Neglia Takes a Stab / Black Ball Teaser / Acquisition News Out of Cannes

NEGLIA TAKES A STAB

Matt Neglia of Next Best Picture (and remember Matt was on the ground in Cannes for the first two thirds or so) posted on his X account on Monday some speculation about where all of the Cannes' Palme d'Or competition films might go during the upcoming fall film fest frenzy.  Of the 22, Matt has named 8 films that he thinks may be a part of the TFF #53 lineup...

Again, Matt's predictions: All of a Sudden, Bitter Christmas, The Black Ball, Coward, Fatherland, Fjord, Minotaur and Paper Tiger.

I'm most interested in Paper Tiger, Fatherland and Coward.  Could get interested in Fjord, Minotaur and All of a Sudden.

THE BLACK BALL TEASER

We have a teaser from The Black Ball, which we're on TFF#53 alert for.  Could it be in Telluride on Labor Day weekend?

Here it is via YouTube and MovieStar Plus:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAZ8aVMfAUw

ACQUISITION NEWS OUT OF CANNES

Deadline reports that Netflix has acquired The Black Ball for distribution and Gentle Monster as well. The pick-up doesn't either hurt a film's chances for a play at Telluride as Netflix has become a very visible presence at the fest for the last several years.

Here's the Deadline article.

https://deadline.com/2026/05/netflix-cannes-lea-seydoux-gentle-monster-1236919715/

Meanwhile, MUBI has grabbed the North American distribution rights for Kukas Dhont's Coward.  That's also a move that doesn't hurt the prospects for Coward to be at TFF.  Dhont has previously presented two films at Telluride: Girl in 2018 and Close in 2022.

Here's that story from Variety.

https://variety.com/2026/film/news/coward-lukas-dhont-mubi-north-american-rights-1236755499/

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Prize Winners from Cannes / Stacking Up with the Recent Past / What the Ratings Suggest

PRIZE WINNERS FROM CANNES

It's all over in France.  The 79th Cannes Film Festival closed with its awards ceremony on Saturday evening and Cristian Mungiu's Fjord won the Palme d'Or.  It was Mungiu's second Palme win after having won previously for Four Years, Three Weeks, Two Days back in 2007.  That film played the Telluride Film festival.

Complete winners from the Palme d'Or official competition:

Palme d'Or: Fjord (Mungiu)

Grand Prix: Minotaur (Zvyaginastev)

Jury Prize: The Dreamed Adventure (Grisebach)

Best Direction (Tie): Fatherland (Pawelkowski) and The Black Ball (Calvo and Ambrossi)

Best Screenplay: A Man of His Time (Marre)

Best Actress (Tie): All of a Sudden (Efira and Okamoto)

Best Actor (Tie): Coward (Macchia and Campagne)

STACKING UP WITH THE RECENT PAST

For comparison's sake, here's a winner of the same categories over the last five years with eventual TFF selections indicated with an *.

2025

Palme d'Or: It Was Just an Accident (Panahi)*

Grand Prix: Sentimental Value (Trier)*

Jury Prize: (Tie) Sirat (Laxe) and The Sound of Falling (Schilinski)

Best Direction: The Secret Agent (Mendonca)*

Best Screenplay: Young Mothers (Luc and Jean-Pierre Dardennes)

Best Actress: The Little Sister (Nadia Melliti)

Best Actor (Tie): The Secret Agent (Wagner Moura)*

Special Prize: Ressurection (Gan)

2024

Palme d'Or: Anora (Baker)*

Grand Prix: All We Imagine as Light (Kapadia)*

Jury Prize: Emilia Perez (Audiard)*

Best Direction: Grand Tour (Gomes)

Best Screenplay: The Substance (Fargeat)

Best Actress: Emilia Perez (Gascon, Saldana, Gomez and Paz)*

Best Actor: Kinds of Kindness (Plemons)

Special Prize: The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Rasoulof)*

2023

Palme d'Or: Anotomy of a Fall (Triet)*

Grand Prix: The Zone of Interest (Glazer)*

Jury Prize: Fallen Leaves (Kaurismaki)*

Best Direction: The Taste of Things (Tran Ahn Hung)*

Best Screenplay: Monster (Sakamoto, dir: Kore-eda)

Best Actress: About Dry Grasses (Merve Dizdar)

Best Actor: Fallen Leaves (Koji Yakoshu)*

2022

Palme d'Or: Triangle of Sadness (Ostlund)

Grand Prix: (Tie): Stars at Noon (Denis) and Close (Dhont)*

Jury Prize: (Tie): Eo (Skolimowski) and Eight Mountains (Vandermeersch and Groeningen)

Best Direction: Decision to Leave (Chan-wook)

Best Screenplay: Boy from Heaven (Saleh)

Best Actress: Holy Spider (Amir Ebrahimi)*

Best Actor: Broker (Kang-ho)*

Special 75th Anniversary Prize: Tori and Lokita (Dardennes)*

2021

Palme d'Or: Titane (Ducournau)

Grand Prix: (Tie): Compartment  No. 6 (Kuosmanen) and A Hero (Farhadi)*

Jury Prize: (Tie): Ahed's Knee (Lapid) and Memoria (Weerasethakul)

Best Direction: Annette (Carax)

Best Screenplay: Drive My Car (Hamaguchi)

Best Actress: The Worst Person in the World (Renate Reinsve)

Best Actor: Nitram (Caleb Landry Jones)

As you can see, winning the Plame d'Or isn't a guarantee that a film will play at TFF although the last three have.

