Telluride and Oscar Part Seven: Best Adapted Screenplay / London Opening Film In Play? / A Couple of Tidbits: Uncut Gems and Just Mercy / Late Breaking: Venice Opener

Hi there...I'm on the road...headed to Oregon...



TELLURIDE AND OSCAR PART SEVEN: BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Here's Part Seven of the eight part series concerning the films of the Telluride Film Festival and the Academy Awards covering the last 14 years (that starts with 2015 which was the year before I began attending).  Today's category of concentration is Best Adapted Screenplay.  Listed below are all of the films nominated in that category since 2005 that played Telluride.  Winners are indicated with ***.

2005: Brokeback Mountain***, Capote
2006: Little Children
2007: There Will Be Blood (I count it as we saw footage in connection with the Daniel Day-Lewis tribute), The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
2008: Slumdog Millionaire***, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Same as There Will Be Blood only with a tribute to David Fincher)
2009: An Education, Up in the Air
2010: 127 Hours
2011: The Descendants***
2012: Argo***
2013: 12 Years a Slave***
2014: The Imitation Game***
2015: Carol, Room
2016: Moonlight***, Arrival
2017: No nominees
2018: Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Notes 19 nominations over the 14 years with a strong seven wins in that time period.

As best as can tell the first film from TFF with a nomination for Best adapted Screenplay was My Left Foot in 1989.

As a percentage of  wins to nominations this is the category that having a nomination from a TFF film gives the nominee the best chance of a win with 36.8% of TFF nominees winning the honor.  The next best category is Best Director with a 32.2% win ratio.  The worst: Best Supporting Actress with a 3.8% win ratio.


Next Tuesday...the last of the "Big Eight" categories: Best Original Screenplay.


LONDON OPENING FILM IN PLAY?

The BFI/London Film Festival announced its opening film will be Armando Ianucci's (Into the Loop, Veep) The Personal History of David Copperfield.  Why should we take note?  The film was announced as a European Premiere.  That means that the film will have screened at at least one other spot prior to its stint as the LFF opening film.

The European designation should mean that Venice is off the list as a possibility leaving Toronto, New York (barely as NYFF opens Sept. 28th while London will screen it on Oct. 2.

The European designation means the first screening in Europe will be at LFF.  It necessarily means that the "World" premiere happens somewhere else...and...as LFF doesn't label it an "International" premiere...that suggests that the film will have played within the country of its origin.

What I'm saying here is that divining this news in terms of a potential Telluride play comes down to how the film's country of origin in classified.  If it's a "U.S." production then this could mean that the film plays at Telluride.  If it's a Brit production... could mean a Toronto World Premiere.

And I am uncertain as to the film's nationality.

But...this could be in Telluride.

Here's the Deadline story about the London Film Fest opening night announcement.



COUPLE OF TIDBITS


Jeff Sneider of TheInSneider fame Tweeted this yesterday:

Sneider, who has been knocking about the movie biz for a good long time including writing for Variety, Ain't It Cool News and The Wrap is clearly suggesting that the Safdie Brothers Uncut Gems starring Adam Sandler is on the TFF #46 agenda.

The film is an A24 project and I did not assess it when I looked at A24's offerings back on July 1st.  At that time, I felt like A24's most probable film to play TFF was The Lighthouse.  That said, I believe that it's entirely possible that Uncut Gems could make it to Colorado.  Perhaps both films will.

In another tidbit, Just Mercy from director Destin Daniel Cretton (Short Term 12) which had been announced with a release date in January 2020 now seems like it will be released on Dec. 25th according to The Hollywood Reporter.  That puts it into awards season play for Warner Brothers and suggests that it could pop up at one or more fall film fests.  The WB appears to be loaded with this as well as Joker, Motherless Brooklyn and The Goldfinch.

The film stars Michael B. Jordan, Brie Larson and Jamie Foxx and tells the  true story of an African American man accused of a murder he didn't commit.

LATE BREAKING: VENICE OPENER

The Venice Film Festival has chosen Hirokazu Kore-eda's The Truth as its opening film.  That probably raises the chances that it will play Telluride.  More tomorrow.

That'll do it for this Thursday...More to come tomorrow including the last Ten Bets before Toronto and Venice begin announcing.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Cannes Adds Classics and Docs About Films / Some Films Are Off the Telluride Table / Re-visiting the 29th Telluride Film Festival 2002

It's Monday...welcome back...



