Ten Bets #7 for TFF #52 / Is This Thing Off ? / Blue Moon Has a Trailer / The Secret Agent and Left-Handed Girl Get Dates

TEN BETS #7 FOR TFF #52

Four weeks from today we'll see the actual lineup for TFF #52.  Until then it's all speculation.  So, let's speculate.  But first, a recap of last week's Ten Bets:

1) Hamnet/Zhao

2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

3) Sentimental Value/Trier

4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

5) The Secret Agent/Filho

6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater

7) Tuner/Roher

8) Bugonia/Lanthimos

9) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

10) The History of Sound/Hermanus

Other possibilities: Blue Moon, The Young Mother's Home, The Love That Remains, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Die My Love, Anemone, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, A House of Dynamite, Orphan, Hand of Dante, Cover-Up.

With some new information over the last week, the new Ten Bets are so:

This week's new Ten Bets:

1) Hamnet/Zhao

2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

3) Sentimental Value/Trier

4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

5) The Secret Agent/Filho

6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater

7) Tuner/Roher

8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

9) The History of Sound/Hermanus

10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach

Other possibilities: Bugonia, Blue Moon, The Young Mother's Home, The Love That Remains, The Drama, Pillion, Left-Handed Girl, Die My Love, Anemone, At the Sea, Late Fame, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, Orphan, Hand of Dante, Cover-Up, Megadoc, No Other Choice, The Wizard of the Kremlin, Train Dreams.

Jay Kelly moves into the Ten Bets on the strength of some reporting earlier in the week.  It bumps Bugonia.  New additions to the "Possibles" include: Pillion, The Drama, At the sea, Late Fame, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Megadoc, No Other Choice, The wizard of the Kremlin and Train Dreams ( I know it played Sundance but maybe it'll be an exception like The Outrun last year).

IS THIS THING OFF?

It sure seems that way as the New York Film Festival announced yesterday that Bradley Cooper's Is This On? was announced as that fest's Closing Night film and will be a World Premiere which means it will not play Telluride or Toronto either for that matter.

It has been a film that I have had high hopes for vis-a-vis TFF #52 but, alas, Nope!

BLUE MOON HAS A TRAILER

Listed currently as a "Possibility" for TFF #52, Richard Linklater's Blue Moon is set for release  on Oct. 24th.  I've had Blue Moon in earlier iterations of the Ten Bets and still feel pretty good about its chances of making the lineup.

Anyway, Sony Pictures Classics released a trailer for the film on Tuesday.  here it is from YouTube:

I liked it.

THE SECRET AGENT AND LEFT-HANDED GIRL GET DATES

Kleber Mendonça Filho's The Secret Agent has been dated for U.S. release.  Neon has set a New York roll out for Nov. 26th followed by release in L.A. on Dec. 5th.  The Secret Agent was a big winner at Cannes gaining awards for Best Director and Best Actor among the films in competition for the Palme d'Or.  

Its description at IMDb is as follows:

In 1977, a technology expert flees from a mysterious past and returns to his hometown of Recife in search of peace. He soon realizes that the city is far from being the refuge he seeks.

Meanwhile...

Netflix announced yesterday that Shih-Ching Tsou's Left-Handed Girl has been dated for a Nov. 14th theatrical release allowing it to meet Academy Awards requirements for Oscar consideration should it be submitted.  The film played as a part of Cannes Critics Week and had a healthy Cannes-ratings.org average of 7.74 (8th best overall of all films that played in various sections of Cannes).  The film also picked up the Semaine Distribution Prize.

The film was produced, co-written and edited by Oscar winner Sean Baker (who won Oscars for each of those jobs for Anora last year).

Its IMDb description:

A single mother and her two daughters relocate to Taipei to open a night market stall, each navigating the challenges of adapting to their new environment while striving to maintain family unity.

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Distributor Monday #5 Searchlight / Venice Announces Opening Film...Does It Play Telluride?