As to the rest of the categories, here's where they stand over the five years with winners then being a part of TFF:

Grand Prix: 5 (it's the most solid category in terms of a Cannes/Telluride connection).

Jury Prize: 2

Director: 2

Screenplay: 0

Actress: 2

Actor: 3

Special Prizes: 2

So your best odds by this metric favor 2026 Grand Prix winner Minotaur.

Next best are for Palme winners and Best Actor which would point toward: Fjord and Coward.

After that it gets very murky...

WHAT THE RATINGS SUGGEST

Taking a look at Cannes results over the last five years that have made the connection between Cannes and Telluride is, at the least interesting, and may be instructive as to anticipating what films might make that journey this year.

First, the average number of films that do the Telluride/Cannes two step seems to have increased over the past five years.  Here's the number that have made it since 2021:

2021-7

2022-9

2023-10

2024-8

2025-9

That averages out to 8.6 films each year.

Now, using the ratings from Cannes-ratings.org, where did these 43 films land on their 10point scale?

2021:

A Hero 7.30

Red Rocket 7.30

The French Dispatch 7.11

Bergman Island 7.09

The Velvet Underground 6.83

Cow 6.80

Unclenching the Fists 6.24

2022:

The Pupils 8.37

Aftersun 8.17

Close 7.76

Broker 7.47

Godland 7.38

One Fine Morning 7.34

Armageddon Time 6.90

Holy Spider 6.70

Tori and Lokita 6.32

2023:

The Zone of Interest 8.19

Perfect Days 7.91

Anatomy of a Fall 7.90

Fallen Leaves 7.46

La Chimera 7.46

The Taste of Things 7.01

Occupied City 6.97

Anselm 6.41

Little Girl Blue 6.21

Room 999 (no ratings found)

2024:

Anora 8.35

Misericordia 7.47

Bird 7.45

Emilia Perez 7.42

All We Imagine as Light 7.02

The Apprentice 6.94

Santosh 6.07

2025:

Sentimental Value 8.04

It Was Just an Accident 7.75

Pillion 7.30

Nouvelle Vague 7.23

Urchin 7.15

A Private Life 6.99

Mastermind 6.29

The History of Sound 5.81

43 films in all with 2025's The History of Sound being the lowest rated film to be picked up of any of the 43 by TFF.

The vast majority of films clear the 6.5 bar.  That's true for 35 of he 43 films listed above.  So what do this year's ratings signal, if anything?

Using the 6.5 or above metric and also being a little sly about films that are on the MTFB watch list, here's some takeaways:

32 films in all sections of Cannes #79 were above the 6.5 threshold. Among them, here are some films that I have on the MTFB watch list and where they are on the Cannes-ratings.org list:

#7) All of a Sudden 7.39

#10) Coward 7.28

#11) Minotaur 7.03

#21) Fjord 6.69

Other films that made enough of a splash that could earn them spots on the MTFB Watch List:

#1 Club Kid 8.37

#13 The Dreamed Adventure 6.94

#15 The Black Ball 6.91

#24 Avedon 6.50

#31 Clarissa 6.43

MTFB Watch list films that may have taken a hit:

#40 Fatherland 6.15

#42 Paper Tiger 6.15

#43 Hope 6.14

Off the top 50 grid so...you know...

Moulin 5.73

Gentle Monster 4.66

Sheep in the Box 4.53

Parallel Tales 4.22

The Unknown 4.14

Draw your own conclusions...the first official "Ten Bets" for TFF #53 drops on June18th.

More on Thursday!

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SPECIAL SATURDAY POST: FINAL CRITICAL CHECK-IN BEFORE CANNES AWARDS

FINAL CRITICAL CHECK-IN BEFORE CANNES AWARDS

Updated as of this morning at 10:30 am (EST) for all 22 Palme competition tiles

IONCINEMA (5 point scale)

1) Fatherland 3.7

1) Fjord 3.7

1) Coward 3.7

4) Minotaur 3.5

5) A Man of His Time 3.4

5) The Man I Love 3.4

7) All of a Sudden 3.3

8) Paper Tiger 3.2

8) The Beloved 3.2

10) Hope 3.2

11) Naji Notes 2.8

11) The Black Ball 2.8

11) A Woman's Life 2.8

14) Bitter Christmas 2.7

14) Moulin 2.7

16) Gentle Monster 2.6

16) Another Day 2.6

18) The Unknown 2.4

18) Parallel Tales 2.4

20) Sheep in the Box 2.2

Note: Ioncinema did not have ratings this morning for The Dreamed Adventure or The Birthday Party.

