MTFB Oscar Update: Predicting Oscar Winners: Cinematography and More / Future TFF Selection? / Interviews and Profiles: Conclave

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PREDICTING OSCAR WINNERS: CINEMATOGRAPHY AND MORE

As the Emilia Perez series of provocations and scandals seems to be winding down in intensity, we're starting to see some actual effects regarding what could happen on Oscar night.  Here are the first predictions for winners in Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Score and Song.  As usual, TFF films are in Bold.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Brutalist

2) Dune: Part Two

3) Nosferatu

4) Maria

5) Emilia Perez

BEST EDITING

1) Conclave

2) Anora

3) The Brutalist

4) Emilia Perez

5) Wicked

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Wicked

2) The Brutalist

3) Dune: Part Two

4) Conclave

5) Nosferatu

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Brutalist

2) Conclave

3) The Wild Robot

4) Emilia Perez

5) Wicked

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) El Mal/Emilia Perez

2) The Journey/The Six Triple Eight

3) Mi Camino/Emilia Perez

4) Like A Bird/Sing Sing

5) Never Too Late/Never Too Late

Comments:  Tightest category among these five is Editing where Conclave is barely in front of Anora and The Brutalist is close too.  If Conclave wins this and Adapted Screenplay...well...could be a good night in the end for Conclave.

The Emilia Perez blowback does not seem to have been particularly bad in Best Song.  We'll see if that's still true two weeks from now when we re-visit these five categories.  Diane Warren's shot to finally win an Oscar for songwriting has a real possibility of happening.

Speaking of low blowback for Emilia Perez in Best Song, you have to wonder if Zoe Saldana might still have a chance for Best Supporting Actress.  We'll look at that category again next week.

FUTURE TFF SELECTION?

Of note yesterday was news from both Deadline and The Film Stage that TFF regular and member of TFF's Council of Advisors Werner Herzog will be soon filming a new feature film.  That by itself would be enough to merit it going on a future TFF watch list.  But the reporting revealed that the film will star Rooney Mara and Kate Mara.

Rooney is past TFF tribute recipient.  She was honored in 2015.  Todd Haynes Carol screened at TFF as a part of that tribute.  I have been told that Rooney loves the fest and has returned since the 2015 honor.

She attended in 2016 with Una and again in  2022 with Women Talking.

The new film is reportedly titled Bucking Fastard and is described by The Film Stage as: 

"...based on the true story of inseparable twin sisters Joan and Jean, drawing from the lives of Freda and Greta Chaplin, who became sexually infatuated with their next-door neighbor and eventually received a restraining order. The title of the film, which begins production this spring in Ireland and Slovenia, is based on a simultaneous verbal slip the twins made in court."

The Film Stage article (Linked above) also digs into Herzog's most recent book, Every Man for Himself and God Against All: A Memoir, and provides considerable detail about the two sisters.

INETRVIEWS AND PROFILES

Conclave producers Ross and Howell for the film from Variety.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

Ten Bets #5 / Toronto Films-An Evolving List / Next Best Picture Guesses Telluride / Women Talking Where?

 TEN BETS #5

Here's your weekly look at my take on films that I think are the TFF #49 choices. First, a refresher for last week's Ten Bets plus other possibilities:

1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

2) The Son/Zeller

3) Close/Dhont

4) Women Talking/Polley

5) Aftersun/Wells

6) Bardo/Inarritu

7) TAR/Fields

8) Armageddon Time/Gray

9) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper

10) The Master Gardener/P. Schrader

Others Possibilities: Broker/Kore-eda, Showing Up/Reichardt, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, Holy Spider/Abbasi,  The Forger/Peren, Babylon/Chazelle, She Said/M. Schrader, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, The Wonder/Lelio

And here are your latest Ten Bets:

 

1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

2) The Son/Zeller

3) Close/Dhont

4) Armageddon Time/Gray

5) Bardo/Inarritu

6) TAR/Fields

7) Women Talking/Polley

8) Aftersun/Wells

9) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper

10) The Master Gardener/P. Schrader

Others Possibilities: Broker/Kore-eda, Showing Up/Reichardt, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, Holy Spider/Abbasi,  The Forger/Peren, She Said/M. Schrader, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, The Wonder/Lelio, Blonde/Dominik.