 DISTRIBUTOR MONDAY #5: SEARCHLIGHT

Today's look at film distributors that have a fairly impressive track record at screening things at Telluride continues with Searchlight Films (formerly Fox Searchlight).  Over the nine years I looked back (and leaving out the Covid year of 2020) Searchlight has landed at least one at Telluride every year except 2016.

Over the years Searchlight has had a good deal of success when playing films at Telluride.  Since 2008 five (Fox) Searchlight films have played TFF and subsequently won the Academy Award for Best Picture:

2009: Slumdog Millionaire

2014: 12 Years a Slave

2015: Birdman

2018: The Shape of Water

2021: Nomadland (would have played TFF had the fest happened.  TFF did sponsor a screening or two)

Searchlight has also had a number of other films that were Best Picture nominated.  Some of those were TFF films, some not.  Since 2015:

2016: Brooklyn

2018: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

2019: The Favourite

2020: Jojo Rabbit

2022: Nightmare Alley

2023: The Banshees of Inisherin

2024: Poor Things

2025: A Complete Unknown

Looking at the possibilities from Searchlight we discover that there aren't many.  Three to be precise.  Here's the rundown for each listed in alphabetical order.  Participants in these films that have attended TFF previously are indicated with *.

In the Blink of an Eye.  Director: Andrew Stanton. Stars: Rashida Jones, Kate McKinnon, Daveed Diggs.  Release date: TBD.  IMDb description:

Three storylines, spanning thousands of years, intersect and reflect on hope, connection and the circle of life.

Frankly, I'd be surprised if this turns up.

Is This Thing On?  Director: Bradley Cooper.  Stars: Bradley Cooper, Laura Dern*, Will Arnett, Ciaran Hinds.  Release date: TBD.  IMDB description:

As their marriage unravels, Alex faces middle age and divorce, seeking new purpose in the New York comedy scene while wife Tess confronts the sacrifices she made for their family-forcing them to navigate co-parenting and identity.

I'm actually pretty excited about this film.  I am wary that it will be ready in time.  IMDb reports that it went into post-production in April...so...  Laura Dern's participation doesn't hurt its chances of making a TFF appearance as she has been a TFF regular for some time now.

Rental Family.  Director: Hikari.  Stars: Brendan Fraser, Takehiro Hira.  Release date: TBD.  IMDb description:

Japanese rental company hires struggling American actor in Tokyo. He plays various roles in clients' lives, embarking on an introspective journey through these unlikely experiences.

I actually think that Rental Family might be the most likely TFF entrant of the three.

Chances:

Rental Family 40%

Is This Thing On? 20%

In the Blink of an Eye 20%

Next week a look at Amazon/MGM.

VENICE ANNOUNCES OPENING FILM...DOES IT PLAY TELLURIDE?

The 82nd Venice Film Festival will open with Paolo Sorrentino's La Grazia (Grace).  Does that make it likely to also play at TFF #52?  That answer isn't clear at all.  Although I have frequently mentioned that the positioning of a film in the Venice schedule is crucial for any film that a distributor wants in both fests.  To make this double play a film has to be scheduled in Venice first two to three days.  Fourth day tops.  So you would think that Venice's opening night film would be a solid choice to make the way.  But...hold on...no so fast.  

I went back to 2010 and checked that scenario.  Here's what has opened Venice for each year since then with films that went on to cross the Atlantic to screen at T-ride indicated with a *.

2010: Black Swan*

2011: The Ides of March

2012: The Reluctant Fundamentalist

2013: Gravity*

2014: Birdman*

2015: Everest

2016: La La Land*

2017: Downsizing*

2018: First Man*

2019: The Truth

2020: The Ties

2021: Parallel Mothers

2022: White Noise

2023: Comandante

2024: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

As you can see, the Venice-Telluride scenario was very common from 2010-2018 with the Venice opener going west six times but beginning with 2019 the trend has not happened.

I can recall thinking that The Truth (19), Parallel Mothers (21) and White Noise (22) all had a pretty good shot at going to TFF and being wrong about them.

