Ten Bets for TFF #53-Vol.5 / Who's Got What? Distributors: Mubi / Is Behemoth! Coming? / Next Best Picture Guesses Telluride (and other fall fests)

TEN BETS FOR TFF #53-VOL.5

The countdown to TFF #53 grows shorter and shorter.  

Here's the fifth installment of MTFB's Ten Bets, the weekly guess at what films make the Telluride lineup.  We start with a reminder of last week's bets:

Artificial

Bucking Fastard

Club Kid

Coward

The Debut

Elsinore

Fatherland

La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Other possibilities: A Long Winter, Fjord, Yellow Letters and The Story of Documentary Film.

If you read last Monday's post you'll recall that Neon has reversed course on Luca Guadagnino's Artificial and, at least for now, are avowing that the film "isn't likely to go down the standard festival route"  which Deadline points out does not preclude some festival appearance.  Heck, Deadline even says they think it will likely will be at some festival.  As a matter of fact, Deadline's language doesn't shut the door on Artificial at TFF but rather, sounds like Telluride might be the most likely landing spot:

"That doesn’t mean it won’t pop up at a festival in some form (we bet it will), but it won’t have the traditional launch with the bells and whistles of a red carpet, press conference, junkets, etc."

So, I'm moving Artificial to the list of possibles and Andrew Haigh's A Long Winter back into the Ten Bets:

Bucking Fastard

Club Kid

Coward

The Debut

Elsinore

A Long Winter

Fatherland

La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Other possibilities: Artificial, Fjord, Yellow Letters and The Story of Documentary Film.

A couple of other notes... 

For Ten Bets #6 next week I'll begin to actually list the films in order of likelihood to play...

And we should get some news from Toronto which should be informative.

WHO'S GOT WHAT? DISTRIBUTORS: MUBI

MTFB continues its look at the film distribution companies that have had the largest profiles at the Telluride Film Festival over the past five years in an effort to, perhaps, set the table for films that could be headed to TFF #53.  Up to this point for 2026 we have examined: Netflix, Neon, Sony Pictures Classics, Focus Features and A24. Each of those outfits have averaged two or more films at TFF in that time span.

Today we look at Mubi, which has had nine films at Telluride since 2021 but whose footprint has increased over the last couple of years.  Additionally Mubi could potentially provide more films to TFF #53 than any other distributor.

Here's Mubi's history over the last five years:

2021: Unclenching the Fists.

2022: No films.

2023: Fallen Leaves, High & Low: John Galliano, Tehachapi.

2024: Bird.

2025: The History of Sound, King Hamlet, La Grazia, Mastermind.

And these are the films in the Mubi warehouse we think might be TFF possibilities (with their chance of making the lineup):

Coward 70%

Fatherland 65%

A Long Winter 55%

Minotaur 50%

Rose 40%

Hope 25%

NEXT BEST PICTURE GUESSES TELLIRIDE (AND OTHER FALL FESTS)

Matt Neglia and his crew at Next Best Picture have posted a massive list of films for each of the four major "fall" film fests: Telluride, Venice, Toronto and New York.  Looking at his T-ride list is intriguing,  Here it is with films on the MTFB Ten Bets (and possibilities) list indicated with ***.

All Of A Sudden (Ryusuki Hamaguchi)

American Doctor (Poh Si Teng)

Artificial (Luca Guadagnino)***

Behemoth! (Tony Gilroy)

Bitter Christmas (Pedro Almodóvar)

Bucking Fastard (Werner Herzog)***

Club Kid (Jordan Firstman)***

Coward (Lukas Dhont)***

The Debut (Jesse Eisenberg)***

Elsinore (Simon Stone)***

Fatherland (Paweł Pawlikowski)***

Fjord (Cristian Mungiu)***

Iron Boy (Louis Clichy)

Josephine (Beth de Araújo)

La Bola Negra (Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi)***

La Gradiva (Marine Atlan)

A Long Winter (Andrew Haigh)***

Minotaur (Andrey Zvyagintsev)***

Mouse (Kelly O’Sullivan and Alex Thompson)

The Only Living Pick Pocket In New York (Noah Segan)

Primetime (Lance Oppenheim)

Rehearsals for a Revolution (Pegah Ahangarani)

Rose (Markus Schleinzer)

Saturn Return (Greg Kwedar)

The Unknown (Arthur Harari)

Yellow Letters (İlker Çatak)***

Couple of notes:

Films on the NBP list that are not currently a "Bet" by MTFB but are on the radar are: Behemoth!, Bitter Christmas, La Gradiva, Primetime, Rose and Saturn Return.