SCREEN DAILY (4 point scale)

1) Fatherland 3.3

2) Minotaur 3.2

3) All of a Sudden 3.1

3) The Dreamed Adventure 3.1

5) Paper Tiger 2.8

5) A Man of His Time 2.8

5) Hope 2.8

8) Fjord 2.5

8) Naji Notes 2.5

10) The Man I Love 2.4

11) Bitter Christmas 2.2

12) The Black Ball 2.1

13) Coward 2.0

13) The Beloved 2.0

15) A Woman's Life 1.9

15) Moulin 1.9

15)The Unknown 1.9

18) Gentle Monster 1.8

19) Another Day 1.7

19) Parallel Lives 1.7

21) Sheep in the Box 1.3

22) The Birthday Party 1.1

INTERNATIONAL CINEPHILE SOCIETY (4 point scale)

1) Paper Tiger 3.69

2) Fatherland 3.58

2) A Man of His Time 3.54

4) The Man I Love 3.50

5) All of a Sudden 3.38

6) Minotaur 3.23

7) The Unknown 3.19

8)The Dreamed Adventure 3.05

9) Coward 3.00

9) Fjord 3.00

11) Bitter Christmas 2.96

12) Moulin 2.75

13) Hope 2.71

14) A Woman's Life 2.64

15) Naji Notes 2.62

16) The Birthday Party 2.55

17) The Beloved 2.54

18) Gentle Monster 2.45

18) Another Day 2.45

20) The Black Ball 2.23

21) Sheep in the Box 2.04

22) Parallel Tales 1.69

CANNES-RATINGS.ORG (10 point scale)

1) Bitter Christmas 7.46

2) Coward 7.43

3) All of a Sudden 7.36

4) Minotaur 6.99

5) The Black Ball 6.94

6) The Dreamed Adventure 6.72

7) Fjord 6.64

8) The Beloved 6.49

9) A Man of His Time 6.4

10) Another Day 6.23

11) Paper Tiger 6.14

12) Hope 6.09

13) Fatherland 6.08

14) A Woman's Life 5.56

15) Moulin 5.35

16) The Man I Love 5.28

17) Naji Notes 6.27

18) Gentle Monster 4.73

19) Sheep in the Box 4.44

20) Parallel Tales 4.17

21) The Unknown 4.13

22) The Birthday Party 3.99

and the MTFB "touch" the combination from all four sources.

1) Fatherland 13.62

2)  All of a Sudden 13.46

3) Minotaur 13.45

4) A Man of His Time 12.94

5) Paper Tiger 12.76

6) The Dreamed Adventure 12.68

7) Fjord 12.52

8) Coward 12.42

9) The Man I Love 11.94

10) Hope 11.76

11) Bitter Christmas 11.59

12) The Beloved 10.99

13) The Black Ball 10.60

14) Naji Notes 10.56

15) A Woman's Life 10.12

16) Moulin 10.03

17) Another Day 9.87

18) The Unknown 9.56

19) Gentle Monster 9.22

20) Parallel Tales 7.88

21) Sheep in the Box 7.76

22) The Birthday Party 5.65

The Kalshi line for the Plame d'Or as of 10:30am (EST): Minotaur, All of a Sudden, Fatherland.  Big spike for Minotaur in the past few hours.

SPECIAL FRIDAY UPDATE: CANNES AND THE CRITICS

SPECIAL FRIDAY UPDATE: CANNES AND THE CRITICS

With the awards now only hours away in France. MTFB is updating our window on the critical response there.

Additional titles have screened and continued adding of critics' responses puts us with 12 films we're including in our analysis of what's what at Cannes

Here's the rundown on each film from each critical accumulator I'm following: Ioncinema, Screen Daily, The International Cinephile Society and Cannes-ratings.org.