CANNES ADDS CLASSICS AND DOCS ABOUT FILM

The 70th Cannes Film Fest seems to have finished all of their lineup announcements this past week with the addition of classic films and documentaries.  In as far as Telluride is concerned, the documentaries likely provide more ground for potential TFF programming.  Two jumped out at me as interesting and, perhaps, TFF possibilities:  Filmworker focuses on the story of an assistant for Stanley Kubrick and Becoming Cary Grant takes a look at the life of the icon with a focus on his use of LSD.

Though you wouldn't expect to see them at Telluride, I was struck of the inclusion of Blow Up, A River Runs Through It, All That Jazz and Belle du Jour among the classics selections

The Film Stage lays out the details here.


SOME FILMS ARE OFF THE TELLURIDE TABLE

Brie Larson in The Glass Castle (via Collider)

A couple of films that I have been keeping my eye on as potential TFF #44 titles went by the wayside this week as they were dated for release in windows that make TFF #44 either impossible or extremely unlikely;  Jason Reitman's newest collaboration with Diablo Cody is headed for release in April of 2018.  Tully has been on my radar simply because it's from the creators behind 2007's Juno. Reitman has had significant run through Telluride over the past decade with Juno (07), Up in the Air (09) and Labor Day (13) but his Young Adult (11) and Men Women and Children (14) did not play the fest.

Details including a suggestion that Tully might play Toronto (and the dating of the new Paul Thomas Anderson film) can be found in this post from The Playlist.

Meanwhile, Destin Daniel Cretton's The Glass Castle starring Brie Larson has been announced for Aug. 11th , making it out of play for T-ride.  It's been on my list as the twosome of Cretton and Larson were paired in the critical success Short Term 12 in 2013 and also as a result of Larson's Best Actress win for 2015's Room.

Reports of the dating for release are here from Variety and here from The Wrap.


RE-VISITING THE 29TH TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL 2002

In an effort to provide a history of the Telluride Film Festival I continue to use the wayback machine and take a look back at past Telluride Film Festivals.  Utilizing past programs, yearbooks and conversations with past attendees, I have undertaken to supplement the History section of the TFF official website.  The website includes links to TFF programs dating from last year's fest back to the 33rd TFF in 2006.

Beginning a few weeks past with TFF 32, MTFB is attempting to fill in the gaps back to the beginning.  In addition to supplementing the official website, it is my intent that this stroll down memory lane will eventually take the place of the "Selected TFF History" page here at MTFB.  Obviously, it is not going to be a rapid process...that said...

The 29th Telluride Film Festival took place form Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 2002.

Guest Director: Alberto Barbera
Tributes: Peter O'Toole, Paul Schrader, D.A. Pennebaker

Here are the feature films that were a part of The SHOW:

Antychryst
Auto Focus
Bandits of Orgosolo
Bitter Rice
The Black Pirate
Blind Spot
Bowling for Columbine
Cinerama Adventure
City of God
Cuckoo
Frida
Ikiru
Il Posto
Irreversible
Jeffrey Bernard is Unwell
Ken Park
Le Corbeau
Lost in La Mancha
The Man Without a Past
Max et les Frerailleuers
Morvern Callar
My Mother's Smile
Naqoyqatsi
Night Mail II
Old Believers
Only the Strong Survive
Rabbit Proof Fence
Respiro
Russian Ark
Safe Passage
Scarecrow
See What Happens: The Story of D.A. Pennebaker and Chris Hegedus
Singin' in the Rain
Spider
Spirited Away
Talk to Her
The Tramp and the Dictator
The War
Willie Nelson: Still is Still Moving
The Wonderful Lies of Nina Petrowna

Partial List of Guests:

Ken Burns
Betty Comden
David Cronenberg
Willem Dafoe
Roger Ebert
Ralph Fiennes
Thierry Fremaux
Terry Gilliam
Philip Glass
Werner Herzog
Christopher Hitchens
Mary-Beth Hurt
Greg Kinnear
Ed Lachman
Leonard Maltin
Fernando Meirelles
Michael Moore
Gaspar Noe
Peter O'Toole
D.A. Pennebaker
Lynne Ramsay
Salman Rushdie
Paul Schrader
Jerry Schatzberg
Peter Sellars


Among the short films you'd find that Australian actress Rachel Griffiths (Blow, Saving Mr. Banks, Hacksaw Ridge) as the director of Roundabout.

That'll do it for this Monday.  I'll have more on Thursday...