Notes: Armageddon Time moves up as do Bardo and TAR.  Women Talking  drops a bit based on a World of Reel story you will find below.

I've moved Babylon off the list of possibilities for the time being though it could slide back on.  I've put Andrew Dominik's Blonde back on based on persistent buzz that the film will screen at Venice.

TORONTO FILMS - AN EVOLVING LIST

TIFF is using a drip-drip-drip method of announcing World Premieres that they haven't used before.  As that list grows, I will be posting so we know which films are at TIFF and won't be at TFF#49. Those announced to date are:

Green Onions: A Knives Out Mystery

Brother

Bros

On the Come Up

The Woman King

My Policeman

and Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel says The Greatest Beer Run Ever will also be a TIFF World Premiere.

NEXT BEST PICTURE GUESSES TELLURIDE (and Venice and Toronto)

Following their weekly podcast that focused on the Big Three fall film fests. Matt Neglia and the Next Best Picture crew posted a written version of their guesses nd predictions for what films are going where.  Here that is with films that I have on the Ten Bets list and/or as possibilities indicates with ***

TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL

Aftersun (Dir. Charlotte Wells)***

​Armageddon Time (Dir. James Gray)***

Bardo (Dir. Alejandro González Iñárritu)***

Broker (Dir. Hirokazu Kore-eda)***

Close (Dir. Lukas Dhont)***

Decision To Leave (Dir. Park Chan-wook)

EO (Dir. Jerzy Skolimowski)

Holy Spider (Dir. Ali Abbasi)***

The Master Gardener (Dir. Paul Schrader)***

One Fine Morning (Dir. Mia Hansen-Løve)***

​The Pale Blue Eye (Dir. Scott Cooper) - WORLD PREMIERE***

See How They Run (Dir. Tom George) - WORLD PREMIERE

She Said (Dir. Maria Schrader) - WORLD PREMIERE***

Showing Up (Dir. Kelly Reichardt)***

The Son (Dir. Florian Zeller) - WORLD PREMIERE***

Tár (Dir. Todd Field)***

Tori and Lokita (Dir. The Dardenne Brothers)***

Triangle Of Sadness (Dir. Ruben Östlund)

The Whale (Dir. Darren Aronofsky)

​Women Talking (Dir. Sarah Polley) - WORLD PREMIERE***

As you can see, there is extensive overlap between the NBP list and my Ten Bets.  NBP has five films listed that I don't and any of the five wouldn't be a real shocker if included: Decision to Leave, EO, See How They Run, Triangle of Sadness or The Whale.

Here's what Matt and the NBP folks have as Venice premieres that would jump the Atlantic to play at TFF a couple of days later:

Bardo, The Master Gardener, TAR and The Whale.  Another note...NBP has Andrew Dominik's Blonde playing both Venice and Toronto but not T-ride.  So...to anyone with any juice at Netflix or within the programmers at TFF...hear my plea that Blonde makes a stop in Colorado between the two.

Here is the complete NBP post.

WOMEN TALKING WHERE?

Another Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel post of interest this week was the buzz about which fall fest was going to land Sarah Polley's Women Talking as a World Premiere.  I have felt relatively confident that it would play Telluride as Polley has made the trip to the San Juans previously but who knows?

Ruimy suggests that Toronto wants it very badly as a WP and should Polley and distributor United Artists/Orion go that way...no TFF #49.  If Venice lands it, TFF #49 remains a possibility.  Of course Polley's last feature length film, the doc Stories We Tell, did the Venice/Telluride dance in 2012 but the distributor there was Roadside Attractions.

Stay tuned.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

The Distributors: The Weinstein Company / Annecy Audiences Loved Loving Vincent / Awards Circuit Takes a Stab

Welcome back from the weekend.  Hope all fathers had a nice day yesterday.


THE DISTRIBUTORS: THE WEINSTEIN COMPANY

After having at least one film play at Telluride each year that I have been attending (since 2006) last year was the first in which there was no film on the playlist from The Weinstein Company.  One might have thought (and I did for awhile) that The Founder or Lion might have played but that did not happen.

