MTFB's Initial Oscar Nomination Predictions: Lead Acting / TFF #53 Dominates Awards at Middleburg Fest

 MTFB'S INITIAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICITIONS: LEAD ACTING

MTFB starts out its Oscar nomnation predicitions for the 2027 awards with our initial predix for Best Actress and Actor. TFF #53 artists are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Julianne Moore/The Debut

2) Sandra Huller/Rose

3) Inde Naverrette/Obsession

4) Olivia Wilde/The Invite

5) Renee Reinsve/Fjord

Others: Virginia Efira/All of a Sudden, Carrie Coon/The Liberation, Marion Bailey/Tender Loving Care.

BEST ACTOR

1) Andrew Scott/Elsinore

2) John Malkovich/Wild Horse Nine

3) Matt Damon/The Odyssey

4) John Turturro/The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

5) Ryan Gosling/Project Hail MarBest y

Others:Tom Cruise/Digger, Pedro Pascal/Behemoth!, Anthony Ippolito/I Play Rocky.

TFF #53 DOMINATES AWARDS AT MIDDLEBURG FEST

The Middleburg Film Fest ran Oct. 15-18th.  at its comclusion the fest announced winners of its annual Audience Awards.  

For Best Narrative, TFF #53 films took the top three spots;  

2nd Runnerup: Wild Horse Nine

1st Runnerup: Elsinore

Winner: The Debut

Best International Film; La Bola Negra

Best Documentary: 14th

The awards were reported by The Contending's Joey Moser and and his entire article can be found here.

https://thecontending.com/middleburg-awards/

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Who's Got What? Distributors-Sony Pictures Classics / Whispers: Elsinore??? / The Debut of The Debut?

 WHO'S GOT WHAT? DISTRIBUTORS-SONY PICTURES CLASSICS

Here's the third installment for 2026 for taking a look at distribution companies which have had a strong relationship with the Telluride Film Festival.  Today we gaze at Sony Pictures Classics (SPC) which likely has the longest connection to the fest overall.  Though SPC comes in as the third most represented distributor over the last five years with 13 films appearing, the SPC/TFF connection goes back many more fests.  SPC is always a strong bet to have a film or films at TFF.

Here's the five year track record:

2021: The Duke, Julia

2022: Living, One Fine Morning, The Return of Tanya Tucker, Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams.

2023: Daddio, The Teachers' Lounge, They Shot the Piano Player.

2024: Don't Let's Go to the Dog's Tonight, The Outrun.

2025: Blue Moon, A Private Life

It's solid five year run averaging between two and three films per year,

Now, here's what's in the SPC treasure chest for a possible TFF #53 spot and my current guess about each film's probability of playing:

(If it's ready) The Statement/McCarthy  50%

Bunker 50%

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar 50%

Rehearsals for a Revolution/Ahangarani 30%

Iron Boy/Clichy 25%

[Revised 7-13-26]

WHISPERS: ELSINORE???

Andrew Scott at TFF #52 (Getty Images)

Maybe keep an eye out for Elsinore starring Andrew Scott.  The film is being shopped for U.S. distribution with a deal expected "soon".

The logline: A powerful, deeply moving and inspiring story of the actor Ian Charleson who faced incredible odds while preparing to give the performance of his life in Hamlet at the National Theatre in London.

Scott is starring as Charleson who is probably best known to Americans for playing Eric Liddell in Chariots of Fire.

Anyway, World of Reel and The Playlist reported in the last few days that it could be a surprise entry at the end of this year into the Oscar race.  

An intriguing note from The Playlist story:  Ellwood claims the film has been accepted by multiple film fests writing:

"This (Elsinore) is also a movie that, like “Artificial,” has gotten into every festival it has screened for."

Of course we have no way of knowing which and how many fests are being referenced but it certainly doesn't disqualify the possibility of T-ride.

Scott, who attended TFF last year with Richard Linklater's Blue Moon, could return.  

Keep an ear to the ground regarding who picks up distribution for the film.

THE DEBUT OF THE DEBUT?

I think everyone who reads this space with any frequency has figured out that I'm really excited about Jesse Eisenberg's The Debut.  

Now comes news that the film has been confirmed by Eisenberg to be premiering at a "fall film festival".  That news comes via an interview with Screen Daily as Eisenberg is at the Karlovy Film Fest to receive its President's Award.