Muddying the predictive waters are the fact that director Paolo Sorrentino has recently been an invitee to Telluride.  In 2021 his The Hand of God did the Venice-Telluride thing with it playing Venice on Sept. 2 and then screening in Telluride the next day.

Additionally, La Grazia is being distributed in the U.S. by Mubi which has been a TFF player the last four years or so.

I'm inclined to think that the recent drought of Venice openers coming to Telluride isn't an accident.  It feels like the outcome of a deliberate choice to avoid that.  I have no real evidence other than the fact that the circumstance hasn't occurred for six straight years.

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Venice Thoughts / Neglia on Cannes and Telluride / A Look at Del Toro's Frankenstein / Interesting Comment to the Blog

VENICE THOUGHTS

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel posted a list of  "20 hot festival titles this fall" on Saturday.  The context for the list of films is within Ruimy's discussion of the Venice festival and the number of possible American films that could make that lineup.  Many of them are on my TFF #52 "watch list".  

Here's Ruimy's list with what I think are the most serious Telluride possibilities indicated with ***.

After the Hunt (Luca Guadagnino)***

One Battle After Another (Paul Thomas Anderson)

Untitled WH Thriller (Kathryn Bigelow)

Jay Kelly (Noah Baumbach)***

Caught Stealing (Darren Aronofsky)

Bugonia (Yorgos Lanthimos)***

The Smashing Machine (Benny Safdie)

The Way of the Wind (Terrence Malick)

Father Mother Brother Sister (Jim Jarmusch)

The Ballad of A Small Player (Edward Berger)***

Hamnet (Chloe Zhao)***

Frankenstein (Guillermo del Toro)***

A Big Bold Beautiful Journey (Kogonada)

Roofman (Derek Cianfrance)

At the Sea (Kornél Mundruczó)

The Drama (Kristofer Borgli)

The Lost Bus (Paul Greengrass)

Deliver Me From Nowhere (Scott Cooper)***

Huntington (John Patton Ford)

Is This Thing On? (Bradley Cooper)***

Here's the link to Jordan's post.

NEGLIA ON CANNES AND TELLURIDE

Matt Neglia, who heads up Next Best Picture, published via "X" on Friday a list of Cannes films that he thinks could also play Telluride.  It looks like this:

The Chronology Of Water

Die My Love

It Was Just An Accident

Left Handed Girl

The Love That Remains

The Mastermind

My Father’s Shadow

Nouvelle Vague

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Urchin

Young Mothers

 I have frequently mentioned Chronology of Water, Die My Love, It Was Just an Accident (or A Simple Accident), The Love That Remains, The Mastermind, and Young Mothers.  

Post Cannes I have warmed to the notion of Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent for T-ride.

I'm back and forth on Nouvelle Vague.  Linklater has, to the best of my knowledge, never been to The SHOW but with both Nouvelle Vague and Blue Moon...I could see a Linklater double bill and a possible tribute.  

Other films that Matt names, Left Handed Girl, The Father's Shadow and Urchin...we'll see.

I think there could be other Cannes players that make the trip.  Sirat and Eleanor the Great come to mind.  Remember, though, Matt was on the ground in France and probably has a better sense of what's going on as a result.

A LOOK AT DEL TORO'S FRANKENSTEIN

Netflix had what they call TUDUM.  It's their annual sort CinemaCon thing.  Anyway, as a part of that there was a presentation for Guillermo Del Toro's upcoming imagining of Frankenstein.  The film stars Oscar Isaac (as Victor Frankenstein) who was at the TUDUM presentation, as well as Christoph Waltz and Jacob Elordi and Mia Goth.  Netflix dropped a trailer for the film as a part of the event and then very quickly put it up online.  Here it is from YouTube:

I'm thinking Frankenstein could make a visit to TFF owing to Del Toro's success there in 2017 with The Shape of Water and Netflix's usually robust presence at The SHOW.  Del Toro presented The Devil's Backbone at Telluride in 2001.