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Re-Visiting Films from Warner Brothers / Free Fire to Close London / FFC's Distant Vision

Good Tuesday friends...

RE-VISITING FILMS FROM WARNER BROTHERS

I've written it a number of times, Warner Brothers has become a strong presence at Telluride over the past four years.  Beginning with the Oscar winning run for Ben Affleck's Argo in 2012.  They followed that in 2013 with Gravity (another Oscar heavy hitter) and Prisoners.  They weren't in T-ride in 2014 but returned last year with Black Mass.

Last week in his overview of Oscar in relation to the first wave of Toronto announcements and the Venice announcements, Variety's Kristopher Tapley wrote this:


"Getting back to Telluride, which sold out passes in record time this year, Warner Bros. has leveraged the fest in the past with films like “Argo,” “Gravity” and “Black Mass.” This year the studio has Gavin O’Connor’s “The Accountant” slated for the same early-October release granted to “Argo” and “Gravity”; Clint Eastwood’s “Sully” primed for release immediately after the festival concludes; and Ben Affleck’s “Live By Night” on the backstretch with an expected December qualifying run. Certainly they’ll come with something."

It's that last sentence that stands out.  He seems confident that WB will be back to Telluride this year. Problem is that none of the bog three WB possibilities seems like a strong candidate though there could be an under the radar player or two.

The Accountant stars Ben Affleck and is set to open Oct. 14. That's the right date but almost no one seems to think it's a Telluride-type film.

The Tapley post is here in its entirety:

http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/oscar-contenders-venice-telluride-toronto-film-festivals-1201825632/

The Accountant's second official trailer via YouTube

Sully stars Tom Hanks and is set to open almost immediately after TFF is over-Sept. 9.  That's essentially the same lead time that they took last year with Black Mass (9/18).   Director Clint Eastwood has been to Telluride before.  But, again, there are issues.  It's a really short time between T-ride and the open, Eastwood has lately avoided fall fests and last week Venice artistic director Alberto Barbera revealed in an interview with Screen Daily that:

"I’m sorry Warner Bros is missing this year because they have been our most dependable partner in recent years. I tried to get Sully, but it was simply not convenient for them as Clint Eastwood wouldn’t be coming and Tom Hanks would’ve been too busy promoting Inferno. That is my biggest and only regret this year."

So that doesn't bode well.

The Barbera interview is here:

http://www.screendaily.com/festivals/venice/venice-alberto-barbera-reveals-line-up-gems-regrets-and-this-years-big-oscar-contender/5107112.article

Finally, there's Ben Affleck's other WB film, the one he's directing.  The adaptation of Dennis Lehane's Live by Night.  The film may be positioned for awards consideration.  The reason we think that is that WB moved off of its original release to Jan. 13th.  Many are thinking that WB may well try to get the film a qualifying run in December.

I've heard that it's being test screened which would suggest that there is some nearly complete version but all of that is also pretty murky to hang your hat on for a guess at a Telluride berth.

Then there are a couple of wild cards.  One is a highly anticipated big name film: Collateral Beauty starring Will Smith and Kate Winslet.  It's directed by David Frankel and has a Dec. 16th release date.

The other is a smaller film that nonetheless has gained some pre-awards notice.  The Yellow Birds stars maybe the hottest young actor on the planet right now, Alden Ehrenreich and there is some awards buzz for his co-star Jennifer Aniston.  The Yellow Birds does not have an announced release date and IMDb seems to be torn as to whether it could appear in 2016 or 2017.  IMDb lists both films as being in post production with the last update for Collateral Beauty listed as April 22 and for The Yellow Birds it's Jan. 30.

Maybe one of these films shows up in September.



FREE FIRE TO CLOSE LONDON

Brie Larson in Free Fire (The Playlist)

We found out yesterday that Ben Wheatley's Free Fire would close the London/BFI Fest on Pct. 16.  The film was announced as an European premiere.  I haven't been thinking seriously about the Wheatley film as a Telluride candidate but the European Preem designation got me to thinking...could it be T-ride bound?

The film's first screening must already be scheduled somewhere besides Europe and that points to one of three fests: Telluride, Toronto and/or New York.  It could play one of those fests or any combination of them.

The greatest chance is a spot in the as yet unannounced field of the still 200+ titles that TIFF has yet to announce.  They're set to announce another batch tomorrow although it is my belief that they will focus on Canadian films then.

Of course, the film is distributed from A24 and stars Brie Larson which matches the same characteristics as a film from last year that you may recall: Room.

