Ten Bets for TFF #51 / Coppola and Megalopolis Get a Distributor / Blitz Is Seen / No Nightbitch at TFF

TEN BETS FOR TFF #51 

I've been doing the "Ten Bets" format as a way of predicting Telluride lineups for since 2011.  

Here's last year's first Ten Bets with the films that actually played TFF #50 in Bold.

1) The Holdovers/Payne

2) May December/Haynes

3) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

4) Monster/Kore-eda

5) (All of Us)Strangers/Haigh

6) El Conde/Larrain

7) Poor Things/Lanthimos

8) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet

9) The American Buffalo/Burns

10) The End/Oppenheimer

So 6 of 10.

In previous years the correct ratios were:

2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10
2018: 5/10

2019: 4/10

2020: No fest

2021: 8/10

2022: 6/10

2023: 6/10

That puts the average of correct picks on this first whirl at 5.8.

That being said, I feel less confidence about this year's first Ten Bets than maybe any other year.  Sooo... with great trepidation...here are 2024's first Ten Bets for TFF:

1) Anora/Sean Baker

2) The Seed of the Scared Fig/Mohammad Rasoulof

3) Emilia Perez/Jacques Audiard

4) The Room Next Door/Pedro Almodovar

5) Bird/Andrea Arnold

6) Maria/Pablo Larrain

7) Oh, Canada/Paul Schrader

8) The End/Joshua Oppenheimer

9) Queer/Luca Guadagnino

10) Conclave/Edward Berger

Other possibilities:

We Live in Time/Crowley

I'm Still Here/Salles

Parthenope/Sorrentino

In the Hand of Dante/Schnabel

Hard Truths/Leigh

The Piano Lesson/Washington

Untitled Noah Baumbach

Nickel Boys/Ross

Blitz/McQueen

Megalopolis/Coppola

Now we'll see how this all plays out.

COPPOLA AND MEGALOPOLIS GET A DISTRIBUTOR

Lionsgate has acquired Francis Ford Coppola's Megalopolis for U.S. distribution.  The film has been set for a Sept. 27th release date putting it in position to potentially play TFF and/or Toronto.  Lionsgate has had an occasional presence at Telluride over the years with their last appearance in 2022 with Living.  

So it appears that the possibility of a Telluride play is still open.

Here's that story from The Playlist.

BLITZ IS SEEN

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel reports that Steve McQueen's Blitz has been screened in front of real humans in New York and London.  So, at least some of the mystery about its existence has been removed. 

Now, none of this means that Blitz will play any festival but it also doesn't preclude that possibility that it could play T-ride.

I still think that Blitz World Premiering at the BFI/London Fest is the most likely scenario for the film.

Here's that story from WOR.

NO NIGHTBITCH AT TFF

The Toronto International Film Festival  announced their first set of selections for their 2024 edition this week and included on that list was Marielle Heller's Nightbitch.  MTFB readers saw that in my look at Searchlight films that it seemed like their most likely TFF possibility.  As Toronto has announced that the film will be a World Premiere that implies that TFF #50 is off the table.

This is the link to that story from Variety.

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Looking at Distributors: Searchlight / From Out of Left Field / More as The Bikeriders Rolls out

CHECKING THE DISTRBUTORS: SEARCHLIGHT

Searchlight (and before it, Fox Searchlight) has been a stalwart in the TFF Universe for many years.  My running list of films from them goes back to 2004 and includes five Oscar Best Picture winners and a slew of nominations:

2023: Poor Things, All of Us Strangers, The Last Repair Shop

2022: Empire of Light 

2021: The French Dispatch 

2020: Nomadland (Best Picture Oscar) 

2019: A Hidden Life 
2018: The Favourite, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, The Old Man and the Gun 
2017: The Shape of Water (Best Picture Oscar), Battle of the Sexes 
2016: No Show
2015: He Named Me Malala 
2014: Birdman (Best Picture Oscar), Wild 
2013: 12 Years a Slave (Best Picture Oscar) 
2012: No Show
2011: Shame, The Descendants 
2010: Never Let Me Go, 127 Hours, Black Swan 
2009: No Show
2008: Slumdog Millionaire (Best Picture Oscar) 
2007: Juno, The Savages
2006: The Last King of Scotland, The Namesake 
2005: Bee Season 
2004: Kinsey 

But as you can also see there have been years that Searchlight was not a presence at TFF: 2009, 2012 and 2016.  2024 might be one of those off years.

I've scoured what Searchlight has set for release and what films are in post-production and the films that are or could be ready and feel like something Telluride might be interested in are meager.  As a matter of fact, at the moment I can only find Marielle Heller's Nightbitch as Searchlight's only real player.