INTERESTING COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Over the weekend some anonymous person posted a comment to last Thursday's MTFB.  It really caught my attention because it's a poem about me and the blog.  And whoever this is knows their stuff.  I approved the comment and you can find it on the 5/29/25 post.  I've also re-posted it here:

"In Oklahoma classrooms he was once all the rage, A master of drama, debate and stage. Now each Labor Day he ascends to the peak, Where cinephiles gather and the big stars all sneak. With a blog as his weapon, a hunch as his guide, He guesses the films they try hard to hide. Reads gossip like scripture, decodes all the lines.

The SHOW bosses in Berkeley grit teeth in dismay, As his summer "BEST BETS" always steal the day. But Michael just shrugs, lets critics all chatter-- To him it's just the puzzle that truly must matter. So let's raise a toast, with blog posts in hand, To the Teacher who does what few understand."

Thanks to the unknown author.

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New Baumbach Film Has a Date / Awards Watch's First Oscar Picks

NEW BAUMBACH FILM HAS A DATE

Noah Baumbach's latest film, Jay Kelly, has been dated for theatrical release by Netflix.  The film will be released into theaters on Nov. 14th.  Netflex will start streaming it on Dec. 5th. The film stars George Clooney and Adam Sandler. 

Several outlets reported on the announcement earlier this week with a couple making some noise about a possible play at Telluride.  Gregory Ellwood writing for The Playlist commented in his story that:

"It’s possible Netflix could hold “Kelly” to the New York Film Festival, but Clooney’s participation makes a Venice Film Festival bow much more likely. In theory, that means Telluride and TIFF screenings are up for discussion. Whatever the case, the streamer’s release strategy makes it clear they believe it’s a prime awards season contender."

Ellwood's complete story is here.

Additionally, Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel echoed the Telluride possibility writing:

“Jay Kelly” could very well have its world premiere at the Venice Film Festival in September. It will certainly be hitting the fall fests, and that could include Toronto, Telluride and New York."

Ruimy's post is linked here.

The Telluride pedigree is impressive.  Baumbach has had a presence at Telluride having screened Margot at the Wedding (2007), Frances Ha (2012) and Marriage Story (2019) at TFF.

Clooney was in town in 2011 with Alexander Payne's The Descendants.  Sandler was in T-ride in 2019 with the Safdie Brothers' Uncut Gems.  And a couple of members of the supporting cast have had a presence at TFF including Laura Dern (Marriage Story, Trial by Fire and Wild) and Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha and Lady Bird).

Finally, it's Netflix project and they have been well represented at the fest since 2015.

AWARDS WATCH'S FIRST OSCAR PICKS

Erik Anderson who runs Awards Watch has had his first set of predictions for 2025 going up this week.  He's got four categories up so far: Picture, Direction, Actress and Actor.  There are a couple of reasons to look at what Erik has to say.  First, as with other early Oscar picks highlighted here on the blog, I'll run through his picks and post a list below of possible TFF #52 titles.  Secondly, Erik makes a couple of interesting observations about Telluride in his Best actress/Actor predictions.

First, possible TFF #52 films from Erik's Best Picture predictions (in his order of mention):

Bugonia/Lanthimos (Focus)

Jay Kelly/Baumbach (Netflix)

Marty Supreme/J. Safdie (A24)

After the Hunt/Guadagnino (Amazon MGM)

Die, My Love/Ramsay (TBD)

Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper (20th Century)

The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger (Netflix)

Frankenstein/Del Toro (Netflix)

Hamnet/Zhzo (Focus)

Is This Thing On?/B. Cooper (Searchlight)

Pressure/Maras (Focus)

Anemone/Day-Lewis (Focus)

Eleanor the Great/Johansson (SPC)

The History of Sound/Hermanus (Mubi)

The Mastermind/Reichardt (Mubi)

Rental Family/Hikari (Searchlight)

You can find Erik's full list of Best Picture and Direction predictions here.