Here's the recent history of TWC (and before that, Miramax) from 2006 to the present:

2015: Carol
2014: The Imitation Game, Escobar: Paradise Lost, Keep On Keepin'On
2013: The Unknown, Salinger, Tracks
2012: The Sapphires
2011: The Artist, Butter
2010: The King's Speech
2009: The Road
2008: Happy-Go-Lucky
2007: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, My Enemy's Enemy, I'm Not There
2006: Venus, Indigenes

So the question becomes, "Will TWC return to TFF and if so, with what films?"

As I write this on Monday morning, TWC really seems to have on;y two films that are dated appropriately and with enough buzz to be serious Telluride (and for that matter, Venice, Toronto, New York, London) consideration.

The Current War and Mary Magdalene.  Let's breakdown each in terms of its TFF possibility.

The Current War stars Benedict Cumberbatch and Michael Shannon as Thomas Edison and George Westinghouse respectively and focuses on the battle between them to determine which form of electricity, Alternating Current or Direct Current, would dominate American electrical delivery.

The film is directed by Alonso Gomez-Rejon who has worked in the past for Alejandro Inarritu, Martin Scorsese and Ben Affleck.  Gomez-Rejon was a second unit director for Argo and for Babel.

I have heard via a back channel some scuttlebutt from a screening of the film that was less than stellar but, this far out, I don't think that necessarily removes The Current War from the TFF discussion.

Mary Magdalene stars Rooney Mara as Mary and Joaquin Phoenix as Jesus in a film that tells the story of the female follower of Christ.  Garth Davis (Lion) directs.  Additionally, one of the film's producers is Iain Canning who also produced The King's Speech, Shame and Hunger; all of which played Telluride.

My feeling is that it's more likely than not that TWC returns to Telluride in 2017 with one film (as you might note, the average for TWC is 1.6 films per year).  

My guesstimate at the moment is that The Current War has a slightly better chance than Mary Magdalene but that advantage is minuscule.

Chances: The Current War 51%, Mary Magdalene 49%.

Tomorrow, a look at Fox Searchlight.

ANNECY AUDIENCES LOVED LOVING VINCENT

The Annecy International Animated Film Festival concluded at the end of this past week with awards going primarily to Japanese film makers but the audience award went to Loving Vincent which I highlighted here last week.

The film likely gets a boost from the win both for Oscar consideration as well as for a Telluride play.

Check here for Variety's complete report about the awards at the conclusion of the festival.

AWARDS CIRCUIT TAKES A STAB

Clayton Davis' Circuitbreaker podcast from Awards Circuit was up this past weekend with a number of topics covered in the 1:20 long program.  The last 20 minutes or so beginning at the 55:35 mark starts as a discussion about the selection of Richard Linklater's Last Flag Flying as the opening night film for the New York Film Festival.  That leads to a far ranging discussion about where Davis and his crew think a lot of films will land at fall festivals including Telluride.  Those four titles are electrifying,

The four films that are named as Telluride plays (in order that they're mentioned in the podcast) are:

Woody Allen's Wonder Wheel

Alexander Payne's Downsizing

Denis Villeneuve's Blade Runner 2049

Martin McDonagh's Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

The inclusion of Downsizing isn't a surprise but Wonder Wheel, Three Billboards and Blade Runner 2049 would all be surprises.

The complete Circuitbreaker podcast can be found here.

That's a wrap for this Monday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT to the BLOG

Screen Actors Guild Awards: Another Oscar Re-shuffle? / Rooney Mara Talks Carol / Feinberg's Latest Forecast

Good Monday and welcome to February!  We're down to less than four weeks in this Oscar season and the Best Picture race took another turn over the weekend...


SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS: ANOTHER OSCAR RE-SHUFFLE?

The Screen Actors Guild Awards were handed out late Saturday night for both film and television work.  Tom McCarthy's Spotlight won the Best Ensemble Award besting The Big Short and possibly indicating a continuing tight battle for the Best Picture Oscar.  The Big Short was perceived by many Oscar experts as having pulled into a slight lead owing to its Producers Guild Award from last weekend.  A SAG win last for ensemble would have likely strengthened that view but the win for Spotlight has caused some re-evaluation yet again.