I'm still expecting A24 to have a presence at Telluride with Barry Jenkins Moonlight but the presence of Larson and Telluride can't be ruled out (at least yet) because of the success that Room experienced last year.


Coverage of the London announcement is here:

http://variety.com/2016/film/global/ben-wheatley-free-fire-brie-larson-close-bfi-london-film-festival-1201827442/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/brie-larson-starrer-free-fire-916072

http://theplaylist.net/ben-wheatleys-action-thriller-free-fire-close-bfi-london-film-festival-20160801/


FFC'S DISTANT VISION

FFC Works on Distant Vision (The Film Stage)

I have mentioned a couple of times that I believe that it is very possible that Francis Ford Coppola might return to Telluride this year to demonstrate, talk about, show his latest experiment in what he calls " kind of hybrid".  He also calls it "live cinema".  The project is named Distant Vision and Coppola has tackled a version of it twice now.  Once in Oklahoma City and most recently at UCLA.

I wouldn't be completely surprised if TFF #43 included a small demonstration of the project during the fest.

The Film Stage took a peak at what Coppola's been doing last week.  That story is here:

https://thefilmstage.com/news/watch-francis-ford-coppola-sharpens-distant-vision-in-rehearsal-for-next-film/

And a video of FFC at work and describing the project is here:

https://vimeo.com/175960112/3846472146


That's it for Tuesday.  Come back tomorrow for more...

Contact MTFB at:

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Or leave a comment...

And The Oscar Went To...

Good Post Oscar Monday peeps!

AND THE OSCAR WENT TO...

Here are your results from last night's presentation of the 88th Academy Awards (Telluride #42 films are in Bold):


Animated Short: Bear Story

Documentary Short: The Girl in the River

Live Action Short: Stutterer

Sound Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road

Sound Mixing: Mad Max:Fury Road

Makeup/Hair: Mad Max; Fury Road

Costumes: Mad Max: Fury Road

Production Design: Mad Max: Fury Road

Visual Effects: Ex Machina

Original Song: Writings on the Wall/Spectre

Original Score: The Hateful Eight

Cinematography: The Revenant

Film Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road

Documentary Feature: Amy

Animated Feature: Inside Out

Foreign Language Film: Son of Saul

Original Screenplay: Spotlight

Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short

Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance

Supporting Actress; Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl

Lead Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant

Lead Actress: Brie Larson/Room

Direction; Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant

Best Picture: Spotlight 



Telluride 2015 Films with wins:

Oscar totals:

The Revenant wins  three Oscars

Mad Max:Fury Road wins six Oscars.

Spotlight won two Oscars.

The FAC goes   15/24 in its Oscar picks for 63 %.  The FAC did have the actual winners in seven of its misses as possible spoilers.

Telluride #42 films won four Oscars:  Spotlight two, Son of Saul and Room (Brie Larson/Best Actress) one apiece.

The Telluride streakof the first North American screening of the eventual Best Picture winner continues :

2008-Slumdog Millionaire
2010- The King's Speech
2011-The Artist
2012- Argo
2013- 12 Years a Slave
2014- Birdman
2015- Spotlight

Six straight years and seven of the last eight.

Biggest surprise of the night was the Ex Machina win for Visual Effects.

More coverage and a turning of the page coming on Thursday's post from Michael's Telluride Film Blog...What will we see in the San Juans this Labor Day?

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Screen Actors Guild Awards: Another Oscar Re-shuffle? / Rooney Mara Talks Carol / Feinberg's Latest Forecast

Good Monday and welcome to February!  We're down to less than four weeks in this Oscar season and the Best Picture race took another turn over the weekend...


SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS: ANOTHER OSCAR RE-SHUFFLE?

The Screen Actors Guild Awards were handed out late Saturday night for both film and television work.  Tom McCarthy's Spotlight won the Best Ensemble Award besting The Big Short and possibly indicating a continuing tight battle for the Best Picture Oscar.  The Big Short was perceived by many Oscar experts as having pulled into a slight lead owing to its Producers Guild Award from last weekend.  A SAG win last for ensemble would have likely strengthened that view but the win for Spotlight has caused some re-evaluation yet again.

Add to all of this that the Directors Guild announces their award this coming weekend and it could very easily award neither McCarthy or The Big Short's Adam McKay.  Plausible cases can be made that any of the other DGA nominees might pick up the trophy: Inarritu/The Reverent, Miller/Mad Max: Fury Road or Scott/The Martian.  So, the DGA could provide a sign of clarity if either McKay or McCarthy should win, or confusion should any of those other three take the award.  Perhaps a Miller or Inarittu win get their films back near the top on the Best Picture speculation.  It'll be fun reading those tea leaves next Monday.