Josephine and The Only Living Pickpocket in New York were Sundance selections which doesn't rule them out for Telluride, but it's uncommon for a film to screen both places.

Next Best Pictures' complete set of lists is linked here.

https://nextbestpicture.com/predicting-the-2026-fall-film-festival-lineups-for-venice-telluride-tiff-nyff/

IS BEHEMOTH! COMING?

Lot's of buzz early this week with first look photos and a trailer for Tony Gilroy's Behemoth!  The film stars Pedro Pascal and is described at IMDb like this:

"Follows a musician from a family of musicians who returns to Los Angeles. A love letter to the music of the movies and the people who make it."

Behemoth! is being distributed by Searchlight and there is a good deal of speculation that it will be making a fall film fest run though whether that would include Telluride is very uncertain at this point.

Here's an image from the Vanity Fair article:

In addition, Searchlight dropped a trailer on Tuesday.  Here that is from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7T64gVlcc1I&t=99s

Searchlight hasn't yet announced a release date from the film.

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Hope for Hope? / Announced Release Dates for TFF Possible Films / Yellow Letters and Berlin

HOPE FOR HOPE?

Alex Billington at First Showing.net posted that Cannes competition choice Hope will be released in the U.S. on Sept. 9th which means it's a film that could play TFF #53...but it's cutting it very tight.  TFF will conclude on  Monday, Sept. 7th.  The film made a minor splash at Cannes and ended that fest with a 6.15 rating on the Cannes-ratins.org website.

IMDb describes it:

"A mysterious discovery is made on the outskirts of the remote harbor town. The residents find themselves in a desperate fight for survival against something they have never encountered before."

The film is being distributed domestically by NEON which doesn't diminish any chance that it could play TFF.

For the moment I'm going to put it in the "possible but not probable" column.

Here's Billington's rundown of release dates throughout 2026.

https://www.firstshowing.net/schedule2026/#aug

As a matter of fact...

ANNOUNCED RELASE DATES FOR TFF POSSIBLE FILMS

Digger 10/2 (Has been announced as not planning any festival exposure)

The Social Reckoning 10/9

Wild Horse Nine 11/6

I Play Rocky 11/13

YELLOW LETTERS AND BERLIN

Mubi posted an overview of Ilker Catak's Berlin Golden Bear winner Yellow Letters on Monday which reminded me that I haven't really mentioned that I think it has a very good shot at making the TFF lineup.  Catak was at Telluride in 2023 with The Teacher's lounge which ended up with an Oscar nomination for Best International Feature.

The description for Yellow Letters goes like this:

"The marriage of Derya and Aziz is under pressure after losing their jobs because of state arbitrariness and moving to Istanbul to live with Aziz's parents. They and their 13-year-old daughter Ezgi have to redefine their way of life."

Additionally, I think the other Berlin film that might show at The SHOW is Markus Schleinzer's Rose starring the actress of the moment Sandra Huller.  Huller won the Berlin award for Best Actress.  Rose is also being distributed by MUBI.

The description for Rose:

"A woman in the early 17th century, who is disguised as a man and wants to be a good citizen at any cost."

I'm not saying these are locks for TFF #53 by any means but, I wouldn't be surprised if one or both where in the lineup on announcement morning.

The MUBI overview for Yellow Letters is linked here.

https://mubi.com/en/notebook/posts/being-powerless-but-ethical-in-erdogan-s-new-turkey-ilker-catak-s-yellow-letters

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Prize Winners from Cannes / Stacking Up with the Recent Past / What the Ratings Suggest

PRIZE WINNERS FROM CANNES

It's all over in France.  The 79th Cannes Film Festival closed with its awards ceremony on Saturday evening and Cristian Mungiu's Fjord won the Palme d'Or.  It was Mungiu's second Palme win after having won previously for Four Years, Three Weeks, Two Days back in 2007.  That film played the Telluride Film festival.

Complete winners from the Palme d'Or official competition:

Palme d'Or: Fjord (Mungiu)

Grand Prix: Minotaur (Zvyaginastev)

Jury Prize: The Dreamed Adventure (Grisebach)

Best Direction (Tie): Fatherland (Pawelkowski) and The Black Ball (Calvo and Ambrossi)

Best Screenplay: A Man of His Time (Marre)

Best Actress (Tie): All of a Sudden (Efira and Okamoto)

Best Actor (Tie): Coward (Macchia and Campagne)

STACKING UP WITH THE RECENT PAST

For comparison's sake, here's a winner of the same categories over the last five years with eventual TFF selections indicated with an *.