From Screen Daily/Screen International's X account:

Sooo...not a lock for Telluride, but not ruling it out either.

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MTFB Oscar Update: International, Documentary and Animated Features and Song / What the Experts Are Saying / Interviews and Profiles: Scott, Mescal, Glazer and More

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: INTERNATIONAL, DOCUMENTARY,  ANIMEATED FEATURES AND SONG

In this post I'm continuing my first "educated" set of predictions for who/what will win on Oscar night, March 10th.  The focus for this post is initial projections for the International. Documentary, and Animated Feature races as well Best Original Song.  As always TFF films are in Bold.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) The Zone of Interest/United Kingdom

2) Society of the Snow/Spain

3) The Teachers' Lounge/Germany

4) Perfect Days/Japan

5) Io Capitano/Italy

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) 20 Days in Mariupol

2) Bobi Wine: The People's President

3) Four Daughters

4) The Eternal Memory

5) To Kill a Tiger

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse

2) The Boy and the Heron

3) Elemental

4) Nimona

5) Robot Dreams

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) What Was I Made For?/Barbie

2) I'm Just Ken/Barbie

3) It Never Went Away/American Symphony

4) Whazhazhe/Killers of the Flower Moon

5) The Fire Inside/Flamin' Hot

Comment: Of the five TFF nominees from this group of categories only The Zone of Interest looks like a winner.  

At the moment the closest of these four categories looks to be Original Song where the two tunes from Barbie appear to be slugging it out.  It does beg the question of whether the two songs might split enough votes that something else sneaks in for the win.

WHAT THE EXPERTS ARE SAYING

I've decided for each post between now and the Oscars to share where some of the top Oscarologists are in terms of predicting the 23 category winners. Today I'm sharing the publicly posted current predictions from Variety's Clayton Davis and The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg.  as with my predictions above, TFF films are in Bold.

From Clayton Davis...the current predictions have Oppenheimer winning eight Oscars.

Oppenheimer (8): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score and Sound.

The Holdovers (2): Best Actor and Supporting Actress.

Poor Things (2): Production Design and Costumes.

Single wins for:

Killers of the Flower Moon: Best Actress.

Barbie: Best Song (What Was I Made For?)

Anatomy of a Fall: Best Original Screenplay.

The Zone of Interest: Best International Feature.

Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse: Best Animated Feature.

20 Days in Mariupol: Best Documentary Feature.

Maestro: Best Makeup/Hair.

The Creator: Best Visual Effects.

The Last Repair Shop: Best Documentary Short.

Letter to a Pig: Best Animated Short.

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar: Best Live Action Short.

If Clayton nails it, TFF films snag seven Oscar wins.

Here's the link to Clayton's predictions.

Meanwhile, Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter is currently predicting the same category wins for Oppenheimer that Davis has.

Oppenheimer (8): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay. Cinematography, Editing, Score and Sound.

The Holdovers (3): Best Actor, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay.

Barbie (3): Costumes, Song (What Was I Made For?), and Production Design.

Single wins for:

Poor Things: Best Actress.

The Zone of Interest: Best International Feature.

Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse: Best Animated Feature.

Bobi Wine: The People's President: Best Documentary Feature.

Maestro: Best Makeup/Hair.

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3: Best Visual Effects.

War Is Over: Best Animated Short.

The ABC's of Book Burning: Best Documentary Short.

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar: Best Live Action Short.

If Feinberg is 100% accurate, TFF films earn six Oscar wins.

Here's the link to Scott's predictions.

INETRVIEWS AND PROFILES: 

Behind the scenes of Poor Things from On the red Carpet via YouTube.

Composer Jerskin Fendrix for Poor Things from Gold Derby.

Writer/Director Jonathan Glazer behind the scenes of The Zone of Interest from A24 on X.

Producer James Wilson on The Zone of Interest from Gold Derby.

Andrew Scott and Paul Mescal for All of Us Strangers from Pop Culture Confidential.

Writer/Director Lila Aviles for Totem from The Los Angeles Times.

