Michael's Telluride Film Blog : Will & Harper

Showing posts with label Will & Harper. Show all posts

Thursday, December 12, 2024

MTFB Oscar Update: Screenplays and More / The MTFB Nomination Totals

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

Here are updated nomination predictions for the Screenplay categories for the 97th Academy Awards. These categories were last predicted on Nov. 28th. A film's previous rank appears to the right in parentheses. In addition I have added first predictions for Best Costume Design, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects. TFF #51 films are in Bold.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave

2) Emilia Perez

3) Sing Sing

4) Nickel Boys

5) Dune Part Two

Others: A Complete Unknown, The Room Next Door and Inside Out 2.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anora

2) A Real Pain

3) The Brutalist

4) September 5

5) The Substance

Others: Hard Truths, The Seed of the Sacred Fig and Saturday Night.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Wicked

2) Dune Part Two

3) Gladiator II

4) Maria

5) Nosfaratu

Others: Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, Blitz and A Complete Unknown.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR

1) Dune Part Two

2) The Substance

3) Wicked

4) Nosferatu

5) Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice

Others: A Different Man, Emilia Perez and A Complete Unknown.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune Part Two

2) Gladiator II

3) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

4) Wicked

5) Twisters

Others: Mufasa: The Lion King, Furiosa: a Mad Max Saga and Better Man.

THE MTFB NOMINATION TOTALS

And so for the first time in this 2024-25 Oscar race, MTFB has predictions for all 20 feature film categories. Here's what MTFB is currently predicting for TFF #51 films in as far as Oscar nominations are concerned:

EMILIA PEREZ (11) Best Picture, International Feature, Direction, Actress (Gascon), Supporting Actress (Saldana), Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Score, Song (Mi Camino), Song (El Mal) and Sound. The film could also end up with nominations for Selena Gomez for Supporting Actress, Cinematography and Production Design.

CONCLAVE (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Rossellini), Adapted Screenplay, Editing and Score. Conclave could also possibly be nominated for Supporting Actor (Tucci), Cinematography and Production Design.

ANORA (6): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Madison), Supporting Actor (Borisov), Original Screenplay and Editing.

A REAL PAIN (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Culkin) and Original Screenplay. A Real Pain could also score a Best Actor nomination for Jesse Eisenberg.

MARIA (3): Best Actress (Jolie), Cinematography and Costumes.

SEPTEMBER 5 (2); Best Picture and Original Screenplay. The film could aso snag nominations for Supporting Actor (Magaro) and Editing.

Single Nominees:

NICKEL BOYS: Best Adapted Screenplay. Three other possible nominations: Direction, Cinematography and Supporting Actress (Ellis-Taylor).

PIECE BY PIECE: Best Song (Piece by Piece). Also a possible additional nomination for Animated Feature.

THE SEED OF THE SACRED FIG: Best International Feature. "Seed" also could get nominated for Original Screenplay.

THE OUTRUN: Best Actress (Ronan).

THE PIANO LESSON: Best Supporting Actress (Deadwyler).

MEMOIR OF A SNAIL: Best Animated Feature.

NO OTHER LAND: Best Documentary Feature.

Films that aren't currently predicted nominees but who could still get in:

WILL & HARPER: Best Documentary Feature and Best Original Song (Harper and Will Go West).

SATURDAY NIGHT: Original Screenplay and Score.

THE APPRENTICE: Best Actor (Stan) and Best Supporting Actor (Strong).

BETTER MAN: Best Visual Effects.

In total, MTFB predicts 13 TFF #51 films earn 40 nominations including five for Best Picture. In addition, 16 other possible nominations that could include an additional seven TFF #51 films. WOW!

I'll be updating Best Picture predictions on Monday.

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Monday, September 16, 2024

The People's Telluride / Toronto's People's Choice Award and TFF #51 / Early Oscar Picks from Experts-THR / New International Trailer for Anora / Reitman on Saturday Night / Behind the Scenes on Memoir of a Snail / Not a Blurb...But...

THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE

Well, here it is. The 2024 edition of MTFB's People's Telluride Poll. I'll address the parameters that guided the poll below but I suspect you want to get right to the results...

1) Zawurski v. Texas 4.64

2) Will and Harper 4.47

3) Anora 4.44

4) Conclave 4.34

5) Emilia Perez 4.30

6) A Real Pain 4.28

7) September 5 4.20

8) Memoir of a Snail 4.03

9) Saturday Night 4.02

10) The Outrun 3.74

11) Maria 3.68

12) The Apprentice 3.55

13) The Friend 3.51

14) Piece by Piece 3.40

15) The Piano Lesson 3.29

16) Nickel Boys 3.26

17) Don't Let's Go to the Dogs Tonight 3.16

18) The End 2.52

TFF #51 had a record response with more votes from The People than ever before. To make the list a film had to have been seen by at least 25% of the respondents to the poll. A 1 to 5 scale was used. I added all ratings up for each film and those that met the threshold then divided the total ratings points by the number of people who had responded with ratings for that film. That provided the average rating for each film above on the 5 point scale.