Meanwhile, in addition to Spotlight, other TFF #42 alumni picked up SAG Awards Saturday night as Brie Larson won Best Actress for Room and Idris Elba won Best Supporting Actor for Beasts of No Nation.

Non-TFF #42 winners were Leonardo DiCaprio for Best Actor for The Revenant and Alicia Vikander for Supporting Actress for The Danish Girl.  Mad Max:Fury Road picked up the award for Stunt Ensemble as it should have.

Honestly, for what's its worth, I still semi-believe Spotlight is going to win Best Picture on Oscar night.

I have linked complete coverage and analysis of The SAG results here from The Hollywood Reporter, The Film Stage, The Playlist and Deadline:


http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/sag-awards-spotlight-victory-confirms-860909

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/2016-sag-winners-complete-list-856945/item/outstanding-performance-by-a-female-846007

http://thefilmstage.com/news/spotlight-leonardo-dicaprio-and-brie-larson-lead-2016-sag-award-winners/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/sag-award-winners-spotlight-wins-best-ensemble-leonardo-dicaprio-idris-elba-brie-larson-are-also-winners-20160130

http://deadline.com/2016/01/sag-awards-analysis-a-big-night-for-netflix-diversity-repeat-winners-and-oscar-front-runners-hammond-1201693646/



ROONEY MARA TALKS CAROL

Best Supporting Actress nominee Rooney Mara talks about Carol in this half hour YouTube video proffered by The Weinstein Company last week.  Enjoy!

Rooney Mara on Carol via YouTube

FEINBERG'S LATEST FORECAST

The Hollywood Reporter's Oscar expert, Scott Feinberg posted his latest Oscar prognostications late last week and they came prior to Saturday night's SAG results.

Feinberg's analysis suggests that TFF #42 films are positioned thusly:

Best Pic: Spotlight trailing The Big Short and Room is in his #5 spot.

Director: McCarthy/Spotlight is #4 and Abrahamson/Room is #5

Actor: Fassbender/Steve Jobs is #5

Actress: Larson/Room at #1 and Rampling/45 Years at #3 and Blanchett/Carol at #4

Supporting Actor: Ruffalo/Spotlight at #2

Supporting Actress: Mara/Carol #3, McAdams/Spotlight at #4 and Winslet/Steve Jobs at #5

Adapted Screenplay: Room at #3, Carol at #5

Original Screenplay: Spotlight at #1

Animated Feature: Anomalisa is at #2
Documentary Feature: The Look of Silence is #4 and Winter on Fire is at #5
Foreign Language Film: Son of Saul at #1
Cinematography: Carol at #4
Costumes: Carol at #1
Film Editing: Spotlight at #5
Original Score: Carol at #4


If Scott is right TFF #42 films pick up four Oscars on Feb. 28.


Come back for more on Thursday!

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The Big Short Wins Big / Trailering Marguerite / THR Features Room Star

Welcome to Monday after a late Saturday night surprise...

THE BIG SHORT WINS BIG

It wasn't a total shocker late Saturday night when The Producers Guild of America named Adam McKay's The Big Short the winner of its Film of the Year Award but it's also what was not expected.  I think most interested observers felt that Spotlight would win and follow that with a Best Picture Oscar win next month.

The Big Short along with Mad Max:Fury Road and The Revenant were all thought to be possibilities but, again, if the big collective Oscar experts sites are to be believed, most thought Spotlight would win.

The PGA is regarded by many as the best bellwether for the Big Win having matched exactly the last eight years (half and half actually for its tie two years ago between Gravity and eventual Oscar winner 12 Years a Slave).  The PGA's voting process is very much like the Oscar's preferential ballot and it's hard to argue with eight years of predictive accuracy.

On a related note, I was going to run a new FAC analysis this morning for 6-8 major Oscar categories in today's post but with Saturday night's news, I've decided to wait and run that in Thursday's regular post to see what effect the PGA win will have.  SO, if you were looking for that today, my apologies.

You'd be wise to bet that The Big Short will now become the favorite to win Best Picture.