2025

Palme d'Or: It Was Just an Accident (Panahi)*

Grand Prix: Sentimental Value (Trier)*

Jury Prize: (Tie) Sirat (Laxe) and The Sound of Falling (Schilinski)

Best Direction: The Secret Agent (Mendonca)*

Best Screenplay: Young Mothers (Luc and Jean-Pierre Dardennes)

Best Actress: The Little Sister (Nadia Melliti)

Best Actor (Tie): The Secret Agent (Wagner Moura)*

Special Prize: Ressurection (Gan)

2024

Palme d'Or: Anora (Baker)*

Grand Prix: All We Imagine as Light (Kapadia)*

Jury Prize: Emilia Perez (Audiard)*

Best Direction: Grand Tour (Gomes)

Best Screenplay: The Substance (Fargeat)

Best Actress: Emilia Perez (Gascon, Saldana, Gomez and Paz)*

Best Actor: Kinds of Kindness (Plemons)

Special Prize: The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Rasoulof)*

2023

Palme d'Or: Anotomy of a Fall (Triet)*

Grand Prix: The Zone of Interest (Glazer)*

Jury Prize: Fallen Leaves (Kaurismaki)*

Best Direction: The Taste of Things (Tran Ahn Hung)*

Best Screenplay: Monster (Sakamoto, dir: Kore-eda)

Best Actress: About Dry Grasses (Merve Dizdar)

Best Actor: Fallen Leaves (Koji Yakoshu)*

2022

Palme d'Or: Triangle of Sadness (Ostlund)

Grand Prix: (Tie): Stars at Noon (Denis) and Close (Dhont)*

Jury Prize: (Tie): Eo (Skolimowski) and Eight Mountains (Vandermeersch and Groeningen)

Best Direction: Decision to Leave (Chan-wook)

Best Screenplay: Boy from Heaven (Saleh)

Best Actress: Holy Spider (Amir Ebrahimi)*

Best Actor: Broker (Kang-ho)*

Special 75th Anniversary Prize: Tori and Lokita (Dardennes)*

2021

Palme d'Or: Titane (Ducournau)

Grand Prix: (Tie): Compartment  No. 6 (Kuosmanen) and A Hero (Farhadi)*

Jury Prize: (Tie): Ahed's Knee (Lapid) and Memoria (Weerasethakul)

Best Direction: Annette (Carax)

Best Screenplay: Drive My Car (Hamaguchi)

Best Actress: The Worst Person in the World (Renate Reinsve)

Best Actor: Nitram (Caleb Landry Jones)

As you can see, winning the Plame d'Or isn't a guarantee that a film will play at TFF although the last three have.

As to the rest of the categories, here's where they stand over the five years with winners then being a part of TFF:

Grand Prix: 5 (it's the most solid category in terms of a Cannes/Telluride connection).

Jury Prize: 2

Director: 2

Screenplay: 0

Actress: 2

Actor: 3

Special Prizes: 2

So your best odds by this metric favor 2026 Grand Prix winner Minotaur.

Next best are for Palme winners and Best Actor which would point toward: Fjord and Coward.

After that it gets very murky...

WHAT THE RATINGS SUGGEST

Taking a look at Cannes results over the last five years that have made the connection between Cannes and Telluride is, at the least interesting, and may be instructive as to anticipating what films might make that journey this year.

First, the average number of films that do the Telluride/Cannes two step seems to have increased over the past five years.  Here's the number that have made it since 2021:

2021-7

2022-9

2023-10

2024-8

2025-9

That averages out to 8.6 films each year.

Now, using the ratings from Cannes-ratings.org, where did these 43 films land on their 10point scale?

2021:

A Hero 7.30

Red Rocket 7.30

The French Dispatch 7.11

Bergman Island 7.09

The Velvet Underground 6.83

Cow 6.80

Unclenching the Fists 6.24

2022:

The Pupils 8.37

Aftersun 8.17

Close 7.76

Broker 7.47

Godland 7.38

One Fine Morning 7.34

Armageddon Time 6.90

Holy Spider 6.70

Tori and Lokita 6.32

2023:

The Zone of Interest 8.19

Perfect Days 7.91

Anatomy of a Fall 7.90

Fallen Leaves 7.46

La Chimera 7.46

The Taste of Things 7.01

Occupied City 6.97

Anselm 6.41

Little Girl Blue 6.21

Room 999 (no ratings found)

2024:

Anora 8.35

Misericordia 7.47

Bird 7.45

Emilia Perez 7.42

All We Imagine as Light 7.02

The Apprentice 6.94

Santosh 6.07

2025:

Sentimental Value 8.04

It Was Just an Accident 7.75

Pillion 7.30

Nouvelle Vague 7.23

Urchin 7.15

A Private Life 6.99

Mastermind 6.29

The History of Sound 5.81

43 films in all with 2025's The History of Sound being the lowest rated film to be picked up of any of the 43 by TFF.