For fun the top five most "seen" films among the folks who responded with votes for the poll where:

1) Saturday Night which was seen by 82.4% of respondents. The rest of the top five were:

2) Conclave 74.3%

3) Anora 71.6%

4) September 5 and Nickel Boys at 50%

I really thought as the numbers were coming in that Anora was going to take the top spot.

Zuwarski's 4.64 will move it to #6 on the all time list of The People's Telluride. That will also keep Will & Harper from moving onto the top ten as its 4.47 average will just be outside the top ten behind The Two Popes and Poor Things tied for the 9-10 spots now with a 4.51 average. Will & Harper's 4.47 ties them with Roma and Room now at the 11-13 spots.

And a personal note, I want to thank so many of you that offered thoughts in response to my Sept. 3rd post and the questions that it posed. It was, as they say, affirming. I mean really affirming. Thanks TFF peeps!

TORONTO'S PEOPLE'S CHOICE AWARD AND TFF

Yesterday Mike Flanagan's The Life of Chuck surprisingly (at least to me) won the Toronto International Film Festival's People's Choice Award. Runner-up Jacques Audiard's Emilia Perez which rated #3 on the TFF #51 Pro's Poll and #5 above for the People.

Second Runner-up was Sean Baker's Anora which you can see from this post and my previous post topped this year's TFF Pro's poll and was third on the just published People's Poll.

Josh Greenbaum's documentary, which played really well at Telluride (again, as you can see above) finished second in the voting for TIFF's People's Choice of Docs. Landing ahead of it was Tragically Hip: no Time for Rehearsal.

Here's the complete rundown of results from Toronto as reported by Deadline.

EARLY OSCAR PICKS FROM EXPERTS

The Hollywood Reporter's Awards executive Editor Scott Feinberg opens the 2024-25 Oscar season predicting these nominations for TFF #51 films (Scott is making predictions in the Big Eight categories as well as Animated, Documentary and International Features).

Emilia Perez (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Gascon), Supporting Actress-2 (Saldana, Gomez), Original Screenplay, International Film.

Conclave (6): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Fiennes), Supporting Actor (Tucci), Supporting Actress (Rossellini), Adapted Screenplay.

Anora (4): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Madison), Original Screenplay.

September 5 (4): Best Picture, Actor (Sarsgaard), Supporting Actor (Magaro), Original Screenplay.

Saturday Night (2): Best Picture, Original Screenplay.

A Real Pain (2): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Culkin).

Piece by Piece (2): Best Picture, Animated Feature.

The Seed of the Sacred Fig (2): Best Direction, International Feature.

The Apprentice (2): Best Actor (Stan), Supporting Actor (Strong).

The Piano Lesson (2): Best Actor (Washington), Supporting Actress (Deadwyler).

Maria (1): Best Actress (Jolie).

Nickel Boys (1) Best Adapted Screenplay.

No Other Land (1): Best Documentary.

Hollywood Gate (1) : Best Documentary (from TFF #50).

That's 36 projected nominations for TFF #51 films in theses 11 categories.

Here's Feinberg's complete list of projected nominees from The Hollywood Reporter.

NEW (INTERNATIONAL) TRAILER FOR ANORA

From YouTube:

REITMAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT

IndieWire's Kate Erbland talks to writer/director Jason Reitman about TFF #51 world premiering film Saturday Night. Here's the link.

BEHIND THE SCENES OF MEMOIR OF A SNAIL

MTFB friend Alex Billington at his site FirstShowing.net has linked five mini-behind-the scenes featurettes from Adam Elliots' delightful and moving Memoir of a Snail. Variety has it currently #3 on its Animated Feature Oscar nominations predictions and The Hollywood Reporter has it a #10.

Alex has them all collected at his site here.

NOT A BLURB...BUT...

I have long dreamed of the day when my publicly posted response to a film gets blurbed in a trailer or a TV ad...and, of course that hasn't happened...yet.

Back in 2011 I freelanced for The Playlist and reviewed three films at TFF #38 and filed reviews for The Descendants, Albert Nobbs and Butter. I had nice things to say about The Descendants and Albert Nobbs (Butter not so much) and thought that might be the moment. It was not.

Since then I know it's unlikely as to tag a blurb with "of Michael's Telluride Film Blog" seems smallish. But you know...maybe someday. I've certainly been highlighted by other sites and blogs regarding that meat and bones of what the blog does.

But I did get a little closer as I found with Gold Derby's roundup of Jason Retiman's Saturday Night I find myself included as "more reactions". Evidence below:

Sooooo...inching closer?