IONCINEMA (5 point scale)

1) Fatherland 3.7

1) Fjord 3.7

1) Coward 3.7

4) Minotaur 3.5

5) A Man of His Time 3.4

5) The Man I Love 3.4

7) All of a Sudden 3.3

8) Paper Tiger 3.2

8) The Beloved 3.2

10) Hope 3.2

11) Bitter Christmas 3.0

12) The Black Ball 2.8

SCREEN DAILY (4 point scale)

1) Fatherland 3.3

2) Minotaur 3.2

3) All of a Sudden 3.1

4) Paper Tiger 2.8

4) Hope 2.8

4) A Man of His Time 2.8

7) Fjord 2.5

8) Bitter Christmas 2.2

9) The Man I Love 2.1

9) The Black Ball 2.8

11)Coward 2.0

11) The Beloved 2.0

INTERNATIONAL CINEPHILE SOCIETY (4 point scale)

1) Paper Tiger 3.69

2) Fatherland 3.54

2) A Man of His Time 3.54

4) The Man I Love 3.50

5) All of a Sudden 3.38

6) Minotaur 3.23

7) Coward 3.06

8) Bitter Christmas 3.00

9) Fjord 2.96

10) Hope 2.71

11) The Beloved 2.54

12) The Black Ball 2.05

CANNES-RATINGS.ORG (10 point scale)

1) The Black Ball 8.62

2) Coward 7.80

3) Bitter Christmas 7.48

4) All of a Sudden 7.27

5) Minotaur 7.00

6) Fjord 6.81

7) The Beloved 6.49

8) Hope 6.37

9) A Man of His Time 6.33

10) Fatherland 6.12

11) Paper Tiger 6.07

12) The Man I Love 5.44

and the MTFB "touch" the combination from all four sources*.

1) Fatherland 13.60

2) Minotaur 13.42

2)  All of a Sudden 13.42

4) A Man of His Time 12.91

5) Paper Tiger 12.73

6) Coward 12.66

7) Fjord 12.57

8) Bitter Christmas 11.94

9) Hope 11.90

10) The Man I Love 11.72

11) The Black Ball 11.26

12) The Beloved 10.99

* Ratings have been balanced for each source.

Finally the Kalshi line this morning for the Palme d'Or have All of a Sudden out front with The Black Ball at #2 and Fatherland at #3.

The critics are all over the place with various groups placing films at wildly divergent spots within this top 12.  Look again at the combined ratings with the addition of what spot they're at in each of the four groups.  It's crazily inconsistent:

1) Fatherland 13.60 [1-1-2-10]

2) Minotaur 13.42 [4-2-6-5]

2)  All of a Sudden 13.42 [7-3-5-4]

4) A Man of His Time 12.91 [5-4-2-9]

5) Paper Tiger 12.73 [8-4-1-11]

6) Coward 12.66 [1-11-7-2]

7) Fjord 12.57 [1-7-9-6]

8) Bitter Christmas 11.94 [11-8-8-3]

9) Hope 11.90 [10-4-10-8]

10) The Man I Love 11.72 [5-9-4-12]

11) The Black Ball 11.26 [12-9-12-1]

12) The Beloved 10.99 [8-11-11-7]

My gut leans toward All of a Sudden.

A Tough week for Farhadi (Parallel Tales), Kruetzer (Gentle Monster), Kore-eda (Sheep in the Box), Harari (The Unknown) and Nemes (Moulin).

Source links:

Ioncinema

https://www.ioncinema.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/2026-cannes-grid-bitter-christmas.jpg

Screen Daily

https://www.screendaily.com/cannes-jury-grid

International Cinephile Society

https://icsfilm.org/cannes-ics-grid/cannes-2026-ics-press-industry-panel/

Cannes-ratings.org

https://cannes-ratings.org/

Cannes Continues / Some Buzz from Eisenberg / Mike Leigh Has a Title

 CANNES CONTINUES

The 79th Cannes Film Fest has passed its halfway mark and is barreling toward its conclusion this weekend. Taking a look at the metrics from Screen Daily, Ioncinema and Cannes-ratings.org, here are the films that seem to be at the forefront critically (*** indicates that the film is on my TFF watch list):

From Screen Daily (films in Palme competition with a better than 2.5 rating on a four point scale):

1) Fatherland 3.3***

2) All of a Sudden 3.1***

3) Paper Tiger 2.8***

3) Hope 2.8***

5) Naji Notes 2.5

The complete Screen Daily chart is linked here.

https://edition.pagesuite-professional.co.uk/html5/reader/production/default.aspx?pubname=&edid=7d45952f-7ff1-4ba7-b98c-78b6cf24da1e

From Ioncinema (films in Palme competition with a better than 3.0 rating on a five point scale):

1) Fatherland 3.7***

2) Fjord 3.5***

3) All of a Sudden 3.3***

4) Paper Tiger 3.2***

4) The Beloved 3.2

6) Hope 3.1***

The complete Ioncinema grid is linked here.

https://www.ioncinema.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/2026-cannes-grid-fjord.jpg

From Cannes-ratings.org (films in Palme competition with a better than 7.0 rating on a 10 point scale and a minimum of 8 reviews):

1) Fjord 7.81***

2) Bitter Christmas 7.53***

3) All of a Sudden 7.24***

3) The Beloved 7.24

Of special note is the hugely favorable critical reception to Club Kid from the Un Certain Regard section at Cannes.  It has a stellar 8.43 rating to lead all films in any section of the fest.  News broke on Tuesday that the film had been picked up for U.S. distribution by A24 after a bidding war that included: Netflix, Searchlight, Focus Features and MUBI according to this story from Variety.