The film's pedigree sounds like a real TFF possibility: Heller was in T-ride in with Can You Ever Forgive Me? in 2018.  The film's star, Amy Adams was a tribute recipient in 2016 and Searchlight set the film's release for Dec. 6th.  But...

The film has been described as perhaps being too odd and difficult to promote.  Here's part of the plot summary listed at IMDb Pro:

"A woman, thrown into the stay-at-home routine of raising a toddler in the suburbs, slowly embraces the feral power deeply rooted in motherhood, as she becomes increasingly aware of the bizarre and undeniable signs that she may be turning into a dog."

See what I mean.  On the other hand, T-ride programmed Poor Things last year to great success.  So...maybe?

So I'm giving Nightbitch a 30% shot at TFF #51 and I suppose there is the weakest of possibilities that we might see Nate Parker's (The Birth of a Nation) Solitary.  I give it a 10% chance.

FROM OUT OF LEFT FIELD

So I was perusing Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel for this and that and came across this story that Jordan posted on Saturday headlined:

Gia Coppola's ‘The Last Showgirl' Aims for Fall Fests; Oscar Nominee, Pamela Anderson?

Intrigued, I opened the story up and read some very interesting speculation including these choice comments:

"Here’s another potential title for Venice/Telluride."

and

"Coppola’s last film, “Mainstream,” was part of the pandemic-afflicted 2020 edition of Venice, but I’m hearing this one’s a worthier film and, more importantly, is a major showcase for Anderson. It’s also very likely headed to Telluride — that fest’s director, Julie Huntsinger, hasn’t locked her lineup just yet, but “The Last Showgirl” is a major possibility."

Could it be true? Ruimy seems to think so.

Additionally Coppola brought Palo Alto to T-ride in 2013 and would have had Mainstream there in 2020 had the fest not been bagged due to Covid.

We'll have to keep an eye on this.

Here's WOR's full story.

MORE AS THE BIKERIDERS ROLLS OUT

Ahead of its release this week, here's more for Jeff Nichol's The Bikeriders, a TFF #50 alum:

Austin Butler form The Hollywood Reporter's X account.

Austin Butler and Norman Reedus from Car and Driver.

Jodi Comer from The Bikeriders film X account.

And a 60 second look at the film from PopCrave.

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Final Cannes Speculation / Amy Adams Film Back in the Game? / Janet Planet Trailer, Poster and Release Date

FINAL CANNES SPECULATION

All of the anticipation about what films will be selected for the 77th Cannes film Festival comes to a conclusion on Thursday when the bulk of the films that have been invited will be revealed.  The unveiling is set for 11:00 AM Paris time.  That should mean I'll have the skinny in Thursday morning's regularly scheduled post.  A quick note here, however, is that may mean that Thursday's post doesn't go up as early in the morning as it usually does.  

With that, here are the final two Cannes spec pieces that I'll pass along with my guesses from those lists which films seem most Telluride-ish.  From Indiewire and Ioncinema.

From Indiewire:

Bird- Dir: Andrea Arnold

The End- Dir: Joshua Oppenheimer

Juror #2- Dir: Clint Eastwood

Marcel and Mister Pagnol- Dir: Sylvain Chomet

Megalopolis- Dir: Francis Ford Coppola

Oh, Canada- Dir: Paul Schrader

Queer- Dir: Luca Guadagnino

Rumours- Dir: Guy Maddin

Parthenope- Dir: Paolo Sorrentino

The complete list from Indiewire is here.

And from Ioncinema:

Anora- Dir: Sean Baker

Bird- Dir: Andrea Arnold

Emilia Perez- Dir: Jacques Audiard

Hard Truths- Dir: Mike Leigh

Parthenope- Dir: Paolo Sorrentino

The End-  Dir: Joshua Oppenheimer

 

And here are three films that are included on Ioncinema's list and have been on others that I've not included previously on my guess list but...do have a slim possibility of a T-ride play"

The Shrouds- Dir: David Cronenberg

The Most Valuable Commodity- Dir: Francois Ozon

When Autumn Comes- Dir: Michel Hazanavicius

The Ioncinema list is here.

 Let's see what happens on Thursday!

AMY ADAMS FILM BACK IN THE GAME?

I had written off Marielle Heller's Nightbitch starring TFF tribute recipient Amy Adams (2016) last year amid reports that Searchlight was unsure what to do with the film.  I had included it in early TFF #50 speculation owing to Adams past tribute and that Heller had Can You Ever Forgive Me? at TFF 2018 and that film earned three Oscar nominations (Best Actress for Melissa McCarthy, Best Supporting Actor for Richard E. Grant and Best Adapted Screenplay for Jeff Whitty and Nicole Holofcener)  All that seemed like a confluence of factors that made for a solid case that we'd see it announced for the TFF #50 lineup.  But noop.

