Director: Debra Granik
Producer: Anne Rosellini
“The Salt of the Earth”
Directors: Juliano Ribeiro Salgado and Wim Wenders
Producer: David Rosier
“Virunga”
Director-producer: Orlando von Einsiedel
Producer: Joanna Natasegara

INTERNATIONAL FILM (Award given to the director)
“Force Majeure”
(Sweden)
Director: Ruben Östlund
“Ida”
(Poland)
Director: Pawel Pawlikowski
“Leviathan
(Russia)
Director: Andrey Zvyagintsev
Mommy
(Canada)
Director: Xavier Dolan
Norte, the End of History
(Philippines)
Director: Lav Diaz
Under the Skin
(United Kingdom)
Director: Jonathan Glazer

ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD – (Given to one film’s director, casting director and ensemble cast)
Inherent Vice
Director: Paul Thomas Anderson
Casting Director: Cassandra Kulukundis
Ensemble Cast: Josh Brolin, Martin Donovan, Jena Malone, Joanna Newsom, Joaquin Phoenix, Eric Roberts, Maya Rudolph, Martin Short Serena Scott Thomas, Benicio Del Toro, Katherine Waterston, Michael Kenneth Williams, Owen Wilson, Reese Witherspoon

SPECIAL DISTINCTION AWARD
Foxcatcher
Director/Producer: Bennett Miller
Producers: Anthony Bregman, Megan Ellison, Jon Kilik
Writers: E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman
Actors: Steve Carell, Mark Ruffalo, Channing Tatum

18th ANNUAL PIAGET PRODUCERS AWARD – The 18th annual Producers Award, sponsored by Piaget, honors emerging producers who, despite highly limited resources, demonstrate the creativity, tenacity and vision required to produce quality, independent films. The award includes a $25,000 unrestricted grant funded by Piaget.
Chad Burris
Elisabeth Holm
Chris Ohlson

21st ANNUAL KIEHL’S SOMEONE TO WATCH AWARD – The 21st annual Someone to Watch Award, sponsored by Kiehl’s Since 1851, recognizes a talented filmmaker of singular vision who has not yet received appropriate recognition. The award includes a $25,000 unrestricted grant funded by Kiehl’s Since 1851.
A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night
Director: Ana Lily Amirpour
H.
Directors: Rania Attieh & Daniel Garcia
The Retrieval
Director: Chris Eska

20th ANNUAL LENSCRAFTERS TRUER THAN FICTION AWARD – The 20th annual Truer Than Fiction Award, sponsored by LensCrafters is presented to an emerging director of non-fiction features who has not yet received significant recognition. The award includes a $25,000 unrestricted grant funded by LensCrafters.
Approaching the Elephant
Director: Amanda Rose Wilder
Evolution of a Criminal
Director: Darius Clark Monroe
The Kill Team
Director: Dan Krauss
The Last Season
Director: Sara Dosa

A big day for TFF #41 film "Birdman" which led all films with six nominations.  The Hollywood Reporter breaks down the nominations here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/independent-spirit-awards-good-news-752291

PREDICTIONS FOR NBR, AFI AND NYFCC

Awards Daily's Sasha Stone takes a look at the first wave of year-end superlatives list of films from The National Board of Review, American Film Institute and the New York Film Critics that will be announced in the next few days and makes some predictions about what we might see when those are announced:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2014/11/predicting-afi-producers-guild

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2014/11/predicting-new-york-film-critics-national-board-of-review-and-los-angeles-film-critics/

GURUS OF GOLD

Here's the latest update from The Movie City News Gurus of Gold  predictions for Best Picture:

http://moviecitynews.com/2014/11/gurus-o-gold-thanksgiving-week/

Have a great weekend everyone...more on Monday!