Meanwhile in his piece on Best Actress/Actor predictions he makes a couple of interesting statements.  The first relates to Rental Family and Is This Thing On?  From the post:

"I’m also keeping an eye on two Searchlight Pictures men, recent winner Brendan Fraser in Rental Family and Will Arnett in Is This Thing On?, the latter of which just recently wrapped production under Bradley Cooper’s direction. A Telluride or Toronto debut feels likely for one or both, if they’re ready for this year."

Later in the same piece, he writes this concerning Hamnet:

"The Focus Features adaptation of the Maggie O’Farrell fictional story of Agnes, the wife of William Shakespeare, as she struggles to come to terms with the loss of her only son, the titular Hamnet, will likely find its debut at Venice or Telluride (possibly screening at both) and setting the stage for her."

Interesting, eh?

Here's the link to the complete set of Best Actress/Actor predictions.

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Cannes' Director's Fortnight and Crtitics' Week / Is This Thing On? a Telluride Possibility? / MegaDoc at T-ride? / Posters for One Battle

CANNES DIRECTOR'S FORTNIGHT AND CRITICS' WEEK

The Cannes Film Festival announced further titles this week for its 78th edition.  Both the films for the Director's Fortnight Section as well Cannes' Critics' Week  were named.  However in both instances no films immediately jump out as Telluride possibilities.  See what you think.

Here are the films announced for the Director's Fortnight section:

“Enzo” (Robin Campillo) 

­”Amour Apocalypse” (Anne Émond)

­”Brand New Landscape” (Yuiga Danzuka) 

­”Classe Moyenne” (Anthony Cordier)

­”Dangerous Animals” (dir. Sean Byrne)

­”La Danse Renards” (Valéry Carnoy) 

­”L’Engloutie” (Louise Hémon) 

­”Les Filles Désir” (Prïncia Car) 

­”Girl on Edge” (Jinghao Zhou) 

­”Indomptables” (Thomas Ngijol)

­”Kokhuo” (Lee Sang-il)

­”Lucky Lu” (Lloyd Lee Choi) 

­”Militantropos” (Smith/Gorlova/Mozgovyi)

­”Miroirs No. 3″ (Christian Petzold)

­”La Mort N’Existe Pas” (Félix Dufour-Laperrière)

­”The President’s Cake” (Hasan Hadi)

“Que Ma Volonté Soit Faite” (Julia Kowalski)

“Sorry Baby” (Eva Victor)

And for Critics' Week:

COMPETITION

Imago – Dir. Déni Oumar Pitsaev

Kika – Dir. Alexe Poukine

Left-Handed Girl – Dir. Shih-Ching Tsou

Nino – Dir. Pauline Loquès

Reedland – Dir. Sven Bresser

Sleepless City – Dir. Guillermo Galoe

A Useful Ghost – Dir. Ratchapoom Boonbunchachoke

SPECIAL SCREENINGS

Adam’s Interest – Dir. Laura Wandel (OPENING)

Baise en ville – Dir. Martin Jauvat

Love Letters – Dir. Alice Douard

Dandelion’s Odyssey – Dir. Momoko Seto (CLOSING)

IS THIS THING ON? A TELLURIDE POSSIBILITY

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel reports that Bradley Cooper's next directorial effort, Is This Thing On? has wrapped production and:

"Searchlight is reportedly “really liking what they’ve seen so far,” and they’re planning a fall 2025 release. The movie is expected to make the rounds at fall festivals, including TIFF and Telluride."

Theis is the IMDb description for the film:

"A couple's marriage crumbles as they pursue separate paths - he explores stand-up comedy in NYC while she rediscovers herself. Together, they learn to redefine their relationship and family dynamics amid major life changes."

The film stars Cooper as well as Will Arnett (who co-wrote) and Laura Dern.  No release date has been offiically announced.

Here's the story from World of Reel.

MEGADOC AT T-RIDE?