The vast majority of films clear the 6.5 bar.  That's true for 35 of he 43 films listed above.  So what do this year's ratings signal, if anything?

Using the 6.5 or above metric and also being a little sly about films that are on the MTFB watch list, here's some takeaways:

32 films in all sections of Cannes #79 were above the 6.5 threshold. Among them, here are some films that I have on the MTFB watch list and where they are on the Cannes-ratings.org list:

#7) All of a Sudden 7.39

#10) Coward 7.28

#11) Minotaur 7.03

#21) Fjord 6.69

Other films that made enough of a splash that could earn them spots on the MTFB Watch List:

#1 Club Kid 8.37

#13 The Dreamed Adventure 6.94

#15 The Black Ball 6.91

#24 Avedon 6.50

#31 Clarissa 6.43

MTFB Watch list films that may have taken a hit:

#40 Fatherland 6.15

#42 Paper Tiger 6.15

#43 Hope 6.14

Off the top 50 grid so...you know...

Moulin 5.73

Gentle Monster 4.66

Sheep in the Box 4.53

Parallel Tales 4.22

The Unknown 4.14

Draw your own conclusions...the first official "Ten Bets" for TFF #53 drops on June18th.

More on Thursday!

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Cannes Director's Fortnight Announced / NEON Grabs Hope / Tony May Be Late

CANNES DIRECTOR'S FORTNIGHT ANNOUNCED

The Director's Fortnight Section of the 79th Cannes Film Festival has been announced.  That information was released on Tuesday.  Taking a quick look at the titles, the only film that jumps out as a possibility for TFF #53 is Kantemir Balagov's Butterfly Jam.  Balagov was at Telluride in 2029 with Beanpole.  I will say that Reed van Dyk's Atonement sounds interesting and might be worth keeping an eye on.

Butterfly Jam (Kantemir Balagov)***

9 Temples To Heaven (Sompot Chidgasornpongse)

Atonement (Reed Van Dyk)

Clarissa (Arie Esiri & Chuko Esiri)

Death has no master (Jorge Thielen Armand)

The Diary of a Chambermaid (Radu Jude)

Dora (July Jung)

La libertad doble (Lisandro Alonso)

Gabin (Maxence Voiseux)

I See Buildings Fall Like Lightning (Clio Barnard)

Low Expectations (Eivind Landsvik)

Once Upon A Time In Harlem (David Greaves)

La Perra (Dominga Sotomayor)

Shana (Lila Pinell)

Thanks for Coming (Merci d’être venu) (Alain Cavalier)

l’Espèce Explosive (Sarah Arnold)

Viva Carmen (Sebastian Laundenbach)

We Are Aliens (Kohei Kadowaki)

Le Vertige (Quentin Dupieux)

NEOIN GRABS HOPE

Reports that distributor NEON, which has a run of six straight films winning Cannes' Palme d'Or, has picked up U.S. distribution for Na Hong-jon's Hope.  The film stars Michael Fassbender and Alicia Vikander.  The acquisition makes me think that NEON thinks it could be a player when awards are handed out at the of Cannes.  That's enough to make me think it might be a consideration for TFF.

The IMDb's description goes like this:

"A mysterious discovery is made on the outskirts of the remote harbor town. The residents find themselves in a desperate fight for survival against something they have never encountered before."

NEON's Palme run has included: Parasite, Titane, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, Anora and It Was Just an Accident.  All but Titane and Triangle of Sadness subsequently played at Telluride.

TONY MAY BE LATE

I have had Matt Johnson's Tony on the periphery of my lists of "maybe" films for TFF #53 but I might have to re-calculate as World of Reel reports that the film is headed for reshoots beginning as early as next week.

Tony is based on a real episode from the life of legendary chef Anthony Bourdain.  Bourdain os being played by "The Holdovers" breakout Dominic Sessa.  Plans apparently are for the film to be available for fall festival time even with the additional filming schedule to take place now.

The complete World of Reel article is linked here.

https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2026/4/12/a24s-tony-matt-johnsons-anthony-bourdain-biopic-heads-to-reshoots-this-month

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