The critical reception, the players vying for the film and the ultimate winning bid is enough to make me pay attention to it as a possible TFF selection.   Stay tuned.

Club Kid is a first feature for director/writer Jordan Firstman. .  The IMDb description is:

"A washed-up New York party promoter is forced to turn his life around when an unexpected visitor arrives."

The complete set of ratings from Cannes-ratins.org is linked here.

https://cannes-ratings.org/

According to Kalshi  (as of yesterday), Minotaur has the best odds to win the Palme followed by All of a Sudden and Fatherland.

SOME BUZZ FOR EISENBERG

Spooking around the interwebs yesterday I came across the news that what has been referred to as "The Untitled Jesse Eisenberg Musical Comedy now has an actual title: No One Cares.  It also seems that the film has been screened at Cannes and it seems that the screening went well.  So says World of Reel. 

WOR describes the film as follows:

"Starring Julianne Moore and Paul Giamatti, with Eisenberg also appearing briefly, “No One Cares” is set in “the high-stakes world of community theater,” and follows a shy woman (Moore) who is unexpectedly cast in a local production of an original musical."

Giamatti plays the director of the community theater production.  I think it sounds great and I have had it on my TFF #53 watch list for some time mostly because Eisenberg screened A Real Pain at TFF in 2024.  That seemed to work out fairly well.  The film is being distributed by A24 which doesn't hurt.  Additionally WOR writes:

"A24 is positioning the film for a fall premiere, potentially at the Telluride Film Festival and then at the Toronto International Film Festival. An Oscar campaign will likely be mounted for all key players involved."

MIKE LEIGH HAS A TITLE

Another "Untitled Project" has an actual title and that's the next film from director Mike Leigh.  The name: Tender Loving Care.  Past that we know almost nothing about the project.  You can likely glean a bit of info from what IMDb still lists as "Untitled 2025 Mike Leigh Project"  which we assume is the same thing as the newly christened Tender Loving Care.

That IMDb info is linked here.

https://pro.imdb.com/title/tt35638092/details

The IMDb entry reveals that Bleeker Street is the U.S. distributor.

Considering Leigh's frequent stops at TFF over the years (Secrets and Lies, Happy-Go-Lucky, Another Year and others) you have to believe there's a decent chance that if it's ready, Tender Loving Care has a decent shot to play TFF #53.

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Early Returns from Cannes / Cousins New Doc Gets Distribution / Pics for Gentle Monster

EARLY RETURNS FROM CANNES

Though we're only through the first few days of the Cannes International Film Festival, we're already seeing the emergence of some potential prize-winners for the fest.  Here's the early version of the Screen Daily panel of critics:

SCREEN DAILY

As you can see the early films making a mark here are Pawlikowskis' Fatherland and Hamaguchi's all of a Sudden.  Both films have been fairly consistently on the various lists I have posted since the Oscar ceremony and before.  Meanwhile. Ioncinema's chart echoes the status of both Father land and All of a Sudden:

Meanwhile, we're awaiting a sufficient number of reviews to be accumulated at Cannes-ratings.org to truly make any assumption regarding where films are truly standing withe regard to that metric.

Couple of other notes here.  Both Farhadi's Parallel Tales, Kore-eda's Sheep in a Box and Kruetzer's Gentle Monster seem on shaky ground as regards prizes at Cannes and  perhaps as contenders for TFF #53.

COUSINS NEW DOCUMENTARY (ABOUT DOCUMENTARIES) GETS DISTRIBUTION

Telluride regular Marc Cousins (The Story of Film, A Sudden Glimpse to Deeper Things among several others) has garnered distribution for his next project: The Story of Documentary Film)  Kino Lorber has nabbed the North American rights for the 16 part doc about docs.

The question as to its possible appearance at Telluride rises from its inclusion at Sundance earlier this year.  My best guess is that owing to Cousins frequent presence at TFF and his current position as a Resident Curator and his past position on the fest's Board of Advisors. as well as being a TFF Tributee in 2022...my bet is we get some of the 16 episodes.

The story reagrding the Kino Lober acquisition is linked here from Variety.

https://variety.com/2026/film/global/kino-lorber-mark-cousins-the-story-of-documentary-film-1236751389/

PICS FROM GENTLE MONSTER

Via The Playlist's 27 Most Anticipated Films from Cannes'

https://theplaylist.net/2026-cannes-film-festival-27-most-anticipated-films-20260511

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Cannes Is On / Awards Watch Oscar Predictions and TFF Clues / Bitter Christmas Teaser and Poster / Pics of Possibles from Cannes

CANNES IS ON

The 79th Cannes Film Festival is officially underway in France.  As is our habit here at MTFB, we will monitor the fest for the next two weeks looking at buzz, critical reception and ultimately prize winners to assess prospects for films to do the Cannes/Telluride Two Step.  