World of Reel also reports that Mike Figgis' documentary about the making of Francis Ford Copplola's Megalopolis, MegaDoc may also be in play for TFF#52.  In his story from yesterday he quotes Figgis as saying:

"Last month, “MegaDoc” was privately screened in London for “friends” and “family,” and the event included a post-screening Q&A with Figgis, conducted by filmmaker Gareth Evans (“The Raid”). In case you’re wondering, Figgis says that he aims to officially premiere the film at “Venice or Telluride.” 

The entire story from World of reel can be found here.

POSTERS FOR ONE BATTLE AFTER THE OTHER

This week saw the release of posters for Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After the Other.  Up until last week this news wouldn't have likely made it into the Blog but with the release date being moved to Sept. 26th, well, a guy can dream, can't he?

Here's a couple:

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Late Look at Early Oscar Predix and TFF Possibilities / Kiss of the Spider Woman?

 LATE LOOK AT EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS AND TFF POSSIBILITIES

Joey Magidson who runs Awards Radar has posted his early Oscar predictions at his site.  I thought we'd mine the 25 titles he has listed as possible Best Picture nominees for guesses about TFF #52.

These are in the order that Magidson has them listed by likelihood of being nominated:

1) Deliver Me From Nowhere/S. Cooper

4) Jay Kelly/Baumbach

5) Marty Supreme/Safdie

6) Bugonia/Lanthimos

7) Hamnet/Zhao

9) Eleanor the Great/Johansson

11) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

16) Is This Thing On?/B. Cooper

17) After the Hunt/Guadagnino

19) Die, My Love/Ramsay

22) Frankenstein/Del Toro

23) Anemone/Day-Lewis

Magidson's complete list and predictions in other categories can be found here.

KISS OF THE SPIDER WOMAN?

Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions/LD Entertainment have announced and October 10th, 2025 release date for Bill Condon's Kiss of the Spider Woman.  This rendition is based on the Broadway musical adaptation.  The Oct. 10th date signals the intent that the distributors are serious about making a play for Awards season.

That intention makes you think that they will be aiming for some fall fest love such as TIFF and New York.  But maybe also Telluride.  Normally, its screening at Sundance in January would write it off as a TFF #52 selection, however, Telluride has made exceptions in recent years: The Outrun, Living andThe Report come to mind.

So perhaps I won't immediately reject the notion.

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Another Look at Early Oscar Predictions / First Look at One Battle After Another

ANOTHER LOOK AT EARLY OSCAR PREDICITONS

I decided to switch things up a bit and go back to early Oscar predictions as a way to mine for possible TFF #52 films.  I'll use that metric again on Thursday and then return to Cannes speculation next week.

Today we take a look at the 2026 Oscar predictions from Mark Johnson, The Awards Alchemist, housed at Awards Watch.  These are the films Mark has in the mix for Oscar that I feel are possible choices for Telluride:

After the Hunt/Amazon-MGM/Luca Guadagnino

Anemone/Focus/Ronan Day-Lewis

The Ballad of a Small Player/Netflix/Edward Berger

Bugonia/Focus/Yorgos Lanthimos

Deliver Me from Nowhere/Searchlight/Scott Cooper

Die My Love/No Distribution/Lynne Ramsay

Eleanor the Great/Sony Pictures Classics/Scarlett Johansson

Eternity/A24/David Freyne

Frankenstein/Netflix/Guillermo Del Toro

Hamnet/Focus/Chloe Zhao

The History of Sound/Focus/Oliver Hermanus

Is This Thing On?/Searchlight/Bradley Cooper

Jay Kelly/Netflix/Noah Baumbach

Marty Supreme/A24/Josh Safdie

Pressure/Focus/Anthony Maras

Mark's complete look at the 2026 Oscars is linked here.

FIRST LOOK AT ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

We got a brief glimpse of Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another with a teaser that dropped last Thursday.  I got interested in the new PTA film after its release date was moved to September 26th which means that it could play Telluride (or Venice or Toronto or all of them or none of them).  The teaser was released as a morsel to chew on prior to the release of what is expected to be a full trailer sometime this week.  I'll be eagerly anticipating that and hope to have it here in my next post.

Here's the teaser from YouTube:

More on Thursday...

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