Here's early analysis from Sasha Stone/Awards Daily, Kristopher Tapley/InContention and Dave McNary/Variety:


http://www.awardsdaily.com/2016/01/24/the-big-short-surprises-to-win-producers-guild/

http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/oscars-pga-the-big-short-best-picture-frontrunner-1201687331/

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/pga-awards-winners-2016-producers-guild-of-america-1201687085/

Looking at these articles, you'll find that The Big Short will likely be at the top of the next charts from The Gurus of Gold and Gold Derby (as well as The FAC) but everyone seems at least alittle cautious because the season has been anything but predictable.  Chack back Thursday...

Here's the last Gold Derby and Gurus of Gold charts that were post nomination announcements and prior to Saturday's PGA announcement:


http://www.goldderby.com/odds/experts/416/


http://moviecitynews.com/2016/01/gurus-o-gold-the-week-after-nominations/


Of course, I have to mention that if The Big Short does win on Oscar night that the Telluride consecutive string of Best Picture winners would end (each year since 2010).


TRAILERING MARGUERITE

Marguerite trailer via YouTube

One of the films that I wish I had gotten to in Telluride last September was Marguerite.  It's a story loosely based on the experience of American "singer" Florence Foster Jenkins.  My brother caught a screening that weekend and really enjoyed it.  The Cohen Media Group has released a trailer with English subtitles for the film .  The film does not have a set U.S. release date at this point but has opened in much of Europe and is set to open in England on Mar. 18.  Here's The Playlist story that covers the release of the subtitled trailer:


http://www.indiewire.com/article/watch-marguerite-hits-a-high-note-in-feel-good-trailer-for-festival-sensation-20160122



THR FEATURES ROOM STAR

The Hollywood Reporter has posted an extensive profile of Best Actress Oscar favorite Brie Larson.  Larson was in Telluride last Labor Day with Lenny Abrahamson's (also Oscar nominated for Best Director) Room.

Room was very well regarded at the end of TFF #42 as MTFB's People's Telluride ratings had the film at #1 with a 4.47 rating (out of a possible perfect score of five).

Laurie Sandell writing for THR:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/features/brie-larsons-20-year-climb-857011



That's a wrap for Monday...come back Thursday to see where the Oscar landscape is.

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The Film Awards Clearinghouse Major Category Thanksgiving Update / Oscar Experts / Todd Haynes Interviewed by Gus Van Sant

Good Monday to everyone and welcome to Thanksgiving Week 2015...


THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE MAJOR CATEGORY THANKSGIVING UPDATE

Nearly a month has passed since our last snapshot of the four major Oscar categories and there have been some developments.  "Steve Jobs" took a dive at the box office and that has definitely altered the view among Oscar experts regarding its chances in the Best Picture and Directing categories.  "The Martian" appears to be coming on strong.  Let's take a look.


For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.


BEST PICTURE

"Spotlight" trailer via YouTube

1) Spotlight (1)
2) The Revenant (3)
3) The Martian (12)
4) Room (5)
5) Bridge of Spies (6)
6) Brooklyn (4)
7) Joy (7)
8) Steve Jobs (2)

9) Inside Out (11)
10) Carol (10)
11) The Hateful Eight (9)
12) The Big Short (NR)

Hot: "The Martian", "Inside Out", "The Big Short"
Cold: "Brooklyn", Steve Jobs", "The Hateful Eight" and "The Danish Girl" which dropped off the list entirely.
Comment:  "The Martian" change and the "Steve Jobs" box office debacle have really shaken this race up.  I'm not so sure that "Jobs" is completely out of this as Fassbender still has a lot of Best Actor support (see below).  At this point, I could see any of the top four films taking the big prize...and yes, I'm including "Room" in that assessment.  People really love the film and its strength is reflected in Lenny Abrahamson's climb in the director's race and Brie Larson's support in the Best Actress race.  Remember too, that it won the Toronto audience award and finished in the top spot in my collection of viewers' ratings for The People's Telluride.


BEST DIRECTION

"Room" trailer via YouTube

1) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight (1)
2) Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant (3)
3) Ridley Scott/The Martian (7)
4) Steven Spielberg/Bridge of Spies (5)
5) Lenny Abrahamson/Room (NR)

6) David O. Russell/Joy (4)
7) George Miller/Mad Max: Fury Road (10)
8) Todd Haynes/Carol (8)
9) Danny Boyle/Steve Jobs (2)
10) Quentin Tarantino/The Hateful Eight (6)

Hot: Scott, Abrahamsom and Miller.
Cold: Russell, Boyle and Tom Hooper (Danish Girl)
Comment:Danny Boyle's fall also underscores the drop in prospects for "Steve Jobs" as Abrahamson's ascendance emphasizes the popularity of "Room".  Also, "The Danish Girl" is taking a hit in both Picture and Directing categories.  Eddie Redmayne still seems to be competitive in the Best Actor category (see below).