As I have often mentioned, the link between the two film fests is quite strong with an average of 7ish or so films playing each year, first at Cannes and then later at Telluride.

I also tend to look at Cannes-ratings.org, Ioncinema and Screen daily for collections of critical responses.  Last year nine films made the trans-Atlantic leap from France to Colorado.  Here's where they stood critically at Cannes based on the Cannes-ratings.org site's 10 point system:

Sentimental Value 8.04

It Was Just an Accident 7.75

Pillion 7.30

Nouvelle Vague 7.23

Urchin 7.15

The Secret Agent 6.99

Mastermind 6.29

A Private Life 5.90

The History of Sound 5.31

It's too early in the fest to start keeping tabs on the critical reactions but we may be able to begin to evaluate some of that in Monday's post.

AWARDS WATCH AND TFF CLUES

Erik Anderson has begun his annual updating list of predictions for Oscar '27 and I'm going through them for possible TFF titles.  among the films that he lists as Best Picture possibilities, these are the ones that look most Telluride-friendly:

Fjord

Wild Horse Nine

Fatherland

The Social Reckoning

All of a Sudden

Sense and Sensibility

Behemoth!

Being Heumann

Coward

Hope

Jack of Spades

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Saturn Return

Sweetsick

No One Cares (Jesse Eisenberg musical)

The complete set of predictions from Awards Watch are linked here.

https://awardswatch.com/2027-oscar-predictions-best-picture-and-best-director-may/

BITTER CHRISTMAS TEASER AND POSTER

Pedro Almodovar's Bitter Christmas is playing Cannes...and could be a Telluride player as well.  In conjunction with its bow at Cannes, there is a poster and a teaser. Here they be:

And the teaser from Sony Pictures Classics and YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PgPkSpuYpY&t=2s

PICS FROM POSSIBLES FROM CANNES:

***From Vanity Fair:  Paper Tiger:

***From The Hollywood Reporter: Coward:

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Cannes Director's Fortnight Announced / NEON Grabs Hope / Tony May Be Late

CANNES DIRECTOR'S FORTNIGHT ANNOUNCED

The Director's Fortnight Section of the 79th Cannes Film Festival has been announced.  That information was released on Tuesday.  Taking a quick look at the titles, the only film that jumps out as a possibility for TFF #53 is Kantemir Balagov's Butterfly Jam.  Balagov was at Telluride in 2029 with Beanpole.  I will say that Reed van Dyk's Atonement sounds interesting and might be worth keeping an eye on.

Butterfly Jam (Kantemir Balagov)***

9 Temples To Heaven (Sompot Chidgasornpongse)

Atonement (Reed Van Dyk)

Clarissa (Arie Esiri & Chuko Esiri)

Death has no master (Jorge Thielen Armand)

The Diary of a Chambermaid (Radu Jude)

Dora (July Jung)

La libertad doble (Lisandro Alonso)

Gabin (Maxence Voiseux)

I See Buildings Fall Like Lightning (Clio Barnard)

Low Expectations (Eivind Landsvik)

Once Upon A Time In Harlem (David Greaves)

La Perra (Dominga Sotomayor)

Shana (Lila Pinell)

Thanks for Coming (Merci d’être venu) (Alain Cavalier)

l’Espèce Explosive (Sarah Arnold)

Viva Carmen (Sebastian Laundenbach)

We Are Aliens (Kohei Kadowaki)

Le Vertige (Quentin Dupieux)

NEOIN GRABS HOPE

Reports that distributor NEON, which has a run of six straight films winning Cannes' Palme d'Or, has picked up U.S. distribution for Na Hong-jon's Hope.  The film stars Michael Fassbender and Alicia Vikander.  The acquisition makes me think that NEON thinks it could be a player when awards are handed out at the of Cannes.  That's enough to make me think it might be a consideration for TFF.

The IMDb's description goes like this:

"A mysterious discovery is made on the outskirts of the remote harbor town. The residents find themselves in a desperate fight for survival against something they have never encountered before."

NEON's Palme run has included: Parasite, Titane, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, Anora and It Was Just an Accident.  All but Titane and Triangle of Sadness subsequently played at Telluride.

TONY MAY BE LATE

I have had Matt Johnson's Tony on the periphery of my lists of "maybe" films for TFF #53 but I might have to re-calculate as World of Reel reports that the film is headed for reshoots beginning as early as next week.

Tony is based on a real episode from the life of legendary chef Anthony Bourdain.  Bourdain os being played by "The Holdovers" breakout Dominic Sessa.  Plans apparently are for the film to be available for fall festival time even with the additional filming schedule to take place now.