Add to all of this that the Directors Guild announces their award this coming weekend and it could very easily award neither McCarthy or The Big Short's Adam McKay.  Plausible cases can be made that any of the other DGA nominees might pick up the trophy: Inarritu/The Reverent, Miller/Mad Max: Fury Road or Scott/The Martian.  So, the DGA could provide a sign of clarity if either McKay or McCarthy should win, or confusion should any of those other three take the award.  Perhaps a Miller or Inarittu win get their films back near the top on the Best Picture speculation.  It'll be fun reading those tea leaves next Monday.

Meanwhile, in addition to Spotlight, other TFF #42 alumni picked up SAG Awards Saturday night as Brie Larson won Best Actress for Room and Idris Elba won Best Supporting Actor for Beasts of No Nation.

Non-TFF #42 winners were Leonardo DiCaprio for Best Actor for The Revenant and Alicia Vikander for Supporting Actress for The Danish Girl.  Mad Max:Fury Road picked up the award for Stunt Ensemble as it should have.

Honestly, for what's its worth, I still semi-believe Spotlight is going to win Best Picture on Oscar night.

I have linked complete coverage and analysis of The SAG results here from The Hollywood Reporter, The Film Stage, The Playlist and Deadline:


http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/sag-awards-spotlight-victory-confirms-860909

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/2016-sag-winners-complete-list-856945/item/outstanding-performance-by-a-female-846007

http://thefilmstage.com/news/spotlight-leonardo-dicaprio-and-brie-larson-lead-2016-sag-award-winners/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/sag-award-winners-spotlight-wins-best-ensemble-leonardo-dicaprio-idris-elba-brie-larson-are-also-winners-20160130

http://deadline.com/2016/01/sag-awards-analysis-a-big-night-for-netflix-diversity-repeat-winners-and-oscar-front-runners-hammond-1201693646/



ROONEY MARA TALKS CAROL

Best Supporting Actress nominee Rooney Mara talks about Carol in this half hour YouTube video proffered by The Weinstein Company last week.  Enjoy!

Rooney Mara on Carol via YouTube

FEINBERG'S LATEST FORECAST

The Hollywood Reporter's Oscar expert, Scott Feinberg posted his latest Oscar prognostications late last week and they came prior to Saturday night's SAG results.

Feinberg's analysis suggests that TFF #42 films are positioned thusly:

Best Pic: Spotlight trailing The Big Short and Room is in his #5 spot.

Director: McCarthy/Spotlight is #4 and Abrahamson/Room is #5

Actor: Fassbender/Steve Jobs is #5

Actress: Larson/Room at #1 and Rampling/45 Years at #3 and Blanchett/Carol at #4

Supporting Actor: Ruffalo/Spotlight at #2

Supporting Actress: Mara/Carol #3, McAdams/Spotlight at #4 and Winslet/Steve Jobs at #5

Adapted Screenplay: Room at #3, Carol at #5

Original Screenplay: Spotlight at #1

Animated Feature: Anomalisa is at #2
Documentary Feature: The Look of Silence is #4 and Winter on Fire is at #5
Foreign Language Film: Son of Saul at #1
Cinematography: Carol at #4
Costumes: Carol at #1
Film Editing: Spotlight at #5
Original Score: Carol at #4


If Scott is right TFF #42 films pick up four Oscars on Feb. 28.


Come back for more on Thursday!

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

"Son of Saul" and "Our Little Sister and SPC/More from "Carol"/Early Palme Contenders/"Hologram" Has Distribution

"SON OF SAUL", "OUR LITTLE SISTER" AND SPC

"Son of Saul"

Sony Pictures Classics has acquired two Palme competition titles in the Cannes early-going.  SPC has snagged "Our Little Sister" and critical favorite "Son of Saul".  SPC entered Cannes with a relatively thin stable of films but these acquisitions instantly become fodder for Telluride speculation.