Now comes news that Searchlight has announced an awards friendly release date of  Dec.6th.  That makes me think that a TFF #51 play could be in the cards.

The hubbub last year was that the film sounds, well...weird.  The IMDb description is fairly innocuous:

"A woman pauses her career to be a stay-at-home mom, but soon her domesticity takes a surreal turn."

Left unsaid in that description is that the "surreal turn" is that the woman believes that she's turning into a dog.

What motivated Searchlight to finally decide to release the film in the awards window?  I have no real proof but I wonder if the response to Yorgos Lanthimos' Poor Things (also from Searchlight) convinced them that "weird" was okay?

Here's more of the lowdown from The Hollywood Reporter.

JANET PLANET TRAILER, POSTER AND RELEASE DATE

A24 has just released a trailer and poster for Annie Baker's Janet Planet which screened at TFF #50.  The film will be released on June 21st.  Here's the trailer from YouTube:

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Checking the Distributors: Searchlight / Anatomy of a Fall Trailer and News / A New Film to Consider

 CHECKING THE DISTRIBUTORS: SEARCHLIGHT

The fifth installment of Checking the Distributors looks at Searchlight (which used to be Fox Searchlight until Disney bought them).  Searchlight has had a long and distinguished presence at TFF over the years.  Here's a look back at the films that they have screened at TFF since 2004:

2022: Empire of Light 

2021: The French Dispatch 

2020: Nomadland (Best Picture Oscar) 

2019: A Hidden Life 
2018: The Favourite, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, The Old Man and the Gun 
2017: The Shape of Water (Best Picture Oscar), Battle of the Sexes 
2016: No Show
2015: He Named Me Malala 
2014: Birdman (Best Picture Oscar), Wild 
2013: 12 Years a Slave (Best Picture Oscar) 
2012: No Show
2011: Shame, The Descendants 
2010: Never Let Me Go, 127 Hours, Black Swan 
2009: No Show
2008: Slumdog Millionaire (Best Picture Oscar) 
2007: Juno, The Savages
2006: The Last King of Scotland, The Namesake 
2005: Bee Season 
2004: Kinsey 

That's 25 films over a span of 19 fests.  Five Best Picture Oscar winners:

Slumdog Millionaire 2009

12 Years a Slave 2014

Birdman 2015

The Shape of Water 2018

Nomadland 2021

 Plus a total of  81 other Oscar nominations in that time.

So you have to figure that Searchlight likely lands one or two films at TFF #50.  The question is which ones?

Four films seem to have the best chance:

Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos (release date is Sept. 8)

Strangers/Andrew Haigh (release date is TBA)

Nightbitch/Marielle Heller (release date is TBA)

Next Goal Wins/Taika Waititi (release date is Nov. 17)

Three of the four directors have been at Telluride previously.

Haigh twice with 45 Years in 2015 and Lean on Pete in 2017.

Lanthimos with The Favourite in 2018

Heller with Can You Ever Forgive Me? also in 2018.

Next Goal Wins has a really weird history between scrubbing Armie Hammer and replacing him with Will Arnett the film has been shuffled around to a number of different release dates and now Searchlight has landed it smack in awards season on the weekend before Thanksgiving.

Poor Things release date is a little odd as well coming right on the heels of both Venice and Telluride.  Venice closes on Sept. 9th.

Ultimately, here's where I start out rating their chances of playing T-ride:

Strangers 55%

Poor Things 45%

Next Goal Wins 25%

Nightbitch 10%***

***World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy reported this weekend that he has heard that Nightbitch will premiere at Toronto.

ANATOMY OF A FALL TRAILER AND NEWS

The Palme d'Or winning film, Justine Triet's Anatomy of a Fall has a new trailer out that coincides with its premiere in Paris on Wednesday.  The trailer isn't subtitled and has some English and some French spoken in it.  Still, it's a chance to get a sense of the prize winning film.  Here that is via YouTube:

In additional trailer news, apparently a trailer for Ethan Coen's Drive Away Dolls is screening ahead of Wes Anderson's Asteroid City.  I'm assuming its the same trailer screened at CinemaCon.  That should mean that we should see it fairly soon.

Meanwhile a Tweet from Ioncinema from earlier this month that I just ran across a couple of days ago suggests that NEON, which is distributing Anatomy of a Fall in the U.S. is aiming for a Telluride berth:

A NEW FILM TO CONSIDER

Photo via IMDb

Kate Winslet's new biopic about journalist Lee Miller is reportedly set to premiere at Venice.  It's a film that I have been keeping my eye on for some time but about which there has been little conversation as we get closer to lineup announcements for both Venice and Toronto.

A Venice premiere could also mean a play at TFF #50.  "Lee" is currently absent a distributor in the U.S.

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