The complete World of Reel article is linked here.

https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2026/4/12/a24s-tony-matt-johnsons-anthony-bourdain-biopic-heads-to-reshoots-this-month

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Cannes Extended / Digger Teaser / Peter Asher Trailer

CANNES EXTENDED

We know that Cannes has announced a good deal of their lineup and in MTFB's last post, we looked at a number of those films that have already been announced as possible players for TFF #53.  But there are some films still left to be unveiled for Cannes and that's what we're focusing on today.

Initially, James Gray's Paper Tiger and Werner Herzog's Bucking Fastard are both probably going to be added to the lineup.  Multiple sources have been reporting that over the weekend.  Both films would be possible candidates for Telluride and that's true regardless of whether they chosen for Cannes inclusion.

The best intell right now suggests that Paper Tiger would likely be added to the Palme d'Or competition slate and that Herzog's film may appear in the Cannes Premieres section.

Additionally, there is some reporting that a couple of TFF #53 film possibilities may be the Director's Fortnight portion of the fest.  I'm referring to Kantemir Balagov's Butterfly Jam and Hirokazu Kore-eda's Look Back.  Kore-eda is already set for the Palme competition lineup with Sheep in the Box.

Here are links to a number of sources regarding adding titles to Cannes:

Awards Watch's Erik Anderson.

World of Reel

World of Reel-Bucking Fastard

World of Reel-Director's Fortnight

DIGGER TEASER

Thanks to Alex Billington and First Showing, I was reminded that we have a teaser for Alejandro Inarritu's Digger from Warner Brothers.  Here that is from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rd21PhsDHww

PETER ASHER TRAILER

And just out, a trailer for the Peter Asher documentary that played TFF #52.  Everywhere Man: The Life and times of Peter Asher is from directors Daniel Geller and Diana Goldfine.  It will be in theaters on June 19th.  Here's the trailer from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIpHwQ94WvY

Here's the poster also:

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Cannes Announces / Photos from Cannes' Selections

CANNES ANNOUNCES

The field of films for the 79th Cannes Film Festival have been announced.  This is important because history tells us that it's highly likely that 6-8 of these films (mostly from the Palme d'Or competition category) will be selected/invited to play at TFF #53 this fall.  Here, from Next Best Picture, are the fils that were announced this morning (films that I think have are the most likely for Telluride are indictaed with ***):

​COMPETITION

"The Electric Kiss" (dir. Pierre Salvadori) Opening Night film.

“All Of A Sudden” (dir. Ryusuke Hamaguchi)***

“The Beloved” (dir. Rodrigo Sorogoyen)

“Bitter Christmas” (dir. Pedro Almodóvar)***

“The Black Ball” (dir. Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi)

“Coward” (dir. Lukas Dhont)***

“The Dreamed Adventure” (dir. Valeska Grisebac)

“Fatherland” (dir. Pawel Pawlikowski)*** (previously titled 1949)

“Fjord” (dir Cristian Mungiu)***

“Garance” (dir. Jeanne Herry)

“Gentle Monster” (dir. Marie Kreutzer)***

“Hope” (dir. Na Hong-Jin)

“The Man I Love” (dir. Ira Sachs)

“Minotaur” (dir. Andrey Zvyagintsev)***

“Moulin” (dir. Laszlo Nemes)***

“Nagi Notes” (dir. Kôji Fukada)

“Notre Salut” (dir. Emmanuel Marre)

“Parallel Stories” (dir. Asghar Farhadi)***

“Sheep in the Box” (dir. Hirokazu Kore-eda)***

“Stories Of The Night” (dir. Lea Mysius)

“The Unknown” (dir. Arthur Harari)***

“A Woman’s Life” (dir. Charline Bourgeois-Taquet)

UN CERTAIN REGARD

“Club Kid” (dir. Jordan Firstman)

“Congo Boy” (dir. Rafiki Fariala)

“Elephants in the Fog” (dir. Abinash Bikram Shah)

“Everytime” (dir. Sandra Wollner)

“I Am Always Your Maternal Animal” (dir. Valentina Maurel)

“I’ll Be Gone in June” (dir. Katharina Rivilis)

“Le Corset” (dir. Louis Clichy)

“The Meltdown” (dir. Manuela Martelli)

“Strawberries” (dir. Laïla Marrakchi)

“Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma” (dir. Jane Schoenbrun)

“Yesterday the Eye Didn’t Sleep” (dir. Rakan Mayasi)

OUT OF COMPETITION

“De Gaulle: L’Age de Fer” (dir. Antonin Baudry)

“Diamond” (dir. Andy Garcia)

“The Electric Kiss” (dir. Pierre Salvadori)

“Her Private Hell” (dir. Nicolas Winding Refn)

“Karma” (dir. Guillaume Canet)

“L’Abandon” (dir. Vincent Garenq)

“L’Objet Du Delit” (dir. Agnes Jaoui)

MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS

“Colony” (dir. Yeon Sang-ho)

“Full Phil” (dir. Quentin Dupieux)

“Jim Queen and the Quest for Chloroqueer” (dir. Nicolas Athane and Marco Nguyen)

“Roma Elastica” (dir. Bertrand Mandico)

“Sanguine” (dir. Marion Le Coroller)

SPECIAL SCREENINGS

“Avedon” (dir. Ron Howard)

“John Lennon: The Last Interview” (dir. Steven Soderbergh)

“Les Matins  Merveilleux” (dir. Avril Besson)

“Les Survivants du Che” (dir. Christophe Réveille)

CANNES PREMIERE

“Heimsuchung” (dir. Volker Schlondorff)***

“Kokurojo: The Samurai and the Prisoner” (dir. Kiyoshi Kurosawa)

“Propeller One-Way Night Coach” (dir. John Travolta)

“The Third Night” (dir. Daniel Auteuil)

PHOTOS FROM CANNES' SELECTIONS

COWARD

FATHERLAND (1949)

VISITATION

FJORD

ALL OF A SUDDEN

MINOTAUR

THE UNKNOWN

According to Cannes head Thierry Fremaux per Next Best Picture, the lineup is 95% complete so other films will be added in the coming days.  So, films like Herzog' Bucking Fastard and Gray's Paper Tiger could still have their World Premiere next month in France.

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Now...Down to Business / Latest Cannes Speculation from World of Reel

NOW ...DOWN TO BUSINESS

Oscar has come a gone...finally.  Lot's of discourse now about the Oscar season being too long this year.  I kind of have to agree.

MTFB is ready to move on to the primary effort for this space...noodling possible titles for TFF #53.  That process has been lightly touched on since the turn of the calendar from 2025 to 2026 with a couple of looks at various "Most Anticipated" list of film for this year.  We have also taken a snapshot of possible Cannes titles as the venerable French fest frequently is represented at Telluride often with six to eight titles.

As we move into this phase I have found looking at the "Too Early" Oscar predictions for the year to be useful as a predicting tool.  I checked last year and that Oscar spec yielded up to seven films that eventually ended up on the TFF #52 lineup.  We'll also continue to monitor the potential Cannes field until that announcement comes on April 9th.  The fest itself will run May 12-23.

LATEST CANNES SPECULATION FROM WORLD OF REEL

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel keeps a really good eye on the buzz concerning which films will premiere as part of the Cannes Film Festival.  That's good for us as, on average, six to eight Cannes titles traditionally make their way to Telluride.

Consequently, we put our ear to the ground to his latest Cannes speculation piece posted on March 11th.

From his various sections, here are what seem to me the most probable candidates to play both Cannes and then T-ride:

Predicted Cannes Competition titles that might play TFF #53:

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar

Fjord/Mungiu

Jack of Spades/Coen

Minotaur/Zvyaginstev

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi

Parallel Tales/Farhadi

Coward/Dhont

1949/Pawlikowski

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda

Butterfly Jam/Bagalov

"Possibilities"

The Long Winter/Haigh

Let Love In/Van Groeningen

Bucking Fastards/Herzog

"French Contenders"

Moulin/Nemes

Among titles that Ruimy says are now "unlikely: for Cannes but that could still make a Telluride play:

Paper Tiger/Gray

The Way of the Wind/Malick

Untitled Mike Leigh Film

Digger/Inarritu

The complete World of Reel list is here.

I'll take a look at early Oscar predictions in Monday's post.

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Spying on Cannes / Visitations: Hamnet

SPYING ON CANNES 

We continue to be in the "in-between times".  That is to say between the Oscar nomination announcement and the actual Oscars...also the announcement of the lineup for the Cannes Film Festival.  So one of the things I like to do here at MTFB is try to keep an eye on the speculation about what will play at Cannes.  As frequent readers know, the overlap between films that screen in May in France and then Labor Day at Telluride is usually pronounced.

So, today we take our annual first look at the Cannes projection list from Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel.  Form that list of films, here are what seem to me the most likely TFF #53 players:

Jack of Spades/J. Coen

Paper Tiger/Gray

The Way of the Wind/Malick

Mintaul/Zvyagnistev

Parallel Tales/Farhadi

Coward/Dhont

1949/Pawlikowski

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda

Butterfly Jam/Balagov

The Basics of Philosophy/Schrader

Untitled Mike Leigh/Leigh

On Land and Sea/Palmason

The Long Winter/Haigh

Bucking Fastard/Herzog

At the Sea/Mundruczo

  

And among possible French films at Cannes:

If Love Should Die/Hansen-Love

Moulin/Nemes

Ruimy's complete list is linked here.

VISITATIONS: HAMNET

Zhao, Spielberg and Mendes on Hamnet.

Behind the Scenes of Hamnet from Collider.

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