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MTFB Update: Screenplays Plus Animated Feature and Production Design / New York Film Critics Online and TFF / Interviews and Profiles: Stone, Bening, Scott and More

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS PLUS ANIMATED FEATURE AND PRODUCTION DESIGN

Here's your Oscar Update for today's post.  This is a check on predicted nominees for the Screenplay categories.  They were last posted here on Dec. 4th.  Previous positions on the MTFB Oscar Update Chart are listed to the right in parentheses.  I have also included my first predictions for Best Animated Feature and Production Design.  As always TFF films are Bold.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Holdovers (1)

2) Barbie (2)

3) Past Lives (3)

4) Anatomy of a Fall (5)

5) Maestro (4)

Alternates: May December, Air, Saltburn.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) American Fiction (3)

3) Poor Things (2)

3) American Fiction (3)

4) Killers of the Flower Moon (4)

5) All of Us Strangers (5)

Alternates: The Zone of Interest, Are You There God, It's Me Margaret and The Color Purple. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

1) Spiderman: Across the Spiderverse

2) The Boy and the Heron

3) Elemental

4) Nimona

5) Wish

Alternates: Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem and Super Mario Bros. Movie.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Poor Things

2) Barbie

3) Oppenheimer

4) Killers of the Flower Moon

5) Maestro

Alternates: Asteroid City, The Color Purple and Napoleon

NEW YORK FILM CRTICS ONLINE AND TFF

The NYFCO announced their choices for the best film work of 2023 on Friday.  TFF was fairly well represented with three films making their Top Ten of the Year list: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers and Poor Things.  Those three films also earned some individual mention.

Anatomy of a Fall was named thrice for Best International Film, Best Actress for Sandra Huller and Best Screenplay.  The Holdover's Da'Vine Joy Randolph was named Best Supporting Actress while Poor Things' Mark Ruffalo earned honors as Best Supporting Actor.

Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer was named in four categories, the most of any film> Direction, Actor, Ensemble and Cinematography but not Best Picture which NYFCO awarded to Martin Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon.

The complete rundown of the NYFCO awards can be found here.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Emma Stone and Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things from Awards Radar.

Annette Bening on Nyad from Deadline.com.

Juliette Binoche for The Taste of Things from Next Best Picture.

Da'Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers from The Playlist.

Andrew Scott for All of Us Strangers from Indiewire.

Christian Friedel for The Zone of Interest from Indiewire.

Lenny Kravitz for Rustin from Awards Daily.

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Oscar Update: Lead Acting / Trailers: Poor Things, Nyad, Saltburn, Rustin / Interviews: Butler

OSCAR UPDATE: LEAD ACTING

Here's MTFB's first Oscar Update for the Lead Acting category since the original set of predictions On Sept. 25th..  Today I'm updating the Lead Acting categories.  As usual TFF #50 films are in Bold.  A film's previous position on the MTFB Oscar chart is listed in parentheses.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Emma Stone/Poor Things (2)

2) Lily Gladstone/Killers of the Flower Moon (1)

3) Carrie Mulligan/Maestro (3)

4) Margot Robbie/Barbie (-)

5) Annette Bening/Nyad (4)

Alternates: Sandra Huller/Anatomy of a Fall, Natalie Portman/May December and Fantasia Barrino/The Color Purple

BEST ACTOR

1) Cillian Murphy/Oppenheimer (1)

2) Bradley Cooper/Maestro (4)

3) Colman Domingo/Rustin (2)

4) Paul Giamatti/The Holdovers (5)

5) Leonardo DiCaprio/Killers of the Flower Moon (3)

Alternates: Jeffrey Wright/American Fiction, Andrew Scott/All of Us Strangers and Barry Keoghan/Saltburn.

Comment: Among the Best Actress category is still seems a death match between any of the top six women.  In the Best Actor category-a nice uptick for Cooper and Giamatti.

Oscar nominations will be announced on Jan. 23rd, 2024

TRAILERS: POOR THINGS, NYAD, SALTBURN, RUSTIN

Within a few hours of last Thursday's post distributors/producers for four TFF #50 films released teaser/trailers for their films.  I honestly thought about updating Thursday's post with them but that post was already lengthy.  So, ultimately I decided to post the trailers in today's regularly scheduled MTFB offering.  Here they are from YouTube:

POOR THINGS:

NYAD:

 

SALTBURN:

RUSTIN:

INTERVIEWS: BUTLER

Austin Butler on The Bikeriders from Entertainment Weekly (and Interview Magazine).

Austin Butler from Indiewire.

Austin Butler from The Hollywood Reporter.

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