BEST ACTRESS

"Carol" trailer via YouTube

1) Brie Larson/Room (1)
2) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy (2)
3) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn (3)
4) Cate Blanchett/Carol (4)
5) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years (6)

6) Carey Mulligan/Suffragette (5)
7) Blythe Danner/I'll See You in My Dreams (10)
8) Lily Tomlin/Grandma (7)
9) Maggie Smith/The Lady in the Van (9)
10) Cate Blanchett/Truth (8)

Hot: Danner
Cold: Blanchett in "Truth"
Comment: A remarkably steady category.  Larson is the closest thing to a lock in any of the four major categories in a year where "locks" have been few and far between.


BEST ACTOR

"Steve Jobs" trailer via YouTube

1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant (3)
2) Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs (1)
3) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl (2)
4) Johnny Depp/Black Mass (4)
5) Matt Damon/The Martian (6)

6) Michael Caine/Youth (5)
7) Will Smith/Concussion (8)
8) Tom Hanks/Bridge of Spies (7)
9) Ian McKellen/Mr. Holmes (9)
10) Steve Carell/The Big Short (10)


Hot: DiCaprio
Cold:  No one really.
Comment:  Both Fassbender and Redmayne stay in the thick of the race despite their films having suffered some serious doubts in the Picture and Directing categories.  The same could be said for Johnny Depp.

Currently, if The FAC is 100% accurate Telluride #42 films will get 10 nominations from these major categories with another four possibilities.

I'll update the Supporting and Screenplay categories on Thursday so come back for that.



OSCAR EXPERTS

The latest Oscar assessments in detail from the pros: Kristopher Tapley, Scott Feinberg and Sasha Stone:

http://variety.com/2015/film/in-contention/oscar-predictions-oscars-academy-awards-1201600870/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/awards/predictions/oscars/2015/academy-awards-112015/

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/11/20/predictions-friday-still-guessing-at-what-we-dont-know-for-sure/


TODD HAYNES INTERVIEWED BY GUS VAN SANT

Todd Haynes and Rooney Mara at the Patron's Brunch 

For Issue Magazine, Todd Haynes sat down with film maker Gus Van Sant to talk about "Carol" and other topics.  It's here:

http://issuemagazine.com/todd-haynes/#/


That's a wrap for Monday...remember to come back for Thursday's MTFB for a look at where The FAC says we are in the Supporting Acting and Screenplay races.

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

Trailers Times Three / Oscar Matters: Brie Larson and "Room" / Oscar Matters: InContention's Latest Look

Good Thursday to everyone.  MTFB/The FAC is on the road this week in Dallas, TX.  No film reason, though there was filming here last week for the forthcoming adaptation of Stephen King's "11/22/63" which is set to show up on Hulu.

Nope, we're in Big D for a Don Henley concert...then back to OKC for family fun.

It's fall break.

Thank God.


TRAILERS TIMES THREE

New trailer came down the pike this week for three Telluride 2015 films and I pass them on to you via YouTube with a story to accompany them.

First, a new look at the final trailer for Cary Fukunaga's "Beasts of No Nation":

And the story from MTFB friend (and one of "The Professionals" who rates films for the blog each year at T-ride) Alex Billington and FirstShowing.net:

http://www.firstshowing.net/2015/final-trailer-for-beasts-of-no-nation-go-see-this-film/


Also, a new trailer for Guatemala's Oscar Foreign Language entry "Ixcanul":

The Film Stage has a fantastic and extensive collection of the trailers for the 81 films that have been submitted for the Foreign Language Oscar.  You can find that here:

http://thefilmstage.com/features/your-guide-to-the-81-best-foreign-language-film-2016-oscar-contenders/


And we circle back to FirstShowing.net and the release of the official trailer for Stig Bjorkman's "Ingrid Bergman: In Her Own Words".  Here's that trailer:

And the story from Alex:


http://www.firstshowing.net/2015/watch-official-trailer-for-ingrid-bergman-in-her-own-words-doc/


OSCAR MATTERS: BRIE LARSON AND "ROOM"

Two big Brie Larson interviews showed up in the last day or two as "Room" gets ready to open this weekend.  Larson talks about the film with Jenelle Riley of Variety and Lauren Moraski of CBS News and both of those articles are linked here:

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/brie-larson-room-oscars-1201615960/

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/brie-larson-on-going-silent-for-buzzy-room-film/

Incidentally, I'm pretty sure I ran into Larson at Telluride playing darts at one of the local pizza places.  I didn't interrupt the game.