"Our Little Sister"

Going into the French fest, SPC only had a couple of titles that seemed possible for Telluride: "Elser" and the Han Williams biopic "I Saw the Light".  Most of the rest of their slate heading into Cannes was either launched at Sundance or has a pre-Telluride release date.

SPC is usually the largest distribution presence at the Telluride Film Festival.  SPC has averaged 4.8 films at Telluride over the last dozen years.  They had seven last year so you have to imagine that every acquisition announcement puts that film right in the middle of the Telluride conversation.

Here's the news about "Son of Saul" and "Our Little Sister" from Cannes:


http://www.indiewire.com/article/cannes-sony-pictures-classics-acquires-palme-dor-contender-son-of-saul-20150517

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/cannes-sony-pictures-classics-acquires-our-little-sister-exclusive-1201495789/


http://www.indiewire.com/article/cannes-sony-pictures-classics-acquires-hirokazu-kore-edas-our-little-sister-20150514


http://www.thewrap.com/cannes-sony-classics-buys-competition-title-our-little-sister/




MORE FROM "CAROL"

Mara and Blanchett from "Carol"

Todd Haynes "Carol" has been rapturously received in Cannes.  The film stars Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara.  Even the most cursory glance at reactions coming out of France seems overwhelming. I have linked an overview of responses from The Playlist plus a link to an Awards Daily post that includes a lengthy "Carol" clip:


http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/todd-haynes-is-working-on-a-limited-tv-series-about-70s-source-family-cult-plus-first-cannes-reactions-from-carol-20150516


http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/05/watch-3-minutes-of-todd-haynes-carol-with-cate-blanchett-and-rooney-mara/

Does this kind of response mean "Carol" is a cinch for Telluride?  Ummm....nope.  "Carol" is represented for U.S. distribution by The Weinstein Company.  TWC is usually at Telluride in some capacity.  Last year included "The Imitation Game" and, under their Radius-TWC banner, "Escobar: Paradise Lost".  The year before it was "Tracks","Salinger" and "Keep on Keepin' On" and "The Unknown Known" (again as Radius).  Over the past nine years TWC or its Radius arm have been in Telluride with 15 films.  Last year was the first time in that nine year that the TWC umbrella had four films in town.

The Weinstein playbook for Telluride seems to usually include one high profile project (Imitation, Artist, King's Speech) and then one or more "lesser" lights and that break any number of ways especially since TWC has "The Hateful Eight" floating around in the late 2015 release schedule.  So, though "Carol" seems like a very real Telluride possibility, I wouldn't bet the farm on it just yet.



EARLY PALME CONTENDERS

Through the first third of the Cannes Film Fest there are two solid critical favorites: "Carol" and "Son of Saul" and one film that has been strafed which is Gus Van Sant's "The Sea of Trees":  Check these links to the latest critic composites from around the world:

http://www.screendaily.com/festivals/cannes/cannes-carol-rockets-to-screen-jury-lead/5088308.article?blocktitle=CANNES-JURY-GRID&contentID=43755

http://www.ioncinema.com/news/film-festivals/2015-cannes-critics-panel-day-4-rousing-tender-homo-geneous-response-to-haynes-carol

http://cannes-rurban.rhcloud.com/2015

http://www.todaslascriticas.com.ar/cannes



'HOLOGRAM" HAS DISTRIBUTION...

Tom Hanks in "A Hologram for the King"

Tom Tykwer's "A Hologram for the King" which stars Tom Hanks and is based on a Dave Eggers novel has been picked up for U.S. distribution at Cannes by Roadside Attractions/Saban/Lionsgate. The Eggers connection, his presence as a Telluride fixture the last few years combined with Roadside's increased profile at TFF the past couple of years (combined with the above reported critical dogpile on Roadside's other big Cannes acquisition this week: Gus Van Sant's "The Sea of Trees") moves "Hologram" onto the T-ride #42 watch list in a semi-serious way.

The link to the acquisition story is here:

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/tom-hanks-hologram-for-the-king-sold-lionsgate-1201498513/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/cannes-lionsgate-roadside-saban-take-796200


More to come on Thursday....