OSCAR MATTERS: IN CONTENTION'S LATEST LOOK

Now that the New York Fest is over, the Oscar prognosticators are re-calculating.  They'll do that again after the AFI Fest next month and again with the screening of big December releases such as "The Revenant" and "Joy".

Kristopher Tapley has re-calibrated at Variety/InContention and I have culled his latest for Telluride-centric Oscar predictions.  Here's what he's saying as of yesterday:

Telluride films/performers in the following categories will be nominees:

Best Picture: "Black Mass', "Room", "Spotlight", "Steve Jobs"
Best Director: Abrahamson/"Room", McCarthy/"Spotlight", Boyle/"Steve Jobs"
Best Actor: Depp/"Black Mass", Fassbender/"Steve Jobs"
Best Actress: Larson/"Room", Rampling/"45 Years"
Best Supporting Actor: Edgerton/"Black Mass', Keaton/"Spotlight"
Best Supporting Actress: Mara/"Carol", Winslet/"Steve Jobs"
Adapted Screenplay: "Room", "Steve Jobs"
Original Screenplay: "Spotlight"
Costumes: "Carol"
Film Editing: "Spotlight", "Steve Jobs"
Makeup/Hair: "Black Mass"
Production Design: "Carol"
Documentary: "The Look of Silence" (TFF #41)
Foreign Language Film: "Son of Saul", "Rams", "Viva"


For Tapley's complete predictions look here:


http://variety.com/2015/film/in-contention/oscar-predictions-oscars-academy-awards-1201600870/


That's Thursday's post...if you see me at the Henley concert tonight, say hello!


Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

There is Another...Critic's Collection for Telluride / More Looks at Post_TFF Oscar Analysis / 200,000 Milestone / Rate Your Films

Good Thursday Everyone...


THERE IS ANOTHER...CRITIC'S COLLECTION FOR TELLURIDE

As I finish collecting ratings from the dozen or so industry professionals about their reactions to films that screened at this year's festival, Indiewire/Criticwire has posted a critic's poll of their own.  The Criticwire survey asked its panel to rank the films they saw from first to fifth.

The survey also asked the respondents to make decisions in a number of other categories: Lead and Supporting Performances and Director.  Leaders in those categories were:

Lead: Brie Larson/Room
Supporting: Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation
Direction: Laszlo Nemes/Son of Saul
Narrative Feature: Son of Saul

Among the critics that were a part of the poll are several which are also playing in MTFB's Professionals Telluride; Nick Allen, Alex Billington, Gregory Ellwood, David Ehrlich, Eric Kohn and Tomris Laffly.

Take a look at the complete survey here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/criticwire/critics-pick-the-best-films-and-performances-from-telluride-2015-20150909


MORE LOOKS AT POST-TFF OSCAR ANALYSIS

I'm continuing today to provide readers links to articles/posts from Oscar prognosticators who are gazing into their crystal balls and re-evaluating their preliminary views in light of reactions to the screenings of films at last week's TFF.

Indiewire's Peter Knegt takes a look at seven films that got an Oscar boost here:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/for-your-consideration-7-films-that-jumped-into-the-oscar-race-this-past-week-20150908


And Nigel M. Smith reviews the Oscar field post-Telluride for The Guardian here:

http://www.theguardian.com/film/2015/sep/09/telluride-oscar-award-race-2016?CMP=twt_a-film_b-gdnfilm


200,000 MILESTONE

Sometime yesterday Michael's Telluride Film Blog was the recipient of its 200,000th view.  Yeesh.  I know that's small potatoes when compared to, for example, Indiewire but it boggles my mind that this space has been looked at that many times by that many people.

MTFB started in late summer 2008 and crossed the 100,000 view threshold on Sept. 16, 2013.  That means that it took five years to get to that first 100K and almost exactly two years to get to the next 200K

Thanks for reading, everyone.  I hope you find this helpful and useful.  Next goal is a quarter of a million views!

That's it for Thursday...

EXCEPT TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT YOU NEED TO RATE YOUR TELLURIDE FILMS!

The People's Telluride publication is just a week away.